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Importance: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to 775 million documented cases and over 7 million deaths worldwide as of March 2024 and is an ongoing health crisis. To limit viral spread within households and in the community, public health officials have recommended self-isolation, self-quarantine of exposed household contacts, and mask use. Yet, risk of household transmission (HHT) may be underestimated due to low frequency of sampling, and risk factors for HHT are not well understood. Objectives: To estimate the secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 within households and to define the risk factors for new infections in household members who are in close contact with the index case. Design, setting, and participants: In this prospective cohort study, from March 2020—December 2021 we enrolled 60 households with index cases who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. All household contacts and index cases were tested daily for SARS-CoV-2 via reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) using self-collected anterior nares specimens. Households were followed until all study participants in the household tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 for seven consecutive days. We collected sex, age, race/ethnicity, comorbidities, and relationship to index case for secondary contacts, household level characteristics including primary income, household density, and square feet per person on property. We compared the sociodemographic variables between COVID-19 positive and negative household members and between households where secondary transmission did and did not occur. Main outcomes and measures: Daily anterior nares swabs were tested for SARS-CoV-2 using RT-PCR, in order to assess duration of nasal shedding of SARS-CoV-2, as well as risk of transmission to secondary household contacts. Results: Of the 163 participants in this study, 84 (51.5%) were women; median age (IQR) was 36.0 (17.0–54.0) years of age; 78 (47.8%) were white and 48 (29.5%) were Hispanic/LatinX. Of the fifty households with household contacts, at least one secondary case occurred in twenty-six households (52.0%) and forty-five household contacts (43.7%) were infected. Secondary attack rate was lowest among children of index cases (6/23, 26.1%). Modified Poisson regression identified that the risk of transmission to household contacts increases significantly with age (Risk ratio for each increase in years of age = 1.01, 95% CI = 1.00–1.02). Mixed effects regression models identified that participants with chronic diseases, such as asthma, diabetes, cancer, or cardiac disease, had higher Cts at baseline when compared to participants without chronic diseases (6.62, 95% CI: 1.46–11.77, p = 0.02) and show a slower rate of increase in Ct over time (-0.43, 95% CI: -0.77 to -0.09, p = 0.02) Conclusions and relevance: This study suggests that HHT represents a key source of community-based infection of SARS-CoV-2. Allocation of resources for contact investigations and prevention interventions should focus on the individuals at highest risk of infection in households, especially those with higher density homes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is likely to profoundly modulate the burden of infectious diseases. However, attributing health impacts to a changing climate requires being able to associate changes in infectious disease incidence with the potentially complex influences of climate. This aim is further complicated by nonlinear feedbacks inherent in the dynamics of many infections, driven by the processes of immunity and transmission. Here, we detail the mechanisms by which climate drivers can shape infectious disease incidence, from direct effects on vector life history to indirect effects on human susceptibility, and detail the scope of variation available with which to probe these mechanisms. We review approaches used to evaluate and quantify associations between climate and infectious disease incidence, discuss the array of data available to tackle this question, and detail remaining challenges in understanding the implications of climate change for infectious disease incidence. We point to areas where synthesis between approaches used in climate science and infectious disease biology provide potential for progress.

The global expansion and local spread of tuberculosis (TB) have been shaped by patterns of human migration (2-4). The 258 million international migrants who live outside their country of birth [...]

Background Mortality during and after incarceration is poorly understood in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The need to address this knowledge gap is especially urgent in South America, which has the fastest growing prison population in the world. In Brazil, insufficient data have precluded our understanding of all-cause and cause-specific mortality during and after incarceration. Methods and findings We linked incarceration and mortality databases for the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso do Sul to obtain a retrospective cohort of 114,751 individuals with recent incarceration. Between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2018, we identified 3,127 deaths of individuals with recent incarceration (705 in detention and 2,422 following release). We analyzed age-standardized, all-cause, and cause-specific mortality rates among individuals detained in different facility types and following release, compared to non-incarcerated residents. We additionally modeled mortality rates over time during and after incarceration for all causes of death, violence, or suicide. Deaths in custody were 2.2 times the number reported by the national prison administration (n = 317). Incarcerated men and boys experienced elevated mortality, compared with the non-incarcerated population, due to increased risk of death from violence, suicide, and communicable diseases, with the highest standardized incidence rate ratio (IRR) in semi-open prisons (2.4; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.0 to 2.8), police stations (3.1; 95% CI: 2.5 to 3.9), and youth detention (8.1; 95% CI: 5.9 to 10.8). Incarcerated women experienced increased mortality from suicide (IRR = 6.0, 95% CI: 1.2 to 17.7) and communicable diseases (IRR = 2.5, 95% CI: 1.1 to 5.0). Following release from prison, mortality was markedly elevated for men (IRR = 3.0; 95% CI: 2.8 to 3.1) and women (IRR = 2.4; 95% CI: 2.1 to 2.9). The risk of violent death and suicide was highest immediately post-release and declined over time; however, all-cause mortality remained elevated 8 years post-release. The limitations of this study include inability to establish causality, uncertain reliability of data during incarceration, and underestimation of mortality rates due to imperfect database linkage. Conclusions Incarcerated individuals in Brazil experienced increased mortality from violence, suicide, and communicable diseases. Mortality was heightened following release for all leading causes of death, with particularly high risk of early violent death and elevated all-cause mortality up to 8 years post-release. These disparities may have been underrecognized in Brazil due to underreporting and insufficient data., Author(s): Yiran E. Liu 1,2, Everton Ferreira Lemos 3, Crhistinne Cavalheiro Maymone Gonçalves 3, Roberto Dias de Oliveira 4, Andrea da Silva Santos 5, Agne Oliveira do Prado Morais 3, [...]

Background It has been hypothesized that prisons serve as amplifiers of general tuberculosis (TB) epidemics, but there is a paucity of data on this phenomenon and the potential population-level effects of prison-focused interventions. This study (1) quantifies the TB risk for prisoners as they traverse incarceration and release, (2) mathematically models the impact of prison-based interventions on TB burden in the general population, and (3) generalizes this model to a wide range of epidemiological contexts. Methods and findings We obtained individual-level incarceration data for all inmates (n = 42,925) and all reported TB cases (n = 5,643) in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso do Sul from 2007 through 2013. We matched individuals between prisoner and TB databases and estimated the incidence of TB from the time of incarceration and the time of prison release using Cox proportional hazards models. We identified 130 new TB cases diagnosed during incarceration and 170 among individuals released from prison. During imprisonment, TB rates increased from 111 cases per 100,000 person-years at entry to a maximum of 1,303 per 100,000 person-years at 5.2 years. At release, TB incidence was 229 per 100,000 person-years, which declined to 42 per 100,000 person-years (the average TB incidence in Brazil) after 7 years. We used these data to populate a compartmental model of TB transmission and incarceration to evaluate the effects of various prison-based interventions on the incidence of TB among prisoners and the general population. Annual mass TB screening within Brazilian prisons would reduce TB incidence in prisons by 47.4% (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI], 44.4%-52.5%) and in the general population by 19.4% (95% BCI 17.9%-24.2%). A generalized model demonstrates that prison-based interventions would have maximum effectiveness in reducing community incidence in populations with a high concentration of TB in prisons and greater degrees of mixing between ex-prisoners and community members. Study limitations include our focus on a single Brazilian state and our retrospective use of administrative databases. Conclusions Our findings suggest that the prison environment, more so than the prison population itself, drives TB incidence, and targeted interventions within prisons could have a substantial effect on the broader TB epidemic., Author(s): Tarub S. Mabud 1, Maria de Lourdes Delgado Alves 2, Albert I. Ko 3, Sanjay Basu 1, Katharine S. Walter 1, Ted Cohen 3, Barun Mathema 4, Caroline Colijn [...]

We developed a simple, noninvasive mask sampling method to quantify and sequence severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from exhaled breath. We found substantial variation between individuals in SARS-CoV-2 copies exhaled over a 15-minute period, which moderately correlated with nasal swab viral load. Talking was associated with a median of 2 log10 greater exhaled viral copies. Exposure varies substantially between individuals but may be risk stratified by nasal swab viral load and whether the exposure involved conversation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]