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Examination of the 1979 income status of 1975-80 in-migrants, out-migrants, and nonmigrants in 223 nonmetropolitan low-income counties in the South indicates that migration had very little influence on income, whether subpopulation mean incomes or aggregate dollar amounts. Contains 42 references. (SV)

In this paper we return to an issue often discussed in the literature regarding the relationship between highway expansion and population change. Typically it simply is assumed that this relationship is well established and understood. We argue, following a thorough review of the relevant literature, that the notion that highway expansion leads to increased population growth in the vicinity of the improved infrastructure finds only weak and often conflicting support. Using data on all major highway expansions in Wisconsin covering the period from the late-1960s through the 1990s from the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT), and census data at the minor civil division (MCD) level covering the period 1970 to 2000, we deploy the analytical tools of geographic information system (GIS) software, and theory from the expanding literature in spatial analysis and modeling, to take a fresh look at this relationship. Our analysis reveals that there is a modest relationship between highway expansion and population growth among MCDs within 10-20 miles of the expanded major highway. The causal structure, however, is complex. Our starting hypothesis argues that population growth precedes highway expansion as frequently as population growth results from highway expansion, but the data show otherwise. The dominant causal influence appears to flow from highway expansion to population growth.

By examining the 1979 income status of 1975-1980 immigrants, outmigrants, and nonmigrants, we gauged the income effects of migration for a group of chronic low-income counties in the nonmetropolitan South. The effects are demonstrated to be positive for the migrants themselves and negative for the low-income counties. In both instances, however, the effects are unexpectedly small. By considering both in- and outmigrants, we show that these counties experienced a remarkable degree of income replacement and also present evidence that the results are not primarily due to the particular migration period under study. The findings give additional evidence of the substantial inefficiency at work in American migration patterns.

Data collected in 1977 from 992 households in 37 fast-growing nonmetropolitan counties in the Upper Great Lakes Region show that newcomers over time tend to become as involved in their new communities as the oldtimers and socioeconomic status positively affects levels of formal community participation for both migrants and residents. (LC)

The potential effects of incorporating the U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) into the Appalachian Regional Commission (ARC), distressed county designation are evaluated. The distressed status accuracy results from the end of the year 1990, indicates that using the SAIPE would alter the distressed designation to a certain extent, but not radically.

The persistence of childhood poverty in the United States, a wealthy and developed country, continues to pose both an analytical dilemma and public policy challenge, despite many decades of research and remedial policy implementation. In this paper, our goals are twofold, though our primary focus is methodological. We attempt both to examine the relationship between space, time, and previously established factors correlated with childhood poverty at the county level in the continental United States as well as to provide an empirical case study to demonstrate an underutilized methodological approach. We analyze a spatially consistent dataset built from the 1990 and 2000 U.S. Censuses, and the 2006–2010 American Community Survey. Our analytic approach includes cross-sectional spatial models to estimate the reproduction of poverty for each of the reference years as well as a fixed effects panel data model, to analyze change in child poverty over time. In addition, we estimate a full space–time interaction model, which adjusts for spatial and temporal variation in these data. These models reinforce our understanding of the strong regional persistence of childhood poverty in the U.S. over time and suggest that the factors impacting childhood poverty remain much the same today as they have in past decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Demographic forecasting techniques do not perform particularly well for small areas. In this study we propose a spatio-temporal regression approach for small-area population forecasting that borrows strength from what has happened nearby and what has happened in the past. In particular, a regression model incorporating temporally lagged neighbour growth and neighbour characteristics is applied to examine population change at the minor civil division (MCD) governmental level in Wisconsin, USA since 1960. For each MCD, the population growth rate for 1980-1990 is regressed on its growth rate for 1970-1980, its various characteristics in 1980, neighbour growth rates for 1970-1980, and neighbour characteristics in 1980. The estimated regression coefficients are then used for projecting population in 2000. Accuracy of the forecasts is measured against the 2000 Census counts. The state's official MCD projections for 2000, which were based on an extrapolation projection - the most often used traditional population forecasting approach for small geographic areas - are taken as the 'gold standard' against which improvements through the regression formulations are sought. The projection evaluations reveal mixed results and do not suggest unambiguous preference for the spatio-temporal regression approach or the extrapolation projection. We discuss several reasons for the inability of our spatio-temporal forecasting model to outshine the simple extrapolation forecast. Although this is disappointing, the proposed approach is more solidly theoretically grounded and provides useful information to policy and decision makers at the community level regarding the consequences of various developmental strategies being adopted by themselves as well as by their neighbours. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Little systematic work has been undertaken to explain highway impacts on population change. In this study, the authors review the literature in regional economics and demographics in an attempt to shed light on the mechanisms by which investments in highway infrastructure influence population change. First, they categorize the indirect causal paths by which highways influence population change at the county and municipal levels. Then they propose a spatio-temporal approach to revisit highway effects on population change from the stage of highway development and areal characteristics specifically. Finally, it is concluded that at the county and municipal levels, the effect of highways on population change varies from preconstruction to postconstruction periods and across urban, suburban, and rural areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landscapes are shaped by complex relationships between human population, social structure, and environmental conditions. Traditionally, these factors have been studied separately within their respective disciplines. Few studies explore the relationship between indicators of social structure and ecological factors. Our objective was to examine the relationship between housing density, as recorded in the U.S. Census data, and a satellite land-cover classification in the northwest Wisconsin Pine Barrens region. We used a geographical information system (GIS) to integrate these two data sets. Our results revealed strong patterns. For example, housing densities were higher where water is more abundant, a possible case where land cover influences housing density. In other cases, housing density appears to influence land cover. These complex relationships are discussed. Our approach represents an initial methodology to integrate social and ecological data, a task needed to improve our understanding of rural societies and to facilitate broad-scale ecosystem management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

That newcomers to environmentally attractive rural areas typically oppose local growth and development in order to preserve what they have recently obtained is an idea first popularized more than 20 years ago by research on “exurbanites” who had moved to the distant fringes of the New York City commuting zone. Subsequent research has essentially confirmed this “gangplank syndrome” but, again, only in the context of rural areas which are adjacent to large cities. In spite of this contextually limited demonstration, recent studies of post‐1970 migration to nonmetropolitan areas — even to those rural places well outside the daily commuting range to a large city — frequently assume that newcomers will automatically adopt a last‐one‐in stance. In this paper the universal application of this syndrome is questioned and is found inappropriate. Interview data recently obtained in rapidly growing nonmetropolitan counties of the Upper Great Lakes Region fail to reveal any significant difference between newcomers and oldtimers in attitudes toward continued growth. The vast majority of both groups favors no limitation of the current growth. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The past decade has witnessed a significant turnaround in migration, characterized by increasing growth rates of nonmetropolitan counties. In the following analysis, the focus is on examining the patterns and determinants of occupational mobility and attainment among migrants entering the Upper Great Lakes Region. Data were collected in 1977 through structured telephone interviews with respondents in 992 households located in 37 fast-growing nonmetropolitan counties in the Upper Great lakes. Retirees aside, migrants overall tended to show greater upward than downward mobility with respect to changes from their previous to current occupation. Furthermore, respondents entering the mostly rural communities of the Upper Great Lakes attained higher occupational levels at the time of the interview than the residents they were joining. However, it was clear that not all migrants gained equally with respect to occupational mobility. Migrants showing the greatest gains included those who: (1) had resided longer in the community: (2) were married males: (3) had no children present in the household: (4) moved for job or economic related reasons: (5) had higher levels of education: and (6) were younger. The implication of these findings are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among the demographic changes which occurred in the United States during the 1970s was the well-documented reversal in the net flow of migrants between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties. Although a relatively large body of literature has provided a detailed demographic description of the population turnaround, few studies have addressed the consequences and implications of this "rural renaissance." Based on sample survey data collected from 992 household located in 37 fast-growing nonmetropolitan counties in the Upper Great Lakes Region, the patterns and levels of community involvement are analyzed for metropolitan-origin migrants, nonmetropolitan-origin migrants, and long-term residents. It is found that newcomers, over time, tend to become as involved in their new communities as the oldtimers they are joining. Moreover, socioeconomic status is shown to positively affect levels of formal participation in community activities for both migrants and residents. The implications of involvement for both the individual and community are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study was undertaken to test the proposition that the relative levels of death taxes in the different states contribute to the interstate migration flows of the U.S. elderly population. A statistical model incorporating state-to-state elderly migration flows and the state death tax levels for each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia was tested. The results of the analysis point to a separation of the decision made to leave a state of origin from the decision regarding where to move. The data do not support the idea that the level of death taxes within a given state contributes to the out-migration of elderly residents; however, once the decision to migrate has been made, there is evidence that the destination area will have lower death tax rates, but the effect is considerably less important than the impact of climate and other factors measured by the model. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]