32 results on '"Vuuren, Detlef P. van"'
Search Results
2. High-resolution assessment of global technical and economic hydropower potential
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Gernaat, David E. H. J., Bogaart, Patrick W., Vuuren, Detlef P. van, Biemans, Hester, and Niessink, Robin
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- 2017
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3. Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2 °C scenarios with historically observed rates of change
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van Sluisveld, Mariësse A.E., Harmsen, J.H.M., Bauer, Nico, McCollum, David L., Riahi, Keywan, Tavoni, Massimo, Vuuren, Detlef P. van, Wilson, Charlie, and Zwaan, Bob van der
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- 2015
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4. Extending shared socio-economic pathways for pesticide use in Europe: Pest-Agri-SSPs
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Nagesh, Poornima, Edelenbosch, Oreane Y., Dekker, Stefan C., Boer, Hugo J. de, Mitter, Hermine, Vuuren, Detlef P. van, Global Ecohydrology and Sustainability, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Environmental Sciences, Global Ecohydrology and Sustainability, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, and Environmental Sciences
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Agriculture and food systems ,Technology ,agriculture and food systems ,Environmental Engineering ,General Medicine ,pest damage ,Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law ,farm characteristics ,socioeconomic ,Socioeconomic ,Policy ,Pest damage ,technology ,Farm characteristics ,Waste Management and Disposal ,policy - Abstract
While pesticides are essential to agriculture and food systems to sustain current production levels, they also lead to significant environmental impacts. The use of pesticides is constantly increasing globally, driven mainly by a further intensification of agriculture, despite stricter regulations and higher pesticide effectiveness. To further the understanding of future pesticide use and make informed farm-to-policy decisions, we developed Pesticide Agricultural Shared Socio-economic Pathways (Pest-AgriSSPs) in six steps. The Pest-Agri-SSPs are developed based on an extensive literature review and expert feedback approach considering significant climate and socio-economic drivers from farm to continental scale in combination with multiple actors impacting them. In literature, pesticide use is associated with farmer behaviour and practices, pest damage, technique and efficiency of pesticide application, agricultural policy and agriculture demand and production. Here, we developed PestAgri-SSPs upon this understanding of pesticide use drivers and relating them to possible agriculture development as described by the Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems (Eur-Agri-SSPs).The Pest-AgriSSPs are developed to explore European pesticide use in five scenarios representing low to high challenges to mitigation and adaptation up to 2050. The most sustainable scenario (Pest-Agri-SSP1) shows a decrease in pesticide use owing to sustainable agricultural practices, technological advances and better implementation of agricultural policies. On the contrary, the Pest-Agri-SSP3 and Pest-Agri-SSP4 show a higher increase in pesticide use resulting from higher challenges from pest pressure, resource depletion and relaxed agricultural policies. Pest-Agri-SSP2 presents a stabilised pesticide use resulting from stricter policies and slow transitions by farmers to sustainable agricultural practices. At the same time, pest pressure, climate change and food demand pose serious challenges. Pest-Agri-SSP5 shows a decrease in pesticide use for most drivers, influenced mainly by rapid technological development and sustainable agricultural practices. However, Pest-Agri-SSP5 also presents a relatively low rise in pesticide use driven by agricultural demand, production, and climate change. Our results highlight the need for a holistic approach to tackle pesticide use, considering the identified drivers and future developments. The storylines and qualitative assessment provide a platform to make quantitative assumptions for numerical modelling and evaluating policy targets.
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- 2023
5. Current lifestyles in the context of future climate targets: analysis of long-term scenarios and consumer segments for residential and transport
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Berg, Nicole J van den, Hof, Andries F, Timmer, Vanessa J, Vuuren, Detlef P van, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Environmental Sciences, Innovation Studies, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Environmental Sciences, and Innovation Studies
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Atmospheric Science ,climate change ,consumption patterns ,consumer segmentation ,scenarios ,integrated assessment ,Geology ,lifestyles ,behaviour change ,Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous) ,Earth-Surface Processes ,General Environmental Science ,Food Science - Abstract
The carbon emissions of individuals strongly depend on their lifestyle, both between and within regions. Therefore, lifestyle changes could have a significant potential for climate change mitigation. This potential is not fully explored in long-term scenarios, as the representation of behaviour change and consumer heterogeneity in these scenarios is limited. We explore the impact and feasibility of lifestyle and behaviour changes in achieving climate targets by analysing current per-capita emissions of transport and residential sectors for different regions and consumer segments within one of the regions, namely Japan. We compare these static snapshots to changes in per-capita emissions from consumption and technology changes in long-term mitigation scenarios. The analysis shows less need for reliance on technological solutions if consumption patterns become more sustainable. Furthermore, a large share of Japanese consumers is characterised by consumption patterns consistent with those in scenarios that achieve ambitious climate targets, especially regarding transport. The varied lifestyles highlight the importance of representing consumer heterogeneity in models and further analyses.
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- 2022
6. How climate metrics affect global mitigation strategies and costs: a multi-model study
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Harmsen, Mathijs J. H. M., van den Berg, Maarten, Krey, Volker, Luderer, Gunnar, Marcucci, Adriana, Strefler, Jessica, and Vuuren, Detlef P. Van
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- 2016
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7. Quantifying synergies and trade-offs in the global water-land-food-climate nexus using a multi-model scenario approach
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Doelman, Jonathan C, Beier, Felicitas D, Stehfest, Elke, Bodirsky, Benjamin L, Beusen, Arthur H W, Humpenöder, Florian, Mishra, Abhijeet, Popp, Alexander, Vuuren, Detlef P van, Vos, Lotte de, Weindl, Isabelle, Zeist, Willem-Jan van, Kram, Tom, Environmental Sciences, Geochemistry, Dep Aardwetenschappen, Environmental Sciences, Geochemistry, and Dep Aardwetenschappen
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nitrogen budget ,Water and Food ,Sustainability and the Environment ,333.7 Landflächen, Naturräume für Freizeit und Erholung, Naturreservate, Energie ,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment ,Environmental and Occupational Health ,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ,Water en Voedsel ,food security ,water use ,climate change mitigation ,Environmental Science(all) ,ddc:333 ,integrated assessment ,International Policy ,Renewable Energy ,Public Health ,Internationaal Beleid ,nexus ,General Environmental Science ,biodiversity - Abstract
The human-earth system is confronted with the challenge of providing a range of resources for a growing and more prosperous world population while simultaneously reducing environmental degradation. The sustainable development goals and the planetary boundaries define targets to manage this challenge. Many of these are linked to the land system, such as biodiversity, water, food, nutrients and climate, and are strongly interconnected. A key question is how measures can be designed in the context of multi-dimensional sustainability targets to exploit synergies. To address this, a nexus approach is adopted that acknowledges the interconnectedness between the important sub-systems water, land, food, and climate. This study quantifies synergies and trade-offs from ambitious interventions in different components of this water-land-fod-climate nexus at the global scale. For this purpose, a set of six harmonized scenarios is simulated with the model of agricultural production and its impact on the environment and Integrated model to assess the global environment models. The multi-model approach improves robustness of the results while shedding light on variations coming from different modelling approaches. Our results show that measures in the food component towards healthy diets with low meat consumption have synergies with all other nexus dimensions: Increased natural land improving terrestrial biodiversity (+4% to +8%), lower greenhouse gas emissions from land (−45% to −58%), reduced irrigation water withdrawals to protect or restore hydrological environmental flows (−3% to −24%), and reductions in nitrogen surpluses (−23% to −35%). Climate mitigation measures in line with the Paris Agreement have trade-offs with the water and food components of the nexus, as they adversely affect irrigation water withdrawals (+5% to +30% in 2050 compared to reference scenario) and food prices (+1% to +20%). The analysis of a scenario combining all measures reveals how certain measures are in conflict while others reinforce each other. This study provides an example of a nexus approach to scenario analysis providing input to the next generation of pathways aiming to achieve multiple dimensions of sustainable development. SHAPE Horizon 2020 Framework Programmehttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010661 Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelthttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100007636
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- 2022
8. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: summary for Policymakers
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Coninck, H.C. de and Vuuren, Detlef P. van
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Environmental Sciences - Abstract
Contains fulltext : 248582.pdf (Author’s version postprint ) (Open Access) 3676 p.
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- 2022
9. Global projections for anthropogenic reactive nitrogen emissions to the atmosphere: an assessment of scenarios in the scientific literature
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Vuuren, Detlef P van, Bouwman, Lex F, Smith, Steven J, and Dentener, Frank
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- 2011
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10. Can global models provide insights into regional mitigation strategies? A diagnostic model comparison study of bioenergy in Brazil
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Köberle, Alexandre C, primary, Daioglou, Vassilis, additional, Rochedo, Pedro, additional, Lucena, André F. P., additional, Szklo, Alexandre, additional, Fujimori, Shinichiro, additional, Brunelle, Thierry, additional, Kato, Etsushi, additional, Kitous, Alban, additional, Vuuren, Detlef P. van, additional, and Schaeffer, Roberto, additional
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- 2021
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11. Efficiency improvement and technology choice for energy and emission reductions of the residential sector
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Daioglou, Vassilis, Mikropoulos, Efstratios, Gernaat, David, Vuuren, Detlef P. van, Environmental Sciences, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Environmental Sciences, and Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change
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Sustainability and the Environment ,Monitoring ,Policy and Law ,Renovation ,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment ,Mechanical Engineering ,Energy Engineering and Power Technology ,Efficiency ,Building and Construction ,Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law ,Pollution ,Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering ,Management ,Climate change mitigation ,Fuel Technology ,General Energy ,Energy(all) ,Modelling and Simulation ,Integrated assessment model ,Residential energy ,Renewable Energy ,Buildings ,Electrical and Electronic Engineering ,Civil and Structural Engineering - Abstract
The residential sector currently accounts for one fifth of global energy use and corresponding greenhouse gas emissions, largely driven by increasing demand for space heating and cooling. Climate change mitigation action requires these to reduce, but the exact decarbonization strategies and their heterogeneity is unclear. We use a regional recursive dynamic energy system model with an explicit representation of residential energy use and building stocks to explore the contribution of this sector in long-term decarbonization pathways. The projections show that in a 2˚C scenario, global heating demand is expected to decrease from current levels by 18% and 64% by 2050 and 2100, respectively. However, due to increasing affluence in warmer regions, cooling demand is expected to increase by 112% and 201% respectively. Yet, direct residential emissions are almost eliminated by 2100. This is achieved by combining increased envelope efficiency and advanced heating technologies in a synergistic manner, where the adoption of high efficiency heating and cooling reduces the need for increased insulation, and vice versa. By combining these measures with rooftop PV, the net energy demand of many household types approaches zero. The exact residential sector strategies vary across different regions, depending on local climate, socio-economic, and building stock characteristics.
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- 2022
12. The contribution of bioenergy to the decarbonization of transport: a multi-model assessment
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Leblanc, Florian, Bibas, Ruben, Mima, Silvana, Muratori, Matteo, Sakamoto, Shogo, Sano, Fuminori, Bauer, Nico, Daioglou, Vassilis, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Gidden, Matthew J., Kato, Estsushi, Rose, Steven K., Tsutsui, Junichi, Vuuren, Detlef P. van, Weyant, John, Wise, Marshall, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Environmental Sciences, Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble (GAEL), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Central Research Institute of Electrical Power Industry, RITE, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Climate Analytics, Partenaires INRAE, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Electrical Power Research Institute (EPRI), Electrical Power Research Institute, Stanford University, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, and Environmental Sciences
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Transport sector ,Global and Planetary Change ,Atmospheric Science ,JEL: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q4 - Energy/Q.Q4.Q42 - Alternative Energy Sources ,Integrated Assessment Models ,Climate mitigation ,Taverne ,Bioenergy ,[SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance ,Lignocellulosic fuels ,JEL: R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics/R.R4 - Transportation Economics/R.R4.R49 - Other - Abstract
The expected growth in the demand for passenger and freight services exacerbates the challenges of reducing transport GHG emissions, especially as commercial low-carbon alternatives to petroleum fuels are limited for shipping, air and long-distance road travel. Biofuels can offer a pathway to significantly reduce emissions from these sectors, as they can easily substitute for conventional liquid fuels in internal combustion engines. In this paper, we assess the potential of bioenergy to reduce transport GHG emissions through an analysis leveraging various integrated assessment models and scenarios, as part of the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33). We find that bioenergy can contribute a significant, albeit not dominant, proportion of energy supply to the future transport sector: in scenarios aiming to keep the temperature increase below 2 °C by the end of the twenty-first century, models project that in 2100 bioenergy can provide on average 42 EJ/yr (ranging from 5 to 85 EJ/yr) for transport (compared to 3.7 EJ in 2018), mainly through lignocellulosic fuels. This makes up 9–62% of final transport energy use. Only a small amount of bioenergy is projected to be used in transport through electricity and hydrogen pathways, with a larger role for biofuels in road passenger transport than in freight. The association of carbon capture and storage (CCS) with bioenergy technologies (BECCS) is a key determinant in the role of biofuels in transport, because of the competition for biomass feedstock to provide other final energy carriers along with carbon removal. Among models that consider CCS in the biofuel conversion process the average market share of biofuels is 21% in 2100 (ranging from 2 to 44%), compared to 10% (0–30%) for models that do not. Cumulative direct emissions from the transport sector account for half of the emission budget (from 306 to 776 out of 1,000 GtCO2). However, the carbon intensity of transport decreases as much as other energy sectors in 2100 when accounting for process emissions, including carbon removal from BECCS. Lignocellulosic fuels become more attractive for transport decarbonization if BECCS is not feasible for any energy sectors. Since global transport service demand increases and biomass supply is limited, its allocation to and within the transport sector is uncertain and sensitive to assumptions about political as well as technological and socioeconomic factors.
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- 2022
13. Regional abatement action and costs under allocation schemes for emission allowances for achieving low CO2-equivalent concentrations
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den Elzen, Michel G. J., Lucas, Paul L., and Vuuren, Detlef P. van
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- 2008
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14. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures.
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Kikstra, Jarmo S., Nicholls, Zebedee R. J., Smith, Christopher J., Lewis, Jared, Lamboll, Robin D., Byers, Edward, Sandstad, Marit, Meinshausen, Malte, Gidden, Matthew J., Rogelj, Joeri, Kriegler, Elmar, Peters, Glen P., Fuglestvedt, Jan S., Skeie, Ragnhild B., Samset, Bjørn H., Wienpahl, Laura, Vuuren, Detlef P. van, van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar, Khourdajie, Alaa Al, and Forster, Piers M.
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GLOBAL temperature changes ,CLIMATE change mitigation ,RADIATIVE forcing ,WORKFLOW management ,PYTHON programming language - Abstract
While the IPCC's physical science report usually assesses a handful of future scenarios, the IPCC Sixth Assessment Working Group III report (AR6 WGIII) on climate mitigation assesses hundreds to thousands of future emissions scenarios. A key task is to assess the global-mean temperature outcomes of these scenarios in a consistent manner, given the challenge that the emission scenarios from different integrated assessment models come with different sectoral and gas-to-gas coverage and cannot all be assessed consistently by complex Earth System Models. In this work, we describe the "climate assessment" workflow and its methods, including infilling of missing emissions and emissions harmonisation as applied to 1,202 mitigation scenarios in AR6 WGIII. We evaluate the global-mean temperature projections and effective radiative forcing characteristics (ERF) of climate emulators FaIRv1.6.2, MAGICCv7.5.3, and CICERO-SCM, discuss overshoot severity of the mitigation pathways using overshoot degree years, and look at an interpretation of compatibility with the Paris Agreement. We find that the lowest class of emission scenarios that limit global warming to "1.5 °C (with a probability of greater than 50 %) with no or limited overshoot" includes 90 scenarios for MAGICCv7.5.3, and 196 for FaIRv1.6.2. For the MAGICCv7.5.3 results, "limited overshoot" typically implies exceedance of median temperature projections of up to about 0.1 °C for up to a few decades, before returning to below 1.5 °C by or before the year 2100. For more than half of the scenarios of this category that comply with three criteria for being "Paris-compatible", including net-zero or net-negative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, are projected to see median temperatures decline by about 0.3–0.4 °C after peaking at 1.5–1.6 °C in 2035–2055. We compare the methods applied in AR6 with the methods used for SR1.5 and discuss the implications. This article also introduces a 'climate-assessment' Python package which allows for fully reproducing the IPCC AR6 WGIII temperature assessment. This work can be the start of a community tool for assessing the temperature outcomes related to emissions pathways, and potential further work extending the workflow from emissions to global climate by downscaling climate characteristics to a regional level and calculating impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2022
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15. Regional abatement action and costs under allocation schemes for emission allowances for achieving low CO.sub.2-equivalent concentrations
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Elzen, Michel G. J., Lucas, Paul L., and Vuuren, Detlef P. van
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Air quality management -- Methods ,Air quality management -- Accounting and auditing ,Legislation -- Compliance costs ,Legislation -- Comparative analysis ,Earth sciences - Abstract
Byline: Michel G. J. Elzen (1), Paul L. Lucas (1), Detlef P. van Vuuren (1) Abstract: This paper assesses regional abatement action and costs for two scenarios in which atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations stabilise at 450 and 550 ppm CO.sub.2-equivalent. It evaluates two allocation schemes: Multi-Stage and Contraction & Convergence. It was found that abatement costs as percentages of GDP vary significantly by region, with high costs for the Middle East and the former Soviet Union, medium costs for the OECD regions and low costs or even gains for (other) developing regions. In addition to the abatement costs they incur, fossil-fuel-exporting regions are also likely to be affected by losses of coal and oil exports while the former Soviet Union and South America could experience increased bio-energy exports. Especially in the former Soviet Union and Asia, non-CO.sub.2 abatement options are important in the short term in reducing their emissions. Carbon capture and storage, energy efficiency improvements, bio-energy use and the use of renewables dominate reductions in the long term in all regions. It was found that the regional costs are influenced more by the assumed stabilisation level and baseline scenario than by the allocation regimes explored or the assumptions for different technologies. Author Affiliation: (1) Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), P.O. Box 303, 3720 AH, Bilthoven, The Netherlands Article History: Registration Date: 17/06/2008 Received Date: 20/01/2006 Accepted Date: 04/04/2008 Online Date: 03/09/2008
- Published
- 2008
16. Linking climate and sustainable development policy insights from national and global pathways
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Keywan Riahi, Krey, Volker, Bertram, Christoph, Kriegler, Elmar, Vuuren, Detlef P. Van, Roelfsema, Mark, Soest, Heleen Van, Schaeffer, Roberto, Shonali Pachauri, Pahle, Michael, Mathur, Ritu, Bosetti, Valentina, Drouet, Laurent, Vrontisi, Zoi, CD-LINKS Consortium, and Safonov, George
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- 2020
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17. Renewable energy sources: their global potential for the first-half of the 21st century at a global level: an integrated approach
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Vries, Bert J.M. de, Vuuren, Detlef P. van, and Hoogwijk, Monique M.
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Renewable natural resources -- Usage ,Alternative energy sources -- Prices and rates ,Alternative energy sources -- Technology application ,Company pricing policy ,Technology application ,Business ,Environmental issues ,Petroleum, energy and mining industries - Abstract
Economic and technological factors associated with usage of renewable energy resources in 21st century are evaluated.
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- 2007
18. Opportunities for Enhanced Action to Keep Paris Goals within Reach – Contribution to the Talanoa Dialogue by the COMMIT and CD-LINKS projects
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Soest, Heleen Van, Mccollum, David, Bertram, Christoph, Harmsen, Mathijs, Vuuren, Detlef P. Van, Kriegler, Elmar, Roelfsema, Mark, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Elzen, Michel G.J. Den, Reis, Lara A., Keywan Riahi, Krey, Volker, Kejun Jiang, Schaeffer, Roberto, Mathur, Ritu, and Fujimori, Shinichiro
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- 2018
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19. Global and Regional Greenhouse Gas Emissions Neutrality: Implications of 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios for reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions
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Soest, Heleen Van, Elzen, Michel G.J. Den, Forsell, Nicklas, Esmeijer, Kendall, and Vuuren, Detlef P. Van
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- 2018
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20. Supplementary figures from Pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C: a tale of turning around in no time?
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Kriegler, Elmar, Luderer, Gunnar, Bauer, Nico, Baumstark, Lavinia, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Popp, Alexander, Rogelj, Joeri, Strefler, Jessica, and Vuuren, Detlef P. Van
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Contains two supplementary figures to the article
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- 2018
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21. Regional variation in the effectiveness of methane-based and land-based climate mitigation options.
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Hayman, Garry D., Comyn-Platt, Edward, Huntingford, Chris, Harper, Anna B., Powell, Tom, Cox, Peter M., Collins, William, Webber, Christopher, Lowe, Jason, Sitch, Stephen, House, Joanna I., Doelman, Jonathan C., Vuuren, Detlef P. van, Chadburn, Sarah E., Burke, Eleanor, and Gedney, Nicola
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ATMOSPHERIC methane ,CLIMATE change mitigation ,CARBON dioxide mitigation ,GREENHOUSE gas mitigation ,FOSSIL fuels ,CARBON sequestration ,GLOBAL warming ,WATER security - Abstract
Scenarios avoiding global warming greater than 1.5 or 2 °C, as stipulated in the Paris Agreement, may require the combined mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions alongside enhancing negative emissions through approaches such as afforestation/reforestation (AR) and biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). We use the JULES land-surface model coupled to an inverted form of the IMOGEN climate emulator to investigate mitigation scenarios that achieve the 1.5 or 2 °C warming targets of the Paris Agreement. Specifically, we characterise the global and regional effectiveness of land-based (BECCS and/or AR) and anthropogenic methane (CH
4 ) emission mitigation, separately and in combination, on the anthropogenic fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission budgets (AFFEBs) to 2100, using consistent data and socio-economic assumptions from the IMAGE integrated assessment model. The analysis includes the effects of the methane and carbon-climate feedbacks from wetlands and permafrost thaw, which we have shown previously to be significant constraints on the AFFEBs. Globally, mitigation of anthropogenic CH4 emissions has large impacts on the anthropogenic fossil fuel emission budgets, potentially offsetting (i.e. allowing extra) carbon dioxide emissions of 188-212 GtC. Methane mitigation is beneficial everywhere, particularly for the major CH4 -emitting regions of India, USA and China. Land-based mitigation has the potential to offset 51-100 GtC globally, but both the effectiveness and the preferred land-management strategy (i.e., AR or BECCS) have strong regional dependencies. Additional analysis shows extensive BECCS could adversely affect water security for several regions. Our results highlight the extra potential CO2 emissions that can occur, while still keeping global warming below key warming thresholds, by investment in regionally appropriate mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2020
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22. Representation of institutions and actors in models
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Shouro Dasgupta, Cian, Enrica De, Hof, Andries F., Mariësse A.E. Van Sluisveld, Köhler, Jonathan, Pfluger, Benjamin, and Vuuren, Detlef P. Van
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- 2016
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23. Transport: A roadblock to climate change mitigation?
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Creutzig, Felix, primary, Jochem, Patrick, additional, Edelenbosch, Oreane Y., additional, Mattauch, Linus, additional, Vuuren, Detlef P. van, additional, McCollum, David, additional, and Minx, Jan, additional
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- 2015
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24. Deep greenhouse gas emission reductions in Europe
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Deetman, Sebastiaan, Hof, Andries F., Pfluger, Benjamin, Vuuren, Detlef P. van, Girod, Bastien, Ruijven, Bas J. van, and Publica
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Europe ,energy modelling ,climate policy - Abstract
Most modelling studies that explore emission mitigation scenarios only look into least-cost emission pathways, induced by a carbon tax. This means that European policies targeting specific - sometimes relatively costly - technologies, such as electric cars and advanced insulation measures, are usually not evaluated as part of cost-optimal scenarios. This study explores an emission mitigation scenario for Europe up to 2050, taking as a starting point specific emission reduction options instead of a carbon tax. The purpose is to identify the potential of each of these policies and identify trade-offs between sectoral policies in achieving emission reduction targets. The reduction options evaluated in this paper together lead to a reduction of 65% of 1990 CO2-equivalent emissions by 2050. More bottom-up modelling exercises, like the one presented here, provide a promising starting point to evaluate policy options that are currently considered by policy makers.
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- 2013
25. Bio-Energy Use and Low Stabilization Scenarios
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Vuuren, Detlef P. van, primary, Bellevrat, Elie, additional, Kitous, Alban, additional, and Isaac, Morna, additional
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- 2010
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26. Low Stabilization Scenarios and Implications for Major World Regions from an Integrated Assessment Perspective
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Vuuren , Detlef P. van, primary, Isaac, Morna, additional, Elzen, Michel G.J. den, additional, Stehfest, Elke, additional, and van Vliet, Jasper, additional
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- 2010
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27. Running policy-relevant Integrated Assessment Models scenarios in Earth System Models
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Vuuren, Detlef P van, primary, Feddema, J, additional, Frolking, S, additional, Hibbard, K, additional, Hurtt, G, additional, Lamarque, J-F, additional, Chini, L Parsons, additional, Riahi, K, additional, Rose, S, additional, Smith, S, additional, and Stehfest, E, additional
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- 2009
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28. Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios
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Vuuren, Detlef P van, primary, Meinshausen, M, additional, Plattner, G-K, additional, Joos, F, additional, Strassman, K M, additional, Smith, S J, additional, Wigley, T M L, additional, Raper, S C B, additional, Riahi, K, additional, Chesnaye, P de la, additional, Elzen, M G J den, additional, Fujino, J, additional, Jiang, K, additional, Nakicenovic, N, additional, Paltsev, S, additional, and Reilly, J M, additional
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- 2009
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29. Pathways to achieve universal household access to modern energy by 2030.
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Pachauri, Shonali, Ruijven, Bas J van, Nagai, Yu, Riahi, Keywan, Vuuren, Detlef P van, Brew-Hammond, Abeeku, and Nakicenovic, Nebojsa
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- 2013
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30. Supplementary Information from Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C
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Seneviratne, Sonia I., Wartenburger, Richard, Benoit P. Guillod, Hirsch, Annette L., Vogel, Martha M., Brovkin, Victor, Vuuren, Detlef P. Van, Schaller, Nathalie, Boysen, Lena, Calvin, Katherine V., Doelman, Jonathan, Greve, Peter, Havlik, Petr, Humpenöder, Florian, Krisztin, Tamas, Mitchell, Daniel, Popp, Alexander, Keywan Riahi, Rogelj, Joeri, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sillmann, Jana, and Stehfest, Elke
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13. Climate action ,InformationSystems_INFORMATIONSTORAGEANDRETRIEVAL ,ComputingMilieux_COMPUTERSANDEDUCATION ,Data_FILES ,ComputingMethodologies_DOCUMENTANDTEXTPROCESSING ,ComputerApplications_COMPUTERSINOTHERSYSTEMS ,15. Life on land - Abstract
Supplementary Information Document (Word File)
31. Reducing global GHG emissions by replicating successful sector examples: the ‘good practice policies’ scenario
- Author
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Roelfsema, Mark, Fekete, Hanna, Höhne, Niklas, Elzen, Michel Den, Forsell, Nicklas, Kuramochi, Takeshi, Coninck, Heleen De, and Vuuren, Detlef P. Van
- Subjects
13. Climate action ,11. Sustainability ,7. Clean energy ,12. Responsible consumption - Abstract
This article shows the potential impact on global GHG emissions in 2030, if all countries were to implement sectoral climate policies similar to successful examples already implemented elsewhere. This assessment was represented in the IMAGE and GLOBIOM/G4M models by replicating the impact of successful national policies at the sector level in all world regions. The first step was to select successful policies in nine policy areas. In the second step, the impact on the energy and land-use systems or GHG emissions was identified and translated into model parameters, assuming that it would be possible to translate the impacts of the policies to other countries. As a result, projected annual GHG emission levels would be about 50 GtCO2e by 2030 (2% above 2010 levels), compared to the 60 GtCO2e in the ‘current policies’ scenario. Most reductions are achieved in the electricity sector through expanding renewable energy, followed by the reduction of fluorinated gases, reducing venting and flaring in oil and gas production, and improving industry efficiency. Materializing the calculated mitigation potential might not be as straightforward given different country priorities, policy preferences and circumstances. Key policy insightsConsiderable emissions reductions globally would be possible, if a selection of successful policies were replicated and implemented in all countries worldwide.This would significantly reduce, but not close, the emissions gap with a 2°C pathway.From the selection of successful policies evaluated in this study, those implemented in the sector ‘electricity supply’ have the highest impact on global emissions compared to the ‘current policies’ scenario.Replicating the impact of these policies worldwide could lead to emission and energy trends in the renewable electricity, passenger transport, industry (including fluorinated gases) and buildings sector, that are close to those in a 2°C scenario.Using successful policies and translating these to policy impact per sector is a more reality-based alternative to most mitigation pathways, which need to make theoretical assumptions on policy cost-effectiveness. Considerable emissions reductions globally would be possible, if a selection of successful policies were replicated and implemented in all countries worldwide. This would significantly reduce, but not close, the emissions gap with a 2°C pathway. From the selection of successful policies evaluated in this study, those implemented in the sector ‘electricity supply’ have the highest impact on global emissions compared to the ‘current policies’ scenario. Replicating the impact of these policies worldwide could lead to emission and energy trends in the renewable electricity, passenger transport, industry (including fluorinated gases) and buildings sector, that are close to those in a 2°C scenario. Using successful policies and translating these to policy impact per sector is a more reality-based alternative to most mitigation pathways, which need to make theoretical assumptions on policy cost-effectiveness.
32. Reducing global GHG emissions by replicating successful sector examples: the ‘good practice policies’ scenario
- Author
-
Roelfsema, Mark, Fekete, Hanna, Höhne, Niklas, Elzen, Michel Den, Forsell, Nicklas, Kuramochi, Takeshi, Coninck, Heleen De, and Vuuren, Detlef P. Van
- Subjects
13. Climate action ,11. Sustainability ,7. Clean energy ,12. Responsible consumption - Abstract
This article shows the potential impact on global GHG emissions in 2030, if all countries were to implement sectoral climate policies similar to successful examples already implemented elsewhere. This assessment was represented in the IMAGE and GLOBIOM/G4M models by replicating the impact of successful national policies at the sector level in all world regions. The first step was to select successful policies in nine policy areas. In the second step, the impact on the energy and land-use systems or GHG emissions was identified and translated into model parameters, assuming that it would be possible to translate the impacts of the policies to other countries. As a result, projected annual GHG emission levels would be about 50 GtCO2e by 2030 (2% above 2010 levels), compared to the 60 GtCO2e in the ‘current policies’ scenario. Most reductions are achieved in the electricity sector through expanding renewable energy, followed by the reduction of fluorinated gases, reducing venting and flaring in oil and gas production, and improving industry efficiency. Materializing the calculated mitigation potential might not be as straightforward given different country priorities, policy preferences and circumstances. Key policy insightsConsiderable emissions reductions globally would be possible, if a selection of successful policies were replicated and implemented in all countries worldwide.This would significantly reduce, but not close, the emissions gap with a 2°C pathway.From the selection of successful policies evaluated in this study, those implemented in the sector ‘electricity supply’ have the highest impact on global emissions compared to the ‘current policies’ scenario.Replicating the impact of these policies worldwide could lead to emission and energy trends in the renewable electricity, passenger transport, industry (including fluorinated gases) and buildings sector, that are close to those in a 2°C scenario.Using successful policies and translating these to policy impact per sector is a more reality-based alternative to most mitigation pathways, which need to make theoretical assumptions on policy cost-effectiveness. Considerable emissions reductions globally would be possible, if a selection of successful policies were replicated and implemented in all countries worldwide. This would significantly reduce, but not close, the emissions gap with a 2°C pathway. From the selection of successful policies evaluated in this study, those implemented in the sector ‘electricity supply’ have the highest impact on global emissions compared to the ‘current policies’ scenario. Replicating the impact of these policies worldwide could lead to emission and energy trends in the renewable electricity, passenger transport, industry (including fluorinated gases) and buildings sector, that are close to those in a 2°C scenario. Using successful policies and translating these to policy impact per sector is a more reality-based alternative to most mitigation pathways, which need to make theoretical assumptions on policy cost-effectiveness.
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