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Understanding demographic vital rates and the factors that affect those rates are key components of successful conservation strategies for many threatened and endangered rare plant species. Lindera subcoriacea is a rare dioecious shrub that occupies isolated wetland habitats in a small number of locations in the southeastern United States. The species faces a number of threats to its continued persistence, including habitat destruction, invasive species, and population isolation. From 2011 to 2019, we collected demographic information from 290 L. subcoriacea individuals within 28 populations on Fort Bragg, North Carolina and used the data to estimate demographic vital rates in unburned populations and after being exposed to prescribed fire. We then constructed population matrices and estimated population growth rates under a 3-, 5-, and 10-year return interval. Results indicated that L. subcoriacea individuals have high survivorship in both burned and unburned populations, seed production was reduced 1- and 2-year post-fire, seed production was highly uneven across individuals, seedling recruitment was extremely low, and simulated population growth rates were only above 1.0 under the 10-year fire return interval. Taken together, these results indicate that (1) L. subcoriacea populations are persisting with population growth rates close to one, (2) the short-term impacts of fire on the overall population growth rate of L. subcoriacea, while only 2–3% may determine long-term population viability, and (3) extremely uneven seed production and limited recruitment of seedlings into larger size classes make L. subcoriacea populations vulnerable to stochastic demographic processes.

Information about seed dispersal effectiveness (SDE) for plant species of conservation concern is rarely available to inform management strategies and actions. For Lindera subcoriacea (bog spicebush, Lauraceae), a rare endemic dioecious shrub of the southeastern United States, we examined the influence of two intrinsic and five extrinsic drivers on the number and proportion of seeds either dispersed, or predated pre- and post-dispersal. The number of seeds dispersed characterizes the quantitative component of SDE, while pre- and post-dispersal seed predation can affect the qualitative component of SDE. Using fruit counts, seed traps, and seed removal depots over multiple years, we estimated that approximately 28% of L. subcoriacea seeds are lost to pre-dispersal predation, 69% of seeds are dispersed, 3% of seeds fail to disperse, and 65% of dispersed seeds are predated post-dispersal. We observed substantial variation in these three processes among individuals. We also found that both intrinsic (plant height, crop size) and extrinsic (understory cover, time since last fire, conspecific fruiting neighborhood, substrate) drivers differentially influenced the three processes. We identified four generalist, seasonally frugivorous, avian visitors at fruiting individuals that likely act as variably effective dispersers, while the Northern Cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis L.) is a seed predator. Rodent granivores were important pre- and post-dispersal seed predators. The magnitude of our pre-dispersal and post-dispersal seed predation estimates suggest that, given the low fecundity of L. subcoriacea, conservation strategies should emphasize facilitating dispersal and reducing the effects of seed predation.

Seed dormancy is a trait that has evolved to maximize germination when environmental conditions are optimal for successful recruitment of new individuals into a population. Physical dormancy is one such trait common in legumes and release from this condition is often associated with disturbance events, such as fire. Changes to the specific conditions (e.g., climate, fire regimes) that release seeds from dormancy can have negative effects on populations, especially of rare species. Therefore, understanding the species-specific requirements needed to release seeds from dormancy and induce germination provides insight into ecological processes, effects of changing environmental conditions, and potential conservation actions. Amorpha georgiana (Fabaceae) is a rare subshrub with indehiscent fruits (pods) found in fire-maintained longleaf pine habitats in the southeastern United States. The germination ecology of this species is largely unknown. The goals of this study were to determine the presence of physically dormant seed in A. georgiana and then, through a series of laboratory-based experiments, resolve the fire related factors that effectively overcome dormancy and promote germination. The seeds of A. georgiana exhibit physical dormancy and show significantly higher germination after brief exposure to hot water (94 °C) compared to all other temperatures and treatments assessed. Regardless of treatment, seeds have low germination when retained in their pods, but the pod is not the cause of physical dormancy. We found enclosure within an indehiscent pod and exposure to pyrogenic temperatures (> 80 °C) both affect dormancy release and germination of A. georgiana. The 3.5-fold increase in germination at pyrogenic temperatures suggests the response is highly fire-adapted and fits the definition of obligate pyrogenic dormancy release. While season of fire exposure was not significant in our study, we did find consistent negative effects on the germination response. Our results suggest pulses of heat from periodic growing season fires are likely necessary to promote recruitment and maintain populations of this rare species.

Prior to European settlement the longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem covered over 92 million hectares in the southeastern United States. Historically, fire was an important driver of species composition in the longleaf pine ecosystem, but fire exclusion since the early 20th century has led to the degradation of longleaf pine communities and has had a detrimental effect on the large number of rare and endemic species found within this system. Thus, accurate estimates of fire history are important for better informed management of longleaf pine communities. Recently, satellite imagery has been used to identify burned areas. However, results have been inconsistent across physiographic regions and vegetation types (e.g. wetlands under high canopy). We developed a model using Landsat satellite imagery, coupled with a Random Forest (RF) machine learning algorithm, to identify burned areas and estimate the fire history from 1991 to 2019 for Fort Bragg, NC, one of the largest contiguous areas of longleaf pine ecosystem remaining. We calculated six spectral indices from the Landsat band values, including the Mid-Infrared Burn Index (MIRBI) and the change in MIRBI through time (ΔMIRBI), and used them as predictors in our RF model. We used the developed RF model to estimate the fire history for all known populations of 24 rare upland and wetland plant species found on Fort Bragg. We compared our results to a recent continental U.S. fire occurrence dataset, as well as the prescribed fire records from Fort Bragg. The overall AUC (area under the curve) for our RF model (0.74) compared favorably to the continental U.S. dataset results for Fort Bragg (0.69), and was able to capture the reduced fire frequency in wetlands. The most important predictor in our RF model was ΔMIRBI. Depending on the model, individual plant species were estimated to have experienced significant differences in fire frequency relative to the prescribed fire records. For our RF model, we estimated that 50% of wetland and 25% of upland species experienced a lower fire frequency relative to that represented in the prescribed fire records. The burn probability and classification tool generated in this paper provides land managers in the southeastern U.S. with a novel approach for accurately identifying burned areas and estimating local fire frequency across landscapes.

The causes of species rarity are of critical concern because of the high extinction risk associated with rarity. Studies examining individual rare species have limited generality, whereas trait-based approaches offer a means to identify functional causes of rarity that can be applied to communities with disparate species pools. Differences in functional traits between rare and common species may be indicative of the functional causes of species rarity and may therefore be useful in crafting species conservation strategies. However, there is a conspicuous lack of studies comparing the functional traits of rare species and co-occurring common species. We measured 18 important functional traits for 19 rare and 134 common understory plant species from North Carolina's Sandhills region and compared their trait distributions to determine whether there are significant functional differences that may explain species rarity. Flowering, fire, and tissue-chemistry traits differed significantly between rare and common, co-occurring species. Differences in specific traits suggest that fire suppression has driven rarity in this system and that changes to the timing and severity of prescribed fire may improve conservation success. Our method provides a useful tool to prioritize conservation efforts in other systems based on the likelihood that rare species are functionally capable of persisting.

Fire controls tree cover in many savannas by suppressing saplings through repeated topkill and resprouting, causing a demographic bottleneck. Tree cover can increase dramatically if even a small fraction of saplings escape this fire trap, so modeling and management of savanna vegetation should account for occasional individuals that escape the fire trap because they are "better" (i.e., they grow faster than average) or because they are "lucky" (they experience an occasional longer-than-average interval without fire or a below-average fire severity). We quantified variation in growth rates and topkill probability in Quercus laevis (turkey oak) in longleaf pine savanna to estimate the percentage of stems expected to escape the fire trap due to variability in (1) growth rate, (2) fire severity, and (3) fire interval. For trees growing at the mean rate and exposed to the mean fire severity and the mean fire interval, no saplings are expected to become adults under typical fire frequencies. Introducing variability in any of these factors, however, allows some individuals to escape the fire trap. A variable fire interval had the greatest influence, allowing 8% of stems to become adults within a century. In contrast, introducing variation in fire severity and growth rate should allow 2.8% and 0.3% of stems to become adults, respectively. Thus, most trees that escape the fire trap do so because of luck. By chance, they experience long fire-free intervals and/or a low-severity fire when they are not yet large enough to resist an average fire. Fewer stems escape the fire trap by being unusually fast-growing individuals. It is important to quantify these sources of variation and their consequences to improve understanding, prediction, and management of vegetation dynamics of fire-maintained savannas. Here we also present a new approach to quantifying variation in fire severity utilizing a latent-variable model of logistic regression.

Rare species reintroductions are an increasingly common conservation strategy, but often result in poor survival of reintroduced individuals. Reintroduction sites are chosen primarily based on historical occupancy and/or abiotic properties of the site, with much less consideration given to properties of the larger biotic community. However, ecological niche theory suggests that the ability to coexist with other species is determined in part by the degree of functional similarity between species. The degree to which functional similarity affects the survival of reintroduced plants is poorly understood, but has important implications for the allocation of limited conservation resources. We collected a suite of abiotic, biotic, and functional trait variables centered on outplanted individuals from four reintroduced rare plant species and used logistic regression and model selection to assess their influence on individual survival. We show that higher functional similarity between reintroduced individuals and the local community, measured by differences between their multivariate functional traits and the community-weighted mean traits of their immediate neighbors, increases survival and is a stronger predictor of survival than local variation in abiotic factors, suggesting that the functional composition of the biotic community should be incorporated into site selection to improve reintroduction success.

Canebrakes formerly occupied hundreds of thousands of hectares across the southeastern USA, but habitat conversion and fire suppression have reduced their size and extent. Currently, canebrakes are among the rarest vegetative communities in the southeastern USA. Research has focused on Arundinaria gigantea (river cane), with very little focus on Arundinaria tecta (switch cane). The fire history, area, associated flora, and species frequency of 13 canebrakes, dominated by switch cane, were examined at three Department of the Army locations and one game land in the Sandhills physiographic region. We determined canebrake area by identifying its unique vegetative signature in aerial photography at three time steps: earliest aerial photography, the beginning of the recorded burn history, and current aerial photography. We compared fire-return intervals to changes in canebrake area. We created a checklist and tallied 330 taxa of vascular plants (plus Sphagnum sp.) from the 13 canebrakes in our study a...

Soil classification systems are widely used for quickly and easily summarizing soil properties and provide a shorthand method of communication between scientists, engineers, and end-users. Two of the most widely used soil classification systems are the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) textural soil classification system and the Unified Soil Classification System (USCS). Unfortunately, not all soil map units are classified according to the USDA or USCS systems, and previous attempts to provide a crosswalk table have been inconsistent. Random Forest machine learning model was used to create a USCS prediction model using USDA soil property variables. Important variables for predicting USCS code from available soil properties were USDA soil textures, percent organic material, and available water storage. Prediction error rates less than 2% were achieved compared to error rates of approximately 40% using crosswalk methods.

The US Department of Defense is taking proactive steps to conserve rare species that occur primarily on lands under its stewardship, including Astragalus michauxii (Kuntze) F.J. Herm. (Sandhills milkvetch; Fabaceae). We completed a series of evaluations to determine effective means of germinating and propagating A. michauxii . We collected A. michauxii seed from Fort Bragg, an Army Installation located in the Sandhills ecoregion of North Carolina. While previous work described a germination protocol and suggested the presence of chemical dormancy, we determined that A. michauxii possesses only physical dormancy, which can be successfully broken by mechanical scarification yielding a 94% germination rate. We also developed an effective method for large-scale propagation of A. michauxii by directly sowing seed into media, rather than transplanting seedlings from Petri plates. This method resulted in an emergence rate comparable to the observed germination rate and a 69% survivorship of seedlings ex situ . Our simplified germination and propagation protocols can effectively be used to provide individual plants for use in reintroduction and restoration.

The ability to propagate and successfully reintroduce rare plant species is an important component in the conservation biologist's toolbox. Unfortunately for many species, propagation methods and details about the species' life histories, which can potentially inform reintroduction efforts, are often unknown. We describe for the first time the pseudoannual life cycle of rough-leaved loosestrife (Lysimachia asperulifolia Poiret [Primulaceae]) and techniques that we have used to vegetatively propagate and reintroduce this federally endangered species endemic to the Atlantic Coastal Plain of the United States. Using simulated dormancy and controlled soil temperatures, we increased the number of collected viable rhizomes by approximately 76% over one growing season. At two translocation sites, stem numbers increased an average of 318 ± 145 SD % in five of seven test plots between 2004 and 2010. Using dormant-season–harvested rhizomes and/or reducing competition prior to transplanting via mowing or u...

Genetic factors such as decreased genetic diversity and increased homozygosity can have detrimental effects on rare species, and may ultimately limit potential adaptation and exacerbate population declines. The Gulf and Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic region has the second highest level of endemism in the continental USA, but habitat fragmentation and land use changes have resulted in catastrophic population declines for many species. Astragalus michauxii (Fabaceae) is an herbaceous plant endemic to the region that is considered vulnerable to extinction, with populations generally consisting of fewer than 20 individuals. We developed eight polymorphic microsatellites and genotyped 355 individuals from 24 populations. We characterized the population genetic diversity and structure, tested for evidence of past bottlenecks, and identified evidence of contemporary gene flow between populations. The mean ratios of the number of alleles to the allelic range (M ratio) across loci for A. michauxii populations were well below the threshold of 0.68 identified as indicative of a past genetic bottleneck. Genetic diversity estimates were similar across regions and populations, and comparable to other long-lived perennial species. Within-population genetic variation accounted for 92 % of the total genetic variation found in the species. Finally, there is evidence for contemporary gene flow among the populations in North Carolina. Although genetic factors can threaten rare species, maintaining habitats through prescribed burning, in concert with other interventions such as population augmentation or (re)introduction, are likely most critical to the long term survival of A. michauxii.

Prioritizing management of invasive plants is important for large land management entities, such as federal and state public land stewards, because management resources are limited and multiple land uses and management objectives are differentially impacted. Management decisions also have important consequences for the likelihood of success and ultimate cost of control efforts. We applied multi-criteria decision analysis methods in a geographic information system using natural resource and land use data from Fort Bragg, North Carolina. Landscape-scale prioritization was based on a hierarchical model designed to increase invasive plant management efficiencies and reduce the risk of impacts to key installation management goals, such as training-land management and protected species conservation. We also applied spatial sensitivity analyses to evaluate the robustness of the prioritization to perturbations of the model weights, which were used to describe the relative importance of different elements of the hierarchical model. Based on stakeholders' need for confidence in making management investments, we incorporated the results of the sensitivity analysis into the decision-making process. We identified high-priority sites that were minimally affected by the weight perturbations as being suitable for up-front management and evaluated how adopting this strategy affected management area, locations, and costs. We found that incorporating the results of the sensitivity analysis led to a reduced management area, different target locations, and lower costs for an equal area managed. Finally, we confirmed the distinctiveness of the approach by comparing this same subset of prioritized sites with locations representing species-centric strategies for three invasive plants and their aggregate distribution. By supplying pragmatic information about the localized effects of weighting uncertainty, spatial sensitivity analyses enhanced the invasive plant management decision-making process and increased stakeholder confidence.

Biased sex ratios can have conservation consequences for dioecious plant species with small population sizes because of an increased risk of single sex populations. Biased sex ratios have been observed in two of the three species of Lindera (Lauraceae) in the eastern United States, but have not been documented for Lindera subcoriacea, a rare shrub of the southeastern USA. We inventoried 78 of 118 populations in North Carolina over a 3 year period, documenting the location, community type, and sex, of 299 individuals. In addition, we measured the stem height and diameter for 245 individuals. We examined population persistence relative to historical population size estimates. Average population size was 7.9 individuals and 72 % of visited populations were extant. There was a significant positive correlation between historical estimates of population size and persistence. Lindera subcoriacea consistently had male-biased (58 %) sex ratios across all population sizes and vegetation communities. Males and females had similar stem heights (mean 200.4 vs. 187.8 cm, respectively) and diameters (1.3 vs. 1.2 cm, respectively) across years and were not spatially segregated within populations. It is unclear at what stage biased sex ratios arise in L. subcoriacea, but results suggest that the causes operate across vegetation communities and population sizes. The weak bias exhibited in L. subcoriacea sex ratios has limited implications for the species’ conservation except where spatially isolated populations are unisexual. Given the vulnerability of small L. subcoriacea populations to extirpation, they should be high priority targets for management.

Fire can have dramatic effects on the vital rates of plant species and has been used successfully for management in a number of ecosystems. However, the demographic response of species to fire in fire-dependent ecosystems is variable, making it important to study the effects of fire on rare and threatened species. We quantified the effects of fire on Astragalus michauxii and Pyxidanthera brevifolia, two rare endemics of the longleaf pine-wiregrass ecosystem of the southeastern USA, by means of periodic matrix models to project the effect of fire frequency on population growth. In contrast to many species in the longleaf pine-wiregrass ecosystem, fire had short-term negative effects on both species, causing reductions in survival, size, flowering, and fruit production. Relative to the three-year fire intervals to which the study populations are currently exposed, more frequent burning is projected to cause population decline, with the most dramatic effects under annual burning. Although the current longleaf pine-wiregrass ecosystem is fire dependent and has experienced frequent fire for at least several thousand years, we propose that the two endemic species may be remnants from a past vegetation assemblage that experienced less frequent fire and thus may be adapted to longer fire-return intervals compared to other species currently in the ecosystem. Despite the short-term negative effects of fire on the vital rates of these species, longer-term benefits such as reduction of woody encroachment and litter removal may be important for the ultimate success of the species.

Establishing the phylogenetic and demographic history of rare plants improves our understanding of mechanisms that have led to their origin and can lead to valuable insights that inform conservation decisions. The Atlantic coastal plain of eastern North America harbours many rare and endemic species, yet their evolution is poorly understood. We investigate the rare Sandhills lily (Lilium pyrophilum), which is endemic to seepage slopes in a restricted area of the Atlantic coastal plain of eastern North America. Using phylogenetic evidence from chloroplast, nuclear internal transcribed spacer and two low-copy nuclear genes, we establish a close relationship between L. pyrophilum and the widespread Turk's cap lily, L. superbum. Isolation-with-migration and coalescent simulation analyses suggest that (i) the divergence between these two species falls in the late Pleistocene or Holocene and almost certainly post-dates the establishment of the edaphic conditions to which L. pyrophilum is presently restricted, (ii) vicariance is responsible for the present range disjunction between the two species, and that subsequent gene flow has been asymmetrical and (iii) L. pyrophilum harbours substantial genetic diversity in spite of its present rarity. This system provides an example of the role of edaphic specialization and climate change in promoting diversification in the Atlantic coastal plain.

This study provides quantitative ecological targets for restoring degraded peat-based Carolina Bays in the Carolina Flatwoods Ecoregion. Cluster analysis of vegetation data from three Carolina Bay reference sites in Bladen County, North Carolina, indicated four plant communities present: pond pine (Pinus serotina) woodland, non-riverine swamp forest dominated by swamp gum (Nyssa biflora), high pocosin dominated by evergreen shrubs with scattered pond pine, and bay forest dominated by loblolly bay (Gordonia lasianthus). We classified bay soils according to surface organic layer thickness (OLT) into mineral, histic, shallow organic, and deep organic types. We monitored the water table of each soil type in one bay throughout one growing season. The soil types with corresponding water table regimes were: mineral (9.4 cm mean OLT with a rooting zone water table [RZWT] 39% of the monitoring period), histic (27.5 cm OLT and 76% RZWT), shallow organic (63.9 cm OLT and 84% RZWT), and deep organic (102.5 c...

Pyxidanthera brevifolia is an evergreen semi-woody cushion plant endemic to the Sandhills of North and South Carolina, with the majority of populations occurring on Fort Bragg Military Reservation in North Carolina. Currently the species is listed as Endangered in North Carolina and is designated as a Species at Risk (SAR) by the US Department of Defense. Previous studies have suggested that seeds may not be viable because they failed to germinate under controlled conditions. Our objectives in this study were to attempt germination of Pyxidanthera brevifolia seeds, determine the best temperature conditions for germination, and understand more about germination requirements to aid in future restoration efforts. Using seeds that had been stored at room temperature for six months, we performed a germination experiment at the NCSU Phytotron with six treatments, all combinations of three temperature regimes (low (18 °C day / 14 °C night), medium (22/18 °C), and high (26/22 °C)) and two light condition...

Increases in tree density resulting from fire suppression have contributed considerably to the loss of savanna and grassland habitats in North America. Inability to tolerate shade is likely an important cause of species loss in areas that have not maintained historical burning regimes. We conducted an experiment to test whether differences in shade tolerance can explain rarity within the genus Amorpha. Four common and three rare species of Amorpha were grown in a greenhouse for 100 days in direct sun or under 90% shade. Overall, shading significantly reduced growth and survival and affected allocation among species, but these differences did not differ consistently between common and rare species. Ability to tolerate shade was best explained by phenotypic plasticity, with greater shade survival being exhibited by species with the largest changes in leaf area ratio. Furthermore, this study demonstrated that all three of the rare species can be readily cultivated under greenhouse conditions.

The general phylogeographical paradigm for eastern North America (ENA) is that many plant and animal species retreated into southern refugia during the last glacial period, then expanded northward after the last glacial maximum (LGM). However, some taxa of the Gulf and Atlantic Coastal Plain (GACP) demonstrate complex yet recurrent distributional patterns that cannot be explained by this model. For example, eight co-occurring endemic plant taxa with ranges from New York to South Carolina exhibit a large disjunction separating northern and southern populations by300 km. Pyxidanthera (Diapensiaceae), a plant genus that exhibits this pattern, consists of two taxa recognized as either species or varieties. We investigated the taxonomy and phylogeography of Pyxidanthera using morphological data, cpDNA sequences, and amplified fragment length polymorphism markers. Morphological characters thought to be important in distinguishing Pyxidanthera barbulata and P. brevifolia demonstrate substantial overlap with no clear discontinuities. Genetic differentiation is minimal and diversity estimates for northern and southern populations of Pxyidanthera are similar, with no decrease in rare alleles in northern populations. In addition, the northern populations harbour several unique cpDNA haplotypes. Pyxidanthera appears to consist of one morphologically variable species that persisted in or near its present range at least through the latter Pleistocene, while the vicariance of the northern and southern populations may be comparatively recent. This work demonstrates that the refugial paradigm is not always appropriate and GACP endemic plants, in particular, may exhibit phylogeographical patterns qualitatively different from those of other ENA plant species.