Search

Although studies have shown posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) associated with risk of suicide, the relationship in later life, especially for overdose death, remains unclear. Thus, the aim of the current study was to determine associations between PTSD, suicide, and unintended overdose death in mid- to late-life.A nationwide cohort study integrating Department of Veterans Affairs' (VA) data, Centers for MedicareMedicaid Services data, and national cause-specific mortality data. Participants were US veterans aged ≥50 years with PTSD diagnoses at baseline (2012-2013) and were propensity-matched 1:1 with patients without PTSD based on sociodemographics, Charlson Comorbidity Index, and neuropsychiatric disorders (N = 951,018). Information on suicide attempts and unintended death by overdose through December 31, 2017 was provided by the VA's National Suicide Prevention Applications Network (non-fatal attempts) and Mortality Data Repository (death).Veterans with PTSD (N = 475,509) had increased risk of suicide attempt (Hazard Ratio [HR], 1.59; 95% CI, 1.54-1.65; p 0.001), non-fatal attempt (HR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.67-1.81; p 0.001), drug overdose death overall (HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.22-1.42; p 0.001), and suicide overdose death (HR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.15-1.80; p = 0.002), even after adjusting for sociodemographics, Charlson comorbidity index, and neuropsychiatric disorders. We found increased risk for overdose death by narcotics (HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.15-1.46; p 0.001), antiepileptic/sedative-hypnotics (HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.02-1.62; p = 0.032), and for other/unspecified drugs (HR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.20-1.51; p 0.001), the last category indicative of polydrug. Results remained robust when examined for unintentional, suicide, and undetermined intent for cause-specific death by other/unspecified drugs.PTSD persists throughout mid- to late-life with considerable increased risk for non-fatal suicide attempts and suicide overdose death. These findings suggest the importance of drug-monitoring in preventing late-life suicide.

Hospitalizations among people with dementia (PWD) may precipitate behavioral changes, leading to the psychotropic medication use despite adverse outcomes and limited efficacy. We sought to determine the incidence of new psychotropic medication use among community-dwelling PWD after hospital discharge and, among new users, the proportion with prolonged use.This was a retrospective cohort study using a 20% random sample of Medicare claims in 2017, including hospitalized PWD with traditional and Part D Medicare who were 68 years or older. The primary outcome was incident prescribing at discharge of psychotropics including antipsychotics, sedative-hypnotics, antiepileptics, and antidepressants. This was defined as new prescription fills (i.e., from classes not used in 180 days preadmission) within 7 days of hospital or skilled nursing facility discharge. Prolonged use was defined as the proportion of new users who continued to fill newly prescribed medications beyond 90 days of discharge.The cohort included 117,022 hospitalized PWD with a mean age of 81 years; 63% were female. Preadmission, 63% were using at least 1 psychotropic medication; 10% were using medications from ≥3 psychotropic classes. These included antidepressants (44% preadmission), antiepileptics (29%), sedative-hypnotics (21%), and antipsychotics (11%). The proportion of PWD discharged from the hospital with new psychotropics ranged from 1.9% (antipsychotics) to 2.9% (antiepileptics); 6.6% had at least one new class started. Among new users, prolonged use ranged from 36% (sedative-hypnotics) to 63% (antidepressants); across drug classes, prolonged use occurred in 51%. Predictors of newly initiated psychotropics included length of stay (≥median vs.median; aOR 1.5, 95% CI: 1.4-1.6) and delirium (aOR 1.8, 95% CI: 1.7-1.9).Hospitalized PWD have a high prevalence of preadmission psychotropic medication use; against this baseline, discharge from the hospital with new psychotropics is relatively uncommon. Nevertheless, prolonged use of newly initiated psychotropics occurs in a substantial proportion of this population.

Claims-based measures of multimorbidity, which evaluate the presence of a defined list of diseases, are limited in their ability to predict future outcomes. We evaluated whether claims-based markers of disease severity could improve assessments of multimorbid burden.We developed 7 dichotomous markers of disease severity which could be applied to a range of diseases using claims data. These markers were based on the number of disease-associated outpatient visits, emergency department visits, and hospitalizations made by an individual over a defined interval; whether an individual with a given disease had outpatient visits to a specialist who typically treats that disease; and ICD-9 codes which connote more versus less advanced or symptomatic manifestations of a disease. Using Medicare claims linked with Health and Retirement Study data, we tested whether including these markers improved ability to predict ADL decline, IADL decline, hospitalization, and death compared to equivalent models which only included the presence or absence of diseases.Of 5012 subjects, median age was 76 years and 58% were female. For a majority of diseases tested individually, adding each of the 7 severity markers yielded minimal increase in c-statistic (≤0.002) for outcomes of ADL decline and mortality compared to models considering only the presence versus absence of disease. Gains in predictive power were more substantial for a small number of individual diseases. Inclusion of the most promising marker in multi-disease multimorbidity indices yielded minimal gains in c-statistics (0.001-0.007) for predicting ADL decline, IADL decline, hospitalization, and death compared to indices without these markers.Claims-based markers of disease severity did not contribute meaningfully to the ability of multimorbidity indices to predict ADL decline, mortality, and other important outcomes.

Older patients with poor prognosis cancers have complex needs that can benefit from geriatrics and palliative care principles. Because they are not routinely assessed, the prevalence of preexisting geriatric and palliative conditions in this population is unknown.We used the nationally representative Health and Retirement Study (HRS) linked with Medicare claims (1998-2016) to identify adults aged ≥65 years diagnosed with poor prognosis cancers (cancers with a median survival ≤1 year). Using the HRS interview before the first Medicare cancer claim, we used survey-weighted descriptive statistics and modified Poisson regression analysis to examine the prevalence of the following clinically significant conditions: functional impairment, difficulty with mobility, falls and injurious falls, social support, cognition, advance care planning, use of pain or sleep medications, and presence of pain or breathlessness.Of 2105 participants (mean age 76, 53% women, 34% lung cancer, 21% gastrointestinal cancer), the median survival was 9.6 months. Approximately 65% had difficulty climbing stairs (95% CI 63%-67%), 49% had no advance directive (95% CI 45%-54%), 35% lived alone (95% CI 33%-37%), 36% fell in the last 2 years (95% CI 34%-38%), and 32% rated their memory as poor (95% CI 29%-34%). After adjusting for gender, cancer type, and HRS survey time before the first Medicare claim for a poor prognosis cancer, functional impairment and falls were highest among adults aged 85+. Adults aged 65-74 years were less likely to have an advance directive. After adjusting for age, cancer type, and HRS survey time, women had a higher rate of pain and physical impairment. In exploratory analyses, race and socioeconomic status predicted difficulty with mobility and instrumental activities of daily living, living alone, and advance directive completion.Due to a high prevalence across multiple domains, all older adults with poor prognosis cancers should be assessed for geriatric and palliative care conditions.

Myelin repair is an unrealized therapeutic goal in the treatment of multiple sclerosis (MS). Uncertainty remains about the optimal techniques for assessing therapeutic efficacy and imaging biomarkers are required to measure and corroborate myelin restoration. We analyzed myelin water fraction imaging from ReBUILD, a double-blind, randomized placebo-controlled (delayed treatment) remyelination trial, that showed a significant reduction in VEP latency in patients with MS. We focused on brain regions rich in myelin. Fifty MS subjects in two arms underwent 3T MRI at baseline and months 3 and 5. Half of the cohort was randomly assigned to receive treatment from baseline through 3 mo, whereas the other half received treatment from 3 mo to 5 mo post-baseline. We computed myelin water fraction changes occurring in normal-appearing white matter of corpus callosum, optic radiations, and corticospinal tracts. An increase in myelin water fraction was documented in the normal-appearing white matter of the corpus callosum, in correspondence with the administration of the remyelinating treatment clemastine. This study provides direct, biologically validated imaging-based evidence of medically induced myelin repair. Moreover, our work strongly suggests that significant myelin repair occurs outside of lesions. We therefore propose myelin water fraction within the normal-appearing white matter of the corpus callosum as a biomarker for clinical trials looking at remyelination.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether machine learning methods yield more accurate electronic health record (EHR) prediction models compared to traditional regression methods. OBJECTIVE: To compare machine learning and traditional regression models for 10-year mortality prediction using EHR data. DESIGN: Cohort Study SETTING: Veterans Affairs (VA) EHR data PARTICIPANTS: Veterans age >50 with a primary care visit in 2005, divided into separate training and testing cohorts (n=124,360 each). MEASUREMENTS AND ANALYTIC METHODS: The primary outcome was 10-year all-cause mortality. We considered 924 potential predictors across a wide range of EHR data elements including demographics (3), vital signs (9), medication classes (399), disease diagnoses (293), laboratory results (71), and healthcare utilization (149). We compared discrimination (c-statistics), calibration metrics and diagnostic test characteristics (sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value) of machine learning and regression models. RESULTS: Our cohort mean age (SD) was 68.2 (10.5), 93.9% were male; 39.4% died within 10 years. Models yielded testing cohort c-statistics between 0.827 and 0.837. Utilizing all 924 predictors, the Gradient Boosting model yielded the highest c statistic (0.837, 95%CI: 0.835–0.839). The full (unselected) logistic regression model had the highest c-statistic of regression models (0.833, 95%CI: 0.830–0.835) but showed evidence of overfitting. The discrimination of the stepwise selection logistic model (101 predictors) was similar (0.832, 95%CI: 0.830–0.834) with minimal overfitting. All models were well-calibrated and had similar diagnostic test characteristics. LIMITATION: Our results should be confirmed in non-VA EHRs. CONCLUSION: The differences in c-statistic between the best machine learning model (924-predictor Gradient Boosting) and 101-predictor stepwise logistic models for 10-year mortality prediction were modest, suggesting stepwise regression methods continue to be a reasonable method for VA EHR mortality prediction model development.

Despite three decades of effort, ensuring inpatient safety remains elusive. Patients and family members are a potential source of safety observations, but systems gathering these are limited. Our goal was to test a system to gather safety observations from hospitalized patients and their family members via a real-time mobile health tool.We developed a mobile-responsive website for reporting safety observations. We piloted the tool during June 2017-April 2018 on the medical-surgical unit of a children's hospital. Participants were English-speaking family members and patients ≥13 years. We sent a daily text with a website link. We assessed: (1) face validity by comparing observations to incident reporting (IR) criteria and to hospital IRs and (2) associations between the number of safety observations/100 patient-days and participant characteristics using Poisson regression.We enrolled 235 patients (43.8% of 537 reviewed for eligibility), resulting in 8.15 safety reports/100 patient-days, most frequently regarding medications (29% of reports) and communication (20% of reports). Fifty-one (40% of 125) met IR criteria; only one (1.1%) had been reported via the IR system. Latinx participants submitted fewer observations than White participants (3.9 vs. 10.1, p = .002); participants with more prior hospitalizations submitted more observations (p .001). In adjusted analyses, including measures of preference in decision making, and patient activation, the difference between Latinx and White participants diminished substantially (6.4 vs. 11.3, p = .16).We demonstrated the feasibility of real-time patient and family-member technology-enabled safety observation reporting and elicited reports not otherwise identified. Variation in reporting may potentially exacerbate disparities in safety if not addressed.

ImportanceEvidence describing the incidence of severe COVID-19 illness following vaccination and booster with BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, and Ad26.COV2.S vaccines is needed, particularly for high-risk populations.ObjectiveTo describe the incidence of severe COVID-19 illness among a cohort that received vaccination plus a booster vaccine dose.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsRetrospective cohort study of adults receiving care at Veterans Health Administration facilities across the US who received a vaccination series plus 1 booster against SARS-CoV-2, conducted from July 1, 2021, to May 30, 2022. Patients were eligible if they had received a primary care visit in the prior 2 years and had documented receipt of all US Food and Drug Administration–authorized doses of the initial mRNA vaccine or viral vector vaccination series after December 11, 2020, and a subsequent documented booster dose between July 1, 2021, and April 29, 2022. The analytic cohort consisted of 1 610 719 participants.ExposuresReceipt of any combination of mRNA-1273 (Moderna), BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), and Ad26.COV2.S (Janssen/Johnson & Johnson) primary vaccination series and a booster dose.Main Outcomes and MeasuresOutcomes were breakthrough COVID-19 (symptomatic infection), hospitalization with COVID-19 pneumonia and/or death, and hospitalization with severe COVID-19 pneumonia and/or death. A subgroup analysis of nonoverlapping populations included those aged 65 years or older, those with high-risk comorbid conditions, and those with immunocompromising conditions.ResultsOf 1 610 719 participants, 1 100 280 (68.4%) were aged 65 years or older and 132 243 (8.2%) were female; 1 133 785 (70.4%) had high-risk comorbid conditions, 155 995 (9.6%) had immunocompromising conditions, and 1 467 879 (91.1%) received the same type of mRNA vaccine (initial series and booster). Over 24 weeks, 125.0 (95% CI, 123.3-126.8) per 10 000 persons had breakthrough COVID-19, 8.9 (95% CI, 8.5-9.4) per 10 000 persons were hospitalized with COVID-19 pneumonia or died, and 3.4 (95% CI, 3.1-3.7) per 10 000 persons were hospitalized with severe pneumonia or died. For high-risk populations, incidence of hospitalization with COVID-19 pneumonia or death was as follows: aged 65 years or older, 1.9 (95% CI, 1.4-2.6) per 10 000 persons; high-risk comorbid conditions, 6.7 (95% CI, 6.2-7.2) per 10 000 persons; and immunocompromising conditions, 39.6 (95% CI, 36.6-42.9) per 10 000 persons. Subgroup analyses of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 pneumonia or death by time after booster demonstrated similar incidence estimates among those aged 65 years or older and with high-risk comorbid conditions but not among those with immunocompromising conditions.Conclusions and RelevanceIn a US cohort of patients receiving care at Veterans Health Administration facilities during a period of Delta and Omicron variant predominance, there was a low incidence of hospitalization with COVID-19 pneumonia or death following vaccination and booster with any of BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, or Ad26.COV2.S vaccines.

ImportancePatients with atrial fibrillation have a high rate of all-cause mortality that is only partially attributable to vascular outcomes. While the competing risk of death affects expected anticoagulant benefit, guidelines do not account for the competing risk of death.ObjectiveCompare anticoagulant benefit for patients with atrial fibrillation estimated with the CHA2DS2-VASc model vs. a Competing Risk Model that accounts for the competing risk of death and does not assume a consistent growth in treatment benefit over timeDesignSecondary analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs).Setting12 RCTs randomizing patients with atrial fibrillation to oral anticoagulants or either placebo or antiplatelets.Participants7933 adults with non-valvular atrial fibrillation.ExposurePredicted anticoagulant absolute risk reduction (ARR) by guideline-endorsed model (CHA2DS2-VASc) vs. a Competing Risk Model that uses the same inputs as CHA2DS2-VASc but accounts for the competing risk of death and allows for non-linear growth in benefit over time.Main outcome measuresIschemic stroke or systemic embolismResults7933 participants had a median life expectancy of 8 years (IQR 6, 12), determined by comorbidity-adjusted life tables. 43% were randomized to oral anticoagulation (median age 73 years, 36% women). The guideline-endorsed CHA2DS2-VASc model estimated a larger ARR than the Competing Risk Model (median ARR at 3 years, 6.9% vs. 5.2%). ARR differences varied by life expectancies: for those with life expectancies in the highest decile, 3-year ARR difference (CHA2DS2-VASc model – Competing Risk Model 3-year risk) was -1.2% (42% relative underestimation); for those with life expectancies in the lowest decile, 3-year ARR difference was 5.9% (91% relative overestimation).Conclusion and RelevanceAnticoagulants are exceptionally effective at reduced stroke risk. However, anticoagulant benefits were misestimated with CHA2DS2-VASc, which does not account for the competing risk of death nor decelerating treatment benefit over time. Overestimation was most pronounced in patients with the lowest life expectancy and when benefit was estimated over a multi-year horizon.

Background: The impact of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on glycemic metrics in children is uncertain. This study evaluates the effect of the shelter-in-place (SIP) mandate on glycemic metrics in youth with type 1 diabetes (T1D) using continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) in Northern California, United States. Methods: CGM and insulin pump metrics in youth 3-21 years old with T1D at an academic pediatric diabetes center were analyzed retrospectively. Data 2-4 months before (distant pre-SIP), 1 month before (immediate pre-SIP), 1 month after (immediate post-SIP), and 2-4 months after (distant post-SIP) the SIP mandate were compared using paired t-tests, linear regression, and longitudinal analysis using a mixed effects model. Results: Participants (n = 85) had reduced mean glucose (-10.3 ± 4.4 mg/dL, P = 0.009), standard deviation (SD) (-5.0 ± 1.3 mg/dL, P = 0.003), glucose management indicator (-0.2% ± 0.03%, P = 0.004), time above range (TAR) >250 mg/dL (-3.5% ± 1.7%, P = 0.01), and increased time in range (TIR) (+4.7% ± 1.7%, P = 0.0025) between the distant pre-SIP and distant post-SIP periods. Relationships were maintained using a mixed effects model, when controlling for other demographic variables. There was improvement in SD, TAR 180-250 mg/dL, and TIR for participants with private insurance, but changes in the opposite direction for participants with public insurance. Conclusions: Improvement in CGM metrics in youth with T1D during the COVID-19 pandemic suggests that diabetes management can be maintained in the face of sudden changes to daily living. Youth with public insurance deserve more attention in research and clinical practice.

Even low-acuity patients suffer from disrupted sleep in the hospital in part due to routine overnight vital sign (VS) checks. When invasive monitoring is not needed, vital sign monitoring devices (VSMDs) similar to consumer-grade health monitors may play a role in promoting sleep, which can aid healing and recovery.We provided one VSMD to neuroscience ward patients during their hospital stays and used surveys to assess patient and nurse attitudes toward the device and the impact of the device on patient comfort. We also compared VSMD-streamed vS data to nurse-recorded vS data in the chart to evaluate the consistency of data streaming and data concordance between the device and nurse-collected vital sign values.21 patients and 15 nurses enrolled. Overall, patients and nurses responded positively to the device and patients preferred wearing the device to receiving manual vital checks overnight. The most common device-related cause of sleep disruption per patients was device weight (29%). Device vS were concordant with nurse vS on average but there was significant variance in agreement between nurse and device values.Patients and nurses feel positively about the use of VSMDs and their use in the hospital. The device we tested may be limited in its sleep promotion by its weight and patient comfort assessment. Further research is needed to assess the precision of the device in measuring vital signs when used in a clinical setting. Future studies should compare VSMD models and assess their impacts on patient sleep in the absence of manual vS checks overnight.Funding provided by the SaraEvan Williams Foundation Endowed Neurohospitalist Chair at UCSF.

Cheung-Bearelly aesthesiometers can deliver buckling-force stimuli to the laryngopharynx and objectively evaluate sensation. Ambiguity surrounds the transformation of stimuli in the laryngopharyngeal environment. This study aims to evaluate the effect of aesthesiometer size, saliva, successive compressions, and angles of tissue contact on stimulus force delivered.An ex vivo stimulus delivery device was constructed to measure the buckling force of aesthesiometers. Dry and saliva-saturated aesthesiometers (6-0, 5-0, 4.5-0, and 4-0) were each compressed six times on cadaveric buccal mucosa on an electronic balance. The force for each compression was recorded at 0, 15, 30, 45, and 60° from the vertical plane. 240 compressions were analyzed utilizing a mixed-effects statistical model.The mean force delivered by the 6-0, 5-0, 4.5-0, and 4-0 aesthesiometers were 0.017, 0.082, 0.120, and 0.268 g respectively (p 0.001). Mean force significantly reduced for the 4-0 aesthesiometer at 30° (p = 0.003) and 60° (p = 0.001). Force decreased by the 4th compression for the 5-0 aesthesiometer (p = 0.004) and after one compression for the 4.5-0 (p = 0.004) and 4-0 (p 0.001) aesthesiometer. By the 4th compression, the 4.5-0 aesthesiometer was indistinguishable (p 0.05) from the 5-0 aesthesiometer. The effect of saliva was insignificant (p = 0.83).Aesthesiometers can deliver discrete buckling-force stimuli to evaluate laryngopharynx sensory function. Up to 60° (15° for 4-0 aesthesiometer) deviation from orthogonal tissue contact and salivary forces do not significantly alter force delivered. 4.5-0 aesthesiometers should be exchanged after three compressions. For all other aesthesiometers, force reduction after six compressions is likely clinically insignificant given current laryngopharyngeal sensory testing protocols.N/A Ex Vivo Laboratory Design Laryngoscope, 2022.

Quantitative swallowing displacement kinematics evolve in patients treated for oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). We aimed to longitudinally assess these measurements and correlate them with functional swallowing outcomes.A retrospective review was conducted on patients with OPSCC treated with definitive (chemo)radiation ([C]RT) or surgery with adjuvant (chemo)radiation (S-[C]RT) who completed at least two videofluoroscopic swallow studies (VFSS). Longitudinal analysis was accomplished via mixed-effects logistic regression for the Functional Oral Intake Scale (FOIS), and Penetration Aspiration Scale (PAS), and mixed-effects linear regression for kinematic measures. Spearman's correlation was conducted between changes in FOIS/PAS and kinematic measures.Ninety-seven patients (76 males; mean age 61) completed 245 VFSS studies. A total of 94% had human papillomavirus (HPV)/p16 positive OPSCC and 74% were T0-T2. Sixty-four patients underwent [C]RT while 33 patients underwent S-[C]RT. After treatment, posterior pharyngeal wall at hold (PPWhold) increased 3.2 standard deviation (SD) between 0 and 6 months (p 0.001), then decreased 2.2 SD between 6 and 12 months (p 0.001) and did not return to baseline. Hyoid-to-larynx (HL) (p = 0.046) and maximal hyoid displacement (Hmax) + HL (p = 0.042) increased between 6 and 12 months. Hmax (p = 0.020) and Hmax + HL (p 0.001) decreased between 12-24 months beyond baseline values. The decrease in HL and increase in PPWhold (p 0.05) correlated with an increase in PAS. From baseline, increased pharyngeal constriction ratio correlated with decreased FOIS and PPWhold (p 0.05).Quantitative swallowing kinematic measures can effectively track changes in swallowing physiology. Increased PPWhold and restricted hyolaryngeal movement were seen in patients with OPSCC after treatment and correlated with a change in swallowing outcome, emphasizing the need for serial VFSS monitoring and targeted intervention.3 Laryngoscope, 2022.

Functional outcomes during non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treatment are critically important to older adults. Yet, data on physical function and which measures best capture functional change remain limited.This multisite, mixed methods cohort study recruited adults ≥65 years with advanced NSCLC starting systemic treatment (i.e., chemotherapy, immunotherapy, and/or targeted therapy) with non-curative intent. Participants underwent serial geriatric assessments prior to starting treatment and at one, two, four, and six months, which included the Karnofsky Performance Scale (KPS, range: 0-100%), instrumental activities of daily living (IADL, range: 0-14), European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Physical Functioning subscale (EORTC QLQ-C30 PF, range: 0-100), and Life-Space Assessment (LSA, range: 0-120). For all measures, higher scores represent better functioning. In a qualitative substudy, 20 patients completed semi-structured interviews prior to starting treatment and at two and six months to explore how treatment affected their daily functioning. We created joint displays for each interview participant that integrated their longitudinal KPS, IADL, EORTC QLQ-C30 PF, and LSA scores with patient quotes describing their function.Among 87 patients, median age was 73 years (range 65-96). Mean pretreatment KPS score was 79% (standard deviation [SD] 13), EORTC QLQ-C30 PF was 69 (SD 23), and LSA was 67 (SD 28); median IADL was 13 (interquartile range [IQR] 10-14). At two months after treatment initiation, 70% of patients experienced functional decline on at least one measure, with only 13% of these patients recovering at six months. At two and six months, decline in LSA was the most common (48% and 35%, respectively). Joint displays revealed heterogeneity in how well each quantitative measure of physical function captured the qualitative patient experience.Functional decline during NSCLC treatment is common among older adults. LSA is a useful measure to detect subtle functional decline that may be missed by other measures. Given heterogeneity in how well each quantitative measure captures changes in physical function, there is value to including more than one functional measure in geriatric oncology research studies.

Understanding how the COVID-19 pandemic affected people's desire to avoid pregnancy is essential for interpreting the pandemic's associations with access to reproductive health care and reproductive autonomy. Early research is largely cross-sectional and relies on people's own evaluations of how their desires changed.To investigate longitudinal changes in pregnancy desires during the year before and the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.In this cohort study, participants reported their pregnancy preferences at baseline and quarterly for up to 18 months between March 2019 and March 2021. An interrupted time series analysis with mixed-effects segmented linear regression was used to examine population-averaged time trends. People were recruited from 7 primary and reproductive health care facilities in Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. Participants were sexually active, pregnancy-capable people aged 15 to 34 years who were not pregnant or sterilized. Data analysis was performed from September 2021 to January 2022.Continuous time, with knots at the onset of the first (July 1, 2020, summer surge) and second (November 1, 2020, fall surge) COVID-19 cases surges in the Southwest.Preferences around potential pregnancy in the next 3 months, measured using the validated Desire to Avoid Pregnancy (DAP) scale (range, 0-4, with 4 indicating a higher desire to avoid pregnancy).The 627 participants in the analytical sample had a mean (SD) age of 24.9 (4.9) years; 320 (51.0%) identified as Latinx and 180 (28.7%) as White. Over the year before the first case surge in the US Southwest in summer 2020, population-averaged DAP scores decreased steadily over time (-0.06 point per quarter; 95% CI, -0.07 to -0.04 point per quarter; P .001). During the summer 2020 surge, DAP scores stopped declining (0.05 point per quarter; 95% CI, -0.03 to 0.13 point per quarter; change in slope, P .001). During the fall 2020 surge, however, DAP scores declined again at -0.11 point per quarter (95% CI, -0.26 to 0.04 point per quarter; change in slope, P = .10). Participants aged 15 to 24 years and those who were nulliparous and primiparous experienced greater declines in DAP score before the summer surge, and greater reversals of decline between summer and fall 2020, than did those who were aged 25 to 34 years and multiparous.These findings suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic onset was associated with the stalling of a prior trend toward greater desire for pregnancy over time, particularly for people earlier in their reproductive lives.

ImportanceFrailty is associated with reduced physiological reserve, lack of independence, and depression and may be salient for identifying older adults at increased risk of suicide attempt.ObjectivesTo examine the association between frailty and risk of suicide attempt and how risk differs based on components of frailty.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis nationwide cohort study integrated databases from the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) inpatient and outpatient health care services, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services data, and national suicide data. Participants included all US veterans aged 65 years or older who received care at VA medical centers from October 1, 2011, to September 30, 2013. Data were analyzed from April 20, 2021, to May 31, 2022.ExposuresFrailty, defined based on a validated cumulative-deficit frailty index measured using electronic health data and categorized into 5 levels: nonfrailty, prefrailty, mild frailty, moderate frailty, and severe frailty.Main Outcomes and MeasuresThe main outcome was suicide attempts through December 31, 2017, provided by the national Suicide Prevention Applications Network (nonfatal attempts) and Mortality Data Repository (fatal attempts). Frailty level and components of the frailty index (morbidity, function, sensory loss, cognition and mood, and other) were assessed as potential factors associated with suicide attempt.ResultsThe study population of 2 858 876 participants included 8955 (0.3%) who attempted suicide over 6 years. Among all participants, the mean (SD) age was 75.4 (8.1) years; 97.7% were men, 2.3% were women, 0.6% were Hispanic, 9.0% were non-Hispanic Black, 87.8% were non-Hispanic White, and 2.6% had other or unknown race and ethnicity. Compared with patients without frailty, risk of suicide attempt was uniformly higher among patients with prefrailty to severe frailty, with adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) of 1.34 (95% CI, 1.27-1.42; P P P P Conclusions and RelevanceThis cohort study found that among US veterans aged 65 years or older, frailty was associated with increased risk of suicide attempts and lower levels of frailty were associated with greater risk of suicide death. Screening and involvement of supportive services across the spectrum of frailty appear to be needed to help reduce risk of suicide attempts.

Linking data from the National Neighborhood Data Archive (NaNDA) to the 2006-2018 Health and Retirement Study (N=22,245), we fit linear mixed models to assess which of 22 built and social neighborhood environment variables predicted grip strength, a measure of total-body muscle strength. Among 22,245 respondents (mean age=63 years, SD=9.2) with up to 4 grip strength measures, neighborhood physical disorder (B= -0.25 kg, 95% CI= -0.37,-0.13), number of parks (B= 0.05 kg, 95% CI= 0.01, 0.10), number of gyms/fitness centers (B=-0.44 kg, 95% CI= -0.82, -0.07), proportion of highly developed land (B=-2.06 kg, 95% CI=-4.06, -0.07), and % urban (B=-0.66 kg, 95% CI=-1.27, -0.05) were associated with grip strength level after adjustment. No social neighborhood variables were associated with grip strength. Although preliminary, findings suggest that highly developed urbanized land may be a barrier to maintaining muscle strength in later life, but resources such as parks are associated with better outcomes.

Increasing numbers of older adults are reentering the community following incarceration (i.e., reentry). Yet, their risk of developing dementia and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is unknown. We leveraged a national cohort of veterans who experienced reentry at age ≥ 65 years (N=5,920) and compared their risk of dementia or MCI to an age- and sex-matched never incarcerated sample (N=29,600). Those in the reentry sample were incarcerated for ≤10 consecutive years, experienced reentry between 10/01/2012 and 9/30/2018, and did not have a pre-incarceration MCI or dementia diagnosis per VA and CMS healthcare records (N=5,920). Fine-Gray models, controlling for race and pre-incarceration chronic conditions, serious mental illness, traumatic brain injury, and posttraumatic stress disorder, derived hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs). Samples were 99% male with average age 70 (±4.3) years. Reentry adults had a higher proportion of non-Whites (29% vs. 17%; p< 0.001) and more chronic conditions (2.1[±1.8] vs. 1.6[±1.6] p< 0.001). MCI incidence did not differ between reentry and never incarcerated groups (3.1% vs. 2.6%; HR=1.03; 95%CI 0.86-1.24). However, risk of any dementia was higher in reentry older adults (7.2% vs. 5.0%; HR=1.27; 95%CI 1.12, 1.44), as was risk of specific subtypes, e.g., vascular dementia (1.9% vs. 1.2%; HR=1.37; 95% CI 1.06-1.75) and frontotemporal dementia (0.2% vs. 0.1%; HR=2.3; 95% CI 1.2, 4.3). Those reentering the community in late life following incarceration may be a group that is especially at risk of developing dementia. These findings raise awareness of the need for appropriate transition planning for this vulnerable group.

ObjectiveTo develop and validate the Social Frailty Index, a summary measure of social risk in older adults, and determine its ability to risk stratify beyond traditional medical risk modelsDesignPrognostic model development and validation using demographics and a comprehensive inventory of social characteristicsSettingThe Health and Retirement Study, a longitudinal, nationally representative survey of U.S. adults >50 years. We developed the model using the 2010 wave and validated it using the 2012 wave; there was no overlap between 2010 and 2012 respondents.Participants8250 adults aged ≥65 years who completed the Psychosocial and Lifestyle Questionnaire (4302 in the 2010 development cohort, 3948 in the 2012 validation cohort).Main exposureDemographic and social characteristicsMain outcome4-year mortalityResultsWithin 4 years of the baseline interview, 22% of study participants in both the development and validation cohort had died. Drawn from 183 possible predictors, the final model included age, gender, and 8 social predictors: lacking neighborhood cleanliness, low perceived control over financial situation, having children and meeting with them less than yearly, not working for pay, less active with children (grandchildren, neighborhood, nieces/nephews), no volunteering or charity work, feeling isolated from others, being treated with less courtesy or respect. In the validation cohort, the model discriminated well (c-statistic 0.73) and was strongly associated with 4-year mortality (7.3% in the lowest decile, 59.9% in the highest decile). Also, the Social Frailty Index meaningfully risk-stratified participants beyond the Charlson score, a commonly used medical comorbidity index, and the Lee Index score, a comorbidity and function model.ConclusionThis prognostic index, which includes age, gender, and 8 social characteristics, accurately risk stratifies older adults and refines the prediction of commonly used comorbidity- and function-based risk models.

The objective of this study was to determine the association of traumatic brain injury (TBI) with mortality in military veterans and whether this association differs as a function of TBI severity, timing, and cause of death. This national cohort study used U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs' (VA) data of patients 18 years and older with TBI diagnoses (N = 213,290) and 1:1 propensity-matched comparison random sample of patients without TBI (N = 213,290). The main outcome measure was mortality within 6 months of TBI diagnosis and longer-term (after 6 months). Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine risk of all-cause mortality according to TBI severity and Fine-Gray proportional hazards regression to examine time to cause-specific mortality, accounting for competing risk of other deaths. For patients with moderate-to-severe TBI (compared with no TBI), hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality were highest within first 6 months of injury (fully-adjusted HR: 2.42, 95% CI: 2.32-2.53); for mild TBIs, HRs for mortality were lower and relatively constant over time (fully-adjusted HR within first 6 months: 1.33, 95% CI: 1.26-1.39). Veterans with mild and moderate-to-severe TBI had higher risk of future death over short term for 9 out 10 of the U.S. leading causes of death, with only unintentional injury, stroke, and suicide showing differences by TBI severity. Associations attenuated significantly from within to after 6 months TBI diagnosis. These findings indicate that adults with TBI are at increased risk of majority of leading causes of death, with differential risk by TBI severity and timing of death.

People with dementia (PWD) are at high risk for hospice disenrollment, yet little is known about patterns of disenrollment among the growing number of hospice enrollees with dementia.Retrospective, observational cohort study of 100% Medicare beneficiaries with dementia aged 65 and older enrolled in the Medicare Hospice Benefit between July 2012 and December 2017. Outcome measures included hospice-initiated disenrollment for patients whose rate of decline ceased to meet the Medicare hospice eligibility guideline of "expected death within 6 months" (extended prognosis) and patient-initiated disenrollment (revocation). Hospice, regional, and patient risk factors and variation were assessed with multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression models.Among 867,695 hospice enrollees with dementia, 70,945 (8.2%) were disenrolled due to extended prognosis and 43,133 (5.0%) revoked within 1-year of their index admission. There was substantial variation in hospice provider disenrollment due to extended prognosis (10th-90th percentile 4.5%-14.6%, adjusted median odds ratio (MOR) 1.86, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.82, 1.91) and revocation (10th-90th percentile 2.5%-10.1%, MOR 2.09, 95% CI 2.03, 2.14). Among hospital referral regions (HRR), there was more variation in revocation (10th-90th percentile 3.5%-7.6%, MOR 1.4, 95% CI 1.34, 1.47) than extended prognosis (10th-90th percentile 7.0%-9.5%, MOR 1.23, 95% CI 1.18, 1.27), with much higher revocation rates noted in HRRs located in the Southeast and Southern California. A number of patient and hospice characteristics were associated with higher odds of both types of disenrollment (younger age, female sex, minoritized race and ethnicity, Medicaid dual eligibility, Medicare Part C enrollment), while some were associated with revocation only (more comorbidities, newer, smaller, and for-profit hospices).In this nationally representative study of hospice enrollees with dementia, hospice disenrollment varied by type of hospice, geographic region, and patient characteristics including age, sex, race, and ethnicity. These findings raise important questions about whether and how the Medicare Hospice Benefit could be adapted to reduce disparities and better support PWD.

Many clinical and financial decisions for older adults depend on the future risk of disability and mortality. Prognostic tools for long-term disability risk in a general population are lacking. We aimed to create a comprehensive prognostic tool that predicts the risk of mortality, of activities of daily living (ADL) disability, and walking disability simultaneously using the same set of variables.We conducted a longitudinal analysis of the nationally-representative Health and Retirement Study (HRS). We included community-dwelling adults aged ≥70 years who completed a core interview in the 2000 wave of HRS, with follow-up through 2018. We evaluated 40 predictors encompassing demographics, diseases, physical functioning, and instrumental ADLs. We applied novel methods to optimize three models simultaneously while prioritizing variables that take less time to ascertain during backward stepwise elimination. The death prediction model used Cox regression and both the models for walking disability and for ADL disability used Fine and Gray competing-risk regression. We examined calibration plots and generated optimism-corrected statistics of discrimination using bootstrapping. To simulate unavailable patient data, we also evaluated models excluding one or two variables from the final model.In 6646 HRS participants, 2662 developed walking disability, 3570 developed ADL disability, and 5689 died during a median follow-up of 9.5 years. The final prognostic tool had 16 variables. The optimism-corrected integrated area under the curve (iAUC) was 0.799 for mortality, 0.685 for walking disability, and 0.703 for ADL disability. At each percentile of predicted mortality risk, there was a substantial spread in the predicted risks of walking disability and ADL disability. Discrimination and calibration remained good even when missing one or two predictors from the model. This model is now available on ePrognosis (https://eprognosis.ucsf.edu/alexlee.php) CONCLUSIONS: Given the variability in disability risk for people with similar mortality risks, using individualized risks of disabilities may inform clinical and financial decisions for older adults.

IMPORTANCE: The racial and ethnic diversity of the US, including among patients receiving their care at the Veterans Health Administration (VHA), is increasing. Dementia is a significant public health challenge and may have greater incidence among older adults from underrepresented racial and ethnic minority groups. OBJECTIVE: To determine dementia incidence across 5 racial and ethnic groups and by US geographical region within a large, diverse, national cohort of older veterans who received care in the largest integrated health care system in the US. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective cohort study within the VHA of a random sample (5% sample selected for each fiscal year) of 1 869 090 participants aged 55 years or older evaluated from October 1, 1999, to September 30, 2019 (the date of final follow-up). EXPOSURES: Self-reported racial and ethnic data were obtained from the National Patient Care Database. US region was determined using Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) regions from residential zip codes. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Incident diagnosis of dementia (9th and 10th editions of the International Classification of Diseases). Fine-Gray proportional hazards models were used to examine time to diagnosis, with age as the time scale and accounting for competing risk of death. RESULTS: Among the 1 869 090 study participants (mean age, 69.4 [SD, 7.9] years; 42 870 women [2%]; 6865 American Indian or Alaska Native [0.4%], 9391 Asian [0.5%], 176 795 Black [9.5%], 20 663 Hispanic [1.0%], and 1 655 376 White [88.6%]), 13% received a diagnosis of dementia over a mean follow-up of 10.1 years. Age-adjusted incidence of dementia per 1000 person-years was 14.2 (95% CI, 13.3-15.1) for American Indian or Alaska Native participants, 12.4 (95% CI, 11.7-13.1) for Asian participants, 19.4 (95% CI, 19.2-19.6) for Black participants, 20.7 (95% CI, 20.1-21.3) for Hispanic participants, and 11.5 (95% CI, 11.4-11.6) for White participants. Compared with White participants, the fully adjusted hazard ratios were 1.05 (95% CI, 0.98-1.13) for American Indian or Alaska Native participants, 1.20 (95% CI, 1.13-1.28) for Asian participants, 1.54 (95% CI, 1.51-1.57) for Black participants, and 1.92 (95% CI, 1.82-2.02) for Hispanic participants. Across most US regions, age-adjusted dementia incidence rates were highest for Black and Hispanic participants, with rates similar among American Indian or Alaska Native, Asian, and White participants. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among older adults who received care at VHA medical centers, there were significant differences in dementia incidence based on race and ethnicity. Further research is needed to understand the mechanisms responsible for these differences.

To evaluate the association of frailty with surgical outcomes following pelvic organ prolapse (POP) surgery in Medicare beneficiaries.This is a retrospective cohort study of female Medicare beneficiaries ≥65 years of age undergoing POP surgery between 2014 and 2016. Primary outcomes were hospital length-of-stay (LOS) ≥3 days, 30-day post-operative complications (excluding urinary tract infections (UTI)), and 30-day UTI. Frailty was quantified using the validated Claims-Based Frailty Index (CFI) and categorized into not frail (CFI0.15), pre-frail (0.15≤CFI0.25), mildly frail (0.25≤CFI0.35), and moderately to severely frail (0.35≤CFI≤1).Among the 107,890 women included (mean age, 73.3±6 years), 91.3% were White as and 4.3% were classified as mildly or moderately to severely frail. Rates of hospital LOS≥3 days and 30-day UTI increased over 7-fold and rates of 30-day complications increased over 3-fold as CFI increased from not frail to moderately to severely frail (all P values.001). Compared to women who were not frail, women who were moderately to severely frail demonstrated an increased relative risk of hospital LOS≥3 days (aRR 3.1 [95% CI 2.5-3.8,P.001]), 30-day complications (aRR 2.8 [95% CI 2.2-3.6, P.001]), and 30-day UTI (aRR 2.5 [95% CI 2.2-3.0, P.001]).Among Medicare beneficiaries undergoing POP surgery in the United States, frailty is strongly associated with increased risk of prolonged hospital stay and 30-day complications. Frailty should be considered in the preoperative assessment for POP surgeries to improve patient outcomes.

BACKGROUND: The effects of extracranial hemorrhage (ECH), or bleeding outside the brain, are often considered transient. Yet there are few data on the long-term and functional consequences of ECH. OBJECTIVE: Define the association of ECH hospitalization with functional independence and survival in a nationally representative cohort of older adults. DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study. SETTING: Data from the Health and Retirement Study from 1995 to 2016, a nationally representative, biennial survey of older adults. PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged 66 and above with Medicare linkage and at least 12 months of continuous Medicare Part A and B enrollment. EXPOSURE: Hospitalization for ECH. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Adjusted odds ratios and predicted likelihood of independence in all activities of daily living (ADLs), independence in all instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) and extended nursing home stay. Adjusted hazard ratio and predicted likelihood for survival. RESULTS: In a cohort of 6719 subjects (mean age 77, 59% women) with average follow-up time of 8.3 years (55,767 person-years), 736 (11%) were hospitalized for ECH. ECH was associated with a 15% increase in ADL disability, 15% increase in IADL disability, 8% increase in nursing home stays, and 4% increase in mortality. After ECH, subjects became disabled and died at the same annual rate as pre-ECH but never recovered to pre-ECH levels of function. CONCLUSIONS: Hospitalization for ECH was associated with significant and durable declines in independence and survival. Clinical and research efforts should incorporate the long-term harms of ECH into decision-making and strategies to mitigate these effects.

Infant outcomes after maternal severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection are not well described. In a prospective US registry of 263 infants, maternal SARS-CoV-2 status was not associated with birth weight, difficulty breathing, apnea, or upper or lower respiratory infection through 8 weeks of age.

Matching is a common method of adjusting for confounding in observational studies. Studies in rare diseases usually include small numbers of exposed subjects, but the performance of matching methods in such cases has not been evaluated thoroughly. In this study, we compare the performance of several matching methods when number of exposed subjects is small. We used Monte Carlo simulations to compare the following methods: Propensity score matching (PSM) with greedy or optimal algorithm, Mahalanobis distance matching, and mixture of PSM and exact matching. We performed the comparisons in datasets with six continuous and six binary variables, with varying effect size on group assignment and outcome. In each case, there were 1,500 unexposed subjects and a varying number of exposed: N = 25, 50, 100, 150, 200, 250, or 300. The probability of outcome in unexposed subjects was set to 5% (rare), 20% (common), or 50% (frequent). We compared the methods based on the bias of estimate of risk difference, coverage of 95% confidence intervals for risk difference, and balance of covariates. We observed a difference in performance of matching methods in very small samples (N = 25-50) and in moderately small samples (N = 100-300). Our study showed that PSM performs better than other matching methods when number of exposed subjects is small, but the matching algorithm and the matching ratio should be considered carefully. We recommend using PSM with optimal algorithm and one-to-five matching ratio in very small samples, and PSM matching with any algorithm and one-to-one matching in moderately small samples.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES Prognostic indices rarely include cognition. We determined if a comprehensive cognitive screen or brief individual items were associated with improved mortality predictions of a widely used prognostic index. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS The National Social Life Health and Aging Project Wave 2, a nationally representative, cross-sectional, in-home survey conducted in 2010 to 2011 on 3,199 community-dwelling adults aged 60 to 99 years. MEASUREMENTS Cognition was measured using a Survey-Adapted Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA-SA) grouped into three screened categories: screen normal (≥24 points), screen positive for mild cognitive impairment (18-23 points), and screen positive for dementia (