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8. Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot

Author

Riahi, K., Bertram, C., Huppmann, D., Rogelj, J., Bosetti, V., Cabardos, A.-M., Deppermann, A., Drouet, L., Frank, S., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Harmsen, M., Hasegawa, T., Krey, V., Luderer, G., Paroussos, L., Schaeffer, R., Weitzel, M., van der Zwaan, B., Vrontisi, Z., Longa, F.D., Després, J., Fosse, F., Fragkiadakis, K., Gusti, M., Humpenöder, F., Keramidas, K., Kishimoto, P., Kriegler, E., Meinshausen, M., Nogueira, L.P., Oshiro, K., Popp, A., Rochedo, P.R.R., Unlu, G., van Ruijven, B., Takakura, J., Tavoni, M., van Vuuren, D., Zakeri, B., Riahi, K., Bertram, C., Huppmann, D., Rogelj, J., Bosetti, V., Cabardos, A.-M., Deppermann, A., Drouet, L., Frank, S., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Harmsen, M., Hasegawa, T., Krey, V., Luderer, G., Paroussos, L., Schaeffer, R., Weitzel, M., van der Zwaan, B., Vrontisi, Z., Longa, F.D., Després, J., Fosse, F., Fragkiadakis, K., Gusti, M., Humpenöder, F., Keramidas, K., Kishimoto, P., Kriegler, E., Meinshausen, M., Nogueira, L.P., Oshiro, K., Popp, A., Rochedo, P.R.R., Unlu, G., van Ruijven, B., Takakura, J., Tavoni, M., van Vuuren, D., and Zakeri, B.

Abstract

Global emissions scenarios play a critical role in the assessment of strategies to mitigate climate change. The current scenarios, however, are criticized because they feature strategies with pronounced overshoot of the global temperature goal, requiring a long-term repair phase to draw temperatures down again through net-negative emissions. Some impacts might not be reversible. Hence, we explore a new set of net-zero CO2 emissions scenarios with limited overshoot. We show that upfront investments are needed in the near term for limiting temperature overshoot but that these would bring long-term economic gains. Our study further identifies alternative configurations of net-zero CO2 emissions systems and the roles of different sectors and regions for balancing sources and sinks. Even without net-negative emissions, CO2 removal is important for accelerating near-term reductions and for providing an anthropogenic sink that can offset the residual emissions in sectors that are hard to abate.

Published
2021

9. Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change

Author

Drouet, L., Bosetti, V., Padoan, S.A., Aleluia Reis, L., Bertram, C., Dalla Longa, F., Després, J., Emmerling, J., Fosse, F., Fragkiadakis, K., Frank, S., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Harmsen, M., Krey, V., Oshiro, K., Nogueira, L.P., Paroussos, L., Piontek, F., Riahi, K., Rochedo, P.R.R., Schaeffer, R., Takakura, J., van der Wijst, K.-I., van der Zwaan, B., van Vuuren, D., Vrontisi, Z., Weitzel, M., Zakeri, B., Tavoni, M., Drouet, L., Bosetti, V., Padoan, S.A., Aleluia Reis, L., Bertram, C., Dalla Longa, F., Després, J., Emmerling, J., Fosse, F., Fragkiadakis, K., Frank, S., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Harmsen, M., Krey, V., Oshiro, K., Nogueira, L.P., Paroussos, L., Piontek, F., Riahi, K., Rochedo, P.R.R., Schaeffer, R., Takakura, J., van der Wijst, K.-I., van der Zwaan, B., van Vuuren, D., Vrontisi, Z., Weitzel, M., Zakeri, B., and Tavoni, M.

Abstract

Mitigation pathways exploring end-of-century temperature targets often entail temperature overshoot. Little is known about the additional climate risks generated by overshooting temperature. Here we assessed the benefits of limiting overshoot. We computed the probabilistic impacts for different warming targets and overshoot levels on the basis of an ensemble of integrated assessment models. We explored both physical and macroeconomic impacts, including persistent and non-persistent climate impacts. We found that temperature overshooting affects the likelihood of many critical physical impacts, such as those associated with heat extremes. Limiting overshoot reduces risk in the right tail of the distribution, in particular for low-temperature targets where larger overshoots arise as a way to lower short-term mitigation costs. We also showed how, after mid-century, overshoot leads to both higher mitigation costs and economic losses from the additional impacts. The study highlights the need to include climate risk analysis in low-carbon pathways.

Published
2021

10. ENGAGE Global Scenarios

Author

Riahi, K., Betram, C., Drouet, L., Hasegawa, T., Dalla Longa, F., Desprès, J., Fosse, F., Fragkiadakis, K., Fricko, O., Gusti, M., Humpenöder, F., Keramidas, K., Kishimoto, P., Kriegler, E., Nogueira, L.P., Oshiro, K., Popp, A., Rochedo, P.R.R., Takakura, J., Ünlü, G., van Ruijven, B., van Vuuren, D., Zakeri, B., Bosetti, V., Cabardos, A.-M., Deppermann, A., de Boer, H.-S., Emmerling, J., Frank, S., Fujimori, S., Harmsen, M., Havlik, P., Hilaire, J., Huppmann, D., Krey, V., Luderer, G., Malik, A., Meinshausen, M., Ochi, Y., Paroussos, L., Rogelj, J., Saygin, D., Schaeffer, R., Tavoni, M., van der Zwaan, B., Vrontisi, Z., Weitzel, M., Riahi, K., Betram, C., Drouet, L., Hasegawa, T., Dalla Longa, F., Desprès, J., Fosse, F., Fragkiadakis, K., Fricko, O., Gusti, M., Humpenöder, F., Keramidas, K., Kishimoto, P., Kriegler, E., Nogueira, L.P., Oshiro, K., Popp, A., Rochedo, P.R.R., Takakura, J., Ünlü, G., van Ruijven, B., van Vuuren, D., Zakeri, B., Bosetti, V., Cabardos, A.-M., Deppermann, A., de Boer, H.-S., Emmerling, J., Frank, S., Fujimori, S., Harmsen, M., Havlik, P., Hilaire, J., Huppmann, D., Krey, V., Luderer, G., Malik, A., Meinshausen, M., Ochi, Y., Paroussos, L., Rogelj, J., Saygin, D., Schaeffer, R., Tavoni, M., van der Zwaan, B., Vrontisi, Z., and Weitzel, M.

Abstract

This data set includes global climate change mitigation scenarios as summarized by Riahi et al., 2021. The scenarios are developed as part of the ENGAGE project and were assessed in terms of the their investment implications (Bertram et al., 2021), their land-use dynamics (Hasegawa et al., 2021) as we all as with respect to their costs and benefits (Drouret et al., 2021). The scenarios include a current national policies scenario and an NDC scenario that depict relevant near-term GHG emission tends and targets. In the long-term, two types of CO2 emission budgets are implemented, so called “net-zero budgets” and “end-of-century” budgets. The “net-zero-budget” scenarios assume climate policies that limit the remaining cumulative CO2 emissions until net zero CO2 emissions are reached. These scenarios limit the temperature overshoot and do not rely on global net-negative CO2 emissions to keep warming below the intended temperature limit. In contrast, the “end-of-century budget” scenarios assume long-term climate policies that limit cumulative CO2 emissions over the full course of the 21st century. Depending on the availability of carbon dioxide removal options, these scenarios may comprise high temperature overshoot and global net negative CO2 emissions in the second half of the century. The near-term dimension of current national policies until 2020 or NDCs until 2030 is then combined with reaching the net-zero and full-century CO2 emissions budgets. To cover a relevant range of temperature outcomes (which in addition to the budgets themselves also determined by mitigation of non-CO2 GHG and aerosol emissions), the budgets are varied between 200 and 3000 GtCO2 in steps of 50 – 500 GtCO2. The data is available for download at the ENGAGE Scenario Explorer. The license permits use of the scenario ensemble for scientific research and science communication, but restricts redistribution of substantial parts of the data. Please refer to the FAQ and legal code for more informa

Published
2021

11. Energy system developments and investments in the decisive decade for the Paris Agreement goals

Author

Bertram, C., Riahi, K., Hilaire, J., Bosetti, V., Drouet, L., Fricko, O., Malik, A., Nogueira, L.P., van der Zwaan, B., van Ruijven, B., van Vuuren, D., Weitzel, M., Dalla Longa, F., de Boer, H.-S., Emmerling, J., Fosse, F., Fragkiadakis, K., Harmsen, M., Keramidas, K., Kishimoto, P.N., Kriegler, E., Krey, V., Paroussos, L., Saygin, D., Vrontisi, Z., Luderer, G., Bertram, C., Riahi, K., Hilaire, J., Bosetti, V., Drouet, L., Fricko, O., Malik, A., Nogueira, L.P., van der Zwaan, B., van Ruijven, B., van Vuuren, D., Weitzel, M., Dalla Longa, F., de Boer, H.-S., Emmerling, J., Fosse, F., Fragkiadakis, K., Harmsen, M., Keramidas, K., Kishimoto, P.N., Kriegler, E., Krey, V., Paroussos, L., Saygin, D., Vrontisi, Z., and Luderer, G.

Abstract

The Paris Agreement does not only stipulate to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C, it also calls for 'making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions'. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand the implications of climate targets for energy systems and quantify the associated investment requirements in the coming decade. A meaningful analysis must however consider the near-term mitigation requirements to avoid the overshoot of a temperature goal. It must also include the recently observed fast technological progress in key mitigation options. Here, we use a new and unique scenario ensemble that limit peak warming by construction and that stems from seven up-to-date integrated assessment models. This allows us to study the near-term implications of different limits to peak temperature increase under a consistent and up-to-date set of assumptions. We find that ambitious immediate action allows for limiting median warming outcomes to well below 2 °C in all models. By contrast, current nationally determined contributions for 2030 would add around 0.2 °C of peak warming, leading to an unavoidable transgression of 1.5 °C in all models, and 2 °C in some. In contrast to the incremental changes as foreseen by current plans, ambitious peak warming targets require decisive emission cuts until 2030, with the most substantial contribution to decarbonization coming from the power sector. Therefore, investments into low-carbon power generation need to increase beyond current levels to meet the Paris goals, especially for solar and wind technologies and related system enhancements for electricity transmission, distribution and storage. Estimates on absolute investment levels, up-scaling of other low-carbon power generation technologies and investment shares in less ambitious scenarios vary considerably across models. In scenarios limiting peak warming to below 2 °C, while coal is phased out quickly, oil and

Published
2021

15. Linking global CGE models with sectoral models to generate baseline scenarios: Approaches, opportunities and pitfalls

Author

Delzeit, R., Beach, R., Bibas, R., Britz, W., Chateau, J., Freund, F., Lefevre, J., Schuenemann, F., Sulser, T., Valin, H., van Ruijven, B., Weitzel, M., Willenbockel, D., Wojtowicz, K., Delzeit, R., Beach, R., Bibas, R., Britz, W., Chateau, J., Freund, F., Lefevre, J., Schuenemann, F., Sulser, T., Valin, H., van Ruijven, B., Weitzel, M., Willenbockel, D., and Wojtowicz, K.

Abstract

When modelling medium and long-term challenges we need a reference path of economic development (the so-called baseline). Because sectoral models often offer a more fundamental understanding of future developments for specific sectors, many CGE modeling teams have adopted different kinds of linking approaches to sectoral models to generate baselines. We systematically compare and discuss approaches of linking CGE models for the baseline calibration procedure, and discuss best practices and pitfalls. We identify different types of linking approaches which we divide into a) links with partial equilibrium models, and b) links with non-economic models. These two types of linking approaches are then analyzed with respect to e.g. the degree of linkage, information exchanged, as well as compromises in aggregations and definitions. Based on this, we discuss potential drawbacks and conclude with suggestions for best practices and research recommendations.

Published
2020

17. Model-based assessments for long-term climate strategies

Author

Weitzel, M., Vandyck, T., Keramidas, K., Amann, M., Capros, P., Den Elzen, M., Frank, S., Tchung-Ming, S., Vazquez, A., Saveyn, B., Weitzel, M., Vandyck, T., Keramidas, K., Amann, M., Capros, P., Den Elzen, M., Frank, S., Tchung-Ming, S., Vazquez, A., and Saveyn, B.

Abstract

Many countries are formulating a long-term climate strategy to be submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change by 2020. Model-based, multi-disciplinary assessments can be a key ingredient for informing policy makers and engaging stakeholders in this process.

Published
2019

18. Multi-model comparison of the economic and energy implications for China and India in an international climate regime

Author

Johansson, D.J.A., Lucas, P.L., Weitzel, M., Ahlgren, E.O., Bazaz, A.B., Chen, W., den Elzen, M.G.J., Ghosh, J., Grahn, M., Liang, Q.M., Peterson, S., Pradhan, B.K., van Ruijven, B.J., Shukla, P.R., van Vuuren, D.P., Wei, Y.M., Environmental Sciences, and Sub Science, Technology & Society begr.

Subjects
Computable general equilibrium, China, Natural resource economics, 020209 energy, Population, India, 02 engineering and technology, 010501 environmental sciences, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, Environmental protection, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, Per capita, Economics, Energy Systems, education, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Global and Planetary Change, education.field_of_study, Energy, Ecology, Global warming, Costs, Climate change mitigation, 13. Climate action, Climate policy, Original Article, Copenhagen Accord, Emissions trading
Abstract

This paper presents a modeling comparison on how stabilization of global climate change at about 2 °C above the pre-industrial level could affect economic and energy systems development in China and India. Seven General Equilibrium (CGE) and energy system models on either the global or national scale are soft-linked and harmonized with respect to population and economic assumptions. We simulate a climate regime, based on long-term convergence of per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, starting from the emission pledges presented in the Copenhagen Accord to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and allowing full emissions trading between countries. Under the climate regime, Indian emission allowances are allowed to grow more than the Chinese allowances, due to the per capita convergence rule and the higher population growth in India. Economic and energy implications not only differ among the two countries, but also across model types. Decreased energy intensity is the most important abatement approach in the CGE models, while decreased carbon intensity is most important in the energy system models. The reduction in carbon intensity is mostly achieved through deployment of carbon capture and storage, renewable energy sources and nuclear energy. The economic impacts are generally higher in China than in India, due to higher 2010–2050 cumulative abatement in China and the fact that India can offset more of its abatement cost though international emission trading.

Published
2014

20. Multi-model comparison of the economic and energy implications for China and India in an international climate regime

Author

Johansson, D.J.A., Lucas, P.L., Weitzel, M., Ahlgren, E.O., Bazaz, A.B., Chen, W., den Elzen, M.G.J., Ghosh, J., Grahn, M., Liang, Q.M., Peterson, S., Pradhan, B.K., van Ruijven, B.J., Shukla, P.R., van Vuuren, D.P., Wei, Y.M., Environmental Sciences, and Sub Science, Technology & Society begr.

Subjects
China, Energy, Climate policy, India, Costs
Abstract

This paper presents a modeling comparison on how stabilization of global climate change at about 2 °C above the pre-industrial level could affect economic and energy systems development in China and India. Seven General Equilibrium (CGE) and energy system models on either the global or national scale are soft-linked and harmonized with respect to population and economic assumptions. We simulate a climate regime, based on long-term convergence of per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, starting from the emission pledges presented in the Copenhagen Accord to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and allowing full emissions trading between countries. Under the climate regime, Indian emission allowances are allowed to grow more than the Chinese allowances, due to the per capita convergence rule and the higher population growth in India. Economic and energy implications not only differ among the two countries, but also across model types. Decreased energy intensity is the most important abatement approach in the CGE models, while decreased carbon intensity is most important in the energy system models. The reduction in carbon intensity is mostly achieved through deployment of carbon capture and storage, renewable energy sources and nuclear energy. The economic impacts are generally higher in China than in India, due to higher 2010-2050 cumulative abatement in China and the fact that India can offset more of its abatement cost though international emission trading.

Published
2015

21. Multi-model comparison of the economic and energy implications for China and India in an international climate regime

Author

Environmental Sciences, Sub Science, Technology & Society begr., Johansson, D.J.A., Lucas, P.L., Weitzel, M., Ahlgren, E.O., Bazaz, A.B., Chen, W., den Elzen, M.G.J., Ghosh, J., Grahn, M., Liang, Q.M., Peterson, S., Pradhan, B.K., van Ruijven, B.J., Shukla, P.R., van Vuuren, D.P., Wei, Y.M., Environmental Sciences, Sub Science, Technology & Society begr., Johansson, D.J.A., Lucas, P.L., Weitzel, M., Ahlgren, E.O., Bazaz, A.B., Chen, W., den Elzen, M.G.J., Ghosh, J., Grahn, M., Liang, Q.M., Peterson, S., Pradhan, B.K., van Ruijven, B.J., Shukla, P.R., van Vuuren, D.P., and Wei, Y.M.

Published
2015

22. Emission allowances and mitigation costs of China and India resulting from different effort-sharing approaches

Author

van Ruijven, B.J., Weitzel, M., den Elzen, M.G.J., Hof, Andries, van Vuuren, D.P., Peterson, S., Narita, D., Environmental Sciences, Sub Science, Technology & Society begr., and Section Environmental Sciences

Subjects
Taverne
Abstract

To meet ambitious global climate targets, mitigation effort in China and India is necessary. This paper presents an analysis of the scientific literature on how effort-sharing approaches affect emission allowances and abatement costs of China and India. We find that reductions for both China and India differ greatly in time, across- and within approaches and between concentration stabilisation targets. For China, allocated emission allowances in 2020 are substantially below baseline projections. Moreover, they may be below 2005 emission levels, particularly for low concentration targets (below 490ppm CO 2-eq). Effort-sharing approaches based on allocating reduction targets lead to relatively lower reductions for China than approaches that are based on allocating emission allowances. For 2050, emission allowances for China are 50-80% below 2005 levels for low concentration targets with minor differences between approaches. Still, mitigation costs of China (including emissions trading) remain mostly below global average. According to literature, Chinese emission allowances peak before 2025-2030 for low concentration targets. India's emission allowances show high increases compared to 2005 levels. If emission trading is allowed, financial revenues from selling credits might compensate mitigation costs in most approaches, even for low concentration targets. India's emission allowances peak around 2030-2040 for all concentration targets.

Published
2012

24. A question of adaptability – climate and habitat change lower trait diversity in butterfly communities in south-western Germany

Author

Filz, K.J., Wiemers, Martin, Herrig, A., Weitzel, M., Schmitt, T., Filz, K.J., Wiemers, Martin, Herrig, A., Weitzel, M., and Schmitt, T.

Abstract

Invertebrate diversity has rapidly declined throughout Europe during the last century. Various reasons for this decrease have been proposed including human induced factors like climate change. Temperature changes alter distributions and occurrences of butterflies by determining habitat conditions at different scales. We evaluated changes in the composition of butterfly communities recorded at nine areas of fallow ground in south-western Germany in 1973, 1986, 2010 and 2012 using Pollard’s transect technique. To demonstrate the importance of climatic changes in affecting butterfly communities, we calculated the community temperature index (CTI) for each butterfly community in each year. Although they increased slightly, the CTI-values did not match the temperature trends recorded in the study region. However, the reduction in the standard deviations of the CTIs over time is reflected in the marked loss of cold- and warm-adapted species due to their inability to cope with temperature and land use induced habitat changes. Results of our butterfly surveys indicate a marked decline in species richness and striking changes in the composition of the butterfly communities studied. This trend was most pronounced for habitat specialists and, thus mirroring a depletion in trait diversity. Our results indicate that, in the course of large-scale anthropogenic changes, habitat degradation at smaller scales will continuously lead to the replacement of habitat specialists by ubiquitous species.

Published
2013

25. Emission allowances and mitigation costs of China and India resulting from different effort-sharing approaches

Author

Environmental Sciences, Sub Science, Technology & Society begr., Section Environmental Sciences, van Ruijven, B.J., Weitzel, M., den Elzen, M.G.J., Hof, Andries, van Vuuren, D.P., Peterson, S., Narita, D., Environmental Sciences, Sub Science, Technology & Society begr., Section Environmental Sciences, van Ruijven, B.J., Weitzel, M., den Elzen, M.G.J., Hof, Andries, van Vuuren, D.P., Peterson, S., and Narita, D.

Published
2012

30. Abstracts from the 8th Annual Meeting of the Scientific Association of Swiss Radiation Oncology (SASRO)

Author

Allal, A. S., primary, Ares, C., additional, Dulguerov, P., additional, Tschanz, E., additional, Verdan, C., additional, Mhawech, P., additional, Riesterer, O., additional, Honer, M., additional, Vuong, V., additional, Jochum, W., additional, Zingg, D., additional, Bodis, S., additional, Ametamey, S., additional, Pruschy, M., additional, Inteeworn, N., additional, Ohlerth, S., additional, Höpfl, G., additional, Roos, M., additional, Wergin, M., additional, Rohrer Bley, C., additional, Gassmann, M., additional, Kaser-Hotz, B., additional, Berthou, S., additional, Aebersold, D. M., additional, Ganapathipillai, S., additional, Streit, B., additional, Stalder, D., additional, Gruber, G., additional, Greiner, R. H., additional, Zimmer, Y., additional, Lutters, G., additional, Krek, W., additional, Tenzer, A., additional, Hofstetter, B., additional, Bonny, C., additional, Azria, A., additional, Larbouret, C., additional, Cunat, S., additional, Ozsahin, M., additional, Zouhair, A., additional, Gourgou, S., additional, Martineau, P., additional, Evans, D. B., additional, Romieu, G., additional, Pujol, P., additional, Pèlegrin, A., additional, Heuberger, J., additional, Kestenholz, P., additional, Taverna, Ch., additional, Lardinois, D., additional, Jörger, M., additional, Schneiter, D., additional, Jerman, M., additional, Weder, W., additional, Stahel, R., additional, Bodis, St., additional, Vees, H., additional, Mach, N., additional, Hügli, A., additional, Balmer Majno, S., additional, Beer, K. T., additional, Friedrich, E. E., additional, Ciernik, I. F., additional, Stanek, N., additional, Taverna, C., additional, Greiner, R., additional, Mahler, F., additional, Landmann, Ch., additional, Studer, G., additional, Bernier, J., additional, Gallino, A., additional, Juelke, Peter D., additional, Hafner, Hans-Peter, additional, Jamshidi, Peiman, additional, Erne, Paul, additional, Resink, Therese Josephine, additional, Thum, Peter, additional, Notter, M., additional, Bargetzi, M., additional, Suleiman, M., additional, Luthi, J. C., additional, Bieri, S., additional, Curschmann, J., additional, Pajic, B., additional, Kranzbühler, H., additional, Lippold, B., additional, Ueltschi, G., additional, Bonetti, M., additional, Nasi, M. L., additional, Price, K. N., additional, Castiglione-Gertsch, M., additional, Rudenstam, C.-M., additional, Holmberg, S. B., additional, Lindtner, J., additional, Gol-ouh, R., additional, Collins, J., additional, Crivellari, D., additional, Carbone, A., additional, Thürlimann, B., additional, Simoncini, E., additional, Fey, M. F., additional, Gelber, R. D., additional, Coates, A. S., additional, Goldhirsch, A., additional, Jeanneret Sozzi, W., additional, Kramar, A., additional, Mirimanoff, R. O., additional, Azria, D., additional, Taussky, D., additional, Becker, M., additional, Kranzbuehler, H., additional, Weitzel, M., additional, Bortoluzzi, L., additional, Behrensmeier, F., additional, Isaak, B., additional, Pasche, P., additional, Luthi, F., additional, Weber, D. C., additional, Lomax, A. J., additional, Rutz, H. P., additional, Pedroni, E. S., additional, Verwey, J., additional, Goitein, G., additional, Timmermann, B., additional, Lomax, A., additional, Bolsi, A., additional, Weber, D., additional, Bentzen, S. M., additional, Khalil, A. A., additional, Saunders, M. I., additional, Horiot, J. C., additional, Van den Bogaert, W., additional, Cummings, B. J., additional, Dische, S., additional, Slosman, D. O., additional, Kebdani, T., additional, Allaoua, M., additional, Stadelmann, O., additional, Stupp, R., additional, Pica, A., additional, Dubois, J. B., additional, Oehler, C., additional, Ulmer, U., additional, Lütolf, U. M., additional, Huser, M., additional, Burger, C., additional, Szekely, G., additional, Davis, J. B., additional, Gervaz, P., additional, Gertsch, P., additional, Morel, Ph., additional, Roth, A. D., additional, Zenklusen, H., additional, Schott, A., additional, Curti, G., additional, Schefer, H., additional, Kolotas, C., additional, Thalmann, G., additional, Vetterli, D., additional, Kemmerling, L., additional, Mini, R., additional, Rouzaud, M., additional, Nouet, P., additional, Mollà, M., additional, Escudé, L., additional, Miralbell, R., additional, Beer, K., additional, von Briel, C., additional, Jichlinski, P., additional, Guillou, L., additional, Fogliata, A., additional, Nicolini, G., additional, Cozzi, L., additional, Hafner, H. P., additional, Hueber, P., additional, Szczerba, D., additional, Born, E. J., additional, Dipasquale, G., additional, Jargy, C., additional, Munier, F., additional, Balmer, A., additional, Do, H. P., additional, Pasche, G., additional, Wang, H., additional, Moeckli, R., additional, Boehringer, T., additional, Coray, A., additional, Lin, S., additional, Pedroni, E., additional, Rutz, H., additional, Baumert, B. G., additional, Norton, I. A., additional, Schoenmaker, E., additional, Krayenbühl, J., additional, Bründler, M.-A., additional, Allemann, K., additional, Laluhovà, D., additional, Collen, T., additional, Coucke, P., additional, Ries, G., additional, Rufibach, K., additional, Huguenin, P., additional, Abdou, M., additional, Girardet, C., additional, Vees, H. J., additional, Bigler, R., additional, Özsoy, O., additional, Bouville, S., additional, Corminboeuf, F., additional, Betz, M., additional, Matzinger, O., additional, Tebeu, P., additional, Popowski, Y., additional, Verkooijen, H., additional, Bouchardy, C., additional, Ludicke, F., additional, Usel, M., additional, Major, A., additional, Merçay, A., additional, Pache, G., additional, Bulling, S., additional, Bressan, S., additional, Valley, J. F., additional, Motta, M., additional, Presilla, S., additional, Richetti, A., additional, Franzetti, A., additional, and Pesce, G., additional

Published
2004
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34. Grid computing for Systems Biology.

Author

Barth, Thomas, Schüll, Anke, Wlechert, W., Haunschild, M., Weitzel, M., Nöh, K., von Lieres, E., Wahl, A., Qeli, E., and Freisleben, B.

Abstract

Systems Biology is a young research discipline that aims at the understanding of complex cellular regulation networks on the platform of system theoretic concepts. It is driven by the availability of high-throughput measurement data in recent years. Mathematical modeling has become a central tool of Systems Biology because it produces comprehensive formal representations of a complex system that can be simulated on a computer. Complex biological system models are usually built in an iterative process of experimental and theoretical work. To support this model guided discovery processes, a well assorted set of computational tools is required. Among them are parameter fitting, statistical parameter analysis and uncertainty propagation, optimal experimental design, Monte Carlo methods, model selection, or systems optimization. The computational and configurational effort of all these tasks is very high. Fortunately, they all rely on two elementary operations - simulation and sensitivity analysis - and thus are well suited for parallelization. Consequently, Grid computing methods are ideally suited for computational Systems Biology environments. This contribution summarizes some recent developments, shows the potential of Grid computing for Systems Biology and discusses two illustrative examples from metabolic flux analysis and stimulus response experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2006
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39. FalseNegative Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Early Stage of LeggCalvéPerthes Disease

Author

Elsig, J. P., Exner, G. U., Schulthess, G. K. von, and Weitzel, M.

Abstract

We report a 7-year 6-month-old boy with Legg-Calvé-Perthes (LCP) disease in whom a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was normal during the early symptomatic phase when the 99mTc bone scintigraphy showed segmental hypoperfusion of the femoral head suggestive of bone infarction. Only later in the disease did the MRI also show the typical changes of LCP. The follow-up on this patient with bilateral disease leaves no doubt about the diagnosis of LCP. This sequence of a positive scintigram before positive MRI findings may be the exception, but it is important to realize that MRI is not always the most sensitive way to diagnose or exclude LCP as suggested hitherto by the literature.

Published
1989

40. Integration into professional nursing by graduates of an innovative entry-level MSN program

Author

Cook, K., Becker, H., and Weitzel, M.

Abstract

Recently, nursing programs that admit nonnurse college graduates to graduate study in nursing have emerged around the country. The University of Texas at Austin has such a program called the Alternate Entry Master of Science in Nursing (AEMSN) program. Using a grounded theory approach, 13 telephone interviews were conducted with alumni of the AEMSN program to examine the socialization of these nontraditional graduates into the profession of nursing. Participants reported some anxiety as they approached graduation. They were particularly aware of a disconnection between their academic credentials and their limited professional nursing experience. To manage others' and their own expectations of them, the participants chose various strategies, such as using positive self-talk and seeking a manager who understood and favored the AEMSN program. Eventually the graduates found places where they felt comfortable and where they could hone their skills. As they began to function in roles that they believed were consistent with master's level nursing, the AEMSN graduates began to embrace the identity of master's-prepared nurses.

Published
1996
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46. The topology of metabolic isotope labeling networks

Author

Wiechert Wolfgang, Weitzel Michael, and Nöh Katharina

Subjects
Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics, R858-859.7, Biology (General), QH301-705.5
Abstract

Abstract Background Metabolic Flux Analysis (MFA) based on isotope labeling experiments (ILEs) is a widely established tool for determining fluxes in metabolic pathways. Isotope labeling networks (ILNs) contain all essential information required to describe the flow of labeled material in an ILE. Whereas recent experimental progress paves the way for high-throughput MFA, large network investigations and exact statistical methods, these developments are still limited by the poor performance of computational routines used for the evaluation and design of ILEs. In this context, the global analysis of ILN topology turns out to be a clue for realizing large speedup factors in all required computational procedures. Results With a strong focus on the speedup of algorithms the topology of ILNs is investigated using graph theoretic concepts and algorithms. A rigorous determination of all cyclic and isomorphic subnetworks, accompanied by the global analysis of ILN connectivity is performed. Particularly, it is proven that ILNs always brake up into a large number of small strongly connected components (SCCs) and, moreover, there are natural isomorphisms between many of these SCCs. All presented techniques are universal, i.e. they do not require special assumptions on the network structure, bidirectionality of fluxes, measurement configuration, or label input. The general results are exemplified with a practically relevant metabolic network which describes the central metabolism of E. coli comprising 10390 isotopomer pools. Conclusion Exploiting the topological features of ILNs leads to a significant speedup of all universal algorithms for ILE evaluation. It is proven in theory and exemplified with the E. coli example that a speedup factor of about 1000 compared to standard algorithms is achieved. This widely opens the door for new high performance algorithms suitable for high throughput applications and large ILNs. Moreover, for the first time the global topological analysis of ILNs allows to comprehensively describe and understand the general patterns of label flow in complex networks. This is an invaluable tool for the structural design of new experiments and the interpretation of measured data.

Published
2007
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47. Shared decision-making and disease management in advanced cancer and chronic kidney disease using patient-reported outcome dashboards.

Author

Cella D, Kuharic M, Peipert JD, Bedjeti K, Garcia SF, Yanez B, Hirschhorn LR, Coughlin A, Morken V, O'Connor M, Linder JA, Jordan N, Ackermann RT, Amagai S, Kircher S, Mohindra N, Aggarwal V, Weitzel M, Nelson EC, Elwyn G, Van Citters AD, and Barnard C

Subjects
Humans, Male, Female, Middle Aged, Aged, Quality of Life, Disease Management, Patient Participation, Adult, Patient Reported Outcome Measures, Renal Insufficiency, Chronic therapy, Neoplasms therapy, Neoplasms complications, Decision Making, Shared
Abstract

Objectives: To assess the use of a co-designed patient-reported outcome (PRO) clinical dashboard and estimate its impact on shared decision-making (SDM) and symptomatology in adults with advanced cancer or chronic kidney disease (CKD)., Materials and Methods: We developed a clinical PRO dashboard within the Northwestern Medicine Patient-Reported Outcomes system, enhanced through co-design involving 20 diverse constituents. Using a single-group, pretest-posttest design, we evaluated the dashboard's use among patients with advanced cancer or CKD between June 2020 and January 2022. Eligible patients had a visit with a participating clinician, completed at least two dashboard-eligible visits, and consented to follow-up surveys. PROs were collected 72 h prior to visits, including measures for chronic condition management self-efficacy, health-related quality of life (PROMIS measures), and SDM (collaboRATE). Responses were integrated into the EHR dashboard and accessible to clinicians and patients., Results: We recruited 157 participants: 66 with advanced cancer and 91 with CKD. There were significant improvements in SDM from baseline, as assessed by collaboRATE scores. The proportion of participants reporting the highest level of SDM on every collaboRATE item increased by 15 percentage points from baseline to 3 months, and 17 points between baseline and 6-month follow-up. Additionally, there was a clinically meaningful decrease in anxiety levels over study period (T-score baseline: 53; 3-month: 52; 6-month: 50; P < .001), with a standardized response mean (SRM) of -0.38 at 6 months., Discussion: PRO clinical dashboards, developed and shared with patients, may enhance SDM and reduce anxiety among patients with advanced cancer and CKD., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association.)

Published
2024
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48. Exceeding the guideline-recommended maximum daily dose of opioids for long-term treatment of non-cancer pain in Germany - a large retrospective observational study.

Author

Schrader NF, Niemann A, Weitzel M, Speckemeier C, Abels C, Blase N, Giebel GD, Riederer C, Nadstawek J, Straßmeir W, Wasem J, and Neusser S

Subjects
Humans, Retrospective Studies, Germany, Male, Female, Middle Aged, Aged, Adult, Guideline Adherence statistics & numerical data, Practice Patterns, Physicians' statistics & numerical data, Practice Patterns, Physicians' standards, Analgesics, Opioid therapeutic use, Analgesics, Opioid administration & dosage, Chronic Pain drug therapy, Practice Guidelines as Topic
Abstract

Background: High-dose long-term opioid therapy (LTOT) has been associated with increased mortality and hospitalizations. Therefore, the evidence-based German guideline on LTOT for chronic non-cancer pain (CNCP) recommends to only exceed the maximum daily dose (MDD) of opioids in exceptional cases. This study aimed to determine the portion of LTOT patients who exceeded the guideline-recommended MDD and identify predictors of exceeding in administrative claims data., Methods: The retrospective observational analysis of opioid prescriptions in patients receiving LTOT for CNCP was based on administrative claims by a large German statutory health insurance company. Patients with at least two quarters of opioid prescriptions between January 2018 and June 2019 were included and followed up for two years. Predictors were identified by logistic regression. In addition, the number of patients still in opioid therapy and the extent of exceeded MDDs were analyzed over time., Results: The sample consisted of 113,475 patients. Overall, 10.5% of the patients exceeded the guideline-recommended MDD averaged over the observation period. Strong predictors for exceeding the MDD were receiving opioid prescriptions from > 7 physicians (OR = 7.66, p < .001), receiving predominantly strong opioids (OR = 6.79, p < .001) and receiving opioids for at least one year prior to inclusion (OR = 5.35, p < .001). Within the non-exceeding group, 28.1% discontinued opioid therapy. In contrast, 9.9% of patients in the exceeding group discontinued opioid therapy, whereas the vast majority remained on treatment until the end of the observation period. Furthermore, a slight increase in prescribed doses was observed over time., Conclusions: The results indicate that a moderate proportion of patients exceeded the guideline-recommended MDD. However, certain patient groups were more likely to receive high doses. This applied in particular to those who were already on treatment at the time of inclusion and continued to receive opioids until the end of the observation period. Further research should examine whether the continuous opioid therapy among the patients with exceeding the guideline-recommended MDD might be related to specific indications, a lack of therapeutic options or avoidance of withdrawal., Trial Registration: German Clinical Trials Register (drks.de/search/en). Identifier: DRKS00024854. Registered 28 April 2021., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Published
2024
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49. Implementation of a Co-Design Strategy to Develop a Dashboard to Support Shared Decision Making in Advanced Cancer and Chronic Kidney Disease.

Author

Morken V, Perry LM, Coughlin A, O'Connor M, Chmiel R, Xinos S, Peipert JD, Garcia SF, Linder JA, Ackermann RT, Kircher S, Mohindra NA, Aggarwal V, Weitzel M, Nelson EC, Elwyn G, Van Citters AD, Barnard C, Cella D, and Hirschhorn LR

Abstract

Background: Shared decision making (SDM) is the process by which patients and clinicians exchange information and preferences to come to joint healthcare decisions. Clinical dashboards can support SDM by collecting, distilling, and presenting critical information, such as patient-reported outcomes (PROs), to be shared at points of care and in between appointments. We describe the implementation strategies and outcomes of a multistakeholder collaborative process known as "co-design" to develop a PRO-informed clinical dashboard to support SDM for patients with advanced cancer or chronic kidney disease (CKD). Methods: Across 14 sessions, two multidisciplinary teams comprising patients, care partners, clinicians, and other stakeholders iteratively co-designed an SDM dashboard for either advanced cancer (N = 25) or CKD (N = 24). Eligible patients, care partners, and frontline clinicians were identified by six physician champions. The co-design process included four key steps: (1) define "the problem", (2) establish context of use, (3) build a consensus on design, and (4) define and test specifications. We also evaluated our success in implementing the co-design strategy using measures of fidelity, acceptability, adoption, feasibility, and effectiveness which were collected throughout the process. Results: Mean ( M ) scores across implementation measures of the co-design process were high, including observer-rated fidelity and adoption of co-design practices ( M = 19.1 on a 7-21 scale, N = 36 ratings across 9 sessions), as well as acceptability based on the perceived degree of SDM that occurred during the co-design process ( M = 10.4 on a 0 to 12 adapted collaboRATE scale). Capturing the feasibility and adoption of convening multistakeholder co-design teams, min-max normalized scores (ranging from 0 to 1) of stakeholder representation demonstrated that, on average, 95% of stakeholder types were represented for cancer sessions ( M = 0.95) and 85% for CKD sessions ( M = 0.85). The co-design process was rated as either "fully" or "partially" effective by 100% of respondents, in creating a dashboard that met its intended objective. Conclusions: A co-design process was successfully implemented to develop SDM clinical dashboards for advanced cancer and CKD care. We discuss key strategies and learnings from this process that may aid others in the development and uptake of patient-centered healthcare innovations.

Published
2024
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50. Prescription of Opioid Analgesics for Chronic Non-Cancer Pain in Germany despite Contraindications: Administrative Claims Data Analysis.

Author

Niemann A, Schrader NF, Speckemeier C, Abels C, Blase N, Weitzel M, Neumann A, Riederer C, Nadstawek J, Straßmeir W, Wasem J, and Neusser S

Subjects
Humans, Female, Aged, Male, Analgesics, Opioid therapeutic use, Retrospective Studies, Analgesics, Prescriptions, Germany epidemiology, Data Analysis, Practice Patterns, Physicians', Chronic Pain drug therapy, Neoplasms
Abstract

In Germany, long-term opioid treatment (L-TOT) for chronic non-tumor pain (CNTP) is discussed as not being performed according to the German guideline on L-TOT for CNTP. In the present analysis, the occurrence and predictors of inappropriate care/overuse in a cohort of German insureds with L-TOT for CNTP by the presence of a contraindication with concurrent opioid analgesic (OA) therapy were investigated. We also analyzed whether prescribing physicians themselves diagnosed a contraindication. The retrospective cohort study was based on administrative claims data from a German statutory health insurance. Eight contraindication groups were defined based on the German guideline. Logistic regressions were performed in order to identify predictors for OA prescriptions despite contraindications. The possible knowledge of the prescribing physician about the contraindication was approximated by analyzing concordant unique physician identification numbers of OA prescriptions and contraindication diagnoses. A total of 113,476 individuals (75% female) with a mean age of 72 years were included. The most common documented contraindications were primary headaches (8.7%), severe mood disorders (7.7%) and pain in somatoform disorders (4.5%). The logistic regressions identified a younger age, longer history of OA therapy, opioid related psychological problems, and outpatient psychosomatic primary care as positive predictors for all contraindication groups.

Published
2024
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