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Periods of water surplus and deficit in Northern California follow a pronounced quasi-decadal cycle. This cycle is largely driven by the frequency of atmospheric rivers (ARs), affecting the region’s wet and dry periods. Our analyses demonstrate that the quasi-decadal cycle of AR frequency relies on moisture transport associated with the position and intensity of the Aleutian Low. In observations, the Aleutian Low is shown to covary with tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. A modeling experiment, which incorporates ocean observations from the equatorial Pacific into the fully coupled climate model, provides support that the quasi-decadal cycle of the Aleutian Low is forced by the tropical Pacific. Subsequently, the tropical Pacific modulates the wet season moisture transport toward California on decadal time scales, affecting AR frequency. These results provide metrics for improving interannual-to-decadal prediction of AR activity, which drives hydrological cycles in Northern California.

Temperate fruit trees require chilling for rest completion, followed by sufficient heat accumulation for onset of growth and bloom. The application of phenological models to predict bloom dates has been widely used in orchard management. Examples of such application include selecting adapted cultivars less prone to early bloom, predicting needs for frost protection, and preventing damage from late spring freezes. This study merged the Utah (chill) and ASYMCUR (forcing) phenological models by combining chill units and heat units (measured in growing degree hours) to predict bloom dates of tart cherries (Prunus cerasus L.) in Utah and Michigan, the top producing states of the USA. It was found that the modified Utah model improves the estimation of chill units compared with the original one, while the original Utah model may still be suitable for use in the colder winter of Michigan (with its later bloom dates than Utah). The combined models were applied with the temperature predicted by the Climate Forecast System v2 (CFSv2) model. The prediction was applied twice a month, starting from 1 February to 1 May. The Utah-ASYMCUR model using the forecasted temperature from CFSv2 exhibits subseasonal performance in predicting the bloom dates for 6 weeks in advance. The prediction can offer growers a way to mitigate extreme climate anomalies.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the leading mode of Pacific decadal sea surface temperature variability, arises mainly from combinations of regional air-sea interaction within the North Pacific Ocean and remote forcing, such as from the tropical Pacific and the Atlantic. Because of such a combination of mechanisms, a question remains as to how much PDO variability originates from these regions. To better understand PDO variability, the equatorial Pacific and the Atlantic impacts on the PDO are examined using several 3-dimensional partial ocean data assimilation experiments conducted with two global climate models: the CESM1.0 and MIROC3.2m. In these partial assimilation experiments, the climate models are constrained by observed temperature and salinity anomalies, one solely in the Atlantic basin and the other solely in the equatorial Pacific basin, but are allowed to evolve freely in other regions. These experiments demonstrate that, in addition to the tropical Pacific’s role in driving PDO variability, the Atlantic can affect PDO variability by modulating the tropical Pacific climate through two proposed processes. One is the equatorial pathway, in which tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability causes an El Niño-like SST response in the equatorial Pacific through the reorganization of the global Walker circulation. The other is the north tropical pathway, where low-frequency SST variability associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation induces a Matsuno-Gill type atmospheric response in the tropical Atlantic-Pacific sectors north of the equator. These results provide a quantitative assessment suggesting that 12–29% of PDO variance originates from the Atlantic Ocean and 40–44% from the tropical Pacific. The remaining 27–48% of the variance is inferred to arise from other processes such as regional ocean-atmosphere interactions in the North Pacific and possibly teleconnections from the Indian Ocean.

The summer monsoon inversion in the Arabian Sea is characterized by a large amount of low clouds and August as the peak season. Atmospheric stratification associated with the monsoon inversion has been considered a local system influenced by the advancement of the India–Pakistan monsoon. Empirical and numerical evidence from this study suggests that the Arabian Sea monsoon inversion is linked to a broader-scale monsoon evolution across the African Sahel, South Asia, and East Asia–Western North Pacific (WNP), rather than being a mere byproduct of the India–Pakistan monsoon progression. In August, the upper-tropospheric anticyclone in South Asia extends sideways corresponding with the enhanced precipitation in the subtropical WNP, equatorial Indian Ocean, and African Sahel while the middle part of this anticyclone weakens over the Arabian Sea. The increased heating in the adjacent monsoon systems creates a suppression effect on the Arabian Sea, suggesting an apparent competition among the Africa–Asia–WNP monsoon subsystems. The peak Sahel rainfall in August, together with enhanced heating in the equatorial Indian Ocean, produces a critical effect on strengthening the Arabian Sea thermal inversion. By contrast, the WNP monsoon onset which signifies the eastward expansion of the subtropical Asian monsoon heating might play a secondary or opposite role in the Arabian Sea monsoon inversion.

Amplified and persistent ridges in western North America are recurring features associated with drought conditions in California. The recent drought event (2012–2016) lasted through both La Niña and El Niño episodes, suggesting additional climate drivers are important in addition to the commonly perceived El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Diagnostic analyses presented here suggest that, while the Pacific North American (PNA) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) do not directly cause drought in California, the relationships between them and with the upper air circulation pattern do modulate the spatial drought pattern. The positive PNA relative circulation leads drier northern California, and (-NPO) relative circulation leads southern California to be drier. The types of drought in this region emerge mostly from the combination of two PNA and NPO relative oceanic and atmospheric oscillations. At present, climate model projections do not indicate any significant change in these particular drought-modulating processes.

Since the winter of 2013–2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California’s climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns.

The 2013–2014 winter in North America brought intense drought in the West and severe cold in the East. The circulation anomalies were characterized as a dipole: an amplified upper-level ridge over the West Coast and a deepened trough over the central-eastern United States. A previous study using a single model has linked the dipole to the El Niño precursor and found that this link has strengthened in recent years. Here, 17 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 are used to examine the dipole activity. Most models capture the dipole and its association with El Niño precursor and project this association to strengthen.

The Bear River contributes more water to the eastern Great Basin than any other river system. It is also the most significant source of water for the burgeoning Wasatch Front metropolitan area in Northern Utah. Despite its importance for water resources for the region’s agricultural, urban, and wildlife needs, our understanding of the variability of Bear River’s stream flow derives entirely from the short instrumental record (1943-2010). Here we present a 1,200-year calibrated and verified tree-ring reconstruction of stream flow for the Bear River that explains 67% of the variance of the instrumental record over the period from 1943-2010. Furthermore, we developed this reconstruction from a species that is not typically used for dendroclimatology, Utah juniper (Juniperus osteosperma). We identify highly significant periodicity in our reconstruction at quasi-decadal (7-8 year), multi-decadal (30 year), and centennial (>50 years) scales. The latter half of the 20th century was found to be the 2nd wettest (~40-year) period of the past 1,200 years, while the first half of the 20th century marked the 4th driest period. The most severe period of reduced stream flow occurred during the Medieval Warm Period (ca. mid-1200s CE) and persisted for ~70 years. Upper-level circulation anomalies suggest that atmospheric teleconnections originating in the western tropical Pacific are responsible for the delivery of precipitation to the Bear River watershed during the October- December (OND) season of the previous year. The Bear River flow was compared to recent reconstructions of the other tributaries to the Great Salt Lake (GSL) and the GSL level. Implications for water management could be drawn from the observation that the latter half of the 20th century was the 2nd wettest in 1200 years, and that management for future water supply should take into account the stream flow variability over the past millennium.

Autumn precipitation over Central Vietnam is associated with an increase in the occurrence of tropical cyclones that lead to frequent flooding and pose a significant threat to lives and property. The present analyses reveal a pronounced decadal oscillation of autumn precipitation in Central Vietnam within the 8-11 year frequency band that is modulated by the East Pacific-North Pacific (EP-NP) teleconnection. The negative phase of the EP-NP pattern is associated with a positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the South China Sea (SCS) that induces low-level convergence, enhances convection, and increases precipitation over Central Vietnam and adjacent islands including Hainan (China) and the Philippines. This circulation feature around the SCS is embedded in a large-scale circulation associated with SST anomalies across the Pacific Ocean-i.e., cooling in the Eastern and Central tropical Pacific sandwiched by warming in the North and South Pacific as well as the Western Pacific Ocean. The positive phase of the EP-NP features opposite SST and circulation anomalies, with the result being reduced rainfall in Central Vietnam. This out-of-phase relationship and shared decadal spectral coherence between the EP-NP index and autumn precipitation in Central Vietnam might be useful for future climate predictions and flood management.

Large biases associated with climate projections are problematic when it comes to their regional application in the assessment of water resources and ecosystems. We produced a set of regional climate projections that have the systematic biases reduced. The dataset first utilized a statistical regression technique and a global reanalysis dataset to correct biases in the globally-simulated variables that are subsequently used to drive the regional model. The bias-corrected global simulation data led to a more realistic regional climate simulation of precipitation and associated atmospheric dynamics, as well as snow water equivalent (SWE) in comparison to the original globally-driven simulation. This effective and economical method provides a useful tool to reduce biases in regional climate downscaling simulations of water resource variables.

The 2013–2014 California drought was initiated by an anomalous high-amplitude ridge system. The anomalous ridge was investigated using reanalysis data and the Community Earth System Model (CESM). It was found that the ridge emerged from continual sources of Rossby wave energy in the western North Pacific starting in late summer and subsequently intensified into winter. The ridge generated a surge of wave energy downwind and deepened further the trough over the northeast U.S., forming a dipole. The dipole and associated circulation pattern is not linked directly with either El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or Pacific Decadal Oscillation; instead, it is correlated with a type of ENSO precursor. The connection between the dipole and ENSO precursor has become stronger since the 1970s, and this is attributed to increased greenhouse gas loading as simulated by the CESM. Therefore, there is a traceable anthropogenic warming footprint in the enormous intensity of the anomalous ridge during winter 2013–2014 and the associated drought.

This paper summarizes research related to the 2012 record drought in the central United States conducted by members of the NEWS (NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Energy and Water cycle Study) Working Group. Past drought patterns were analyzed for signal coherency with latest drought and the contribution of long-term trends in the Great Plains low-level jet, an important regional circulation feature of the spring rainy season in the Great Plains. Long-term changes in the seasonal transition from rainy spring into dry summer were also examined. Potential external forcing from radiative processes, soil-air interactions, and ocean teleconnections were assessed as contributors to the intensity of the drought. The atmospheric Rossby wave activity was found to be a potential source of predictability for the onset of drought. A probabilistic model was introduced and evaluated for its performance in predicting drought recovery in the Great Plains.

The pre-monsoon tropical cyclone (TC) activity and the monsoon evolution in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are both influenced by the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), but the two do not always occur in unison. This study examines the conditions that allow the MJO to modulate the monsoon onset in Myanmar and TC activity concurrently. Using the APHRODITE gridded precipitation and the ERA-Interim reanalysis datasets, composite evolutions of monsoon rainfall and TC genesis are constructed for the period of 1979–2010. It is found that the MJO exhibits a strong interannual variability in terms of phase and intensity, which in some years modulate the conditions for BoB TCs to shortly precede or form concurrently with the monsoon onset in Myanmar. Such a modulation is absent in years of weaker MJO events. Further understanding of the interannual variability of MJO activity could facilitate the prediction of the monsoon onset and TC formation in the BoB.

In 2009, the Interior West Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program of the U.S. Forest Service started to archive approximatel y 11 000 increment cores collected in the Interior West states during the periodic inventories of the 1980s and 1990s. The two primary goals for use of the data were to provide a plot-linked database of radial growth to be used for growth model development and other biometric analyses, and to develop a gridded dendroecological database that could be used to analyze regional patterns of climate, disturbance, and other ecosystem-scale processes. Early analysis related to the latter goal showed that the fi nely gridded data could be used to map past climatic patterns with more detail than is possible using traditional chronologies. FIA-based Douglas-fi r and pinyon pine chronologies showed high temporal coherence with previously published tree-ring chronologies, and the spatial and temporal coherence between the FIA data and water year precipitation was strong. FIA data also captured the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dipole and revealed considerable latitudinal fl uctuation over the past three centuries. Finally, the FIA data confi rmed the coupling between wet/dry cycles and Pacifi c decadal variability known to exist for the Intermountain West. These results highlight the further potential for high-spatial-resolution climate proxy data sets for the western United States.

We present evidence that the de-trended, boreal winter sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the western North Pacific (WNP) are a skillful predictor for the development of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by the following winter. The WNP shares some similarities with the Meridional Mode (MM) located in the subtropical central and eastern North Pacific: both are linked to off-equatorial SSTA and low-level wind anomalies, and both appear to be strongly related to wintertime variability in the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO). However, in contrast with the MM, the WNP is associated with an opposite-signed SSTA dipole located off southeastern Asia and in the western tropical Pacific, which is accompanied by equatorial winds that may influence the level of oceanic Kelvin wave activity that precedes ENSO events.

Climatology, the study of climate, is no longer regarded as a single discipline that treats climate as something that fluctuates only within the unchanging boundaries described by historical statistics. The field has recognized that climate is something that changes continually under the influence of physical and biological forces and so, cannot be understood in isolation but rather, is one that includes diverse scientific disciplines that play their role in understanding a highly complex coupled “whole system” that is the Earth’s climate. The modern era of climatology is echoed in this book. On the one hand it offers a broad synoptic perspective but also considers the regional standpoint as it is this that affects what people need from climatology, albeit water resource managers or engineers etc. Aspects on the topic of climate change – what is often considered a contradiction in terms – is also addressed. It is all too evident these days that what recent work in climatology has revealed carries profound implications for economic and social policy; it is with these in mind that the final chapters consider acumens as to the application of what has been learned to date. This book is divided into four sections that cover sub-disciplines in climatology. The first section contains four chapters that pertain to synoptic climatology, i.e., the study of weather disturbances including hurricanes, monsoon depressions, synoptic waves, and severe thunderstorms; these weather systems directly impact humanity. The second section on regional climatology has four chapters that describe the climate features within physiographically defined areas. The third section is on climate change which involves both past (paleoclimate) and future climate: The first two chapters cover certain facets of paleoclimate while the third is centered towards the signals (observed or otherwise) of climate change. The fourth and final section broaches the sub-discipline that is often referred to as applied climatology; this represents the important goal of all studies in climatology–one that affects modes of living. Here, three chapters are devoted towards the application of climatological research that might have useful application for operational purposes in industrial, manufacturing, agricultural, technological and environmental affairs. Please click here to explore the components of this work., https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/modern_climatology/1014/thumbnail.jpg

The Inter-Mountain West (IMW) of North America is a region that lies between the Rocky Mountains to the east and the Cascades and Sierra Nevada to the west (Fig. 1). The climate of the IMW is generally semi-arid but this varies by location and elevation. An estimated 50- 80% of the IMW’s streams and rivers are fed by mountain snowpack (Marks and Winstral 2001), while the majority of the streams and rivers flow into desert sinks or closed-basin lakes such as the Great Salt Lake (Fig. 1). These streams and rivers create some agriculturally productive areas in the otherwise dry basins and mountain valleys. In particular, the Colorado River supplies water to the population-booming southwestern states and cities. Climate in the Colorado River Basin has been a subject of intense research due to its projected drying trend (Barnett and Pierce 2008). Change in winter precipitation regime (i.e. ratio between rainfall and snowfall) is also a subject of interest not only because its role in water resource but also its impact on recreational (ski) industry in the IMW., https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/modern_climatology/1005/thumbnail.jpg

Increment cores collected as part of the periodic inventory in the Intermountain West were examined for their potential to represent growth and be a proxy for climate (precipitation) over a large region (Utah). Standardized and crossdated time-series created from pinyon pine (n=249) and Douglas-fir (n=274) increment cores displayed spatiotemporal patterns in growth differences both between species and by region within Utah. However, the between-species interrelationship of growth was strong over much of the state and indicated both species respond similarly to climate variations. Indeed, pinyon pine and Douglas-fir exhibited a significant and spatially coherent response to instrumental precipitation data. Previous water year (5-month lag) exhibited the strongest relationship to tree-ring increment for both species. Results suggest increment cores collected by Forest Inventory and Analysis are excellent proxies for historical precipitation.

Meteorological conditions related to the Pakistan floods of 2010 were examined in the context of monsoon dynamics and large‐scale circulations. Case and climatological analyses suggest that summer precipitation in northern Pakistan comprises two distinct phases: (1) a premonsoon trough phase (July) whose rainfall is more episodic and intense, occurring prior to arrival of the monsoon trough, and (2) a monsoon trough phase (August) whose rainfall is persistent, yet less episodic, driven by northward migration of the monsoon trough. Analyses of conditional instability, moisture flux, and circulation features support a persistent increase in conditional instability during the July premonsoon trough phase, accompanied by increased frequency of heavy rainfall events. Conversely, evidence does not support intensification of the August monsoon trough phase. The increased convective activity during the premonsoon trough phase agrees with the projected increase in the intensity of heavy rainfall events over northern Pakistan. Largescale circulation analysis reveals an upper‐level cyclonic anomaly over and to the west of Pakistan–a feature empirically associated with weak monsoon. The analysis also suggests that the anomalous circulation in 2010 is not sporadic but rather is part of a long‐term trend that defies the typical linkage of strong monsoons with an anomalous anticyclone in the upper troposphere.

A recent study identified significant spectral peaks in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) at quasi‐decadal frequency bands, which were unique to the tropical western Pacific (TWP). Using the multitaper method for spectral and coherence analysis, this study finds that the TWP SSTs at these quasi‐decadal time scales are coherent with western Pacific tropical cyclone threat [as measured by the power dissipation index (PDI)], but that the PDI lags TWP SSTs by about two years. Thus, the quasi‐decadal peaks in TWP SSTs may be a precursor for enhanced tropical cyclone threat two years later. Composite analyses are shown to illustrate how areal tropical cyclone frequencies and relevant atmospheric fields evolve following the quasidecadal peaks in TWP SSTs. The fields during peak PDI years strongly resemble those observed during El Niño events.

Using a composite procedure, North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) forecast and observed environments associated with zonally oriented, quasi-stationary surface fronts for 64 cases during July–August 2006–08 were examined for a large region encompassing the central United States. NAM adequately simulated the general synoptic features associated with the frontal environments (e.g., patterns in the low-level wind fields) as well as the positions of the fronts. However, kinematic fields important to frontogenesis such as horizontal deformation and convergence were overpredicted. Surface-based convective available potential energy (CAPE) and precipitable water were also overpredicted, which was likely related to the overprediction of the kinematic fields through convergence of water vapor flux. In addition, a spurious coherence between forecast deformation and precipitation was found using spatial correlation coefficients. Composite precipitation forecasts featured a broad area of rainfall stretched parallel to the composite front, whereas the composite observed precipitation covered a smaller area and had aWNW–ESE orientation relative to the front, consistent with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) propagating at a slight right angle relative to the thermal gradient. Thus, deficiencies in the NAM precipitation forecasts may at least partially result from the inability to depict MCSs properly. It was observed that errors in the precipitation forecasts appeared to lag those of the kinematic fields, and so it seems likely that deficiencies in the precipitation forecasts are related to the overprediction of the kinematic fields such as deformation. However, no attempts were made to establish whether the overpredicted kinematic fields actually contributed to the errors in the precipitation forecasts or whether the overpredicted kinematic fields were simply an artifact of the precipitation errors. Regardless of the relationship between such errors, recognition of typical warm-season environments associated with these errors should be useful to operational forecasters.

The diurnal wind variation over the East Asian continent is commonly considered to be a combination of a land-sea breeze near the coast and a mountain–valley breeze along the slopes of the Tibetan Plateau. The local land–sea breeze along the coastline typically spansHowever, a detailed examination of the global reanalysis data suggests that this local land–sea breeze circulation apparently couples with the global-scale diurnal atmospheric pressure tide to produce a planetary-scale land–sea breeze with a spatial scale of ∼1000 km over the western North Pacific. Computations of the momentum budget and equivalent potential temperatures indicate that the atmospheric diurnal tidal wave contributes the most to this circulation feature. A diagnosis of the water vapour budget further suggests that the convergence of water vapour flux, which is related to the convergence of low-level wind induced by the seasonal change of diurnal tidal wave, leads to different times of occurrence of maximum diurnal rainfall over East Asia between summer and winter.

Typhoon passages across Taiwan can generate sudden surface warming in downslope regions. Special characteristics and mechanisms for 54 such warming events that were identified during the 1961–2007 period are examined. Preferred warming regions were identified in northwest Taiwan, where warming is generated by downslope flow from east or northeast winds in westward-moving typhoons, and in southeast Taiwan, where it is generated by downslope flow from west or northwest winds in northwestward-moving typhoons. In addition to the orographic effect, warmings occurred exclusively within nonprecipitation zones of typhoons. Most northwest (southeast) warmings occur during the day (night) with an average lifetime of 4 (5) h, which roughly corresponds to the average time a nonprecipitation zone remains over a station. During the period examined, three typhoons generated warming events in both northwest and southeast Taiwan, and only Typhoon Haitang (2005) generated warmings with comparable magnitudes ( ; 12-K increase) in both regions. For Typhoon Haitang as an example, diagnostic analyses with two different approaches reveal that the majority of the warming is contributed by downslope adiabatic warming, but the warming associated with the passage of a nonprecipitation zone is not negligible. Similar results were found when these two diagnostic approaches were applied to the other warming events. The diurnal mode of the atmospheric divergent circulation over East Asia–western North Pacific undergoes a clockwise rotation. The vorticity tendency generated by this diurnal divergent circulation through vortex stretching may modulate the arrival time of typhoons to cause daily (nighttime) warming in the northwest (southeast).