1. Aeolus Winds Improve Arctic Weather Prediction.
- Author
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Chou, C.‐C., Kushner, P. J., and Mariani, Z.
- Abstract
It has been proven that assimilating winds from the Aeolus global Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL) would enhance the predictive skill of weather forecast models. In this study, we use a series of observing system experiments to examine how currently assimilated "operational" wind products and Aeolus winds impact environment and climate change Canada's global forecast system over the data‐sparse Arctic region. Aeolus winds improve the tropospheric wind and temperature forecasts by about 0.7%–0.9% of error reduction (a 15%–20% effect compared to the impact of operational wind products) while having little impact on specific humidity. In particular, Aeolus winds have an impact on forecasts of strong wind days on the wind and temperature fields that is double the impact for weaker wind days. On the other hand, the operational wind products do not show as large a discrepancy in impact between forecasts of disturbed and normal days. These findings suggest significant potential for global DWL observations to enhance severe weather prediction in polar regions. Plain Language Summary: State of the art observation systems are necessary to produce accurate weather forecasts. In particular, wind observations are essential in regions where the atmospheric winds cannot be estimated from quantities such as temperature and pressure through geostrophic and thermal wind balance. Aeolus is the first satellite that provides global wind profile measurements and has a proven positive impact on forecasts. In this study, we investigate the impact of a large set of wind observations, including Aeolus winds, on Arctic weather forecasts using Canada's main forecast. We can calculate how these wind observations improve the forecast throughout the atmosphere and find that Aeolus winds further improve the forecast in the Arctic's lower atmosphere. Furthermore, our findings highlight the significance of wind observations in ensuring precise forecasts of intense wind days, which show double the improvement over the forecast of less intense wind days. This suggests that future DWL programs following from Aeolus have the potential to significantly benefit forecast skill in data‐sparse regions such as the Arctic and Antarctic, which are of growing societal, political, and economic interest. Key Points: Operationally assimilated wind products are key to skillful numerical weather prediction in the ArcticAeolus winds improve Arctic wind and temperature fields, contributing 14%–18% of the total gain from all operational wind data setsImprovements from Aeolus are most pronounced on strong wind (high Arctic kinetic energy) days [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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