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Problems of natural resources management are often wicked problems. They involve multiple stakeholders with different worldviews different needs and agendas in a world with pervasive uncertainties. The answers to such problems are not technical fixes but political processes that engage the stakeholders in problem solving iterative loops. In many cases deforestation and degradation are the rational choice not the result of a lack of awareness or knowledge. Mainstreaming biodiversity conservation into production landscapes thus requires careful consideration of the drivers needs and constraints of farmers. Participatory modeling approaches such as Companion Modelling (ComMod) help to understand the drivers behind landscape transitions and explore with the stakeholders the plausible livelihood and environmental impacts of a policy change. While the underlying driving ecological processes can be modeled based on expert knowledge and published scientific literature the actual elements of the system the key actors resources and their interactions are defined together with the stakeholders. The resulting conceptual model can then be transformed into a Role Playing Game for validation. In a second phase the validated model can be used to explore alternative futures navigating the complex and multiple feedback loops that changes in the policy and institutional framework can have on the individual strategies of the stakeholders. Knowledge brokers can then use the results of these scenarios to feed discussions and highlight potential avenues for change embedding the research in the decision making process at different scales. This article will illustrate the approach with two case studies from the tropical landscapes from South Asia and Madagascar.

The phyto or zoogeographical classification proposed during the 20th century describe the contemporary distribution of taxa or types of forests but they do not consider the conditions under which the ecosystems evolved nor do they take into account the substantial shifts of ecosystems during recent paleoclimate oscillations. Within the last millennia large lemurs pigmy hippo giant tortoises Elephant birds and large waterbirds have disappeared from Madagascar’s landscapes. During colder phases when icecaps extended in the higher latitudes lower latitudes became drier and colder while the forests receded. During warmer phases the lower latitudes experienced hot and humid climate with the forests expanding again. A single climate oscillation may not drive speciation in most groups as in the case of lemurs and birds but within a single oscillation a population of a species can be driven to local or complete extinction. Since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) several wetlands and lakes in Madagascar have completely dried out and were not able to sustain animal populations as documented by recent subfossil records. The centers of endemism model identifies two main refugia types: (1) the dispersal refugia typically represented by riparian forests along perennial rivers with headwaters at high altitude and (2) the refugia of endemism typically located in lowland residual reliefs. Here wetland systems such as lakes and marshlands are considered. Lake Alaotra Madagascar’s current biggest wetland has unique and narrow ranged endemic species. The hypothesis is that lakes can act as refugia as long as they are hydrologically connected i.e. fed by rivers draining orographic precipitation and drained by downstream rivers. These lakes maintained their aquatic fauna and flora as well as their riparian forests along their banks and forest connectivity between upper tributaries feeding the lake and lower tributaries draining the lake. This article will present four sites two modern lakes and two paleolakes/wetlands.

Conservation and development are intricately linked. The international donor community has long provided aid to tropical countries in an effort to alleviate poverty and conserve biodiversity. While hundreds of millions of have been invested in over 500 environmental based projects in Madagascar during the period covered by a series of National Environmental Action Plans (1993–2008) and the protected areas network has expanded threefold deforestation remains unchecked and none of the eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) established for 2000–2015 were likely be met. Efforts to achieve sustainable development had failed to reduce poverty or deliver progress toward any of the MDGs. Cross sectorial policy adjustments are needed that (i) enable and catalyze Madagascar’s capacities rather than deepening dependency on external actors such as the World Bank the International Monetary Fund and donor countries and that (ii) deliver improvements to the livelihoods and wellbeing of the country’s rural poor.