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Background Universal access to health care, as provided in the NHS, does not ensure that patients’ needs are met.\ud \ud Aim To explore the relationships between multimorbidity, general practice funding, and workload by deprivation in a national healthcare system.\ud \ud Design and setting Cross-sectional study using routine data from 956 general practices in Scotland.\ud \ud Method Estimated numbers of patients with multimorbidity, estimated numbers of consultations per 1000 patients, and payments to practices per patient are presented and analysed by deprivation decile at practice level.\ud \ud Results Levels of multimorbidity rose with practice deprivation. Practices in the most deprived decile had 38% more patients with multimorbidity compared with the least deprived (222.8 per 1000 patients versus 161.1; P

Objectives: A policy model is a model that can evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions and inform policy decisions. In this study, we introduce a cardiovascular disease (CVD) policy model which can be used to model remaining life expectancy including a measure of socioeconomic deprivation as an independent risk factor for CVD.\ud \ud Design: A state transition model was developed using the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort (SHHEC) linked to Scottish morbidity and death records. Individuals start in a CVD-free state and can transit to three CVD event states plus a non-CVD death state. Individuals who have a non-fatal first event are then followed up until death. Taking a competing risk approach, the cause-specific hazards of a first event are modelled using parametric survival analysis. Survival following a first non-fatal event is also modelled parametrically. We assessed discrimination, validation and calibration of our model.\ud \ud Results: Our model achieved a good level of discrimination in each component (c-statistics for men (women)—non-fatal coronary heart disease (CHD): 0.70 (0.74), non-fatal cerebrovascular disease (CBVD): 0.73 (0.76), fatal CVD: 0.77 (0.80), fatal non-CVD: 0.74 (0.72), survival after non-fatal CHD: 0.68 (0.67) and survival after non-fatal CBVD: 0.65 (0.66)). In general, our model predictions were comparable with observed event rates for a Scottish randomised statin trial population which has an overlapping follow-up period with SHHEC. After applying a calibration factor, our predictions of life expectancy closely match those published in recent national life tables.\ud \ud Conclusions: Our model can be used to estimate the impact of primary prevention interventions on life expectancy and can assess the impact of interventions on inequalities.

Background \ud Lung function successfully predicts subsequent health. Although lung function is known to decline over age, little is known about changes in association with socioeconomic status (SES) throughout life, and whether explanatory factors for association vary with age or patterns for non smokers. \ud \ud Methods \ud Analyses were based on data on 24 500 participants aged ≥ years from the 1995, 1998 and 2003 Scottish Health Surveys who were invited to provide 1 s forced expiratory volume (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) lung measurements. Sex-stratified multiple linear regression assessed lung function–SES (occupational social class) associations and attenuation by covariates in three age groups (2003 data (n=7928)). \ud \ud Results The FEV1–SES patterns were clear (p\ud \ud Conclusions We found cross-sectional evidence that SES disparity in lung function increases with age, especially for men. Our findings indicate that early-life factors may predict inequity during younger adulthood, with environmental factors becoming more important at older ages.

Background Patient 'enablement' is a term closely aligned with 'empowerment' and its measurement in a general practice consultation has been operationalised in the widely used patient enablement instrument (PEI), a patient-rated measure of consultation outcome. However, there is limited knowledge regarding the factors that influence enablement, particularly the effect of socio-economic deprivation. The aim of the study is to assess the factors influencing patient enablement in GP consultations in areas of high and low deprivation.\ud \ud Methods A questionnaire study was carried out on 3,044 patients attending 26 GPs (16 in areas of high socio-economic deprivation and 10 in low deprivation areas, in the west of Scotland). Patient expectation (confidence that the doctor would be able to help) was recorded prior to the consultation. PEI, GP empathy (measured by the CARE Measure), and a range of other measures and variables were recorded after the consultation. Data analysis employed multi-level modelling and multivariate analyses with the PEI as the dependant variable.\ud \ud Results Although numerous variables showed a univariate association with patient enablement, only four factors were independently predictive after multilevel multivariate analysis; patients with multimorbidity of 3 or more long-term conditions (reflecting poor chronic general health), and those consulting about a long-standing problem had reduced enablement scores in both affluent and deprived areas. In deprived areas, emotional distress (GHQ-caseness) had an additional negative effect on enablement. Perceived GP empathy had a positive effect on enablement in both affluent and deprived areas. Maximal patient enablement was never found with low empathy.\ud \ud Conclusions Although other factors influence patient enablement, the patients' perceptions of the doctors' empathy is of key importance in patient enablement in general practice consultations in both high and low deprivation settings.

Objective To investigate the relations between causes of death, social position, and obesity in women who had never smoked.Design Prospective cohort study.Setting Renfrew and Paisley, Scotland.Participants 8353 women and 7049 men aged 45-64 were recruited to the Renfrew and Paisley Study in 1972-6. Of these, 3613 women had never smoked and were the focus of this study. They were categorised by occupational class (I and II, III non-manual, III manual, and IV and V) and body mass index groups (normal weight, overweight, moderately obese, and severely obese).Main outcome measures All cause and cause specific mortality during 28 years of follow-up by occupational class and body mass index, using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age and other confounders.Results The women in lower occupational classes who had never smoked were on average shorter and had poorer lung function and higher systolic blood pressure than women in the higher occupational classes. Overall, 43% (n=1555) were overweight, 14% (n=515) moderately obese, and 5% (n=194) severely obese. Obesity rates were higher in lower occupational classes and much higher in all occupational classes than in current smokers in the full cohort. Half the women died, 51% (n=916) from cardiovascular disease and 27% (n=487) from cancer. Relative to occupational class I and II, all cause mortality rates were more than a third higher in occupational classes III manual (relative rate 1.35, 95% confidence interval 1.16 to 1.57) and IV and V (1.34, 1.17 to 1.55) and largely explained by differences in obesity, systolic blood pressure, and lung function. Similar upward gradients were seen for cardiovascular disease and respiratory disease but not for cancer. Mortality rates were highest in severely obese women in the lowest occupational classes.Conclusions Women who had never smoked and were not obese had the lowest mortality rates, regardless of their social position. Where obesity is socially patterned as in this cohort, it may contribute to health inequalities and increase pressure on health and social services serving more disadvantaged populations

Background: There is widespread, unexplained variation in activity and outcome between general practices.\ud \ud Aim: To explore the relationship between practice size and participation in optional activities, including the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF).\ud \ud Design of study: Cross-sectional analyses of routinely available data on practice characteristics, QOF performance and optional activities including undergraduate teaching, postgraduate training, research, enhanced clinical data collection and service development.\ud \ud Setting: All 1031 general practices were located in mainland Scotland.\ud \ud Results: The most popular optional activity was undergraduate medical teaching, which involved 41% of all general practices. About a third of practices took part in postgraduate general practitioner training (29%), research (33%), enhanced clinical data collection through the Scottish Programme for Improving Clinical Effectiveness (31%) and the activities of the Scottish Primary Care Collaborative (33%). The most important driver of the number of activities undertaken by a practice is size with single handed, small and medium sized practices all undertaking a significantly lower number of activities than larger practices (P < 0.001). Deprivation had no overall effect, but was associated with lower rates of participation in postgraduate training. The average number of points achieved in the QOF ranged from 961 by the 18% of practices taking part in no optional activities, to 973 by 29% of practices taking part in one activity, 984 by 25% of practices taking part in two activities and 985 in 28% of practices taking part in three or more activities. Single handed practices in urban areas taking part in three or more additional activities had similar QOF point totals to larger practices taking part in three or more activities, and achieved 44 more QOF points than urban single-handed practices taking part in less than two additional activities.\ud \ud Conclusions: Practice size is strongly related to participation in optional activities. There is a small but significant relationship between the practice size and number of QOF points achieved by practices taking part in less than two additional activities. Participation in optional activities is a possible indicator of cultural and organisational factors within practices, which constrain the volume and quality of services, which they are able to provide.

Background: Smoking and consuming alcohol are both related to increased mortality risk. Their combined effects on cause-specific mortality were investigated in a prospective cohort study.\ud \ud Methods: Participants were 5771 men aged 35-64, recruited during 1970-73 from various workplaces in Scotland. Data were obtained from a questionnaire and a screening examination. Causes of death were all cause, coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, alcohol-related, respiratory and smoking-related cancer. Participants were divided into nine groups according to their smoking status (never, ex or current) and reported weekly drinking (none, 1-14 units and 15 or more). Cox proportional hazards models were used to obtain relative rates of mortality, adjusted for age and other risk factors.\ud \ud Results: In 30 years of follow-up, 3083 men (53.4%) died. Compared with never smokers who did not drink, men who both smoked and drank 15+ units/week had the highest all-cause mortality (relative rate = 2.71 (95% confidence interval 2.31-3.19)). Relative rates for CHD mortality were high for current smokers, with a possible protective effect of some alcohol consumption in never smokers. Stroke mortality increased with both smoking and alcohol consumption. Smoking affected respiratory mortality with little effect of alcohol. Adjusting for a wide range of confounders attenuated the relative rates but the effects of alcohol and smoking still remained. Premature mortality was particularly high in smokers who drank 15 or more units, with a quarter of the men not surviving to age 65. 30% of men with manual occupations both smoked and drank 15+ units/week compared with only 13% with non-manual ones.\ud \ud Conclusions: Smoking and drinking 15+ units/week was the riskiest behaviour for all causes of death.

Background Practice nurses have a key role within UK general practice, especially since the 2004 GMS contract. This study aimed to describe that role, identify how professionally supported they felt and their career intentions. An additional aim was to explore whether they felt isolated and identify contributory factors.\ud \ud Methods A cross-sectional questionnaire survey in one large urban Scottish Health Board, targeted all practice nurses (n=329). Domains included demographics, workload, training and professional support. Following univariate descriptive statistics, associations between categorical variables were tested using the chi-square test or chi-square test for trend; associations between dichotomous variables were tested using Fisher's Exact test. Variables significantly associated with isolation were entered into a binary logistic regression model using backwards elimination.\ud \ud Results There were 200 responses (61.0% response rate). Most respondents were aged 40 or over and were practice nurses for a median of 10 years. Commonest clinical activities were coronary heart disease management, cervical cytology, diabetes and management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Although most had a Personal Development Plan and a recent appraisal, 103 (52.3%) felt isolated at least sometimes; 30 (15.5%) intended leaving practice nursing within 5 years. Isolated nurses worked in practices with smaller list sizes (p=0.024) and nursing teams (p=0.003); were less likely to have someone they could discuss a clinical/professional (p=0.002) or personal (p\ud \ud Conclusions A significant proportion of practice nurses reported feeling isolated, at least some of the time. They were more likely to be in small practices and more likely to be considering leaving practice nursing. Factors contributing to their isolation were generally located within the practice environment. Providing support to these nurses within their practice setting may help alleviate the feelings of isolation, and could reduce the number considering leaving practice nursing.

Objective: To assess the impact of tobacco smoking on the survival of men and women in different social positions.\ud \ud Design: A cohort observational study.\ud \ud Setting: Renfrew and Paisley, two towns in west central Scotland.\ud \ud Participants: 8353 women and 7049 men aged 45-64 years recruited in 1972-6 (almost 80% of the population in this age group). The cohort was divided into 24 groups by sex (male, female), smoking status (current, former, or never smokers), and social class (classes I + II, III non-manual, III manual, and IV + V) or deprivation category of place of residence.\ud \ud Main outcome measure: Relative mortality (adjusted for age and other risk factors) in the different groups; Kaplan-Meier survival curves and survival rates at 28 years.\ud \ud Results: Of those with complete data, 4387/7988 women and 4891/6967 men died over the 28 years. Compared with women in social classes I + II who had never smoked (the group with lowest mortality), the adjusted relative mortality of smoking groups ranged from 1.7 (95% confidence interval 1.3 to 2.3) to 4.2 (3.3 to 5.5). Former smokers’ mortalities were closer to those of never smokers than those of smokers. By social class (highest first), age adjusted survival rates after 28 years were 65%, 57%, 53%, and 56% for female never smokers; 41%, 42%, 33%, and 35% for female current smokers; 53%, 47%, 38%, and 36% for male never smokers; and 24%, 24%, 19%, and 18% for male current smokers. Analysis by deprivation category gave similar results.\ud \ud Conclusions: Among both women and men, never smokers had much better survival rates than smokers in all social positions. Smoking itself was a greater source of health inequality than social position and nullified women’s survival advantage over men. This suggests the scope for reducing health inequalities related to social position in this and similar populations is limited unless many smokers in lower social positions stop smoking.

Background\ud \ud Public health benefits from research often rely on the use of data from personal medical records. When neither patient consent nor anonymisation is possible, the case for accessing such records for research purposes depends on an assessment of the probabilities of public benefit and individual harm.\ud Methods\ud \ud In the late 1990s, we carried out an observational study which compared the care given to affluent and deprived women with breast cancer. Patient consent was not required at that time for review of medical records, but was obtained later in the process prior to participation in the questionnaire study. We have re-analysed our original results to compare the whole sample with those who later provided consent.\ud Results\ud \ud Two important findings emerged from the re-analysis of our data which if presented initially would have resulted in insufficient and inaccurate reporting. Firstly, the reduced dataset contains no information about women presenting with locally advanced or metastatic cancer and we would have been unable to demonstrate one of our initial key findings: namely a larger number of such women in the deprived group. Secondly, our re-analysis of the consented women shows that significantly more women from deprived areas (51 v 31%, p = 0.018) received radiotherapy compared to women from more affluent areas. Previously published data from the entire sample demonstrated no difference in radiotherapy treatment between the affluent and deprived groups.\ud Conclusion\ud \ud The risk benefit assessment made regarding the use of medical records without consent should include the benefits of obtaining research evidence based on 100% of the population and the possibility of inappropriate or insufficient findings if research is confined to consented populations.

The effects of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) on thrombosis risk, thrombotic variables, and the inflammatory marker C- reactive protein (CRP) may vary by route of administration (oral versus transdermal). We studied the relationships of 14 thrombotic variables (previously related to cardiovascular risk) and CRP to menopausal status and to use of HRT subtypes in a cross-sectional study of 975 women aged 40-59 years. Our study confirmed previously-reported associations between thrombotic variables and menopausal status. Oral HRT use was associated with increased plasma levels of Factor IX, activated protein C (APC) resistance, and CRP; and with decreased levels of tissue plasminogen activator (t-PA) antigen and plasminogen activator inhibitor (PAI) activity. Factor VII levels were higher in women taking unopposed oral oestrogen HRT. The foregoing associations were not observed in users of transdermal HRT; hence they may be consequences of the "first- pass" effect of oral oestrogens on hepatic protein synthesis. We conclude that different effects of oral and transdermal HRT on thrombotic and inflammatory variables may be relevant to their relative thrombotic risk; and suggest that this hypothesis should be tested in prospective, randomised studies.

The prevention and delay of chronic disease is an increasing priority in all advanced health-care systems, but sustainable, effective and equitable approaches remain elusive. In a famous pioneering example in the UK, Julian Tudor Hart combined reactive and anticipatory care within routine consultations in primary medical care, while applying a population approach to delivery and audit. This approach combined the structural advantages of UK general practice, including universal coverage and the absence of\ud user fees, with his long-term commitment to individual patients, and was associated with a 28% reduction in premature mortality over a 25-year period. The more recent, and comprehensively evaluated Scottish National Health Service demonstration project, ‘Have a Heart Paisley’, took a different approach to cardiovascular prevention and health\ud improvement, using population screening for ascertainment, health coaches and referral to specific health improvement programmes for diet, smoking and exercise. We draw\ud from both examples to construct a conceptual framework for anticipatory care, based on active ingredients, programme pathways and whole system approaches. While the strengths of a family practice approach are coverage, continuity, co-ordination and longterm relationships, the larger health improvement programme offered additional resources and expertise. As theory and evidence accrue, the challenge is to combine the strengths of primary medical care and health improvement, in integrated, sustainable systems of anticipatory care, addressing the heterogeneity of individual needs and solutions, while achieving high levels of coverage, continuity, co-ordination and outcome.

Objective: To estimate trends between 1972-6 and 1996 in the prevalences of asthma and hay fever in adults. \ud Design: Two epidemiological surveys 20 years apart. Identical questions were asked about asthma, hay fever, and respiratory symptoms at each survey. \ud Setting: Renfrew and Paisley, two towns in the west of Scotland. \ud Subjects: 1477 married couples aged 45-64 participated in a general population survey in 1972-6; and 2338 offspring aged 30-59 participated in a 1996 survey. Prevalences were compared in 1708 parents and 1124 offspring aged 45-54. \ud Main outcome measures: Prevalences of asthma, hay fever, and respiratory symptoms. \ud Results: In never smokers, age and sex standardised prevalences of asthma and hay fever were 3.0% and 5.8% respectively in 1972-6, and 8.2% and 19.9% in 1996. In ever smokers, the corresponding values were 1.6% and 5.4% in 1972-6 and 5.3% and 15.5% in 1996. In both generations, the prevalence of asthma was higher in those who reported hay fever (atopic asthma). In never smokers, reports of wheeze not labelled as asthma were about 10 times more common in 1972-6 than in 1996. With a broader definition of asthma (asthma and/or wheeze), to minimise diagnostic bias, the overall prevalence of asthma changed little. However, diagnostic bias mainly affected non-atopic asthma. Atopic asthma increased more than twofold (prevalence ratio 2.52 (95% confidence interval 1.01 to 6.28)) whereas the prevalence of non-atopic asthma did not change (1.00 (0.53 to 1.90)). \ud Conclusion: The prevalence of asthma in adults has increased more than twofold in 20 years, largely in association with trends in atopy, as measured indirectly by the prevalence of hay fever. No evidence was found for an increase in diagnostic awareness being responsible for the trend in atopic asthma, but increased awareness may account for trends in non-atopic asthma.

Background The study investigated differences in lung cancer mortality risk between social classes. Methods Twenty years of mortality follow-up were analysed in 7052 men and 8354 women from the Renfrew/Paisley general population study and 4021 working men from the Collaborative study. Results More manual than non-manual men and women smoked, reported morning phlegm, had worse lung function and lived in more deprived areas. Lung cancer mortality rates were higher in manual than non-manual men and women. Significantly higher lung cancer mortality risks were seen for manual compared to non-manual workers when adjusting for age only and adjustment for smoking reduced these risks to 1.41 (95% CI : 1.12-1.77) for men in the Renfrew/Paisley study, 1.28 (95% CI : 0.94-1.75) for women in the Renfrew/Paisley study and 1.43 (95% CI: 1.02-2.01) for men in the Collaborative study. Adjustment for lung function, phlegm and deprivation category attenuated the risks which were of borderline significance for men in the Renfrew/Paisley study and non significant for women in the Renfrew/Paisley study and men in the Collaborative study. Adding extra socioeconomic variables, available in the Collaborative study only, reduced the difference between the manual and non-manual social classes completely. Conclusions There is a difference in lung cancer risk between social classes, in addition to the effect of smoking. This can be explained by poor lung health, deprivation and poor socioeconomic conditions throughout life. As well as anti-smoking measures, reducing socioeconomic inequalities and targeting individuals with poor lung function for help with smoking cessation could help reduce future lung cancer incidence and mortality.