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Annual North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) counts are frequently modeled as a Poisson process with a state-dependent rate. We provide a lower bound on the forecasting error of this class of models. Remarkably we find that this bound is already saturated by a simple linear model that explains roughly 50 percent of the annual variance using three climate indices: El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO), average sea surface temperature (SST) in the main development region (MDR) of the North Atlantic and the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) atmospheric circulation index (Kozar et al 2012). As expected under the bound, increased model complexity does not help: we demonstrate that allowing for quadratic and interaction terms, or using an Elastic Net to forecast TC counts using global SST maps, produces no detectable increase in skill. We provide evidence that observed TC counts are consistent with a Poisson process, limiting possible improvements in TC modeling by relaxing the Poisson assumption., Comment: 13 pages, 2 figures, submitted to Geophysical Research Letters

Perhaps the greatest challenge for fundamental theories based on compactification from extra dimensions is accommodating a period of accelerated cosmological expansion. Previous studies have identified constraints imposed by the existence of dark energy for two overlapping classes of compactified theories: (1) those in which the higher dimensional picture satisfies certain metric properties selected to reproduce known low energy phenomenology; or (2) those derived from string theory assuming they satisfy the Swampland conjectures. For either class, the analyses showed that dark energy is only possible if it takes the form of quintessence. In this paper, we explore the consequences for theories that belong to both classes and show that the joint constraints are highly restrictive, leaving few options., Comment: 12 pages, 3 figures

We compute the scalar gravitational radiation from a binary pulsar system in the simplest model that exhibits the Vainshtein mechanism. The mechanism is successful in screening the effect from scalar fields conformally coupled to matter, although gravitational radiation is less suppressed relative to its general relativity predictions than static fifth forces effects within the pulsar system. This is due to a combination of two effects: firstly the existence of monopole and dipole radiation; secondly the Vainshtein suppression comes from the hierarchy of scales between the inverse frequency scale and the Vainshtein radius, rather than the orbital radius of the pulsar system. Extensions of these results will have direct relevance to infrared modifications of gravity, such as massive gravity theories, which are known to exhibit a Vainshtein mechanism. Generalization to Galileon models with higher order interactions are likely to provide stronger constraints., Comment: minor revisions to match published version in prd

In a recent publication, we proposed that inflationary perturbation theory can be reformulated in terms of a probability transport equation, whose moments determine the correlation properties of the primordial curvature perturbation. In this paper we generalize this formulation to an arbitrary number of fields. We deduce ordinary differential equations for the evolution of the moments of zeta on superhorizon scales, which can be used to obtain an evolution equation for the dimensionless bispectrum, fNL. Our equations are covariant in field space and allow identification of the source terms responsible for evolution of fNL. In a model with M scalar fields, the number of numerical integrations required to obtain solutions of these equations scales like O(M^3). The performance of the moment transport algorithm means that numerical calculations with M >> 1 fields are straightforward. We illustrate this performance with a numerical calculation of fNL in Nflation models containing M ~ 10^2 fields, finding agreement with existing analytic calculations. We comment briefly on extensions of the method beyond the slow-roll approximation, or to calculate higher order parameters such as gNL., Comment: 23 pages, plus appendices and references; 4 figures. v2: incorrect statements regarding numerical delta N removed from Sec. 4.3. Minor modifications elsewhere

In the decoupling limit, the DGP model reduces to the theory of a scalar field pi, with interactions including a specific cubic self-interaction - the galileon term. This term, and its quartic and quintic generalizations, can be thought of as arising from a probe 3-brane in a 5-dimensional bulk with Lovelock terms on the brane and in the bulk. We study multi-field generalizations of the galileon, and extend this probe brane view to higher co-dimensions. We derive an extremely restrictive theory of multiple galileon fields, interacting through a quartic term controlled by a single coupling, and trace its origin to the induced brane terms coming from Lovelock invariants in the higher co-dimension bulk. We explore some properties of this theory, finding de Sitter like self accelerating solutions. These solutions have ghosts if and only if the flat space theory does not have ghosts. Finally, we prove a general non-renormalization theorem: multi-field galileons are not renormalized quantum mechanically to any loop in perturbation theory., Comment: 34 pages, 2 figures. v2 typos corrected, comments added, version appearing in PRD

We study k-defects - topological defects in theories with more than two derivatives and second-order equations of motion - and describe some striking ways in which these defects both resemble and differ from their analogues in canonical scalar field theories. We show that, for some models, the homotopy structure of the vacuum manifold is insufficient to establish the existence of k-defects, in contrast to the canonical case. These results also constrain certain families of DBI instanton solutions in the 4-dimensional effective theory. We then describe a class of k-defect solutions, which we dub doppelgangers, that precisely match the field profile and energy density of their canonical scalar field theory counterparts. We give a complete characterization of Lagrangians which admit doppelganger domain walls. By numerically computing the fluctuation eigenmodes about domain wall solutions, we find different spectra for doppelgangers and canonical walls, allowing us to distinguish between k-defects and the canonical walls they mimic. We search for doppelgangers for cosmic strings by numerically constructing solutions of DBI and canonical scalar field theories. Despite investigating several examples, we are unable to find doppelganger cosmic strings, hence the existence of doppelgangers for defects with codimension >1 remains an open question., Comment: 27 pages, 4 figures

We recently presented a series of dark energy theorems that place constraints on the equation of state of dark energy ($\wdark$), the ime-variation of Newton's constant ($\dot G$), and the violation of energy conditions in theories with extra dimensions. In this paper, we explore how current and future measurements of $\wdark$ and $\dot G$ can be used to place tight limits on large classes of these theories (including some of the most well-motivated examples) independent of the size of the extra dimensions. As an example, we show that models with conformally Ricci-flat metrics obeying the null energy condition (a common ansatz for Kaluza-Klein and string constructions) are highly constrained by current ata and may be ruled out entirely by future dark energy and pulsar observations., Comment: 27 pages, 11 figures.

In hybrid inflationary models, inflation ends by a sudden instability associated with a steep ridge in the potential. Here we argue that this feature can generate a large contribution to the curvature perturbation on observable scales. This contribution is almost scale-invariant but highly non-Gaussian. The degree of non-Gaussianity can exceed current observational bounds, unless the inflationary scale is extremely low or the hybrid potential contains very large coupling constants. Non-linear effects on small scales may quench the non-Gaussian signal, and while we find no compelling evidence that this occurs, full lattice simulations are required to definitively address this issue. Note added: We now believe that nonlinear effects will invalidate the original computation in this paper essentially instantaneously after the short-wavelength modes reach the minimum of their potential. This means that the mechanism described in this paper will not lead to appreciatable curvature perturbations on long wavelengths, and no useful constraints on hybrid inflation will result. We have inserted a brief calculation on p2 of this manuscript to explain this fact, but have otherwise left the manuscript unchanged., Comment: 26pp, 2 figs v2: note added (see abstract)

We present a novel method for calculating the primordial non-Gaussianity produced by super-horizon evolution during inflation. Our method evolves the distribution of coarse-grained inflationary field values using a transport equation. We present simple evolution equations for the moments of this distribution, such as the variance and skewness. This method possesses some advantages over existing techniques. Among them, it cleanly separates multiple sources of primordial non-Gaussianity, and is computationally efficient when compared with popular alternatives, such as the "delta N" framework. We adduce numerical calculations demonstrating that our new method offers good agreement with those already in the literature. We focus on two fields and the fNL parameter, but we expect our method will generalize to multiple scalar fields and to moments of arbitrarily high order. We present our expressions in a field-space covariant form which we postulate to be valid for any number of fields., Comment: 24 pages, 4 colour figures; uses iopart.cls. v2: Erroneous statements about delta N method in Sec. 2 removed. Correction to gauge transformation in Eq. (12) brings numerical results of Sec. 4 into better agreement with the delta N formula. Conclusions remain the same. v3: minor changes

We consider how accelerated expansion, whether due to inflation or dark energy, imposes strong constraints on fundamental theories obtained by compactification from higher dimensions. For theories that obey the null energy condition (NEC), we find that inflationary cosmology is impossible for a wide range of compactifications; and a dark energy phase consistent with observations is only possible if both Newton's gravitational constant and the dark energy equation-of-state vary with time. If the theory violates the NEC, inflation and dark energy are only possible if the NEC-violating elements are inhomogeneously distributed in thecompact dimensions and vary with time in precise synchrony with the matter and energy density in the non-compact dimensions. Although our proofs are derived assuming general relativity applies in both four and higher dimensions and certain forms of metrics, we argue that similar constraints must apply for more general compactifications., Comment: 26 pages, 1 figure. v2: reference added, typos corrected

We describe a new family of thin-wall instantons, with negative tension bubble walls, that mediate tunneling between Minkowski or de Sitter vacua. Some of these instantons can have exponentially enhanced tunneling rates, and would dominate the Euclidean path integral, representing a severe non-perturbative instability in any theory which supports them. We give two constructions of these instantons in theories which are perturbatively stable, but violate the null energy condition. One construction uses a scalar field theory with higher-derivative kinetic term, and is similar to the Coleman-de Luccia positive tension instanton. The other construction employs a negative-tension boundary arising from Z_2 orbifolding: it resembles a "bubble of nothing" which nucleates and grows, consuming the surrounding de Sitter or Minkowski spacetime. We explain how the spectral flow for fluctutations about the thin-wall tunneling solutions automatically protects causality, for both positive and negative tension instantons. We comment briefly on the relation of these solutions to a Kalzua-Klein "bubble of nothing," cosmological models relying on ghost condensates, and string theory orientifolds., Comment: PDFLaTeX, 43pp v2: new appendix, references added

We present a systematic study of the cosmological billiard structures of Einstein-p-form systems in which all spatial directions are compactified on a manifold of nontrivial topology. This is achieved for all maximally oxidised theories associated with split real forms, for all possible compactifications as defined by the de Rham cohomology of the internal manifold. In each case, we study the Coxeter group that controls the dynamics for energy scales below the Planck scale as well as the relevant billiard region. We compare and contrast them with the Weyl group and fundamental domain that emerge from the general BKL analysis. For generic topologies we find a variety of possibilities: (i) The group may or may not be a simplex Coxeter group; (ii) The billiard region may or may not be a fundamental domain. When it is not a fundamental domain, it can be described as a sequence of pairwise adjacent chambers, known as a gallery, and the reflections in the billiard walls provide a non-standard presentation of the Coxeter group. We find that it is only when the Coxeter group is a simplex Coxeter group, and the billiard region is a fundamental domain, that there is a correspondence between billiard walls and simple roots of a Kac-Moody algebra, as in the general BKL analysis. For each compactification we also determine whether or not the resulting theory exhibits chaotic dynamics., Comment: 51 pages. Typos corrected. References added. Submitted for publication

We consider the signatures of a population of primordial black holes (PBHs) in future observations of 21cm radiation from neutral hydrogen at high redshift. We focus on PBHs in the mass range $5 \times 10^{10} kg \lesssim M_{PBH} \lesssim 10^{14} kg$, which primarily influence the intergalactic medium (IGM) by heating from direct Hawking radiation. Our computation takes into account the black hole graybody factors and the detailed energy dependence of photon and e+/- absorption by the IGM. We find that for black holes with initial masses between $5 \times 10^{11} kg \lesssim M_{PBH} \lesssim 10^{14} kg$, the signal mimics that of a decaying dark matter species. For black holes in the range $5 \times 10^{10} kg \lesssim M_{PBH} \lesssim 5 \times 10^{11} kg$, the late stages of evaporation produce a characteristic feature in the 21cm brightness temperature that provides a unique signature of the black hole population. If no signal is observed, then 21cm observations will provide significantly better constraints on PBHs in the mass range $5 \times 10^{10} kg \lesssim M_{PBH} \lesssim 10^{12} kg$ than are currently available from the diffuse $\gamma$-ray background., Comment: 15 pages, 8 figures v2: references added, typos corrected, minor changes

We give detailed proofs of several new no-go theorems for constructing flat four-dimensional accelerating universes from warped dimensional reduction. These new theorems improve upon previous ones by weakening the energy conditions, by including time-dependent compactifications, and by treating accelerated expansion that is not precisely de Sitter. We show that de Sitter expansion violates the higher-dimensional null energy condition (NEC) if the compactification manifold M is one-dimensional, if its intrinsic Ricci scalar R vanishes everywhere, or if R and the warp function satisfy a simple limit condition. If expansion is not de Sitter, we establish threshold equation-of-state parameters w below which accelerated expansion must be transient. Below the threshold w there are bounds on the number of e-foldings of expansion. If M is one-dimensional or R everywhere vanishing, exceeding the bound implies the NEC is violated. If R does not vanish everywhere on M, exceeding the bound implies the strong energy condition (SEC) is violated. Observationally, the w thresholds indicate that experiments with finite resolution in w can cleanly discriminate between different models which satisfy or violate the relevant energy conditions., Comment: v2: corrections, references added

We describe new no-go theorems for producing four-dimensional accelerating universes from warped dimensional reduction. The new theorems improve upon previous results by including dynamical extra dimensions and by treating four-dimensional universes that are not precisely de Sitter. The theorems show there exists a threshold four-dimensional equation-of-state parameter w below which the number of e-foldings of expansion is bounded, and give expressions for the maximum number of allowed e-foldings. In the generic case, the bound must be satisfied if the higher-dimensional theory satisfies the strong energy condition. If the compactification manifold M is one-dimensional, or if its (intrinsic) Ricci scalar R is identically zero, then the bound must be satisfied if the higher-dimensional theory satisfies the null energy condition., Comment: v1: 4pp v2: references added v3: minor typo in (12a,b) corrected v4: minor corrections v5: re-organized

Large-scale coherent magnetic fields are observed in galaxies and clusters, but their ultimate origin remains a mystery. We reconsider the prospects for primordial magnetogenesis by a cosmic string network. We show that the magnetic flux produced by long strings has been overestimated in the past, and give improved estimates. We also compute the fields created by the loop population, and find that it gives the dominant contribution to the total magnetic field strength on present-day galactic scales. We present numerical results obtained by evolving semi-analytic models of string networks (including both one-scale and velocity-dependent one-scale models) in a Lambda-CDM cosmology, including the forces and torques on loops from Hubble redshifting, dynamical friction, and gravitational wave emission. Our predictions include the magnetic field strength as a function of correlation length, as well as the volume covered by magnetic fields. We conclude that string networks could account for magnetic fields on galactic scales, but only if coupled with an efficient dynamo amplification mechanism., Comment: 10 figures; v3: small typos corrected to match published version. MagnetiCS, the code described in paper, is available at http://markcwyman.com/ and http://www.damtp.cam.ac.uk/user/dhw22/code/index.html

We study cosmological perturbations produced by the most general two-derivative actions involving two scalar fields, coupled to Einstein gravity, with an arbitrary field space metric, that admit scaling solutions. For contracting universes, we show that scale-invariant adiabatic perturbations can be produced continuously as modes leave the horizon for any equation of state parameter $w \ge 0$. The corresponding background solutions are unstable, which we argue is a universal feature of contracting models that yield scale-invariant spectra. For expanding universes, we find that nearly scale-invariant adiabatic perturbation spectra can only be produced for $w \approx -1$, and that the corresponding scaling solutions are attractors. The presence of a nontrivial metric on field space is a crucial ingredient in our results., Comment: 23 pages, oversight in perturbations calculation corrected, conclusions for expanding models modified

We show that the existence of cosmic strings can be strongly constrained by the next generation of gravitational lensing surveys at radio frequencies. We focus on cosmic string loops, which simulations suggest would be far more numerous than long (horizon-sized) strings. Using simple models of the loop population and minimal assumptions about the lensing cross section per loop, we estimate the optical depth to lensing and show that extant radio surveys such as CLASS have already ruled out a portion of the cosmic string model parameter space. Future radio interferometers, such as LOFAR and especially SKA, may constrain $G\mu/c^2 < 10^{-9}$ in some regions of parameter space, outperforming current constraints from pulsar timing and the CMB by up to two orders of magnitude. This method relies on direct detections of cosmic strings, and so is less sensitive to the theoretical uncertainties in string network evolution that weaken other constraints., Comment: 20 pages, 3 figures. v3: Some clarification of text, revised figure, appendix added. Submitted to Phys. Rev. D

Compactification can control chaotic Mixmaster behavior in gravitational systems with p-form matter: we consider this in light of the connection between supergravity models and Kac-Moody algebras. We show that different compactifications define "mutations" of the algebras associated with the noncompact theories. We list the algebras obtained in this way, and find novel examples of wall systems determined by Lorentzian (but not hyperbolic) algebras. Cosmological models with a smooth pre-big bang phase require that chaos is absent: we show that compactification alone cannot eliminate chaos in the simplest compactifications of the heterotic string on a Calabi-Yau, or M theory on a manifold of G_2 holonomy., Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures v2: changed terminology (hyperbolic,strictly hyperbolic) --> (Lorentzian,hyperbolic) to accord with standard practice. X"(10) identified as E7^{+++}. References added. v3: Journal version (accepted as a CQG Fast Track Communication)

We study the pair creation of point-particles and strings in a time-dependent, weak gravitational field. We find that, for massive string states, there are surprising and significant differences between the string and point-particle results. Central to our approach is the fact that a weakly curved spacetime can be represented by a coherent state of gravitons, and therefore we employ standard techniques in string perturbation theory. String and point-particle pairs are created through tree-level interactions between the background gravitons. In particular, we focus on the production of excited string states and perform explicit calculations of the production of a set of string states of arbitrary excitation level. The differences between the string and point-particle results may contain important lessons for the pair production of strings in the strong gravitational fields of interest in cosmology and black hole physics., Comment: 26 pages v2: References added

We consider the effect of compactification of extra dimensions on the onset of classical chaotic "Mixmaster" behavior during cosmic contraction. Assuming a universe that is well-approximated as a four-dimensional Friedmann-Robertson--Walker model (with negligible Kaluza-Klein excitations) when the contraction phase begins, we identify compactifications that allow a smooth contraction and delay the onset of chaos until arbitrarily close the big crunch. These compactifications are defined by the de Rham cohomology (Betti numbers) and Killing vectors of the compactification manifold. We find compactifications that control chaos in vacuum Einstein gravity, as well as in string theories with N = 1 supersymmetry and M-theory. In models where chaos is controlled in this way, the universe can remain homogeneous and flat until it enters the quantum gravity regime. At this point, the classical equations leading to chaotic behavior can no longer be trusted, and quantum effects may allow a smooth approach to the big crunch and transition into a subsequent expanding phase. Our results may be useful for constructing cosmological models with contracting phases, such as the ekpyrotic/cyclic and pre-big bang models., Comment: 1 figure. v2/v3: minor typos corrected

We consider cosmological models with a scalar field with equation of state $w\ge 1$ that contract towards a big crunch singularity, as in recent cyclic and ekpyrotic scenarios. We show that chaotic mixmaster oscillations due to anisotropy and curvature are suppressed, and the contraction is described by a homogeneous and isotropic Friedmann equation if $w>1$. We generalize the results to theories where the scalar field couples to p-forms and show that there exists a finite value of $w$, depending on the p-forms, such that chaotic oscillations are suppressed. We show that $Z_2$ orbifold compactification also contributes to suppressing chaotic behavior. In particular, chaos is avoided in contracting heterotic M-theory models if $w>1$ at the crunch., Comment: 25 pages, 2 figures, minor changes, references added