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BackgroundWhile comorbidity of clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) status and social anxiety is well-established, it remains unclear how social anxiety and positive symptoms covary over time in this population. The present study aimed to determine whether there are more than one covariant trajectory of social anxiety and positive symptoms in the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study cohort (NAPLS 2) and, if so, to test whether the different trajectory subgroups differ in terms of genetic and environmental risk factors for psychotic disorders and general functional outcome.MethodsIn total, 764 CHR individuals were evaluated at baseline for social anxiety and psychosis risk symptom severity and followed up every 6 months for 2 years. Application of group-based multi-trajectory modeling discerned three subgroups based on the covariant trajectories of social anxiety and positive symptoms over 2 years.ResultsOne of the subgroups showed sustained social anxiety over time despite moderate recovery in positive symptoms, while the other two showed recovery of social anxiety below clinically significant thresholds, along with modest to moderate recovery in positive symptom severity. The trajectory group with sustained social anxiety had poorer long-term global functional outcomes than the other trajectory groups. In addition, compared with the other two trajectory groups, membership in the group with sustained social anxiety was predicted by higher levels of polygenic risk for schizophrenia and environmental stress exposures.ConclusionsTogether, these analyses indicate differential relevance of sustained v. remitting social anxiety symptoms in the CHR-P population, which in turn may carry implications for differential intervention strategies.

Progressive grey matter loss has been demonstrated among clinical high-risk (CHR) individuals who convert to psychosis, but it is unknown whether these changes occur prior to psychosis onset. Identifying illness-related neurobiological mechanisms that occur prior to conversion is essential for targeted early intervention. Among participants in the third wave of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS3), this report investigated if steeper cortical thinning was observable prior to psychosis onset among CHR individuals who ultimately converted (CHR-C) and assessed the shortest possible time interval in which rates of cortical thinning differ between CHR-C, CHR non-converters (CHR-NC), and health controls (HC). 338 CHR-NC, 42 CHR-C, and 62 HC participants (age 19.3±4.2, 44.8% female, 52.5% racial/ethnic minority) completed up to 5 MRI scans across 8 months. Accelerated thinning among CHR-C compared to CHR-NC and HC was observed in multiple prefrontal, temporal, and parietal cortical regions. CHR-NC also exhibited accelerated cortical thinning compared to HC in several of these areas. Greater percent decrease in cortical thickness was observed among CHR-C compared to other groups across 2.9±1.8 months, on average, in several cortical areas. ROC analyses discriminating CHR-C from CHR-NC by percent thickness change in a left hemisphere region of interest, scanner, age, age2, and sex had an AUC of 0.74, with model predictive power driven primarily by percent thickness change. Findings indicate that accelerated cortical thinning precedes psychosis onset and differentiates CHR-C from CHR-NC and HC across short time intervals. Mechanisms underlying cortical thinning may provide novel treatment targets prior to psychosis onset.

Background and hypothesisNegative symptom trajectory in clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis is ill defined. This study aimed to better characterize longitudinal patterns of change in negative symptoms, moderators of change, and differences in trajectories according to clinical subgroups. We hypothesized that negative symptom course will be nonlinear in CHR. Clinical subgroups known to be more severe variants of psychotic illness-deficit syndrome (DS), persistent negative syndrome (PNS), and acute psychosis onset-were expected to show more severe baseline symptoms, slower rates of change, and less stable rates of symptom resolution.Study designLinear, curvilinear, and stepwise growth curve models, with and without moderators, were fitted to negative symptom ratings from the NAPLS-3 CHR dataset (N = 699) and within clinical subgroups.Study resultsNegative symptoms followed a downward curvilinear trend, with marked improvement 0-6 months that subsequently stabilized (6-24 months), particularly among those with lower IQ and functioning. Clinical subgroups had higher baseline ratings, but distinct symptom courses; DS vs non-DS: more rapid initial improvement, similar stability of improvements; PNS vs non-PNS: similar rates of initial improvement and stability; transition vs no transition: slower rate of initial improvement, with greater stability of this rate.ConclusionsContinuous, frequent monitoring of negative symptoms in CHR is justified by 2 important study implications: (1) The initial 6 months of CHR program enrollment may be a key window for improving negative symptoms as less improvement is likely afterwards, (2) Early identification of clinical subgroups may inform distinct negative symptom trajectories and treatment needs.

IntroductionPersistent negative symptoms (PNS) are described as continuing moderate negative symptoms. More severe negative symptoms have been associated with poor premorbid functioning in both chronic schizophrenia and first episode psychosis patients. Furthermore, youth at clinical high risk (CHR) for developing psychosis may also present with negative symptoms and poor premorbid functioning. The aim of this current study was to: (1) define the relationship between PNS and premorbid functioning, life events, trauma and bullying, previous cannabis use, and resource utilization, and (2) to examine what explanatory variables best predicted PNS.MethodCHR participants (N = 709) were recruited from the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS 2). Participants were divided into two groups: those with PNS (n = 67) versus those without PNS (n = 673). A K-means cluster analysis was conducted to distinguish patterns of premorbid functioning across the different developmental stages. The relationships between premorbid adjustment and other variables were examined using independent samples t-tests or chi square for categorical variables.ResultsThere was significantly more males in the PNS group. Participants with PNS had significantly lower levels of premorbid adjustment in childhood, early adolescence, and late adolescence, compared to CHR participants without PNS. There were no differences between the groups in terms of trauma, bullying, and resource utilization. The non-PNS group had more cannabis use and more desirable and non-desirable life events.ConclusionIn terms of better understanding relationships between early factors and PNS, a prominent factor associated with PNS was premorbid functioning, in particular poor premorbid functioning in later adolescence.

BackgroundElevated rates of alcohol, tobacco, and cannabis use are observed in both patients with psychotic disorders and individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P), and strong genetic associations exist between substance use disorders and schizophrenia. While individuals with 22q11.2 deletion syndrome (22qDel) are at increased genetic risk for psychosis, initial evidence suggests that they have strikingly low rates of substance use. In the current study, we aimed to directly compare substance use patterns and their neurobehavioral correlates in genetic and clinical high-risk cohorts.MethodsData on substance use frequency and severity, clinical symptoms, and neurobehavioral measures were collected at baseline and at 12-month follow-up visits in two prospective longitudinal cohorts: participants included 89 22qDel carriers and 65 age and sex-matched typically developing (TD) controls (40.67% male, Mage = 19.26 ± 7.84 years) and 1,288 CHR-P youth and 371 matched TD controls from the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study-2 and 3 (55.74% male; Mage = 18.71 ± 4.27 years). Data were analyzed both cross-sectionally and longitudinally using linear mixed effects models.ResultsControlling for age, sex, and site, CHR-P individuals had significantly elevated rates of tobacco, alcohol, and cannabis use relative to TD controls, whereas 22qDel had significantly lower rates. Increased substance use in CHR-P individuals was associated with increased psychosis symptom severity, dysphoric mood, social functioning, and IQ, while higher social anhedonia was associated with lower substance use across all domains at baseline. These patterns persisted when we investigated these relationships longitudinally over one-year. CHR-P youth exhibited significantly increased positive psychosis symptoms, dysphoric mood, social functioning, social anhedonia, and IQ compared to 22qDel carriers, and lower rates of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) compared to 22qDel carriers, both at baseline and at 1 year follow-up.ConclusionIndividuals at genetic and CHR-P have strikingly different patterns of substance use. Factors such as increased neurodevelopmental symptoms (lower IQ, higher rates of ASD) and poorer social functioning in 22qDel may help explain this distinction from substance use patterns observed in CHR-P individuals.

Reductions in hippocampal volume (HV) have been associated with both prolonged exposure to stress and psychotic illness. This study sought to determine whether higher levels of neighborhood poverty would be associated with reduced HV among individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P), and whether social engagement would moderate this association. This cross-sectional study included a sample of participants (N  =  174, age-range = 12-33 years, 35.1% female) recruited for the second phase of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study. Generalized linear mixed models tested the association between neighborhood poverty and bilateral HV, as well as the moderating role of social engagement on this association. Higher levels of neighborhood poverty were associated with reduced left (β  =  -0.180, P  =  .016) and right HV (β  =  -0.185, P  =  .016). Social engagement significantly moderated the relation between neighborhood poverty and bilateral HV. In participants with lower levels of social engagement (n  =  77), neighborhood poverty was associated with reduced left (β  =  -0.266, P  =  .006) and right HV (β = -0.316, P  = .002). Among participants with higher levels of social engagement (n = 97), neighborhood poverty was not significantly associated with left (β  =  -0.010, P  =  .932) or right HV (β  =  0.087, P  =  .473). In this study, social engagement moderated the inverse relation between neighborhood poverty and HV. These findings demonstrate the importance of including broader environmental influences and indices of social engagement when conceptualizing adversity and potential interventions for individuals at CHR-P.

The North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS) is a consortium of nine programs focusing on youth at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis. Funded by the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH), the sites are located at Emory University, Harvard University, University of Calgary, University of California at Los Angeles, at San Diego, and at San Francisco, University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, Yale University, and Zucker Hillside Hospital. There have been two previous endeavors completed by this consortium, known as NAPLS-1 and NAPLS-2. This paper first offers an overview of the methodology of the third phase of the NAPLS consortium, the second five-year prospective study NAPLS-3, which aims to determine mechanisms of the development of psychosis. In addition, we report on the ascertainment and demographics of the 710 CHR participants in NAPLS-3.

IntroductionArea-level residential instability (ARI), an index of social fragmentation, has been shown to explain the association between urbanicity and psychosis. Urban upbringing has been shown to be associated with reduced gray matter volumes (GMV)s of brain regions corresponding to the right caudal middle frontal gyrus (CMFG) and rostral anterior cingulate cortex (rACC). We hypothesize that greater ARI will be associated with reduced right CMFG and rACC GMVs.MethodsData were collected at baseline as part of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study Phase 2. Counties where participants resided during childhood were geographically coded using the US Census to area-level factors. ARI was defined as the percentage of residents living in a different house 5 years ago. Generalized linear mixed models tested associations between ARI and GMVs.ResultsThis study included 29 healthy controls (HC)s and 64 clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) individuals who were aged 12 to 24 years, had remained in their baseline residential area, and had magnetic resonance imaging scans. ARI was associated with reduced right CMFG (adjusted β = -0.258; 95% CI = -0.502 to -0.015) and right rACC volumes (adjusted β = -0.318; 95% CI = -0.612 to -0.023). The interaction term (ARI-by-diagnostic group) in the prediction of both brain regions was not significant, indicating that the relationships between ARI and regional brain volumes held for both CHR-P and HCs.ConclusionsARI may adversely impact similar brain regions as urban upbringing. Further investigation into the potential mechanisms of the relationship between ARI and neurobiology, including social stress, is needed.

The clinical high-risk period before a first episode of psychosis (CHR-P) has been widely studied with the goal of understanding the development of psychosis; however, less attention has been paid to the 75%-80% of CHR-P individuals who do not transition to psychosis. It is an open question whether multivariable models could be developed to predict remission outcomes at the same level of performance and generalizability as those that predict conversion to psychosis. Participants were drawn from the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS3). An empirically derived set of clinical and demographic predictor variables were selected with elastic net regularization and were included in a gradient boosting machine algorithm to predict prodromal symptom remission. The predictive model was tested in a comparably sized independent sample (NAPLS2). The classification algorithm developed in NAPLS3 achieved an area under the curve of 0.66 (0.60-0.72) with a sensitivity of 0.68 and specificity of 0.53 when tested in an independent external sample (NAPLS2). Overall, future remitters had lower baseline prodromal symptoms than nonremitters. This study is the first to use a data-driven machine-learning approach to assess clinical and demographic predictors of symptomatic remission in individuals who do not convert to psychosis. The predictive power of the models in this study suggest that remission represents a unique clinical phenomenon. Further study is warranted to best understand factors contributing to resilience and recovery from the CHR-P state.

BackgroundA decline in cortical thickness during early life appears to be a normal neuromaturational process. Accelerated cortical thinning has been linked with conversion to psychosis among individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P). Previous research indicates that exposure to life event stress (LES) is associated with exaggerated cortical thinning in both healthy and clinical populations, and LES is also linked with conversion to psychosis in CHR-P. To date, there are no reports on the relationship of LES with cortical thickness in CHR-P. This study examines this relationship and whether LES is linked with cortical thinning to a greater degree in individuals at CHR-P who convert to psychosis compared with individuals at CHR-P who do not convert and healthy control subjects.MethodsControlling for age and gender (364 male, 262 female), this study examined associations between LES and baseline cortical thickness in 436 individuals at CHR-P (375 nonconverters and 61 converters) and 190 comparison subjects in the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study.ResultsFindings indicate that prebaseline cumulative LES is associated with reduced baseline cortical thickness in several regions among the CHR-P and control groups. Evidence suggests that LES is a risk factor for thinner cortex to the same extent across diagnostic groups, while CHR-P status is linked with thinner cortex in select regions after accounting for LES.ConclusionsThis research provides additional evidence to support the role of LES in cortical thinning in both healthy youth and those at CHR-P. Potential underlying mechanisms of the findings and implications for future research are discussed.

Prevention and early intervention programs have been initiated worldwide to serve youth at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P), who are adolescents and young adults experiencing subclinical psychosis and functional impairment. The primary goals of these efforts are to prevent or mitigate the onset of clinical psychosis, while also treating comorbid issues. It is important to consider issues of diversity, equity, and inclusion in CHR-P work, especially as these programs continue to proliferate around the world. Further, there is a long history in psychiatry of misdiagnosing and mistreating psychosis in individuals from racial and ethnic minority groups. Although there have been significant developments in early intervention psychosis work, there is evidence that marginalized groups are underserved by current CHR-P screening and intervention efforts. These issues are compounded by the contexts of continued social marginalization and significant mental health disparities in general child/adolescent services. Within this narrative review and call to action, we use an intersectional and minority stress lens to review and discuss current issues related to equity in CHR-P services, offer evidence-based recommendations, and propose next steps. In particular, our intersectional and minority stress lenses incorporate perspectives for a range of marginalized and underserved identities related to race, ethnicity, and culture; faith; immigration status; geography/residence; gender identity; sexual orientation; socioeconomic status/class; and ability status.

BackgroundTransition to psychosis is among the most adverse outcomes of clinical high-risk (CHR) syndromes encompassing ultra-high risk (UHR) and basic symptom states. Clinical risk calculators may facilitate an early and individualized interception of psychosis, but their real-world implementation requires thorough validation across diverse risk populations, including young patients with depressive syndromes.MethodsWe validated the previously described NAPLS-2 (North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study 2) calculator in 334 patients (26 with transition to psychosis) with CHR or recent-onset depression (ROD) drawn from the multisite European PRONIA (Personalised Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management) study. Patients were categorized into three risk enrichment levels, ranging from UHR, over CHR, to a broad-risk population comprising patients with CHR or ROD (CHR|ROD). We assessed how risk enrichment and different predictive algorithms influenced prognostic performance using reciprocal external validation.ResultsAfter calibration, the NAPLS-2 model predicted psychosis with a balanced accuracy (BAC) (sensitivity, specificity) of 68% (73%, 63%) in the PRONIA-UHR cohort, 67% (74%, 60%) in the CHR cohort, and 70% (73%, 66%) in patients with CHR|ROD. Multiple model derivation in PRONIA-CHR|ROD and validation in NAPLS-2-UHR patients confirmed that broader risk definitions produced more accurate risk calculators (CHR|ROD-based vs. UHR-based performance: 67% [68%, 66%] vs. 58% [61%, 56%]). Support vector machines were superior in CHR|ROD (BAC = 71%), while ridge logistic regression and support vector machines performed similarly in CHR (BAC = 67%) and UHR cohorts (BAC = 65%). Attenuated psychotic symptoms predicted psychosis across risk levels, while younger age and reduced processing speed became increasingly relevant for broader risk cohorts.ConclusionsClinical-neurocognitive machine learning models operating in young patients with affective and CHR syndromes facilitate a more precise and generalizable prediction of psychosis. Future studies should investigate their therapeutic utility in large-scale clinical trials.

BackgroundAdolescence/early adulthood coincides with accelerated pruning of cortical synapses and the onset of schizophrenia. Cortical gray matter reduction and dysconnectivity in schizophrenia are hypothesized to result from impaired synaptic plasticity mechanisms, including long-term potentiation (LTP), since deficient LTP may result in too many weak synapses that are then subject to over-pruning. Deficient plasticity has already been observed in schizophrenia. Here, we assessed whether such deficits are present in the psychosis risk syndrome (PRS), particularly those who subsequently convert to full psychosis.MethodsAn interim analysis was performed on a sub-sample from the NAPLS-3 study, including 46 healthy controls (HC) and 246 PRS participants. All participants performed an LTP-like visual cortical plasticity paradigm involving assessment of visual evoked potentials (VEPs) elicited by vertical and horizontal line gratings before and after high frequency ("tetanizing") visual stimulation with one of the gratings to induce "input-specific" neuroplasticity (i.e., VEP changes specific to the tetanized stimulus). Non-parametric, cluster-based permutation testing was used to identify electrodes and timepoints that demonstrated input-specific plasticity effects.ResultsInput-specific pre-post VEP changes (i.e., increased negative voltage) were found in a single spatio-temporal cluster covering multiple occipital electrodes in a 126-223 ms time window. This plasticity effect was deficient in PRS individuals who subsequently converted to psychosis, relative to PRS non-converters and HC.ConclusionsInput-specific LTP-like visual plasticity can be measured from VEPs in adolescents and young adults. Interim analyses suggest that deficient visual cortical plasticity is evident in those PRS individuals at greatest risk for transition to psychosis.

While functional neuroimaging studies typically focus on a particular paradigm to investigate network connectivity, the human brain appears to possess an intrinsic "trait" architecture that is independent of any given paradigm. We have previously proposed the use of "cross-paradigm connectivity (CPC)" to quantify shared connectivity patterns across multiple paradigms and have demonstrated the utility of such measures in clinical studies. Here, using generalizability theory and connectome fingerprinting, we examined the reliability, stability, and individual identifiability of CPC in a group of highly-sampled healthy traveling subjects who received fMRI scans with a battery of five paradigms across multiple sites and days. Compared with single-paradigm connectivity matrices, the CPC matrices showed higher reliability in connectivity diversity, lower reliability in connectivity strength, higher stability, and higher individual identification accuracy. All of these assessments increased as a function of number of paradigms included in the CPC analysis. In comparisons involving different paradigm combinations and different brain atlases, we observed significantly higher reliability, stability, and identifiability for CPC matrices constructed from task-only data (versus those from both task and rest data), and higher identifiability but lower stability for CPC matrices constructed from the Power atlas (versus those from the AAL atlas). Moreover, we showed that multi-paradigm CPC matrices likely reflect the brain's "trait" structure that cannot be fully achieved from single-paradigm data, even with multiple runs. The present results provide evidence for the feasibility and utility of CPC in the study of functional "trait" networks and offer some methodological implications for future CPC studies.

AimRecent findings suggest that family-focused therapy (FFT) is effective for individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P). As outcomes of CHR-P individuals are quite varied, certain psychosocial interventions may be differentially effective in subgroups. The present study examined change in positive symptoms for CHR-P individuals at different levels of predicted risk for conversion to psychosis who received either FFT, a brief form of family education termed enhanced care (EC) or treatment as usual.MethodsParticipants were drawn from the North American Prodromal Longitudinal Study (NAPLS2). A subset of NAPLS2 participants completed a randomized study involving FFT or EC. The present study includes participants from the FFT-CHR sub-study and non-randomized NAPLS2 participants. Predicted risk of conversion was calculated using the Individualized Risk Calculator for Psychosis. Robust linear regressions evaluated whether the association between predicted risk of conversion and positive symptom change differed across intervention groups.ResultsA total of 94 participants from the FFT-CHR sub-study (FFT-CHR n = 50, EC n = 44) and 401 non-randomized NAPLS2 participants were included in this study. There was a treatment group by predicted risk of conversion interaction that predicted positive symptom improvement: higher risk individuals improved more with FFT-CHR than EC or the non-randomized NAPLS group, whereas lower-risk individuals did not differ in positive symptom improvement across treatment groups (FFT-CHR vs EC: P = .03, β = 20.27; FFT-CHR vs NAPLS2: P

Psychotic symptoms are not only an important feature of severe neuropsychiatric disorders, but are also common in the general population, especially in youth. The genetic etiology of psychosis symptoms in youth remains poorly understood. To characterize genetic risk for psychosis spectrum symptoms (PS), we leverage a community-based multiethnic sample of children and adolescents aged 8-22 years, the Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort (n = 7225, 20% PS). Using an elastic net regression model, we aim to classify PS status using polygenic scores (PGS) based on a range of heritable psychiatric and brain-related traits in a multi-PGS model. We also perform univariate PGS associations and evaluate age-specific effects. The multi-PGS analyses do not improve prediction of PS status over univariate models, but reveal that the attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) PGS is robustly and uniquely associated with PS (OR 1.12 (1.05, 1.18) P = 0.0003). This association is driven by subjects of European ancestry (OR = 1.23 (1.14, 1.34), P = 4.15 × 10-7) but is not observed in African American subjects (P = 0.65). We find a significant interaction of ADHD PGS with age (P = 0.01), with a stronger association in younger children. The association is independent of phenotypic overlap between ADHD and PS, not indirectly driven by substance use or childhood trauma, and appears to be specific to PS rather than reflecting general psychopathology in youth. In an independent sample, we replicate an increased ADHD PGS in 328 youth at clinical high risk for psychosis, compared to 216 unaffected controls (OR 1.06, CI(1.01, 1.11), P = 0.02). Our findings suggest that PS in youth may reflect a different genetic etiology than psychotic symptoms in adulthood, one more akin to ADHD, and shed light on how genetic risk can be investigated across early disease trajectories.

BackgroundRisk calculators are useful tools that can help clinicians and researchers better understand an individual's risk of conversion to psychosis. The North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS2) Individualized Risk Calculator has good predictive accuracy but could be potentially improved by the inclusion of a biomarker. Baseline cortisol, a measure of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis functioning that is impacted by biological vulnerability to stress and exposure to environmental stressors, has been shown to be higher among individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHRP) who eventually convert to psychosis than those who do not. We sought to determine whether the addition of baseline cortisol to the NAPLS2 risk calculator improved the performance of the risk calculator.MethodsParticipants were drawn from the NAPLS2 study. A subset of NAPLS2 participants provided salivary cortisol samples. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression evaluated the likelihood of an individual's eventual conversion to psychosis based on demographic and clinical variables in addition to baseline cortisol levels.ResultsA total of 417 NAPLS2 participants provided salivary cortisol and were included in the analysis. Higher levels of cortisol were predictive of conversion to psychosis in a univariate model (C-index = 0.59, HR = 21.5, p-value = 0.004). The inclusion of cortisol in the risk calculator model resulted in a statistically significant improvement in performance from the original risk calculator model (C-index = 0.78, SE = 0.028).ConclusionsSalivary cortisol is an inexpensive and non-invasive biomarker that could improve individual predictions about conversion to psychosis and treatment decisions for CHR-P individuals.

Comorbid diagnoses are common in youth who are at clinical high-risk (CHR) for developing psychosis, with depression being the most common. The aim of this paper is to examine depression over two years in a large sample of CHR youth who do not make the transition to psychosis, considering both categorical and dimensional ratings of depression severity. The sample consisted of 267 CHR youth who were followed for two years. Based on DSM-IV diagnoses over this time period, 100 CHR individuals never received a diagnosis of depression, 64 individuals continuously met criteria for depression, 92 individuals received a diagnosis of depression at one or more timepoints, and 11 participants had a diagnosis of depression only at 24-months. These groupings were supported by six-monthly ratings on the Calgary Depression Scale. The majority of this sample experienced a major depressive episode on more than one occasion, suggesting that depression and depressive symptoms identify a domain of substantial unmet clinical need. Recommendations are that depression in CHR youth and young adults should be monitored more frequently and that there is a need for clinical trials to address depression systematically in this vulnerable population.

ObjectivesWhile co-morbid depression is associated with poor functional outcome among patients with schizophrenia, whether depression similarly predicts poorer outcomes in individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) is not clear. The present study aimed to examine depressive symptoms in relation to long-term global functional outcomes in the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study cohort (NAPLS2).MethodsCHR individuals were evaluated clinically at baseline and at 12- and 24-month follow-ups for depressive and prodromal symptom severity as well as general functioning. Regression models were built to investigate whether baseline positive and depressive symptom scores predicted longitudinal improvement in global functioning.ResultsA total of 406 CHR individuals completed the 12-month follow-up assessment and 259 CHR individuals completed the 24-month assessment. Baseline depressive symptoms in the CHR-P population were found to predict better global functional outcomes at 2 years. Furthermore, the degree of recovery of depressive symptoms in the first year following baseline completely mediated the association between depressive symptoms at baseline and functional improvement at 2 years.ConclusionsPresence of affective symptoms within the CHR-P population has different implications for prognosis compared with patients with schizophrenia. The present findings support the view that among those at risk for psychosis, depressive symptoms at baseline predict a more favorable course of functional recovery, and highlight the potential importance of treating co-occurring depressive symptoms at an early stage of psychosis risk.

Individuals face discrimination based on characteristics including race/ethnicity, gender, age, and disability. Discriminatory experiences (DE) are associated with poor psychological health in the general population and with worse outcomes among individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR). Though the brain is sensitive to stress, and brain structural change is a well-documented precursor to psychosis, potential relationships between DE and brain structure among CHR or healthy individuals are not known. This report assessed whether lifetime DE are associated with cortical thinning and clinical outcomes across time, after controlling for discrimination-related demographic factors among CHR individuals who ultimately do (N = 57) and do not convert to psychosis (N = 451), and healthy comparison (N = 208) participants in the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study 2. Results indicate that DE are associated with thinner cortex across time in several cortical areas. Thickness in several right hemisphere regions partially mediates associations between DE and subsequent anxiety symptoms, but not attenuated positive symptoms of psychosis. This report provides the first evidence to date of an association between DE and brain structure in both CHR and healthy comparison individuals. Results also suggest that thinner cortex across time in areas linked with DE may partially explain associations between DE and cross-diagnostic indicators of psychological distress.

Psychosis rates in autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are 5-35% higher than in the general population. The overlap in sensory and attentional processing abnormalities highlights the possibility of related neurobiological substrates. Previous research has shown that several electroencephalography (EEG)-derived event-related potential (ERP) components that are abnormal in schizophrenia, including P300, are also abnormal in individuals at Clinical High Risk (CHR) for psychosis and predict conversion to psychosis. Yet, it is unclear whether P300 is similarly sensitive to psychosis risk in help-seeking CHR individuals with ASD history. In this exploratory study, we leveraged data from the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS2) to probe for the first time EEG markers of longitudinal psychosis profiles in ASD. Specifically, we investigated the P300 ERP component and its sensitivity to psychosis conversion across CHR groups with (ASD+) and without (ASD-) comorbid ASD. Baseline EEG data were analyzed from 304 CHR patients (14 ASD+; 290 ASD-) from the NAPLS2 cohort who were followed longitudinally over two years. We examined P300 amplitude to infrequent Target (10%; P3b) and Novel distractor (10%; P3a) stimuli from visual and auditory oddball tasks. Whereas P300 amplitude attenuation is typically characteristic of CHR and predictive of conversion to psychosis in non-ASD sample, in our sample, history of ASD moderated this relationship such that, in CHR/ASD+ individuals, enhanced - rather than attenuated - visual P300 (regardless of stimulus type) was associated with psychosis conversion. This pattern was also seen for auditory P3b amplitude to Target stimuli. Though drawn from a small sample of CHR individuals with ASD, these preliminary results point to a paradoxical effect, wherein those with both CHR and ASD history who go on to develop psychosis have a unique pattern of enhanced neural response during attention orienting to both visual and target stimuli. Such a pattern stands out from the usual finding of P300 amplitude reductions predicting psychosis in non-ASD CHR populations and warrants follow up in larger scale, targeted, longitudinal studies of those with ASD at clinical high risk for psychosis.

ObjectiveTo determine the optimal methods for measuring mismatch negativity (MMN), an auditory event-related potential (ERP), and quantify sources of MMN variance in a multisite setting.MethodsReliability of frequency, duration, and double (frequency + duration) MMN was determined from eight traveling subjects, tested on two occasions at eight laboratory sites. Deviant-specific variance components were estimated for MMN peak amplitude and latency measures using different ERP processing methods. Generalizability (G) coefficients were calculated using two-facet (site and occasion), fully-crossed models and single-facet (occasion) models within each laboratory to assess MMN reliability.ResultsG-coefficients calculated from two-facet models indicated fair (0.4  0.5). MMN amplitude reliability was greater than latency reliability, and reliability with mastoid referencing significantly outperformed nose-referencing.ConclusionsEEG preprocessing methods have an impact on the reliability of MMN amplitude. Within site MMN reliability can be excellent, consistent with prior single site studies.SignificanceWith standardized data collection and ERP processing, MMN can be reliably obtained in multisite studies, providing larger samples sizeswithin rare patient groups.

Mounting evidence has shown disrupted brain network architecture across the psychosis spectrum. However, whether these changes relate to the development of psychosis is unclear. Here, we used graph theoretical analysis to investigate longitudinal changes in resting-state brain networks in samples of 72 subjects at clinical high risk (including 8 cases who converted to full psychosis) and 48 healthy controls drawn from the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS) consortium. We observed progressive reduction in global efficiency (P = 0.006) and increase in network diversity (P = 0.001) in converters compared with non-converters and controls. More refined analysis separating nodes into nine key brain networks demonstrated that these alterations were primarily driven by progressively diminished local efficiency in the default-mode network (P = 0.004) and progressively enhanced node diversity across all networks (P

The mismatch negativity (MMN) event-related potential (ERP) component is increasingly viewed as a prediction error signal elicited when a deviant sound violates the prediction that a frequent "standard" sound will repeat. Support for this predictive coding framework emerged with the identification of the repetition positivity (RP), a standard stimulus ERP component that increases with standard repetition and is thought to reflect strengthening of the standard's memory trace and associated predictive code. Using electroencephalographic recordings, we examined the RP elicited by repeating standard tones presented during a traditional "constant standard" MMN paradigm in individuals with the psychosis risk syndrome (PRS; n = 579) and healthy controls (HC; n = 241). Clinical follow-up assessments identified PRS participants who converted to a psychotic disorder (n = 77) and PRS nonconverters who were followed for the entire 24-month clinical follow-up period and either remained symptomatic (n = 144) or remitted from the PRS (n = 94). In HC, RP linearly increased from early- to late-appearing standards within local trains of repeating standards (p < .0001), consistent with auditory predictive code/memory trace strengthening. Relative to HC, PRS participants showed a reduced RP across standards (p = .0056). PRS converters showed a relatively small RP deficit for early appearing standards relative to HC (p = .0.0107) and a more prominent deficit for late-appearing standards (p = .0006) relative to both HC and PRS-remitted groups. Moreover, greater RP deficits predicted shorter time to conversion in a subsample of unmedicated PRS individuals (p = .02). Thus, auditory predictive coding/memory trace deficits precede psychosis onset and predict future psychosis risk in PRS individuals. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

ObjectivesMismatch negativity (MMN), an auditory event-related potential sensitive to deviance detection, is smaller in schizophrenia and psychosis risk. In a multisite study, a regression approach to account for effects of site and age (12-35 years) was evaluated alongside the one-year stability of MMN.MethodsStability of frequency, duration, and frequency + duration (double) deviant MMN was assessed in 167 healthy subjects, tested on two occasions, separated by 52 weeks, at one of eight sites. Linear regression models predicting MMN with age and site were validated and used to derive standardized MMN z-scores. Variance components estimated for MMN amplitude and latency measures were used to calculate Generalizability (G) coefficients within each site to assess MMN stability. Trait-like aspects of MMN were captured by averaging across occasions and correlated with subject traits.ResultsAge and site accounted for less than 7% of MMN variance. G-coefficients calculated at electrode Fz were stable (G = 0.63) across deviants and sites for amplitude measured in a fixed window, but not for latency (G = 0.37). Frequency deviant MMN z-scores averaged across tests negatively correlated with averaged global assessment of functioning.ConclusionMMN amplitude is stable and can be standardized to facilitate longitudinal multisite studies of patients and clinical features.

Whilst elevations in basal cortisol levels have been reported among individuals at-risk for psychosis, the extent to which this represents hyperresponsivity of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis to psychosocial stressors encountered in the natural environment is currently unclear. We aimed to examine stressor-cortisol concordance among youth at clinical high-risk (CHR) for psychosis in the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study 2 (NAPLS 2) and the relationship with clinical outcome. At baseline, CHR (N = 457) and healthy (N = 205) individuals provided salivary cortisol samples and completed daily stressor, life event, and childhood trauma measures. CHR youth were categorised as remitted, symptomatic, progression of positive symptoms, or psychosis conversion at the two-year follow-up. Within-group regression models tested associations between psychosocial stressors and cortisol; standardised beta coefficients (Stβ) were subsequently derived to enable within-group pooling of effect sizes across stressor types. After adjustment for potential confounders, all CHR subgroups reported greater exposure to life events and daily stressors, and more distress in relation to these events, relative to controls. All CHR groups were also more likely to experience childhood trauma; only CHR converters, however, were characterised by elevated basal cortisol. Daily stressor distress was significantly associated with cortisol in controls (β = 0.60, 95% CI: 0.12-1.08) and CHR youth who converted to psychosis (β = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.05-1.78). In controls only, life event exposure was associated with cortisol (β = 0.45, 95% CI: 0.08-0.83). When pooled across stressors, stressor-cortisol concordance was substantially higher among CHR converters (Stβ = 0.26, 95% CI: 0.07 to 0.44) relative to CHR progressed (Stβ = 0.02, 95% CI: -0.11 to 0.15), symptomatic (Stβ = 0.01, 95% CI: -0.11 to 0.12), and remitted groups (Stβ = 0.00, 95% CI: -0.13 to 0.13); however, unexpectedly, healthy controls showed intermediate levels of concordance (Stβ = 0.15, 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.26). In conclusion, whilst all CHR subgroups showed increased psychosocial stress exposure and distress relative to controls, only those who later converted to psychosis were characterised by significantly elevated basal cortisol levels. Moreover, only CHR converters showed a higher magnitude of stressor-cortisol concordance compared to controls, although confidence intervals overlapped considerably between these two groups. These findings do not support the notion that all individuals at CHR for psychosis show HPA hyperresponsiveness to psychosocial stressors. Instead, CHR individuals vary in their response to stressor exposure/distress, perhaps driven by genetic or other vulnerability factors.

OBJECTIVE:The authors sought to characterize differences in outcomes among help-seeking individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis by identifying covariant longitudinal patterns of symptoms and functioning. METHODS:Group-based multitrajectory modeling was applied to longitudinal ratings of four symptom domains (positive, negative, disorganized, general) and general functioning among clinical high-risk individuals in an initial discovery sample (N=422). An independent sample (N=133) was used to test replicability. RESULTS:Three trajectory groups were identified among clinical high-risk individuals in the discovery sample: group 1 (30%) exhibited substantial improvement across all domains, with half reaching positive outcomes for both functioning and positive symptoms; group 2 (49%) exhibited moderate impairments across domains, with approximately one-quarter meeting criteria for positive outcomes; the remaining participants (group 3; 22%) exhibited consistent levels of severe impairment across domains and did not experience positive outcomes. These trajectory groups and remission patterns were replicated in an independent sample. CONCLUSIONS:Replicable subgroups of help-seeking clinical high-risk cases can be ascertained based on distinctive profiles of change over time in symptoms and functioning. Within each of the three identified subgroups, similar patterns of change (i.e., rapid, moderate, or no improvement) were observed across the four symptom domains and functioning. This consistency of change over time across domains within each subgroup is a novel observation supporting the syndrome consistency of clinical high-risk symptoms and signs. The observed trajectory subgroups are suggestive of different degrees of need for clinical interventions, ranging from minimal or supportive for about one-third of cases to increasingly intensive among the remainder.

ObjectiveThe 2-year risk of psychosis in persons who meet research criteria for a high-risk syndrome is about 15%-25%; improvements in risk prediction accuracy would benefit the development and implementation of preventive interventions. The authors sought to assess polygenic risk score (PRS) prediction of subsequent psychosis in persons at high risk and to determine the impact of adding the PRS to a previously validated psychosis risk calculator.MethodsPersons meeting research criteria for psychosis high risk (N=764) and unaffected individuals (N=279) were followed for up to 2 years. The PRS was based on the latest schizophrenia and bipolar genome-wide association studies. Variables in the psychosis risk calculator included stressful life events, trauma, disordered thought content, verbal learning, information processing speed, and family history of psychosis.ResultsFor Europeans, the PRS varied significantly by group and was higher in the psychosis converter group compared with both the nonconverter and unaffected groups, but was similar for the nonconverter group compared with the unaffected group. For non-Europeans, the PRS varied significantly by group; the difference between the converters and nonconverters was not significant, but the PRS was significantly higher in converters than in unaffected individuals, and it did not differ between nonconverters and unaffected individuals. The R2liability (R2 adjusted for the rate of disease risk in the population being studied, here assuming a 2-year psychosis risk between 10% and 30%) for Europeans varied between 9.2% and 12.3% and for non-Europeans between 3.5% and 4.8%. The amount of risk prediction information contributed by the addition of the PRS to the risk calculator was less than severity of disordered thoughts and similar to or greater than for other variables. For Europeans, the PRS was correlated with risk calculator variables of information processing speed and verbal memory.ConclusionsThe PRS discriminates psychosis converters from nonconverters and modestly improves individualized psychosis risk prediction when added to a psychosis risk calculator. The schizophrenia PRS shows promise in enhancing risk prediction in persons at high risk for psychosis, although its potential utility is limited by poor performance in persons of non-European ancestry.

Although the clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR) paradigm has become well-established over the past two decades, one key component has received surprisingly little investigative attention: the predictive validity of the criteria for conversion or transition to frank psychosis. The current study evaluates the predictive validity of the transition to psychosis as measured by the Structured Interview for Psychosis-Risk Syndromes (SIPS) in CHR individuals. Participants included 33 SIPS converters and 399 CHR non-converters both from the North American Prodromal Longitudinal Study (NAPLS-2), as well as a sample of 67 separately ascertained first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients from the STEP program. Comparisons were made at baseline and one-year follow-up on demographic, diagnostic stability (SCID), and available measurement domains relating to severity of illness (psychotropic medication, psychosocial treatment, and resource utilization). Principal findings are: 1) a large majority of cases in both SIPS converters (n = 27/33, 81.8%) and FEP (n = 57/67, 85.1%) samples met criteria for continued psychosis at one-year follow-up; 2) follow-up prescription rates for current antipsychotic medication were higher in SIPS converters (n = 17/32, 53.1%) compared to SIPS non-converters (n = 81/397, 20.4%), and similar as compared to FEP cases (n = 39/65, 60%); and 3) at follow-up, SIPS converters had higher rates of resource utilization (psychiatric hospitalizations, day hospital admissions, and ER visits) than SIPS non-converters and were similar to FEP in most categories. The results suggest that the SIPS definition of psychosis onset carries substantial predictive validity. Limitations and future directions are discussed.

The recognition of a prodromal period preceding the onset of frank psychosis dates back to its first descriptions. Despite insights gained from a prospective approach to the study of the Clinical High Risk syndrome for psychosis (CHR-P), a prospectively-based understanding of the duration of the psychosis prodrome and the factors that may influence is not well-established. Here we analyze data from the second North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS-2) to characterize prodrome duration in those who converted to psychosis. Of the 764 participants identified as being at CHR-P, 94 converted to psychosis and 92 of these had recorded estimates of prodrome onset. Estimates of prodrome duration were derived from CHR-P syndrome onset and conversion dates from the Structured Interview for Psychosis-risk Syndromes. Results identified a mean prodrome duration of 21.6 months. Neither CHR-P sub-syndrome nor medication exposure was found to significantly influence prodrome duration in this sample. These results provide the most precise estimate of prodrome duration to date, although results are limited to prodromes identified by ascertainment as being at CHR-P. Our findings also suggest a rule of thirds with regard to prodrome duration in those followed for two years: one third of CHR-P patients who convert will do so by 1 year after CHR-P syndrome onset, another third 1-2 years after onset, and the final third more than 2 years after onset.

AbstractBiomarkers are important in the study of the prodromal period of psychosis because they can help to identify individuals at greatest risk for future psychotic illness and provide insights into disease mechanism underlying neurodevelopmental abnormalities. The biomarker abnormalities can then be targeted with treatment, with an aim toward prevention or mitigation of disease. The human startle paradigm has been used in translational studies of psychopathology including psychotic illness to assess preattentive information processing for over 50 years. In one of the largest studies to date in clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis participants, we aimed to evaluate startle indices as biomarkers of risk along with the role of age, sex, treatment, and substance use in this population of high risk individuals.MethodsStartle response reactivity, latency, and prepulse inhibition (PPI) were assessed in 543 CHR and 218 Normal Comparison (NC) participants between the ages of 12 and 35.ResultsAt 1 year follow-up, 58 CHR participants had converted to psychosis. CHR and NC groups did not differ across any of the startle measures but those CHR participants who later converted to psychosis had significantly slower startle latency than did those who did not convert to psychosis, and this effect was driven by female CHR participants. PPI was significantly associated with age in the CHR, but not the NC, participants with the greatest positive age correlations present in those CHR participants who later converted to psychosis, consistent with a prior report. Finally, there was a significant group by cannabis use interaction due to greater PPI in cannabis users and opposite PPI group effects in users (CHR>NC) and non-users (NC>CHR).DiscussionThis is the first study to demonstrate a relationship of startle response latency to psychotic conversion in a CHR population. PPI is an important biomarker that may be sensitive to the neurodevelopmental abnormalities thought to be present in psychosis prone individuals and the effects of cannabis. The significant correlations with age in this sample as well as the finding of greater PPI in CHR cannabis users replicate findings from another large sample of CHR participants.

There has been growing interest on the effect of sleep problems on psychotic and prodromal symptoms. The current study investigated cross-sectional relations between sleep problems and attenuated psychotic symptoms in a large sample of 740 youth at Clinical High Risk (CHR) for psychosis in an attempt to replicate previous findings and assess whether findings from general population samples and psychotic samples extend to this CHR sample. Sleep problems were found to be significantly positively associated with attenuated psychotic symptom severity. Sleep problems were also found to be more closely associated with certain specific prodromal symptoms (e.g., suspiciousness and perceptual abnormalities) than other attenuated psychotic symptoms. Further, we found that depression mediated the cross-sectional association between sleep problems and paranoid symptoms only. This adds to a growing body of evidence suggesting the mediation role of depression is more pronounced for paranoid-type psychotic symptoms as compared to other psychotic symptoms (e.g., hallucinations).