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We propose a unified framework for Singing Voice Synthesis (SVS) and Conversion (SVC), addressing the limitations of existing approaches in cross-domain SVS/SVC, poor output musicality, and scarcity of singing data. Our framework enables control over multiple aspects, including language content based on lyrics, performance attributes based on a musical score, singing style and vocal techniques based on a selector, and voice identity based on a speech sample. The proposed zero-shot learning paradigm consists of one SVS model and two SVC models, utilizing pre-trained content embeddings and a diffusion-based generator. The proposed framework is also trained on mixed datasets comprising both singing and speech audio, allowing singing voice cloning based on speech reference. Experiments show substantial improvements in timbre similarity and musicality over state-of-the-art baselines, providing insights into other low-data music tasks such as instrumental style transfer. Examples can be found at: everyone-can-sing.github.io.

The o1 model series is trained with large-scale reinforcement learning to reason using chain of thought. These advanced reasoning capabilities provide new avenues for improving the safety and robustness of our models. In particular, our models can reason about our safety policies in context when responding to potentially unsafe prompts, through deliberative alignment. This leads to state-of-the-art performance on certain benchmarks for risks such as generating illicit advice, choosing stereotyped responses, and succumbing to known jailbreaks. Training models to incorporate a chain of thought before answering has the potential to unlock substantial benefits, while also increasing potential risks that stem from heightened intelligence. Our results underscore the need for building robust alignment methods, extensively stress-testing their efficacy, and maintaining meticulous risk management protocols. This report outlines the safety work carried out for the OpenAI o1 and OpenAI o1-mini models, including safety evaluations, external red teaming, and Preparedness Framework evaluations.

Macro variables frequently display time-varying distributions, driven by the dynamic and evolving characteristics of economic, social, and environmental factors that consistently reshape the fundamental patterns and relationships governing these variables. To better understand the distributional dynamics beyond the central tendency, this paper introduces a novel semi-parametric approach for constructing time-varying conditional distributions, relying on the recent advances in distributional regression. We present an efficient precision-based Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm that simultaneously estimates all model parameters while explicitly enforcing the monotonicity condition on the conditional distribution function. Our model is applied to construct the forecasting distribution of inflation for the U.S., conditional on a set of macroeconomic and financial indicators. The risks of future inflation deviating excessively high or low from the desired range are carefully evaluated. Moreover, we provide a thorough discussion about the interplay between inflation and unemployment rates during the Global Financial Crisis, COVID, and the third quarter of 2023.

Vector autoregression is an essential tool in empirical macroeconomics and finance for understanding the dynamic interdependencies among multivariate time series. In this study, we expand the scope of vector autoregression by incorporating a multivariate distributional regression framework and introducing a distributional impulse response function, providing a comprehensive view of dynamic heterogeneity. We propose a straightforward yet flexible estimation method and establish its asymptotic properties under weak dependence assumptions. Our empirical analysis examines the conditional joint distribution of GDP growth and financial conditions in the United States, with a focus on the global financial crisis. Our results show that tight financial conditions lead to a multimodal conditional joint distribution of GDP growth and financial conditions, and easing financial conditions significantly impacts long-term GDP growth, while improving the GDP growth during the global financial crisis has limited effects on financial conditions.

Universal domain adaptation (UniDA) is a general unsupervised domain adaptation setting, which addresses both domain and label shifts in adaptation. Its main challenge lies in how to identify target samples in unshared or unknown classes. Previous methods commonly strive to depict sample "confidence" along with a threshold for rejecting unknowns, and align feature distributions of shared classes across domains. However, it is still hard to pre-specify a "confidence" criterion and threshold which are adaptive to various real tasks, and a mis-prediction of unknowns further incurs misalignment of features in shared classes. In this paper, we propose a new UniDA method with adaptive Unknown Authentication by Classifier Paradox (UACP), considering that samples with paradoxical predictions are probably unknowns belonging to none of the source classes. In UACP, a composite classifier is jointly designed with two types of predictors. That is, a multi-class (MC) predictor classifies samples to one of the multiple source classes, while a binary one-vs-all (OVA) predictor further verifies the prediction by MC predictor. Samples with verification failure or paradox are identified as unknowns. Further, instead of feature alignment for shared classes, implicit domain alignment is conducted in output space such that samples across domains share the same decision boundary, though with feature discrepancy. Empirical results validate UACP under both open-set and universal UDA settings.

Previous unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) methods aim to promote target learning via a single-directional knowledge transfer from label-rich source domain to unlabeled target domain, while its reverse adaption from target to source has not jointly been considered yet so far. In fact, in some real teaching practice, a teacher helps students learn while also gets promotion from students to some extent, which inspires us to explore a dual-directional knowledge transfer between domains, and thus propose a Dual-Correction Adaptation Network (DualCAN) in this paper. However, due to the asymmetrical label knowledge across domains, transfer from unlabeled target to labeled source poses a more difficult challenge than the common source-to-target counterpart. First, the target pseudo-labels predicted by source commonly involve noises due to model bias, hence in the reverse adaptation, they may hurt the source performance and bring a negative target-to-source transfer. Secondly, source domain usually contains innate noises, which will inevitably aggravate the target noises, leading to noise amplification across domains. To this end, we further introduce a Noise Identification and Correction (NIC) module to correct and recycle noises in both domains. To our best knowledge, this is the first naive attempt of dual-directional adaptation for noisy UDA, and naturally applicable to noise-free UDA. A theory justification is given to state the rationality of our intuition. Empirical results confirm the effectiveness of DualCAN with remarkable performance gains over state-of-the-arts, particularly for extreme noisy tasks (e.g., ~+ 15% on Pw->Pr and Pr->Rw of Office-Home).

Understanding variable dependence, particularly eliciting their statistical properties given a set of covariates, provides the mathematical foundation in practical operations management such as risk analysis and decision-making given observed circumstances. This article presents an estimation method for modeling the conditional joint distribution of bivariate outcomes based on the distribution regression and factorization methods. This method is considered semiparametric in that it allows for flexible modeling of both the marginal and joint distributions conditional on covariates without imposing global parametric assumptions across the entire distribution. In contrast to existing parametric approaches, our method can accommodate discrete, continuous, or mixed variables, and provides a simple yet effective way to capture distributional dependence structures between bivariate outcomes and covariates. Various simulation results confirm that our method can perform similarly or better in finite samples compared to the alternative methods. In an application to the study of a motor third-party liability insurance portfolio, the proposed method effectively estimates risk measures such as the conditional Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. This result suggests that this semiparametric approach can serve as an alternative in insurance risk management.

The pre-training on the graph neural network model can learn the general features of large-scale networks or networks of the same type by self-supervised methods, which allows the model to work even when node labels are missing. However, the existing pre-training methods do not take network evolution into consideration. This paper proposes a pre-training method on dynamic graph neural networks (PT-DGNN), which uses dynamic attributed graph generation tasks to simultaneously learn the structure, semantics, and evolution features of the graph. The method includes two steps: 1) dynamic sub-graph sampling, and 2) pre-training with dynamic attributed graph generation task. Comparative experiments on three realistic dynamic network datasets show that the proposed method achieves the best results on the link prediction fine-tuning task.