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The ocean biogeochemistry components of two new versions of the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM) are presented and compared to observations and other models. CanESM5 employs the same ocean biology model as CanESM2, whereas CanESM5-CanOE (Canadian Ocean Ecosystem model) is a new, more complex model developed for CMIP6, with multiple food chains, flexible phytoplankton elemental ratios, and a prognostic iron cycle. This new model is described in detail and the outputs (distributions of major tracers such as oxygen, dissolved inorganic carbon, and alkalinity, the iron and nitrogen cycles, plankton biomass, and historical trends in CO2 uptake and export production) compared to CanESM5 and CanESM2, as well as to observations and other CMIP6 models. Both CanESM5 models show gains in skill relative to CanESM2, which are attributed primarily to improvements in ocean circulation. CanESM5-CanOE shows improved skill relative to CanESM5 for most major tracers at most depths. CanESM5-CanOE includes a prognostic iron cycle, and maintains high-nutrient/low-chlorophyll conditions in the expected regions (in CanESM2 and CanESM5, iron limitation is specified as a temporally static “mask”). Surface nitrate concentrations are biased low in the subarctic Pacific and equatorial Pacific, and high in the Southern Ocean, in both CanESM5 and CanESM5-CanOE. Export production in CanESM5-CanOE is among the lowest for CMIP6 models; in CanESM5, it is among the highest, but shows the most rapid decline after about 1980. CanESM5-CanOE shows some ability to simulate aspects of plankton community structure that a single-species model can not (e.g. seasonal dominance of large cells) but is biased towards low concentrations of zooplankton and detritus relative to phytoplankton. Cumulative ocean uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide through 2014 is lower in both CanESM5-CanOE (122 PgC) and CanESM5 (132 PgC) than in observation-based estimates (145 PgC) or the model ensemble mean (144 PgC).

The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) is a global model developed to simulate historical climate change and variability, to make centennial scale projections of future climate, and to produce initialized seasonal and decadal predictions. This paper describes the model components and their coupling, as well as various aspects of model development, including tuning, optimization and a reproducibility strategy. We also document the stability of the model using a long control simulation, quantify the model's ability to reproduce large scale features of the historical climate, and evaluate the response of the model to external forcing. CanESM5 is comprised of three dimensional atmosphere (T63 spectral resolution/2.8°) and ocean (nominally 1°) general circulation models, a sea ice model, a land surface scheme, and explicit land and ocean carbon cycle models. The model features relatively coarse resolution and high throughput, which facilitates the production of large ensembles. CanESM5 has a notably higher equilibrium climate sensitivity (5.7 K) than its predecessor CanESM2 (3.8 K), which we briefly discuss, along with simulated changes over the historical period. CanESM5 simulations are contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), and will be employed for climate science and service applications in Canada.

[1] Earth system models generally partition grid cells into an ice-covered and an open-water area and view the ice-covered area as a barrier to gas fluxes. However, observations suggest that exchange in cracks and small leads can be much higher in localized areas than expected under similar conditions in open water. While these models project a significant retreat in sea ice cover, affecting air-sea CO 2 exchange and consequently ocean acidification, the simple grid cell partitioning might underestimate the actual CO 2 exchange. A sensitivity study with the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) shows that enhanced CO 2 exchange in sea ice areas in the Arctic Ocean increases the uptake in fall and winter, allowing more continuous equilibration and hence reduced uptake in summer. The reduction in summer also hints at a limited CO 2-uptake capacity of Arctic surface waters. Retreating sea ice in the future leads to a similar shift in the seasonal cycle. The annual mean carbon uptake of the Arctic Ocean north of 68°N changes only slightly with the enhanced flux parameterization (

The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) aims to investigate the spread in simulations of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO2 forcing by atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). It is particularly motivated by the uncertainties in projections of ocean heat uptake, global-mean sea-level rise due to thermal expansion and the geographical patterns of sea-level change due to ocean density and circulation change. FAFMIP has three tier-1 experiments, in which prescribed surface flux perturbations of momentum, heat and freshwater respectively are applied to the ocean in separate AOGCM simulations. All other conditions are as in the pre-industrial control. The prescribed fields are typical of pattern and magnitude of changes in these fluxes projected by AOGCMs for doubled CO2 concentration. Five groups have tested the experimental design with existing AOGCMs. Their results show diversity in the pattern and magnitude of changes, with some common qualitative features. Heat and water flux perturbation cause the dipole in sea-level change in the North Atlantic, while momentum and heat flux perturbation cause the gradient across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) declines in response to the heat flux perturbation, and there is a strong positive feedback on this effect due to the consequent cooling of sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic, which enhances the local heat input to the ocean. The momentum and water flux perturbations do not substantially affect the AMOC. Heat is taken up largely as a passive tracer in the Southern Ocean, which is the region of greatest heat input, but elsewhere heat is actively redistributed towards lower latitude. Future analysis of these and other phenomena with the wider range of CMIP6 FAFMIP AOGCMs will benefit from new diagnostics of temperature and salinity tendencies, which will enable investigation of the model spread in behaviour in terms of physical processes as formulated in the models.

Several recent studies have shown that ocean western boundaries are the primary regions of eddy energy dissipation. Globally, the eddy energy sinks have been estimated to integrate to about 0.2 TW. This is a sizable fraction of the tidal energy dissipation in the deep oceanic interior, estimated at about 1.0 TW and contributing to diapycnal mixing. The authors conduct sensitivity experiments with an ocean general circulation model assuming that the eddy energy is scattered into high-wavenumber vertical modes, resulting in energy dissipation and locally enhanced diapycnal mixing. When only the tidal energy dissipation maintains diapycnal mixing, the overturning circulation, and stratification in the deep ocean are too weak. With the addition of the eddy dissipation, the deep-ocean thermal structure becomes closer to that observed and the overturning circulation and stratification in the abyss become stronger. Furthermore, the mixing associated with the eddy dissipation can, on its own, drive a relatively strong overturning. The stratification and overturning in the deep ocean are sensitive to the vertical structure of diapycnal mixing. When most of this energy dissipates within 300 m above the bottom, the abyssal overturning and stratification are too weak. Allowing for the dissipation to penetrate higher in the water column, such as suggested by recent observations, results in stronger stratification and meridional circulation. Zonal circulation is also affected. In particular, the Drake Passage transport becomes closer to its observational estimates with the increase in the vertical scale for turbulence above topography. Consistent with some theoretical models, the Drake Passage transport increases with the increase in the mean upper-ocean diffusivity.

Subduction, water mass transformation, and transport rates in the Indo-Pacific Ocean are diagnosed in a recent version of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis coupled model. It is found that the subduction across the base of the winter mixed layer is dominated by the lateral transfer, particularly within the relatively dense water classes corresponding to the densest mode and intermediate waters. However, within lighter densities, including those characterizing the lighter varieties of mode waters, the vertical transfer has a strong positive input to the net subduction. The upper-ocean volume transports across 30°N and 32°S are largest within the density classes that correspond to mode waters. In the North Pacific, the buoyancy flux converts the near-surface waters mostly to denser water classes, whereas in the Southern Ocean the surface waters are transformed both to lighter and denser water classes, depending on the density. In response to a doubling of CO2, the subduction, transformation, and transport of mode waters in both hemispheres shift to lighter densities but do not change significantly, whereas the subduction of intermediate waters decreases. The area of large winter mixed layer depths decreases, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. In the low latitudes, the thermocline water flux that enters the tropical Pacific via the western boundary flows generally increases. However, its anomaly has a complex structure, so that integrated estimates can be sensitive to the isopycnal ranges. The upper part of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) strengthens in the warmer climate, whereas its lower part weakens. The anomaly in the EUC closely follows the anomaly in stratification along the equator. The Indonesian Throughflow transport decreases with part of it being redirected eastward. This part joins with the intensified equatorward thermocline flows at the western boundaries and contributes to the EUC anomaly.

The simulation of atmospheric–land–ocean CO2 exchange for the 1850–2000 period offers the possibility of testing and calibrating the carbon budget in earth system models by comparing the simulated changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and in land and ocean uptake with observation-based information. In particular, some of the uncertainties associated with the treatment of land use change (LUC) and the role of down regulation in affecting the strength of CO2 fertilization for terrestrial photosynthesis are assessed using the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Earth System Model (CanESM1). LUC emissions may be specified as an external source of CO2 or calculated interactively based on estimated changes in crop area. The evidence for photosynthetic down regulation is reviewed and an empirically based representation is implemented and tested in the model. Four fully coupled simulations are performed: with and without terrestrial photosynthesis down regulation and with interactively determined or specified LUC emissions. Simulations without terrestrial photosynthesis down regulation yield 15–20 ppm lower atmospheric CO2 by the end of the twentieth century, compared to observations, regardless of the LUC approach used because of higher carbon uptake by land. Implementation of down regulation brings simulated values of atmospheric CO2 and land and ocean carbon uptake closer to observation-based values. The use of specified LUC emissions yields a large source in the tropics during the 1981–2000 period, which is inconsistent with studies suggesting the tropics to be near-neutral or small carbon sinks. The annual cycle of simulated global averaged CO2, dominated by the Northern Hemisphere terrestrial photosynthesis and respiration cycles, is reasonably well reproduced, as is the latitudinal distribution of CO2 and the dependence of interhemispheric CO2 gradient on fossil fuel emissions. The empirical approach used here offers a reasonable method of implementing down regulation in coupled carbon–climate models in the absence of a more explicit biogeochemical representation.

A global, three-dimensional climate model, developed by coupling the CCCma second-generation atmospheric general circulation model (GCM2) to a version of the GFDL modular ocean model (MOM1), forms the basis for extended simulations of past, current and projected future climate. The spin-up and coupling procedures are described, as is the resulting climate based on a 200 year model simulation with constant atmospheric composition and external forcing. The simulated climate is systematically compared to available observations in terms of mean climate quantities and their spatial patterns, temporal variability, and regional behavior. Such comparison demonstrates a generally successful reproduction of the broad features of mean climate quantities, albeit with local discrepancies. Variability is generally well-simulated over land, but somewhat underestimated in the tropical ocean and the extratropical storm-track regions. The modelled climate state shows only small trends, indicating a reasonable level of balance at the surface, which is achieved in part by the use of heat and freshwater flux adjustments. The control simulation provides a basis against which to compare simulated climate change due to historical and projected greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing as described in companion publications.

At this early stage of modeling marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles in the Pacific Arctic Region (PAR), numerous challenges lie ahead. Observational data used for model development and validation remain sparse, especially across seasons and under a variety of environmental conditions. Field data are becoming more available, but at the same time PAR is rapidly changing. Biogeochemical models can provide the means to capture some of these changes. This study introduces and synthesizes ecosystem modeling in PAR by discussing differences in complexity and application of one-dimensional, regional, and global earth system models. Topics include the general structure of ecosystem models and specifics of the combined benthic, pelagic, and ice PAR ecosystems, the importance of model validation, model responses to climate influences (e.g. diminishing sea ice, ocean acidification), and the impacts of circulation and stratification changes on PAR ecosystems and biogeochemical cycling. Examples of modeling studies that help place the region within the context of the Pan-Arctic System are also discussed. We synthesize past and ongoing PAR biogeochemical modeling efforts and briefly touch on decision makers’ use of ecosystem models and on necessary future developments.

[1] The response of the second-generation Canadian earth system model (CanESM2) to historical (1850–2005) and future (2006–2100) natural and anthropogenic forcing is assessed using the newly-developed representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols. Allowable emissions required to achieve the future atmospheric CO2 concentration pathways, are reported for the RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. For the historical 1850–2005 period, cumulative land plus ocean carbon uptake and, consequently, cumulative diagnosed emissions compare well with observation-based estimates. The simulated historical carbon uptake is somewhat weaker for the ocean and stronger for the land relative to their observation-based estimates. The simulated historical warming of 0.9°C compares well with the observation-based estimate of 0.76 ± 0.19°C. The RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively yield warmings of 1.4, 2.3, and 4.9°C and cumulative diagnosed fossil fuel emissions of 182, 643 and 1617 Pg C over the 2006–2100 period. The simulated warming of 2.3°C over the 1850–2100 period in the RCP 2.6 scenario, with the lowest concentration of GHGs, is slightly larger than the 2°C warming target set to avoid dangerous climate change by the 2009 UN Copenhagen Accord. The results of this study suggest that limiting warming to roughly 2°C by the end of this century is unlikely since it requires an immediate ramp down of emissions followed by ongoing carbon sequestration in the second half of this century.

[1] The preindustrial carbon cycle is described for the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Earth system model (CanESM1). The interhemispheric gradient of surface atmospheric CO2 concentration (xCO2) is reversed from the present day, with higher concentrations in the Southern Hemisphere, and southward interhemispheric transport by the ocean, estimated at 0.38 Pg C yr−1. The seasonal cycles of xCO2 and surface CO2 exchange are dominated by Northern Hemisphere terrestrial processes; the ocean contribution to CO2 flux is in phase with the larger terrestrial flux in the tropics and out of phase in the extratropics. Ocean processes dominate the relatively small Southern Hemisphere variability. Interannual variability of land carbon exchange is much larger than ocean exchange; both are comparable to results from previously published models with possibly larger variability in the terrestrial flux. Terrestrial net primary production (NPP) is determined largely by water availability at low latitudes, with temperature becoming more important at high latitudes. Temperature and moisture affect both NPP and heterotrophic respiration such that respiration effects tend to dampen the effect of fluctuations in NPP on CO2 exchange. Ocean CO2 flux variability is controlled by a variety of physical and biological processes with greater control by physical processes in the tropics and a larger biological contribution in the extratropics. Ocean CO2 flux is more strongly correlated with tropical sea surface temperature (SST) than terrestrial, but the variance associated with tropical SST is larger on land, in absolute terms, because of the much greater total variance of the land carbon flux. A novel hypothesis is advanced to explain how biological drawdown can cause recently upwelled water to be a net sink rather than source for atmospheric CO2. This process occurs over large areas of extratropical ocean and forms a natural sink for atmospheric CO2 that is potentially sensitive to both ocean acidification and anthropogenic perturbations of the aeolian iron flux.

Under seasonal forcing, numerical ocean models can exhibit a large seasonal cycle in the subarctic North Pacific. This has been seen in three‐dimensional primitive‐equation models that lack sufficient vertical resolution, thereby treating broadly sloping bottom topography as essentially flat. Theoretical consideration, as well as studies based on simplified models, identify a possible sensitivity to inclusion of more realistic topography. We examine such a sensitivity by comparing results from a 5‐level primitive‐equation model and a 15‐level model. We find that improved resolution in the 15‐level model reduces the large seasonal cycle in modelled ocean variables.

The hypothesis that numerical ocean circulation models could benefit fishery management was tested by first simulating the interannual variability of the northeast Pacific Ocean from 1955 to 1979 with the Bryan–Cox–Semtner ocean model (from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ) and then relating the model output to the interannual variability found in the Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was first used to condense the model output fields as well as the atmospheric forcing data. Next, the amplitude of the EOF's were regressed with the annual values of the sockeye variables (return migration route and timing, marine survival, and fork length) by stepwise multiple regression, with various time lags between the physical and the sockeye variables. The EOF modes associated with interannual variability (usually mode 2) were more often correlated with the sockeye variables than the other modes thought to contain mainly the seasonal cycle (mode 1) or else noise. The correlations between the physical variables and the sockeye variables were highest in the first and final few months of the sockeye marine life.

Long-term mean temperature and salinity profiles, computed from an edited set of historical hydrographic data, have been used to calculate mean profiles of density and Brunt–Vaisala seasonal variations in internal Rossby radii are everywhere surprisingly small.