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The Turkana jet is an equatorial low-level jet (LLJ) in East Africa. The jet influences both flooding and droughts, and powers Africa's largest wind farm. Much of what we know about the jet, including the characteristics of its diurnal cycle, derives from reanalysis simulations that are not constrained by radiosonde observations in the region. Here, we report the characteristics of the Turkana jet with data from a field campaign during March–April 2021: The Radiosonde Investigation for the Turkana Jet (RIFTJet). The southeasterly jet forms on average at 380 m above the surface, with mean speeds of 15.0 m s−1. The strongest low-level winds are during the night and early morning from 0300 to 0600 LT (>16 m s−1). The average wind profile retains a characteristic low-level jet structure throughout the day, with the low-level wind maximum weakening to a minimum of 10.9 m s−1 at 1500 LT. There is significant shear, of up to 1.5 m s−1 (100 m)−1 maintained through the 1000 m above the wind maximum. The diurnal cycle of the jet is associated with the nocturnal strengthening and lowering of elevated subsidence inversions, which form above the jet. Reanalysis simulations (ERA5 and MERRA-2) do not capture the daytime persistence of the jet and underestimate the speed of the jet throughout the diurnal cycle. The largest absolute errors of over 4.5 m s−1 (−35%) occur at 0900 LT. The reanalyses also fail to simulate the elevated subsidence inversions above the jet and associated dry layer in the lower troposphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in relation to 1‐min automatic weather station data for 2 years over the city of Yaounde. The focus is on characterising the atmospheric variability associated with MCS activity while distinguishing the days with and without MCS activities. This paper aims to determine the diurnal cycles of occurrence frequencies and percentages of rainfall, relative humidity, dew point temperature, solar radiation, temperature, and wind speed for days with and without MCSs. There are more than 623 MCS events during the study period (over 150 events per rainy season). The link between MCS activity and regional‐scale circulation and atmospheric instability is investigated. The diurnal cycle of the number of MCSs shows a maximum in the afternoon (around 1,600–2,200 LT), a morning minimum (around 0700–1,300 LT), and substantial activity during the night. Surface relative humidity is 5% lower on non‐MCS days, surface dew point 2% higher on MCS days between 0700 and 1800 hr, and solar radiation higher on MCS days between 0500 and 1000 hr. The percentage of rainfall associated with MCSs can exceed 60% on an annual scale and up to 80% on a seasonal scale. MCS activity is associated with instability in the lower troposphere, and this convective instability is maximal during the peak of the MCS activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainfall over the southern African tropical boundary is highly variable, particularly around the onset of the summer rains. However, understanding of the causes of variability in onset timing is poor. A lack of observational data in the region is compounded by the complexity of climate dynamics and variability at the interface of the tropics and the midlatitudes. The key to onset over the region is the Congo air boundary (CAB), a distinguishing circulation feature present in September and declining in frequency until November. The CAB is crucial to early season rainfall; precipitation is broadly inhibited when the CAB is present, while its breakdown allows large-scale rainfall and onset over central southern Africa. This work identifies a remote midlatitude influence on the timing of CAB breakdown using the high-resolution reanalysis dataset ERA5. Propagating and (upstream) breaking low-wavenumber Rossby waves in the Southern Hemisphere westerly jet are shown to be related to >70% of breakdown events. Breakdown is forced by 1) the replacement of subsidence over eastern southern Africa with synoptically forced ascent and 2) wind field modification that leads to positive 850-hPa continental convergence anomalies and enhanced moisture advection from the Congo basin and Indian Ocean. Upper-level anticyclonic vorticity tendency induced by enhanced convection slows Rossby wave propagation aloft, contributing to wave breaking and the persistence of conditions favorable to convection. The identification of this midlatitude influence on CAB breakdown reveals new potential sources of predictability for onset and demonstrates the significant equatorward extent of midlatitude influences to the tropical edge. Significance Statement: This study aims to improve our understanding of the causes of variability in the start date of the summer rainy season in central southern Africa. The research reveals that certain upper-level waves in the Southern Hemisphere westerly jet are associated with patterns of weather that force a large-scale transition from dry pre-onset conditions to widespread rainfall in a time scale of 2–5 days, and that these waves account for a large proportion of such transitions. This finding is of interest to subseasonal weather forecasters and may help to improve the long-range forecasting of onset date. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The oceans play a key role in climate regulation especially in part buffering (neutralising) the effects of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising global temperatures. This chapter examines how the regulatory processes performed by the oceans alter as a response to climate change and assesses the extent to which positive feedbacks from the ocean may exacerbate climate change. There is clear evidence for rapid change in the oceans. As the main heat store for the world there has been an accelerating change in sea temperatures over the last few decades, which has contributed to rising sea-level. The oceans are also the main store of carbon dioxide (CO2), and are estimated to have taken up approximately 40% of anthropogenic-sourced CO2 from the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution. A proportion of the carbon uptake is exported via the four ocean 'carbon pumps' (Solubility, Biological, Continental Shelf and Carbonate Counter) to the deep ocean reservoir. Increases in sea temperature and changing planktonic systems and ocean currents may lead to a reduction in the uptake of CO2 by the ocean; some evidence suggests a suppression of parts of the marine carbon sink is already underway. While the oceans have buffered climate change through the uptake of CO2 produced by fossil fuel burning this has already had an impact on ocean chemistry through ocean acidification and will continue to do so. Feedbacks to climate change from acidification may result from expected impacts on marine organisms (especially corals and calcareous plankton), ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles. The polar regions of the world are showing the most rapid responses to climate change. As a result of a strong ice-ocean influence, small changes in temperature, salinity and ice cover may trigger large and sudden changes in regional climate with potential downstream feedbacks to the climate of the rest of the world. A warming Arctic Ocean may lead to further releases of the potent greenhouse gas methane from hydrates and permafrost. The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in driving, modifying and regulating global climate change via the carbon cycle and through its impact on adjacent Antarctica. The Antarctic Peninsula has shown some of the most rapid rises in atmospheric and oceanic temperature in the world, with an associated retreat of the majority of glaciers. Parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet are deflating rapidly, very likely due to a change in the flux of oceanic heat to the undersides of the floating ice shelves. The final section on modelling feedbacks from the ocean to climate change identifies limitations and priorities for model development and associated observations. Considering the importance of the oceans to climate change and our limited understanding of climate-related ocean processes, our ability to measure the changes that are taking place are conspicuously inadequate. The chapter highlights the need for a comprehensive, adequately funded and globally extensive ocean observing system to be implemented and sustained as a high priority. Unless feedbacks from the oceans to climate change are adequately included in climate change models, it is possible that the mitigation actions needed to stabilise CO2 and limit temperature rise over the next century will be underestimated.

There is growing recognition that high-latitude dust (HLD), originating from local drainage-basin flows, is the dominant source for certain important phenomena such as particle deposition on snow/ice. The analysis of such local plumes (including a better exploitation of remote sensing data) has been targeted as a key aerosol issue by the HLD community. The sub-Arctic Lhù'ààn Mân' (Kluane Lake) region in the Canadian Yukon is subject to regular drainage-basin, wind-induced dust plumes. This dust emission site is one of many current and potential proglacial dust sources in the Canadian north. In situ ground-based measurements are, due to constraints in accessing these types of regions, rare. Ground- and satellite-based remote sensing accordingly play an important role in helping to characterize local dust sources in the Arctic and sub-Arctic. We compared ground-based passive and active remote sensing springtime (May 2019) retrievals with microphysical surface-based measurements in the Lhù'ààn Mân' region in order to better understand the potential for ground- and satellite-based remote sensing of HLD plumes. This included correlation analyses between ground-based coarse mode (CM) aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals from AERONET AOD spectra, CM AODs derived from co-located Doppler lidar profiles, and OPS (optical particle sizer) surface measurements of CM particle-volume concentration (vc(0)). An automated dust classification scheme was developed to objectively identify local dust events. The classification process helped distinguish lidar-derived CM AODs which covaried with vdust(0) (during recognized dust events) and those that varied at the same columnar scale as AERONET-derived CM AOD (and thus could be remotely sensed). False positive cloud events for dust-induced, high-frequency variations in lidar-derived CM AODs in cloudless atmospheres indicated that the AERONET cloud-screening process was rejecting CM dust AODs. The persistence of a positive lidar ratio bias in comparing the CIMEL/lidar-derived value with a prescribed value obtained from OPS-derived particle sizes coupled with dust-speciation-derived refractive indices led to the suggestion that the prescribed value could be increased to optically derived values of 20 sr by the presence of optically significant dust particles at an effective radius of 11–12 µ m. Bimodal CM PSDs (see Appendix B for a glossary) from full-fledged AERONET inversions (the combination of AOD spectra and almucantar radiances) also showed CM peaks at ∼ 1.3 and 5–6.6 µ m radius: this, we argue, was associated with springtime Asian dust and Lhù'ààn Mân' dust, respectively. Correlations between the CIMEL-derived fine mode (FM) AOD and FM OPS-derived particle-volume concentrations suggest that remote sensing techniques can be employed to monitor FM dust (which is arguably a better indicator of the long-distance transport of HLD). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]