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Background An increased risk of myocarditis or pericarditis after priming with mRNA Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines has been shown but information on the risk post-booster is limited. With the now high prevalence of prior Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, we assessed the effect of prior infection on the vaccine risk and the risk from COVID-19 reinfection. Methods and findings We conducted a self-controlled case series analysis of hospital admissions for myocarditis or pericarditis in England between 22 February 2021 and 6 February 2022 in the 50 million individuals eligible to receive the adenovirus-vectored vaccine (ChAdOx1-S) for priming or an mRNA vaccine (BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273) for priming or boosting. Myocarditis and pericarditis admissions were extracted from the Secondary Uses Service (SUS) database in England and vaccination histories from the National Immunisation Management System (NIMS); prior infections were obtained from the UK Health Security Agency's Second-Generation Surveillance Systems. The relative incidence (RI) of admission within 0 to 6 and 7 to 14 days of vaccination compared with periods outside these risk windows stratified by age, dose, and prior SARS-CoV-2 infection for individuals aged 12 to 101 years was estimated. The RI within 27 days of an infection was assessed in the same model. There were 2,284 admissions for myocarditis and 1,651 for pericarditis in the study period. Elevated RIs were only observed in 16- to 39-year-olds 0 to 6 days postvaccination, mainly in males for myocarditis. Both mRNA vaccines showed elevated RIs after first, second, and third doses with the highest RIs after a second dose 5.34 (95% confidence interval (CI) [3.81, 7.48]; p < 0.001) for BNT162b2 and 56.48 (95% CI [33.95, 93.97]; p < 0.001) for mRNA-1273 compared with 4.38 (95% CI [2.59, 7.38]; p < 0.001) and 7.88 (95% CI [4.02, 15.44]; p < 0.001), respectively, after a third dose. For ChAdOx1-S, an elevated RI was only observed after a first dose, RI 5.23 (95% CI [2.48, 11.01]; p < 0.001). An elevated risk of admission for pericarditis was only observed 0 to 6 days after a second dose of mRNA-1273 vaccine in 16 to 39 year olds, RI 4.84 (95% CI [1.62, 14.01]; p = 0.004). RIs were lower in those with a prior SARS-CoV-2 infection than in those without, 2.47 (95% CI [1.32,4.63]; p = 0.005) versus 4.45 (95% [3.12, 6.34]; p = 0.001) after a second BNT162b2 dose, and 19.07 (95% CI [8.62, 42.19]; p < 0.001) versus 37.2 (95% CI [22.18, 62.38]; p < 0.001) for mRNA-1273 (myocarditis and pericarditis outcomes combined). RIs 1 to 27 days postinfection were elevated in all ages and were marginally lower for breakthrough infections, 2.33 (95% CI [1.96, 2.76]; p < 0.001) compared with 3.32 (95% CI [2.54, 4.33]; p < 0.001) in vaccine-naïve individuals respectively. Conclusions We observed an increased risk of myocarditis within the first week after priming and booster doses of mRNA vaccines, predominantly in males under 40 years with the highest risks after a second dose. The risk difference between the second and the third doses was particularly marked for the mRNA-1273 vaccine that contains half the amount of mRNA when used for boosting than priming. The lower risk in those with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, and lack of an enhanced effect post-booster, does not suggest a spike-directed immune mechanism. Research to understand the mechanism of vaccine-associated myocarditis and to document the risk with bivalent mRNA vaccines is warranted., Author(s): Julia Stowe 1, Elizabeth Miller 2,*, Nick Andrews 1, Heather J. Whitaker 1 Introduction The rapid development and global deployment of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines based on mRNA [...]

The first confirmed cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the United Kingdom were identified at the end of January 2020. As cases increased across all regions, surveillance data indicated that [...]

Background The Eliminate Yellow fever Epidemics (EYE) strategy was launched in 2017 in response to the resurgence of yellow fever in Africa and the Americas. The strategy relies on several vaccination activities, including preventive mass vaccination campaigns (PMVCs). However, to what extent PMVCs are associated with a decreased risk of outbreak has not yet been quantified. Methods and findings We used the self-controlled case series (SCCS) method to assess the association between the occurrence of yellow fever outbreaks and the implementation of PMVCs at the province level in the African endemic region. As all time-invariant confounders are implicitly controlled for in the SCCS method, this method is an alternative to classical cohort or case-control study designs when the risk of residual confounding is high, in particular confounding by indication. The locations and dates of outbreaks were identified from international epidemiological records, and information on PMVCs was provided by coordinators of vaccination activities and international funders. The study sample consisted of provinces that were both affected by an outbreak and targeted for a PMVC between 2005 and 2018. We compared the incidence of outbreaks before and after the implementation of a PMVC. The sensitivity of our estimates to a range of assumptions was explored, and the results of the SCCS method were compared to those obtained through a retrospective cohort study design. We further derived the number of yellow fever outbreaks that have been prevented by PMVCs. The study sample consisted of 33 provinces from 11 African countries. Among these, the first outbreak occurred during the pre-PMVC period in 26 (79%) provinces, and during the post-PMVC period in 7 (21%) provinces. At the province level, the post-PMVC period was associated with an 86% reduction (95% CI 66% to 94%, p < 0.001) in the risk of outbreak as compared to the pre-PMVC period. This negative association between exposure to PMVCs and outbreak was robustly observed across a range of sensitivity analyses, especially when using quantitative estimates of vaccination coverage as an alternative exposure measure, or when varying the observation period. In contrast, the results of the cohort-style analyses were highly sensitive to the choice of covariates included in the model. Based on the SCCS results, we estimated that PMVCs were associated with a 34% (95% CI 22% to 45%) reduction in the number of outbreaks in Africa from 2005 to 2018. A limitation of our study is the fact that it does not account for potential time-varying confounders, such as changing environmental drivers of yellow fever and possibly improved disease surveillance. Conclusions In this study, we provide new empirical evidence of the high preventive impact of PMVCs on yellow fever outbreaks. This study illustrates that the SCCS method can be advantageously applied at the population level in order to evaluate a public health intervention., Author(s): Kévin Jean 1,2,3,*, Hanaya Raad 1,2,4, Katy A. M. Gaythorpe 3, Arran Hamlet 3, Judith E. Mueller 2,4, Dan Hogan 5, Tewodaj Mengistu 5, Heather J. Whitaker 6,7, Tini [...]