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Extreme heat is a recognized threat to human health. This study examines projected future trends of multiple measures of extreme heat across Texas throughout the next century, and evaluates the expected climate changes alongside Texas athletic staff (coach and athletic trainer) attitudes toward heat and climate change. Numerical climate simulations from the recently published Community Earth System Model version 2 and the Climate Model Intercomparison Project were used to predict changes in summer temperatures, heat indices, and wet bulb temperatures across Texas and also within specific metropolitan areas. A survey examining attitudes toward the effects of climate change on athletic programs and student athlete health was also distributed to high-school and university athletic staff. Heat indices are projected to increase beyond what is considered healthy/safe limits for outdoor sports activity by the mid-to-late 21st century. Survey results reveal a general understanding and acceptance of climate change and a need for adjustments in accordance with more dangerous heat-related events. However, a portion of athletic staff still do not acknowledge the changing climate and its implications for student athlete health and their athletic programs. Enhancing climate change and health communication across the state may initiate important changes to athletic programs (e.g., timing, duration, intensity, and location of practices), which should be made in accordance with increasingly dangerous temperatures and weather conditions. This work employs a novel interdisciplinary approach to evaluate future heat projections alongside attitudes from athletic communities toward climate change.

Environ Health Perspect. 130(1):017001 (2022), https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8083 In the Methods, under the 'Assessment of Ambient Temperature' section, the PRISM model is defined as 'Practical, Robust Implementation and Sustainability Model (PRISM).' The [...]

The methodological development of this article is motivated by the need to address the following scientific question: does the issuance of heat alerts prevent adverse health effects? Our goal is to address this question within a causal inference framework in the context of time series data. A key challenge is that causal inference methods require the overlap assumption to hold: each unit (i.e. a day) must have a positive probability of receiving the treatment (i.e. issuing a heat alert on that day). In our motivating example, the overlap assumption is often violated: the probability of issuing a heat alert on a cooler day is near zero. To overcome this challenge, we propose a stochastic intervention for time series data which is implemented via an incremental time-varying propensity score (ItvPS). The ItvPS intervention is executed by multiplying the probability of issuing a heat alert on day |$t$| —conditional on past information up to day |$t$| —by an odds ratio |$\delta_t$|⁠. First, we introduce a new class of causal estimands, which relies on the ItvPS intervention. We provide theoretical results to show that these causal estimands can be identified and estimated under a weaker version of the overlap assumption. Second, we propose nonparametric estimators based on the ItvPS and derive an upper bound for the variances of these estimators. Third, we extend this framework to multisite time series using a spatial meta-analysis approach. Fourth, we show that the proposed estimators perform well in terms of bias and root mean squared error via simulations. Finally, we apply our proposed approach to estimate the causal effects of increasing the probability of issuing heat alerts on each warm-season day in reducing deaths and hospitalizations among Medicare enrollees in 2837 US counties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Although extreme heat can impact the health of anyone, certain groups are disproportionately affected. In urban settings, cooling centers are intended to reduce heat exposure by providing air-conditioned spaces to the public. We examined the characteristics of populations living near cooling centers and how well they serve areas with high social vulnerability. Methods: We identified 1402 cooling centers in 81 US cities from publicly available sources and analyzed markers of urban heat and social vulnerability in relation to their locations. Within each city, we developed cooling center access areas, defined as the geographic area within a 0.5-mile walk from a center, and compared sociodemographic characteristics of populations living within versus outside the access areas. We analyzed results by city and geographic region to evaluate climate-relevant regional differences. Results: Access to cooling centers differed among cities, ranging from 0.01% (Atlanta, Georgia) to 63.2% (Washington, DC) of the population living within an access area. On average, cooling centers were in areas that had higher levels of social vulnerability, as measured by the number of people living in urban heat islands, annual household income below poverty, racial and ethnic minority status, low educational attainment, and high unemployment rate. However, access areas were less inclusive of adult populations aged ≥65 years than among populations aged <65 years. Conclusion: Given the large percentage of individuals without access to cooling centers and the anticipated increase in frequency and severity of extreme heat events, the current distribution of centers in the urban areas that we examined may be insufficient to protect individuals from the adverse health effects of extreme heat, particularly in the absence of additional measures to reduce risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Emerging studies suggest that ambient temperature during pregnancy may be associated with fetal growth, but the existing evidence is limited and inconsistent. Objectives: We aimed to evaluate the association of trimester-specific temperature with risk of being born small for gestational age (SGA) and birth weight--markers of fetal growth--among term births in the contiguous United States. Methods: We included data on 29,597,735 live singleton births between 1989 and 2002 across 403 U.S. counties. We estimated daily county-level population-weighted mean temperature using a spatially refined gridded climate data set. We used logistic regression to estimate the association between trimester-specific temperature and risk of SGA and linear regression to evaluate the association between trimester-specific temperature and term birth weight z-score, adjusting for parity, maternal demographics, smoking or drinking during pregnancy, chronic hypertension, and year and month of conception. We then pooled results overall and by geographic regions and climate zones. Results: High ambient temperatures (>90th percentile) during the entire pregnancy were associated with higher risk of term SGA {odds ratio [OR] = 1.041 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.029, 1.054]} and lower term birth weight [standardized to -15 g (95% CI: -17 g, -13 g) reduction in birth weight for infants born at 40 weeks of gestation]. Low temperatures (< 10th percentile) during the entire pregnancy were not associated with SGA [OR = 1.003 (95% CI: 0.991, 1.015)] but were associated with a small decrement in term birth weight [standardized to -6 g (95% CI: -8 g, -4 g)]. Risks of term SGA and birth weight were more strongly associated with temperature averaged across the second and third trimesters, in areas the Northeast, and in areas with cold or very cold climates. Conclusions: Above-average temperatures during pregnancy were associated with lower fetal growth. Our findings provide evidence that temperature may be a novel risk factor for reduced fetal growth. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4648, Introduction Birth weight is a marker of fetal growth, an important predictor of neonatal morbidity and mortality, and associated with risk of chronic health problems in later life (Barker 2006; [...]

This study provides evidence that heat-related illness severe enough to result in lost time at work occurs disproportionately among certain demographic groups and occupations in British Columbia. The identification of differences in heat-related illness risk in occupational settings may inform the development or refinement of prevention strategies. Objective: The aim of this study was to describe the incidence of heat-related illness among workers in British Columbia (BC), Canada, 2001–2020. Methods: Cases of heat-related illness occurring among workers aged 15 years and older were identified from accepted lost-time claims from WorkSafeBC, the provincial workers' compensation board. Incidence rates were calculated using monthly estimates of the working population from Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey as the denominator. Results: Between 2000 and 2020, there were 528 heat-related illness claims, corresponding to a rate of 1.21 (95% confidence interval, 1.10–1.31) claims per 100,000 workers. Eighty-four percent of claims occurred between June and August. Rates were higher among male workers, younger workers, and among those working in occupations related to primary industry; trades, transport, and equipment operators; and processing, manufacturing, and utilities. Conclusions: In BC, lost-time claims for heat-related illness occurred disproportionately among certain subgroups of the workforce. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]