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Binary logistic regression is one of the most widely used statistical tools. The method uses odds, log odds, and odds ratios, which are difficult to understand and interpret. Understanding of logistic regression tends to fall down in one of three ways: (1) Many students and researchers come to believe that an odds ratio translates directly into relative probabilities. (2) Alternatively, they learn that coefficients tell us whether the variables make the outcome more or less likely, without knowing how to interpret changes in the odds. (3) They may be instructed in how to calculate predicted probabilities, but the additional steps are too complicated for them to follow. Our key aim is to highlight and correct the common mistake of confusing differences in odds with relative risks. Simply reporting the odds ratio is unhelpful, however, so we describe an easy method of estimating probabilities for both binary and continuous variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Religion is odd: some people think that it is the most important thing in the world and others do not care about it at all. Most people fall somewhere between [...]

One way of measuring religious affiliation is to look at rites of initiation such as baptism. English statistics show that for the first time since the Church of England was founded, less than half the nation is Anglican on this criterion. The pattern of formal religious transmission changed during the Second World War. Previously christening was quasi-universal, and the Church of England was the preferred provider. By the end of the war baptism was evidently optional, and chosen principally by parents whose religious identities matched. Further analysis suggests that affiliation now tends to be lost following marriage to someone from a different religious background, though the USA differs from Europe in this respect. A demographic theory of advanced secularization is outlined that specifies a proximal cause for declining religious affiliation, and provides tools for predicting the changes to be expected over future decades. The theory also helps to explain why affiliation may fall most quickly where there is most religious diversity. KEYWORDS: Intermarriage; homogamy; secularization; baptism; Church of England; religious affiliation

HOLDSWORTH C., VOAS D. and TRANMER M. (2002) Leaving home in Spain: when, where and why?, Reg. Studies 36, 989-1004. Spanish transitions out of the parental home are characterized by older ages of leaving and a close association between leaving home and partnership formation, compared to countries in northern Europe. Yet throughout Spain we find important regional variation in the intensity and timing of leaving home. This paper provides new insights into the causes of this regional diversity focusing on both economic and cultural dimensions. The analyses are based on multilevel models that control for individual and provincial characteristics. Economic factors play a vital role at the individual level, yet are less important at the provincial level. Regional variation is more closely associated with the impact of both the timing of partnership formation and the relationship between leaving home and getting married. These distinctive regional patterns of leaving home and partnership formation are discussed wi th reference to historical traditions of family and household formation. Leaving home Spain Regional differences Multilevel models HOLDSWORTH C., VOAS D. et TRANMER M. (2002) Partir de chez ses parents en Espagne: quand, ou, pourquoi?, Reg. Studies 36, 989-1004. Par rapport aux pays europeens septentrionaux, en Espagne la transition du foyer de ses parents a lieu a un age plus eleve et se fait par des partenaires. Touj ours est-il que clans toute 1'Espagne on trouve d'importantes variations regionales en termes du taux de depart et du moment choisi pour partir de chez ses parents. Get article cherche a fournir de nouveaux apercus sur les causes de cette variation regionale, portant sur les aspects economiques et culturels. Les analyses sont fondees sur des modeles a niveaux multiples qui tiennent compte des caracteristiques individuelles et provinciales. Des facteurs economiques jouent un role primordial au niveau individuel. Cependant, ils s'averent moms importants sur le plan provincial. La variation regionale se rapporte plus etroitement a l'impact du moment choisi pour devenir partenaires et du rapport entre Ia decision de partir de chez ses parents et la decision de se marier. On discute de ces distributions regionales particulieres en ce qui concerne les traditions historiques propres a l'etablissement des familles et des foyers. Partir de chez ses parents L'Espagne Variation regionale Modeles a niveaux multiples HOLDSWORTH C., VOAS D. und TRANMER M. (2002) Verlassen des Elternhauses in Spanien: Wann, Wo und Warum?, Reg. Studies 36, 989-1004. Tm Verhaltnis zu Landern in Nordeuropa ist der Fortgang vom Elternhaus in Spanien durcis hohere Altersstufen beim Zeitpunkt des Auszugs und eine engere Verbindung zwischen Fortzug und Eingehen einer Partnerschaft gekennzeichnet. Doch in ganz Spanien trifft man auf bedeutende regionale Schwankungen in Intensitat und Zeitpunkt des Weggangs. Dieser Aufsatz verrnittelt neue Einsichten in die Ursachen fur diese regionale Vielfalt, wobei er sich sowohi auf wirtschaftliche als auch auf kulturelle Dimensionen konzentriert. Die Analysen sttitzen sich auf vielschichtige Modelle, die individuelle und provinzielle Eigenschaften uberwachen. Auf personlicher Ebene spielen wirtschaftliche Faktoren eine lebenswichtige Rolle, doch auf Provinzebene sind sie weniger akut. Regionale Schwankungen sind enger mit der Auswirkung des Zeitpunktes der Partnerschaftsbildung und mit der Beziehung zwischen Ve rlassen des Elternhauses und Eheschlie[ss]ung verbunden. Diese unverkennbaren, regionalen Muster des Fortgangs vom Elternhaus und Eingehen einer Partnerschaft werden im Hinblick auf historische Traditionen der Familien-und Haushaltsgrundung besprochen. Verlassen des Elternhauses Spanien Regionale Unterschiede Vielschichtige Modelle