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Classifying subsets based on spatial and temporal features is crucial to the analysis of spatiotemporal data given the inherent spatial and temporal variability. Since no single clustering algorithm ensures optimal results, researchers have increasingly explored the effectiveness of ensemble approaches. Ensemble clustering has attracted much attention due to increased diversity, better generalization, and overall improved clustering performance. While ensemble clustering may yield promising results on simple datasets, it has not been fully explored on complex multivariate spatiotemporal data. For our contribution to this field, we propose a novel hybrid ensemble deep graph temporal clustering (HEDGTC) method for multivariate spatiotemporal data. HEDGTC integrates homogeneous and heterogeneous ensemble methods and adopts a dual consensus approach to address noise and misclassification from traditional clustering. It further applies a graph attention autoencoder network to improve clustering performance and stability. When evaluated on three real-world multivariate spatiotemporal data, HEDGTC outperforms state-of-the-art ensemble clustering models by showing improved performance and stability with consistent results. This indicates that HEDGTC can effectively capture implicit temporal patterns in complex spatiotemporal data., Comment: 10 pages

Several types of spoofed audio, such as mimicry, replay attacks, and deepfakes, have created societal challenges to information integrity. Recently, researchers have worked with sociolinguistics experts to label spoofed audio samples with Expert Defined Linguistic Features (EDLFs) that can be discerned by the human ear: pitch, pause, word-initial and word-final release bursts of consonant stops, audible intake or outtake of breath, and overall audio quality. It is established that there is an improvement in several deepfake detection algorithms when they augmented the traditional and common features of audio data with these EDLFs. In this paper, using a hybrid dataset comprised of multiple types of spoofed audio augmented with sociolinguistic annotations, we investigate causal discovery and inferences between the discernible linguistic features and the label in the audio clips, comparing the findings of the causal models with the expert ground truth validation labeling process. Our findings suggest that the causal models indicate the utility of incorporating linguistic features to help discern spoofed audio, as well as the overall need and opportunity to incorporate human knowledge into models and techniques for strengthening AI models. The causal discovery and inference can be used as a foundation of training humans to discern spoofed audio as well as automating EDLFs labeling for the purpose of performance improvement of the common AI-based spoofed audio detectors.

Atmospheric gravity waves occur in the Earths atmosphere caused by an interplay between gravity and buoyancy forces. These waves have profound impacts on various aspects of the atmosphere, including the patterns of precipitation, cloud formation, ozone distribution, aerosols, and pollutant dispersion. Therefore, understanding gravity waves is essential to comprehend and monitor changes in a wide range of atmospheric behaviors. Limited studies have been conducted to identify gravity waves from satellite data using machine learning techniques. Particularly, without applying noise removal techniques, it remains an underexplored area of research. This study presents a novel kernel design aimed at identifying gravity waves within satellite images. The proposed kernel is seamlessly integrated into a deep convolutional neural network, denoted as gWaveNet. Our proposed model exhibits impressive proficiency in detecting images containing gravity waves from noisy satellite data without any feature engineering. The empirical results show our model outperforms related approaches by achieving over 98% training accuracy and over 94% test accuracy which is known to be the best result for gravity waves detection up to the time of this work. We open sourced our code at https://rb.gy/qn68ku., Comment: This paper has been accepted at the 27th International Conference on Pattern Recognition (ICPR) 2024

Spatial interference (SI) occurs when the treatment at one location affects the outcomes at other locations. Accounting for spatial interference in spatiotemporal settings poses further challenges as interference violates the stable unit treatment value assumption, making it infeasible for standard causal inference methods to quantify the effects of time-varying treatment at spatially varying outcomes. In this paper, we first formalize the concept of spatial interference in case of time-varying treatment assignments by extending the potential outcome framework under the assumption of no unmeasured confounding. We then propose our deep learning based potential outcome model for spatiotemporal causal inference. We utilize latent factor modeling to reduce the bias due to time-varying confounding while leveraging the power of U-Net architecture to capture global and local spatial interference in data over time. Our causal estimators are an extension of average treatment effect (ATE) for estimating direct (DATE) and indirect effects (IATE) of spatial interference on treated and untreated data. Being the first of its kind deep learning based spatiotemporal causal inference technique, our approach shows advantages over several baseline methods based on the experiment results on two synthetic datasets, with and without spatial interference. Our results on real-world climate dataset also align with domain knowledge, further demonstrating the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Ocean eddies play a significant role both on the sea surface and beneath it, contributing to the sustainability of marine life dependent on oceanic behaviors. Therefore, it is crucial to investigate ocean eddies to monitor changes in the Earth, particularly in the oceans, and their impact on climate. This study aims to pinpoint ocean eddies using AWS cloud services, specifically SageMaker. The primary objective is to detect small-scale (<20km) ocean eddies from satellite remote images and assess the feasibility of utilizing SageMaker, which offers tools for deploying AI applications. Moreover, this research not only explores the deployment of cloud-based services for remote sensing of Earth data but also evaluates several YOLO (You Only Look Once) models using single and multi-GPU-based services in the cloud. Furthermore, this study underscores the potential of these services, their limitations, challenges related to deployment and resource management, and their user-riendliness for Earth science projects., Comment: 10 pages

This survey paper covers the breadth and depth of time-series and spatiotemporal causality methods, and their applications in Earth Science. More specifically, the paper presents an overview of causal discovery and causal inference, explains the underlying causal assumptions, and enlists evaluation techniques and key terminologies of the domain area. The paper elicits the various state-of-the-art methods introduced for time-series and spatiotemporal causal analysis along with their strengths and limitations. The paper further describes the existing applications of several methods for answering specific Earth Science questions such as extreme weather events, sea level rise, teleconnections etc. This survey paper can serve as a primer for Data Science researchers interested in data-driven causal study as we share a list of resources, such as Earth Science datasets (synthetic, simulated and observational data) and open source tools for causal analysis. It will equally benefit the Earth Science community interested in taking an AI-driven approach to study the causality of different dynamic and thermodynamic processes as we present the open challenges and opportunities in performing causality-based Earth Science study.

The growing availability and importance of time series data across various domains, including environmental science, epidemiology, and economics, has led to an increasing need for time-series causal discovery methods that can identify the intricate relationships in the non-stationary, non-linear, and often noisy real world data. However, the majority of current time series causal discovery methods assume stationarity and linear relations in data, making them infeasible for the task. Further, the recent deep learning-based methods rely on the traditional causal structure learning approaches making them computationally expensive. In this paper, we propose a Time-Series Causal Neural Network (TS-CausalNN) - a deep learning technique to discover contemporaneous and lagged causal relations simultaneously. Our proposed architecture comprises (i) convolutional blocks comprising parallel custom causal layers, (ii) acyclicity constraint, and (iii) optimization techniques using the augmented Lagrangian approach. In addition to the simple parallel design, an advantage of the proposed model is that it naturally handles the non-stationarity and non-linearity of the data. Through experiments on multiple synthetic and real world datasets, we demonstrate the empirical proficiency of our proposed approach as compared to several state-of-the-art methods. The inferred graphs for the real world dataset are in good agreement with the domain understanding.

In the realm of Earth science, effective cloud property retrieval, encompassing cloud masking, cloud phase classification, and cloud optical thickness (COT) prediction, remains pivotal. Traditional methodologies necessitate distinct models for each sensor instrument due to their unique spectral characteristics. Recent strides in Earth Science research have embraced machine learning and deep learning techniques to extract features from satellite datasets' spectral observations. However, prevailing approaches lack novel architectures accounting for hierarchical relationships among retrieval tasks. Moreover, considering the spectral diversity among existing sensors, the development of models with robust generalization capabilities over different sensor datasets is imperative. Surprisingly, there is a dearth of methodologies addressing the selection of an optimal model for diverse datasets. In response, this paper introduces MT-HCCAR, an end-to-end deep learning model employing multi-task learning to simultaneously tackle cloud masking, cloud phase retrieval (classification tasks), and COT prediction (a regression task). The MT-HCCAR integrates a hierarchical classification network (HC) and a classification-assisted attention-based regression network (CAR), enhancing precision and robustness in cloud labeling and COT prediction. Additionally, a comprehensive model selection method rooted in K-fold cross-validation, one standard error rule, and two introduced performance scores is proposed to select the optimal model over three simulated satellite datasets OCI, VIIRS, and ABI. The experiments comparing MT-HCCAR with baseline methods, the ablation studies, and the model selection affirm the superiority and the generalization capabilities of MT-HCCAR., Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures, accepted by ECML PKDD 2024

Arctic sea ice plays integral roles in both polar and global environmental systems, notably ecosystems, communities, and economies. As sea ice continues to decline due to climate change, it has become imperative to accurately predict the future of sea ice extent (SIE). Using datasets of Arctic meteorological and SIE variables spanning 1979 to 2021, we propose architectures capable of processing multivariate time series and spatiotemporal data. Our proposed framework consists of ensembled stacked Fourier Transform signals (FFTstack) and Gradient Boosting models. In FFTstack, grid search iteratively detects the optimal combination of representative FFT signals, a process that improves upon current FFT implementations and deseasonalizers. An optimized Gradient Boosting Regressor is then trained on the residual of the FFTstack output. Through experiment, we found that the models trained on both multivariate and spatiotemporal time series data performed either similar to or better than models in existing research. In addition, we found that integration of FFTstack improves the performance of current multivariate time series models. We conclude that the high flexibility and performance of this methodology have promising applications in guiding future adaptation, resilience, and mitigation efforts in response to Arctic sea ice retreat., Comment: Published at IEEE ICMLA 2023 REU Symposium. This version includes minor updates made in the text after original publication

Inter-city highway transportation is significant for urban life. As one of the key functions in intelligent transportation system (ITS), traffic evaluation always plays significant role nowadays, and daily traffic flow prediction still faces challenges at network-wide toll stations. On the one hand, the data imbalance in practice among various locations deteriorates the performance of prediction. On the other hand, complex correlative spatio-temporal factors cannot be comprehensively employed in long-term duration. In this paper, a prediction method is proposed for daily traffic flow in highway domain through spatio-temporal deep learning. In our method, data normalization strategy is used to deal with data imbalance, due to long-tail distribution of traffic flow at network-wide toll stations. And then, based on graph convolutional network, we construct networks in distinct semantics to capture spatio-temporal features. Beside that, meteorology and calendar features are used by our model in the full connection stage to extra external characteristics of traffic flow. By extensive experiments and case studies in one Chinese provincial highway, our method shows clear improvement in predictive accuracy than baselines and practical benefits in business.

Arctic amplification has altered the climate patterns both regionally and globally, resulting in more frequent and more intense extreme weather events in the past few decades. The essential part of Arctic amplification is the unprecedented sea ice loss as demonstrated by satellite observations. Accurately forecasting Arctic sea ice from sub-seasonal to seasonal scales has been a major research question with fundamental challenges at play. In addition to physics-based Earth system models, researchers have been applying multiple statistical and machine learning models for sea ice forecasting. Looking at the potential of data-driven approaches to study sea ice variations, we propose MT-IceNet - a UNet based spatial and multi-temporal (MT) deep learning model for forecasting Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC). The model uses an encoder-decoder architecture with skip connections and processes multi-temporal input streams to regenerate spatial maps at future timesteps. Using bi-monthly and monthly satellite retrieved sea ice data from NSIDC as well as atmospheric and oceanic variables from ERA5 reanalysis product during 1979-2021, we show that our proposed model provides promising predictive performance for per-pixel SIC forecasting with up to 60% decrease in prediction error for a lead time of 6 months as compared to its state-of-the-art counterparts., Comment: Published at IEEE BDCAT 2022. This version includes minor updates made in the text after original publication

Clustering high-dimensional spatiotemporal data using an unsupervised approach is a challenging problem for many data-driven applications. Existing state-of-the-art methods for unsupervised clustering use different similarity and distance functions but focus on either spatial or temporal features of the data. Concentrating on joint deep representation learning of spatial and temporal features, we propose Deep Spatiotemporal Clustering (DSC), a novel algorithm for the temporal clustering of high-dimensional spatiotemporal data using an unsupervised deep learning method. Inspired by the U-net architecture, DSC utilizes an autoencoder integrating CNN-RNN layers to learn latent representations of the spatiotemporal data. DSC also includes a unique layer for cluster assignment on latent representations that uses the Student's t-distribution. By optimizing the clustering loss and data reconstruction loss simultaneously, the algorithm gradually improves clustering assignments and the nonlinear mapping between low-dimensional latent feature space and high-dimensional original data space. A multivariate spatiotemporal climate dataset is used to evaluate the efficacy of the proposed method. Our extensive experiments show our approach outperforms both conventional and deep learning-based unsupervised clustering algorithms. Additionally, we compared the proposed model with its various variants (CNN encoder, CNN autoencoder, CNN-RNN encoder, CNN-RNN autoencoder, etc.) to get insight into using both the CNN and RNN layers in the autoencoder, and our proposed technique outperforms these variants in terms of clustering results., Comment: Accepted by the European Conference on Machine Learning and Principles and Practice of Knowledge Discovery in Databases (ECML PKDD 2023)

The warming of the Arctic, also known as Arctic amplification, is led by several atmospheric and oceanic drivers. However, the details of its underlying thermodynamic causes are still unknown. Inferring the causal effects of atmospheric processes on sea ice melt using fixed treatment effect strategies leads to unrealistic counterfactual estimations. Such models are also prone to bias due to time-varying confoundedness. Further, the complex non-linearity in Earth science data makes it infeasible to perform causal inference using existing marginal structural techniques. In order to tackle these challenges, we propose TCINet - time-series causal inference model to infer causation under continuous treatment using recurrent neural networks and a novel probabilistic balancing technique. Through experiments on synthetic and observational data, we show how our research can substantially improve the ability to quantify leading causes of Arctic sea ice melt, further paving paths for causal inference in observational Earth science., Comment: Accepted by ICMLA 2023

The increasing use of Machine Learning (ML) software can lead to unfair and unethical decisions, thus fairness bugs in software are becoming a growing concern. Addressing these fairness bugs often involves sacrificing ML performance, such as accuracy. To address this issue, we present a novel counterfactual approach that uses counterfactual thinking to tackle the root causes of bias in ML software. In addition, our approach combines models optimized for both performance and fairness, resulting in an optimal solution in both aspects. We conducted a thorough evaluation of our approach on 10 benchmark tasks using a combination of 5 performance metrics, 3 fairness metrics, and 15 measurement scenarios, all applied to 8 real-world datasets. The conducted extensive evaluations show that the proposed method significantly improves the fairness of ML software while maintaining competitive performance, outperforming state-of-the-art solutions in 84.6% of overall cases based on a recent benchmarking tool.

With the popularity of Internet of Things (IoT), edge computing and cloud computing, more and more stream analytics applications are being developed including real-time trend prediction and object detection on top of IoT sensing data. One popular type of stream analytics is the recurrent neural network (RNN) deep learning model based time series or sequence data prediction and forecasting. Different from traditional analytics that assumes data are available ahead of time and will not change, stream analytics deals with data that are being generated continuously and data trend/distribution could change (a.k.a. concept drift), which will cause prediction/forecasting accuracy to drop over time. One other challenge is to find the best resource provisioning for stream analytics to achieve good overall latency. In this paper, we study how to best leverage edge and cloud resources to achieve better accuracy and latency for stream analytics using a type of RNN model called long short-term memory (LSTM). We propose a novel edge-cloud integrated framework for hybrid stream analytics that supports low latency inference on the edge and high capacity training on the cloud. To achieve flexible deployment, we study different approaches of deploying our hybrid learning framework including edge-centric, cloud-centric and edge-cloud integrated. Further, our hybrid learning framework can dynamically combine inference results from an LSTM model pre-trained based on historical data and another LSTM model re-trained periodically based on the most recent data. Using real-world and simulated stream datasets, our experiments show the proposed edge-cloud deployment is the best among all three deployment types in terms of latency. For accuracy, the experiments show our dynamic learning approach performs the best among all learning approaches for all three concept drift scenarios., Comment: accepted by journal Future Generation Computer Systems

Cloud computing has become a major approach to help reproduce computational experiments. Yet there are still two main difficulties in reproducing batch based big data analytics (including descriptive and predictive analytics) in the cloud. The first is how to automate end-to-end scalable execution of analytics including distributed environment provisioning, analytics pipeline description, parallel execution, and resource termination. The second is that an application developed for one cloud is difficult to be reproduced in another cloud, a.k.a. vendor lock-in problem. To tackle these problems, we leverage serverless computing and containerization techniques for automated scalable execution and reproducibility, and utilize the adapter design pattern to enable application portability and reproducibility across different clouds. We propose and develop an open-source toolkit that supports 1) fully automated end-to-end execution and reproduction via a single command, 2) automated data and configuration storage for each execution, 3) flexible client modes based on user preferences, 4) execution history query, and 5) simple reproduction of existing executions in the same environment or a different environment. We did extensive experiments on both AWS and Azure using four big data analytics applications that run on virtual CPU/GPU clusters. The experiments show our toolkit can achieve good execution performance, scalability, and efficient reproducibility for cloud-based big data analytics., Comment: accepted by journal IEEE Transactions on Cloud Computing

Accurately forecasting Arctic sea ice from subseasonal to seasonal scales has been a major scientific effort with fundamental challenges at play. In addition to physics-based earth system models, researchers have been applying multiple statistical and machine learning models for sea ice forecasting. Looking at the potential of data-driven sea ice forecasting, we propose an attention-based Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) ensemble method to predict monthly sea ice extent up to 1 month ahead. Using daily and monthly satellite retrieved sea ice data from NSIDC and atmospheric and oceanic variables from ERA5 reanalysis product for 39 years, we show that our multi-temporal ensemble method outperforms several baseline and recently proposed deep learning models. This will substantially improve our ability in predicting future Arctic sea ice changes, which is fundamental for forecasting transporting routes, resource development, coastal erosion, threats to Arctic coastal communities and wildlife., Comment: Accepted by the Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning Workshop at the 2021 International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2021)

A self-organizing map (SOM) is a type of competitive artificial neural network, which projects the high-dimensional input space of the training samples into a low-dimensional space with the topology relations preserved. This makes SOMs supportive of organizing and visualizing complex data sets and have been pervasively used among numerous disciplines with different applications. Notwithstanding its wide applications, the self-organizing map is perplexed by its inherent randomness, which produces dissimilar SOM patterns even when being trained on identical training samples with the same parameters every time, and thus causes usability concerns for other domain practitioners and precludes more potential users from exploring SOM based applications in a broader spectrum. Motivated by this practical concern, we propose a deterministic approach as a supplement to the standard self-organizing map. In accordance with the theoretical design, the experimental results with satellite cloud data demonstrate the effective and efficient organization as well as simplification capabilities of the proposed approach., Comment: Accepted to IEEE Big Data 2018