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The Metis coronagraph of the Solar Orbiter (SolO) mission records full-Sun images of the solar corona in Lyman-α ultraviolet (UV) radiation and in visible light polarized brightness (pB). This work investigates the utility of a synoptic observational program of Metis in terms of using its pB-images for tomographic reconstruction of the three-dimensional (3D) distribution of the electron density of the global solar corona. During its lifetime, SolO’s distance to the Sun will range D ≈ 0.3−1.0 au, while its solar latitude will span θ ≈ ±33 •. The limitations that such orbit complexity poses on tomographic reconstructions is explored in this work. Using SolO’s predictive orbital information and 3D MHD simulations of the solar corona, time series of synthetic Metis pB-images were computed and used as data to attempt tomographic reconstruction of the model. These numerical experiments were implemented for two Carrington rotations, corresponding to a solar minimum and a solar maximum, representative of extreme conditions of coronal complexity. For each rotation images were synthesized from three orbital segments, corresponding to extreme geometrical conditions of observation by Metis. For the early phase of the mission (year 2023), simulations were carried from the largest aphelion (D ≈ 0.95 au) and the smallest perihelion (D ≈ 0.29 au), both cases corresponding to low latitude (|θ| < 10 •) positions. For the late phase of the mission (year 2029), a simulation was carried out from the maximum solar latitude position (θ ≈ +33 •), at an intermediate distance (D ≈ 0.5 au). The range of heights that can be reconstructed and the required data-gathering time, both dependent on D, are reported for the six experiments. The extension of the coronal region that can be reconstructed and the accuracy of the reconstruction, both decreasing with increasing solar latitude |θ| as well as with increasing coronal complexity, are discussed in detail in each case. As a general conclusion, a Metis synoptic observational program with a cadence of at least 4 images/day provides enough data to attempt tomographic reconstructions of the coronal electron density during the whole lifetime of the mission, a requirement well within the 2 − 3 hr cadence of the current synoptic program. This program will allow implementation of tomography experimenting with different values for the cadence of the time-series of images used to feed reconstructions. Its cadence will also provide continuous opportunity to select images avoiding highly dynamic events, which compromise the accuracy of tomographic reconstructions.

We explore model performance for the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) with near-9 real-time (NRT) synoptic maps of the photospheric vector magnetic field. These maps, produced by 10 assimilating data from the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard the Solar Dynamics Obser-11 vatory (SDO), use a different method developed at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) to provide 12 a near contemporaneous source of data to drive numerical models. Here, we apply these NSO-HMI-13 NRT maps to simulate three Carrington rotations (CRs): 2107-2108 (centered on 2011/03/07 20:12 14 CME event), 2123 (integer CR) and 2218-2219 (centered on 2019/07/2 solar eclipse), which together 15 cover a wide range of activity level for solar cycle 24. We show simulation results, which reproduce 16 both extreme ultraviolet emission (EUV) from the low corona while simultaneously matching in situ 17 observations at 1 au as well as quantify the total unsigned open magnetic flux from these maps. 18

Many current research efforts undertake the solar flare classification task using the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patch (SHARP) parameters as the predictors. The SHARP parameters are scalar qua...

High-energy stellar irradiation can photoevaporate planetary atmospheres, which can be observed in spectroscopic transits of hydrogen lines. For the exoplanet HD189733b, multiple observations in the Ly-$\alpha$ line have shown that atmospheric evaporation is variable, going from undetected to enhanced evaporation in a $1.5$-year interval. Coincidentally or not, when HD189733b was observed to be evaporating, a stellar flare had just occurred 8h prior to the observation. This led to the question of whether this temporal variation in evaporation occurred due to the flare, an unseen associated coronal mass ejection (CME), or even the effect of both simultaneously. In this work, we investigate the impact of flares (radiation), winds, and CMEs (particles) on the atmosphere of HD189733b using 3D radiation hydrodynamic simulations of atmospheric evaporation that self-consistently include stellar photon heating. We study four cases: first- the quiescent phase of the star including stellar wind, second- a flare, third- a CME, and fourth- a flare that is followed by a CME. Compared to the quiescent case, we find that the flare alone increases the evaporation rate by only 25%, while the CME leads to a factor of 4 increase in escape rate. We calculate Ly-$\alpha$ synthetic transits and find that the flare alone cannot explain the observed high blueshifted velocities seen in the Ly-$\alpha$ observation. The CME, however, leads to an increase in the velocity of the escaping atmosphere, enhancing the transit depth at high blueshifted velocities. While the effects of CMEs show a promising potential to explain the blueshifted line feature, our models are not able to fully explain the blueshifted transit depths, indicating that they might require additional physical mechanisms., Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS, 14 pages, 9 figures

The Earth’s Ionosphere limits radio measurements on its surface, blocking out any radiation below 10 MHz. Valuable insight into many astrophysical processes could be gained by having a radio interferometer in space to image the low frequency window, which has never been achieved. One application for such a system is observing type II bursts that track solar energetic particle acceleration occurring at Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-driven shocks. This is one of the primary science targets for SunRISE, a 6 CubeSat interferometer to circle the Earth in a GEO graveyard orbit. SunRISE is a NASA Heliophysics Mission of Opportunity that began Phase B (Formulation) in June 2020, and plans to launch for a 12-month mission in mid-2023. In this work we present an update to the data processing and science analysis pipeline for SunRISE and evaluate its performance in localizing type II bursts around a simulated CME.To create realistic virtual type II input data, we employ a 2-temperature MHD simulation of the May 13th 2005 CME event, and superimpose realistic radio emission models on the CME-driven shock front, and propagate the signal through the simulated array. Data cuts based on different plasma parameter thresholds (e.g. de Hoffman-Teller velocity and angle between shock normal and the upstream magnetic field) are tested to get the best match to the true recorded emission. This model type II emission is then fed to the SunRISE data processing pipeline to ensure that the array can localize the emission. We include realistic thermal noise dominated by the galactic background at these low frequencies, as well as new sources of phase noise from positional uncertainty of each spacecraft. We test simulated trajectories of SunRISE and image what the array recovers, comparing it to the virtual input, finding that SunRISE can resolve the source of type II emission to within its prescribed goal of 1/3 the CME width. This shows that SunRISE will significantly advance the scientific community’s understanding of type II burst generation, and consequently, acceleration of solar energetic particles at CMEs. This unique combination of SunRISE observations and MHD recreations of space weather events will allow an unprecedented look into the plasma parameters important for these processes.

The young magnetically active solar-like stars are efficient generators of ionizing radiation in the form of X-ray and Extreme UV (EUV) flux, stellar wind and eruptive events. These outputs are the critical factors affecting atmospheric escape and chemistry of (exo)planets around active stars. While X-ray fluxes and surface magnetic fields can be derived from observations, the EUV emission and wind mass fluxes, Coronal Mass Ejections and associated Stellar Energetic Particle events cannot be directly observed. Here, we present the results of a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model with inputs constrained by spectropolarimetric data, HST/STIS Far UV, X-ray data data and stellar magnetic maps reconstructed at two epochs separated by 11 months. The simulations show that over the course of the year, the global stellar corona had undergone a drastic transition from a simple dipole-like to a tilted dipole with multipole field components, and thus, provided favorable conditions for Corotating Interaction Events (CIRs) that drive strong shocks. The dynamic pressure exerted by CIRs are 1300 times larger than those observed from the Sun and can contribute to the atmospheric erosion of early Venus, Earth, Mars and young Earth-like exoplanets. Our data-constrained MHD model provides the framework to model coronal environments of G-M planet hosting dwarfs. The model outputs can serve as a realistic input for exoplanetary atmospheric models to evaluate the impact of stellar coronal emission, stellar winds and CIRs on their atmospheric escape and chemistry that can be tested in the upcoming JWST and ground-based observations., Comment: 28 pages, 8 figures

MHD-based global space weather models have mostly been developed and maintained at academic institutions. While the "free spirit" approach of academia enables the rapid emergence and testing of new ideas and methods, the lack of long-term stability and support makes this arrangement very challenging. This paper describes a successful example of a university-based group, the Center of Space Environment Modeling (CSEM) at the University of Michigan, that developed and maintained the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) and its core element, the BATS-R-US extended MHD code. It took a quarter of a century to develop this capability and reach its present level of maturity that makes it suitable for research use by the space physics community through the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) as well as operational use by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC)., Comment: 105 pages, 36 figures, in press

We investigate the wind of lambda And, a solar-mass star that has evolved off the main sequence becoming a sub-giant. We present spectropolarimetric observations and use them to reconstruct the surface magnetic field of lambda And. Although much older than our Sun, this star exhibits a stronger (reaching up to 83 G) large-scale magnetic field, which is dominated by the poloidal component. To investigate the wind of lambda And, we use the derived magnetic map to simulate two stellar wind scenarios, namely a polytropic wind (thermally-driven) and an Alfven-wave driven wind with turbulent dissipation. From our 3D magnetohydrodynamics simulations, we calculate the wind thermal emission and compare it to previously published radio observations and more recent VLA observations, which we present here. These observations show a basal sub-mJy quiescent flux level at ~5 GHz and, at epochs, a much larger flux density (>37 mJy), likely due to radio flares. By comparing our model results with the radio observations of lambda And, we can constrain its mass-loss rate Mdot. There are two possible conclusions. 1) Assuming the quiescent radio emission originates from the stellar wind, we conclude that lambda And has Mdot ~ 3e-9 Msun/yr, which agrees with the evolving mass-loss rate trend for evolved solar-mass stars. 2) Alternatively, if the quiescent emission does not originate from the wind, our models can only place an upper limit on mass-loss rates, indicating that Mdot, Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS

We develop a mixed Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) regression model to predict the maximum solar flare intensity within a 24-hour time window 0$\sim$24, 6$\sim$30, 12$\sim$36 and 24$\sim$48 hours ahead of time using 6, 12, 24 and 48 hours of data (predictors) for each Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) Active Region Patch (HARP). The model makes use of (1) the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patch (SHARP) parameters as predictors and (2) the exact flare intensities instead of class labels recorded in the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) data set, which serves as the source of the response variables. Compared to solar flare classification, the model offers us more detailed information about the exact maximum flux level, i.e. intensity, for each occurrence of a flare. We also consider classification models built on top of the regression model and obtain better results in solar flare classifications. Our results suggest that the most efficient time period for predicting the solar activity is within 24 hours before the prediction time using the SHARP parameters and the LSTM model., Comment: 28 pages, 15 figures

We carry out a study of the global three-dimensional (3D) structure of the electron density and temperature of the quiescent inner solar corona ( $r

We perform a validation study of the latest version of the Alfv\'{e}n Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) within the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF). To do so, we compare the simulation results of the model with a comprehensive suite of observations for Carrington rotations representative of the solar minimum conditions extending from the solar corona to the heliosphere up to the Earth. In the low corona ($r < 1.25$ \Rs), we compare with EUV images from both STEREO-A/EUVI and SDO/AIA and to three-dimensional (3-D) tomographic reconstructions of the electron temperature and density based on these same data. We also compare the model to tomographic reconstructions of the electron density from SOHO/LASCO observations ($2.55 < r < 6.0$\Rs). In the heliosphere, we compare model predictions of solar wind speed with velocity reconstructions from InterPlanetary Scintillation (IPS) observations. For comparison with observations near the Earth, we use OMNI data. Our results show that the improved AWSoM model performs well in quantitative agreement with the observations between the inner corona and 1 AU. The model now reproduces the fast solar wind speed in the polar regions. Near the Earth, our model shows good agreement with observations of solar wind velocity, proton temperature and density. AWSoM offers an extensive application to study the solar corona and larger heliosphere in concert with current and future solar missions as well as being well suited for space weather predictions.

The Wide-field Imager for the Parker Solar Probe (PSP/WISPR) comprises two telescopes that record white-light total brightness $[B]$ images of the solar corona. Their fields of view cover a widely changing range of heliocentric heights over the 24 highly eccentric orbits planned for the mission. In this work, the capability of PSP/WISPR data to carry out tomographic reconstructions of the three-dimensional (3D) distribution of the coronal electron density is investigated. Based on the precise orbital information of the mission, $B$-images for Orbits 1, 12, and 24 are synthesized from a 3D magnetohydrodynamic model of the corona. For each orbit, the time series of synthetic images is used to carry out a tomographic reconstruction of the coronal electron density and results are compared with the model. As the PSP perihelion decreases, the range of heights that can be tomographically reconstructed progressively shifts to lower values, and the period required to gather the data decreases. For Orbit 1 tomographic reconstruction is not possible. For Orbit 12, tomographic reconstruction is possible in the heliocentric height range ${\approx}\, 5\,\mbox{--}\,15~\mathrm{{R}_{\odot}}$, over a region spanning up to ${\approx}\,160^{\circ}$ in Carrington longitude, with data gathered over a ${\approx}\, 3.4$ day-long period. For Orbit 24, tomographic reconstruction is possible in the heliocentric height range ${\approx}\,3\,\mbox{--}\,10~\mathrm {R}_{\odot}$, over a region spanning up to ${\approx} \,170^{\circ}$ in Carrington longitude, with data gathered over a ${\approx}\, 2.8$ day-long period.

We present several methods towards construction of precursors, which show great promise towards early predictions, of solar flare events in this paper. A data pre-processing pipeline is built to extract useful data from multiple sources, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) and Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), to prepare inputs for machine learning algorithms. Two classification models are presented: classification of flares from quiet times for active regions and classification of strong versus weak flare events. We adopt deep learning algorithms to capture both the spatial and temporal information from HMI magnetogram data. Effective feature extraction and feature selection with raw magnetogram data using deep learning and statistical algorithms enable us to train classification models to achieve almost as good performance as using active region parameters provided in HMI/Space-Weather HMI-Active Region Patch (SHARP) data files. Case studies show a significant increase in the prediction score around 20 hours before strong solar flare events.

The Earths Ionosphere limits radio measurements on its surface, blocking out any radiation below 10 MHz. Valuable insight into many astrophysical processes could be gained by having a radio interferometer in space to image the low frequency window, which has never been achieved. One application for such a system is observing type II bursts that track solar energetic particle acceleration occurring at Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-driven shocks. In this work we create a data processing pipeline for the pathfinder mission SunRISE, a 6 CubeSat interferometer to circle the Earth in a GEO graveyard orbit, and evaluate its performance in localizing type II bursts with a simulated CME. Traditional radio astronomy software is hard coded to assume an Earth based array. To circumvent this, we manually calculate the antenna separations and insert them along with the simulated visibilities into a CASA MS file for analysis. We model the response of different array configurations over the 25 hour orbit, combining an ephemeris for the Sun with simulated recovered positions of spacecraft using GPS localization to get the array geometry into the correct frame for processing. We include realistic thermal noise dominated by the galactic background at these low frequencies, as well as new sources of phase noise from positional uncertainty of each spacecraft. To create realistic virtual type II input data, we employ a 2-temperature MHD simulation of the May 13th 2005 CME event, and superimpose realistic radio emission models on the CME-driven shock front, and propagate the signal through the simulated array. Data cuts based on different plasma parameter thresholds (e.g. de Hoffman-Teller velocity and angle between shock normal and the upstream magnetic field) are tested to get the best match to the true recorded emission. We test simulated trajectories of SunRISE and image what the array recovers, comparing it to the virtual input, finding that SunRISE can resolve the source of type II emission to within its prescribed goal of 1/3 the CME width more than 99% of the time with 5 or 6 spacecraft, and 97.5% of the time with 4 spacecraft.

We examine Alfv\'en Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) predictions of the first Parker Solar Probe (PSP) encounter. We focus on the 12-day closest approach centered on the 1st perihelion. AWSoM (van der Holst et al., 2014) allows us to interpret the PSP data in the context of coronal heating via Alfv\'en wave turbulence. The coronal heating and acceleration is addressed via outward-propagating low-frequency Alfv\'en waves that are partially reflected by Alfv\'en speed gradients. The nonlinear interaction of these counter-propagating waves results in a turbulent energy cascade. To apportion the wave dissipation to the electron and anisotropic proton temperatures, we employ the results of the theories of linear wave damping and nonlinear stochastic heating as described by Chandran et al. (2011). We find that during the first encounter, PSP was in close proximity to the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) and in the slow wind. PSP crossed the HCS two times, namely at 2018/11/03 UT 01:02 and 2018/11/08 UT 19:09 with perihelion occuring on the south of side of the HCS. We predict the plasma state along the PSP trajectory, which shows a dominant proton parallel temperature causing the plasma to be firehose unstable., Comment: 16 pages, 5 figures; accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal Letters

We present an updated global model of the solar corona, including the transition region. We simulate the realistic three-dimensional (3D) magnetic field using the data from the photospheric magnetic field measurements and assume the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) Alfvén wave turbulence and its nonlinear dissipation to be the only source for heating the coronal plasma and driving the solar wind. In closed-field regions, the dissipation efficiency in a balanced turbulence is enhanced. In the coronal holes, we account for a reflection of the outward-propagating waves, which is accompanied by the generation of weaker counterpropagating waves. The nonlinear cascade rate degrades in strongly imbalanced turbulence, thus resulting in colder coronal holes. The distinctive feature of the presented model is the description of the low corona as almost-steady-state low-beta plasma motion and heat flux transfer along the magnetic field lines. We trace the magnetic field lines through each grid point of the lower boundary of the global corona model, chosen at some heliocentric distance, R = R b ∼ 1.1R ⊙, well above the transition region. One can readily solve the plasma parameters along the magnetic field line from 1D equations for the plasma motion and heat transport together with the Alfvén wave propagation, which adequately describe the physics within the heliocentric distance range R ⊙ R R b , in the low solar corona. By interfacing this threaded-field-line model with the full MHD global corona model at r = R b , we find the global solution and achieve a faster-than-real-time performance of the model on ∼200 cores.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on stars other than the Sun have proven very difficult to detect. One promising pathway lies in the detection of type II radio bursts. Their appearance and distinctive properties are associated with the development of an outward propagating CME-driven shock. However, dedicated radio searches have not been able to identify these transient features in other stars. Large Alfv\'en speeds and the magnetic suppression of CMEs in active stars have been proposed to render stellar eruptions "radio-quiet". Employing 3D magnetohydrodynamic simulations, we study here the distribution of the coronal Alfv\'en speed, focusing on two cases representative of a young Sun-like star and a mid-activity M-dwarf (Proxima Centauri). These results are compared with a standard solar simulation and used to characterize the shock-prone regions in the stellar corona and wind. Furthermore, using a flux-rope eruption model, we drive realistic CME events within our M-dwarf simulation. We consider eruptions with different energies to probe the regimes of weak and partial CME magnetic confinement. While these CMEs are able to generate shocks in the corona, those are pushed much farther out compared to their solar counterparts. This drastically reduces the resulting type II radio burst frequencies down to the ionospheric cutoff, which impedes their detection with ground-based instrumentation., Comment: 13 Pages, 6 Figures, 2 Tables. Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal

A deep learning network, Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) network, is used in this work to predict whether the maximum flare class an active region (AR) will produce in the next 24 hours is class $\Gamma$. We considered $\Gamma$ are $\ge M$, $\ge C$ and any flare class. The essence of using LSTM, which is a recurrent neural network, is its capability to capture temporal information of the data samples. The input features are time sequences of 20 magnetic parameters from SHARPs - Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches. We analyzed active regions from June 2010 to Dec 2018, using the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) X-ray flare catalogs and label the data samples with identified ARs in the GOES X-ray flare catalogs. Our results (i) shows consistent skill scores with recently published results using LSTMs and better than the previous work using single time input (eg. DeFN) (ii) The skill scores from the model show essential differences when different years of data was chosen for training and testing.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were discovered in the early 1970s when space-borne coronagraphs revealed that eruptions of plasma are ejected from the Sun. Today, it is known that the Sun produces eruptive flares, filament eruptions, coronal mass ejections and failed eruptions; all thought to be due to a release of energy stored in the coronal magnetic field during its drastic reconfiguration. This review discusses the observations and physical mechanisms behind this eruptive activity, with a view to making an assessment of the current capability of forecasting these events for space weather risk and impact mitigation. Whilst a wealth of observations exist, and detailed models have been developed, there still exists a need to draw these approaches together. In particular more realistic models are encouraged in order to asses the full range of complexity of the solar atmosphere and the criteria for which an eruption is formed. From the observational side, a more detailed understanding of the role of photospheric flows and reconnection is needed in order to identify the evolutionary path that ultimately means a magnetic structure will erupt., 65 pages, 8 figures, accepted by Space Science Reviews

The history and present state of large-scale magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modeling of the solar corona and the solar wind with steady or quasi-steady coronal physics is reviewed. We put the evolution of ideas leading to the recognition of the existence of an expanding solar atmosphere into historical context. The development and main features of the first generation of global corona and solar wind models are described in detail. This historical perspective is also applied to the present suite of global corona and solar wind models. We discuss the evolution of new ideas and their implementation into numerical simulation codes. We point out the scientific and computational challenges facing these models and discuss the ways various groups tried to overcome these challenges. Next, we discuss the latest, state-of-the art models and point to the expected next steps in modeling the corona and the interplanetary medium., Comment: Accepted for publication, Living Reviews in Solar Physics, 2018

Recent detections of high-energy $\gamma$-rays from behind-the-limb (BTL) solar flares by the \emph{Fermi $\gamma$-ray Space Telescope} pose a puzzle and challenge on the particle acceleration and transport mechanisms. In such events, the $\gamma$-ray emission region is located away from the BTL flare site by up to tens of degrees in heliogrpahic longitude. It is thus hypothesized that particles are accelerated at the shock driven by the coronal mass ejection (CME) and then travel from the shock downstream back to the front side of the Sun to produce the observed $\gamma$-rays. To test this scenario, we performed data-driven, global magnetohydrodynamics simulations of the CME associated with a well-observed BTL flare on 2014 September 1. We found that part of the CME-driven shock develops magnetic connectivity with the $\gamma$-ray emission region, facilitating transport of particles back to the Sun. Moreover, the observed increase in $\gamma$-ray flux is temporally correlated with (1) the increase of the shock compression ratio and (2) the presence of a quasi-perpendicular shock over the area that is magnetically connected to the $\gamma$-ray emitting region, both conditions favoring the diffusive shock acceleration (DSA) of particles. These results support the above hypothesis and can help resolve another puzzle, i.e., long-duration (up to 20 hours) $\gamma$-rays flares. We suggest that, in addition to DSA, stochastic acceleration by plasma turbulence may also play a role, especially in the shock downstream region and during the early stage when the shock Alfv\'{e}n Mach number is small., Comment: 29 pages, 8 figures, accepted by ApJ

The development of quantitative models that describe physical processes from the solar corona to the Earth’s upper atmosphere creates the possibility of numerical space weather forecasting with a lead time of a few days [Merkin et al., 2007; Toth et al., 2007]. Developing such a capability for the thermosphere and ionosphere is the objective of an effort described here sponsored by the NASA/National Science Foundation (NSF) Partnership for Collaborative Space Weather Modeling [Schunk, 2014]. Despite significant scientific progress in Sun-to-Earth modeling over the last few years, there is currently no system in place that relies on the physics-based model development of the past 10 years, to forecast moderate to intense upper atmosphere storms caused by solar wind disturbances. Mannucci [2012] suggests that a physics-based approach to forecasting upper atmospheric space weather has scientific as well as practical benefits.

As observed in Thomson-scattered white light, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are manifest as large-scale expulsions of plasma magnetically driven from the corona in the most energetic eruptions from the Sun. It remains a tantalizing mystery as to how these erupting magnetic fields evolve to form the complex structures we observe in the solar wind at Earth. Here, we strive to provide a fresh perspective on the post-eruption and interplanetary evolution of CMEs, focusing on the physical processes that define the many complex interactions of the ejected plasma with its surroundings as it departs the corona and propagates through the heliosphere. We summarize the ways CMEs and their interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) are rotated, reconfigured, deformed, deflected, decelerated and disguised during their journey through the solar wind. This study then leads to consideration of how structures originating in coronal eruptions can be connected to their far removed interplanetary counterparts. Given that ICMEs are the drivers of most geomagnetic storms (and the sole driver of extreme storms), this work provides a guide to the processes that must be considered in making space weather forecasts from remote observations of the corona.

Radio emission from coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a direct tracer of particle acceleration in the inner heliosphere and potential magnetic connections from the lower solar corona to the heliosphere. Energized electrons excite Lang-muir waves, which convert into radio emission at the local plasma frequency, with the most intense acceleration thought to occur within 20 RS. The capability of ground-based radio arrays to track this radio emission is limited by ionospheric absorption (ν ≳ 15 MHz) to altitudes less than about 3 RS. The state of the art for tracking such emission from space is defined by single antennas (Wind/WAVES, Stereo/SWAVES), in which the tracking is accomplished by assuming a frequency-to-density mapping; there has been some success in triangulating the emission between the spacecraft, but considerable uncertainties remain. The Sun Radio Imaging Space Experiment (SunRISE) mission concept would be a constellation of small spacecraft operating as an interferometer designed to localize and track radio emissions in the inner heliosphere. Each spacecraft would carry a receiving system for observations below 25 MHz, and SunRISE would image CMEs more than a few solar radii from the Sun.

On 21 January 2005, a moderate magnetic storm produced a number of anomalous features, some seen more typically during superstorms. The aim of this study is to establish the differences in the space environment from what we expect (and normally observe) for a storm of this intensity, which make it behave in some ways like a superstorm. The storm was driven by one of the fastest interplanetary coronal mass ejections in solar cycle 23, containing a piece of the dense erupting solar filament material. The momentum of the massive solar filament caused it to push its way through the flux rope as the interplanetary coronal mass ejection decelerated moving toward 1 AU creating the appearance of an eroded flux rope (see companion paper by Manchester et al. (2014)) and, in this case, limiting the intensity of the resulting geomagnetic storm. On impact, the solar filament further disrupted the partial ring current shielding in existence at the time, creating a brief superfountain in the equatorial ionosphere—an unusual occurrence for a moderate storm. Within 1 h after impact, a cold dense plasma sheet (CDPS) formed out of the filament material. As the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) rotated from obliquely to more purely northward, the magnetotail transformed from an open to a closed configuration and the CDPS evolved from warmer to cooler temperatures. Plasma sheet densities reached tens per cubic centimeter along the flanks—high enough to inflate the magnetotail in the simulation under northward IMF conditions despite the cool temperatures. Observational evidence for this stretching was provided by a corresponding expansion and intensification of both the auroral oval and ring current precipitation zones linked to magnetotail stretching by field line curvature scattering. Strong Joule heating in the cusps, a by-product of the CDPS formation process, contributed to an equatorward neutral wind surge that reached low latitudes within 1–2 h and intensified the equatorial ionization anomaly. Understanding the geospace consequences of extremes in density and pressure is important because some of the largest and most damaging space weather events ever observed contained similar intervals of dense solar material.

We examine a three-dimensional (3-D) numerical magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation describing a very fast interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) propagating from the solar corona to 1 AU. In conjunction with its high speed, the ICME evolves in ways that give it a unique appearance at 1 AU that does not resemble a typical ICME. First, as the ICME decelerates far from the Sun in the solar wind, filament material at the back of the flux rope pushes its way forward through the flux rope. Second, diverging nonradial flows in front of the filament transport poloidal flux of the rope to the sides of the ICME. Third, the magnetic flux rope reconnects with the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). As a consequence of these processes, the flux rope partially unravels and appears to evolve to an entirely unbalanced configuration. At the same time, filament material at the base of the flux rope moves forward and comes in direct contact with the shocked plasma in the CME sheath. We find evidence that such remarkable behavior has actually occurred when we examine a very fast CME that erupted from the Sun on 2005 January 20. In situ observations of this event near 1 AU show very dense cold material impacting the Earth following immediately behind the CME sheath. Charge state analysis shows this dense plasma is filament material. Consistent with the simulation, we find the poloidal flux (Bz) to be entirely unbalanced, giving the appearance that the flux rope has eroded. The dense solar filament material and unbalanced positive IMF Bz produced a number of anomalous features in a moderate magnetic storm already underway, which are described in a companion paper by Kozyra et al. (2014).

[1] Magnetic flux erosion by magnetic reconnection occurs at the front of at least some magnetic clouds (MCs). We first investigate how erosion influences the geo-effectiveness of MCs in a general sense and using a south-north magnetic polarity MC observed on 18–20 October 1995. Although the magnetic shear at its front may not be known during propagation, measurements at 1 AU show signatures of local reconnection. Using a standard MC model, an empirical model of the geomagnetic response (Dst), and an observational estimate of the magnetic flux erosion, we find that the strength of the observed ensuing storm was ~30% lower than if no erosion had occurred. We then discuss the interplay between adiabatic compression and magnetic erosion at the front of MCs. We conclude that the most geo-effective configuration for a south-north polarity MC is to be preceded by a solar wind with southward IMF. This stems not only from the formation of a geo-effective sheath ahead of it but also from the adiabatic compression and reduced (or lack thereof) magnetic erosion which constructively conspire for the structure to be more geo-effective. Finally, assuming simple semiempirical and theoretical Alfven speed profiles expected from expansion to 1 AU, we provide first-order estimates of the erosion process radial evolution. We find that the expected reconnection rates during propagation allow for significant erosion, on the order of those reported. Calculations also suggest that most of the erosion should occur in the inner heliosphere, and up to ~50% may yet occur beyond Mercury's orbit.