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Making misleading statements may benefit a politician, for example, during an election campaign. However, there are potentially also negative consequences; political misinformation can taint democratic debate, voters may be misled into forming false beliefs, and being fact‐checked may damage a politician's reputation. Previous research has found that correcting misleading statements made by established politicians reduces topical misperceptions, but hardly affects voter feelings and support. Here, we examined the impact of political misinformation and fact‐checking when politicians are unfamiliar. Participants (N = 406) were engaged in a simulated election campaign set in an unfamiliar country, featuring statements from fictional candidates. Participants indicated their feelings toward the candidates, cast a vote, and rated their belief in the fact‐checked statements. Misleading statements that were not corrected positively affected feelings toward and voting for (right‐leaning) politicians. Corrective fact‐checks had large effects, reducing belief in misinformation, and fact‐checked candidates were viewed much less favorably and attracted far fewer votes. This demonstrates that in the absence of strong pre‐existing attitudes, corrective fact‐checks can negatively impact misinformation‐spreading politicians who are not (yet) well known. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines if politicians react to events they cannot control to avoid political blame and if voters hold politicians accountable for functions beyond their office. I focus on the response of mayors and voters to a farmland tax implemented by the Italian central government. I investigate how the municipalities affected by the new policy adjust to it and study if the election odds of the incumbent mayor's party in towns subject to the tax are affected. Mayors increase spending in municipalities where the tax is implemented. Average spending grows by 1.38 euro (about a 1% increase) and it is financed by increased borrowing which expands by 0.64 euro per capita, on average. Voters do not seem to punish the local incumbent for a policy decided by the national government. Two factors may have contributed to offsetting the electoral impact. The first is greater spending in those municipalities where the incumbent is on the ballot. The second is a media account of the policy which was factual and not biased against the local incumbent. Overall, these findings suggest politicians react to policies that are fully out of their hands, potentially to avoid electoral punishment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective Methods Results Conclusion This study investigates whether recent political events in South Korea, such as a presidential impeachment and changes in leadership, have caused a realignment of voters' political affiliations. We aim to determine whether political party allegiance has transitioned into a pattern of habitual voting in the last ten years.Employing a Random Forest model based on machine learning approaches, we examined polling data from the last ten years of Korean presidential elections. Instead of relying on hypothesis‐led methods, our analysis emphasizes the intrinsic characteristics of the data to uncover crucial elements affecting voter behavior in each election.Our results reveal a considerable consistency in voting patterns over the past decade, implying that allegiance to political parties has turned into a habitual behavior. Significant factors affecting voter choices in the 2022 election were also recognized as indicators of election outcomes five and ten years prior.The study reveals that voter behavior in South Korea remains stable despite notable political changes, primarily influenced by habitual elements rather than substantial changes in party loyalty. This suggests that political allegiance has become ingrained as a habitual behavior for Korean voters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Women form a large part of the voting public in India. In the 2009 Indian National Election post-election survey, 82% of all adult women surveyed reported voting, but only 32% said that they were interested in politics. The paradox between high female turnout but low levels of interest has been noted in multiple developing country contexts, but the phenomenon is under-theorized. We suggest the reason is that women's ideas (interest in politics) are discouraged and suppressed by societal patriarchal norms enforced in the household, but women's bodies (their votes) are valued in competitive elections. We illustrate our argument using matched samples from two rounds (2009 and 2014) of the Indian National Election Survey and an original post-election survey in 2019. We find that women are consistently less likely to report either an interest in politics, or an opinion on political issues, if their spouse or an adult family member observes the interview. Our findings suggest that women's political agency is systematically under-estimated by researchers, and that women are more likely to assert themselves politically in survey contexts, if given the privacy to do so. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Generation X often receives less attention in generational analysis due to its perceived lack of distinctiveness compared to preceding and succeeding generations in the contemporary United States. Politically, there is little justification for distinguishing Generation X as it is commonly defined, yet it harbors significant political divergence between its older and younger cohorts. In terms of partisanship, ideology, and public policy preferences, Generation X is markedly divided, essentially comprising two distinct political generations. Generation X can thus be viewed as the in‐between generation representing the political dividing line between young and old. The dividing point is the birth year of 1973. Due to the considerable differences in the political climate during their formative years, those Gen Xers born before 1973 lean considerably more conservative and Republican than those born in 1973 and afterward. Related Articles: Fisher, Patrick. 2020. "Generational Replacement and the Impending Transformation of the American Electorate." Politics & Policy 48(1): 38–68. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12340. Shaykhutdinov, Renat. 2019. "Socialization, Rationality, and Age: Generational Gaps and the Attitudes toward the Chechen War in Russia." Politics & Policy 47(5): 931–55. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12323. Stockemer, Daniel. 2016. "Is the Turnout Function in Democracies and Nondemocracies Alike or Different?" Politics & Policy 44(5): 889–915. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12174. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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According to theories on ideological differences, individuals who endorse the values of freedom, justice, and equality are expected to be left-wing oriented, whereas individuals who endorse authoritarian values are expected to be right-wing oriented. I hypothesize that such associations do not hold in the Arab world, where in the context of past state formation trajectories, leftists and secularists endorsed an authoritarian-nationalist discourse to build post-colonial states, while Islamists endorsed a freedom-and-justice discourse as a reaction to state oppression. Using original representative face-to-face survey data collected right after the 2019 Tunisian elections, I test this hypothesis by examining which values determine citizens' voting behavior in both parliamentary and presidential elections. Results show that people who endorse liberty-and-justice values are more likely to vote for Islamist right-wing parties, whereas those who endorse authoritarian-nationalist values are more likely to vote for leftist parties. These results have important implications for the study of voting behavior in the Arab world and in comparative politics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When and why do economic grievances result in support for populist parties? We address a long-standing puzzle in understanding populist voters. Existing studies have produced mixed results about how economic characteristics drive support for populist parties. We argue this is because scholars have overlooked the central importance of internal political efficacy, i.e., a belief in one's ability to affect political outcomes. Using three pooled waves of the European Social Survey (ESS 2014, 2016, and 2018) with over 80,000 individual observations over time, we find that the economic determinants of populist support are contingent on internal political efficacy. Although there are reasons to think that the combined effect of economic circumstances and efficacy may be stronger on support for the populist left because of their stronger emphasis on social justice, we do not find evidence of this with the limited observations of the populist left in our sample. Critically, our findings contrast with the simplified and theoretically unsatisfying explanations of populist support we often encounter in the literature that are based solely on economic dissatisfaction. Instead, our results imply that recent trends in European politics are not only about economic issues but also about a voter's belief in having agency and competence to affect change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines what best explains political behavior in a deeply divided society. Despite the democratic nature of the Israeli political system, we suggest that Israel's society is characterized by social affiliations mainly defined by social identity that include race, ethnicity, and religion and amount to tribalism. Based on the results of the 2020 election, we examined whether these social affiliations or other socioeconomic characteristics better explain voting behavior. First, we found a significant correlation between tribalism and voting behavior in Israel and socioeconomic characteristics and voting behavior in Israel. When comparing tribalism's correlation versus other socioeconomic characteristics, we found that the correlation between tribalism and voting behavior in Israel trumps the correlation between socioeconomic characteristics and voting behavior in Israel, except for the Ashkenazi Jews. In other words, voting behavior is better explained by affiliation to the social group, that is, by kinship, race, ethnicity, and religion, than by other socioeconomic characteristics such as education level, economic status, or geographic location. This extends the idea of "in-group favoritism". [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A growing body of research documents how shrinking local newsrooms undermine political accountability and local fiscal and policy performance in the United States. We extend this work to examine political impacts from the level of information content in local news, which has been jeopardized by reductions in newsroom staffing. To understand how information content affects public response to news coverage of a local issue, we focus on the case of preventive spending on infrastructure maintenance and repair. Inefficiently low levels of infrastructure investment are often attributed to low public knowledge about the risk of failure events. In a preregistered survey experiment, we test how the level and type of information in a news article affect support for infrastructure investment across two different types of infrastructure risk (repeated nuisance versus catastrophic failure). For both types of risk, we find that more information-rich reporting, whether investigative or event-driven, increases public support for preventive spending and imposes accountability penalties on local leaders who fail to invest in prevention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Why do elected officials tend to be much older than most of their constituents? To understand the mechanisms behind the underrepresentation of young people in public office, we conducted two novel survey experiments in Japan. We asked voters in these experiments to evaluate the photos of hypothetical candidates while altering candidates' faces using age regression and progression software. Contrary to the observed age demographics of politicians, the voters in our experiments strongly disliked older candidates but viewed younger and middle-aged candidates as equally favorable. Voters saw young candidates as less experienced but also more likely to focus on many policy issues over a longer period, including education, childcare, climate change, anti-corruption measures, and multiculturalism. Young voters especially liked young candidates, suggesting that greater youth turnout could increase youth representation. Conversely, elderly candidates were universally panned, seen as the least competent, least likely to focus on most policy issues, and least electable. Voter biases thus do not seem to be a driving factor behind the shortage of young politicians. To the contrary, voters appear perfectly willing to cast their ballots for young candidates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Voting behavior is a very complex type of political behavior. Therefore, understanding why voters vote for a particular political party or a candidate requires developing complex models. In 1957, Anthony Downs, who built his model on Hottelings’ and Smithies’ models, argued that political parties’ and candidates’ ideological and issue positions can be expressed on a one-dimensional space. On one hand, it was highly reductionist to argue that political ideas on a particular issue can be expressed this way, on the other, it was highly practical from analytical point of view. Locating parties, candidates and voters on a one-dimensional space according to their ideological or issue positions was then a revolutionaly idea and helped comparing party, candidate and voter ideological and issue positions within and across countries. These models, which were called spatial models of party competition were further developed over time and helped understanding voting behavior. Currently, spatial models of party competition have two major competing models linking voter ideological positions with party ideological positions. Simply, while the proximity model proposes that voters vote for the parties or candidates that hold ideological positions in the political space that are closest to their own, the directional model suggests that the voters vote for the parties or candidates that are on their side of the two-dimensional political spectrum and more extreme than their own while being within the acceptability region. This research aims to test the applicability of these two voting models for the Turkish voter. Türkiye constitutes an interesting case study with its long-term PR electoral system as it was suggested in the extant literature that proximity model is a more appropriate tool to explain voting behavior in Proportional (PR) systems. Thus, we hypothesize that in Türkiye, where a PR electoral system is in effect for parliamentary elections, voter electoral preferences are better explained by the proximity model than the directional model. Our research analyzes Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) data for voters of the four major political parties in Türkiye, the Justice and Development Party (JDP), the Republican People’s Party (RPP), the National Action Party (NAP), and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). A series of Multiple Linear Regression Analyses were conducted to reveal associations between the dependent and the independent variables. Voter embracement, as expressed as like-dislike of each political party for each voter, is seperately used as the dependent variable for each analysis. Issue distance and issue scalar product were used as key independent variables representing the formulas for the proximity and the directional models, respectively. Additionally, education, age, gender and income were recruited as classical control variables. Comparing explanatory powers of the statistical models showed that, contrary to the findings of MacDonald and his colleagues, the proximity model of voting is a more appropriate tool than the directional model to explain voting behavior in Türkiye. From a macro-political perspective, this finding supports Westholm’s (1997) argument that the PR provides a more appropriate tool to explain voting behavior in PR systems. Yet, it should be noted that further multi-country comperative analyses required for certain results. Keywords: Spatial Theories of Party Competition, Proximity Model, Directional Model, Voting Behavior, Turkish Politics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Voters in rural and peripheral areas have increasingly turned away from mainstream parties and towards right‐wing populist parties. This paper tests the extent to which political decisions with adverse local effects—such as school and hospital closures—can explain this electoral shift. I theorize that political decisions such as these substantiate a perception of a disconnect between "ordinary" people and the politicians in power in day‐to‐day experiences. Using data on 315 school closures and 30 hospital closures in Denmark from 2005 to 2019 in a generalized difference‐in‐differences design, I find that mayors lose about 1.6 percentage points of the valid votes in areas where they close a school. Furthermore, I find that right‐wing populist parties increase their support in both local and national elections when a local school or hospital is closed. These findings provide insight into the electoral consequences of political decisions with adverse local effects and thus contribute to our understanding of the rise of right‐wing populism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Political representation can be described as a process brought about via an electoral and a perceptual path. Drawing on original survey data on the perceptual accuracy of elected representatives in Belgium, Canada and Switzerland, this study explores whether and how the two paths are connected. It shows, first, that representatives who more accurately perceive voters' opinion are more likely to be re‐elected, suggesting that perceptual accuracy impacts the electoral path to representation. Second, representatives who are electorally safe hold less accurate perceptions of voters' policy preferences, meaning that the electoral path impacts the perceptual path. In all, the study provides evidence for the role of politicians' perceptual accuracy in their electoral career: voters sanction those representatives who are not sufficiently acquainted with their preferences, and representatives who fear to be voted out of office put more effort in getting acquainted with what voters want. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Scholars have struggled to understand Donald Trump's surprising levels of Latino support in two consecutive presidential elections. We test three hypotheses to better understand the strength and weakness of Trump, Biden, and both political parties. Methods: We conduct bivariate and multivariate analyses of pre‐ and post‐election surveys to identify sources of support (beyond national origin differences) that explain how Trump improved his level of support among Latino voters to reach the low‐ to mid‐ 30 percent range. Results: Intra‐Latino differences in ideology, identity (gender and religion), and immigration attitudes help explain Trump's relatively strong showing among Latinos in 2020. Conclusion: While the nation's electorate is becoming more demographically diverse, many predictions associated with the notion of "demography as destiny" should be tempered given the political heterogeneity among Latino voters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does party system polarization mobilize voters? Polarization is increasingly shaping democratic competition across Europe. While often perceived to be negative, polarization can be an effective remedy against voter disengagement. This paper investigates two distinct, but often conflated mechanisms, which could explain why polarization leads to mobilization. Spatial polarization of parties diversifies electoral options at the ballot, while affective polarization mobilizes based on emotional considerations. This article then shows the link between polarization and turnout across 22 European countries. The results are complemented by a difference-in-differences analysis of German local elections. However, voting results alone do not inform about the mechanism at play. Survey data is used to show that negative affect appears to be the main driver of voter participation. Party polarization thus has ambivalent consequences for democracies: It mobilizes the electorate, but its effect is driven by negative emotions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A woman has not yet shattered the "hardest, highest glass ceiling" of the American presidency. Our research answers two questions: Which groups are more likely to believe electing a woman president to be historically important? (R1), and When a presidential election is at stake, who is likely to support a woman candidate? (R2). Using observational data (n = 1075), our findings indicate that women, people who recognize sexism within politics, Democrats, and liberals are more likely to view a woman president as historic. Utilizing a list experiment of hypothetical 2024 presidential matchups, few who claimed to view a woman president as historic were willing to cast a vote in their favor. When push came to shove, Democratic women were the group most likely to vote for a woman presidential candidate. As parties look toward the future, this study offers insight into how voters respond to potential nominees and who parties will nominate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Associative issue ownership (AIO) has proven its value in describing issue competition and explaining voting behavior. Yet, it is unclear whether and to what extent AIO also differentiates parties and influences vote choice in highly fragmented, multiparty systems. In such a context, parties must differentiate from many electoral competitors, which makes AIO worth pursuing. At the same time, obtaining unequivocal ownership may be a very difficult endeavor in the face of so many rivals. This paper aims to assess these questions empirically by employing the Dutch Parliamentary Election Study 2021 on a system with 17 elected parties (ENPP = 8). At the aggregate level, we find unequivocal issue ownership for 4 of the 14 issues under study. AIO of most other issues is contested, either by parties with very similar policy positions (within-block competition) or by parties with opposing positions (between-block competition). A final set of issues remain unclaimed. At the individual level, perceptions of issue ownership explain the composition of voters' party consideration sets (pre-elections) and their actual vote choice (post-elections). These impacts are stronger when voters associate the party with an issue they find important. We conclude that AIO perceptions are an important factor to consider when studying party dynamics and voting behavior in a context of highly fragmented multipartyism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous research demonstrated that voters for the Dutch radical right party PVV were the most stable voters among the highly volatile electorate. However, since 2017 two new radical right parties have successfully entered the Dutch Parliament: Forum for Democracy (FvD) and JA21, conceivably at the expense of the PVV. The success of these new parties is puzzling, because there does not seem to be much room for new parties campaigning on a highly similar platform. In our paper, we use LISS panel data to study the determinants of vote switching patterns between four subsequent elections from 2017 to 2021. We find that the surprise victory of the new far right in 2019 can be explained by its ability to attract both former PVV voters as well as voters new to the far right. Since then, FvD has lost many of its supporters again, but these voters have mostly switched to other far-right parties, meaning the far-right support base has become fragmented, yet enlarged. This suggests that when provided with viable alternatives, radical right voters are as volatile as other voter groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the research is to investigate the place of tribal structure in the perception of the people living there in Van province and its effect on political preferences. Since associations affiliated with tribes have been opened in Van in recent years and their relations with the political institution have intensified as a result of the tribal members who used to reside in the villages now residing in the center of Van, it has become important to conduct a study based on field research in the relevant field. After reading the literature related to the research, the research is sahped through the questions "What is the approach to the tribal structure in Van today and what is its effect on voting preferences?". The research is a qualitative study based on semi-structured interviews and using grounded theory design. The data of the research was collected through interviews with people living in Van province and its districts and political party officials in the center of Van. The data of the research were analyzed in the context of the principles of grounded theory. As a result of the study, it was determined that the tribal structure is a visible phenomenon in Van, but its effect on political preferences is low. Some of the people interviewed for the research said that tribal affiliation is necessary in Van; Some of them stated that there is no need for such a affiliation today. Thus, a situation of coexistence of conflicting statements emerged in the findings obtained during the interviews. Based on this, the concept of dialectics of belonging was reached in the context of Anselm Strauss and Barney Glaser's approaches to grounded theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We apply an intersectional framework to explore how connections to marginalized communities interact with candidate demographics to shape vote choice in U.S. politics. In an original experiment manipulating candidates' race, gender, sexuality, and endorsements, we show that endorsements by organizations advocating for marginalized communities shape voter evaluations to the same, if not greater, degree as candidate demographics. Moreover, the effects are particularly pronounced for candidates receiving an endorsement from an LGBT advocacy organization. Attitudes toward marginalized communities are mapped onto candidates with ties to those communities, whether the candidate is a member or not; we call this process associational affect. Identity has a complex role in shaping vote choice, and, absent an investigation of power and interlocking social hierarchies, it alone is insufficient to explain vote choice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seçimler sırasında bireyin oy vereceği adaya veya partiye karar vermesine karşılık gelen politik karar verme, bilişsel bir süreç sonucunda ortaya çıkmaktadır. Seçmenler politik karar verme sürecinde farklı karar verme tarzları kullanmakta ve bireylerin kullandıkları karar verme tarzları bir dizi faktöre bağlı olarak değişmektedir. Bu faktörlerden birinin bireylere hayat tarzı, düşünme sistemi ve dünyaya bakış açısı sunan din ve dindarlık olduğu düşünülmektedir. Bu çerçevede makalede kişilerin politik karar verme tarzları ile dindarlık düzeyleri arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Bununla birlikte oy vermeyi dinî bir görev olarak görmenin dindarlık ile politik karar alma tarzları ilişkisindeki düzenleyici rolü de incelenmiştir. Araştırmanın çalışma grubunu, İstanbul’un farklı ilçelerinde ikamet etmekte olan yaşları 25 - 65 yaş arasında değişen 310 katılımcı oluşturmaktadır. Kişisel Bilgi Formu, Politik Karar Verme Ölçeği ve Dindarlık Ölçeği veri toplamak için kullanılmıştır. Araştırma verileri Kasım-2021 tarihinde yüzyüze şekilde toplanmıştır. Bulgular politik karar verme tarzları ile dindarlık eğilimleri arasında güçlü ilişkilere işaret etmiştir. Nitekim bireylerin dindarlık eğilimleri arttıkça daha hızlı ve daha kolay politik karar vermeyi sağlayan tarzlara yönelik eğilimlerinin arttığı tespit edilmiştir. Dindarlığı daha yüksek olan bireyler hızlı ve sade, bilişsel kısayol temelli, partizan ve içgörüsel karar verme tarzlarına daha fazla eğilim göstermektedir. Dindarlık ile analitik karar verme tarzı arasındaki ilişkiye yönelik yapılan analizlerde ise bu iki değişken arasında ilişki olduğu ve bilgi-ibadet boyutuna yönelik eğilimin analitik karar verme tarzına yönelik eğilimi artırdığı görülmüştür. Yine bulgulara göre oy vermeyi dinî bir görev olarak görme dindarlık ve analitik karar verme arasında düzenleyici etkiye sahiptir. Daha açık bir ifadeyle oy vermeyi dinî bir görev olarak görmenin dindarlığın analitik karar vermeye olan etkisini artırdığı tespit edilmiştir.

This study analyzes factors influencing public support for hosting the Summer Olympics in the Rhine-Ruhr (RR) region in 2036 or 2040. Analyzing data from 14 municipalities, a multilevel model is used to account for individual and contextual factors. Despite a high overall endorsement rate of 67%, the study shows that consumer capital, pride, perception of sustainability, and historical significance significantly influence voting behavior. Surprisingly, structural factors at the municipal level do not show a significant influence. This research provides valuable insights for policymakers and organizers considering future Olympic bids in the RR region. The results emphasize the importance of effective communication to gain public support. This communication should highlight the environmental and economic sustainability of the host community, historical significance, and intangible benefits such as pride. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores Facebook's role in shaping the political perception of youth during the 2018 general elections in Pakistan. It also gauges the ideological standpoint of youth in Pakistan that influences their voting decisions. An online campaign has become an indispensable source for politicians to influence the masses without the constraints of distance and time. It is a quantitative study based on a questionnaire survey of young Pakistani voters. Findings show that Facebook has presumed the role of an instigator in shaping the voting behavior of educated youth. Respondents perceived Facebook as biased while expressing views and assisted political entities in manipulating the data to increase their vote bank. Though the majority of them haven't experienced fake news so either they are not conscious or they trust blindly the information. Furthermore, respondents' cognitive abilities are not obstructed by politicians using Facebook, instead, friends and family network seems more persuasive in determining voters' choice. Results manifest that ideological standpoint impacts voters' decisions substantially. There is no statistical difference in the voting behavior of respondents based on gender and/or age. The individuality of this study is that it focuses on the medium of communication between politicians and youth instead of emphasizing the social cleavages and their impact on voters' decisions, which Pakistani scholars largely study. This study will prompt the field of psephology in Pakistan, which is largely ignored, and help scholars to move out of the domain of identity politics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An i-voting system may promote electoral participation by reducing travel cost and time to polling places, especially among youth who are more accustomed to technological changes. We study the linkage between travel costs on election day and voter turnout by comparing past electoral participation with stated voting behavior in a hypothetical i-voting system. We believe that the link between transportation costs, i-voting, and voter-turnout emerges as an interesting opportunity to disentangle the mechanism behind the expected increase in political participation after diversifying voting channels. Data were collected using an online questionnaire that was disseminated among Chilean university students. Binary and bivariate probit estimates show that conventional turnout probability among university students is negatively affected by travel costs on election day. Interestingly, whereas political interest and democracy valuation still augment the probability of voter turnout with i-voting, travel-to-polling-station costs are not statistically relevant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Do voters tolerate undemocratic behavior by politicians with whom they share partisanship or policy preferences? I answer this question employing conjoint experiments in the United States, the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, Mexico, and South Korea. Theoretically, I distinguish between a hypothesis based on social psychological partisan attachments and Downsian hypotheses based on spatial policy preferences. In all five countries, I find that partisanship does not suppress the negative effects of undemocratic behavior on voting intentions, whereas policy agreement between voters and candidates even increases punishment of undemocratic behavior. However, partisanship has much stronger direct influences on voting intentions than policy agreement and especially undemocratic behavior. The findings suggest that voters have a harder time setting aside their partisan attachments than their policy preferences for democracy. But most importantly, citizens are not completely blinded by either partisanship or policy agreement when facing undemocratic politicians. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Politicians' ways of speaking and dressing, how they address other leaders and the masses, and even the kind of gestures they use are all evaluated in detail by the media, commentators, and the electorate. Of the above, however, of particular interest to the media is when they openly cry in public. Public weeping is often regarded as a sign of weakness, and even irrationality; however, a political leader doing so publicly may be able to build a connection with the people in some instances. In this paper, I analyse whether public weeping can affect a leader's public approval. Known for his tearfulness, Turkish President Erdogan has wept publicly twenty-seven times between 2014–2022. Based on time-series data and the autoregressive distributed lag model, it does, in fact, seem that public weeping has significantly increased President Erdogan's public approval rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Individuals sometimes do not "vote their beliefs" but rather to affirm their partisan affiliation. We design an experiment to determine the conditions under which voters engage in partisan expressive voting. Democrats and Republicans are asked to vote on the answers to factual questions about politics and are rewarded if the majority of their group answers correctly. To evaluate both compositional and audience effects, we vary the number of affected co-partisans and public dissemination of vote totals. We find that voters are more expressive as the numbers of co-partisans in either the population or the voting pool increase, despite the potential costs of such behavior for co-partisans. Our results thus indicate that large majorities will sometimes produce outcomes that all could regret. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spanish language media is linked to multiple forms of Latino political mobilization, including protest, naturalization, and voting. However, recent research associates geographic access to Spanish language broadcasts with significantly lower rates of Latino voter participation. We engage this controversy by exploring whether relative consumption of Spanish and English language media shapes rates of civic and voter participation among Latinos using data from the 2016 Cooperative Multiracial Postelection Survey and our own 2021 survey. 1 Next, we test the hypothesis that Spanish language media acts through politicized identities to shape Latino civic engagement, as some theorize. We find strong association between Spanish language media consumption and politicized identities among Latinos but no evidence that these identities constitute a conduit through which Spanish language media mobilizes. Instead, our results show that the mobilizing effect of Spanish language media consumption on civic engagement is direct and independent of politicized identity. These findings indicate a need to explore whether Spanish language media consumption influences Latino participation through differences with English language media in terms of content and/or fragmentation that better educate Latinos to participate, reduce political alienation, or accomplish both. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the effect of streaming based on ability levels on individuals' civic participation throughout their adult life. The hypothesis we test is that ability grouping influences individuals' general self-concept and, consequently, their civic participation choices across the life course. We employ data from the British National Child Development Study, which follows all UK citizens born during a certain week in 1958. Six binary variables observed at 33, 42, and 51 years of age are considered to measure civic participation. Our approach defines causal estimands with multiple treatments referring to the evolution of civic engagement over time in terms of potential versions of a sequence of latent variables assumed to follow a Markov chain with initial and transition probabilities depending on posttreatment time-varying covariates. The model also addresses partially or entirely missing data on one or more indicators at a given time occasion and missing posttreatment covariate values using dummy indicators. The model is estimated by maximizing a weighted log-likelihood function with weights corresponding to the inverse probability of the received treatment obtained from a multinomial logit model based on pretreatment covariates. Our results show that ability grouping affects the civic participation of high-ability individuals when they are 33 years old with respect to participation in general elections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The political decision-making process, which corresponds to an individual's determination of which candidate or party to vote for during elections, emerges from a cognitive process. Voters use various decision-making styles in this political decisionmaking process, and the decision-making styles used by individuals vary depending on several factors. Among these factors, it is believed that one significant aspect influencing individuals' lifestyles, cognitive frameworks, and perspectives is religion and religiosity. The examines the relationship between individuals' political decision-making styles and their religiosity level. In addition, the moderating role of seeing voting as a religious duty in the relationship between religiosity and political decision-making styles is also examined. The study group of the research consists of 310 participants residing in different districts of Istanbul, ranging in age from 25 to 65. A Personal Information Form, Political Decision-Making Scale, and Religiosity Scale are utilized to collect relevant data. The research data was collected face-to-face in November 2021. It is fair to say that the findings obtained have indicated strong relationships between political decision-making styles and religiosity tendencies. As matter of fact, it has been found that as individuals' religiosity tendencies increased, their tendencies towards that enabled faster and easier political decision-making styles. Individuals with higher levels of religiosity also tend to exhibit a preference for rapid and straightforward, cognitive shortcut-based, partisan, and intuitive decision-making styles. Analyses of the relationship between religiosity and analytical decision-making style revealed a positive association, indicating that a tendency towards the knowledge-worship dimension increased the inclination towards analytical decision-making style. In line with the data the study has yielded, the parameter of considering voting as a religious duty modarate religiosity and analytical decision-making. More clearly, it has been determined that seeing voting as a religious duty increases the effect of religiosity on analytical decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A unifying setup for opinion models originating in statistical physics and stochastic opinion dynamics are developed and used to analyze election data. The results are interpreted in the light of political theory. We investigate the connection between Potts (Curie–Weiss) models and stochastic opinion models in the view of the Boltzmann distribution and stochastic Glauber dynamics. We particularly find that the q-voter model can be considered as a natural extension of the Zealot model, which is adapted by Lagrangian parameters. We also discuss weak and strong effects (also called extensive and nonextensive) continuum limits for the models. The results are used to compare the Curie–Weiss model, two q-voter models (weak and strong effects), and a reinforcement model (weak effects) in explaining electoral outcomes in four western democracies (United States, Great Britain, France, and Germany). We find that particularly the weak effects models are able to fit the data (Kolmogorov–Smirnov test) where the weak effects reinforcement model performs best (AIC). Additionally, we show how the institutional structure shapes the process of opinion formation. By focusing on the dynamics of opinion formation preceding the act of voting, the models discussed in this paper give insights both into the empirical explanation of elections as such, as well as important aspects of the theory of democracy. Therefore, this paper shows the usefulness of an interdisciplinary approach in studying real world political outcomes by using mathematical models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article investigates the pattern of economic voting at the regional level in Italy. It focuses on the elections held in 18 out of 20 Italian regions from 1995 to 2020. Retrospective voting is examined by using the theory of economic voting, measured at the subnational level. By providing some inferential models and controlling for the impact of phases of recession, this article tests the hypothesis whereby the incumbent regional government is rewarded (or punished) by voters in the event of a good (or poor) state of the regional economy. It mainly considers macroeconomic variables, focusing on the relationship between the unemployment rate (at both national and regional levels) and the electoral performance of the incumbent executive. The empirical analysis shows that, particularly during periods of 'quiet politics', economic voting also occurs at the local level and thus the regional unemployment rate affects regional rulers' electoral outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines what best explains political behavior in a deeply divided society. Despite the democratic nature of the Israeli political system, we suggest that Israel’s society is characterized by social affiliations mainly defined by social identity that include race, ethnicity, and religion and amount to tribalism. Based on the results of the 2020 election, we examined whether these social affiliations or other socioeconomic characteristics better explain voting behavior. First, we found a significant correlation between tribalism and voting behavior in Israel and socioeconomic characteristics and voting behavior in Israel. When comparing tribalism’s correlation versus other socioeconomic characteristics, we found that the correlation between tribalism and voting behavior in Israel trumps the correlation between socioeconomic characteristics and voting behavior in Israel, except for the Ashkenazi Jews. In other words, voting behavior is better explained by affiliation to the social group, that is, by kinship, race, ethnicity, and religion, than by other socioeconomic characteristics such as education level, economic status, or geographic location. This extends the idea of “in-group favoritism”.

Industries use persuasion strategies to gain public support when challenged by activist groups on consumer-relevant issues. This marketing practice, termed "direct-to-public persuasion," has received limited attention in the field, and thus we have little understanding of when such campaigns fail or succeed. This research introduces a theoretically derived and empirically supported framework that draws from multiple areas, including marketing persuasion, political campaign strategy, sociopolitical legitimacy, and perceptual fit, to identify important differences in the effectiveness of these persuasion strategies on attitudes and voting behavior. The multimethod approach includes a field study of ballot measure voting during a national U.S. election and three experimental studies. The findings contribute new knowledge of asymmetries in public response to industry and activist arguments. Stronger arguments from both sides lead to more favorable outcomes, but activist groups benefit most. Suspicion of activist arguments weakens the impact on attitudes and voting; industry argument suspicion has limited impact, though it does increase the likelihood of voter switching. A financial argumentation strategy works best for the industry side, while societal argumentation is more effective for the activist side. The insights offer guidance for industries and activist groups as argument strategy success is contingent on the side that uses it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2020, Arizonans approved Proposition 207, the Smart and Safe Arizona Act, which legalized recreational marijuana sales. Previous research has typically used non‐spatial survey data to understand marijuana legalization voting patterns. However, voting behavior can, in part, be shaped by geographic context, or place, which is unaccounted for in aspatial survey data. We use multiscale geographically weighted regression to analyze how place shaped Proposition 207 voting behavior, independently of demographic variations across space. We find significant spatial variability in the sensitivity of voting for Proposition 207 to changes in several of the predictor variables of opposition and support for recreational marijuana legalization. We argue that local statistical modeling approaches provide a more in‐depth understanding of ballot measure voting behavior than the current use of global models. Related Articles: Branton, Regina, and Ronald J. McGauvran. 2018. "Mary Jane Rocks the Vote: The Impact of Climate Context on Support for Cannabis Initiatives." Politics & Policy 46(2): 209–32. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12248. Brekken, Katheryn C., and Vanessa M. Fenley. 2020. "Part of the Narrative: Generic News Frames in the U.S. Recreational Marijuana Policy Subsystem." Politics & Policy 49(1): 6–32. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12388. Fisk, Jonathan M., Joseph A. Vonasek, and Elvis Davis. 2018. "'Pot'reneurial Politics: The Budgetary Highs and Lows of Recreational Marijuana Policy Innovation." Politics & Policy 46(2): 189–208. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12246. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior to the 2020 election President Trump suggested the election should be postponed "until the country can make sure that only eligible American citizens can vote." With the COVID‐19 pandemic leading many states to take steps that made it easier for citizens to vote safely, the president and his allies made numerous false claims about voter fraud; others argued that voter fraud is not common and is unlikely to appreciably increase with greater reliance on mail balloting. We rely on a national Internet‐based survey experiment conducted prior to the 2020 election to assess the effectiveness of both messages on citizens' support for a hypothetical proposal to postpone the presidential election. The results suggest that respondents were more likely to support postponement if they received a fake news message that fraud is common. The results also suggest that these effects are conditional; both political party and knowledge moderate the relationship. Related Articles: Aguado, N. Alexander. 2022. "When Charismatic Leadership Trumps Social Networking: Searching for the Effects of Social Media on Beliefs of Electoral Legitimacy." Politics & Policy 50(5): 942–51. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12494. Fisher, Patrick. 2020. "Generational Replacement and the Impending Transformation of the American Electorate." Politics & Policy 48(1): 38–68. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12340. Stockemer, Daniel. 2013. "Corruption and Turnout in Presidential Elections: A Macro‐Level Quantitative Analysis." Politics & Policy 41(2): 189–212. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12012. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate how dominant media networks can manipulate voters in young democracies. During the first presidential election after the democratic transition in Brazil, TV Globo, the largest and most-watched network in the country, unexpectedly manipulated the news coverage of the last debate 2 days before the decisive second round. In a video segment, Globo unfavorably depicted the left-wing candidate, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Using the geographical distribution of broadcaster-specific TV signals and the timing of election events, we identify the effect of the manipulation net of the effect of the debate itself, showing that Globo's misleading reporting caused Lula to lose millions of votes. Our results showcase how the media can reshape an election in a single stroke, especially where the media is concentrated and politically inexperienced voters have few other sources of information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How does media exposure relate to support for radical right populist parties (RRPPs)? We contribute to this classic debate by analyzing the web browsing histories and survey responses of six thousand study participants in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK during the 2019 European Parliament election. Linking direct measures of online news exposure to voting behavior allows us to assess the effects of the salience of issues politicized by RRPPs on their electoral support. The likelihood to vote for RRPPs was higher when the EU was more salient in individual media diets, while exposure to the less salient issue of immigration did not increase the propensity to vote for RRPPs. Alongside consistent results for other party families and interactions with pre-existing voting intentions, the findings indicate that the electoral effects of online media are contingent on the overall salience of a specific issue and voters' predispositions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study provides the first empirical evidence of ethnic identity bias in the context of the dominant-party authoritarian electoral system in Russia's multi-ethnic republics. I run vote-choice survey experiments in Tatarstan, Buryatia, and Sakha, in which the respondents choose between the dominant United Russia candidate and a system-opposition A Just Russia candidate. First, I find that the party vote in previous elections is the best predictor of the vote and candidate evaluation in the experiment, revealing the traction of party support in Russia's electoral process. Second, titular voters demonstrate a strong preference for co-ethnic candidates regardless of the party they support. I rely on the arguments of social dominance theory to explain the prevalence of ethnic bias in voting among titular citizens of ethnic republics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Can anger appeals create support for separatism? This article presents the results of a region-wide field experiment conducted by a third-party local organization during the 2017 Catalan regional elections, estimating the effect of anger-inducing campaign messages on actual electoral outcomes. The organization randomly assigned municipalities to three conditions: proindependence anger-inducing leaflets depicting state repression, proindependence emotionally neutral leaflets, or no leaflets. Results show that anger-inducing leaflets increased the prosecessionist parties' vote share by 1%–1.7% compared to a zero increase in municipalities that received emotionally neutral leaflets or no leaflets. I assess the mechanisms and generalizability of the field experimental results in two independent survey experiments. These findings demonstrate how anger-inducing reminders of state repression through electoral campaigns can shape voting behavior in the real world, even in highly polarized settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When studying corruption's consequences for voter turnout, reverse causality hinders identification; corruption may affect turnout, but an engaged citizenry may also improve governance. However, because good instruments are hard to find, most studies do not adjust for the issue. Here, I surmount the endogeneity problem by predicting turnout among second generation Americans with the level of corruption in their ancestral country. The core intuition is that the best predictors of turnout—education, income, and civic duty—are endogenous to corruption, internationally mobile, and reproduced inter-generationally. Thus, corruption in one country can affect turnout among the American-born children of the country's émigrés. However, because turnout in US elections does not affect corruption in the ancestral country, there is no threat of reverse causality. Estimating the model with data from the Current Population Survey and the Varieties of Democracy Project reveals a statistically robust, substantively sizable negative effect of corruption on turnout. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We offer a candidate-centered amendment to incumbent-referendum models of presidential election outcomes that dominate the literature on post-WWII presidential elections. Our argument is that incumbent-challenger differences in character qualifications and issue concerns of the electorate should be included. These differentials, which recognize the advantage or disadvantage of the incumbent relative to the challenger party candidate have strong effects on election outcomes independent of the state of the economy, the number of years the incumbent party has held the White House, and presidential approval. Properly understood, in addition to the state of national affairs, presidential election outcomes are about the choice presented to the mass public. This added element means that candidates matter for election outcomes and electoral change in ways that have not been properly appreciated in existing scholarship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent years have seen a growing scholarly interest in the electoral participation of Turkish citizens living abroad. Despite an existing body of literature on the Turkish diaspora, which is predominantly Eurocentric in nature, there has been a noticeable lack of consistent research into the voting behavior of Turkish expatriates residing in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states with regard to their participation in home country elections. In this article, I delve into the voting patterns of Turkish expatriates living in the GCC states, with a specific focus on their political interests, party preferences, and ideological-religious perspectives within the context of Turkish-Gulf relations. Unlike Turkish expatriates in European states, who have tended to support conservative-nationalist parties, Turkish citizens residing in the conservative GCC states exhibited a preference for left wing-oriented parties in elections held between 2014 and 2018. However, there has been a subtle shift in this trend in the 2023 presidential and parliamentary elections, with some Turkish expatriates in the GCC states leaning toward the ruling alliance. What might be the potential factors influencing this change in voting behavior among certain Turks in the GCC states? I argue that the drivers behind this shift may be related to both the demographic profile of Turks residing in the GCC states as well as the impact of the Turkish foreign policy towards the broader Middle East, particularly concerning the GCC states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]