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Transportation mode share analysis is important to various real-world transportation tasks as it helps researchers understand the travel behaviors and choices of passengers. A typical example is the prediction of communities' travel mode share by accounting for their sociodemographics like age, income, etc., and travel modes' attributes (e.g. travel cost and time). However, there exist only limited efforts in integrating the structure of the urban built environment, e.g., road networks, into the mode share models to capture the impacts of the built environment. This task usually requires manual feature engineering or prior knowledge of the urban design features. In this study, we propose deep hybrid models (DHM), which directly combine road networks and sociodemographic features as inputs for travel mode share analysis. Using graph embedding (GE) techniques, we enhance travel demand models with a more powerful representation of urban structures. In experiments of mode share prediction in Chicago, results demonstrate that DHM can provide valuable spatial insights into the sociodemographic structure, improving the performance of travel demand models in estimating different mode shares at the city level. Specifically, DHM improves the results by more than 20\% while retaining the interpretation power of the choice models, demonstrating its superiority in interpretability, prediction accuracy, and geographical insights., Comment: 29 pages

Deep neural networks (DNNs) frequently present behaviorally irregular patterns, significantly limiting their practical potentials and theoretical validity in travel behavior modeling. This study proposes strong and weak behavioral regularities as novel metrics to evaluate the monotonicity of individual demand functions (known as the "law of demand"), and further designs a constrained optimization framework with six gradient regularizers to enhance DNNs' behavioral regularity. The proposed framework is applied to travel survey data from Chicago and London to examine the trade-off between predictive power and behavioral regularity for large vs. small sample scenarios and in-domain vs. out-of-domain generalizations. The results demonstrate that, unlike models with strong behavioral foundations such as the multinomial logit, the benchmark DNNs cannot guarantee behavioral regularity. However, gradient regularization (GR) increases DNNs' behavioral regularity by around 6 percentage points (pp) while retaining their relatively high predictive power. In the small sample scenario, GR is more effective than in the large sample scenario, simultaneously improving behavioral regularity by about 20 pp and log-likelihood by around 1.7%. Comparing with the in-domain generalization of DNNs, GR works more effectively in out-of-domain generalization: it drastically improves the behavioral regularity of poorly performing benchmark DNNs by around 65 pp, indicating the criticality of behavioral regularization for enhancing model transferability and application in forecasting. Moreover, the proposed framework is applicable to other NN-based choice models such as TasteNets. Future studies could use behavioral regularity as a metric along with log-likelihood in evaluating travel demand models, and investigate other methods to further enhance behavioral regularity when adopting complex machine learning models.

Traffic accidents present substantial challenges to human safety and socio-economic development in urban areas. Developing a reliable and responsible traffic accident prediction model is crucial to addressing growing public safety concerns and enhancing the safety of urban mobility systems. Traditional methods face limitations at fine spatiotemporal scales due to the sporadic nature of highrisk accidents and the predominance of non-accident characteristics. Furthermore, while most current models show promising occurrence prediction, they overlook the uncertainties arising from the inherent nature of accidents, and then fail to adequately map the hierarchical ranking of accident risk values for more precise insights. To address these issues, we introduce the Spatiotemporal Zero-Inflated Tweedie Graph Neural Network STZITDGNN -- the first uncertainty-aware probabilistic graph deep learning model in roadlevel traffic accident prediction for multisteps. This model integrates the interpretability of the statistical Tweedie family model and the expressive power of graph neural networks. Its decoder innovatively employs a compound Tweedie model,a Poisson distribution to model the frequency of accident occurrences and a Gamma distribution to assess injury severity, supplemented by a zeroinflated component to effectively identify exessive nonincident instances. Empirical tests using realworld traffic data from London, UK, demonstrate that the STZITDGNN surpasses other baseline models across multiple benchmarks and metrics, including accident risk value prediction, uncertainty minimisation, non-accident road identification and accident occurrence accuracy. Our study demonstrates that STZTIDGNN can effectively inform targeted road monitoring, thereby improving urban road safety strategies.

Traffic data serves as a fundamental component in both research and applications within intelligent transportation systems. However, real-world transportation data, collected from loop detectors or similar sources, often contains missing values (MVs), which can adversely impact associated applications and research. Instead of discarding this incomplete data, researchers have sought to recover these missing values through numerical statistics, tensor decomposition, and deep learning techniques. In this paper, we propose an innovative deep learning approach for imputing missing data. A graph attention architecture is employed to capture the spatial correlations present in traffic data, while a bidirectional neural network is utilized to learn temporal information. Experimental results indicate that our proposed method outperforms all other benchmark techniques, thus demonstrating its effectiveness., Comment: Accepted by IEEE-ITSC 2023

Short-term demand forecasting for on-demand ride-hailing services is one of the fundamental issues in intelligent transportation systems. However, previous travel demand forecasting research predominantly focused on improving prediction accuracy, ignoring fairness issues such as systematic underestimations of travel demand in disadvantaged neighborhoods. This study investigates how to measure, evaluate, and enhance prediction fairness between disadvantaged and privileged communities in spatial-temporal demand forecasting of ride-hailing services. A two-pronged approach is taken to reduce the demand prediction bias. First, we develop a novel deep learning model architecture, named socially aware neural network (SA-Net), to integrate the socio-demographics and ridership information for fair demand prediction through an innovative socially-aware convolution operation. Second, we propose a bias-mitigation regularization method to mitigate the mean percentage prediction error gap between different groups. The experimental results, validated on the real-world Chicago Transportation Network Company (TNC) data, show that the de-biasing SA-Net can achieve better predictive performance in both prediction accuracy and fairness. Specifically, the SA-Net improves prediction accuracy for both the disadvantaged and privileged groups compared with the state-of-the-art models. When coupled with the bias mitigation regularization method, the de-biasing SA-Net effectively bridges the mean percentage prediction error gap between the disadvantaged and privileged groups, and also protects the disadvantaged regions against systematic underestimation of TNC demand. Our proposed de-biasing method can be adopted in many existing short-term travel demand estimation models, and can be utilized for various other spatial-temporal prediction tasks such as crime incidents predictions.

Classical demand modeling analyzes travel behavior using only low-dimensional numeric data (i.e. sociodemographics and travel attributes) but not high-dimensional urban imagery. However, travel behavior depends on the factors represented by both numeric data and urban imagery, thus necessitating a synergetic framework to combine them. This study creates a theoretical framework of deep hybrid models with a crossing structure consisting of a mixing operator and a behavioral predictor, thus integrating the numeric and imagery data into a latent space. Empirically, this framework is applied to analyze travel mode choice using the MyDailyTravel Survey from Chicago as the numeric inputs and the satellite images as the imagery inputs. We found that deep hybrid models outperform both the traditional demand models and the recent deep learning in predicting the aggregate and disaggregate travel behavior with our supervision-as-mixing design. The latent space in deep hybrid models can be interpreted, because it reveals meaningful spatial and social patterns. The deep hybrid models can also generate new urban images that do not exist in reality and interpret them with economic theory, such as computing substitution patterns and social welfare changes. Overall, the deep hybrid models demonstrate the complementarity between the low-dimensional numeric and high-dimensional imagery data and between the traditional demand modeling and recent deep learning. It generalizes the latent classes and variables in classical hybrid demand models to a latent space, and leverages the computational power of deep learning for imagery while retaining the economic interpretability on the microeconomics foundation.

Recent studies have significantly improved the prediction accuracy of travel demand using graph neural networks. However, these studies largely ignored uncertainty that inevitably exists in travel demand prediction. To fill this gap, this study proposes a framework of probabilistic graph neural networks (Prob-GNN) to quantify the spatiotemporal uncertainty of travel demand. This Prob-GNN framework is substantiated by deterministic and probabilistic assumptions, and empirically applied to the task of predicting the transit and ridesharing demand in Chicago. We found that the probabilistic assumptions (e.g. distribution tail, support) have a greater impact on uncertainty prediction than the deterministic ones (e.g. deep modules, depth). Among the family of Prob-GNNs, the GNNs with truncated Gaussian and Laplace distributions achieve the highest performance in transit and ridesharing data. Even under significant domain shifts, Prob-GNNs can predict the ridership uncertainty in a stable manner, when the models are trained on pre-COVID data and tested across multiple periods during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Prob-GNNs also reveal the spatiotemporal pattern of uncertainty, which is concentrated on the afternoon peak hours and the areas with large travel volumes. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of incorporating randomness into deep learning for spatiotemporal ridership prediction. Future research should continue to investigate versatile probabilistic assumptions to capture behavioral randomness, and further develop methods to quantify uncertainty to build resilient cities.

Origin-Destination (O-D) travel demand prediction is a fundamental challenge in transportation. Recently, spatial-temporal deep learning models demonstrate the tremendous potential to enhance prediction accuracy. However, few studies tackled the uncertainty and sparsity issues in fine-grained O-D matrices. This presents a serious problem, because a vast number of zeros deviate from the Gaussian assumption underlying the deterministic deep learning models. To address this issue, we design a Spatial-Temporal Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Graph Neural Network (STZINB-GNN) to quantify the uncertainty of the sparse travel demand. It analyzes spatial and temporal correlations using diffusion and temporal convolution networks, which are then fused to parameterize the probabilistic distributions of travel demand. The STZINB-GNN is examined using two real-world datasets with various spatial and temporal resolutions. The results demonstrate the superiority of STZINB-GNN over benchmark models, especially under high spatial-temporal resolutions, because of its high accuracy, tight confidence intervals, and interpretable parameters. The sparsity parameter of the STZINB-GNN has physical interpretation for various transportation applications., Comment: Accepted by KDD 2022

Public transit systems are the backbone of urban mobility systems in the era of urbanization. The design of transit schedules is important for the efficient and sustainable operation of public transit. However, previous studies usually assume fixed demand patterns and ignore uncertainties in demand, which may generate transit schedules that are vulnerable to demand variations. To address demand uncertainty issues inherent in public transit systems, this paper adopts both stochastic programming (SP) and robust optimization (RO) techniques to generate robust transit schedules against demand uncertainty. A nominal (non-robust) optimization model for the transit frequency setting problem (TFSP) under a single transit line setting is first proposed. The model is then extended to SP-based and RO-based formulations to incorporate demand uncertainty. The large-scale origin-destination (OD) matrices for real-world transit problems make the optimization problems hard to solve. To efficiently generate robust transit schedules, a Transit Downsizing (TD) approach is proposed to reduce the dimensionality of the problem. We prove that the optimal objective function of the problem after TD is close to that of the original problem (i.e., the difference is bounded from above). The proposed models are tested with real-world transit lines and data from the Chicago Transit Authority (CTA). Compared to the current transit schedule implemented by CTA, the nominal TFSP model without considering demand uncertainty reduces passengers' wait times while increasing in-vehicle travel times. After incorporating demand uncertainty, both stochastic and robust TFSP models reduce passengers' wait times and in-vehicle travel times simultaneously. The robust TFSP model produces transit schedules with better in-vehicle travel times and worse wait times for passengers compared to the stochastic TFSP model., Comment: 35 pages, 22 figures

Although researchers increasingly adopt machine learning to model travel behavior, they predominantly focus on prediction accuracy, ignoring the ethical challenges embedded in machine learning algorithms. This study introduces an important missing dimension - computational fairness - to travel behavior analysis. We first operationalize computational fairness by equality of opportunity, then differentiate between the bias inherent in data and the bias introduced by modeling. We then demonstrate the prediction disparities in travel behavior modeling using the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and the 2018-2019 My Daily Travel Survey in Chicago. Empirically, deep neural network (DNN) and discrete choice models (DCM) reveal consistent prediction disparities across multiple social groups: both over-predict the false negative rate of frequent driving for the ethnic minorities, the low-income and the disabled populations, and falsely predict a higher travel burden of the socially disadvantaged groups and the rural populations than reality. Comparing DNN with DCM, we find that DNN can outperform DCM in prediction disparities because of DNN's smaller misspecification error. To mitigate prediction disparities, this study introduces an absolute correlation regularization method, which is evaluated with synthetic and real-world data. The results demonstrate the prevalence of prediction disparities in travel behavior modeling, and the disparities still persist regarding a variety of model specifics such as the number of DNN layers, batch size and weight initialization. Since these prediction disparities can exacerbate social inequity if prediction results without fairness adjustment are used for transportation policy making, we advocate for careful consideration of the fairness problem in travel behavior modeling, and the use of bias mitigation algorithms for fair transport decisions.

Estimating health benefits of reducing fossil fuel use from improved air quality provides important rationales for carbon emissions abatement. Simulating pollution concentration is a crucial step of the estimation, but traditional approaches often rely on complicated chemical transport models that require extensive expertise and computational resources. In this study, we develop a novel and succinct machine learning framework that is able to provide precise and robust annual average fine particle (PM2.5) concentration estimations directly from a high-resolution fossil energy use data set. The accessibility and applicability of this framework show great potentials of machine learning approaches for integrated assessment studies. Applications of the framework with Chinese data reveal highly heterogeneous health benefits of reducing fossil fuel use in different sectors and regions in China with a mean of \$34/tCO2 and a standard deviation of \$84/tCO2. Reducing rural and residential coal use offers the highest co-benefits with a mean of \$360/tCO2. Our findings prompt careful policy designs to maximize cost-effectiveness in the transition towards a carbon-neutral energy system.

Researchers have compared machine learning (ML) classifiers and discrete choice models (DCMs) in predicting travel behavior, but the generalizability of the findings is limited by the specifics of data, contexts, and authors' expertise. This study seeks to provide a generalizable empirical benchmark by comparing hundreds of ML and DCM classifiers in a highly structured manner. The experiments evaluate both prediction accuracy and computational cost by spanning four hyper-dimensions, including 105 ML and DCM classifiers from 12 model families, 3 datasets, 3 sample sizes, and 3 outputs. This experimental design leads to an immense number of 6,970 experiments, which are corroborated with a meta dataset of 136 experiment points from 35 previous studies. This study is hitherto the most comprehensive and almost exhaustive comparison of the classifiers for travel behavioral prediction. We found that the ensemble methods and deep neural networks achieve the highest predictive performance, but at a relatively high computational cost. Random forests are the most computationally efficient, balancing between prediction and computation. While discrete choice models offer accuracy with only 3-4 percentage points lower than the top ML classifiers, they have much longer computational time and become computationally impossible with large sample size, high input dimensions, or simulation-based estimation. The relative ranking of the ML and DCM classifiers is highly stable, while the absolute values of the prediction accuracy and computational time have large variations. Overall, this paper suggests using deep neural networks, model ensembles, and random forests as baseline models for future travel behavior prediction. For choice modeling, the DCM community should switch more attention from fitting models to improving computational efficiency, so that the DCMs can be widely adopted in the big data context.

Researchers often treat data-driven and theory-driven models as two disparate or even conflicting methods in travel behavior analysis. However, the two methods are highly complementary because data-driven methods are more predictive but less interpretable and robust, while theory-driven methods are more interpretable and robust but less predictive. Using their complementary nature, this study designs a theory-based residual neural network (TB-ResNet) framework, which synergizes discrete choice models (DCMs) and deep neural networks (DNNs) based on their shared utility interpretation. The TB-ResNet framework is simple, as it uses a ($\delta$, 1-$\delta$) weighting to take advantage of DCMs' simplicity and DNNs' richness, and to prevent underfitting from the DCMs and overfitting from the DNNs. This framework is also flexible: three instances of TB-ResNets are designed based on multinomial logit model (MNL-ResNets), prospect theory (PT-ResNets), and hyperbolic discounting (HD-ResNets), which are tested on three data sets. Compared to pure DCMs, the TB-ResNets provide greater prediction accuracy and reveal a richer set of behavioral mechanisms owing to the utility function augmented by the DNN component in the TB-ResNets. Compared to pure DNNs, the TB-ResNets can modestly improve prediction and significantly improve interpretation and robustness, because the DCM component in the TB-ResNets stabilizes the utility functions and input gradients. Overall, this study demonstrates that it is both feasible and desirable to synergize DCMs and DNNs by combining their utility specifications under a TB-ResNet framework. Although some limitations remain, this TB-ResNet framework is an important first step to create mutual benefits between DCMs and DNNs for travel behavior modeling, with joint improvement in prediction, interpretation, and robustness.

Whereas deep neural network (DNN) is increasingly applied to choice analysis, it is challenging to reconcile domain-specific behavioral knowledge with generic-purpose DNN, to improve DNN's interpretability and predictive power, and to identify effective regularization methods for specific tasks. This study designs a particular DNN architecture with alternative-specific utility functions (ASU-DNN) by using prior behavioral knowledge. Unlike a fully connected DNN (F-DNN), which computes the utility value of an alternative k by using the attributes of all the alternatives, ASU-DNN computes it by using only k's own attributes. Theoretically, ASU-DNN can dramatically reduce the estimation error of F-DNN because of its lighter architecture and sparser connectivity. Empirically, ASU-DNN has 2-3% higher prediction accuracy than F-DNN over the whole hyperparameter space in a private dataset that we collected in Singapore and a public dataset in R mlogit package. The alternative-specific connectivity constraint, as a domain-knowledge-based regularization method, is more effective than the most popular generic-purpose explicit and implicit regularization methods and architectural hyperparameters. ASU-DNN is also more interpretable because it provides a more regular substitution pattern of travel mode choices than F-DNN does. The comparison between ASU-DNN and F-DNN can also aid in testing the behavioral knowledge. Our results reveal that individuals are more likely to compute utility by using an alternative's own attributes, supporting the long-standing practice in choice modeling. Overall, this study demonstrates that prior behavioral knowledge could be used to guide the architecture design of DNN, to function as an effective domain-knowledge-based regularization method, and to improve both the interpretability and predictive power of DNN in choice analysis.

It is an enduring question how to combine revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) data to analyze travel behavior. This study presents a framework of multitask learning deep neural networks (MTLDNNs) for this question, and demonstrates that MTLDNNs are more generic than the traditional nested logit (NL) method, due to its capacity of automatic feature learning and soft constraints. About 1,500 MTLDNN models are designed and applied to the survey data that was collected in Singapore and focused on the RP of four current travel modes and the SP with autonomous vehicles (AV) as the one new travel mode in addition to those in RP. We found that MTLDNNs consistently outperform six benchmark models and particularly the classical NL models by about 5% prediction accuracy in both RP and SP datasets. This performance improvement can be mainly attributed to the soft constraints specific to MTLDNNs, including its innovative architectural design and regularization methods, but not much to the generic capacity of automatic feature learning endowed by a standard feedforward DNN architecture. Besides prediction, MTLDNNs are also interpretable. The empirical results show that AV is mainly the substitute of driving and AV alternative-specific variables are more important than the socio-economic variables in determining AV adoption. Overall, this study introduces a new MTLDNN framework to combine RP and SP, and demonstrates its theoretical flexibility and empirical power for prediction and interpretation. Future studies can design new MTLDNN architectures to reflect the speciality of RP and SP and extend this work to other behavioral analysis.

While deep neural networks (DNNs) have been increasingly applied to choice analysis showing high predictive power, it is unclear to what extent researchers can interpret economic information from DNNs. This paper demonstrates that DNNs can provide economic information as complete as classical discrete choice models (DCMs). The economic information includes choice predictions, choice probabilities, market shares, substitution patterns of alternatives, social welfare, probability derivatives, elasticities, marginal rates of substitution (MRS), and heterogeneous values of time (VOT). Unlike DCMs, DNNs can automatically learn the utility function and reveal behavioral patterns that are not prespecified by domain experts. However, the economic information obtained from DNNs can be unreliable because of the three challenges associated with the automatic learning capacity: high sensitivity to hyperparameters, model non-identification, and local irregularity. To demonstrate the strength and challenges of DNNs, we estimated the DNNs using a stated preference survey, extracted the full list of economic information from the DNNs, and compared them with those from the DCMs. We found that the economic information either aggregated over trainings or population is more reliable than the disaggregate information of the individual observations or trainings, and that even simple hyperparameter searching can significantly improve the reliability of the economic information extracted from the DNNs. Future studies should investigate other regularizations and DNN architectures, better optimization algorithms, and robust DNN training methods to address DNNs' three challenges, to provide more reliable economic information from DNN-based choice models.

While researchers increasingly use deep neural networks (DNN) to analyze individual choices, overfitting and interpretability issues remain as obstacles in theory and practice. By using statistical learning theory, this study presents a framework to examine the tradeoff between estimation and approximation errors, and between prediction and interpretation losses. It operationalizes the DNN interpretability in the choice analysis by formulating the metrics of interpretation loss as the difference between true and estimated choice probability functions. This study also uses the statistical learning theory to upper bound the estimation error of both prediction and interpretation losses in DNN, shedding light on why DNN does not have the overfitting issue. Three scenarios are then simulated to compare DNN to binary logit model (BNL). We found that DNN outperforms BNL in terms of both prediction and interpretation for most of the scenarios, and larger sample size unleashes the predictive power of DNN but not BNL. DNN is also used to analyze the choice of trip purposes and travel modes based on the National Household Travel Survey 2017 (NHTS2017) dataset. These experiments indicate that DNN can be used for choice analysis beyond the current practice of demand forecasting because it has the inherent utility interpretation, the flexibility of accommodating various information formats, and the power of automatically learning utility specification. DNN is both more predictive and interpretable than BNL unless the modelers have complete knowledge about the choice task, and the sample size is small. Overall, statistical learning theory can be a foundation for future studies in the non-asymptotic data regime or using high-dimensional statistical models in choice analysis, and the experiments show the feasibility and effectiveness of DNN for its wide applications to policy and behavioral analysis.