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We evaluate electronic monitoring as an alternative to prison for non-violent offenses. Leveraging plausibly exogenous variation in sentencing outcomes generated by quasirandom assignment of judges, we find electronic monitoring reduces reoffending at both extensive and intensive margins. Compared with prison, electronic monitoring is estimated to reduce the probability of reoffending by 22 percentage points 5 years after sentencing and by 11 percentage points 10 years after sentencing, with the cumulative number of offenses reduced by 45 percent 10 years after sentencing. These results demonstrate that electronic monitoring can have sustained crime-reducing effects.

Introduction Considerable evidence supports an association between poor impulse control (impulsivity) and violent crime. Furthermore, impulsivity and aggression has been associated with reduced levels of serotonergic activity in the brain. Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) are a class of anti depressants that aim to regulate brain serotonin concentrations. Several small studies in psychiatric populations have administered SSRIs to impulsive -aggressive individuals, resulting in reduced impulsivity, anger, aggression and depression. However, no clinical trial has been undertaken in a criminal justice population. This protocol describes the design and implementation of the first systematic study of the potential benefits of SSRIs in impulsive -violent offenders who are at high risk of reoffending. Methods and analysis A randomised, double-blinded, multicentre trial to test the clinical efficacy of an SSRI, sertraline hydrochloride, compared with placebo on recidivism and behavioural measures (including impulsivity, anger, aggression, depression and self-reported offending) over 12 months. 460 participants with histories of violence and screening positive for impulsivity are recruited at several local courts and correctional service offices in New South Wales, Australia. Ethics and dissemination Results will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal. Possible implications of the effectiveness of this pharmacological intervention include economic benefits of reducing prison costs and societal benefits of improving safety. This study has received ethical approval from the University of New South Wales, Aboriginal Health Medical Research Council, Corrective Services NSW and the NSW Justice Health and Forensic Mental Health Network. Trial registration number ACTRN12613000442707.

Aim: To examine the specific deterrent effect of offender supervision on the risk of a further offence by persons convicted of amphetamine use and/or possession. Design: Observational study of two groups matched on a wide range of factors using augmented inverse probability of treatment weighting. Setting: New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Participants: A total of 2099 persons convicted of amphetamine use and/or possession and placed on either a supervised good behaviour bond (1004) or a bond without supervision (1096). Measurements: Conviction for another amphetamine use/possession offence, any drug offence, assault or theft within 48 months free time after the index court appearance. Findings: Only two of the treatment estimates were consistent with a deterrent effect. Where the outcome was an assault offence, the estimated reduction in risk of re-offending was 1%. Where the outcome was a theft offence, the estimated reduction in the risk of reoffending was 0.07%. Neither result was statistically significant. The coefficients measuring the effect of supervision on the remaining two outcomes (use/possess amphetamine and use/possess any drug) were both positive and not statistically significant. Conclusion: Correctional supervision does not appear to have been effective in New South Wales, Australia, in reducing the risk of reoffending among people convicted of amphetamine use/possession.

Introduction and Aims: In 2019, legislation was introduced allowing New South Wales police to issue Criminal Infringement Notices (CIN) instead of criminal charges for prohibited drug possession offences, excluding cannabis leaf. This initiative was trialled across NSW music festivals from 25 January to 1 August 2019. This paper aims to examine the number of CINs administered and to estimate the associated (actual and potential) savings. Design and Methods: Data were obtained from the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (Recorded Crime Statistics, Reoffending Database). To estimate the monetary savings associated with administering CINs for drug possession offences, as opposed to processing them through the criminal justice system, data were obtained from the 2020 Report on Government Services. Results: From January to June 2019, 300 CINs were issued for illicit drug possession (mostly for ecstasy possession; n = 256), resulting in an estimated saving to the criminal justice system of 194 400 AUD (or 314 400, if generated revenue included). We estimate that issuing CINs for all illicit drug possession offences would have provided savings of over 5 million AUD in that same six-month period, or approximately 1.7 million AUD if CINs were only issued to people with no prior convictions. Discussion and Conclusion: Issuing CINs for illicit drug possession has the potential to yield substantial monetary savings. However, to avoid unintended consequences (e.g. disproportionate impact on disadvantaged populations), we would argue that police also be given the discretion to issue cautions for illicit drug possession offences.

Objective: To examine the specific deterrent effect of prison on driving under the influence of alcohol (DUI) recidivism. Method: The study outcomes were the probabilities of DUI re-offending over 6 months, 24 months and 5 years ‘free time’ (i.e. time not spent in custody). The comparison group consisted of offenders convicted of DUI offending who received a suspended sentence of imprisonment. The effect of imprisonment was examined in a series of 2SLS models; employing an extensive set of controls (age, gender, race, remoteness of residence, socioeconomic status, legal representation, number of concurrent offences, DUI blood alcohol range, number of prior court appearances, prior penalties) and variation in the judicial proclivity to imprison convicted drunk drive offenders as an instrument to identify the effect of prison on DUI re-offending. Results: Our free-time analyses reveal no evidence that imprisonment reduces the risk of DUI recidivism. Separate analyses for first-time DUI offenders revealed a slight (5%) reduction in re-offending over 24 months free time but no effect over 5 years. Conclusion: We conclude that the funds currently spent on imprisoning DUI offenders could be more fruitfully be invested in measures that show more promise in reducing DUI recidivism.

The spread of COVID-19 has prompted Governments around the world to impose draconian restrictions on business activity, public transport, and public freedom of movement. The effect of these restrictions appears to vary from country to country and, in some cases, from one area to another within a country. This paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 restrictions imposed in New South Wales (NSW) by the State Government. We examine week-to-week changes in 13 categories of crime (and four aggregated categories) from 2 January 2017 to 28 June 2020. Rather than using the pre-intervention data to make a forecast and then comparing that with what is actually observed, we use a Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) approach to model the entire time series. Our results are broadly in accord with those of other studies, but we find no effect of the lockdown (upward or downward) on domestic assault. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40163-021-00160-x.

Between 2000 and 2019, the number of inmates in Australian prisons grew from 21,714 in 2000 to 43,028 in 2019, an increase of 98%, or in per capita terms, 48%. Much of this increase occurred between 2012 and 2019. In New South Wales (NSW), for example, the prison population rose by 17% in the 11 years between 2000 and 2011, but then grew a further 39% in the eight years between 2012 and 2019. A similar acceleration in inmate numbers occurred in other States and Territories after 2011. In this article, we examine the contribution of sentencing, bail, policing policy and crime to the rapid rise in NSW imprisonment rates. We cite evidence showing that the likelihood of bail refusal has changed very little over the period when imprisonment rates rose, we find no evidence of a significant change in the length of sentences and no evidence of an increase in the likelihood of a prison sentence once changes in sentence-relevant factors are taken into account. Most of the increase in imprisonment rates appears to be due to changes in policing policy and (to a lesser extent) certain types of crime.

Background: To quantify the extent to which methamphetamine use is associated with increases in crime net of any premorbid risk of criminality among people who use the drug. Methods: Four one-month data panels from 469 participants dependent on methamphetamine were drawn from the MATES cohort (N = 501). Odds ratios for within-person effects were extracted from a random intercept logistic regression model for crime during periods of methamphetamine use compared to no use. Effects were adjusted for time-varying measures of age, other substance use, and socio-economic disadvantage (income, unemployment and unstable accommodation). Involvement in crime (property crime, drug dealing, fraud, violent crime) and days of methamphetamine in the past month were assessed using the Opiate Treatment Index. Results: Crime was more likely during months when participants used methamphetamine compared to when they did not (OR 13.2 95% CI 8.5–20.6; AOR 4.7 95% CI 2.8–8.0), this reflecting more property crime (OR 10.6 95% CI 6.3–18.0; AOR 5.5 95% CI 2.8–10.8), violent crime (OR 8.2 95% CI 4.2–15.9; AOR 3.4 95% CI 1.5–8.0), fraud (OR 3.4, 95% CI 2.0–5.8; AOR 1.7 95% CI 0.8–3.3) and dealing drugs (OR 18.2 95% CI 10.2–32.5; AOR 5.9 95% CI 3.0–11.9), although the adjusted relationship for fraud was not significant. Effects were dose related. Conclusions: The use of methamphetamine was associated with significant increases in crime beyond premorbid risk for criminality. Crime is a likely social consequence of methamphetamine use and efforts are needed to reduce this impact.

Despite an abundance of empirical evidence on crime spanning over 40 years, there exists no consensus on the impact of the criminal justice system on crime activity. We construct a new panel data set that contains all relevant variables prescribed by economic theory. Our identification strategy allows for a feedback relationship between crime and deterrence variables, and it controls for omitted variables and measurement error. We deviate from the majority of the literature in that we specify a dynamic model, which captures the essential feature of habit formation and persistence in aggregate behaviour. Our results show that the criminal justice system exerts a large influence on crime activity. Increasing the risk of apprehension and conviction is more influential in reducing crime than raising the expected severity of punishment.

It is inevitable that some people granted conditional release will (re)offend, but most will complete their order without incident. Nevertheless, the standard approach adopted by correctional agencies to communicating with the public about community corrections is one of minimal information. We suggest that this may create an impression that offenders are dark shadowy figures incapable of change or redemption. To address this, we set out an agenda for Australian governments to build public confidence in community corrections. We call for more robust program evaluation, publication of the results and regular updates on trends in successful order completion. We also highlight the importance of educating the public about crime and corrections and the need to improve the credibility of community corrections. Finally, governments should do more to humanise offenders. The public has a right to know more about how offenders are managed in the community. They also deserve to hear the stories behind the statistics.

During the 1990s, many jurisdictions introduced police cautions as an alternative to referral to court for juveniles committing comparatively minor offences. The policy was motivated by a concern that contact with the court system for such offenders might be criminogenic. In recent years, however, elected officials have criticised police cautions as a ‘soft option’ and this (in some jurisdictions at least) has led to a decline in their use. Past research has often failed to ensure that the comparison group for a police caution consists of children referred to court who could have received a police caution. The current study overcomes this problem and employs a rigorous set of procedures for minimising the risk of selection bias. Our results indicate that cautioning young offenders who have committed comparatively minor offences and who have not previously been referred to court results in a lower risk of reoffending than referral to court. We conclude that restrictions on the use of cautions in these circumstances could increase the risk of juvenile reoffending.

Background: Evidence on the effectiveness of opioid agonist treatment (OAT) in reducing crime is mixed. We aimed to assess the effect of OAT on crime in terms of delaying time to first charge and reducing overall charge rates, as well as the relationship between OAT retention and overall charge rates. Methods: We did a retrospective cohort study of opioid-dependent people who entered OAT for the first time between Jan 1, 2004, and Dec 30, 2010, in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. We used three linked NSW and national administrative datasets. Data on OAT were obtained from the Pharmaceutical Drugs of Addiction System, data on charges were obtained from the Reoffending Database, and data on mortality were obtained from the National Death Index. The cohort was followed up until Dec 31, 2011. Time-dependent OAT exposure was modelled using Cox proportional hazards models (time to first charge) and Andersen-Gill intensity models (total charge-days). Retention in OAT was modelled using two features of treatment engagement, number of OAT episodes and proportion of follow-up time in OAT (presented in quartile groupings: lowest, low-mid, low-high, highest) using zero-inflated negative binomial regression (total charges). All models were adjusted for sociodemographic, criminographic, and treatment-related variables. Findings: 10 744 new OAT entrants were included in the study. 5751 (53·5%) people were charged with an offence. In adjusted analyses, OAT was associated with an initial benefit in delaying the time to first charge (hazard ratio 0·43, 95% CI 0·33–0·55) and reducing total charge-days (0·39, 95% CI 0·30–0·52); however, these protective effects reduced over time. Total charge rates were higher as the number of OAT episodes increased (incident rate ratio [IRR] 1·13, 95% CI 1·11–1·15), and when relatively lower proportions of time were spent in OAT (IRR among the lowest three quartiles ranged from 1·11 [95% CI 1·02–1·21] to 1·22 [95% CI 1·12–1·33]). Interpretation: OAT

The period between 2002 and 2016 saw substantial reductions in a number of major categories of crime in Australia, including murder, robbery, break and enter, motor vehicle theft and ‘other’ theft. One might expect the Australian imprisonment rate to have fallen too, but it did not. Over the same period, the Australian imprisonment rate grew by 36%. Most commentators assume the growth in imprisonment rates is due to the growth in punitive penal policies. Little attention has been paid to the influence of crime and policing policy. In this article I present evidence that much of the growth in imprisonment rates stems from rising rates of drug use/drug trafficking and changes in policing policy vis-à-vis family violence and child sexual assault.

Recent studies have found evidence of a racial bias in sentencing in Australia despite previous work showing the opposite. However, in some cases, these studies fail to adjust properly for differences in offence seriousness and in others fail to control for important covariates. Our aim in this study was to investigate the relationship between Indigenous status and likelihood of imprisonment for serious assault offences, matching on offence seriousness and controlling for additional covariates. Multivariate logistic regression with generalized estimating equations was used to explore the effect of Indigenous status on the likelihood of a prison sentence while controlling for the other sentence-relevant factors. Interaction effects were examined by fitting a logistic regression model with all covariates separately for Indigenous and non-Indigenous offenders and comparing the coefficient of each covariate for differences. The results show that the marginal increase in the risk of a prison sentence for Indigenous offenders is less than one percentage point (3.40% for Indigenous offenders compared with 2.45% for non-Indigenous). Significant interaction effects between Indigenous status and whether or not the offence was domestic violence related (p =.024), whether or not the offence was committed after 2011 (p =.020) and whether or not the offender had previously been issue a community service order for a serious assault offence (p =.025) were found, each of which altered the probability of imprisonment. Despite this, no interaction effect was found that resulted in a difference in marginal probability of imprisonment greater than 1.2 percentage points between Indigenous and non-Indigenous offenders. We conclude that while there is a significant effect of Indigenous status on sentencing, the effect is vastly reduced when controlling for additional covariates.

During the 1990s, many jurisdictions introduced police cautions as an alternative to referral to court for juveniles committing comparatively minor offences. The policy was motivated by a concern that contact with the court system for such offenders might be criminogenic. In recent years, however, elected officials have criticised police cautions as a ‘soft option’ and this (in some jurisdictions at least) has led to a decline in their use. Past research has often failed to ensure that the comparison group for a police caution consists of children referred to court who could have received a police caution. The current study overcomes this problem and employs a rigorous set of procedures for minimising the risk of selection bias. Our results indicate that cautioning young offenders who have committed comparatively minor offences and who have not previously been referred to court results in a lower risk of reoffending than referral to court. We conclude that restrictions on the use of cautions in these circumstances could increase the risk of juvenile reoffending.

Background Australian and international street-level drug law enforcement deploy many strategies in efforts to prevent or deter illicit drug offending. Limited evidence of deterrence exists. This study assessed the likely impacts of four Australian policing strategies on the incidence and nature of drug use and supply at a common policing target: outdoor music festivals. Methods A purpose-built national online survey (the Drug Policing Survey) was constructed using five hypothetical experimental vignettes that took into account four policing strategies (High Visibility Policing, Riot Policing, Collaborative Policing, and policing with Drug Detection Dogs) and a counter-factual (no police presence). The survey was administered in late 2015 to 2115 people who regularly attend festivals. Participants were block-randomised to receive two vignettes and asked under each whether they would use, possess, purchase, give or sell illicit drugs. Results Compared to ‘no police presence’, any police presence led to a 4.6% point reduction in engagement in overall illicit drug offending: reducing in particular willingness to possess or carry drugs into a festival. However, it had minimal or counterproductive impacts on purchasing and supply. For example, given police presence, purchasing of drugs increased significantly within festival grounds. Offending impacts varied between the four policing strategies: Drug Detection Dogs most reduced drug possession but High Visibility Policing most reduced overall drug offending including supply. Multivariate logistic regression showed police presence was not the most significant predictor of offending decisions at festivals. ConclusionConclusion The findings suggest that street-level policing may deter some forms of drug offending at music festivals, but that most impacts will be small. Moreover, it may encourage some perverse impacts such as drug consumers opting to buy drugs within festival grounds rather than carry in their own. We use ou

© 2014 Gisev et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. Background: Although Indigenous Australians are over-represented among heroin users, there has been no study examining offending, time in custody, and opioid substitution therapy (OST) treatment utilisation among Indigenous opioid-dependent (including heroin) people at the population level, nor comparing these to non-Indigenous opioid-dependent people. The aims of this study were to compare the nature and types of charges, time in custody and OST treatment utilisation between opioid-dependent Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians in contact with the criminal justice system. Methods: This was a population-based, retrospective data linkage study using records of OST entrants in New South Wales, Australia (1985-2010), court appearances (1993-2011) and custody episodes (2000-2012). Charge rates per 100 person-years were compared between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians by sex, age and calendar year. Statistical comparisons were made for variables describing the cumulative time and percentage of follow-up time spent in custody, as well as characteristics of OST initiation and overall OST treatment utilisation. Results: Of the 34,962 people in the cohort, 6,830 (19.5%) were Indigenous and 28,132 (80.5%) non-Indigenous. Among the 6,830 Indigenous people, 4,615 (67.6%) were male and 2,215 (32.4%) female. The median number of charges per person against Indigenous people (25, IQR 31) was significantly greater than non-Indigenous people (9, IQR 16) (p < 0.001). Overall, Indigenous people were charged with 33.2% of the total number of charges against the cohort and 44.0% of all violent offences. The median percentage of follow-up time that Indigenous males and females spent in custody was twice that of non-Indigenous males (21.7% vs. 10.1%, p < 0.001) and females (6.0% vs. 2.9%, p < 0.001). The percentage of Indigenous people who first commenced OST in prison (30.2%) was three times that of non-Indigenous p

Aims: Release from prison is a high-risk period for mortality. We examined the impact of opioid substitution therapy (OST), for opioid dependence during and after incarceration, upon mortality post-release. Design: A cohort was formed of all opioid-dependent people who entered OST between 1985 and 2010 and who, following first OST entry, were released from prison at least once between 2000 and 2012. We linked data on OST history, court and prison records and deaths. Setting: New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Participants: A total of 16453 people released from prison 60161 times. Measurements: Crude mortality rates (CMRs) were calculated according to OST retention; multivariable Cox regressions for post-release periods were undertaken to examine the association between OST exposure (a time-dependent variable) and mortality post-release, for which covariates were updated per-release. Findings: There were 100978 person-years (PY) post-release; 1050 deaths occurred. Most received OST while incarcerated (76.5%); individuals were receiving OST in 51% of releases. Lowest post-release mortality was among those continuously retained in OST post-release CMR 4 weeks post-release=6.4 per 1000 PY; 95% confidence interval (CI)=5.2, 7.8, highest among those with no OST (CMR=36.7 per 1000 PY; 95% CI=28.8, 45.9). Multi-factorial models showed OST exposure in the 4 weeks post-release reduced hazard of death by 75% (adjusted hazard ratio 0.25; 95% CI=0.12, 0.53); OST receipt in prison had a short-term protective effect that decayed quickly across time. Conclusion: In New South Wales, Australia, opioid substitution therapy in prison and post-release appears to reduce mortality risk in the immediate post-release period. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Objective: There are few data about the incarceration of opioid-dependent people involving large representative cohorts. We aimed to determine the prevalence and duration of incarceration in a large cohort of opioid-dependent people in Australia using data linkage methods, and estimate the costs associated with their incarceration. Method: Retrospective linkage study of all entrants to opioid substitution therapy (OST) for the treatment of opioid dependence in NSW, 1985-2010, with data on incarceration, 2000-2012. The number and duration of incarcerations were calculated. The average daily cost of incarceration was applied to days of incarceration in the cohort. Results: Among 47,196 opioid-dependent people, 37% (43% of men and 24% of women) had at least one episode of incarceration lasting one or more days. Men had a median of three (ranging between 1-47) incarcerations, and women, two (1-35). Indigenous men spent 23% of follow-up time incarcerated, compared with 8% for non-Indigenous men; similarly, Indigenous women spent a substantially greater proportion of time incarcerated than non-Indigenous women (8% vs. 2%). Costs of incarceration of this cohort between 2000 and 2012 totalled nearly AUD$3 billion. Conclusions: This is the first study to examine incarceration of opioid-dependent people across an entire population of such users. Our findings suggest that a substantial minority of opioid-dependent people experience incarceration, usually on multiple occasions and at significant cost. Treatment for opioid dependence, inside and outside prisons, may help reduce incarceration of this cohort. © 2013 The Authors. ANZJPH © 2013 Public Health Association of Australia.

In New South Wales, Australia, a cost-effectiveness evaluation was conducted of an adult drug court (ADC) program as an alternative to jail for criminal offenders addicted to illicit drugs. This article describes the program, the cost-effectiveness analysis, and the results. The results of this study reveal that, for the 23-month period of the evaluation, the ADC was as cost-effective as were conventional sanctions in delaying the time to the first offense and more cost-effective in reducing the frequency of offending for those outcome measures selected. Although the evaluation was conducted using the traditional steps of a cost-effectiveness analysis, because of the complexity of the program and data limitations it was not always possible to adhere to textbook procedures. As such, each step involved in undertaking the cost-effectiveness analysis is discussed, highlighting the key issues faced in the evaluation. © 2004 Sage Publications.

Abstract We evaluate electronic monitoring as an alternative to prison for nonviolent offenses. Leveraging plausibly exogenous variation in sentencing outcomes generated by quasi-random assignment of judges, we find electronic monitoring reduces reoffending at both extensive and intensive margins. Compared with prison, electronic monitoring is estimated to reduce the probability of reoffending by 22 percentage points five years after sentencing and by 11 percentage points ten years after sentencing, with the cumulative number of offenses reduced by 45% ten years after sentencing. These results demonstrate that electronic monitoring has sustained crime-reducing effects.

It is well known that there is no consensus with respect to the relationship between unemployment and crime. As well, there is very little research on the linkages between crime and the educational experiences of young people. In this paper we show a very strong positive relationship between criminal activity and the extent of youth male long-term unemployment. We also show that criminal activity is negatively associated with high school completions, and positively associated with high school non-completion rates. The analysis suggests that labour market and education policies have the potential to significantly reduce property crime. However, increased high school participation of the targeted group only decreases crime if it results in graduation. This suggests that the effectiveness of education policy is a critical influence on crime activity, a unique finding for the literature.

It is well known that there is no consensus with respect to the relationship between unemployment and crime. As well, there is very little research on the linkages between crime and the educational experiences of young people. In this paper we show a very strong positive relationship between criminal activity and the extent of youth male long-term unemployment. We also show that criminal activity is negatively associated with high school completions, and positively associated with high school non-completion rates. The analysis suggests that labour market and education policies have the potential to significantly reduce property crime. However, increased high school participation of the targeted group only decreases crime if it results in graduation. This suggests that the effectiveness of education policy is a critical influence on crime activity, a unique finding for the literature.