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Abstract Satellite data show the Earth has been greening and identify croplands in India as one of the most prominent greening hotspots. Though India’s agriculture has been dependent on irrigation enhancement to reduce crop water stress and increase production, the spatiotemporal dynamics of how irrigation influenced the satellite observed greenness remains unclear. Here, we use satellite-derived leaf area data and survey-based agricultural statistics together with results from state-of-the-art Land Surface Models (LSM) to investigate the role of irrigation in the greening of India’s croplands. We find that satellite observations provide multiple lines of evidence showing strong contributions of irrigation to significant greening during dry season and in drier environments. The national statistics support irrigation-driven yield enhancement and increased dry season cropping intensity. These suggest a continuous shift in India’s agriculture toward an irrigation-driven dry season cropping system and confirm the importance of land management in the greening phenomenon. However, the LSMs identify CO2 fertilization as a primary driver of greening whereas land use and management have marginal impacts on the simulated leaf area changes. This finding urges a closer collaboration of the modeling, Earth observation, and land system science communities to improve representation of land management in the Earth system modeling.

Abstract Constraining an increase in global mean temperature below 2°C compared to pre‐industrial levels is critical to limiting dangerous and cascading impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Understanding future climatic changes and their spatial heterogeneity at 2°C warming is thus important for policy makers to prepare actionable adaptation and mitigation plans by identifying where and to what extent lives and livelihoods will be impacted. This study uses the recently released NASA Earth eXchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX‐GDDP) CMIP6 data to provide a broad overview of projected changes in six key climate variables and two climate impact indicators at a time when warming exceeds 2°C. Analysis of global mean temperature changes indicates the 2040s as the decade when most CMIP6 models reach 2°C warming with respect to a pre‐industrial period (1850–1900). During the 2040s, we find that global mean temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, downwelling shortwave and longwave radiation, and wind speed over land under the high emission scenario are projected to change by +2.8°C, +22.4 mm/year, −0.73%, −2.23 , +15.9 W/m2, and −0.04 m/s, respectively. Many of the future changes are expected to exacerbate climate impacts including heat stress and fire danger. Our analysis shows geographic patterns of policy‐relevant climatic changes, as parts of the globe will experience significant climate impacts even if the goal to keep warming below 2°C goal is achieved. Our results highlight the urgent need for further studies focused on identifying key hotspots and advancing region‐specific actionable adaptation and mitigation plans.

Measurement(s) temperature of air • volume of hydrological precipitation • humidity • stellar radiation • atmospheric wind speed Technology Type(s) statistical downscaling Sample Characteristic - Environment atmosphere

The latest Geostationary (GEO) Operational Environmental Satellite-16 (GOES-16) equipped with Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) has comparable spectral and spatial resolution as low earth orbiting (LEO) sensors [i.e., the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)], but with up-to-the-minute image acquisition capability. This enables greater opportunities to generate two essential climate variables—Leaf area index (LAI) and the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) absorbed by vegetation with more cloud-free observations and at much higher frequency. The improved GEO LAI/FPAR products will increase the capacity for monitoring highly dynamic ecosystems in a timely manner. However, the radiative transfer (RT)-based MODIS operational algorithm cannot be directly applied to GOES-16 ABI data due to different sensor characteristics. Fortunately, it has been shown theoretically and practically, that the RT-based algorithm can be transplanted to any other optical sensors by optimizing the sensor-specific parameters—the single scattering albedo (SSA) and relative stabilized precision (RSP). We built the RT-based ABI-specific lookup tables (LUTs) using a global optimizing algorithm (SCE-UA) that can quickly find the optimal solution. SCE-UA optimizes the SSAs and RSPs in the LUTs by minimizing the difference between ABI and MODIS retrievals and maximizing the main algorithm execution rate. Our efforts indicate that these strategies of parametric optimization is able to decrease the discrepancy between the ABI and MODIS LAI/FPAR products. Comprehensive evaluations were conducted to evaluate ABI retrievals. These indirect inter-comparisons suggest a spatiotemporal consistency between ABI and the benchmark MODIS products, while direct validation with field measurements increases confidence in their accuracy. The proposed approach is applicable to any other optical sensors for LAI/FPAR estimation, especially, GEO sensors (i.e., Himawari-8, Geo-KOMPSAT-2A, FengYun-4 etc.).

Cloud cover and scarcity of ground-based validation hinder remote sensing of forest dynamics in the Amazon basin. Here, the authors analyse imagery from a high-frequency geostationary satellite sensor to study monthly NDVI patterns in the Amazon forest, finding support for spatially extensive seasonality.

This study developed a new atmospheric correction algorithm, GeoNEX-AC, that is independent from the traditional use of spectral band ratios but dedicated to exploiting information from the diurnal variability in the hypertemporal geostationary observations. The algorithm starts by evaluating smooth segments of the diurnal time series of the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance to identify clear-sky and snow-free observations. It then attempts to retrieve the Ross-Thick–Li-Sparse (RTLS) surface bi-directional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) parameters and the daily mean atmospheric optical depth (AOD) with an atmospheric radiative transfer model (RTM) to optimally simulate the observed diurnal variability in the clear-sky TOA reflectance. Once the initial RTLS parameters are retrieved after the algorithm’s burn-in period, they serve as the prior information to estimate the AOD levels for the following days and update the surface BRDF information with the new clear-sky observations. This process is iterated through the full time span of the observations, skipping only totally cloudy days or when surface snow is detected. We tested the algorithm over various Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites and the retrieved results well agree with the ground-based measurements. This study demonstrates that the high-frequency diurnal geostationary observations contain unique information that can help to address the atmospheric correction problem from new directions.

Accurate and timely land surface phenology (LSP) provides essential information for investigating the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to climate changes and quantifying carbon and surface energy cycles on the Earth. LSP has been widely investigated using daily Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) or Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations, but the resultant phenometrics are frequently influenced by surface heterogeneity and persistent cloud contamination in the time series observations. Recently, LSP has been derived from Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 time series providing detailed spatial pattern, but the results are of high uncertainties because of poor temporal resolution. With the availability of data from Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) onboard a new generation of geostationary satellites that observe the earth every 10–15 min, daily cloud-free time series could be obtained with high opportunities. Therefore, this study investigates the generation of synthetic high spatiotemporal resolution time series by fusing the harmonized Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 (HLS) time series with the temporal shape of ABI data for monitoring field-scale (30 m) LSP. The algorithm is verified by detecting the timings of greenup and senescence onsets around north Wisconsin/Michigan states, United States, where cloud cover is frequent during spring rainy season. The LSP detections from HLS-ABI are compared with those from HLS or ABI alone and are further evaluated using PhenoCam observations. The result indicates that (1) ABI could provide ~3 times more high-quality observations than HLS around spring greenup onset; (2) the greenup and senescence onsets derived from ABI and HLS-ABI are spatially consistent and statistically comparable with a median difference less than 1 and 10-days, respectively; (3) greenup and senescence onsets derived from HLS data show sharp boundaries around the orbit-overlapped areas and shifts of ~13 days delay and ~15 days ahead, respectively, relative to HLS-ABI detections; and (4) HLS-ABI greenup and senescence onsets align closely to PhenoCam observations with an absolute average difference of less than 2 days and 5 days, respectively, which are much better than phenology detections from ABI or HLS alone. The result suggests that the proposed approach could be implemented the monitor of 30 m LSP over regions with persistent cloud cover.

The seasonal-cycle amplitude (SCA) of the atmosphere–ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange rate is a useful metric of the responsiveness of the terrestrial biosphere to environmental variations. It is unclear, however, what underlying mechanisms are responsible for the observed increasing trend of SCA in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Using output data from the Multi-scale Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we investigated how well the SCA of atmosphere–ecosystem CO2 exchange was simulated with 15 contemporary terrestrial ecosystem models during the period 1901–2010. Also, we made attempt to evaluate the contributions of potential mechanisms such as atmospheric CO2, climate, land-use, and nitrogen deposition, through factorial experiments using different combinations of forcing data. Under contemporary conditions, the simulated global-scale SCA of the cumulative net ecosystem carbon flux of most models was comparable in magnitude with the SCA of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Results from factorial simulation experiments showed that elevated atmospheric CO2 exerted a strong influence on the seasonality amplification. When the model considered not only climate change but also land-use and atmospheric CO2 changes, the majority of the models showed amplification trends of the SCAs of photosynthesis, respiration, and net ecosystem production (+0.19 % to +0.50 % yr−1). In the case of land-use change, it was difficult to separate the contribution of agricultural management to SCA because of inadequacies in both the data and models. The simulated amplification of SCA was approximately consistent with the observational evidence of the SCA in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Large inter-model differences remained, however, in the simulated global tendencies and spatial patterns of CO2 exchanges. Further studies are required to identify a consistent explanation for the simulated and observed amplification trends, including their underlying mechanisms. Nevertheless, this study implied that monitoring of ecosystem seasonality would provide useful insights concerning ecosystem dynamics.

GeoNEX is a collaborative project led by scientists from NASA, NOAA, and many other institutes around the world to generate Earth monitoring products using data streams from the latest Geostationary (GEO) sensors including the GOES-16/17 Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI), the Himawari-8/9 Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI), and more. An accurate and consistent product of the Top-Of-Atmosphere (TOA) reflectance and brightness temperature is the starting point in the scientific processing pipeline and has significant influences on the downstream products. This paper describes the main steps and the algorithms in generating the GeoNEX TOA products, starting from the conversion of digital numbers to physical quantities with the latest radiometric calibration information. We implement algorithms to detect and remove residual georegistration uncertainties automatically in both GOES and Himawari L1bdata, adjust the data for topographic relief, estimate the pixelwise data-acquisition time, and accurately calculate the solar illumination angles for each pixel in the domain at every time step. Finally, we reproject the TOA products to a globally tiled common grid in geographic coordinates in order to facilitate intercomparisons and/or synergies between the GeoNEX products and existing Earth observation datasets from polar-orbiting satellites.

Leaf area index (LAI) and fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) absorbed by vegetation are two of the essential biophysical variables used in most global models of climate, hydrology, biogeochemistry, and ecology. Most LAI/FPAR products are retrieved from non-geostationary satellite observations. Long revisit times and cloud/cloud shadow contamination lead to temporal and spatial gaps in such LAI/FPAR products. For more effective use in monitoring of vegetation phenology, climate change impacts, disaster trend etc., in a timely manner, it is critical to generate LAI/FPAR with less cloud/cloud shadow contamination and at higher temporal resolution—something that is feasible with geostationary satellite data. In this paper, we estimate the geostationary Himawari-8 Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) LAI/FPAR fields by training artificial neural networks (ANNs) with Himawari-8 normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) LAI/FPAR products for each biome type. Daily cycles of the estimated AHI LAI/FPAR products indicate that these are stable at 10-min frequency during the day. Comprehensive evaluations were carried out for the different biome types at different spatial and temporal scales by utilizing the MODIS LAI/FPAR products and the available field measurements. These suggest that the generated Himawari-8 AHI LAI/FPAR fields were spatially and temporally consistent with the benchmark MODIS LAI/FPAR products. We also evaluated the AHI LAI/FPAR products for their potential to accurately monitor the vegetation phenology—the results show that AHI LAI/FPAR products closely match the phenological development captured by the MODIS products.

Projected changes in the frequency and severity of droughts as a result of increase in greenhouse gases have a significant impact on the role of vegetation in regulating the global carbon cycle. Drought effect on vegetation Gross Primary Production (GPP) is usually modeled as a function of Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) and/or soil moisture. Climate projections suggest a strong likelihood of increasing trend in VPD, while regional changes in precipitation are less certain. This difference in projections between VPD and precipitation can cause considerable discrepancies in the predictions of vegetation behavior depending on how ecosystem models represent the drought effect. In this study, we scrutinized the model responses to drought using the 30-year record of Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) 3g Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) dataset. A diagnostic ecosystem model, Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS), was used to estimate global GPP from 1982 to 2009 under nine different experimental simulations. The control run of global GPP increased until 2000, but stayed constant after 2000. Among the simulations with single climate constraint (temperature, VPD, rainfall and solar radiation), only the VPD-driven simulation showed a decrease in 2000s, while the other scenarios simulated an increase in GPP. The diverging responses in 2000s can be attributed to the difference in the representation of the impact of water stress on vegetation in models, i.e., using VPD and/or precipitation. Spatial map of trend in simulated GPP using GIMMS 3g data is consistent with the GPP driven by soil moisture than the GPP driven by VPD, confirming the need for a soil moisture constraint in modeling global GPP.

Algorithms that use remotely-sensed vegetation indices to estimate gross primary production (GPP), a key component of the global carbon cycle, have gained a lot of popularity in the past decade. Yet despite the amount of research on the topic, the most appropriate approach is still under debate. As an attempt to address this question, we compared the performance of different vegetation indices from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in capturing the seasonal and the annual variability of GPP estimates from an optimal network of 21 FLUXNET forest towers sites. The tested indices include the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Leaf Area Index (LAI), and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by plant canopies (FPAR). Our results indicated that single vegetation indices captured 50–80% of the variability of tower-estimated GPP, but no one index performed universally well in all situations. In particular, EVI outperformed the other MODIS products in tracking seasonal variations in tower-estimated GPP, but annual mean MODIS LAI was the best estimator of the spatial distribution of annual flux-tower GPP (GPP = 615 × LAI − 376, where GPP is in g C/m2/year). This simple algorithm rehabilitated earlier approaches linking ground measurements of LAI to flux-tower estimates of GPP and produced annual GPP estimates comparable to the MODIS 17 GPP product. As such, remote sensing-based estimates of GPP continue to offer a useful alternative to estimates from biophysical models, and the choice of the most appropriate approach depends on whether the estimates are required at annual or sub-annual temporal resolution.

Earth observations collected by remote sensors provide unique information to our ever-growing knowledge of the terrestrial biosphere. Yet, retrieving information from remote sensing data requires sophisticated processing and demands a better understanding of the underlying physics. This paper reviews research efforts that lead to the developments of the stochastic radiative transfer equation (RTE) and the spectral invariants theory. The former simplifies the characteristics of canopy structures with a pair-correlation function so that the 3D information can be succinctly packed into a 1D equation. The latter indicates that the interactions between photons and canopy elements converge to certain invariant patterns quantifiable by a few wavelength independent parameters, which satisfy the law of energy conservation. By revealing the connections between plant structural characteristics and photon recollision probability, these developments significantly advance our understanding of the transportation of radiation within vegetation canopies. They enable a novel physically-based algorithm to simulate the “hot-spot„ phenomenon of canopy bidirectional reflectance while conserving energy, a challenge known to the classic radiative transfer models. Therefore, these theoretical developments have a far-reaching influence in optical remote sensing of the biosphere.

NASA has launched the decade-long Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE). While the initial phases focus on field and airborne data collection, early integration with modeling activities is important to benefit future modeling syntheses. We compiled feedback from ecosystem modeling teams on key data needs, which encompass carbon biogeochemistry, vegetation, permafrost, hydrology, and disturbance dynamics. A suite of variables was identified as part of this activity with a critical requirement that they are collected concurrently and representatively over space and time. Individual projects in ABoVE may not capture all these needs, and thus there is both demand and opportunity for the augmentation of field observations, and synthesis of the observations that are collected, to ensure that science questions and integrated modeling activities are successfully implemented.

Land cover (LC) refers to the physical and biological cover present over the Earth’s surface in terms of the natural environment such as vegetation, water, bare soil, etc. Most LC features occur at finer spatial scales compared to the resolution of primary remote sensing satellites. Therefore, observed data are a mixture of spectral signatures of two or more LC features resulting in mixed pixels. One solution to the mixed pixel problem is the use of subpixel learning algorithms to disintegrate the pixel spectrum into its constituent spectra. Despite the popularity and existing research conducted on the topic, the most appropriate approach is still under debate. As an attempt to address this question, we compared the performance of several subpixel learning algorithms based on least squares, sparse regression, signal–subspace and geometrical methods. Analysis of the results obtained through computer-simulated and Landsat data indicated that fully constrained least squares (FCLS) outperformed the other techniques. Further, FCLS was used to unmix global Web-Enabled Landsat Data to obtain abundances of substrate (S), vegetation (V) and dark object (D) classes. Due to the sheer nature of data and computational needs, we leveraged the NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) high-performance computing architecture to optimize and scale our algorithm for large-scale processing. Subsequently, the S-V-D abundance maps were characterized into four classes, namely forest, farmland, water and urban areas (in conjunction with nighttime lights data) over California, USA using a random forest classifier. Validation of these LC maps with the National Land Cover Database 2011 products and North American Forest Dynamics static forest map shows a 6% improvement in unmixing-based classification relative to per-pixel classification. As such, abundance maps continue to offer a useful alternative to high-spatial-resolution classified maps for forest inventory analysis, multi-class mapping, multi-temporal trend analysis, etc.

Climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its consequent impacts on land carbon sink interannual variability have been used as a basis for investigating carbon cycle responses to climate variability more broadly, and to inform the sensitivity of the tropical carbon budget to climate change. Past studies have presented opposing views about whether temperature or precipitation is the primary factor driving the response of the land carbon sink to ENSO. Here, we show that the dominant driver varies with ENSO phase. Whereas tropical temperature explains sink dynamics following El Niño conditions ( r _TG,P = 0.59, p

We examined natural and anthropogenic controls on terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) changes from 1982 to 2010 using multiple estimates from remote sensing-based datasets and process-oriented land surface models. A significant increasing trend of ET in each hemisphere was consistently revealed by observationally-constrained data and multi-model ensembles that considered historic natural and anthropogenic drivers. The climate impacts were simulated to determine the spatiotemporal variations in ET. Globally, rising CO _2 ranked second in these models after the predominant climatic influences, and yielded decreasing trends in canopy transpiration and ET, especially for tropical forests and high-latitude shrub land. Increasing nitrogen deposition slightly amplified global ET via enhanced plant growth. Land-use-induced ET responses, albeit with substantial uncertainties across the factorial analysis, were minor globally, but pronounced locally, particularly over regions with intensive land-cover changes. Our study highlights the importance of employing multi-stream ET and ET-component estimates to quantify the strengthening anthropogenic fingerprint in the global hydrologic cycle.