Search

This work is dedicated to debias the Near-Earth Objects (NEO) population based on observations from the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescopes. We have applied similar methods used to develop the recently released NEO model generator (NEOMOD), once debiasing the NEO population using data from Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) G96 telescope. ATLAS is composed of four different telescopes. We first analyzed observational data from each of all four telescopes separately and later combined them. Our results highlight main differences between CSS and ATLAS, e.g., sky coverage and survey power at debiasing the NEO population. ATLAS has a much larger sky coverage than CSS, allowing it to find bright NEOs that would be constantly "hiding" from CSS. Consequently, ATLAS is more powerful than CSS at debiasing the NEO population for H $\lesssim$ 19. With its intrinsically greater sensitivity and emphasis on observing near opposition, CSS excels in the debiasing of smaller objects. ATLAS, as an all sky survey designed to find imminent hazardous objects, necessarily spends a significant fraction of time looking at places on the sky where objects do not appear, reducing its power for debiasing the population of small objects. We estimate a NEO population completeness of $\approx$ 88%$^{+3\%}_{-2\%}$ for H $<$ 17.75 and $\approx$ 36%$^{+1\%}_{-1\%}$ for H $<$ 22.25. Those numbers are similar to previous estimates (within error bars for H $<$ 17.75) from CSS, yet, around 3% and 8% smaller at their face values, respectively. We also confirm previous finding that the $\nu_6$ secular resonance is the main source of small and faint NEOs at H = 28, whereas the 3:1 mean motion resonance with Jupiter dominates for larger and brighter NEOs at H = 15., Comment: Accepted for publication in Icarus, 26 pages, 13 figures, 2 tables

The proper elements of asteroids are obtained from the instantaneous orbital elements by removing periodic oscillations produced by gravitational interactions with planets. They are unchanging in time, at least if chaotic dynamics and non-gravitational forces could be ignored, and can therefore be used to identify fragments of major collisions (asteroid families) that happened eons ago. Here we present a new catalog of proper elements for 1.25 million main belt asteroids. We explain the methodology, evaluate uncertainties, and discuss how the new catalog can be used to identify asteroid families. A systematic search for families yielded 153 cases not reported in Nesvorn\'y at al. (2015) -- 17 of these cases were identified in various other publications, 136 cases are new discoveries. There are now 274 families in the asteroid belt in total (plus a handful of families in the resonant Hilda population). We analyzed several compact families in detail. The new family around the middle belt asteroid (9332) 1990SB1 (9 members) is the youngest family found so far (estimated formation only 16-17 kyr ago). New families (1217) Maximiliana, (6084) Bascom, (10164) Akusekijima and (70208) 1999RX33 all formed 0.5-2.5 Myr ago. The (2110) Moore-Sitterly family is a close pair of relatively large bodies, 2110 and 44612, and 15 small members all located sunwards from 2110 and 44612, presumably a consequence of the Yarkovsky drift over the estimated family age (1.2-1.5 Myr). A systematic characterization of the new asteroid families is left for future work., Comment: ApJS, in press

So-called 'dark comets' are small, morphologically inactive near-Earth objects (NEOs) that exhibit nongravitational accelerations inconsistent with radiative effects. These objects exhibit short rotational periods (minutes to hours), where measured. We find that the strengths required to prevent catastrophic disintegration are consistent with those measured in cometary nuclei and expected in rubble pile objects. We hypothesize that these dark comets are the end result of a rotational fragmentation cascade, which is consistent with their measured physical properties. We calculate the predicted size-frequency distribution for objects evolving under this model. Using dynamical simulations, we further demonstrate that the majority of these bodies originated from the $\nu_6$ resonance, implying the existence of volatiles in the current inner main belt. Moreover, one of the dark comets, (523599) 2003 RM, likely originated from the outer main belt, although a JFC origin is also plausible. These results provide strong evidence that volatiles from a reservoir in the inner main belt are present in the near-Earth environment., Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures, 12 supplementary figures & pages. Accepted for publication in Icarus

We explore the Yarkovsky effect on small binary asteroids. While significant attention has been given to the binary YORP effect, the Yarkovsky effect is often overlooked. We develop an analytical model for the binary Yarkovsky effect, considering both the Yarkovsky-Schach and planetary Yarkovsky components, and verify it against thermophysical numerical simulations. We find that the Yarkovsky force could change the mutual orbit when the asteroid's spin period is unequal to the orbital period. Our analysis predicts new evolutionary paths for binaries. For a prograde asynchronous secondary, the Yarkovsky force will migrate the satellite towards the location of the synchronous orbit on ~100 kyr timescales, which could be faster than other synchronization processes such as YORP and tides. For retrograde secondaries, the Yarkovsky force always migrates the secondary outwards, which could produce asteroid pairs with opposite spin poles. Satellites spinning faster than the Roche limit orbit period (e.g. from ~4h to ~10h) will migrate inwards until they disrupt, reshape, or form a contact binary. We also predict a short-lived equilibrium state for asynchronous secondaries where the Yarkovsky force is balanced by tides. We provide calculations of the Yarkovsky-induced drift rate for known asynchronous binaries. If the NASA DART impact broke Dimorphos from synchronous rotation, we predict that Dimorphos's orbit will shrink by \dot a ~ 7 cm/yr, which can be measured by the Hera mission. We also speculate that the Yarkovsky force may have synchronized the Dinkinesh-Selam system after a possible merger of Selam's two lobes., Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures. Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal Letters

Our previous model (NEOMOD2) for the orbital and absolute magnitude distribution of Near Earth Objects (NEOs) was calibrated on the Catalina Sky Survey observations between 2013 and 2022. Here we extend NEOMOD2 to include visible albedo information from the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer. The debiased albedo distribution of NEOs can be approximated by the sum of two Rayleigh distributions with the scale parameters p_V,dark=0.03 and p_V,bright=0.17. We find evidence for smaller NEOs having (on average) higher albedos than larger NEOs; this is likely a consequence of the size-dependent sampling of different main belt sources. These inferences and the absolute magnitude distribution from NEOMOD2 are used to construct the debiased size distribution of NEOs. We estimate 830+/-60 NEOs with diameters D>1 km and 20,000+/-2,000 NEOs with D>140 m. The new model, NEOMOD3, is available via the NEOMOD Simulator -- an easy-to-operate code that can be used to generate user-defined samples (orbits, sizes and albedos) from the model., Comment: Icarus, in press

Modified Newtonian dynamics (MOND), which postulates a breakdown of Newton's laws of gravity/dynamics below some critical acceleration threshold, can explain many otherwise puzzling observational phenomena on galactic scales. MOND competes with the hypothesis of dark matter, which successfully explains the cosmic microwave background and large-scale structure. Here we provide the first solar-system test of MOND that probes the sub-critical acceleration regime. Using the Bekenstein-Milgrom AQUAL formulation, we simulate the evolution of myriads of test particles (planetesimals or comets) born in the trans-Neptunian region and scattered by the giant planets over the lifetime of the Sun to heliocentric distances of $10^2$-$10^5$ au. We include the effects of the Galactic tidal field and passing stars. While Newtonian simulations reproduce the distribution of binding energies of long-period and Oort-cloud comets detectable from Earth, MOND-based simulations do not. This conclusion is robust to plausible changes in the migration history of the planets, the migration history of the Sun, the MOND transition function, effects of the Sun's birth cluster, and the fading properties of long-period comets. For the most popular version of AQUAL, characterized by a gradual transition between the Newtonian and MOND regimes, our MOND-based simulations also fail to reproduce the orbital distribution of trans-Neptunian objects in the detached disk (perihelion > 38 au). Our results do not rule out some MOND theories more elaborate than AQUAL, in which non-Newtonian effects are screened on small spatial scales, at small masses, or in external gravitational fields comparable in strength to the critical acceleration., Comment: 45 pages, 23 figures

Jupiter Trojans (JTs) librate about the Lagrangian stationary centers L4 and L5 associated with this planet on a typically small-eccentricity and moderate-inclination heliocentric orbits. The physical and orbital properties of JTs provide important clues about the dynamical evolution of the giant planets in the early Solar System, as well as populations of planetesimals in their source regions. Here we use decade long observations from the Catalina Sky Survey (station G96) to determine the bias-corrected orbital and magnitude distributions of JTs. We distinguish the background JT population, filling smoothly the long-term stable orbital zone about L4 and L5 points, and collisional families. We find that the cumulative magnitude distribution of JTs (the background population in our case) has a steep slope for $H\leq 9$, followed with a moderately shallow slope till $H\simeq 14.5$, beyond which the distribution becomes even shallower. At $H=15$ we find a local power-law exponent $0.38\pm 0.01$. We confirm the asymmetry between the magnitude limited background populations in L4 and L5 clouds characterized by a ratio $1.45\pm 0.05$ for $H<15$. Our analysis suggests an asymmetry in the inclination distribution of JTs, with the L4 population being tighter and the L5 population being broader. We also provide a new catalog of the synthetic proper elements for JTs with an updated identification of statistically robust families (9 at L4, and 4 at L5). The previously known Ennomos family is found to consist of two, overlapping Deiphobus and Ennomos families., Comment: 46 pages, 36 figures, 4 tables, accepted for publication in The Astronomical Journal

Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) is a major survey of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs). In a recent work, we used CSS observations from 2005-2012 to develop a new population model of NEOs (NEOMOD). CSS's G96 telescope was upgraded in 2016 and detected over 10,000 unique NEOs since then. Here we characterize the NEO detection efficiency of G96 and use G96's NEO detections from 2013-2022 to update NEOMOD. This resolves previous model inconsistencies related to the population of large NEOs. We estimate there are 936+/-29 NEOs with absolute magnitude H<17.75 (diameter D>1 km for the reference albedo p_V=0.14). The slope of the NEO size distribution for H=25-28 is found to be relatively shallow (cumulative index 2.6) and the number of H<28 NEOs (D>9 m) is determined to be (1.20+/-0.04)x10^7. Small NEOs have a different orbital distribution and higher impact probabilities than large NEOs. We estimate 0.034+/-0.002 impacts of H<28 NEOs on the Earth per year, which is near the low end of the impact flux range inferred from atmospheric bolide observations. Relative to a model where all NEOs are delivered directly from the main belt, the population of small NEOs detected by G96 shows an excess of low-eccentricity orbits with a=1--1.6 au that appears to increase with H. We suggest that the population of very small NEOs is boosted by tidal disruption of large NEOs during close encounters to the terrestrial planets. When the effect of tidal disruption is (approximately) accounted for in the model, we estimate 0.06+/-0.01 impacts of H<28 NEOs on the Earth per year, which is more in line with the bolide data., Comment: Icarus, in press. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2306.09521

The origin of the Jupiter Trojan asteroids has long been a mystery. Dynamically, the population, which is considerably smaller than the main asteroid belt, librates around Jupiter's stable L4 and L5 Lagrange points, 60 deg ahead and behind Jupiter. It is thought that these bodies were captured into these orbits early in solar system history, but any capture mechanism must also explain why the Trojans have an excited inclination distribution, with some objects reaching inclinations of 35 deg. The Trojans themselves, individually and in aggregate, also have spectral and physical properties that appear consistent with many small bodies found in the outer solar system (e.g., irregular satellites, Kuiper belt objects). In this review, we assemble what is known about the Trojans and discuss various models for their origin and collisional evolution. It can be argued that the Trojans are unlikely to be captured planetesimals from the giant planet zone, but instead were once denizens of the primordial Kuiper belt, trapped by the events taking place during a giant planet instability. The Lucy mission to the Trojans is therefore well positioned to not only answer questions about these objects, but also about their place in planet formation and solar system evolution studies., Comment: 30 pages, 4 figures

We use observations from the Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) to determine the bias-corrected population of small members in four very young families down to sizes equivalent to several hundred meters. Using the most recent catalog of known asteroids, we identified members from four young families for which the population has grown appreciably over recent times. A large fraction of these bodies have also been detected by CSS. We used synthetic populations of asteroids, with their magnitude distribution controlled by a small number of parameters, as a template for the bias-corrected model of these families. Applying the known detection probability of the CSS observations, we could adjust these model parameters to match the observed (biased) populations in the young families. In the case of three families, Datura, Adelaide, and Rampo, we find evidence that the magnitude distribution transitions from steep to shallow slopes near $300$ to $400$ meters. Conversely, the Hobson family population may be represented by a single power-law model. The Lucascavin family has a limited population; no new members have been discovered over the past two decades. We consider a model of parent body rotational fission with the escaping secondary tidally split into two components (thereby providing three members within this family). In support of this idea, we find that no other asteroid with absolute magnitude $H\leq 18.3$ accompanies the known three members in the Lucascavin family. A similar result is found for the archetypal asteroid pair Rheinland--Kurpfalz., Comment: 32 pages, 27 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics

Significant nonradial, nongravitational accelerations with magnitudes incompatible with radiation-driven effects have been reported in seven small, photometrically inactive near-Earth objects. Two of these objects exhibit large transverse accelerations (i.e., within the orbital plane but orthogonal to the radial direction), and six exhibit significant out-of-plane accelerations. Here, we find that anisotropic outgassing resulting from differential heating on a nucleus with nonzero spin-pole obliquity, averaged over an eccentric orbit, can explain these accelerations for most of the objects. This balanced outgassing model depends on three parameters -- the spin pole orientation (R.A. and Dec.) and an acceleration magnitude. For these "dark comets" (excepting 2003 RM), we obtain parameter values that reproduce the observed nongravitational accelerations. We derive formulae for the component accelerations under certain assumptions for the acceleration scaling over heliocentric distance. Although we lack estimates of these objects' spin axes to confirm our values, this mechanism is nevertheless a plausible explanation for the observed accelerations, and produces accurate perturbations to the heliocentric motions of most of these objects. This model may also be applied to active objects outside of the dark comets group., Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures. Published in Icarus

The Scattered Disk Objects (SDOs) are a population of trans-Neptunian bodies with semimajor axes $50< a \lesssim 1000$ au and perihelion distances $q \gtrsim 30$ au. The detached SDOs with orbits beyond the reach of Neptune (roughly $q>35$~au) are of special interest here as an important constraint on the early evolution of the outer Solar System. The semimajor axis profile of detached SDOs at 50--500~au, as characterized from the Dark Energy Survey (DES), is radially extended, but previous dynamical models of Neptune's early migration produce a relatively compact profile. This problem is most likely related to Sun's birth environment in a stellar cluster. We perform new dynamical simulations that account for cluster effects and show that the orbital distribution of SDOs can be explained if a particularly close stellar encounter occurred early on (e.g., M dwarf with the mass $\simeq 0.2$ $M_\odot$ approaching the Sun at $\simeq 200$ au). For such an encounter to happen with a reasonably high probability the Sun must have formed in a stellar cluster with $\eta T \gtrsim 10^4$ Myr pc$^{-3}$, where $\eta$ is the stellar number density and $T$ is the Sun's residence time in the cluster.

The leading theory for the origin of Jupiter Trojans (JTs) assumes that JTs were captured to their orbits near the Lagrangian points of Jupiter during the early reconfiguration of the giant planets. The natural source region for the majority of JTs would then be the population of planetesimals born in a massive trans-Neptunian disk. If true, JTs represent the most accessible stable population of small Solar System bodies that formed in the outer regions of the Solar System. For this work, we compiled photometric datasets for about 1000 JTs and applied the convex inversion technique in order to assess their shapes and spin states. We obtained full solutions for $79$ JTs, and partial solutions for an additional $31$ JTs. We found that the observed distribution of the pole obliquities of JTs is broadly consistent with expectations from the streaming instability, which is the leading mechanism for the formation of planetesimals in the trans-Neptunian disk. The observed JTs' pole distribution has a slightly smaller prograde vs. retrograde asymmetry (excess of obliquities $>130^\circ$) than what is expected from the existing streaming instability simulations. However, this discrepancy can be plausibly reconciled by the effects of the post-formation collisional activity. Our numerical simulations of the post-capture spin evolution indicate that the JTs' pole distribution is not significantly affected by dynamical processes such as the eccentricity excitation in resonances, close encounters with planets, or the effects of nongravitational forces. However, a few JTs exhibit large latitude variations of the rotation pole and may even temporarily transition between prograde- and retrograde-rotating categories., Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A

The tumultuous early era of outer solar system evolution culminated when Neptune migrated across the primordial Kuiper belt (PKB) and triggered a dynamical instability among the giant planets. This event led to the ejection of approximately 99.9\% of the PKB (here called the destabilized population), heavy bombardment of the giant planet satellites, and the capture of Jupiter's Trojans. While this scenario has been widely tested using dynamical models, there have been fewer investigations into how the PKB, its destabilized population, and the Trojans experienced collisional evolution. Here we examined this issue for all three populations with the code Boulder. Our constraints included the size-frequency distributions (SFDs) of the Trojan asteroids and craters on the giant planet satellites. Using this combination, we solved for the unknown disruption law affecting bodies in these populations. The weakest ones, from an impact energy per mass perspective, were 20 m in diameter. Overall, collisional evolution produces a power-law-like shape for multikilometer Trojans and a wavy-shaped SFD in the PKB and destabilized populations. The latter can explain (i) the shapes of the ancient and younger crater SFDs observed on the giant planet satellites, (ii) the shapes of the Jupiter family and long-period comet SFDs, which experienced different degrees of collision evolution, and (iii) the present-day impact frequency of superbolides on Jupiter and smaller projectiles on Saturn's rings. Our model results also indicate that many observed comets, most which are smaller than 10 km in diameter, are likely to be gravitational aggregates formed by large-scale collision events., Comment: 95 pages, 19 figures. Accepted for publication in PSJ

Near Earth Objects (NEOs) are a transient population of small bodies with orbits near or in the terrestrial planet region. They represent a mid-stage in the dynamical cycle of asteroids and comets, which starts with their removal from the respective source regions -- the main belt and trans-Neptunian scattered disk -- and ends as bodies impact planets, disintegrate near the Sun, or are ejected from the Solar System. Here we develop a new orbital model of NEOs by numerically integrating asteroid orbits from main belt sources and calibrating the results on observations of the Catalina Sky Survey. The results imply a size-dependent sampling of the main belt with the $\nu_6$ and 3:1 resonances producing $\simeq 30$\% of NEOs with absolute magnitudes $H = 15$ and $\simeq 80$\% of NEOs with $H = 25$. Hence, the large and small NEOs have different orbital distributions. The inferred flux of $H<18$ bodies into the 3:1 resonance can be sustained only if the main-belt asteroids near the resonance drift toward the resonance at the maximal Yarkovsky rate ($\simeq 2 \times 10^{-4}$ au Myr$^{-1}$ for diameter $D=1$ km and semimajor axis $a=2.5$~au). This implies obliquities $\theta \simeq 0^\circ$ for $a<2.5$~au and $\theta \simeq 180^\circ$ for $a>2.5$~au, both in the immediate neighborhood of the resonance (the same applies to other resonances as well). We confirm the size-dependent disruption of asteroids near the Sun found in previous studies. An interested researcher can use the publicly available NEOMOD Simulator to generate user-defined samples of NEOs from our model., Comment: AJ

The lunar crater record features $\sim 50$ basins. The radiometric dating of Apollo samples indicates that the Imbrium basin formed relatively late -- from the planet formation perspective -- some $\simeq 3.9$ Ga. Here we develop a dynamical model for impactors in the inner solar system to provide context for the interpretation of the lunar crater record. The contribution of cometary impactors is found to be insignificant. Asteroids produced most large impacts on the terrestrial worlds in the last $\simeq 3$ Gyr. The great majority of early impactors were rocky planetesimals left behind at $\sim 0.5$--1.5 au after the terrestrial planet accretion. The population of terrestrial planetesimals was reduced by disruptive collisions in the first $t \sim 20$ Myr after the gas disk dispersal. We estimate that there were $\sim 4 \times 10^5$ diameter $d>10$ km bodies when the Moon formed (total planetesimal mass $\sim 0.015$ $M_{\rm Earth}$ at $t \sim 50$ Myr). The early bombardment of the Moon was intense. To accommodate $\sim 50$ known basins, the lunar basins that formed before $\simeq 4.35$--4.41 Ga must have been erased. The late formation of Imbrium occurs with a $\sim 15$--35\% probability in our model. About 20 $d>10$-km bodies were expected to hit the Earth between 2.5 and 3.5 Ga, which is comparable to the number of known spherule beds in the late Archean. We discuss implications of our model for the lunar/Martian crater chronologies, Late Veneer, and noble gases in the Earth atmosphere., Comment: Icarus, in press

We report statistically significant detections of non-radial nongravitational accelerations based on astrometric data in the photometrically inactive objects 1998 KY$_{26}$, 2005 VL$_1$, 2016 NJ$_{33}$, 2010 VL$_{65}$, 2016 RH$_{120}$, and 2010 RF$_{12}$. The magnitudes of the nongravitational accelerations are greater than those typically induced by the Yarkovsky effect and there is no radiation-based, non-radial effect that can be so large. Therefore, we hypothesize that the accelerations are driven by outgassing, and calculate implied H$_2$O production rates for each object. We attempt to reconcile outgassing induced acceleration with the lack of visible comae or photometric activity via the absence of surface dust and low levels of gas production. Although these objects are small and some are rapidly rotating, surface cohesive forces are stronger than the rotational forces and rapid rotation alone cannot explain the lack of surface debris. It is possible that surface dust was removed previously, perhaps via outgassing activity that increased the rotation rates to their present day value. We calculate dust production rates of order $\sim10^{-4}$ g s$^{-1}$ in each object assuming that the nuclei are bare, within the upper limits of dust production from a sample stacked image of 1998 KY$_{26}$ of $\dot{M}_{\rm Dust}<0.2$ g s$^{-1}$. This production corresponds to brightness variations of order $\sim0.0025\%$, which are undetectable in extant photometric data. We assess the future observability of each of these targets, and find that the orbit of 1998 KY$_{26}$ -- which is also the target for the extended Hayabusa2 mission -- exhibits favorable viewing geometry before 2025., Comment: 21 pages, 9 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in the Planetary Science Journal

The Moon holds important clues to the early evolution of the Solar System. Some 50 impact basins (crater diameter D>300 km) have been recognized on the lunar surface, implying that the early impact flux was much higher than it is now. The basin-forming impactors were suspected to be asteroids released from an inner extension of the main belt (1.8-2.0 au). Here we show that most impactors were instead rocky planetesimals left behind at 0.5-1.5 au after the terrestrial planet accretion. The number of basins expected from impacts of leftover planetesimals largely exceeds the number of known lunar basins, suggesting that the first 200 Myr of impacts is not recorded on the lunar surface. The Imbrium basin formation (age 3.92 Gyr; impactor diameter d~100 km) occurs with a 15-35% probability in our model. Imbrium must have formed unusually late to have only two smaller basins (Orientale and Schrodinger) forming afterwards. The model predicts 20 d>10-km impacts on the Earth 2.5-3.5 Gyr ago (Ga), which is comparable to the number of known spherule beds in the late Archean., Comment: ApJL, in press

Collisions are one of the key processes shaping planetary systems. Asteroid families are outcomes of such collisions still identifiable across our solar system. The families provide a unique view of catastrophic disruption phenomena and have been in the focus of planetary scientists for more than a century. Most of them are located in the main belt, a ring of asteroids between Mars and Jupiter. Here we review the basic properties of the families, discuss some recent advances, and anticipate future challenges. This review pays more attention to dynamic aspects such as family identification, age determination, and long-term evolution. The text, however, goes beyond that. Especially, we cover the details of young families that see the major advances in the last years, and we anticipate it will develop even faster in the future. We also discuss the relevance of asteroid families for water-ice content in the asteroid belt and our current knowledge on links between families and main-belt comets., Comment: Review paper to appear in CeMDA's topical collection on "Main Belt Dynamics"

Colors and binarity provide important constraints on the Kuiper belt formation. The cold classical objects at radial distance r=42-47 au from the Sun are predominantly very red (spectral slope s>17%) and often exist as equal-size binaries (~30% observed binary fraction). This has been taken as evidence for the in-situ formation of cold classicals. Interestingly, a small fraction (~10%) of cold classicals is less red with s<17%, and these "blue" bodies are often found in wide binaries. Here we study the dynamical implantation of blue binaries from r<42 au. We find that they can be implanted into the cold classical belt from a wide range of initial radial distances, but the survival of the widest blue binaries -- 2001 QW322 and 2003 UN284 -- implies formation at r>30 au. This would be consistent with the hypothesized less-red to very-red transition at 30

Asteroid families with ages younger than $1$ Myr offer an interesting possibility of studying the outcomes of asteroid disruptions that are little modified by subsequent evolutionary processes. We analyze a very young asteroid family associated with (18777) Hobson in the central part of the main belt. We aim at (i) understanding its peculiar size distribution, and (ii) setting an upper limit on the characteristic dispersal velocity at subkilometer sizes corresponding to the smallest visible Hobson members. We identified the Hobson family using an up-to-date asteroid catalog. A significant increase in the number of its known members allowed us to study their size distribution and compare it with computer simulations of catastrophic disruptions. Backward orbital integrations of the heliocentric orbits allowed us to confirm the previously suggested age of Hobson and helped to estimate limits of the ejection speed. The Hobson family has an unusual size distribution: two nearly equal-size bodies, followed by a population of smaller asteroids, whose distribution takes a characteristic power law. There are two possibilities to explain these data. Either a canonical impact onto a single parent body, requiring fine-tuned impact conditions that have not been studied so far, or an unconventional model for the parent object of the Hobson family, namely a binary with $\simeq 7-9$ km primary and a $\simeq 2.5$ km secondary. In the latter case, the primary was disrupted, leaving behind the largest remnant (18777) Hobson and a suite of subkilometer asteroids. The second largest asteroid, (57738) 2001 UZ160, is the nearly intact satellite of the parent binary. The excellent convergence of nominal orbits of Hobson members sets an upper limit of $\simeq (10-20)$ m s$^{-1}$ for the initial dispersal velocity of the known members, which is consistent with both formation models., Comment: 17 pages, 12 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics

Context: Asteroids with a diameter of up to a few dozen meters may spin very fast and complete an entire rotation within a few minutes. These small and fast-rotating bodies are thought to be monolithic objects because the gravitational force due to their small size is not strong enough to counteract the strong centripetal force caused by the fast rotation. Additionally, it is not clear whether the fast spin prevents dust and small particles (regolith) from being kept on their surface. Aims: We develop a model for constraining the thermal conductivity of the surface of the small, fast-rotating near-Earth asteroids. This model may suggest whether regolith is likely present on these objects. Methods: Our approach is based on the comparison of the measured Yarkovsky drift and a predicted value using a theoretical model that depends on the orbital, physical and thermal parameters of the object. The necessary parameters are either deduced from statistical distribution derived for near-Earth asteroids population or determined from observations with associated uncertainty. With this information, we performed Monte Carlo simulations and produced a probability density distribution for the thermal conductivity. Results: Applying our model to the superfast rotator asteroid (499998) 2011 PT, we find that the measured Yarkovsky drift can only be achieved when the thermal conductivity $K$ of the surface is low. The resulting probability density function for the conductivity is bimodal, with two most likely values being around 0.0001 and 0.005 W m$^{-1}$ K$^{-1}$. Based on this, we find that the probability that $K$ is lower than 0.1 W m$^{-1}$ K$^{-1}$ is at least 95\%. This low thermal conductivity might indicate that the surface of 2011 PT is covered with a thermal insulating layer, composed of a regolith-like material similar to lunar dust., Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A. 13 pages, 7 figures, 2 tables

Asteroid 2012 TC4 is a small ($\sim$10 m) near-Earth object that was observed during its Earth close approaches in 2012 and 2017. Earlier analyses of light curves revealed its excited rotation state. We collected all available photometric data from the two apparitions to reconstruct its rotation state and convex shape model. We show that light curves from 2012 and 2017 cannot be fitted with a single set of model parameters -- the rotation and precession periods are significantly different for these two data sets and they must have changed between or during the two apparitions. Nevertheless, we could fit all light curves with a dynamically self-consistent model assuming that the spin states of 2012 TC4 in 2012 and 2017 were different. To interpret our results, we developed a numerical model of its spin evolution in which we included two potentially relevant perturbations: (i) gravitational torque due to the Sun and Earth, and (ii) radiation torque known as the Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack (YORP) effect. Despite our model simplicity, we found that the role of gravitational torques is negligible. Instead, we argue that the observed change of its spin state may be plausibly explained as a result of the YORP torque. To strengthen this interpretation we verify that (i) the internal energy dissipation due to material inelasticity, and (ii) an impact with a sufficiently large interplanetary particle are both highly unlikely causes its observed spin state change. If true, this is the first case when the YORP effect has been detected for a tumbling body., Comment: 29 pages, 17 figures, Accepted for publication in AJ

Asteroid pairs, two objects that are not gravitationally bound to one another, but share a common origin, have been discovered in the Main belt and Hungaria populations. Such pairs are of major interest, as the study of their evolution under a variety of dynamical influences can indicate the time since the pair was created. To date, no asteroid pairs have been found in the Jovian Trojans, despite the presence of several binaries and collisional families in the population. The search for pairs in the Jovian Trojan population is of particular interest, given the importance of the Trojans as tracers of planetary migration during the Solar system's youth. Here we report a discovery of the first pair, (258656) 2002~ES$_{76}$ and 2013~CC$_{41}$, in the Jovian Trojans. The two objects are approximately the same size and are located very close to the L4 Lagrange point. Using numerical integrations, we find that the pair is at least $360$~Myr old, though its age could be as high as several Gyrs. The existence of the (258656) 2002~ES$_{76}$--2013~CC$_{41}$ pair implies there could be many such pairs scattered through the Trojan population. Our preferred formation mechanism for the newly discovered pair is through the dissociation of an ancient binary system, triggered by a sub-catastrophic impact, but we can not rule out rotation fission of a single object driven by YORP torques. A by-product of our work is an up-to-date catalog of Jovian Trojan proper elements, which we have made available for further studies., Comment: 15 figs. Accepted for publication in MNRAS

The Clarissa family is a small collisional family composed of primitive C-type asteroids. It is located in a dynamically stable zone of the inner asteroid belt. In this work we determine the formation age of the Clarissa family by modeling planetary perturbations as well as thermal drift of family members due to the Yarkovsky effect. Simulations were carried out using the Swift-rmvs4 integrator modified to account for the Yarkovsky and Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack (YORP) effects. We ran multiple simulations starting with different ejection velocity fields of fragments, varying proportion of initially retrograde spins, and also tested different Yarkovsky/YORP models. Our goal was to match the observed orbital structure of the Clarissa family which is notably asymmetrical in the proper semimajor axis. The best fits were obtained with the initial ejection velocities < ~20 m/s of diameter D=2 km fragments, 4:1 preference for spin-up by YORP, and assuming that 80% of small family members initially had retrograde rotation. The age of the Clarissa family was found to be 56+/-6 Myr for the assumed asteroid density 1.5 g/cm3. Small variation of density to smaller or larger value would lead to slightly younger or older age estimates. This is the first case where the Yarkovsky effect chronology has been successfully applied to an asteroid family younger than 100 Myr., Comment: The Astronomical Journal

Observations show that 100-km-class Kuiper belt objects (KBOs) can be divided in (at least) two color groups, hereafter red (R, g-i<1.2) and very red (VR, g-i>1.2), reflecting a difference in their surface composition. This is thought to imply that KBOs formed over a relatively wide range of radial distance, r. The cold classicals at 42r*, with 30

We extend the most recent orbital and absolute magnitude Near Earth Object (NEO) model (Granvik et al., 2018) to provide a statistical description of NEO geometric albedos. Our model is calibrated on NEOWISE albedo data for the NEO population and reproduces these data very well once a simple model for the NEOWISE observational biases is applied. The results are consistent with previous estimates. There are about 1,000 NEOs with diameter D>1km and the mean albedo to convert absolute magnitude into diameter is 0.147. We do not find any statistically significant evidence that the albedo distribution of NEOs depends on NEO size. Instead, we find evidence that the disruption of NEOs at small perihelion distances found in Granvik et al. (2016) occurs preferentially for dark NEOs. The interval between km-sized bodies striking the Earth should occur on average once every 750,000 years. Low and high albedo NEOs are well mixed in orbital space, but a trend remains with higher albedo objects being at smaller semimajor axes and lower albedo objects more likely found at larger semimajor axes., Comment: In press in Icarus

We studied asteroid clusters suggesting a possibility of at least two disruption events in their recent history (< 5 Myr). We searched for new members of known asteroid pairs and clusters and we verified their membership. We found four asteroid clusters, namely the clusters of (11842) Kap'bos, (14627) Emilkowalski, (63440) 2001 MD30 and (157123) 2004 NW5 that show at least two secondary separation events that occurred at significantly different times. We considered a possible formation mechanism for these clusters: The parent of an asteroid cluster was spun up to its critical rotation frequency, underwent a rotation fission and was slowed down by escape of the newly formed secondary/ies. Then the YORP effect spun up the primary again and it reached its critical rotation frequency and underwent another fission. We created a simple model to test whether this scenario is possible for the four clusters. We obtained a good agreement between the model and the cluster properties for the clusters of Kap'bos and (63440). For the cluster of Emilkowalski, the time needed for the primary to reach its critical frequency after the first fission event was predicted to be too long by a factor of several. We suspect, considering also its D type taxonomic classification and the existence of a dust band associated with the cluster, that the asteroid Emilkowalski may actually be a cometary nucleus. For the cluster of (157123), the final rotational frequency of the primary after the last fission event predicted by our model is in a good agreement with the observed rotation frequency of (157123). However, a separation of the older secondary is not possible in our model due to the deficiency of free energy needed for an escape of the large secondary. This could be due to an error in the H value of the secondary or the possibility that we did not find the real primary of this cluster.

We use published models of the early Solar System evolution with a slow, long-range and grainy migration of Neptune to predict the orbital element distributions and the number of modern-day Centaurs. The model distributions are biased by the OSSOS survey simulator and compared with the OSSOS Centaur detections. We find an excellent match to the observed orbital distribution, including the wide range of orbital inclinations which was the most troublesome characteristic to fit in previous models. A dynamical model, in which the original population of outer disk planetesimals was calibrated from Jupiter Trojans, is used to predict that OSSOS should detect 11+/-4 Centaurs with semimajor axis a<30 au, perihelion distance q>7.5 au and diameter D>10 km (absolute magnitude H_r<13.7 for a 6% albedo). This is consistent with 15 actual OSSOS Centaur detections with H_r<13.7. The population of Centaurs is estimated to be 21,000+/-8,000 for D>10 km. The inner scattered disk at 5010 km bodies and the Oort cloud should contain (5.0+/-1.9)x10^8 D>10 km comets. Population estimates for different diameter cutoffs can be obtained from the size distribution of Jupiter Trojans (N(>D) proportional to D^(-2.1) for 5

As indicated by their special characteristics, the cold classical Kuiper belt objects (KBOs) formed and survived at 42-47 au. Notably, they show a large fraction of equal-size binaries whose formation is probably related to the accretion of KBOs themselves. These binaries are uncommon in other --hot, resonant, scattered-- populations, which are thought to have been implanted from the massive disk below 30 au to >30 au during Neptune's migration. Here we highlight the possibility that equal-size binaries formed in the disk but were subsequently removed by impacts and/or dynamical effects (e.g., scattering encounters with Neptune). We determine the dependence of these processes on the size and separation of binary components. Our results indicate that tighter binaries, if they formed in the massive disk, have relatively good chances of survival (unless the disk was long-lived). In contrast, the widest binaries in the hot population, such as 2002 VF130, have a very low survival probability (<1%) even if the massive disk was short-lived. They may represent a trace of lucky survivors of a much larger population of the original disk binaries, or they formed at ~30-40~au and dodged the impact- and encounter-related perturbations that we studied here. We find that all known satellites of the largest KBOs would survive during the dynamical implantation of these bodies in the Kuiper belt. The low orbital eccentricities of Pluto's small moons may have been excited by impacts and/or encounters of the Pluto system to Neptune., Comment: Icarus, in press

We develop an evolutionary model of the long-period comet (LPC) population, starting from their birthplace in a massive trans-Neptunian disk that was dispersed by migrating giant planets. Most comets that remain bound to the Solar system are stored in the Oort cloud. Galactic tides and passing stars make some of these bodies evolve into observable comets in the inner Solar system. Our approach models each step in a full-fledged numerical framework. Subsequent analysis consists of applying plausible fading models and computing the original orbits to compare with observations. Our results match the observed semimajor axis distribution of LPCs when Whipple's power-law fading scheme with an exponent $\kappa= 0.6^{+0.1}_{-0.2}$ is adopted. The cumulative perihelion ($q$) distribution is fit well by a linear increase plus a weak quadratic term. Beyond $q = 15$~au, however, the population increases steeply and the isotropy of LPC orbital planes breaks. We find tentative evidence from the perihelion distribution of LPCs that the returning comets are depleted in supervolatiles and become active due to water ice sublimation for $q\leq 3$ au. Using an independent calibration of the population of the initial disk, our predicted LPC flux is smaller than observations suggest by a factor of $\simeq 2$. Current data only characterize comets from the outer Oort cloud (semimajor axes $\gtrsim 10^4$~au). A true boost in understanding the Oort cloud's structure should result from future surveys when they detect LPCs with perihelia beyond $15$~au. Our results provide observational predictions of what can be expected from these new data., Comment: 35 pages, 22 figures, AAS journals in press

The recent close approach of the NEA (3200) Phaethon offered a rare opportunity to obtain high-quality observational data. We used the newly obtained optical light curves to improve the spin and shape model of Phaethon and to determine its surface physical properties derived by thermophysical modeling. We also used the available astrometric observations of Phaethon, including those obtained by the Arecibo radar and the Gaia spacecraft, to constrain the secular drift of the orbital semimajor axis. This constraint allowed us to estimate the bulk density by assuming that the drift is dominated by the Yarkovsky effect. We used the convex inversion model to derive the 3D shape model of Phaethon, and a detailed numerical approach for an accurate analysis of the Yarkovsky effect. We obtained a unique solution for Phaethon's pole orientation at $(318,-47)^{\circ}$ ecliptic longitude and latitude (uncertainty of $5^{\circ}$), and confirm the previously reported thermophysical properties ($D=5.1\pm0.2$ km, $\Gamma=600\pm200$ SI). Phaethon has a top-like shape with possible north-south asymmetry. The characteristic size of the regolith grains is 1-2 cm. The orbit analysis reveals a secular drift of the semimajor axis of $-(6.9\pm1.9)\times 10^{-4}$ au Myr$^{-1}$. With the derived volume-equivalent size of 5.1~km, the bulk density $\rho$ is $1.67\pm0.47$ g cm$^{-3}$. If the size is slightly larger $\sim5.7$ km, as suggested by radar data, $\rho$ would decrease to $1.48\pm0.42$ g cm$^{-3}$. We further investigated the suggestion that Phaethon may be in a cluster with asteroids (155140) 2005 UD and (225416) 1999 YC that was formed by rotational fission of a critically spinning parent body. Phaethon's $\rho$ is consistent with typical values for large ($>100$ km) C-complex asteroids and supports its association with asteroid (2) Pallas. These findings render a cometary origin unlikely for Phaethon., Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A

The orbital distribution of trans-Neptunian objects provides strong evidence for the radial migration of Neptune. The outer planets' orbits are thought to have become unstable during the early stages with Jupiter having scattering encounters with a Neptune-class planet. As a consequence, Jupiter jumped inward by a fraction of an au, as required from inner solar system constraints, and obtained its current orbital eccentricity. The timing of these events is often linked to the lunar Late Heavy Bombardment that ended ~700 Myr after the dispersal of the protosolar nebula (t_0). Here we show instead that planetary migration started shortly after t_0. Such early migration is inferred from the survival of the Patroclus-Menoetius binary Jupiter Trojan. The binary formed at t <~ t_0 within a massive planetesimal disk once located beyond Neptune. The longer the binary stayed in the disk, the greater the likelihood that collisions would strip its components from one another. The simulations of its survival indicate that the disk had to have been dispersed by migrating planets within <100 Myr of t_0. This constraint implies that the planetary migration is unrelated to the formation of the youngest lunar basins., Comment: published in Nature Astronomy

The debiased absolute-magnitude and orbit distributions as well as source regions for near-Earth objects (NEOs) provide a fundamental frame of reference for studies of individual NEOs and more complex population-level questions. We present a new four-dimensional model of the NEO population that describes debiased steady-state distributions of semimajor axis, eccentricity, inclination, and absolute magnitude $H$ in the range $17

The Rosetta spacecraft observations revealed that the nucleus of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko consists of two similarly sized lobes connected by a narrow neck. Here we evaluate the possibility that 67P is a collapsed binary. We assume that the progenitor of 67P was a binary and consider various physical mechanisms that could have brought the binary components together, including small-scale impacts and gravitational encounters with planets. We find that 67P could be a primordial body (i.e., not a collisional fragment) if the outer planetesimal disk lasted <10 Myr before it was dispersed by migrating Neptune. The probability of binary collapse by impact is 30% for tightly bound binaries. Most km-class binaries become collisionally dissolved. Roughly 10% of the surviving binaries later evolve to become contact binaries during the disk dispersal, when bodies suffer gravitational encounters to Neptune. Overall, the processes described in this work do not seem to be efficient enough to explain the large fraction (~67%) of bi-lobed cometary nuclei inferred from spacecraft imaging., Comment: The Astronomical Journal, in press

On February 6th, 2018 SpaceX launched a Tesla Roadster on a Mars-crossing orbit. We perform N-body simulations to determine the fate of the object over the next 15 Myr. The orbital evolution is initially dominated by close encounters with the Earth. While a precise orbit can not be predicted beyond the next several centuries due to these repeated chaotic scatterings, one can reliably predict the long-term outcomes by statistically analyzing a large suite of possible trajectories with slightly perturbed initial conditions. Repeated gravitational scatterings with Earth lead to a random walk. Collisions with the Earth, Venus and the Sun represent primary sinks for the Roadster's orbital evolution. Collisions with Mercury and Mars, or ejections from the Solar System by Jupiter, are highly unlikely. We calculate a dynamical half-life of the Tesla of approximately 15 Myr, with some 22%, 12% and 12% of Roadster orbit realizations impacting the Earth, Venus, and the Sun within one half-life, respectively. Because the eccentricities and inclinations in our ensemble increase over time due to mean-motion and secular resonances, the impact rates with the terrestrial planets decrease beyond a few million years, whereas the impact rate on the Sun remains roughly constant., Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, plots updated with data from 15Myr simulations, submitted to MNRAS

The age of a young asteroid family can be determined by tracking the orbits of family members backward in time and showing that they converge at some time in the past. Here we consider the Veritas family. We find that the membership of the Veritas family increased enormously since the last detailed analysis of the family. Using backward integration, we confirm the convergence of nodal longitudes $\Omega$, and, for the first time, also obtain a simultaneous convergence of pericenter longitudes $\varpi$. The Veritas family is found to be $8.23^{+0.37}_{-0.31}$~Myr old. To obtain a tight convergence of $\Omega$ and $\varpi$, as expected from low ejection speeds of fragments, the Yarkovsky effect needs to be included in the modeling of the past orbital histories of Veritas family members. Using this method, we compute the Yarkovsky semi-major axis drift rates, ${\rm d}a/{\rm d}t$, for 274 member asteroids. The distribution of ${\rm d}a/{\rm d}t$ values is consistent with a population of C-type objects with low densities and low thermal conductivities. The accuracy of individual ${\rm d}a/{\rm d}t$ measurements is limited by the effect of close encounters of member asteroids to (1) Ceres and other massive asteroids, which cannot be evaluated with confidence., Comment: 20 pages, 19 figures, 1 table. Accepted for publication in MNRAS

Context: Large all-sky surveys provide us with a lot of photometric data that are sparse in time (typically few measurements per night) and can be potentially used for the determination of shapes and rotational states of asteroids. The method which is generally used to derive these parameters is the lightcurve inversion. However, for most asteroids their sparse data are not accurate enough to derive a unique model and the lightcurve inversion method is thus not very efficient. Aims: To fully utilize photometry sparse in time, we developed a new simplified model and applied it on the data from the Lowell photometric database. Our aim was to derive spin axis orientations and shape elongations of asteroids and to reconstruct distributions of these parameters for selected subpopulations to find if there are some differences. Methods: We model asteroids as geometrically scattering triaxial ellipsoids. Observed values of mean brightness and the dispersion of brightness are compared with computed values obtained from the parameters of the model -- ecliptical longitude $\lambda$ and latitude $\beta$ of the pole and the ratios $a/b$, $b/c$ of axes of the ellipsoid. These parameters are optimized to get the best agreement with the observation. Results: We found that the distribution of $\lambda$ for main-belt asteroids is not uniform (in agreement with findings of Bowell et al., 2014, M&PS, 49, 95) and is dependent on the inclination of orbit. Surprisingly, the non-uniformity of $\lambda$ distribution is larger for asteroids residing on low-inclination orbits. We also studied distributions of $a/b$ for several groups of asteroids and found that small asteroids ($D<25\,$km) are on average more elongated than large ones., Comment: 10 pages; Accepted for publication in A&A

The dynamical structure of the Kuiper belt beyond 50 au is not well understood. Here we report results of a numerical model with long-range, slow and grainy migration of Neptune. The model implies that bodies scattered outward by Neptune to semimajor axes a>50 au often evolve into resonances which subsequently act to raise the perihelion distances of orbits to q>40 au. The implication of the model is that the orbits with 5040 au should cluster near (but not in) the resonances with Neptune (3:1 at a=62.6 au, 4:1 at a=75.9 au, 5:1 at a=88.0 au, etc.). The recent detection of several distant Kuiper Belt Objects (KBOs) near resonances is consistent with this prediction, but it is not yet clear whether the orbits are really non-resonant as our model predicts. We estimate from the model that there should presently be ~1600-2400 bodies at the 3:1 resonance and ~1000-1400 bodies at the 4:1 resonance (for q>40 au and diameters D>100 km). These results favorably compare with the population census of distant KBOs inferred from existing observations., Comment: ApJ Letters

The Karin cluster is a young asteroid family thought to have formed only $\simeq 5.75$~My ago. The young age can be demonstrated by numerically integrating the orbits of Karin cluster members backward in time and showing the convergence of the perihelion and nodal longitudes (as well as other orbital elements). Previous work has pointed out that the convergence is not ideal if the backward integration only accounts for the gravitational perturbations from the Solar System planets. It improves when the thermal radiation force known as the Yarkovsky effect it is accounted for. This argument can be used to estimate the spin obliquities of the Karin cluster members. Here we take advantage of the fast growing membership of the Karin cluster and show that the obliquity distribution of diameter $D\simeq 1-2$ km Karin asteroids is bimodal, as expected if the YORP effect acted to move obliquities toward the extreme values ($0^\circ$ or $180^\circ$). The measured magnitude of the effect is consistent with the standard YORP model. The surface thermal conductivity is inferred to be $0.07$-0.2 W m$^{-1}$ K$^{-1}$ (thermal inertia $\simeq 300-500$ J m$^{-2}$ K$^{-1}$s$^{-1/2}$). We find that the strength of the YORP effect is roughly $\simeq 0.7$ of the nominal strength obtained for a collection of random Gaussian spheroids. These results are consistent with a surface composed of rough, rocky regolith. The obliquity values predicted here for 480 members of the Karin cluster can be validated by the light-curve inversion method., Comment: 47 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in AJ

The Kuiper belt is a population of icy bodies beyond the orbit of Neptune. The complex orbital structure of the Kuiper belt, including several categories of objects inside and outside of resonances with Neptune, emerged as a result of Neptune's migration into an outer planetesimal disk. An outstanding problem with the existing migration models is that they invariably predict excessively large resonant populations, while observations show that the non-resonant orbits are in fact common (e.g., the main belt population is 2-4 times larger than Plutinos in the 3:2 resonance). Here we show that this problem can resolved if it is assumed that Neptune's migration was grainy, as expected from scattering encounters of Neptune with massive planetesimals. The grainy migration acts to destabilize resonant bodies with large libration amplitudes, a fraction of which ends up on stable non-resonant orbits. Thus, the non-resonant--to--resonant ratio obtained with the grainy migration is higher, up to ~10 times higher for the range of parameters investigated here, than in a model with smooth migration. The grainy migration leads to a narrower distribution of the libration amplitudes in the 3:2 resonance. The best fit to observations is obtained when it is assumed that the outer planetesimal disk below 30 AU contained 1000-4000 Plutos, or ~1000 bodies twice as massive as Pluto. We find that the probability for an outer disk object to end up on a stable orbit in the Kuiper belt is ~10^{-3}. Together, these results are consistent with having only two (known) Pluto-mass bodies in the Kuiper belt today (Pluto and Eris). The combined mass of Pluto-class objects in the original disk was ~2-8 Earth masses (M_Earth), which represents 10-40% of the estimated disk mass (M_disk ~ 20 M_Earth)., Comment: The Astrophysical Journal

We study the effects of planetary late migration on the gas giants obliquities. We consider the planetary instability models from Nesvorny & Morbidelli (2012), in which the obliquities of Jupiter and Saturn can be excited when the spin-orbit resonances occur. The most notable resonances occur when the $s_7$ and $s_8$ frequencies, changing as a result of planetary migration, become commensurate with the precession frequencies of Jupiter's and Saturn's spin vectors. We show that Jupiter may have obtained its present obliquity by crossing of the $s_8$ resonance. This would set strict constrains on the character of migration during the early stage. Additional effects on Jupiter's obliquity are expected during the last gasp of migration when the $s_7$ resonance was approached. The magnitude of these effects depends on the precise value of the Jupiter's precession constant. Saturn's large obliquity was likely excited by capture into the $s_8$ resonance. This probably happened during the late stage of planetary migration when the evolution of the $s_8$ frequency was very slow, and the conditions for capture into the spin-orbit resonance with $s_8$ were satisfied. However, whether or not Saturn is in the spin-orbit resonance with $s_8$ at the present time is not clear, because the existing observations of Saturn's spin precession and internal structure models have significant uncertainties., Comment: 29 pages, 8 figures, accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal

We explored the statistical and compositional link between Chelyabinsk meteoroid and potentially hazardous asteroid (86039) 1999 NC43 to investigate their proposed relation proposed by Borovi\v{c}ka et al. (2013). Using detailed computation we confirm that the orbit of the Chelyabinsk impactor is anomalously close to 1999 NC43. We find about (1-3) x 10-4 likelihood of that to happen by chance. Taking the standpoint that the Chelyabinsk impactor indeed separated from 1999 NC43 by a cratering or rotational fission event, we run a forward probability calculation, which is an independent statistical test. However, we find this scenario is unlikely at the about (10-3 -10-2) level. We also verified compositional link between Chelyabinska and 1999NC43. Mineralogical analysis of Chelyabinsk (LL chondrite) and (8) Flora (the largest member of the presumed LL chondrite parent family) shows that their olivine and pyroxene chemistries are similar to LL chondrites. Similar analysis of 1999 NC43 shows that its olivine and pyroxene chemistries are more similar to L chondrites than LL chondrites (like Chelyabinsk). We also took photometric observations of 1999 NC43 over 54 nights during two apparitions (2000, 2014). The lightcurve of 1999 NC43 resembles simulated lightcurves of tumblers in Short-Axis Mode with the mean wobbling angle 20-30 deg. While, a mechanism of the non-principal axis rotation excitation is unclear, we can rule out the formation of asteroid in disruption of its parent body as a plausible cause, as it is unlikely that the rotation of an asteroid fragment from catastrophic disruption would be nearly completely halted. Considering all these facts, we find the proposed link between the Chelyabinsk meteoroid and the asteroid 1999 NC43 to be unlikely., Comment: 52 pages, 13 figures, 3 tables

The Design Reference Asteroid (DRA) is a compilation of all that is known about the OSIRIS-REx mission target, asteroid (101955) Bennu. It contains our best knowledge of the properties of Bennu based on an extensive observational campaign that began shortly after its discovery, and has been used to inform mission plan development and flight system design. The DRA will also be compared with post-encounter science results to determine the accuracy of our Earth-based characterization efforts. The extensive observations of Bennu in 1999 has made it one of the best-characterized near-Earth asteroids. Many physical parameters are well determined, and span a number of categories: Orbital, Bulk, Rotational, Radar, Photometric, Spectroscopic, Thermal, Surface Analog, and Environment Properties. Some results described in the DRA have been published in peer-reviewed journals while others have been reviewed by OSIRIS-REx Science Team members and/or external reviewers. Some data, such as Surface Analog Properties, are based on our best knowledge of asteroid surfaces, in particular those of asteroids Eros and Itokawa. This public release of the OSIRIS-REx Design Reference Asteroid is a annotated version of the internal OSIRIS-REx document OREX-DOCS-04.00-00002, Rev 9 (accepted by the OSIRIS-REx project on 2014-April-14). The supplemental data products that accompany the official OSIRIS-REx version of the DRA are not included in this release. We are making this document available as a service to future mission planners in the hope that it will inform their efforts., Comment: 116 pages, 42 figures, 10 tables

Saturn's moon Iapetus has an orbit in a transition region where the Laplace surface is bending from the equator to the orbital plane of Saturn. The orbital inclination of Iapetus to the local Laplace plane is ~8 deg, which is unexpected, because the inclination should be ~0 if Iapetus formed from a circumplanetary disk on the Laplace surface. It thus appears that some process has pumped up Iapetus's inclination while leaving its eccentricity near zero (e=0.03 at present). Here we examined the possibility that Iapetus's inclination was excited during the early solar system instability when encounters between Saturn and ice giants occurred. We found that the dynamical effects of planetary encounters on Iapetus's orbit sensitively depend on the distance of the few closest encounters. In four out of ten instability cases studied here, the orbital perturbations were too large to be plausible. In one case, Iapetus's orbit was practically unneffected. In the remaining five cases, the perturbations of Iapetus's inclination were adequate to explain its present value. In three of these cases, however, Iapetus's eccentricity was excited to 0.1-0.25, and it is not clear whether it could have been damped to its present value (0.03) by some subsequent process (e.g., tides and dynamical friction from captured irregular satellites do not seem to be strong enough). Our results therefore imply that only 2 out of 10 instability cases (~20%) can excite Iapetus's inclination to its present value (~30% of trials lead to >5 deg) while leaving its orbital eccentricity low., Comment: Astronomical Journal