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2. Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1923–1994), (S0140673618322256), (10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32225-6))
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Stanaway, J.D. Afshin, A. Gakidou, E. Lim, S.S. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abera, S.F. Abil, O.Z. Abraha, H.N. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Acharya, P. Adamu, A.A. Adane, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adedoyin, R.A. Adekanmbi, V. Ademi, Z. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adib, M.G. Admasie, A. Adsuar, J.C. Afanvi, K.A. Afarideh, M. Agarwal, G. Aggarwal, A. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.B. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akbari, M.E. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Al-Aly, Z. Al-Eyadhy, A. Al-Mekhlafi, H.M. Alahdab, F. Alam, K. Alam, S. Alam, T. Alashi, A. Alavian, S.M. Alene, K.A. Ali, K. Ali, S.M. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Alsharif, U. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Ammar, W. Anber, N.H. Anderson, J.A. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansha, M.G. Antó, J.M. Antonio, C.A.T. Anwari, P. Appiah, L.T. Appiah, S.C.Y. Arabloo, J. Aremu, O. Ärnlöv, J. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Ataro, Z. Ausloos, M. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayer, R. Ayuk, T.B. Azzopardi, P.S. Babazadeh, A. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Balakrishnan, K. Bali, A.G. Ball, K. Ballew, S.H. Banach, M. Banoub, J.A.M. Barac, A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Barrero, L.H. Basu, S. Baune, B.T. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Béjot, Y. Bekele, B.B. Bekru, E.T. Belay, E. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Bergeron, G. Berhane, A. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Beuran, M. Beyranvand, T. Bhala, N. Bhalla, A. Bhattarai, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bilano, V. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Bisanzio, D. Biswas, T. Bjørge, T. Blacker, B.F. Bleyer, A. Borschmann, R. Bou-Orm, I.R. Boufous, S. Bourne, R. Brady, O.J. Brauer, M. Brazinova, A. Breitborde, N.J.K. Brenner, H. Briko, A.N. Britton, G. Brugha, T. Buchbinder, R. Burnett, R.T. Busse, R. Butt, Z.A. Cahill, L.E. Cahuana-Hurtado, L. Campos-Nonato, I.R. Cárdenas, R. Carreras, G. Carrero, J.J. Carvalho, F. Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A. Castillo Rivas, J. Castro, F. Catalá-López, F. Causey, K. Cercy, K.M. Cerin, E. Chaiah, Y. Chang, H.-Y. Chang, J.-C. Chang, K.-L. Charlson, F.J. Chattopadhyay, A. Chattu, V.K. Chee, M.L. Cheng, C.-Y. Chew, A. Chiang, P.P.-C. Chimed-Ochir, O. Chin, K.L. Chitheer, A. Choi, J.-Y.J. Chowdhury, R. Christensen, H. Christopher, D.J. Chung, S.-C. Cicuttini, F.M. Cirillo, M. Cohen, A.J. Collado-Mateo, D. Cooper, C. Cooper, O.R. Coresh, J. Cornaby, L. Cortesi, P.A. Cortinovis, M. Costa, M. Cousin, E. Criqui, M.H. Cromwell, E.A. Cundiff, D.K. Daba, A.K. Dachew, B.A. Dadi, A.F. Damasceno, A.A.M. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Darby, S.C. Dargan, P.I. Daryani, A. Das Gupta, R. Das Neves, J. Dasa, T.T. Dash, A.P. Davitoiu, D.V. Davletov, K. De la Cruz-Góngora, V. De La Hoz, F.P. De Leo, D. De Neve, J.-W. Degenhardt, L. Deiparine, S. Dellavalle, R.P. Demoz, G.T. Denova-Gutiérrez, E. Deribe, K. Dervenis, N. Deshpande, A. Des Jarlais, D.C. Dessie, G.A. Deveber, G.A. Dey, S. Dharmaratne, S.D. Dhimal, M. Dinberu, M.T. Ding, E.L. Diro, H.D. Djalalinia, S. Do, H.P. Dokova, K. Doku, D.T. Doyle, K.E. Driscoll, T.R. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duncan, B.B. Duraes, A.R. Ebert, N. Ebrahimi, H. Ebrahimpour, S. Edvardsson, D. Effiong, A. Eggen, A.E. El Bcheraoui, C. El-Khatib, Z. Elyazar, I.R. Enayati, A. Endries, A.Y. Er, B. Erskine, H.E. Eskandarieh, S. Esteghamati, A. Estep, K. Fakhim, H. Faramarzi, M. Fareed, M. Farid, T.A. Sá Farinha, C.S.E. Farioli, A. Faro, A. Farvid, M.S. Farzaei, M.H. Fatima, B. Fay, K.A. Fazaeli, A.A. Feigin, V.L. Feigl, A.B. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Fernandes, J.C. Ferrara, G. Ferrari, A.J. Ferreira, M.L. Filip, I. Finger, J.D. Fischer, F. Foigt, N.A. Foreman, K.J. Fukumoto, T. Fullman, N. Fürst, T. Furtado, J.M. Futran, N.D. Gall, S. Gallus, S. Gamkrelidze, A. Ganji, M. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Gardner, W.M. Gebre, A.K. Gebremedhin, A.T. Gebremichael, T.G. Gelano, T.F. Geleijnse, J.M. Geramo, Y.C.D. Gething, P.W. Gezae, K.E. Ghadimi, R. Ghadiri, K. Ghasemi Falavarjani, K.G. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghimire, M. Ghosh, R. Ghoshal, A.G. Giampaoli, S. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Gillum, R.F. Ginawi, I.A. Giussani, G. Gnedovskaya, E.V. Godwin, W.W. Goli, S. Gómez-Dantés, H. Gona, P.N. Gopalani, S.V. Goulart, A.C. Grada, A. Grams, M.E. Grosso, G. Gugnani, H.C. Guo, Y. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Gupta, T. Gutiérrez, R.A. Gutiérrez-Torres, D.S. Haagsma, J.A. Habtewold, T.D. Hachinski, V. Hafezi-Nejad, N. Hagos, T.B. Hailegiyorgis, T.T. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Handal, A.J. Hankey, G.J. Hao, Y. Harb, H.L. Harikrishnan, S. Haro, J.M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hawley, C.N. Hay, S.I. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A. Heibati, B. Heidari, B. Heidari, M. Hendrie, D. Henok, A. Heredia-Pi, I. Herteliu, C. Heydarpour, F. Heydarpour, S. Hibstu, D.T. Higazi, T.B. Hilawe, E.H. Hoek, H.W. Hoffman, H.J. Hole, M.K. Homaie Rad, E. Hoogar, P. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseini, S.M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, M. Hostiuc, S. Hoy, D.G. Hsairi, M. Hsiao, T. Hu, G. Hu, H. Huang, J.J. Hussen, M.A. Huynh, C.K. Iburg, K.M. Ikeda, N. Ilesanmi, O.S. Iqbal, U. Irvani, S.S.N. Irvine, C.M.S. Islam, S.M.S. Islami, F. Jackson, M.D. Jacobsen, K.H. Jahangiry, L. Jahanmehr, N. Jain, S.K. Jakovljevic, M. James, S.L. Jassal, S.K. Jayatilleke, A.U. Jeemon, P. Jha, R.P. Jha, V. Ji, J.S. Jonas, J.B. Jonnagaddala, J. Jorjoran Shushtari, Z.J. Joshi, A. Jozwiak, J.J. Jürisson, M. Kabir, Z. Kahsay, A. Kalani, R. Kanchan, T. Kant, S. Kar, C. Karami, M. Karami Matin, B.K. Karch, A. Karema, C. Karimi, N. Karimi, S.M. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, D.H. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kassebaum, N.J. Katikireddi, S.V. Kaul, A. Kawakami, N. Kazemi, Z. Kazemi Karyani, A. Kefale, A.T. Keiyoro, P.N. Kemp, G.R. Kengne, A.P. Keren, A. Kesavachandran, C.N. Khader, Y.S. Khafaei, B. Khafaie, M.A. Khajavi, A. Khalid, N. Khalil, I.A. Khan, G. Khan, M.S. Khan, M.A. Khang, Y.-H. Khater, M.M. Khazaei, M. Khazaie, H. Khoja, A.T. Khosravi, A. Khosravi, M.H. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kiirithio, D.N. Kim, C.-I. Kim, D. Kim, Y.-E. Kim, Y.J. Kimokoti, R.W. Kinfu, Y. Kisa, A. Kissimova-Skarbek, K. Kivimäki, M. Knibbs, L.D. Knudsen, A.K.S. Kochhar, S. Kokubo, Y. Kolola, T. Kopec, J.A. Kosen, S. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Kravchenko, M.A. Krishan, K. Krohn, K.J. Kromhout, H. Kuate Defo, B. Kucuk Bicer, B. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kuzin, I. Kyu, H.H. Lachat, C. Lad, D.P. Lad, S.D. Lafranconi, A. Lalloo, R. Lallukka, T. Lami, F.H. Lang, J.J. Lansingh, V.C. Larson, S.L. Latifi, A. Lazarus, J.V. Lee, P.H. Leigh, J. Leili, M. Leshargie, C.T. Leung, J. Levi, M. Lewycka, S. Li, S. Li, Y. Liang, J. Liang, X. Liao, Y. Liben, M.L. Lim, L.-L. Linn, S. Liu, S. Lodha, R. Logroscino, G. Lopez, A.D. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Lozano, R. Lucas, T.C.D. Lunevicius, R. Ma, S. Macarayan, E.R.K. Machado, Í.E. Madotto, F. Mai, H.T. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malta, D.C. Mamun, A.A. Manda, A.-L. Manguerra, H. Mansournia, M.A. Mantovani, L.G. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marks, A. Martin, R.V. Martins, S.C.O. Martins-Melo, F.R. März, W. Marzan, M.B. Massenburg, B.B. Mathur, M.R. Mathur, P. Matsushita, K. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McAlinden, C. McGrath, J.J. McKee, M. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Meier, T. Mekonnen, F.A. Melaku, Y.A. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, D.T. Mensah, G.A. Mensink, G.B.M. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Mezgebe, H.B. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Millear, A.I. Miller, T.R. Miller-Petrie, M.K. Mini, G.K. Mirarefin, M. Mirica, A. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Mitiku, H. Moazen, B. Mohajer, B. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, M. Mohammed, S. Mohebi, F. Mokdad, A.H. Molokhia, M. Momeniha, F. Monasta, L. Moodley, Y. Moradi, G. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morawska, L. Morgado-Da-Costa, J. Morrison, S.D. Moschos, M.M. Mouodi, S. Mousavi, S.M. Mozaffarian, D. Mruts, K.B. Muche, A.A. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Muhammed, O.S. Mukhopadhyay, S. Muller, K. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Nabhan, A.F. Naghavi, M. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Naik, N. Najafi, F. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Nascimento, B.R. Neal, B. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, A.Q. Nguyen, G. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, H.L.T. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, M. Nguyen, N.B. Nichols, E. Nie, J. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nirayo, Y.L. Nishi, N. Nixon, M.R. Nojomi, M. Nomura, S. Norheim, O.F. Noroozi, M. Norrving, B. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M. Nowroozi, M.R. Nsoesie, E.O. Nyasulu, P.S. Obermeyer, C.M. Odell, C.M. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Olsen, H.E. Olusanya, B.O. Olusanya, J.O. Ong, K.L. Ong, S.K. Oren, E. Orpana, H.M. Ortiz, A. Ota, E. Otstavnov, S.S. Øverland, S. Owolabi, M.O. Mahesh, P.A. Pacella, R. Pakhare, A.P. Pakpour, A.H. Pana, A. Panda-Jonas, S. Park, E.-K. Parry, C.D.H. Parsian, H. Patel, S. Pati, S. Patil, S.T. Patle, A. Patton, G.C. Paudel, D. Paulson, K.R. Paz Ballesteros, W.C. Pearce, N. Pereira, A. Pereira, D.M. Perico, N. Pesudovs, K. Petzold, M. Pham, H.Q. Phillips, M.R. Pillay, J.D. Piradov, M.A. Pirsaheb, M. Pischon, T. Pishgar, F. Plana-Ripoll, O. Plass, D. Polinder, S. Polkinghorne, K.R. Postma, M.J. Poulton, R. Pourshams, A. Poustchi, H. Prabhakaran, D. Prakash, S. Prasad, N. Purcell, C.A. Purwar, M.B. Qorbani, M. Radfar, A. Rafay, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi, Z. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Rahimi-Movaghar, V. Rahman, M. Rahman, M.H.U. Rahman, M.A. Rai, R.K. Rajati, F. Rajsic, S. Raju, S.B. Ram, U. Ranabhat, C.L. Ranjan, P. Rath, G.K. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, S. Reddy, K.S. Rehm, C.D. Rehm, J. Reiner, R.C. Reitsma, M.B. Remuzzi, G. Renzaho, A.M.N. Resnikoff, S. Reynales-Shigematsu, L.M. Rezaei, S. Ribeiro, A.L.P. Rivera, J.A. Roba, K.T. Rodríguez-Ramírez, S. Roever, L. Román, Y. Ronfani, L. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Roth, G.A. Rothenbacher, D. Roy, A. Rubagotti, E. Rushton, L. Sabanayagam, C. Sachdev, P.S. Saddik, B. Sadeghi, E. Saeedi Moghaddam, S. Safari, H. Safari, Y. Safari-Faramani, R. Safdarian, M. Safi, S. Safiri, S. Sagar, R. Sahebkar, A. Sahraian, M.A. Sajadi, H.S. Salam, N. Salamati, P. Saleem, Z. Salimi, Y. Salimzadeh, H. Salomon, J.A. Salvi, D.D. Salz, I. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Sanchez-Niño, M.D. Sánchez-Pimienta, T.G. Sanders, T. Sang, Y. Santomauro, D.F. Santos, I.S. Santos, J.V. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Sao Jose, B.P. Sardana, M. Sarker, A.R. Sarmiento-Suárez, R. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Saylan, M. Sayyah, M. Schaeffner, E. Schmidt, M.I. Schneider, I.J.C. Schöttker, B. Schutte, A.E. Schwebel, D.C. Schwendicke, F. Scott, J.G. Seedat, S. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Serre, M.L. Serván-Mori, E. Seyedmousavi, S. Shabaninejad, H. Shaddick, G. Shafieesabet, A. Shahbazi, M. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shamah Levy, T. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsi, M. Sharafi, H. Sharafi, K. Sharif, M. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. Sharifi, H. Sharma, J. Sharma, M. Sharma, R. She, J. Sheikh, A. Shi, P. Shibuya, K. Shiferaw, M.S. Shigematsu, M. Shin, M.-J. Shiri, R. Shirkoohi, R. Shiue, I. Shokraneh, F. Shoman, H. Shrime, M.G. Shupler, M.S. Si, S. Siabani, S. Sibai, A.M. Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. Sigurvinsdottir, R. Silva, D.A.S. Silva, J.P. Silveira, D.G.A. Singh, J.A. Singh, N.P. Singh, V. Sinha, D.N. Skiadaresi, E. Skirbekk, V. Smith, D.L. Smith, M. Sobaih, B.H. Sobhani, S. Somayaji, R. Soofi, M. Sorensen, R.J.D. Soriano, J.B. Soyiri, I.N. Spinelli, A. Sposato, L.A. Sreeramareddy, C.T. Srinivasan, V. Starodubov, V.I. Steckling, N. Stein, D.J. Stein, M.B. Stevanovic, G. Stockfelt, L. Stokes, M.A. Sturua, L. Subart, M.L. Sudaryanto, A. Sufiyan, M.B. Sulo, G. Sunguya, B.F. Sur, P.J. Sykes, B.L. Szoeke, C.E.I. Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. Tabuchi, T. Tadakamadla, S.K. Takahashi, K. Tandon, N. Tassew, S.G. Tavakkoli, M. Taveira, N. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Tekalign, T.G. Tekelemedhin, S.W. Tekle, M.G. Temesgen, H. Temsah, M.-H. Temsah, O. Terkawi, A.S. Tessema, B. Teweldemedhin, M. Thankappan, K.R. Theis, A. Thirunavukkarasu, S. Thomas, H.J. Thomas, M.L. Thomas, N. Thurston, G.D. Tilahun, B. Tillmann, T. To, Q.G. Tobollik, M. Tonelli, M. Topor-Madry, R. Torre, A.E. Tortajada-Girbés, M. Touvier, M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Towbin, J.A. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Truelsen, T.C. Truong, N.T. Tsadik, A.G. Tudor Car, L. Tuzcu, E.M. Tymeson, H.D. Tyrovolas, S. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Updike, R.L. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Valdez, P.R. Van Donkelaar, A. Varavikova, E. Varughese, S. Vasankari, T.J. Venkateswaran, V. Venketasubramanian, N. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Vosoughi, K. Vu, G.T. Vujcic, I.S. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Waller, S.G. Walson, J.L. Wang, Y. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.H. Weldegebreal, F. Werdecker, A. Werkneh, A.A. West, J.J. Westerman, R. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Wijeratne, T. Winkler, A.S. Wiyeh, A.B. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Wong, T.Y. Wu, S. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Yadgir, S. Yadollahpour, A. Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S.H. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zavala-Arciniega, L. Zhang, A.L. Zhang, H. Zhang, K. Zhou, M. Zimsen, S.R.M. Zodpey, S. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 Risk Factor Collaborators
- Abstract
Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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- 2019
3. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017
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Frank, T.D. Carter, A. Jahagirdar, D. Biehl, M.H. Douwes-Schultz, D. Larson, S.L. Arora, M. Dwyer-Lindgren, L. Steuben, K.M. Abbastabar, H. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abyu, D.M. Adabi, M. Adebayo, O.M. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, K. Ahmadian, E. Ahmadpour, E. Ahmed, M.B. Akal, C.G. Alahdab, F. Alam, N. Albertson, S.B. Alemnew, B.T.T. Alene, K.A. Alipour, V. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amini, S. Anbari, Z. Anber, N.H. Anjomshoa, M. Antonio, C.A.T. Arabloo, J. Aremu, O. Areri, H.A. Asfaw, E.T. Ashagre, A.F. Asmelash, D. Asrat, A.A. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Awoke, N. Ayanore, M.A. Azari, S. Badawi, A. Bagherzadeh, M. Banach, M. Barac, A. Bärnighausen, T.W. Basu, S. Bedi, N. Behzadifar, M. Bekele, B.B. Belay, S.A. Belay, Y.B. Belayneh, Y.M.M. Berhane, A. Bhat, A.G. Bhattacharyya, K. Biadgo, B. Bijani, A. Shahdaat Bin Sayeed, M. Bitew, H. Blinov, A. Bogale, K.A. Bojia, H.A. Burugina Nagaraja, S.B.N. Butt, Z.A. Cahuana-Hurtado, L. Campuzano Rincon, J.C. Carvalho, F. Chattu, V.K. Christopher, D.J. Chu, D.-T. Crider, R. Dahiru, T. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Daryani, A. Das Neves, J. De Neve, J.-W. Degenhardt, L. Demeke, F.M. Demis, A.B.B. Demissie, D.B. Demoz, G.T. Deribe, K. Des Jarlais, D. Dhungana, G.P. Diaz, D. Djalalinia, S. Do, H.P. Doan, L.P. Duber, H. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duko Adema, B. Effiong, A. Eftekhari, A. El Sayed Zaki, M. El-Jaafary, S.I. El-Khatib, Z. Elsharkawy, A. Endries, A.Y. Eskandarieh, S. Eyawo, O. Farzadfar, F. Fatima, B. Fentahun, N. Fernandes, E. Filip, I. Fischer, F. Folayan, M.O. Foroutan, M. Fukumoto, T. Fullman, N. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Gayesa, R.T. Gebremedhin, K.B. Gebremeskel, G.G. Gebreyohannes, K.K. Gedefaw, G.A. Gelaw, B.K. Gesesew, H.A. Geta, B. Gezae, K.E. Ghadiri, K. Ghashghaee, A. Ginindza, T.T.G. Gugnani, H.C. Guimarães, R.A. Haile, M.T. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamidi, S. Handanagic, S. Handiso, D.W. Hanfore, L.K. Hasanzadeh, A. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Hay, S.I. Henok, A. Hoang, C.L. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hsairi, M. Ibitoye, S.E. Idrisov, B. Ikuta, K.S. Ilesanmi, O.S. Irvani, S.S.N. Iwu, C.J. Jacobsen, K.H. James, S.L. Jenabi, E. Jha, R.P. Jonas, J.B. Jorjoran Shushtari, Z. Kabir, A. Kabir, Z. Kadel, R. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, B. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kayode, G.A. Kebede, M.M. Kefale, A.T. Kengne, A.P. Khader, Y.S. Khafaie, M.A. Khalid, N. Khan, E.A. Khan, G. Khan, J. Khang, Y.-H. Khatab, K. Khazaei, S. Khoja, A.T. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kim, Y.J. Kisa, A. Kisa, S. Kochhar, S. Komaki, H. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Kuate Defo, B. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kuupiel, D. Lal, D.K. Lee, J.J.-H. Lenjebo, T.L. Leshargie, C.T. Macarayan, E.R.K. Maddison, E.R. Magdy Abd El Razek, H. Magis-Rodriguez, C. Mahasha, P.W. Majdan, M. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Manafi, N. Mapoma, C.C. Martins-Melo, F.R. Masaka, A. Mayenga, E.N.L. Mehta, V. Meles, G.G. Meles, H.G. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mena, A.T. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, D.T. Mengistu, G. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Miller, T.R. Moazen, B. Mohajer, B. Mohamadi-Bolbanabad, A. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammad, Y. Mohammad Darwesh, A. Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, N. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadibakhsh, R. Mohammadoo-Khorasani, M. Mohammed, J.A. Mohammed, S. Mohebi, F. Mokdad, A.H. Moodley, Y. Moossavi, M. Moradi, G. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moschos, M.M. Mossie, T.B. Mousavi, S.M. Muchie, K.F. Muluneh, A.G. Muriithi, M.K. Mustafa, G. Muthupandian, S. Nagarajan, A.J. Naik, G. Najafi, F. Nazari, J. Ndwandwe, D.E. Nguyen, C.T. Nguyen, H.L.T. Nguyen, S.H. Nguyen, T.H. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nixon, M.R. Nnaji, C.A. Noroozi, M. Noubiap, J.J. Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M. Obsa, M.S. Odame, E.A. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogbo, F.A. Okoro, A. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olum, S. Oppong Asante, K. Oren, E. Otstavnov, S.S. Mahesh, P.A. Padubidri, J.R. Pakhale, S. Pakpour, A.H. Patel, S.K. Paulos, K. Pepito, V.C.F. Peprah, E.K. Piroozi, B. Pourshams, A. Qorbani, M. Rabiee, M. Rabiee, N. Radfar, A. Rafay, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Rahimi-Movaghar, V. Rahman, S.U. Ranabhat, C.L. Rawaf, S. Reis, C. Renjith, V. Reta, M.A. Rezai, M.S. Rios González, C.M. Merdassa Roro, E.E.M. Rostami, A. Rubino, S. Saeedi Moghaddam, S. Safari, S. Sagar, R. Sahraian, M.A. Salem, M.R.R. Salimi, Y. Salomon, J.A. Sambala, E.Z. Samy, A.M. Sartorius, B. Satpathy, M. Sawhney, M. Sayyah, M. Schutte, A.E. Sepanlou, S.G. Seyedmousavi, S. Shabaninejad, H. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shallo, S.A. Shamsizadeh, M. Sharifi, H. Shibuya, K. Shin, J.I. Shirkoohi, R. Silva, D.A.S. Silveira, D.G.A. Singh, J.A. Sisay, M.M.M. Sisay, M. Sisay, S. Smith, A.E. Sokhan, A. Somayaji, R. Soshnikov, S. Stein, D.J. Sufiyan, M.B. Sunguya, B.F. Sykes, B.L. Tadesse, B.T. Tadesse, D.B. Tamirat, K.S. Taveira, N. Tekelemedhin, S.W. Temesgen, H.D. Tesfay, F.H. Teshale, M.Y. Thapa, S. Tlaye, K.G. Topp, S.M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Ullah, I. Unnikrishnan, B. Uthman, O.A. Veisani, Y. Vladimirov, S.K. Wada, F.W. Waheed, Y. Weldegwergs, K.G. Weldesamuel, G.T.T. Westerman, R. Wijeratne, T. Wolde, H.F. Wondafrash, D.Z. Wonde, T.E. Wondmagegn, B.Y. Yeshanew, A.G. Yilma, M.T. Yimer, E.M. Yonemoto, N. Yotebieng, M. Youm, Y. Yu, C. Zaidi, Z. Zarghi, A. Zenebe, Z.M. Zewale, T.A. Ziapour, A. Zodpey, S. Naghavi, M. Vollset, S.E. Wang, H. Lim, S.S. Kyu, H.H. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 HIV collaborators
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Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package - a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce agesex- specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact. © 2019 The Author(s).
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- 2019
4. Past, present, and future of global health financing: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 195 countries, 1995–2050
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Chang, A.Y., Cowling, K., Micah, A.E., Chapin, A., Chen, C.S., Ikilezi, G., Sadat, N., Tsakalos, G., Wu, J., Younker, T., Zhao, Y., Zlavog, B.S., Abbafati, C., Ahmed, A.E, Alam, K., Alipour, V., Aljunid, S.M., Almalki, M.J., Alvis-Guzman, N., Ammar, W., Andrei, C.L., Anjomshoa, M., Antonio, C.A.T., Arabloo, J., Aremu, O., Ausloos, M., Avila-Burgos, L., Awasthi, A., Ayanore, M.A., Azari, S., Azzopardi-Muscat, N., Bagherzadeh, M., Bärnighausen, T.W., Baune, B.T., Bayati, M., Belay, Y.B., Belay, Y.A., Belete, H., Berbada, D.A., Berman, A.E., Beuran, M., Bijani, A., Busse, R., Cahuana-Hurtado, L., Cámera, L.A., Catalá-López, F., Chauhan, B.G., Constantin, M-M, Crowe, C.S., Cucu, A., Dalal, K., De Neve, J-W, Deiparine, S., Demeke, F.M., Do, H.P., Dubey, M., El Tantawi, M., Eskandarieh, S., Esmaeili, R., Fakhar, M., Fazaeli, A.A., Fischer, F., Foigt, N.A., Fukumoto, T., Fullman, N., Galan, A., Gamkrelidze, A., Gezae, K.E., Ghajar, A., Ghashghaee, A., Goginashvili, K., Haakenstad, A., Haghparast Bidgoli, H., Hamidi, S., Harb, H.L., Hasanpoor, E., Hassen, H.Y., Hay, S.I., Hendrie, D., Henok, A., Heredia-Pi, I., Herteliu, C., Hoang, C.L., Hole, M.K., Homaie Rad, E., Hossain, N., Hosseinzadeh, M., Hostiuc, S., Ilesanmi, O.S., Irvani, S.S.N., Jakovljevic, M., Jalali, A., James, S.L., Jonas, J.B., Jürisson, M., Kadel, R., Karami Matin, B., Kasaeian, A., Kasaye, H.K., Kassaw, M.W., Kazemi Karyani, A., Khabiri, R., Khan, J., Khan, M.N., Khang, Y-H, Kisa, A., Kissimova-Skarbek, K., Kohler, S., Koyanagi, A., Krohn, K.J., Leung, R., Lim, L-L, Lorkowski, S., Majeed, A., Malekzadeh, R., Mansourian, M., Mantovani, L.G., Massenburg, B.B., McKee, M., Mehta, V., Meretoja, A., Meretoja, T.J., Milevska Kostova, N., Miller, T.R., Mirrakhimov, E.M., Mohajer, B., Mohammad Darwesh, A., Mohammed, S., Mohebi, F., Mokdad, A.H., Morrison, S.D., Mousavi, S.M., Muthupandian, S., Nagarajan, A.J., Nangia, V., Negoi, I., Nguyen, C.T., Nguyen, H.L.T., Nguyen, S.H., Nosratnejad, S., Oladimeji, O., Olgiati, S., Olusanya, J.O., Onwujekwe, O.E., Otstavnov, S.S., Pana, A., Pereira, D.M., Piroozi, B., Prada, S.I., Qorbani, M., Rabiee, M., Rabiee, N., Rafiei, A., Rahim, F., Rahimi-Movaghar, V., Ram, U., Ranabhat, C.L., Ranta, A., Rawaf, D.L., Rawaf, S., Rezaei, S., Roro, E.M., Rostami, A., Rubino, S., Salahshoor, M., Samy, A.M., Sanabria, J., Santos, J.V., Santric Milicevic, M.M., Sao Jose, B.P., Savic, M., Schwendicke, F., Sepanlou, S.G., Sepehrimanesh, M., Sheikh, A., Shrime, M.G, Sisay, S., Soltani, S., Soofi, M., Srinivasan, V., Tabarés-Seisdedos, R., Torre, A., Tovani-Palone, M.R., Tran, B.X., Tran, K.B., Undurraga, E.A., Valdez, P.R., van Boven, J.F.M., Vargas, V., Veisani, Y., Violante, F.S., Vladimirov, S.K., Vlassov, V., Vollmer, S., Vu, G.T., Wolfe, C.D.A., Yonemoto, N., Younis, M.Z., Yousefifard, M., Zaman, S.B., Zangeneh, A., Zegeye, El.A., Ziapour, A., Chew, A., Murray, C.J.L., Dieleman, J.L., Chang, A.Y., Cowling, K., Micah, A.E., Chapin, A., Chen, C.S., Ikilezi, G., Sadat, N., Tsakalos, G., Wu, J., Younker, T., Zhao, Y., Zlavog, B.S., Abbafati, C., Ahmed, A.E, Alam, K., Alipour, V., Aljunid, S.M., Almalki, M.J., Alvis-Guzman, N., Ammar, W., Andrei, C.L., Anjomshoa, M., Antonio, C.A.T., Arabloo, J., Aremu, O., Ausloos, M., Avila-Burgos, L., Awasthi, A., Ayanore, M.A., Azari, S., Azzopardi-Muscat, N., Bagherzadeh, M., Bärnighausen, T.W., Baune, B.T., Bayati, M., Belay, Y.B., Belay, Y.A., Belete, H., Berbada, D.A., Berman, A.E., Beuran, M., Bijani, A., Busse, R., Cahuana-Hurtado, L., Cámera, L.A., Catalá-López, F., Chauhan, B.G., Constantin, M-M, Crowe, C.S., Cucu, A., Dalal, K., De Neve, J-W, Deiparine, S., Demeke, F.M., Do, H.P., Dubey, M., El Tantawi, M., Eskandarieh, S., Esmaeili, R., Fakhar, M., Fazaeli, A.A., Fischer, F., Foigt, N.A., Fukumoto, T., Fullman, N., Galan, A., Gamkrelidze, A., Gezae, K.E., Ghajar, A., Ghashghaee, A., Goginashvili, K., Haakenstad, A., Haghparast Bidgoli, H., Hamidi, S., Harb, H.L., Hasanpoor, E., Hassen, H.Y., Hay, S.I., Hendrie, D., Henok, A., Heredia-Pi, I., Herteliu, C., Hoang, C.L., Hole, M.K., Homaie Rad, E., Hossain, N., Hosseinzadeh, M., Hostiuc, S., Ilesanmi, O.S., Irvani, S.S.N., Jakovljevic, M., Jalali, A., James, S.L., Jonas, J.B., Jürisson, M., Kadel, R., Karami Matin, B., Kasaeian, A., Kasaye, H.K., Kassaw, M.W., Kazemi Karyani, A., Khabiri, R., Khan, J., Khan, M.N., Khang, Y-H, Kisa, A., Kissimova-Skarbek, K., Kohler, S., Koyanagi, A., Krohn, K.J., Leung, R., Lim, L-L, Lorkowski, S., Majeed, A., Malekzadeh, R., Mansourian, M., Mantovani, L.G., Massenburg, B.B., McKee, M., Mehta, V., Meretoja, A., Meretoja, T.J., Milevska Kostova, N., Miller, T.R., Mirrakhimov, E.M., Mohajer, B., Mohammad Darwesh, A., Mohammed, S., Mohebi, F., Mokdad, A.H., Morrison, S.D., Mousavi, S.M., Muthupandian, S., Nagarajan, A.J., Nangia, V., Negoi, I., Nguyen, C.T., Nguyen, H.L.T., Nguyen, S.H., Nosratnejad, S., Oladimeji, O., Olgiati, S., Olusanya, J.O., Onwujekwe, O.E., Otstavnov, S.S., Pana, A., Pereira, D.M., Piroozi, B., Prada, S.I., Qorbani, M., Rabiee, M., Rabiee, N., Rafiei, A., Rahim, F., Rahimi-Movaghar, V., Ram, U., Ranabhat, C.L., Ranta, A., Rawaf, D.L., Rawaf, S., Rezaei, S., Roro, E.M., Rostami, A., Rubino, S., Salahshoor, M., Samy, A.M., Sanabria, J., Santos, J.V., Santric Milicevic, M.M., Sao Jose, B.P., Savic, M., Schwendicke, F., Sepanlou, S.G., Sepehrimanesh, M., Sheikh, A., Shrime, M.G, Sisay, S., Soltani, S., Soofi, M., Srinivasan, V., Tabarés-Seisdedos, R., Torre, A., Tovani-Palone, M.R., Tran, B.X., Tran, K.B., Undurraga, E.A., Valdez, P.R., van Boven, J.F.M., Vargas, V., Veisani, Y., Violante, F.S., Vladimirov, S.K., Vlassov, V., Vollmer, S., Vu, G.T., Wolfe, C.D.A., Yonemoto, N., Younis, M.Z., Yousefifard, M., Zaman, S.B., Zangeneh, A., Zegeye, El.A., Ziapour, A., Chew, A., Murray, C.J.L., and Dieleman, J.L.
- Abstract
Background Comprehensive and comparable estimates of health spending in each country are a key input for health policy and planning, and are necessary to support the achievement of national and international health goals. Previous studies have tracked past and projected future health spending until 2040 and shown that, with economic development, countries tend to spend more on health per capita, with a decreasing share of spending from development assistance and out-of-pocket sources. We aimed to characterise the past, present, and predicted future of global health spending, with an emphasis on equity in spending across countries. Methods We estimated domestic health spending for 195 countries and territories from 1995 to 2016, split into three categories—government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending—and estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2018. We estimated future scenarios of health spending using an ensemble of linear mixed-effects models with time series specifications to project domestic health spending from 2017 through 2050 and DAH from 2019 through 2050. Data were extracted from a broad set of sources tracking health spending and revenue, and were standardised and converted to inflation-adjusted 2018 US dollars. Incomplete or low-quality data were modelled and uncertainty was estimated, leading to a complete data series of total, government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending, and DAH. Estimates are reported in 2018 US dollars, 2018 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars, and as a percentage of gross domestic product. We used demographic decomposition methods to assess a set of factors associated with changes in government health spending between 1995 and 2016 and to examine evidence to support the theory of the health financing transition. We projected two alternative future scenarios based on higher government health spending to assess the potential ability of governments to generate more resour
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5. Erratum: Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1736–1788)(S0140673618322037)(10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32203-7))
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GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators Roth, G.A. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abay, S.M. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, H.T. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abejie, A.N. Abera, S.F. Abil, O.Z. Abraha, H.N. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Adamu, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adedoyin, R.A. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adhena, B.M. Adib, M.G. Admasie, A. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Agesa, K.M. Agrawal, A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmed, M.B. Ahmed, S. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akbari, M.E. Akinyemi, R.O. Akseer, N. Al-Aly, Z. Al-Eyadhy, A. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alahdab, F. Alam, K. Alam, T. Alebel, A. Alene, K.A. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Alonso, J. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Aminde, L.N. Amini, E. Ammar, W. Amoako, Y.A. Anber, N.H. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansari, H. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Anwari, P. Aremu, O. Arnlov, J. Arora, A. Arora, M. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Asfaw, E.T. Ataro, Z. Atique, S. Atre, S.R. Ausloos, M. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayele, Y. Ayer, R. Azzopardi, P.S. Babazadeh, A. Bacha, U. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Bali, A.G. Ballesteros, K.E. Banach, M. Banerjee, K. Bannick, M.S. Banoub, J.A.M. Barboza, M.A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Barnighausen, T.W. Barquera, S. Barrero, L.H. Bassat, Q. Basu, S. Baune, B.T. Baynes, H.W. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Bejot, Y. Bekele, B.B. Belachew, A.B. Belay, E. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Berman, A.E. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Bertolacci, G.J. Beuran, M. Beyranvand, T. Bhalla, A. Bhattarai, S. Bhaumik, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Biehl, M.H. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bilano, V. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Bisanzio, D. Biswas, T. Blacker, B.F. Basara, B.B. Borschmann, R. Bosetti, C. Bozorgmehr, K. Brady, O.J. Brant, L.C. Brayne, C. Brazinova, A. Breitborde, N.J.K. Brenner, H. Briant, P.S. Britton, G. Brugha, T. Busse, R. Butt, Z.A. Callender, C.S.K.H. Campos-Nonato, I.R. Campuzano Rincon, J.C. Cano, J. Car, M. Cardenas, R. Carreras, G. Carrero, J.J. Carter, A. Carvalho, F. Castaneda-Orjuela, C.A. Castillo Rivas, J. Castle, C.D. Castro, C. Castro, F. Catala-Lopez, F. Cerin, E. Chaiah, Y. Chang, J.-C. Charlson, F.J. Chaturvedi, P. Chiang, P.P.-C. Chimed-Ochir, O. Chisumpa, V.H. Chitheer, A. Chowdhury, R. Christensen, H. Christopher, D.J. Chung, S.-C. Cicuttini, F.M. Ciobanu, L.G. Cirillo, M. Cohen, A.J. Cooper, L.T. Cortesi, P.A. Cortinovis, M. Cousin, E. Cowie, B.C. Criqui, M.H. Cromwell, E.A. Crowe, C.S. Crump, J.A. Cunningham, M. Daba, A.K. Dadi, A.F. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Dang, A.K. Dargan, P.I. Daryani, A. Das, S.K. Gupta, R.D. Neves, J.D. Dasa, T.T. Dash, A.P. Davis, A.C. Davis Weaver, N. Davitoiu, D.V. Davletov, K. De La Hoz, F.P. De Neve, J.-W. Degefa, M.G. Degenhardt, L. Degfie, T.T. Deiparine, S. Demoz, G.T. Demtsu, B.B. Denova-Gutierrez, E. Deribe, K. Dervenis, N. Des Jarlais, D.C. Dessie, G.A. Dey, S. Dharmaratne, S.D. Dicker, D. Dinberu, M.T. Ding, E.L. Dirac, M.A. Djalalinia, S. Dokova, K. Doku, D.T. Donnelly, C.A. Dorsey, E.R. Doshi, P.P. Douwes-Schultz, D. Doyle, K.E. Driscoll, T.R. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duncan, B.B. Duraes, A.R. Ebrahimi, H. Ebrahimpour, S. Edessa, D. Edvardsson, D. Eggen, A.E. El Bcheraoui, C. El Sayed Zaki, M. El-Khatib, Z. Elkout, H. Ellingsen, C.L. Endres, M. Endries, A.Y. Er, B. Erskine, H.E. Eshrati, B. Eskandarieh, S. Esmaeili, R. Esteghamati, A. Fakhar, M. Fakhim, H. Faramarzi, M. Fareed, M. Farhadi, F. Farinha, C.S.E. Faro, A. Farvid, M.S. Farzadfar, F. Farzaei, M.H. Feigin, V.L. Feigl, A.B. Fentahun, N. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Fernandes, J.C. Ferrari, A.J. Feyissa, G.T. Filip, I. Finegold, S. Fischer, F. Fitzmaurice, C. Foigt, N.A. Foreman, K.J. Fornari, C. Frank, T.D. Fukumoto, T. Fuller, J.E. Fullman, N. Furst, T. Furtado, J.M. Futran, N.D. Gallus, S. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Garcia-Gordillo, M.A. Gardner, W.M. Gebre, A.K. Gebrehiwot, T.T. Gebremedhin, A.T. Gebremichael, B. Gebremichael, T.G. Gelano, T.F. Geleijnse, J.M. Genova-Maleras, R. Geramo, Y.C.D. Gething, P.W. Gezae, K.E. Ghadami, M.R. Ghadimi, R. Ghasemi Falavarjani, K. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghimire, M. Gibney, K.B. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Gillum, R.F. Ginawi, I.A. Giroud, M. Giussani, G. Goenka, S. Goldberg, E.M. Goli, S. Gomez-Dantes, H. Gona, P.N. Gopalani, S.V. Gorman, T.M. Goto, A. Goulart, A.C. Gnedovskaya, E.V. Grada, A. Grosso, G. Gugnani, H.C. Guimaraes, A.L.S. Guo, Y. Gupta, P.C. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Gupta, T. Gutierrez, R.A. Gyawali, B. Haagsma, J.A. Hafezi-Nejad, N. Hagos, T.B. Hailegiyorgis, T.T. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Handal, A.J. Hankey, G.J. Harb, H.L. Harikrishnan, S. Haro, J.M. Hasan, M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hay, R.J. Hay, S.I. He, Y. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A. Hegazy, M.I. Heibati, B. Heidari, M. Hendrie, D. Henok, A. Henry, N.J. Herteliu, C. Heydarpour, F. Heydarpour, P. Heydarpour, S. Hibstu, D.T. Hoek, H.W. Hole, M.K. Homaie Rad, E. Hoogar, P. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseini, S.M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, M. Hostiuc, S. Hotez, P.J. Hoy, D.G. Hsiao, T. Hu, G. Huang, J.J. Husseini, A. Hussen, M.M. Hutfless, S. Idrisov, B. Ilesanmi, O.S. Iqbal, U. Irvani, S.S.N. Irvine, C.M.S. Islam, N. Islam, S.M.S. Islami, F. Jacobsen, K.H. Jahangiry, L. Jahanmehr, N. Jain, S.K. Jakovljevic, M. Jalu, M.T. James, S.L. Javanbakht, M. Jayatilleke, A.U. Jeemon, P. Jenkins, K.J. Jha, R.P. Jha, V. Johnson, C.O. Johnson, S.C. Jonas, J.B. Joshi, A. Jozwiak, J.J. Jungari, S.B. Jurisson, M. Kabir, Z. Kadel, R. Kahsay, A. Kalani, R. Karami, M. Karami Matin, B. Karch, A. Karema, C. Karimi-Sari, H. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, D.H. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kassebaum, N.J. Katikireddi, S.V. Kaul, A. Kazemi, Z. Kazemi Karyani, A. Kazi, D.S. Kefale, A.T. Keiyoro, P.N. Kemp, G.R. Kengne, A.P. Keren, A. Kesavachandran, C.N. Khader, Y.S. Khafaei, B. Khafaie, M.A. Khajavi, A. Khalid, N. Khalil, I.A. Khan, E.A. Khan, M.S. Khan, M.A. Khang, Y.-H. Khater, M.M. Khoja, A.T. Khosravi, A. Khosravi, M.H. Khubchandani, J. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kibret, G.D. Kidanemariam, Z.T. Kiirithio, D.N. Kim, D. Kim, Y.-E. Kim, Y.J. Kimokoti, R.W. Kinfu, Y. Kisa, A. Kissimova-Skarbek, K. Kivimaki, M. Knudsen, A.K.S. Kocarnik, J.M. Kochhar, S. Kokubo, Y. Kolola, T. Kopec, J.A. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Kravchenko, M.A. Krishan, K. Kuate Defo, B. Kucuk Bicer, B. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kumar, P. Kutz, M.J. Kuzin, I. Kyu, H.H. Lad, D.P. Lad, S.D. Lafranconi, A. Lal, D.K. Lalloo, R. Lallukka, T. Lam, J.O. Lami, F.H. Lansingh, V.C. Lansky, S. Larson, H.J. Latifi, A. Lau, K.M.-M. Lazarus, J.V. Lebedev, G. Lee, P.H. Leigh, J. Leili, M. Leshargie, C.T. Li, S. Li, Y. Liang, J. Lim, L.-L. Lim, S.S. Limenih, M.A. Linn, S. Liu, S. Liu, Y. Lodha, R. Lonsdale, C. Lopez, A.D. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Lozano, R. Lunevicius, R. Ma, S. Macarayan, E.R.K. Mackay, M.T. MacLachlan, J.H. Maddison, E.R. Madotto, F. Magdy Abd El Razek, H. Magdy Abd El Razek, M. Maghavani, D.P. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malta, D.C. Manda, A.-L. Mandarano-Filho, L.G. Manguerra, H. Mansournia, M.A. Mapoma, C.C. Marami, D. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marczak, L. Marks, A. Marks, G.B. Martinez, G. Martins-Melo, F.R. Martopullo, I. Marz, W. Marzan, M.B. Masci, J.R. Massenburg, B.B. Mathur, M.R. Mathur, P. Matzopoulos, R. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McAlinden, C. McGrath, J.J. McKee, M. McMahon, B.J. Mehata, S. Mehndiratta, M.M. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Mekonnen, T.C. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, D.T. Mengistu, G. Mensah, G.A. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Mezgebe, H.B. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Millear, A.I. Miller, T.R. Miller-Petrie, M.K. Mini, G.K. Mirabi, P. Mirarefin, M. Mirica, A. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Mitiku, H. Moazen, B. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammed, M.A. Mohammed, S. Mohan, V. Mokdad, A.H. Molokhia, M. Monasta, L. Moradi, G. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morawska, L. Velasquez, I.M. Morgado-Da-Costa, J. Morrison, S.D. Moschos, M.M. Mouodi, S. Mousavi, S.M. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Mukhopadhyay, S. Muller, K. Mumford, J.E. Musa, J. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Muthupandian, S. Nachega, J.B. Nagel, G. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Nair, S. Najafi, F. Naldi, L. Nam, H.S. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Nascimento, B.R. Natarajan, G. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngalesoni, F.N. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, A.Q. Nguyen, G. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, L.H. Nguyen, M. Nguyen, T.H. Nichols, E. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nirayo, Y.L. Nixon, M.R. Nolutshungu, N. Nomura, S. Norheim, O.F. Noroozi, M. Norrving, B. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Shiadeh, M.N. Nowroozi, M.R. Nyasulu, P.S. Odell, C.M. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.H. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olivares, P.R. Olsen, H.E. Olusanya, B.O. Olusanya, J.O. Ong, K.L. Ong, S.K.S. Oren, E. Orpana, H.M. Ortiz, A. Ortiz, J.R. Otstavnov, S.S. Overland, S. Owolabi, M.O. Ozdemir, R. Mahesh, P.A. Pacella, R. Pakhale, S. Pakhare, A.P. Pakpour, A.H. Pana, A. Panda-Jonas, S. Pandian, J.D. Parisi, A. Park, E.-K. Parry, C.D.H. Parsian, H. Patel, S. Pati, S. Patton, G.C. Paturi, V.R. Paulson, K.R. Pereira, A. Pereira, D.M. Perico, N. Pesudovs, K. Petzold, M. Phillips, M.R. Piel, F.B. Pigott, D.M. Pillay, J.D. Pirsaheb, M. Pishgar, F. Polinder, S. Postma, M.J. Pourshams, A. Poustchi, H. Pujar, A. Prakash, S. Prasad, N. Purcell, C.A. Qorbani, M. Quintana, H. Quistberg, D.A. Rade, K.W. Anwar Rafay, A.R. Rahim, F. Rahimi, K. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Rahman, M. Rahman, M.H.U. Rahman, M.A. Rai, R.K. Rajsic, S. Ram, U. Ranabhat, C.L. Ranjan, P. Rao, P.C. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, S. Razo-Garcia, C. Reddy, K.S. Reiner, R.C. Reitsma, M.B. Remuzzi, G. Renzaho, A.M.N. Resnikoff, S. Rezaei, S. Rezaeian, S. Rezai, M.S. Riahi, S.M. Ribeiro, A.L.P. Rios-Blancas, M.J. Roba, K.T. Roberts, N.L.S. Robinson, S.R. Roever, L. Ronfani, L. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Rothenbacher, D. Roy, A. Rubagotti, E. Sachdev, P.S. Saddik, B. Sadeghi, E. Safari, H. Safdarian, M. Safi, S. Safiri, S. Sagar, R. Sahebkar, A. Sahraian, M.A. Salam, N. Salama, J.S. Salamati, P. De Freitas Saldanha, R. Saleem, Z. Salimi, Y. Salvi, S.S. Salz, I. Sambala, E.Z. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Dolores Sanchez-Nino, M. Santomauro, D.F. Santos, I.S. Santos, J.V. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Jose, B.P.S. Sarker, A.R. Sarmiento-Suarez, R. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Saxena, S. Sayyah, M. Schaeffner, E. Schmidt, M.I. Schneider, I.J.C. Schottker, B. Schutte, A.E. Schwebel, D.C. Schwendicke, F. Scott, J.G. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Servan-Mori, E. Seyedmousavi, S. Shabaninejad, H. Shackelford, K.A. Shafieesabet, A. Shahbazi, M. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsi, M. Shamsizadeh, M. Sharafi, K. Sharif, M. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. Sharma, R. She, J. Sheikh, A. Shi, P. Shiferaw, M.S. Shigematsu, M. Shiri, R. Shirkoohi, R. Shiue, I. Shokraneh, F. Shrime, M.G. Si, S. Siabani, S. Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. Sigurvinsdottir, R. Silberberg, D.H. Santos Silva, D.A. Silva, J.P. Da Silva, N.T. Silveira, D.G.A. Singh, J.A. Singh, N.P. Singh, P.K. Singh, V. Sinha, D.N. Sliwa, K. Smith, M. Sobaih, B.H. Sobhani, S. Sobngwi, E. Soneji, S.S. Soofi, M. Sorensen, R.J.D. Soriano, J.B. Soyiri, I.N. Sposato, L.A. Sreeramareddy, C.T. Srinivasan, V. Stanaway, J.D. Starodubov, V.I. Stathopoulou, V. Stein, D.J. Steiner, C. Stewart, L.G. Stokes, M.A. Subart, M.L. Sudaryanto, A. Sufiyan, M.B. Sur, P.J. Sutradhar, I. Sykes, B.L. Sylaja, P.N. Sylte, D.O. Szoeke, C.E.I. Tabares-Seisdedos, R. Tabuchi, T. Tadakamadla, S.K. Takahashi, K. Tandon, N. Tassew, S.G. Taveira, N. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Tekalign, T.G. Tekle, M.G. Temsah, M.-H. Temsah, O. Terkawi, A.S. Teshale, M.Y. Tessema, B. Tessema, G.A. Thankappan, K.R. Thirunavukkarasu, S. Thomas, N. Thrift, A.G. Thurston, G.D. Tilahun, B. To, Q.G. Tobe-Gai, R. Tonelli, M. Topor-Madry, R. Torre, A.E. Tortajada-Girbes, M. Touvier, M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Tripathi, S. Troeger, C.E. Truelsen, T.C. Truong, N.T. Tsadik, A.G. Tsoi, D. Tudor Car, L. Murat Tuzcu, E. Tyrovolas, S. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Undurraga, E.A. Updike, R.L. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Uzun, S.B. Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Vaidya, G. Valdez, P.R. Varavikova, E. Vasankari, T.J. Venketasubramanian, N. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Wagner, G.R. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Wallin, M.T. Walson, J.L. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Wassie, M.M. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weldegebreal, F. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. Werkneh, A.A. West, T.E. Westerman, R. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Wilner, L.B. Wilson, S. Winkler, A.S. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Wu, S. Wu, Y.-C. Wyper, G.M.A. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Yadgir, S. Yadollahpour, A. Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S.H. Yakob, B. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Yentur, G.K. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yirsaw, B.D. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yonga, G. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zadnik, V. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zare, Z. Zeleke, A.J. Zenebe, Z.M. Zhang, A.L. Zhang, K. Zhou, M. Zodpey, S. Zuhlke, L.J. Naghavi, M. Murray, C.J.L.
- Abstract
GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392: 1736–88—The bottom row in figure 7 was cut off. This correction has been made to the online version as of Nov 9, 2018, and has been made to the printed Article. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd
- Published
- 2018
6. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- Author
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Dicker, D. Nguyen, G. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abay, S.M. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdel-Rahman, O. Abdi, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abdurahman, A.A. Abebe, H.T. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abebo, T.A. Aboyans, V. Abraha, H.N. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, P. Adebayo, O.M. Adedeji, I.A. Adedoyin, R.A. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adhena, B.M. Adhikari, T.B. Adib, M.G. Adou, A.K. Adsuar, J.C. Afarideh, M. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Aggarwal, R. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, S. Agrawal, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.L.C.B. Ahmed, S. Ahmed, M.B. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akanda, A.S. Akbari, M.E. Akibu, M. Akinyemi, R.O. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Alahdab, F. Al-Aly, Z. Alam, K. Alebel, A. Aleman, A.V. Alene, K.A. Al-Eyadhy, A. Ali, R. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Allen, C.A. Alonso, J. Al-Raddadi, R.M. 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Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zachariah, G. Zadnik, V. Zafar, S. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zare, Z. Zeeb, H. Zeleke, M.M. Zenebe, Z.M. Zerfu, T.A. Zhang, K. Zhang, X. Zhou, M. Zhu, J. Zodpey, S. Zucker, I. Zuhlke, L.J.J. Lopez, A.D. Gakidou, E. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 Mortality Collaborators
- Abstract
Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specifc mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The fndings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which refects signifcant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. © 2018 The Author(s).
- Published
- 2018
7. Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- Author
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Vujcic, I.S. Wagner, G.R. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Walson, J.L. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Wassie, M.M. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weiss, J. Weldegebreal, F. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. Werkneh, A.A. West, T.E. Westerman, R. Whisnant, J.L. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Widecka, K. Wijeratne, T. Wilner, L.B. Winkler, A.S. Wiyeh, A.B. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolde, H.F. Wolfe, C.D.A. Wu, S. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Xu, R. Yadollahpour, A. Jabbari, S.H.Y. Yakob, B. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Ye, P. Yearwood, J.A. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yirsaw, B.D. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yonga, G. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zare, Z. Zavala-Arciniega, L. Zegeye, D.T. Zegeye, E.A. Zeleke, A.J. Zendehdel, K. Zerfu, T.A. Zhang, A.L. Zhang, X. Zhou, M. Zhu, J. Zimsen, S.R.M. Zodpey, S. Zoeckler, L. Zucker, I. Zuhlke, L.J.J. Lim, S.S. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 SDG Collaborators
- Abstract
Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
- Published
- 2018
8. Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- Author
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GBD 2017 Population Fertility Collaborators
- Abstract
Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
- Published
- 2018
9. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- Author
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Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Valdez, P.R. Varavikova, E. Varughese, S. Vasankari, T.J. Venketasubramanian, N. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Vosoughi, K. Vujcic, I.S. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weiss, D.J. Weldegebreal, F. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. West, T.E. Westerman, R. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Wijeratne, T. Williams, H.C. Wilner, L.B. Wilson, S. Winkler, A.S. Wiyeh, A.B. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Woolf, A.D. Wyper, G.M.A. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Yadgir, S. Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S.H. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zadnik, V. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zandian, H. Zar, H.J. Zenebe, Z.M. Zipkin, B. Zhou, M. Zodpey, S. Zucker, I. Zuhlke, L.J. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 DALYs HALE Collaborators
- Abstract
Background: How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted lifeyears (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severityof ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-speci?c mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Sociodemographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the ?ve leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2). Interpretation With increasing life expectancy in most countries, the question of whether the additional years of life gained are spent in good health or poor health has been increasingly relevant because of the potential policy implications, such as health-care provisions and extending retirement ages. In some locations, a large proportion of those additional years are spent in poor health. Large inequalities in HALE and disease burden exist across countries in different SDI quintiles and between sexes. The burden of disabling conditions has serious implications for health system planning and health-related expenditures. Despite the progress made in reducing the burden of communicable diseases and neonatal disorders in low SDI countries, the speed of this progress could be increased by scaling up proven interventions. The global trends among non-communicable diseases indicate that more effort is needed to maximise HALE, such as risk prevention and attention to upstream determinants of health. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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- 2018
10. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 Diseases and Injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
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Marks, A. Martins-Melo, F.R. Martopullo, I. März, W. Marzan, M.B. Mashamba-Thompson, T.P. Massenburg, B.B. Mathur, M.R. Matsushita, K. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McAlinden, C. McGrath, J.J. McKee, M. Mehndiratta, M.M. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Mejia-Rodriguez, F. Mekonen, T. Melese, A. Melku, M. Meltzer, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, D.T. Mengistu, G. Mensah, G.A. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Mezerji, N.M.G. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Millear, A.I. Miller, T.R. Miltz, B. Mini, G.K. Mirarefin, M. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Mitchell, P.B. Mitiku, H. Moazen, B. Mohajer, B. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, M. Mohammed, M.A. Mohammed, S. Mohebi, F. Moitra, M. Mokdad, A.H. Molokhia, M. Monasta, L. Moodley, Y. Moosazadeh, M. Moradi, G. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morawska, L. Moreno Velásquez, I. Morgado-Da-Costa, J. Morrison, S.D. Moschos, M.M. Mousavi, S.M. Mruts, K.B. Muche, A.A. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Muhammed, O.S. Mukhopadhyay, S. Muller, K. Mumford, J.E. Murhekar, M. Musa, J. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Nabhan, A.F. Nagata, C. Naghavi, M. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Naik, N. Najafi, F. Naldi, L. Nam, H.S. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Nascimento, B.R. Natarajan, G. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, A.Q. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, H.L.T. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, L.H. Nguyen, M. Nguyen, N.B. Nguyen, S.H. Nichols, E. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nixon, M.R. Nolutshungu, N. Nomura, S. Norheim, O.F. Noroozi, M. Norrving, B. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M. Nowroozi, M.R. Nsoesie, E.O. Nyasulu, P.S. Odell, C.M. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Olsen, H.E. Olusanya, B.O. Ong, K.L. Ong, S.K. Oren, E. Ortiz, A. Ota, E. Otstavnov, S.S. øverland, S. Owolabi, M.O. Mahesh, P.A. Pacella, R. Pakpour, A.H. Pana, A. Panda-Jonas, S. Parisi, A. Park, E.-K. 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Safdarian, M. Safi, S. Safiri, S. Sagar, R. Sahebkar, A. Sahraian, M.A. Sajadi, H.S. Salam, N. Salama, J.S. Salamati, P. Saleem, K. Saleem, Z. Salimi, Y. Salomon, J.A. Salvi, S.S. Salz, I. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Sang, Y. Santomauro, D.F. Santos, I.S. Santos, J.V. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Sao Jose, B.P. Sardana, M. Sarker, A.R. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Saxena, S. Saylan, M. Schaeffner, E. Schmidt, M.I. Schneider, I.J.C. Schöttker, B. Schwebel, D.C. Schwendicke, F. Scott, J.G. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Serván-Mori, E. Seyedmousavi, S. Shabaninejad, H. Shafieesabet, A. Shahbazi, M. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsi, M. Shamsizadeh, M. Sharafi, H. Sharafi, K. Sharif, M. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. Sharma, M. Sharma, R. She, J. Sheikh, A. Shi, P. Shibuya, K. Shigematsu, M. Shiri, R. Shirkoohi, R. Shishani, K. Shiue, I. Shokraneh, F. Shoman, H. Shrime, M.G. Si, S. Siabani, S. Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. 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Troeger, C.E. Truelsen, T.C. Tsilimbaris, M.K. Tsoi, D. Tudor Car, L. Tuzcu, E.M. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Undurraga, E.A. Unutzer, J. Updike, R.L. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Valdez, P.R. Varughese, S. Vasankari, T.J. Venketasubramanian, N. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vosoughi, K. Vujcic, I.S. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Waller, S.G. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weiss, D.J. Weldegebreal, F. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. West, T.E. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Wijeratne, T. Wilner, L.B. Wilson, S. Winkler, A.S. Wiyeh, A.B. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Woolf, A.D. Wu, S. Wu, Y.-C. Wyper, G.M.A. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Yadgir, S. Yadollahpour, A. Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S.H. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zadnik, V. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zare, Z. Zeleke, A.J. Zenebe, Z.M. Zhang, K. Zhao, Z. Zhou, M. Zodpey, S. Zucker, I. Vos, T. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 Disease Injury Incidence Prevalence Collaborators
- Abstract
Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
- Published
- 2018
11. Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.
- Author
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Shen J., Sorensen R.J.D., Soriano J.B., Sreeramareddy C.T., Steckling N., Stein D.J., Sufiyan M.B., Sur P.J., Sykes B.L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tabuchi T., Tavakkoli M., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Tekle M.G., Thapa S., Thomas N., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Tran B.X., Troeger C.E., Truelsen T.C., Tsilimparis N., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Ullah I., Uthman O.A., Valdez P.R., Van Boven J.F.M., Vasankari T.J., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Wagnew F.W.S., Waheed Y., Wang Y.-P., Weiderpass E., Weldegebreal F., Weldegwergs K.G., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Widecka J., Wijeratne T., Wyper G.M.A., Xu G., Yamada T., Yano Y., Ye P., Yimer E.M., Yip P., Yirsaw B.D., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Zachariah G., Zaidi Z., Zamani M., Zhang X., Zodpey S., Mokdad A.H., Naghavi M., Murray C.J.L., Gakidou E., Griswold M.G., Fullman N., Hawley C., Arian N., Zimsen S.R.M., Tymeson H.D., Venkateswaran V., Tapp A.D., Forouzanfar M.H., Salama J.S., Abate K.H., Abate D., Abay S.M., Abbafati C., Abdulkader R.S., Abebe Z., Aboyans V., Abrar M.M., Acharya P., Adetokunboh O.O., Adhikari T.B., Adsuar J.C., Afarideh M., Agardh E.E., Agarwal G., Aghayan S.A., Agrawal S., Ahmed M.B., Akibu M., Akinyemiju T., Akseer N., Al Asfoor D.H., Al-Aly Z., Alahdab F., Alam K., Albujeer A., Alene K.A., Ali R., Ali S.D., Alijanzadeh M., Aljunid S.M., Alkerwi A., Allebeck P., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Aminde L.N., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Amul G.G.H., Andrei C.L., Angus C., Ansha M.G., Antonio C.A.T., Aremu O., Arnlov J., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Assadi R., Ausloos M., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayele H.T., Ayer R., Ayuk T.B., Azzopardi P.S., Badali H., Badawi A., Banach M., Barker-Collo S.L., Barrero L.H., Basaleem H., Baye E., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Bedi N., Bejot Y., Belachew A.B., Belay S.A., Bennett D.A., Bensenor I.M., Bernabe E., Bernstein R.S., Beyene A.S., Beyranvand T., Bhaumik S., Bhutta Z.A., Biadgo B., Bijani A., Bililign N., Birlik S.M., Birungi C., Bizuneh H., Bjerregaard P., Bjorge T., Borges G., Bosetti C., Boufous S., Bragazzi N.L., Brenner H., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Calabria B., Campos-Nonato I.R., Rincon J.C.C., Carreras G., Carrero J.J., Carvalho F., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Rivas J.C., Catala-Lopez F., Chang J.-C., Charlson F.J., Chattopadhyay A., Chaturvedi P., Chowdhury R., Christopher D.J., Chung S.-C., Ciobanu L.G., Claro R.M., Conti S., Cousin E., Criqui M.H., Dachew B.A., Dargan P.I., Daryani A., Das Neves J., Davletov K., De Castro F., De Courten B., De Neve J.-W., Degenhardt L., Demoz G.T., Des Jarlais D.C., Dey S., Dhaliwal R.S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhimal M., Doku D.T., Doyle K.E., Dubey M., Dubljanin E., Duncan B.B., Ebrahimi H., Edessa D., El Sayed Zaki M., Ermakov S.P., Erskine H.E., Esteghamati A., Faramarzi M., Farioli A., Faro A., Farvid M.S., Farzadfar F., Feigin V.L., Felisbino-Mendes M.S., Fernandes E., Ferrari A.J., Ferri C.P., Fijabi D.O., Filip I., Finger J.D., Fischer F., Flaxman A.D., Franklin R.C., Futran N.D., Gallus S., Ganji M., Gankpe F.G., Gebregergs G.B., Gebrehiwot T.T., Geleijnse J.M., Ghadimi R., Ghandour L.A., Ghimire M., Gill P.S., Ginawi I.A., Giref A.Z.Z., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Gotay C.C., Goulart A.C., Greaves F., Grosso G., Guo Y., Gupta R., Gupta V., Gutierrez R.A., Gvs M., Hafezi-Nejad N., Hagos T.B., Hailu G.B., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Hankey G.J., Harb H.L., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hassen H.Y., Havmoeller R., Hay S.I., Heibati B., Henok A., Heredia-Pi I., Hernandez-Llanes N.F., Herteliu C., Ts Tsegaw Hibstu D., Hoogar P., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hosseini M., Hostiuc M., Hu G., Huang H., Husseini A., Idrisov B., Ileanu B.V., Ilesanmi O.S., Irvani S.S.N., Islam S.M.S., Jackson M.D., Jakovljevic M., Jalu M.T., Jayatilleke A.U., Jha R.P., Jonas J.B., Jozwiak J.J., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kapil U., Kasaeian A., Kassa T.D.D., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Kebede S., Kefale A.T., Keiyoro P.N., Kengne A.P., Khader Y., Khafaie M.A., Khalil I.A., Khan M.N., Khang Y.-H., Khater M.M., Khubchandani J., Kim C.-I., Kim D., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kisa A., Kivimaki M., Kochhar S., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Krishan K., Defo B.K., Bicer B.K., Kulkarni V.S., Kumar P., Lafranconi A., Balaji A.L., Lalloo R., Lallukka T., Lam H., Lami F.H., Lan Q., Lang J.J., Lansky S., Larsson A.O., Latifi A., Leasher J.L., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leinsalu M., Leung J., Levi M., Li Y., Lim L.-L., Linn S., Liu S., Lobato-Cordero A., Lopez A.D., Lotufo P.A., Macarayan E.R.K., Machado I.E., Madotto F., Abd El Razek H.M., Abd El Razek M.M., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D.C., Mapoma C.C., Martinez-Raga J., Maulik P.K., Mazidi M., McKee M., Mehta V., Meier T., Mekonen T., Meles K.G., Melese A., Memiah P.T.N., Mendoza W., Mengistu D.T., Mensah G.A., Meretoja T.J., Mezgebe H.B., Miazgowski T., Miller T.R., Mini G., Mirica A., Mirrakhimov E.M., Moazen B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadifard N., Mohammed S., Monasta L., Moraga P., Morawska L., Mousavi S.M., Mukhopadhyay S., Musa K.I., Naheed A., Naik G., Najafi F., Nangia V., Nansseu J.R., Nayak M.S.D.P., Nejjari C., Neupane S., Neupane S.P., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen L.H., Nguyen T.H., Ningrum D.N.A., Nirayo Y.L., Noubiap J.J., Ofori-Asenso R., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olivares P.R., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Oommen A.M., Oren E., Orpana H.M., Ortega-Altamirano D.D.V., Ortiz J.R., Ota E., Owolabi M.O., Oyekale A.S., Mahesh P.A., Pana A., Park E.-K., Parry C.D.H., Parsian H., Patle A., Patton G.C., Paudel D., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Pillay J.D., Postma M.J., Pourmalek F., Prabhakaran D., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rafiei A., Rahim F., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahman M., Rahman M.A., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Raju S.B., Ram U., Rana S.M., Ranabhat C.L., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Reiner R.C., Reis C., Renzaho A.M.N., Rezai M.S., Roever L., Ronfani L., Room R., Roshandel G., Rostami A., Roth G.A., Roy A., Sabde Y.D., Saddik B., Safiri S., Sahebkar A., Saleem Z., Salomon J.A., Salvi S.S., Sanabria J., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Santomauro D.F., Santos I.S., Santric Milicevic M.M.M., Sarker A.R., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sarrafzadegan N., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Saylan M., Schaub M.P., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schottker B., Schutte A.E., Schwendicke F., Sepanlou S.G., Shaikh M.A., Sharif M., She J., Sheikh A., Shiferaw M.S., Shigematsu M., Shiri R., Shishani K., Shiue I., Shukla S.R., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silva D.A.S., Da Silva N.T., Silveira D.G.A., Sinha D.N., Sitas F., Filho A.M.S., Soofi M., Shen J., Sorensen R.J.D., Soriano J.B., Sreeramareddy C.T., Steckling N., Stein D.J., Sufiyan M.B., Sur P.J., Sykes B.L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tabuchi T., Tavakkoli M., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Tekle M.G., Thapa S., Thomas N., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Tran B.X., Troeger C.E., Truelsen T.C., Tsilimparis N., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Ullah I., Uthman O.A., Valdez P.R., Van Boven J.F.M., Vasankari T.J., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Wagnew F.W.S., Waheed Y., Wang Y.-P., Weiderpass E., Weldegebreal F., Weldegwergs K.G., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Widecka J., Wijeratne T., Wyper G.M.A., Xu G., Yamada T., Yano Y., Ye P., Yimer E.M., Yip P., Yirsaw B.D., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Zachariah G., Zaidi Z., Zamani M., Zhang X., Zodpey S., Mokdad A.H., Naghavi M., Murray C.J.L., Gakidou E., Griswold M.G., Fullman N., Hawley C., Arian N., Zimsen S.R.M., Tymeson H.D., Venkateswaran V., Tapp A.D., Forouzanfar M.H., Salama J.S., Abate K.H., Abate D., Abay S.M., Abbafati C., Abdulkader R.S., Abebe Z., Aboyans V., Abrar M.M., Acharya P., Adetokunboh O.O., Adhikari T.B., Adsuar J.C., Afarideh M., Agardh E.E., Agarwal G., Aghayan S.A., Agrawal S., Ahmed M.B., Akibu M., Akinyemiju T., Akseer N., Al Asfoor D.H., Al-Aly Z., Alahdab F., Alam K., Albujeer A., Alene K.A., Ali R., Ali S.D., Alijanzadeh M., Aljunid S.M., Alkerwi A., Allebeck P., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Aminde L.N., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Amul G.G.H., Andrei C.L., Angus C., Ansha M.G., Antonio C.A.T., Aremu O., Arnlov J., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Assadi R., Ausloos M., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayele H.T., Ayer R., Ayuk T.B., Azzopardi P.S., Badali H., Badawi A., Banach M., Barker-Collo S.L., Barrero L.H., Basaleem H., Baye E., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Bedi N., Bejot Y., Belachew A.B., Belay S.A., Bennett D.A., Bensenor I.M., Bernabe E., Bernstein R.S., Beyene A.S., Beyranvand T., Bhaumik S., Bhutta Z.A., Biadgo B., Bijani A., Bililign N., Birlik S.M., Birungi C., Bizuneh H., Bjerregaard P., Bjorge T., Borges G., Bosetti C., Boufous S., Bragazzi N.L., Brenner H., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Calabria B., Campos-Nonato I.R., Rincon J.C.C., Carreras G., Carrero J.J., Carvalho F., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Rivas J.C., Catala-Lopez F., Chang J.-C., Charlson F.J., Chattopadhyay A., Chaturvedi P., Chowdhury R., Christopher D.J., Chung S.-C., Ciobanu L.G., Claro R.M., Conti S., Cousin E., Criqui M.H., Dachew B.A., Dargan P.I., Daryani A., Das Neves J., Davletov K., De Castro F., De Courten B., De Neve J.-W., Degenhardt L., Demoz G.T., Des Jarlais D.C., Dey S., Dhaliwal R.S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhimal M., Doku D.T., Doyle K.E., Dubey M., Dubljanin E., Duncan B.B., Ebrahimi H., Edessa D., El Sayed Zaki M., Ermakov S.P., Erskine H.E., Esteghamati A., Faramarzi M., Farioli A., Faro A., Farvid M.S., Farzadfar F., Feigin V.L., Felisbino-Mendes M.S., Fernandes E., Ferrari A.J., Ferri C.P., Fijabi D.O., Filip I., Finger J.D., Fischer F., Flaxman A.D., Franklin R.C., Futran N.D., Gallus S., Ganji M., Gankpe F.G., Gebregergs G.B., Gebrehiwot T.T., Geleijnse J.M., Ghadimi R., Ghandour L.A., Ghimire M., Gill P.S., Ginawi I.A., Giref A.Z.Z., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Gotay C.C., Goulart A.C., Greaves F., Grosso G., Guo Y., Gupta R., Gupta V., Gutierrez R.A., Gvs M., Hafezi-Nejad N., Hagos T.B., Hailu G.B., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Hankey G.J., Harb H.L., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hassen H.Y., Havmoeller R., Hay S.I., Heibati B., Henok A., Heredia-Pi I., Hernandez-Llanes N.F., Herteliu C., Ts Tsegaw Hibstu D., Hoogar P., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hosseini M., Hostiuc M., Hu G., Huang H., Husseini A., Idrisov B., Ileanu B.V., Ilesanmi O.S., Irvani S.S.N., Islam S.M.S., Jackson M.D., Jakovljevic M., Jalu M.T., Jayatilleke A.U., Jha R.P., Jonas J.B., Jozwiak J.J., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kapil U., Kasaeian A., Kassa T.D.D., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Kebede S., Kefale A.T., Keiyoro P.N., Kengne A.P., Khader Y., Khafaie M.A., Khalil I.A., Khan M.N., Khang Y.-H., Khater M.M., Khubchandani J., Kim C.-I., Kim D., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kisa A., Kivimaki M., Kochhar S., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Krishan K., Defo B.K., Bicer B.K., Kulkarni V.S., Kumar P., Lafranconi A., Balaji A.L., Lalloo R., Lallukka T., Lam H., Lami F.H., Lan Q., Lang J.J., Lansky S., Larsson A.O., Latifi A., Leasher J.L., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leinsalu M., Leung J., Levi M., Li Y., Lim L.-L., Linn S., Liu S., Lobato-Cordero A., Lopez A.D., Lotufo P.A., Macarayan E.R.K., Machado I.E., Madotto F., Abd El Razek H.M., Abd El Razek M.M., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D.C., Mapoma C.C., Martinez-Raga J., Maulik P.K., Mazidi M., McKee M., Mehta V., Meier T., Mekonen T., Meles K.G., Melese A., Memiah P.T.N., Mendoza W., Mengistu D.T., Mensah G.A., Meretoja T.J., Mezgebe H.B., Miazgowski T., Miller T.R., Mini G., Mirica A., Mirrakhimov E.M., Moazen B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadifard N., Mohammed S., Monasta L., Moraga P., Morawska L., Mousavi S.M., Mukhopadhyay S., Musa K.I., Naheed A., Naik G., Najafi F., Nangia V., Nansseu J.R., Nayak M.S.D.P., Nejjari C., Neupane S., Neupane S.P., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen L.H., Nguyen T.H., Ningrum D.N.A., Nirayo Y.L., Noubiap J.J., Ofori-Asenso R., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olivares P.R., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Oommen A.M., Oren E., Orpana H.M., Ortega-Altamirano D.D.V., Ortiz J.R., Ota E., Owolabi M.O., Oyekale A.S., Mahesh P.A., Pana A., Park E.-K., Parry C.D.H., Parsian H., Patle A., Patton G.C., Paudel D., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Pillay J.D., Postma M.J., Pourmalek F., Prabhakaran D., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rafiei A., Rahim F., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahman M., Rahman M.A., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Raju S.B., Ram U., Rana S.M., Ranabhat C.L., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Reiner R.C., Reis C., Renzaho A.M.N., Rezai M.S., Roever L., Ronfani L., Room R., Roshandel G., Rostami A., Roth G.A., Roy A., Sabde Y.D., Saddik B., Safiri S., Sahebkar A., Saleem Z., Salomon J.A., Salvi S.S., Sanabria J., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Santomauro D.F., Santos I.S., Santric Milicevic M.M.M., Sarker A.R., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sarrafzadegan N., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Saylan M., Schaub M.P., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schottker B., Schutte A.E., Schwendicke F., Sepanlou S.G., Shaikh M.A., Sharif M., She J., Sheikh A., Shiferaw M.S., Shigematsu M., Shiri R., Shishani K., Shiue I., Shukla S.R., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silva D.A.S., Da Silva N.T., Silveira D.G.A., Sinha D.N., Sitas F., Filho A.M.S., and Soofi M.
- Abstract
Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted lifeyears (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older. Method(s): Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health. Finding(s): Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of agestandardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4.3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13.6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attrib
- Published
- 2018
12. Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: An analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.
- Author
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Soljak M., Sykes B.L., Sylte D.O., Szoeke C.E.I., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadakamadla S.K., Tandon N., Tao T., Tarekegn Y.L., Tavakkoli M., Taveira N., Tegegne T.K., Shifa G.T., Terkawi A.S., Tessema G.A., Thakur J.S., Thankappan K.R., Tiruye T.Y., Tobe-Gai R., Topor-Madry R., Torre A., Tortajada M., Tran B.X., Troeger C., Truelsen T., Tsoi D., Tuem K.B., Tuzcu E.M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Uneke C.J., Updike R., Uthman O.A., Van Boven J.F.M., Van Donkelaar A., Varughese S., Vasankari T., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V.V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Wadilo F., Wakayo T., Wallin M.T., Wang Y.-P., Weichenthal S., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss D.J., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Wijeratne T., Wiysonge C.S., Woldeyes B.G., Wolfe C.D.A., Woodbrook R., Xavier D., Xu G., Yadgir S., Yakob B., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Ye P., Yimam H.H., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Zaidi Z., El Sayed Zaki M., Zavala-Arciniega L., Zhang X., Zipkin B., Zodpey S., Lim S.S., Murray C.J.L., De Courten B., Thrift A.G., Fullman N., Barber R.M., Abajobir A.A., Abate K.H., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abdulle A.M., Abera S.F., Aboyans V., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M.E., Adedeji I.A., Adetokunboh O., Afshin A., Agrawal A., Agrawal S., Kiadaliri A.A., Ahmadieh H., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Aiyar S., Akinyemi R.O., Akseer N., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alam N., Alasfoor D., Alene K.A., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Allen C., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Altirkawi K.A., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Amini E., Ammar W., Antonio C.A.T., Ansari H., Anwari P., Arora M., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Asayesh H., Asgedom S.W., Assadi R., Atey T.M., Atre S.R., Avila-Burgos L., Arthur Avokpaho E.F.G., Awasthi A., Azzopardi P., Bacha U., Badawi A., Balakrishnan K., Bannick M.S., Barac A., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T., Barrero L.H., Basu S., Battle K.E., Baune B.T., Beardsley J., Bedi N., Beghi E., Bejot Y., Bell M.L., Bennett D.A., Bennett J.R., Bensenor I.M., Berhane A., Berhe D.F., Bernabe E., Betsu B.D., Beuran M., Beyene A.S., Bhala N., Bhansali A., Bhatt S., Bhutta Z.A., Bikbov B., Bilal A.I., Birungi C., Biryukov S., Bizuayehu H.M., Blosser C.D., Boneya D.J., Bose D., Bou-Orm I.R., Brauer M., Breitborde N.J.K., Brugha T.S., Bulto L.N.B., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Cameron E., Campuzano J.C., Carabin H., Cardenas R., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Casey D.C., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Rivas J.C., Castro R.E., Catala-Lopez F., Cercy K., Chang H.-Y., Chang J.-C., Charlson F.J., Chew A., Chisumpa V.H., Chitheer A.A., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Cirillo M., Cooper C., Criqui M.H., Cromwell E.A., Crump J.A., Dandona L., Dandona R., Dargan P.I., Das Neves J., Davitoiu D.V., De Steur H., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Deribe K., DeVeber G.A., Ding E.L., Djalalinia S., Do H.P., Dokova K., Doku D.T., Dorsey E.R., Driscoll T.R., Dubey M., Duncan B.B., Ebel B.E., Ebrahimi H., El-Khatib Z.Z., Enayati A., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Erskine H.E., Eshrati B., Eskandarieh S., Esteghamati A., Estep K., Faraon E.J.A., Sofia E Sa Farinha C., Faro A., Farzadfar F., Fazeli M.S., Feigin V.L., Feigl A.B., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes J.C., Ferrari A.J., Feyissa T.R., Filip I., Fischer F., Fitzmaurice C., Flaxman A.D., Foigt N., Foreman K.J., Frank T., Franklin R.C., Friedman J., Frostad J.J., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Gakidou E., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gebrehiwot T.T., Geleijnse J.M., Geleto A., Gemechu B.L., Gething P.W., Gibney K.B., Gill P.S., Gillum R.F., Giref A.Z., Gishu M.D., Giussani G., Glenn S.D., Godwin W.W., Goldberg E.M., Gona P.N., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Goryakin Y., Griswold M., Gugnani H.C., Gupta R., Gupta T., Gupta V., Hafezi-Nejad N., Bidgoli H.H., Hailu G.B., Hamadeh R.R., Hammami M., Hankey G.J., Harb H.L., Hareri H.A., Hassanvand M.S., Havmoeller R., Hawley C., Hay S.I., He J., Hendrie D., Henry N.J., Heredia-Pi I.B., Hoek H.W., Holmberg M., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hostiuc S., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Htet A.S., Huang H., Huang J.J., Huynh C., Iburg K.M., Ikeda C., Inoue M., Irvine C.M.S., Jacobsen K.H., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M.B., Jauregui A., Javanbakht M., Jeemon P., Jha V., John D., Johnson C.O., Johnson S.C., Jonas J.B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kamal R., Karch A., Karema C.K., Kasaeian A., Kassebaum N.J., Kastor A., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Keiyoro P.N., Kelbore S.G., Kemmer L., Kengne A.P., Kesavachandran C.N., Khader Y.S., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khang Y.-H., Khosravi A., Khubchandani J., Kieling C., Kim D., Kim J.Y., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K.A., Kivimaki M., Kokubo Y., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Krohn K.J., Defo B.K., Bicer B.K., Kulikoff X.R., Kumar G.A., Kutz M.J., Kyu H.H., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Lansingh V.C., Larsson A., Lazarus J.V., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leung J., Leung R., Levi M., Li Y., Liben M.L., Linn S., Liu P.Y., Liu S., Lodha R., Looker K.J., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Lozano R., Lucas T.C.D., Lunevicius R., Mackay M.T., Maddison E.R., El Razek H.M.A., El Razek M.M.A., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malhotra R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manguerra H., Mantovani L.G., Manyazewal T., Mapoma C.C., Marks G.B., Martin R.V., Martinez-Raga J., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Mathur M.R., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGaughey M., McGrath J.J., McKee M., Mehata S., Mehndiratta M.M., Meier T., Meles K.G., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengesha M.M., Mengistie M.A., Mensah G.A., Mensink G.B.M., Mereta S.T., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mezgebe H.B., Micha R., Millear A., Miller T.R., Minnig S., Mirarefin M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A., Mishra S.R., Mitchell P.B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammed K.E., Mohammed S., Mohan M.B.V., Mokdad A.H., Mollenkopf S.K., Monasta L., Hernandez J.C.M., Montico M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Morrison S.D., Moses M.W., Mountjoy-Venning C., Mueller U.O., Muller K., Murthy G.V.S., Musa K.I., Naghavi M., Naheed A., Naidoo K.S., Nangia V., Natarajan G., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen G., Nguyen M., Nguyen Q.L., Nguyen T.H., Nichols E., Ningrum D.N.A., Nomura M., Nong V.M., Norheim O.F., Noubiap J.J.N., Obermeyer C.M., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olagunju T.O., Olivares P.R., Olsen H.E., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Ong K., Oren E., Ortiz A., Owolabi M.O., Mahesh P.A., Pana A., Panda B.K., Panda-Jonas S., Papachristou C., Park E.-K., Patton G.C., Paulson K., Pereira D.M., Perico D.N., Pesudovs K., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Pigott D.M., Pillay J.D., Pinho C., Piradov M.A., Pishgar F., Poulton R.G., Pourmalek F., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rao P.C., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Ur Rahman M.H., Rahman M.A., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Ram U., Ranabhat C.L., Rawaf S., Reidy P., Reiner R.C., Reinig N., Reitsma M.B., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Resnikoff S., Rezaei S., Blancas M.J.R., Roba K.T., Rojas-Rueda D., Rokni M.B., Roshandel G., Roth G.A., Roy A., Rubagotti E., Sadat N., Safdarian M., Safi S., Safiri S., Sagar R., Salama J., Salomon J.A., Samy A.M., Sanabria J.R., Santomauro D., Santos I.S., Santos J.V., Santric Milicevic M.M., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Saylan M.I., Shirude S., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schneider M.T., Schottker B., Schutte A.E., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Seedat S., Sepanlou S.G., Servan-Mori E.E., Shackelford K.A., Shaheen A., Shahraz S., Shaikh M.A., Shamsipour M., Shamsizadeh M., Islam S.M.S., Sharma J., Sharma R., She J., Shi P., Shibuya K., Shields C., Shiferaw M.S., Shigematsu M., Shin M.-J., Shiri R., Shirkoohi R., Shishani K., Shoman H., Shrime M.G., Silberberg D.H., Silva D.A.S., Silva J.P., Silveira D.G.A., Singh J.A., Singh V., Sinha D.N., Skiadaresi E., Slepak E.L., Sligar A., Smith A., Smith D.L., Smith M., Sobaih B.H.A., Sobngwi E., Soneji S., Sorensen R.J.D., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Stanaway J.D., Stein D.J., Steiner C., Steinke S., Stokes M.A., Strub B., Sufiyan M.B., Abdulkader R.S., Sunguya B.F., Sur P.J., Swaminathan S., Soljak M., Sykes B.L., Sylte D.O., Szoeke C.E.I., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadakamadla S.K., Tandon N., Tao T., Tarekegn Y.L., Tavakkoli M., Taveira N., Tegegne T.K., Shifa G.T., Terkawi A.S., Tessema G.A., Thakur J.S., Thankappan K.R., Tiruye T.Y., Tobe-Gai R., Topor-Madry R., Torre A., Tortajada M., Tran B.X., Troeger C., Truelsen T., Tsoi D., Tuem K.B., Tuzcu E.M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Uneke C.J., Updike R., Uthman O.A., Van Boven J.F.M., Van Donkelaar A., Varughese S., Vasankari T., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V.V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Wadilo F., Wakayo T., Wallin M.T., Wang Y.-P., Weichenthal S., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss D.J., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Wijeratne T., Wiysonge C.S., Woldeyes B.G., Wolfe C.D.A., Woodbrook R., Xavier D., Xu G., Yadgir S., Yakob B., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Ye P., Yimam H.H., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Zaidi Z., El Sayed Zaki M., Zavala-Arciniega L., Zhang X., Zipkin B., Zodpey S., Lim S.S., Murray C.J.L., De Courten B., Thrift A.G., Fullman N., Barber R.M., Abajobir A.A., Abate K.H., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abdulle A.M., Abera S.F., Aboyans V., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M.E., Adedeji I.A., Adetokunboh O., Afshin A., Agrawal A., Agrawal S., Kiadaliri A.A., Ahmadieh H., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Aiyar S., Akinyemi R.O., Akseer N., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alam N., Alasfoor D., Alene K.A., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Allen C., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Altirkawi K.A., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Amini E., Ammar W., Antonio C.A.T., Ansari H., Anwari P., Arora M., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Asayesh H., Asgedom S.W., Assadi R., Atey T.M., Atre S.R., Avila-Burgos L., Arthur Avokpaho E.F.G., Awasthi A., Azzopardi P., Bacha U., Badawi A., Balakrishnan K., Bannick M.S., Barac A., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T., Barrero L.H., Basu S., Battle K.E., Baune B.T., Beardsley J., Bedi N., Beghi E., Bejot Y., Bell M.L., Bennett D.A., Bennett J.R., Bensenor I.M., Berhane A., Berhe D.F., Bernabe E., Betsu B.D., Beuran M., Beyene A.S., Bhala N., Bhansali A., Bhatt S., Bhutta Z.A., Bikbov B., Bilal A.I., Birungi C., Biryukov S., Bizuayehu H.M., Blosser C.D., Boneya D.J., Bose D., Bou-Orm I.R., Brauer M., Breitborde N.J.K., Brugha T.S., Bulto L.N.B., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Cameron E., Campuzano J.C., Carabin H., Cardenas R., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Casey D.C., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Rivas J.C., Castro R.E., Catala-Lopez F., Cercy K., Chang H.-Y., Chang J.-C., Charlson F.J., Chew A., Chisumpa V.H., Chitheer A.A., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Cirillo M., Cooper C., Criqui M.H., Cromwell E.A., Crump J.A., Dandona L., Dandona R., Dargan P.I., Das Neves J., Davitoiu D.V., De Steur H., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Deribe K., DeVeber G.A., Ding E.L., Djalalinia S., Do H.P., Dokova K., Doku D.T., Dorsey E.R., Driscoll T.R., Dubey M., Duncan B.B., Ebel B.E., Ebrahimi H., El-Khatib Z.Z., Enayati A., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Erskine H.E., Eshrati B., Eskandarieh S., Esteghamati A., Estep K., Faraon E.J.A., Sofia E Sa Farinha C., Faro A., Farzadfar F., Fazeli M.S., Feigin V.L., Feigl A.B., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes J.C., Ferrari A.J., Feyissa T.R., Filip I., Fischer F., Fitzmaurice C., Flaxman A.D., Foigt N., Foreman K.J., Frank T., Franklin R.C., Friedman J., Frostad J.J., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Gakidou E., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gebrehiwot T.T., Geleijnse J.M., Geleto A., Gemechu B.L., Gething P.W., Gibney K.B., Gill P.S., Gillum R.F., Giref A.Z., Gishu M.D., Giussani G., Glenn S.D., Godwin W.W., Goldberg E.M., Gona P.N., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Goryakin Y., Griswold M., Gugnani H.C., Gupta R., Gupta T., Gupta V., Hafezi-Nejad N., Bidgoli H.H., Hailu G.B., Hamadeh R.R., Hammami M., Hankey G.J., Harb H.L., Hareri H.A., Hassanvand M.S., Havmoeller R., Hawley C., Hay S.I., He J., Hendrie D., Henry N.J., Heredia-Pi I.B., Hoek H.W., Holmberg M., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hostiuc S., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Htet A.S., Huang H., Huang J.J., Huynh C., Iburg K.M., Ikeda C., Inoue M., Irvine C.M.S., Jacobsen K.H., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M.B., Jauregui A., Javanbakht M., Jeemon P., Jha V., John D., Johnson C.O., Johnson S.C., Jonas J.B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kamal R., Karch A., Karema C.K., Kasaeian A., Kassebaum N.J., Kastor A., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Keiyoro P.N., Kelbore S.G., Kemmer L., Kengne A.P., Kesavachandran C.N., Khader Y.S., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khang Y.-H., Khosravi A., Khubchandani J., Kieling C., Kim D., Kim J.Y., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K.A., Kivimaki M., Kokubo Y., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Krohn K.J., Defo B.K., Bicer B.K., Kulikoff X.R., Kumar G.A., Kutz M.J., Kyu H.H., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Lansingh V.C., Larsson A., Lazarus J.V., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leung J., Leung R., Levi M., Li Y., Liben M.L., Linn S., Liu P.Y., Liu S., Lodha R., Looker K.J., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Lozano R., Lucas T.C.D., Lunevicius R., Mackay M.T., Maddison E.R., El Razek H.M.A., El Razek M.M.A., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malhotra R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manguerra H., Mantovani L.G., Manyazewal T., Mapoma C.C., Marks G.B., Martin R.V., Martinez-Raga J., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Mathur M.R., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGaughey M., McGrath J.J., McKee M., Mehata S., Mehndiratta M.M., Meier T., Meles K.G., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengesha M.M., Mengistie M.A., Mensah G.A., Mensink G.B.M., Mereta S.T., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mezgebe H.B., Micha R., Millear A., Miller T.R., Minnig S., Mirarefin M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A., Mishra S.R., Mitchell P.B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammed K.E., Mohammed S., Mohan M.B.V., Mokdad A.H., Mollenkopf S.K., Monasta L., Hernandez J.C.M., Montico M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Morrison S.D., Moses M.W., Mountjoy-Venning C., Mueller U.O., Muller K., Murthy G.V.S., Musa K.I., Naghavi M., Naheed A., Naidoo K.S., Nangia V., Natarajan G., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen G., Nguyen M., Nguyen Q.L., Nguyen T.H., Nichols E., Ningrum D.N.A., Nomura M., Nong V.M., Norheim O.F., Noubiap J.J.N., Obermeyer C.M., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olagunju T.O., Olivares P.R., Olsen H.E., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Ong K., Oren E., Ortiz A., Owolabi M.O., Mahesh P.A., Pana A., Panda B.K., Panda-Jonas S., Papachristou C., Park E.-K., Patton G.C., Paulson K., Pereira D.M., Perico D.N., Pesudovs K., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Pigott D.M., Pillay J.D., Pinho C., Piradov M.A., Pishgar F., Poulton R.G., Pourmalek F., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rao P.C., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Ur Rahman M.H., Rahman M.A., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Ram U., Ranabhat C.L., Rawaf S., Reidy P., Reiner R.C., Reinig N., Reitsma M.B., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Resnikoff S., Rezaei S., Blancas M.J.R., Roba K.T., Rojas-Rueda D., Rokni M.B., Roshandel G., Roth G.A., Roy A., Rubagotti E., Sadat N., Safdarian M., Safi S., Safiri S., Sagar R., Salama J., Salomon J.A., Samy A.M., Sanabria J.R., Santomauro D., Santos I.S., Santos J.V., Santric Milicevic M.M., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Saylan M.I., Shirude S., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schneider M.T., Schottker B., Schutte A.E., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Seedat S., Sepanlou S.G., Servan-Mori E.E., Shackelford K.A., Shaheen A., Shahraz S., Shaikh M.A., Shamsipour M., Shamsizadeh M., Islam S.M.S., Sharma J., Sharma R., She J., Shi P., Shibuya K., Shields C., Shiferaw M.S., Shigematsu M., Shin M.-J., Shiri R., Shirkoohi R., Shishani K., Shoman H., Shrime M.G., Silberberg D.H., Silva D.A.S., Silva J.P., Silveira D.G.A., Singh J.A., Singh V., Sinha D.N., Skiadaresi E., Slepak E.L., Sligar A., Smith A., Smith D.L., Smith M., Sobaih B.H.A., Sobngwi E., Soneji S., Sorensen R.J.D., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Stanaway J.D., Stein D.J., Steiner C., Steinke S., Stokes M.A., Strub B., Sufiyan M.B., Abdulkader R.S., Sunguya B.F., Sur P.J., and Swaminathan S.
- Abstract
Background: The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Method(s): We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 25th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 975th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 567 (IQR 319-668) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (868, 95% uncertainty interval 846-889), Iceland (860, 841-876), and Sweden (856, 818-878) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (109, 96-119), the Central African Republic (110, 88-138), and Somalia (113, 95-131) recording the lowest. Betwee
- Published
- 2018
13. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.
- Author
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Sartorius B., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Villafaina S., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Vosoughi K., Vujcic I.S., Wagner G.R., Wagnew F.W.S., Waheed Y., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Wassie M.M., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss D.J., Weiss J., Weldegebreal F., Weldegwergs K.G., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Widecka J., Widecka K., Wijeratne T., Winkler A.S., Wiysonge C.S., Wolfe C.D.A., Wondemagegn S.A., Wu S., Wyper G.M.A., Xu G., Yadav R., Yakob B., Yamada T., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Yasin Y.J., Ye P., Yearwood J.A., YentA1/4r G.K., Yeshaneh A., Yimer E.M., Yip P., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., York H.W., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Yousefifard M., Yu C., Zachariah G., Zadnik V., Zafar S., Zaidi Z., Zaman S.B., Zamani M., Zare Z., Zeeb H., Zeleke M.M., Zenebe Z.M., Zerfu T.A., Zhang K., Zhang X., Zhou M., Zhu J., Zodpey S., Zucker I., Zuhlke L.J.J., Lopez A.D., Gakidou E., Murray C.J.L., de Courten B., Thrift A.G., 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Tortajada-GirbACopyrights M., Tovani-Palone M.R., Towbin J.A., Tran B.X., Tran K.B., Tripathi S., Tripathy S.P., Truelsen T.C., Truong N.T., Tsadik A.G., Tsilimparis N., Tudor Car L., Tuzcu E.M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Ullah I., Usman M.S., Uthman O.A., Uzun S.B., Vaduganathan M., Vaezi A., Vaidya G., Valdez P.R., Varavikova E., Varughese S., Vasankari T.J., and Vasconcelos A.M.N.
- Abstract
Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Method(s): The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent comp
- Published
- 2018
14. Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.
- Author
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Servan-Mori E., Usman M.S., Uthman O.A., Vaduganathan M., Vaezi A., Vaidya G., Valdez P.R., Van Donkelaar A., Varavikova E., Vasankari T.J., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Villafaina S., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vollmer S., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Vosoughi K., Vujcic I.S., Wagner G.R., Wagnew F.S., Waheed Y., Walson J.L., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Wassie M.M., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss J., Weldegebreal F., Weldegwergs K.G., Werdecker A., Werkneh A.A., West T.E., Westerman R., Whisnant J.L., Whiteford H.A., Widecka J., Widecka K., Wijeratne T., Wilner L.B., Winkler A.S., Wiyeh A.B., Wiysonge C.S., Wolde H.F., Wolfe C.D.A., Wu S., Xavier D., Xu G., Xu R., Yadollahpour A., Jabbari S.H.Y., Yakob B., Yamada T., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Yasin Y.J., Ye P., Yearwood J.A., Yeshaneh A., Yimer E.M., Yip P., Yirsaw B.D., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Yonga G., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Yousefifard M., Yu C., Zaman S.B., Zamani M., Zare Z., Zavala-Arciniega 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Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hosseini S.M., Hosseinzadeh M., Hostiuc M., Hostiuc S., Hotez P.J., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Hsiao T., Hu G., Huang J.J., Huynh C.K., Igumbor E.U., Ikeda C.T., Ilesanmi O.S., Iqbal U., Irvani S.S.N., Irvine C.M.S., Islam S.M.S., Islami F., Ivers R.Q., Izadi N., Jacobsen K.H., Jahangiry L., Jahanmehr N., Jain S.K., Jakovljevic M., Jalu M.T., Jamal A.A., James S.L., Jassal S.K., Javanbakht M., Jayatilleke A.U., Jeemon P., Jha R.P., Jha V., Ji J.S., Johnson C.O., Johnson S.C., Jonas J.B., Jonnagaddala J., Shushtari Z.J., Joshi A., Jozwiak J.J., Jungari S.B., Jurisson M., Madhanraj K., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kahssay M., Kalani R., Kapil U., Karami M., Matin B.K., Karanikolos M., Karimi N., Karimi S.M., Karimi-Sari H., Kasaeian A., Kassa D.H., Kassa G.M., Kassa T.D., Kassa Z.Y., Kassebaum N.J., Katikireddi S.V., Kaul A., Kawakami N., Kazemi Z., Karyani A.K., Kazi D.S., Prakash K.C., Kebede S., Keiyoro P.N., Kemmer L., Kemp G.R., Kengne A.P., Keren A., Kesavachandran C.N., Khader Y.S., Khafaei B., Khafaie M.A., Khajavi A., Khalid N., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khan M.S., Khan M.A., Khang Y.-H., Khanna T., Khater M.M., Khatony A., Khazaeipour Z., Khazaie H., Khoja A.T., Khosravi A., Khosravi M.H., Khubchandani J., Kiadaliri A.A., Kiarie H.W., Kibret G.D., Kiirithio D.N., Kim D., Kim J.Y., Kim Y.-E., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kinra S., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K., Kissoon N., Kivimaki M., Kocarnik J.M., Kochhar S., Kokubo Y., Kolola T., Kopec J.A., Kosek M.N., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M.A., Krishan K., Krohn K.J., Defo B.K., Kucuk Bicer B., Kudom A.A., Kulikoff X.R., Kumar G.A., Kumar M., Kumar P., Kutz M.J., Kyu H.H., Lachat C., Lad D.P., Lad S.D., Lafranconi A., Lagat A.K., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Lam H., Lami F.H., Lamichhane P., Lan Q., Lang J.J., Lansingh V.C., Lansky S., Larson H.J., Larsson A.O., Laryea D.O., Lassi Z.S., Latifi A., Lau K.M.-M., Laxmaiah A., Lazarus J.V., Leasher J.L., Lebedev G., Ledesma J.R., Lee J.B., Lee P.H., Leever A.T., Leigh J., Leinsalu M., Leshargie C.T., Leung J., Lewycka S., Li S., Li X., Li Y., Liang J., Liang X., Liben M.L., Lim L.-L., Limenih M.A., Linn S., Liu S., Liu Y., Lodha R., Logroscino G., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Lucchesi L.R., Lyons R.A., Macarayan E.R.K., Mackay M.T., Maddison E.R., Madotto F., Maghavani D.P., Magis-Rodriguez C., Mahotra N.B., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manda A.-L., Mandarano-Filho L.G., Mangalam S., Manguerra H., Mansournia M.A., Mapoma C.C., Maravilla J.C., Marcenes W., Marks A., Martin R.V., Martins S.C.O., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Mashamba-Thompson T.P., Massenburg B.B., Mathur M.R., Maulik P.K., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGrath J.J., McKee M., McMahon B.J., Mehata S., Mehndiratta M.M., Mehrotra R., Mehta K.M., Mehta V., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Mekonen T., Mekonnen T.C.C., Meles H.G., Melese A., Melku M., Memiah P.T.N., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengistu D.T., Mengistu G., Mensah G.A., Mensink G.B.M., Mereta S.T., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mestrovic T., Mezgebe H.B., Miazgowski B., Miazgowski T., Millear A.I., Miller T.R., Miller-Petrie M.K., Milne G.J., Mini G.K., Minnig S.P., Mirabi P., Mirarefin M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A.T., Mitchell P.B., Moazen B., Moghadamnia A.A., Mohajer B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadi M., Mohammadifard N., Mohammadnia-Afrouzi M., Mohammed M.A., Mohammed S., Mohan M.B.V., Mohan V., Mohebi F., Moitra M., Mokdad A.H., Molokhia M., Monasta L., Montanez J.C., Moosazadeh M., Moradi G., Moradi M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moradinazar M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Morgado-da-Costa J., Morisaki N., Morrison S.D., Mosapour A., Moschos M.M., Mountjoy-Venning W.C., Mouodi S., Mousavi S.M., Muche A.A., Muchie K.F., Mueller U.O., Muhammed O.S.S., Mukhopadhyay S., Mullany E.C., Muller K., Mumford J.E., Murhekar M., Murthy G.V.S., Murthy S., Musa J., Musa K.I., Mustafa G., Muthupandian S., Nabhan A.F., Nachega J.B., Nagarajan 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Papantoniou N., Park E.-K., Parry C.D.H., Parsian H., Patel S., Pati S., Patle A., Patton G.C., Paturi V.R., Paudel D., Paulson K.R., Pearce N., Peprah E.K., Pereira D.M., Perico N., Pervaiz A., Pesudovs K., Petri W.A., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Pigott D.M., Pillay J.D., Pirsaheb M., Pletcher M., Pond C.D., Postma M.J., Pourshams A., Poustchi H., Prabhakaran D., Prakash S., Prasad N., Purcell C.A., Pyakurel M., Qorbani M., Quansah R., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rafiei A., Rahim F., Rahimi K., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Rahman M.S., Rahman M.H.U., Rahman M.A., Rahman S.U., Rai R.K., Rajati F., Rajsic S., Ram U., Rana S.M., Ranabhat C.L., Ranjan P., Rasella D., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Razo-Garcia C., Reddy K.S., Reiner R.C., Reis C., Reitsma M.B., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Resnikoff S., Reynales-Shigematsu L.M., Rezaei S., Rezaeian S., Rezai M.S., Riahi S.M., Ribeiro A.L.P., Rios-Blancas M.J., Roba K.T., Roberts N.L.S., Roever L., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Rostami A., Roth G.A., Roy A., Rubagotti E., Ruhago G.M., Sabde Y.D., Sachdev P.S., Saddik B., Sadeghi E., Safari H., Safari Y., Safari-Faramani R., Safdarian M., Safi S., Safiri S., Sagar R., Sahebkar A., Sahraian M.A., Sajadi H.S., Salam N., Salama J.S., Salamati P., De Freitas Saldanha R., Saleem Z., Salimi Y., Salimzadeh H., Salomon J.A., Salvi S.S., Salz I., Sambala E.Z., Samy A.M., Sanabria J., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Santos I.S., Milicevic M.M.S., Jose B.P.S., Sardana M., Sarker A.R., Sarrafzadegan N., Sartorius B., Sarvi S., Sathian B., Satpathy M., Savic M., Sawant A.R., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Saylan M., Sayyah M., Schaeffner E., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schottker B., Schutte A.E., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Seedat S., Sekerija M., Sepanlou S.G., Seyedmousavi S., Shabaninejad H., Shackelford K.A., Shafieesabet A., Shaheen A.A., Shaikh M.A., Shams-Beyranvand M., Shamsi M.B., Shamsizadeh M., Sharafi H., Sharafi K., Sharif M., Sharif-Alhoseini M., Sharma J., Sharma R., Sharma S.K., She 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Tanser F.C., Tassew A.A., Tassew S.G., Tavakkoli M., Taveira N., Tawye N.Y., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Tekalign T.G., Tekle M.G., Temesgen H., Temsah M.-H., Temsah O., Terkawi A.S., Teshale M.Y., Teshome D.F., Tessema B., Teweldemedhin M., Thakur J.S., Thankappan K.R., Theis A., Thirunavukkarasu S., Thomas L.A., Thomas N., Thomson A.J., Tilahun B., To Q.G., Tobe-Gai R., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Torre A.E., Tortajada-Girbes M., Tovani-Palone M.R., Towbin J.A., Tran B.X., Tran K.B., Tran T.T., Tripathy S.P., Troeger C.E., Truelsen T.C., Tsadik A.G., Car L.T., Tuzcu E.M., Tymeson H.D., Ukwaja K.N., Ullah I., and Updike R.L.
- Abstract
Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Method(s): We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile and 100 as the 97.5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the prob
- Published
- 2018
15. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 Diseases and Injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.
- Author
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She J., Thankappan K.R., Thomas N., Tilahun B., To Q.G., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Torre A.E., Tortajada-Girbes M., Touvier M., Tovani-Palone M.R., Towbin J.A., Tran B.X., Tran K.B., Troeger C.E., Truelsen T.C., Tsilimbaris M.K., Tsoi D., Tudor Car L., Tuzcu E.M., Ukwaja K.N., Ullah I., Undurraga E.A., Unutzer J., Updike R.L., Usman M.S., Uthman O.A., Vaduganathan M., Vaezi A., Valdez P.R., Varughese S., Vasankari T.J., Venketasubramanian N., Villafaina S., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vollset S.E., Vosoughi K., Vujcic I.S., Wagnew F.S., Waheed Y., Waller S.G., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss D.J., Weldegebreal F., Weldegwergs K.G., Werdecker A., West T.E., Whiteford H.A., Widecka J., Wijeratne T., Wilner L.B., Wilson S., Winkler A.S., Wiyeh A.B., Wiysonge C.S., Wolfe C.D.A., Woolf A.D., Wu S., Wu Y.-C., Wyper G.M.A., Xavier D., Xu G., Yadgir S., Yadollahpour A., Yahyazadeh Jabbari S.H., Yamada T., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Yasin Y.J., Yeshaneh A., Yimer E.M., Yip P., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Yousefifard M., Yu C., Zadnik V., Zaidi Z., Zaman S.B., Zamani M., Zare Z., Zeleke A.J., Zenebe Z.M., Zhang K., Zhao Z., Zhou M., Zodpey S., Zucker I., Vos T., Murray C.J.L., De Courten B., Fox J., James S.L., Abate D., Abate K.H., Abay S.M., Abbafati C., Abbasi N., Abbastabar H., Abd-Allah F., Abdela J., Abdelalim A., Abdollahpour I., Abdulkader R.S., Abebe Z., Abera S.F., Abil O.Z., Abraha H.N., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M.E., Accrombessi M.M.K., Acharya D., Acharya P., Ackerman I.N., Adamu A.A., Adebayo O.M., Adekanmbi V., Adetokunboh O.O., Adib M.G., Adsuar J.C., Afanvi K.A., Afarideh M., Afshin A., Agarwal G., Agesa K.M., Aggarwal R., Aghayan S.A., Agrawal S., Ahmadi A., Ahmadi M., Ahmadieh H., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Akinyemiju T., Akseer N., Al-Aly Z., Al-Eyadhy A., Al-Mekhlafi H.M., Al-Raddadi R.M., Alahdab F., Alam K., Alam T., Alashi A., Alavian S.M., Alene K.A., Alijanzadeh M., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Aljunid S.M., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Alouani M.M.L., Altirkawi K., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Aminde L.N., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Anber N.H., Andrei C.L., Androudi S., Animut M.D., Anjomshoa M., Ansha M.G., Antonio C.A.T., Anwari P., Arabloo J., Arauz A., Aremu O., Ariani F., Armoon B., Arnlov J., Arora A., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Asayesh H., Asghar R.J., Ataro Z., Atre S.R., Ausloos M., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayala Quintanilla B.P., Ayer R., Azzopardi P.S., Babazadeh A., Badali H., Badawi A., Bali A.G., Ballesteros K.E., Ballew S.H., Banach M., Banoub J.A.M., Banstola A., Barac A., Barboza M.A., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T.W., Barrero L.H., Baune B.T., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Bedi N., Beghi E., Behzadifar M., Bejot Y., Belachew A.B., Belay Y.A., Bell M.L., Bello A.K., Bensenor I.M., Bernabe E., Bernstein R.S., Beuran M., Beyranvand T., Bhala N., Bhattarai S., Bhaumik S., Bhutta Z.A., Biadgo B., Bijani A., Bikbov B., Bilano V., Bililign N., Bin Sayeed M.S., Bisanzio D., Blacker B.F., Blyth F.M., Bou-Orm I.R., Boufous S., Bourne R., Brady O.J., Brainin M., Brant L.C., Brazinova A., Breitborde N.J.K., Brenner H., Briant P.S., Briggs A.M., Briko A.N., Britton G., Brugha T., Buchbinder R., Busse R., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Cano J., Cardenas R., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Carvalho F., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo Rivas J., Castro F., Catala-Lopez F., Cercy K.M., Cerin E., Chaiah Y., Chang A.R., Chang H.-Y., Chang J.-C., Charlson F.J., Chattopadhyay A., Chattu V.K., Chaturvedi P., Chiang P.P.-C., Chin K.L., Chitheer A., Choi J.-Y.J., Chowdhury R., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Cicuttini F.M., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Claro R.M., Collado-Mateo D., Cooper C., Coresh J., Cortesi P.A., Cortinovis M., Costa M., Cousin E., Criqui M.H., Cromwell E.A., Cross M., Crump J.A., Dadi A.F., Dandona L., Dandona R., Dargan P.I., Daryani A., Das Gupta R., Das Neves J., Dasa T.T., Davey G., Davis A.C., Davitoiu D.V., De La Hoz F.P., De Leo D., De Neve J.-W., Degefa M.G., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Dellavalle R.P., Demoz G.T., Deribe K., Dervenis N., Des Jarlais D.C., Dessie G.A., Dey S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dinberu M.T., Dirac M.A., Djalalinia S., Doan L., Dokova K., Doku D.T., Dorsey E.R., Doyle K.E., Driscoll T.R., Dubey M., Dubljanin E., Duken E.E., Duncan B.B., Duraes A.R., Ebrahimi H., Ebrahimpour S., Echko M.M., Edvardsson D., Effiong A., Ehrlich J.R., El Bcheraoui C., El Sayed Zaki M., El-Khatib Z., Elkout H., Elyazar I.R.F., Enayati A., Endries A.Y., Er B., Erskine H.E., Eshrati B., Eskandarieh S., Esteghamati A., Esteghamati S., Fakhim H., Fallah Omrani V., Faramarzi M., Fareed M., Farhadi F., Farid T.A., Farinha C.S.E., Farioli A., Faro A., Farvid M.S., Farzadfar F., Feigin V.L., Fentahun N., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes E., Fernandes J.C., Ferrari A.J., Feyissa G.T., Filip I., Fischer F., Fitzmaurice C., Foigt N.A., Foreman K.J., Frank T.D., Fukumoto T., Fullman N., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Futran N.D., Gall S., Ganji M., Gankpe F.G., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gardner W.M., Gebre A.K., Gebremedhin A.T., Gebremichael T.G., Gelano T.F., Geleijnse J.M., Genova-Maleras R., Geramo Y.C.D., Gething P.W., Gezae K.E., Ghadiri K., Ghasemi Falavarjani K., Ghasemi-Kasman M., Ghimire M., Ghosh R., Ghoshal A.G., Giampaoli S., Gill P.S., Gill T.K., Ginawi I.A., Giussani G., Gnedovskaya E.V., Goldberg E.M., Goli S., Gomez-Dantes H., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Gorman T.M., Goulart A.C., Goulart B.N.G., Grada A., Grams M.E., Grosso G., Gugnani H.C., Guo Y., Gupta P.C., Gupta R., Gupta T., Gyawali B., Haagsma J.A., Hachinski V., Hafezi-Nejad N., Haghparast Bidgoli H., Hagos T.B., Hailu G.B., Haj-Mirzaian A., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Hao Y., Harb H.L., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hasan M., Hassankhani H., Hassen H.Y., Havmoeller R., Hawley C.N., Hay R.J., Hay S.I., Hedayatizadeh-Omran A., Heibati B., Hendrie D., Henok A., Herteliu C., Heydarpour S., Hibstu D.T., Hoang H.T., Hoek H.W., Hoffman H.J., Hole M.K., Homaie Rad E., Hoogar P., Hosgood H.D., Hosseini S.M., Hosseinzadeh M., Hostiuc M., Hostiuc S., Hotez P.J., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Htet A.S., Hu G., Huang J.J., Huynh C.K., Iburg K.M., Ikeda C.T., Ileanu B., Ilesanmi O.S., Iqbal U., Irvani S.S.N., Irvine C.M.S., Islam S., Islami F., Jacobsen K.H., Jahangiry L., Jahanmehr N., Jain S.K., Jakovljevic M., Javanbakht M., Jayatilleke A.U., Jeemon P., Jha R.P., Jha V., Ji J.S., Johnson C.O., Jonas J.B., Jozwiak J.J., Jungari S.B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kalani R., Kanchan T., Karami M., Karami Matin B., Karch A., Karema C., Karimi N., Karimi S.M., Kasaeian A., Kassa D.H., Kassa G.M., Kassa T.D., Kassebaum N.J., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Kazemi Karyani A., Keighobadi M.M., Keiyoro P.N., Kemmer L., Kemp G.R., Kengne A.P., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khafaei B., Khafaie M.A., Khajavi A., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khan M.S., Khan M.A., Khang Y.-H., Khazaei M., Khoja A.T., Khosravi A., Khosravi M.H., Kiadaliri A.A., Kiirithio D.N., Kim C.-I., Kim D., Kim P., Kim Y.-E., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K., Kivimaki M., Knudsen A.K.S., Kocarnik J.M., Kochhar S., Kokubo Y., Kolola T., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Kotsakis G.A., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M.A., Krishan K., Krohn K.J., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kumar G.A., Kumar M., Kyu H.H., Lad D.P., Lad S.D., Lafranconi A., Lalloo R., Lallukka T., Lami F.H., Lansingh V.C., Latifi A., Lau K.M.-M., Lazarus J.V., Leasher J.L., Ledesma J.R., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leung J., Levi M., Lewycka S., Li S., Li Y., Liao Y., Liben M.L., Lim L.-L., Lim S.S., Liu S., Lodha R., Looker K.J., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Low N., Lozano R., Lucas T.C.D., Lucchesi L.R., Lunevicius R., Lyons R.A., Ma S., Macarayan E.R.K., Mackay M.T., Madotto F., Magdy Abd El Razek H., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Maghavani D.P., Mahotra N.B., Mai H.T., Majdan M., 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Sayeed M.S., Bisanzio D., Blacker B.F., Blyth F.M., Bou-Orm I.R., Boufous S., Bourne R., Brady O.J., Brainin M., Brant L.C., Brazinova A., Breitborde N.J.K., Brenner H., Briant P.S., Briggs A.M., Briko A.N., Britton G., Brugha T., Buchbinder R., Busse R., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Cano J., Cardenas R., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Carvalho F., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo Rivas J., Castro F., Catala-Lopez F., Cercy K.M., Cerin E., Chaiah Y., Chang A.R., Chang H.-Y., Chang J.-C., Charlson F.J., Chattopadhyay A., Chattu V.K., Chaturvedi P., Chiang P.P.-C., Chin K.L., Chitheer A., Choi J.-Y.J., Chowdhury R., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Cicuttini F.M., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Claro R.M., Collado-Mateo D., Cooper C., Coresh J., Cortesi P.A., Cortinovis M., Costa M., Cousin E., Criqui M.H., Cromwell E.A., Cross M., Crump J.A., Dadi A.F., Dandona L., Dandona R., Dargan P.I., Daryani A., Das Gupta R., Das Neves J., Dasa T.T., Davey G., Davis A.C., Davitoiu D.V., De La Hoz F.P., De Leo D., De Neve J.-W., Degefa M.G., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Dellavalle R.P., Demoz G.T., Deribe K., Dervenis N., Des Jarlais D.C., Dessie G.A., Dey S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dinberu M.T., Dirac M.A., Djalalinia S., Doan L., Dokova K., Doku D.T., Dorsey E.R., Doyle K.E., Driscoll T.R., Dubey M., Dubljanin E., Duken E.E., Duncan B.B., Duraes A.R., Ebrahimi H., Ebrahimpour S., Echko M.M., Edvardsson D., Effiong A., Ehrlich J.R., El Bcheraoui C., El Sayed Zaki M., El-Khatib Z., Elkout H., Elyazar I.R.F., Enayati A., Endries A.Y., Er B., Erskine H.E., Eshrati B., Eskandarieh S., Esteghamati A., Esteghamati S., Fakhim H., Fallah Omrani V., Faramarzi M., Fareed M., Farhadi F., Farid T.A., Farinha C.S.E., Farioli A., Faro A., Farvid M.S., Farzadfar F., Feigin V.L., Fentahun N., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes E., Fernandes J.C., Ferrari A.J., Feyissa G.T., Filip I., Fischer F., Fitzmaurice C., Foigt N.A., Foreman K.J., Frank T.D., Fukumoto T., Fullman N., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Futran N.D., Gall S., Ganji M., Gankpe F.G., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gardner W.M., Gebre A.K., Gebremedhin A.T., Gebremichael T.G., Gelano T.F., Geleijnse J.M., Genova-Maleras R., Geramo Y.C.D., Gething P.W., Gezae K.E., Ghadiri K., Ghasemi Falavarjani K., Ghasemi-Kasman M., Ghimire M., Ghosh R., Ghoshal A.G., Giampaoli S., Gill P.S., Gill T.K., Ginawi I.A., Giussani G., Gnedovskaya E.V., Goldberg E.M., Goli S., Gomez-Dantes H., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Gorman T.M., Goulart A.C., Goulart B.N.G., Grada A., Grams M.E., Grosso G., Gugnani H.C., Guo Y., Gupta P.C., Gupta R., Gupta T., Gyawali B., Haagsma J.A., Hachinski V., Hafezi-Nejad N., Haghparast Bidgoli H., Hagos T.B., Hailu G.B., Haj-Mirzaian A., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Hao Y., Harb H.L., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hasan M., Hassankhani H., Hassen H.Y., Havmoeller R., Hawley C.N., Hay R.J., Hay S.I., Hedayatizadeh-Omran A., Heibati B., Hendrie D., Henok A., Herteliu C., Heydarpour S., Hibstu D.T., Hoang H.T., Hoek H.W., Hoffman H.J., Hole M.K., Homaie Rad E., Hoogar P., Hosgood H.D., Hosseini S.M., Hosseinzadeh M., Hostiuc M., Hostiuc S., Hotez P.J., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Htet A.S., Hu G., Huang J.J., Huynh C.K., Iburg K.M., Ikeda C.T., Ileanu B., Ilesanmi O.S., Iqbal U., Irvani S.S.N., Irvine C.M.S., Islam S., Islami F., Jacobsen K.H., Jahangiry L., Jahanmehr N., Jain S.K., Jakovljevic M., Javanbakht M., Jayatilleke A.U., Jeemon P., Jha R.P., Jha V., Ji J.S., Johnson C.O., Jonas J.B., Jozwiak J.J., Jungari S.B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kalani R., Kanchan T., Karami M., Karami Matin B., Karch A., Karema C., Karimi N., Karimi S.M., Kasaeian A., Kassa D.H., Kassa G.M., Kassa T.D., Kassebaum N.J., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Kazemi Karyani A., Keighobadi M.M., Keiyoro P.N., Kemmer L., Kemp G.R., Kengne A.P., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khafaei B., Khafaie M.A., Khajavi A., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khan M.S., Khan M.A., Khang Y.-H., Khazaei M., Khoja A.T., Khosravi A., Khosravi M.H., Kiadaliri A.A., Kiirithio D.N., Kim C.-I., Kim D., Kim P., Kim Y.-E., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K., Kivimaki M., Knudsen A.K.S., Kocarnik J.M., Kochhar S., Kokubo Y., Kolola T., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Kotsakis G.A., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M.A., Krishan K., Krohn K.J., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kumar G.A., Kumar M., Kyu H.H., Lad D.P., Lad S.D., Lafranconi A., Lalloo R., Lallukka T., Lami F.H., Lansingh V.C., Latifi A., Lau K.M.-M., Lazarus J.V., Leasher J.L., Ledesma J.R., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leung J., Levi M., Lewycka S., Li S., Li Y., Liao Y., Liben M.L., Lim L.-L., Lim S.S., Liu S., Lodha R., Looker K.J., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Low N., Lozano R., Lucas T.C.D., Lucchesi L.R., Lunevicius R., Lyons R.A., Ma S., Macarayan E.R.K., Mackay M.T., Madotto F., Magdy Abd El Razek H., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Maghavani D.P., Mahotra N.B., Mai H.T., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manda A.-L., Manguerra H., Manhertz T., Mansournia M.A., Mantovani L.G., Mapoma C.C., Maravilla J.C., Marcenes W., Marks A., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Marz W., Marzan M.B., Mashamba-Thompson T.P., Massenburg B.B., Mathur M.R., Matsushita K., Maulik P.K., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGrath J.J., McKee M., Mehndiratta M.M., Mehrotra R., Mehta K.M., Mehta V., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Mekonen T., Melese A., Melku M., Meltzer M., Memiah P.T.N., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengistu D.T., Mengistu G., Mensah G.A., Mereta S.T., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mestrovic T., Mezerji N.M.G., Miazgowski B., Miazgowski T., Millear A.I., Miller T.R., Miltz B., Mini G.K., Mirarefin M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A.T., Mitchell P.B., Mitiku H., Moazen B., Mohajer B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadifard N., Mohammadnia-Afrouzi M., Mohammed M.A., Mohammed S., Mohebi F., Moitra M., Mokdad A.H., Molokhia M., Monasta L., Moodley Y., Moosazadeh M., Moradi G., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moradinazar M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Moreno Velasquez I., Morgado-Da-Costa J., Morrison S.D., Moschos M.M., Mousavi S.M., Mruts K.B., Muche A.A., Muchie K.F., Mueller U.O., Muhammed O.S., Mukhopadhyay S., Muller K., Mumford J.E., Murhekar M., Musa J., Musa K.I., Mustafa G., Nabhan A.F., Nagata C., Naghavi M., Naheed A., Nahvijou A., Naik G., Naik N., Najafi F., Naldi L., Nam H.S., Nangia V., Nansseu J.R., Nascimento B.R., Natarajan G., Neamati N., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Neupane S., Newton C.R.J., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen A.Q., Nguyen H.L.T., Nguyen H.T., Nguyen L.H., Nguyen M., Nguyen N.B., Nguyen S.H., Nichols E., Ningrum D.N.A., Nixon M.R., Nolutshungu N., Nomura S., Norheim O.F., Noroozi M., Norrving B., Noubiap J.J., Nouri H.R., Nourollahpour Shiadeh M., Nowroozi M.R., Nsoesie E.O., Nyasulu P.S., Odell C.M., Ofori-Asenso R., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olagunju T.O., Olivares P.R., Olsen H.E., Olusanya B.O., Ong K.L., Ong S.K., Oren E., Ortiz A., Ota E., Otstavnov S.S., overland S., Owolabi M.O., Mahesh P.A., Pacella R., Pakpour A.H., Pana A., Panda-Jonas S., Parisi A., Park E.-K., Parry C.D.H., Patel S., Pati S., Patil S.T., Patle A., Patton G.C., Paturi V.R., Paulson K.R., Pearce N., Pereira D.M., Perico N., Pesudovs K., Pham H.Q., Phillips M.R., Pigott D.M., Pillay J.D., Piradov M.A., Pirsaheb M., Pishgar F., Plana-Ripoll O., Plass D., Polinder S., Popova S., Postma M.J., Pourshams A., Poustchi H., Prabhakaran D., Prakash S., Prakash V., Purcell C.A., Purwar M.B., Qorbani M., Quistberg D.A., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rafiei A., Rahim F., Rahimi K., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Ur Rahman M.H., Rahman M.A., Rahman S.U., Rai R.K., Rajati F., Ram U., Ranjan P., Ranta A., Rao P.C., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Reddy K.S., Reiner R.C., Reinig N., Reitsma M.B., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Resnikoff S., Rezaei S., Rezai M.S., Ribeiro A.L.P., Robinson S.R., Roever L., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Rostami A., Roth G.A., Roy A., Rubagotti E., Sachdev P.S., Sadat N., Saddik B., Sadeghi E., Saeedi Moghaddam S., Safari H., Safari Y., Safari-Faramani R., Safdarian M., Safi S., Safiri S., Sagar R., Sahebkar A., Sahraian M.A., Sajadi H.S., Salam N., Salama J.S., Salamati P., Saleem K., Saleem Z., Salimi Y., Salomon J.A., Salvi S.S., Salz I., Samy A.M., Sanabria J., Sang Y., Santomauro D.F., Santos I.S., Santos J.V., Santric Milicevic M.M., Sao Jose B.P., Sardana M., Sarker A.R., Sarrafzadegan N., Sartorius B., Sarvi S., Sathian B., Satpathy M., Sawant A.R., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Saylan M., Schaeffner E., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schottker B., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Scott J.G., Sekerija M., Sepanlou S.G., Servan-Mori E., Seyedmousavi S., Shabaninejad H., Shafieesabet A., Shahbazi M., Shaheen A.A., Shaikh M.A., Shams-Beyranvand M., Shamsi M., Shamsizadeh M., Sharafi H., Sharafi K., Sharif M., Sharif-Alhoseini M., Sharma M., Sharma R., Sheikh A., Shi P., Shibuya K., Shigematsu M., Shiri R., Shirkoohi R., Shishani K., Shiue I., Shokraneh F., Shoman H., Shrime M.G., Si S., Siabani S., Siddiqi T.J., Sigfusdottir I.D., Sigurvinsdottir R., Silva J.P., Silveira D.G.A., Singam N.S.V., Singh J.A., Singh N.P., Singh V., Sinha D.N., Skiadaresi E., Slepak E.L.N., Sliwa K., Smith D.L., Smith M., Soares Filho A.M., Sobaih B.H., Sobhani S., Sobngwi E., Soneji S.S., Soofi M., Soosaraei M., Sorensen R.J.D., Soriano J.B., Soyiri I.N., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Stanaway J.D., Stein D.J., Steiner C., Steiner T.J., Stokes M.A., Stovner L.J., Subart M.L., Sudaryanto A., Sufiyan M.B., Sunguya B.F., Sur P.J., Sutradhar I., Sykes B.L., Sylte D.O., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadakamadla S.K., Tadesse B.T., Tandon N., Tassew S.G., Tavakkoli M., Taveira N., Taylor H.R., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Tekalign T.G., Tekelemedhin S.W., Tekle M.G., Temesgen H., Temsah M.-H., Temsah O., Terkawi A.S., and Teweldemedhin M.
- Abstract
Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Method(s): We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we
- Published
- 2018
16. Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.
- Author
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Shetty B.P., Tekle D.Y., Temam Shifa G., Temsah M.-H., Terkawi A.S., Tesema C.L., Tesssema B., Theis A., Thomas N., Thompson A.H., Thomson A.J., Tiruye T.Y., Tobe-Gai R., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Tortajada M., Tran B.X., Truelsen T., Trujillo U., Tsilimparis N., Tuem K.B., Tuzcu E.M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Undurraga E.A., Uthman O.A., Uzochukwu B.S.C., Van Boven J.F.M., Varakin Y.Y., Varughese S., Vasankari T., Vasconcelos A.M.N., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Violante F.S., Vishnu A., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V.V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Waid J.L., Wakayo T., Wang Y.-P., Weichenthal S., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Werdecker A., Wesana J., Wijeratne T., Wilkinson J.D., Wiysonge C.S., Woldeyes B.G., Wolfe C.D.A., Workicho A., Workie S.B., Xavier D., Xu G., Yaghoubi M., Yakob B., Yalew A.Z., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Ye P., Yimam H.H., Yip P., Yirsaw B.D., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Zaidi Z., El Sayed Zaki M., Zeeb H., Zenebe Z.M., Zerfu T.A., Zhang A.L., Zhang X., Zodpey S., Zuhlke L.J., Lopez A.D., Murray C.J.L., De Courten B., Singh A., Thrift A.G., Wang H., Abajobir A.A., Abate K.H., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abera S.F., Abraha H.N., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M.E., Adedeji I.A., Adedoyin R.A., Adetifa I.M.O., Adetokunboh O., Afshin A., Aggarwal R., Agrawal A., Agrawal S., Ahmad Kiadaliri A., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Aiyar S., Akanda A.S., Akinyemiju T.F., Akseer N., Al-Eyadhy A., Al Lami F.H., Alabed S., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alam N., Alasfoor D., Aldridge R.W., Alene K.A., Alhabib S., Ali R., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Aljunid S.M., Alkaabi J.M., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allam S.D., Allebeck P., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Altirkawi K.A., Martin E.A., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Ameh E.A., Amini E., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Anber N., Andrei C.L., Androudi S., Ansari H., Ansha M.G., Antonio C.A.T., Anwari P., Arnlov J., Arora M., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Asayesh H., Asgedom S.W., Asghar R.J., Assadi R., Atey T.M., Atre S.R., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayala Quintanilla B.P., Babalola T.K., Bacha U., Badawi A., Balakrishnan K., Balalla S., Barac A., Barber R.M., Barboza M.A., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T., Barquera S., Barregard L., Barrero L.H., Baune B.T., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Bedi N., Beghi E., Bejot Y., Bekele B.B., Bell M.L., Bello A.K., Bennett D.A., Bennett J.R., Bensenor I.M., Benson J., Berhane A., Berhe D.F., Bernabe E., Beuran M., Beyene A.S., Bhala N., Bhansali A., Bhaumik S., Bhutta Z.A., Bikbov B., Birungi C., Biryukov S., Bisanzio D., Bizuayehu H.M., Bjerregaard P., Blosser C.D., Boneya D.J., Boufous S., Bourne R.R.A., Brazinova A., Breitborde N.J.K., Brenner H., Brugha T.S., Bukhman G., Bulto L.N.B., Bumgarner B.R., Burch M., Butt Z.A., Cahill L.E., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Campos-Nonato I.R., Car J., Car M., Cardenas R., Carpenter D.O., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo Rivas J., Castro F.F., Castro R.E., Catala-Lopez F., Chen H., Chiang P.P.-C., Chibalabala M., Chisumpa V.H., Chitheer A.A., Choi J.-Y.J., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Cohen A.J., Colquhoun S.M., Coresh J., Criqui M.H., Cromwell E.A., Crump J.A., Dandona L., Dandona R., Dargan P.I., Das Neves J., Davey G., Davitoiu D.V., Davletov K., De Leo D., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Dellavalle R.P., Deribe K., Deribew A., Des Jarlais D.C., Dey S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dherani M.K., Diaz-Torne C., Ding E.L., Dixit P., Djalalinia S., Do H.P., Doku D.T., Donnelly C.A., Dos Santos K.P.B., Douwes-Schultz D., Driscoll T.R., Duan L., Dubey M., Duncan B.B., Dwivedi L.K., Ebrahimi H., El Bcheraoui C., Ellingsen C.L., Enayati A., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Eshetie S., Eshrati B., Eskandarieh S., Esteghamati A., Estep K., Fanuel F.B.B., Faro A., Farvid M.S., Farzadfar F., Feigin V.L., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes J.G., Fernandes J.C., Feyissa T.R., Filip I., Fischer F., Foigt N., Foreman K.J., Frank T., Franklin R.C., Fraser M., Friedman J., Frostad J.J., Fullman N., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Futran N.D., Gakidou E., Gambashidze K., Gamkrelidze A., Gankpe F.G., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gebregergs G.B., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebrekidan K.G., Gebremichael M.W., Gelaye A.A., Geleijnse J.M., Gemechu B.L., Gemechu K.S., Genova-Maleras R., Gesesew H.A., Gething P.W., Gibney K.B., Gill P.S., Gillum R.F., Giref A.Z., Girma B.W., Giussani G., Goenka S., Gomez B., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Goulart A.C., Graetz N., Gugnani H.C., Gupta P.C., Gupta R., Gupta T., Gupta V., Haagsma J.A., Hafezi-Nejad N., Haghparast Bidgoli H., Hakuzimana A., Halasa Y.A., Hamadeh R.R., Hambisa M.T., Hamidi S., Hammami M., Hancock J., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Hao Y., Harb H.L., Hareri H.A., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hassanvand M.S., Havmoeller R., Hay R.J., Hay S.I., He F., Heredia-Pi I.B., Herteliu C., Hilawe E.H., Hoek H.W., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hostiuc S., Hotez P.J., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Htet A.S., Hu G., Huang H., Huang J.J., Iburg K.M., Igumbor E.U., Ileanu B.V., Inoue M., Irenso A.A., Irvine C.M.S., Islam N., Jacobsen K.H., Jaenisch T., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M.B., Javanbakht M., Jayatilleke A.U., Jeemon P., Jensen P.N., Jha V., Jin Y., John D., John O., Johnson S.C., Jonas J.B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kalkonde Y., Kamal R., Kan H., Karch A., Karema C.K., Karimi S.M., Karthikeyan G., Kasaeian A., Kassaw N.A., Kassebaum N.J., Kastor A., Katikireddi S.V., Kaul A., Kawakami N., Kazanjan K., Keiyoro P.N., Kelbore S.G., Kemp A.H., Kengne A.P., Keren A., Kereselidze M., Kesavachandran C.N., Ketema E.B., Khader Y.S., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khan G., Khang Y.-H., Khera S., Khoja A.T.A., Khosravi M.H., Kibret G.D., Kieling C., Kim C.-I., Kim D., Kim P., Kim S., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kishawi S., Kissimova-Skarbek K.A., Kissoon N., Kivimaki M., Knudsen A.K., Kokubo Y., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Krohn K.J., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kuipers E.J., Kulikoff X.R., Kulkarni V.S., Kumar G.A., Kumar P., Kumsa F.A., Kutz M., Lachat C., Lagat A.K., Lager A.C.J., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Lambert N., Lan Q., Lansingh V.C., Larson H.J., Larsson A., Laryea D.O., Lavados P.M., Laxmaiah A., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leung J., Leung R., Levi M., Li Y., Liao Y., Liben M.L., Lim S.S., Linn S., Lipshultz S.E., Liu S., Lodha R., Logroscino G., Lorch S.A., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Lozano R., Lunevicius R., Lyons R.A., Ma S., Macarayan E.R.K., Machado I.E., Mackay M.T., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Magis-Rodriguez C., Mahdavi M., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malhotra R., Malta D.C., Mantovani L.G., Manyazewal T., Mapoma C.C., Marczak L.B., Marks G.B., Martinez-Raga J., Martins-Melo F.R., Massano J., Maulik P.K., Mayosi B.M., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGarvey S.T., McGrath J.J., McKee M., Mehata S., Mehndiratta M.M., Mehta K.M., Meier T., Mekonnen T.C., Meles K.G., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengesha M.M., Mengistie M.A., Mengistu D.T., Menon G.R., Menota B.G., Mensah G.A., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mezgebe H.B., Micha R., Mikesell J., Miller T.R., Mills E.J., Minnig S., Mirarefin M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A., Mishra S.R., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadi A., Mohammed K.E., Mohammed S., Mohan M.B.V., Mohanty S.K., Mokdad A.H., Molla Assaye A., Mollenkopf S.K., Molokhia M., Monasta L., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Montico M., Mooney M.D., Moore A.R., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Moreno Velasquez I., Mori R., Morrison S.D., Mruts K.B., Mueller U.O., Mullany E., Muller K., Murthy G.V.S., Murthy S., Musa K.I., Nachega J.B., Nagata C., Nagel G., Naghavi M., Naidoo K.S., Nanda L., Nangia V., Nascimento B.R., Natarajan G., Negoi I., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen G., Nguyen Q.L., Nguyen T.H., Ningrum D.N.A., Nisar M.I., Nomura M., Nong V.M., Norheim O.F., Norrving B., Noubiap J.J.N., Nyakarahuka L., Obermeyer C.M., O'Donnell M.J., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Okoro A., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Oren E., Ortiz A., Osgood-Zimmerman A., Ota E., Owolabi M.O., Oyekale A.S., Mahesh P.A., Pacella R.E., Pakhale S., Pana A., Panda B.K., Panda-Jonas S., Park E.-K., Parsaeian M., Patel T., Patten S.B., Patton G.C., Paudel D., Pereira D.M., Perez-Padilla R., Perez-Ruiz F., Perico N., Pervaiz A., Pesudovs K., Peterson C.B., Petri W.A., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Piel F.B., Pigott D.M., Pishgar F., Plass D., Polinder S., Popova S., Postma M.J., Poulton R.G., Pourmalek F., Prasad N., Purwar M., Qorbani M., Rabiee R.H.S., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Rahman M.H.U., Rahman S.U., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Ram U., Rana S.M., Ranabhat C.L., Rao P.V., Rawaf S., Ray S.E., Rego M.A.S., Rehm J., Reiner R.C., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N.N., Resnikoff S., Rezaei S., Rezai M.S., Ribeiro A.L., Rokni M.B., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Roth G.A., Rothenbacher D., Roy A., Rubagotti E., Ruhago G.M., Saadat S., Sabde Y.D., Sachdev P.S., Sadat N., Safdarian M., Safi S., Safiri S., Sagar R., Sahathevan R., Sahebkar A., Sahraian M.A., Salama J., Salamati P., Salomon J.A., Salvi S.S., Samy A.M., Sanabria J.R., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Santos I.S., Santric Milicevic M.M., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Saylan M.I., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schutte A.E., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Seedat S., Seid A.M., Sepanlou S.G., Servan-Mori E.E., Shackelford K.A., Shaheen A., Shahraz S., Shaikh M.A., Shamsipour M., Shamsizadeh M., Islam S.M.S., Sharma J., Sharma R., She J., Shen J., Shi P., Shibuya K., Shigematsu M., Shiri R., Shiue I., Shrime M.G., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silberberg D.H., Silpakit N., Silva D.A.S., Silva J.P., Silveira D.G.A., Sindi S., Singh J.A., Singh P.K., Singh V., Sinha D.N., Skiadaresi E., Sligar A., Smith D.L., Sobaih B.H.A., Sobngwi E., Soneji S., Soriano J.B., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Stathopoulou V., Steel N., Stein D.J., Steiner C., Stockl H., Stokes M.A., Strong M., Sufiyan M.B., Suliankatchi R.A., Sunguya B.F., Sur P.J., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Szoeke C.E.I., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadakamadla S.K., Tadese F., Tandon N., Tanne D., Tarajia M., Tavakkoli M., Taveira N., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Tekelab T., Shetty B.P., Tekle D.Y., Temam Shifa G., Temsah M.-H., Terkawi A.S., Tesema C.L., Tesssema B., Theis A., Thomas N., Thompson A.H., Thomson A.J., Tiruye T.Y., Tobe-Gai R., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Tortajada M., Tran B.X., Truelsen T., Trujillo U., Tsilimparis N., Tuem K.B., Tuzcu E.M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Undurraga E.A., Uthman O.A., Uzochukwu B.S.C., Van Boven J.F.M., Varakin Y.Y., Varughese S., Vasankari T., Vasconcelos A.M.N., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Violante F.S., Vishnu A., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V.V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Waid J.L., Wakayo T., Wang Y.-P., Weichenthal S., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Werdecker A., Wesana J., Wijeratne T., Wilkinson J.D., Wiysonge C.S., Woldeyes B.G., Wolfe C.D.A., Workicho A., Workie S.B., Xavier D., Xu G., Yaghoubi M., Yakob B., Yalew A.Z., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Ye P., Yimam H.H., Yip P., Yirsaw B.D., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Zaidi Z., El Sayed Zaki M., Zeeb H., Zenebe Z.M., Zerfu T.A., Zhang A.L., Zhang X., Zodpey S., Zuhlke L.J., Lopez A.D., Murray C.J.L., De Courten B., Singh A., Thrift A.G., Wang H., Abajobir A.A., Abate K.H., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abera S.F., Abraha H.N., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M.E., Adedeji I.A., Adedoyin R.A., Adetifa I.M.O., Adetokunboh O., Afshin A., Aggarwal R., Agrawal A., Agrawal S., Ahmad Kiadaliri A., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Aiyar S., Akanda A.S., Akinyemiju T.F., Akseer N., Al-Eyadhy A., Al Lami F.H., Alabed S., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alam N., Alasfoor D., Aldridge R.W., Alene K.A., Alhabib S., Ali R., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Aljunid S.M., Alkaabi J.M., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allam S.D., Allebeck P., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Altirkawi K.A., Martin E.A., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Ameh E.A., Amini E., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Anber N., Andrei C.L., Androudi S., Ansari H., Ansha M.G., Antonio C.A.T., Anwari P., Arnlov J., Arora M., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Asayesh H., Asgedom S.W., Asghar R.J., Assadi R., Atey T.M., Atre S.R., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayala Quintanilla B.P., Babalola T.K., Bacha U., Badawi A., Balakrishnan K., Balalla S., Barac A., Barber R.M., Barboza M.A., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T., Barquera S., Barregard L., Barrero L.H., Baune B.T., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Bedi N., Beghi E., Bejot Y., Bekele B.B., Bell M.L., Bello A.K., Bennett D.A., Bennett J.R., Bensenor I.M., Benson J., Berhane A., Berhe D.F., Bernabe E., Beuran M., Beyene A.S., Bhala N., Bhansali A., Bhaumik S., Bhutta Z.A., Bikbov B., Birungi C., Biryukov S., Bisanzio D., Bizuayehu H.M., Bjerregaard P., Blosser C.D., Boneya D.J., Boufous S., Bourne R.R.A., Brazinova A., Breitborde N.J.K., Brenner H., Brugha T.S., Bukhman G., Bulto L.N.B., Bumgarner B.R., Burch M., Butt Z.A., Cahill L.E., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Campos-Nonato I.R., Car J., Car M., Cardenas R., Carpenter D.O., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo Rivas J., Castro F.F., Castro R.E., Catala-Lopez F., Chen H., Chiang P.P.-C., Chibalabala M., Chisumpa V.H., Chitheer A.A., Choi J.-Y.J., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Cohen A.J., Colquhoun S.M., Coresh J., Criqui M.H., Cromwell E.A., Crump J.A., Dandona L., Dandona R., Dargan P.I., Das Neves J., Davey G., Davitoiu D.V., Davletov K., De Leo D., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Dellavalle R.P., Deribe K., Deribew A., Des Jarlais D.C., Dey S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dherani M.K., Diaz-Torne C., Ding E.L., Dixit P., Djalalinia S., Do H.P., Doku D.T., Donnelly C.A., Dos Santos K.P.B., Douwes-Schultz D., Driscoll T.R., Duan L., Dubey M., Duncan B.B., Dwivedi L.K., Ebrahimi H., El Bcheraoui C., Ellingsen C.L., Enayati A., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Eshetie S., Eshrati B., Eskandarieh S., Esteghamati A., Estep K., Fanuel F.B.B., Faro A., Farvid M.S., Farzadfar F., Feigin V.L., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes J.G., Fernandes J.C., Feyissa T.R., Filip I., Fischer F., Foigt N., Foreman K.J., Frank T., Franklin R.C., Fraser M., Friedman J., Frostad J.J., Fullman N., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Futran N.D., Gakidou E., Gambashidze K., Gamkrelidze A., Gankpe F.G., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gebregergs G.B., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebrekidan K.G., Gebremichael M.W., Gelaye A.A., Geleijnse J.M., Gemechu B.L., Gemechu K.S., Genova-Maleras R., Gesesew H.A., Gething P.W., Gibney K.B., Gill P.S., Gillum R.F., Giref A.Z., Girma B.W., Giussani G., Goenka S., Gomez B., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Goulart A.C., Graetz N., Gugnani H.C., Gupta P.C., Gupta R., Gupta T., Gupta V., Haagsma J.A., Hafezi-Nejad N., Haghparast Bidgoli H., Hakuzimana A., Halasa Y.A., Hamadeh R.R., Hambisa M.T., Hamidi S., Hammami M., Hancock J., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Hao Y., Harb H.L., Hareri H.A., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hassanvand M.S., Havmoeller R., Hay R.J., Hay S.I., He F., Heredia-Pi I.B., Herteliu C., Hilawe E.H., Hoek H.W., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hostiuc S., Hotez P.J., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Htet A.S., Hu G., Huang H., Huang J.J., Iburg K.M., Igumbor E.U., Ileanu B.V., Inoue M., Irenso A.A., Irvine C.M.S., Islam N., Jacobsen K.H., Jaenisch T., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M.B., Javanbakht M., Jayatilleke A.U., Jeemon P., Jensen P.N., Jha V., Jin Y., John D., John O., Johnson S.C., Jonas J.B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kalkonde Y., Kamal R., Kan H., Karch A., Karema C.K., Karimi S.M., Karthikeyan G., Kasaeian A., Kassaw N.A., Kassebaum N.J., Kastor A., Katikireddi S.V., Kaul A., Kawakami N., Kazanjan K., Keiyoro P.N., Kelbore S.G., Kemp A.H., Kengne A.P., Keren A., Kereselidze M., Kesavachandran C.N., Ketema E.B., Khader Y.S., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khan G., Khang Y.-H., Khera S., Khoja A.T.A., Khosravi M.H., Kibret G.D., Kieling C., Kim C.-I., Kim D., Kim P., Kim S., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kishawi S., Kissimova-Skarbek K.A., Kissoon N., Kivimaki M., Knudsen A.K., Kokubo Y., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Krohn K.J., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kuipers E.J., Kulikoff X.R., Kulkarni V.S., Kumar G.A., Kumar P., Kumsa F.A., Kutz M., Lachat C., Lagat A.K., Lager A.C.J., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Lambert N., Lan Q., Lansingh V.C., Larson H.J., Larsson A., Laryea D.O., Lavados P.M., Laxmaiah A., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leung J., Leung R., Levi M., Li Y., Liao Y., Liben M.L., Lim S.S., Linn S., Lipshultz S.E., Liu S., Lodha R., Logroscino G., Lorch S.A., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Lozano R., Lunevicius R., Lyons R.A., Ma S., Macarayan E.R.K., Machado I.E., Mackay M.T., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Magis-Rodriguez C., Mahdavi M., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malhotra R., Malta D.C., Mantovani L.G., Manyazewal T., Mapoma C.C., Marczak L.B., Marks G.B., Martinez-Raga J., Martins-Melo F.R., Massano J., Maulik P.K., Mayosi B.M., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGarvey S.T., McGrath J.J., McKee M., Mehata S., Mehndiratta M.M., Mehta K.M., Meier T., Mekonnen T.C., Meles K.G., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengesha M.M., Mengistie M.A., Mengistu D.T., Menon G.R., Menota B.G., Mensah G.A., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mezgebe H.B., Micha R., Mikesell J., Miller T.R., Mills E.J., Minnig S., Mirarefin M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A., Mishra S.R., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadi A., Mohammed K.E., Mohammed S., Mohan M.B.V., Mohanty S.K., Mokdad A.H., Molla Assaye A., Mollenkopf S.K., Molokhia M., Monasta L., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Montico M., Mooney M.D., Moore A.R., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Moreno Velasquez I., Mori R., Morrison S.D., Mruts K.B., Mueller U.O., Mullany E., Muller K., Murthy G.V.S., Murthy S., Musa K.I., Nachega J.B., Nagata C., Nagel G., Naghavi M., Naidoo K.S., Nanda L., Nangia V., Nascimento B.R., Natarajan G., Negoi I., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen G., Nguyen Q.L., Nguyen T.H., Ningrum D.N.A., Nisar M.I., Nomura M., Nong V.M., Norheim O.F., Norrving B., Noubiap J.J.N., Nyakarahuka L., Obermeyer C.M., O'Donnell M.J., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Okoro A., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Oren E., Ortiz A., Osgood-Zimmerman A., Ota E., Owolabi M.O., Oyekale A.S., Mahesh P.A., Pacella R.E., Pakhale S., Pana A., Panda B.K., Panda-Jonas S., Park E.-K., Parsaeian M., Patel T., Patten S.B., Patton G.C., Paudel D., Pereira D.M., Perez-Padilla R., Perez-Ruiz F., Perico N., Pervaiz A., Pesudovs K., Peterson C.B., Petri W.A., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Piel F.B., Pigott D.M., Pishgar F., Plass D., Polinder S., Popova S., Postma M.J., Poulton R.G., Pourmalek F., Prasad N., Purwar M., Qorbani M., Rabiee R.H.S., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Rahman M.H.U., Rahman S.U., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Ram U., Rana S.M., Ranabhat C.L., Rao P.V., Rawaf S., Ray S.E., Rego M.A.S., Rehm J., Reiner R.C., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N.N., Resnikoff S., Rezaei S., Rezai M.S., Ribeiro A.L., Rokni M.B., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Roth G.A., Rothenbacher D., Roy A., Rubagotti E., Ruhago G.M., Saadat S., Sabde Y.D., Sachdev P.S., Sadat N., Safdarian M., Safi S., Safiri S., Sagar R., Sahathevan R., Sahebkar A., Sahraian M.A., Salama J., Salamati P., Salomon J.A., Salvi S.S., Samy A.M., Sanabria J.R., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Santos I.S., Santric Milicevic M.M., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Saylan M.I., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schutte A.E., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Seedat S., Seid A.M., Sepanlou S.G., Servan-Mori E.E., Shackelford K.A., Shaheen A., Shahraz S., Shaikh M.A., Shamsipour M., Shamsizadeh M., Islam S.M.S., Sharma J., Sharma R., She J., Shen J., Shi P., Shibuya K., Shigematsu M., Shiri R., Shiue I., Shrime M.G., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silberberg D.H., Silpakit N., Silva D.A.S., Silva J.P., Silveira D.G.A., Sindi S., Singh J.A., Singh P.K., Singh V., Sinha D.N., Skiadaresi E., Sligar A., Smith D.L., Sobaih B.H.A., Sobngwi E., Soneji S., Soriano J.B., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Stathopoulou V., Steel N., Stein D.J., Steiner C., Stockl H., Stokes M.A., Strong M., Sufiyan M.B., Suliankatchi R.A., Sunguya B.F., Sur P.J., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Szoeke C.E.I., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadakamadla S.K., Tadese F., Tandon N., Tanne D., Tarajia M., Tavakkoli M., Taveira N., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., and Tekelab T.
- Abstract
Background: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. Method(s): We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, t
- Published
- 2017
17. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.
- Author
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Kaul A., Bhutta Z.A., Hailu G.B., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Hammami M., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Hao Y., Harb H.L., Hareri H.A., Haro J.M., Harun K.M., Harvey J., Hassanvand M.S., Havmoeller R., Hay R.J., Hedayati M.T., Hendrie D., Henry N.J., Heredia-Pi I.B., Heydarpour P., Hoek H.W., Hofman H.J., Horino M., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hostiuc S., Hotez P.J., Hoy D.G., Htet A.S., Hu G., Huang J.J., Huynh C., Iburg K.M., Igumbor E.U., Ikeda C., Irvine C.M.S., Jacobsen K.H., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M.B., James P., Jassal S.K., Javanbakht M., Jayaraman S.P., Jeemon P., Jensen P.N., Jha V., Jiang G., John D., Johnson C.O., Johnson S.C., Jonas J.B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kamal R., Kar C., Karam N.E., Karch A., Karema C.K., Karimi S.M., Karimkhani C., Kasaeian A., Kassa G.M., Kassebaum N.J., Kassaw N.A., Kastor A., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Keiyoro P.N., Kemmer L., Kengne A.P., Keren A., Kesavachandran C.N., Khader Y.S., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khang Y.-H., Khoja A.T., Khosravi A., Khubchandani J., Kieling C., Kim Y.J., Kim D., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K.A., Kissoon N., Kivimaki M., Knudsen A.K., Kokubo Y., Kolte D., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Kotsakis G.A., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Krohn K.J., Defo B.K., Bicer B.K., Kumar G.A., Kumar P., Kyu H.H., Lager A.C.J., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Lallukka T., Lambert N., Lan Q., Lansingh V.C., Larsson A., Leasher J.L., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leshargie C.T., Leung J., Leung R., Levi M., Li Y., Liang X., Liben M.L., Lim S.S., Linn S., Liu A., Liu P.Y., Liu S., Liu Y., Lodha R., Logroscino G., Looker K.J., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Lozano R., Lucas T.C.D., Lunevicius R., Lyons R.A., Macarayan E.R.K., Maddison E.R., Magdy Abd El Razek H., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Magis-Rodriguez C., Mahdavi M., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malhotra R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manguerra H., Manhertz T., Mantovani L.G., Mapoma C.C., March L.M., Marczak L.B., Martinez-Raga J., Martins P.H.V., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Marz W., Mathur M.R., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGaughey M., McGrath J.J., McKee M., Mehata S., Meier T., Meles K.G., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengesha M.M., Mengistie M.A., Mengistu D.T., Mensah G.A., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mezgebe H.B., Micha R., Millear A., Miller T.R., Minnig S., Mirarefn M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A., Mishra S.R., Mitchell P.B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadi A., Mohammed S., Mohammed K.E., Mohammed M.S.K., Mohan M.B.V., Mokdad A.H., Mollenkopf S.K., Monasta L., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Montico M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Mori R., Morrison S.D., Moses M., Mountjoy-Venning C., Mruts K.B., Mueller U.O., Muller K., Mudoch M.E., Murthy S., Murthy G.V.S., Musa K.I., Nachega J.B., Nagel G., Naghavi M., Naheed A., Naidoo K.S., Nangia V., Nasher J.T., Natarajan G., Negasa D.E., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Newton C.R., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen Q.L., Nguyen G., Nguyen T.H., Nguyen M., Nichols E., Ningrum D.N.A., Nong V.M., Norheim O.F., Norrving B., Noubiap J.J.N., Nyandwi A., Obermeyer C.M., O'Donnell M.J., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Okoro A., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olagunju T.O., Olsen H.E., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Ong K., Opio J.N., Oren E., Ortiz A., Osborne R.H., Osgood-Zimmerman A., Osman M., Ota E., Owolabi M.O., Pa M., Pacella R.E., Panda B.K., Pandian J.D., Papachristou C., Park E.-K., Parry C.D., Parsaeian M., Patil S.T., Patten S.B., Patton G.C., Paudel D., Paulson K., Pearce N., Pereira D.M., Perez K.M., Perico N., Pesudovs K., Peterson C.B., Petri W.A., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Phipps G., Pigott D.M., Pillay J.D., Pinho C., Piradov M.A., Plass D., Pletcher M.A., Popova S., Poulton R.G., Pourmalek F., Prabhakaran D., Prasad N., Purcell C., Purwar M., Qorbani M., Rabiee R.H.S., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rahimi K., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Rahman M.A., Rahman M.H.U., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Ram U., Ranabhat C.L., Rangaswamy T., Rankin Z., Rao P.V., Rao P.C., Rawaf S., Ray S.E., Reiner R.C., Reinig N., Reitsma M., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Resnikof S., Rezaei S., Ribeiro A.L., Roba H.S., Robinson S.R., Rojas-Rueda D., Rokni M.B., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Roth G.A., Rothenbacher D., Roy A., Rubagotti E., Ruhago G.M., Saadat S., Safdarian M., Safri S., Sagar R., Sahathevan R., Sahraian M.A., Salama J., Saleh M.M., Salomon J.A., Salvi S.S., Samy A.M., Sanabria J.R., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Santomauro D., Santos J.V., Santos I.S., Santric Milicevic M.M., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Schelonka K., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schottker B., Schutte A.E., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Seedat S., Sepanlou S.G., Servan-Mori E.E., Shaheen A., Shaikh M.A., Shamsipour M., Shariful Islam S.M., Sharma R., Sharma J., She J., Shi P., Shibuya K., Shields C., Shiferaw M.S., Shigematsu M., Shiri R., Shirkoohi R., Shirude S., Shishani K., Shoman H., Siabani S., Sibai A.M., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silberberg D.H., Silva J.P., Silva D.A.S., Silveira D.G.A., Singh J.A., Singh V., Singh O.P., Singh N.P., Sinha D.N., Skiadaresi E., Skirbekk V., Slepak E.L., Smith D.L., Smith M., Sobaih B.H.A., Sobngwi E., Soljak M., Sorensen R.J.D., Sousa T.C.M., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Stanaway J.D., Stathopoulou V., Steel N., Stein D.J., Steiner C., Steinke S., Stokes M.A., Stovner L.J., Strub B., Subart M., Sufyan M.B., Abdulkader R.S., Sunguya B.F., Sur P.J., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Sylte D., Szoeke C.E.I., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadakamadla S.K., Tafere G.R., Takala J.S., Tandon N., Tanne D., Tarekegn Y.L., Tavakkoli M., Taveira N., Taylor H.R., Tegegne T.K., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Tekelab T., Temam Shifa G., Terkawi A.S., Tesfaye D.J., Tesssema B., Thakur J.S., Thamsuwan O., Theadom A.M., Theis A.M., Thomas K.E., Thomas N., Thompson R., Tobe-Gai R., Tobollik M., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Tortajada M., Touvier M., Traebert J., Tran B.X., Troeger C., Truelsen T., 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S.I., Abajobir A.A., Abate K.H., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abdulle A.M., Abebo T.A., Abera S.F., Aboyans V., Abu-Raddad L.J., Ackerman I.N., Adedeji I.A., Adetokunboh O., Afshin A., Aggarwal R., Agrawal S., Agrawal A., Kiadaliri A.A., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Aiyar S., Akinyemiju T.F., Akseer N., Al Lami F.H., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alam N., Alam T., Alasfoor D., Alene K.A., Ali R., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Alkaabi J.M., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Allen C., Al-Maskari F., Almazroa M.A., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Alsowaidi S., Althouse B.M., Altirkawi K.A., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Amini E., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Ansha M.G., Antonio C.A.T., Anwari P., Arnlov J., Arora M., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Asgedom S.W., Atey T.M., Atnafu N.T., Avila-Burgos L., Arthur Avokpaho E.F.G., Awasthi A., Awasthi S., Quintanilla B.P.A., Azarpazhooh M.R., Azzopardi P., Babalola T.K., Bacha U., Badawi A., Balakrishnan K., Bannick M.S., Barac A., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T., Barquera S., Barrero L.H., Basu S., Battista R., Battle K.E., Baune B.T., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Beardsley J., Bedi N., Bejot Y., Bekele B.B., Bell M.L., Bennett D.A., Bennett J.R., Bensenor I.M., Benson J., Berhane A., Berhe D.F., Bernabe E., Betsu B.D., Beuran M., Beyene A.S., Bhansali A., Bhatt S., Bienhof K., Bikbov B., Birungi C., Biryukov S., Bisanzio D., Bizuayehu H.M., Blyth F.M., Boneya D.J., Bose D., Bou-Orm I.R., Bourne R.R.A., Brainin M., Brayne C.E.G., Brazinova A., Breitborde N.J.K., Briant P.S., Britton G., Brugha T.S., Buchbinder R., Bulto L.N.B., Bumgarner B., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Cameron E., Campos-Nonato I.R., Carabin H., Cardenas R., Carpenter D.O., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Carvalho F., Casey D., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Rivas J.C., Castle C.D., Catala-Lopez F., Chang J.-C., Charlson F.J., Chaturvedi P., Chen H., Chibalabala M., Chibueze C.E., Chisumpa V.H., Chitheer A.A., Chowdhury R., Christopher D.J., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Colombara D., Cooper L.T., Cooper C., Cortesi P.A., Cortinovis M., Criqui M.H., Cromwell E.A., Cross M., Crump J.A., Dadi A.F., Dalal K., Damasceno A., Dandona L., Dandona R., Das Neves J., Davitoiu D.V., Davletov K., De Leo D., De Steur H., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Dellavalle R.P., Deribe K., Deribew A., Das Jarlais D.C., Dey S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhillon P.K., Dicker D., Djalalinia S., Do H.P., Dokova K., Doku D.T., Dorsey E.R., Dos Santos K.P.B., Driscoll T.R., Dubey M., Duncan B.B., Ebel B.E., Echko M., El-Khatib Z.Z., Enayati A., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Erskine H.E., Eshetie S., Eshrati B., Esteghamati A., Estep K., Fanuel F.B.B., Farag T., Farinha C.S.E.S., Faro A., Farzadfar F., Fazeli M.S., Feigin V.L., Feigl A.B., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes J.C., Ferrari A.J., Feyissa T.R., Filip I., Fischer F., Fitzmaurice C., Flaxman A.D., Foigt N., Foreman K.J., Franklin R.C., Frostad J.J., Fullman N., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Futran N.D., Gakidou E., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gebre T., Gebregergs G.B., Gebrehiwot T.T., Geleijnse J.M., Geleto A., Gemechu B.L., Gesesew H.A., Gething P.W., Ghajar A., Gibney K.B., Gillum R.F., Ginawi I.A.M., Gishu M.D., Giussani G., Godwin W.W., Goel K., Goenka S., Goldberg E.M., Gona P.N., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Gosselin R.A., Gotay C.C., Goto A., Goulart A.C., Graetz N., Gugnani H.C., Gupta P.C., Gupta T., Gupta V., Gupta R., Gutierrez R.A., Hachinski V., Hafezi-Nejad N., Hailu A.D., Kaul A., Bhutta Z.A., Hailu G.B., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Hammami M., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Hao Y., Harb H.L., Hareri H.A., Haro J.M., Harun K.M., Harvey J., Hassanvand M.S., Havmoeller R., Hay R.J., Hedayati M.T., Hendrie D., Henry N.J., Heredia-Pi I.B., Heydarpour P., Hoek H.W., Hofman H.J., Horino M., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hostiuc S., Hotez P.J., Hoy D.G., Htet A.S., Hu G., Huang J.J., Huynh C., Iburg K.M., Igumbor E.U., Ikeda C., Irvine C.M.S., Jacobsen K.H., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M.B., James P., Jassal S.K., Javanbakht M., Jayaraman S.P., Jeemon P., Jensen P.N., Jha V., Jiang G., John D., Johnson C.O., Johnson S.C., Jonas J.B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kamal R., Kar C., Karam N.E., Karch A., Karema C.K., Karimi S.M., Karimkhani C., Kasaeian A., Kassa G.M., Kassebaum N.J., Kassaw N.A., Kastor A., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Keiyoro P.N., Kemmer L., Kengne A.P., Keren A., Kesavachandran C.N., Khader Y.S., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khang Y.-H., Khoja A.T., Khosravi A., Khubchandani J., Kieling C., Kim Y.J., Kim D., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K.A., Kissoon N., Kivimaki M., Knudsen A.K., Kokubo Y., Kolte D., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Kotsakis G.A., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Krohn K.J., Defo B.K., Bicer B.K., Kumar G.A., Kumar P., Kyu H.H., Lager A.C.J., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Lallukka T., Lambert N., Lan Q., Lansingh V.C., Larsson A., Leasher J.L., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leshargie C.T., Leung J., Leung R., Levi M., Li Y., Liang X., Liben M.L., Lim S.S., Linn S., Liu A., Liu P.Y., Liu S., Liu Y., Lodha R., Logroscino G., Looker K.J., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Lozano R., Lucas T.C.D., Lunevicius R., Lyons R.A., Macarayan E.R.K., Maddison E.R., Magdy Abd El Razek H., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Magis-Rodriguez C., Mahdavi M., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malhotra R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manguerra H., Manhertz T., Mantovani L.G., Mapoma C.C., March L.M., Marczak L.B., Martinez-Raga J., Martins P.H.V., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Marz W., Mathur M.R., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGaughey M., McGrath J.J., McKee M., Mehata S., Meier T., Meles K.G., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengesha M.M., Mengistie M.A., Mengistu D.T., Mensah G.A., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mezgebe H.B., Micha R., Millear A., Miller T.R., Minnig S., Mirarefn M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A., Mishra S.R., Mitchell P.B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadi A., Mohammed S., Mohammed K.E., Mohammed M.S.K., Mohan M.B.V., Mokdad A.H., Mollenkopf S.K., Monasta L., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Montico M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Mori R., Morrison S.D., Moses M., Mountjoy-Venning C., Mruts K.B., Mueller U.O., Muller K., Mudoch M.E., Murthy S., Murthy G.V.S., Musa K.I., Nachega J.B., Nagel G., Naghavi M., Naheed A., Naidoo K.S., Nangia V., Nasher J.T., Natarajan G., Negasa D.E., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Newton C.R., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen Q.L., Nguyen G., Nguyen T.H., Nguyen M., Nichols E., Ningrum D.N.A., Nong V.M., Norheim O.F., Norrving B., Noubiap J.J.N., Nyandwi A., Obermeyer C.M., O'Donnell M.J., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Okoro A., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olagunju T.O., Olsen H.E., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Ong K., Opio J.N., Oren E., Ortiz A., Osborne R.H., Osgood-Zimmerman A., Osman M., Ota E., Owolabi M.O., Pa M., Pacella R.E., Panda B.K., Pandian J.D., Papachristou C., Park E.-K., Parry C.D., Parsaeian M., Patil S.T., Patten S.B., Patton G.C., Paudel D., Paulson K., Pearce N., Pereira D.M., Perez K.M., Perico N., Pesudovs K., Peterson C.B., Petri W.A., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Phipps G., Pigott D.M., Pillay J.D., Pinho C., Piradov M.A., Plass D., Pletcher M.A., Popova S., Poulton R.G., Pourmalek F., Prabhakaran D., Prasad N., Purcell C., Purwar M., Qorbani M., Rabiee R.H.S., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rahimi K., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Rahman M.A., Rahman M.H.U., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Ram U., Ranabhat C.L., Rangaswamy T., Rankin Z., Rao P.V., Rao P.C., Rawaf S., Ray S.E., Reiner R.C., Reinig N., Reitsma M., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Resnikof S., Rezaei S., Ribeiro A.L., Roba H.S., Robinson S.R., Rojas-Rueda D., Rokni M.B., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Roth G.A., Rothenbacher D., Roy A., Rubagotti E., Ruhago G.M., Saadat S., Safdarian M., Safri S., Sagar R., Sahathevan R., Sahraian M.A., Salama J., Saleh M.M., Salomon J.A., Salvi S.S., Samy A.M., Sanabria J.R., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Santomauro D., Santos J.V., Santos I.S., Santric Milicevic M.M., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Schelonka K., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schottker B., Schutte A.E., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Seedat S., Sepanlou S.G., Servan-Mori E.E., Shaheen A., Shaikh M.A., Shamsipour M., Shariful Islam S.M., Sharma R., Sharma J., She J., Shi P., Shibuya K., Shields C., Shiferaw M.S., Shigematsu M., Shiri R., Shirkoohi R., Shirude S., Shishani K., Shoman H., Siabani S., Sibai A.M., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silberberg D.H., Silva J.P., Silva D.A.S., Silveira D.G.A., Singh J.A., Singh V., Singh O.P., Singh N.P., Sinha D.N., Skiadaresi E., Skirbekk V., Slepak E.L., Smith D.L., Smith M., Sobaih B.H.A., Sobngwi E., Soljak M., Sorensen R.J.D., Sousa T.C.M., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Stanaway J.D., Stathopoulou V., Steel N., Stein D.J., Steiner C., Steinke S., Stokes M.A., Stovner L.J., Strub B., Subart M., Sufyan M.B., Abdulkader R.S., Sunguya B.F., Sur P.J., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Sylte D., Szoeke C.E.I., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadakamadla S.K., Tafere G.R., Takala J.S., Tandon N., Tanne D., Tarekegn Y.L., Tavakkoli M., Taveira N., Taylor H.R., Tegegne T.K., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Tekelab T., Temam Shifa G., Terkawi A.S., Tesfaye D.J., Tesssema B., Thakur J.S., Thamsuwan O., Theadom A.M., Theis A.M., Thomas K.E., Thomas N., Thompson R., Tobe-Gai R., Tobollik M., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Tortajada M., Touvier M., Traebert J., Tran B.X., Troeger C., Truelsen T., Tsoi D., Tuzcu E.M., Tymeson H., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Undurraga E.A., Uneke C.J., Updike R., Uthman O.A., Uzochukwu B.S.C., Van Boven J.F.M., Varughese S., Vasankari T., Veerman L.J., Venkatesh S., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Vijayakumar L., Violante F.S., Vishnu A., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V.V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Wadilo F., Wakayo T., Wallin M.T., Wang Y.-P., Weichenthal S., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss D.J., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Wijeratne T., Williams H.C., Wiysonge C.S., Woldeyes B.G., Wolfe C.D.A., Woodbrook R., Woolf A.D., Workicho A., Xavier D., Xu G., Yadgir S., Yaghoubi M., Yakob B., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Ye P., Yihdego M.G., Yimam H.H., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Yu C., Zaidi Z., Zaki M.E.S., Zegeye E.A., Zenebe Z.M., Zhang X., Zheng Y., Zhou M., Zipkin B., Zodpey S., Zoeckler L., Zuhlke L.J., Murray C.J.L., Adedji I.A., Murdoch M.E., Bryane C.E.G., De Courten B., Thrift A.G., Biadgilign S., Hay S.I., Abajobir A.A., Abate K.H., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abdulle A.M., Abebo T.A., Abera S.F., Aboyans V., Abu-Raddad L.J., Ackerman I.N., Adedeji I.A., Adetokunboh O., Afshin A., Aggarwal R., Agrawal S., Agrawal A., Kiadaliri A.A., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Aiyar S., Akinyemiju T.F., Akseer N., Al Lami F.H., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alam N., Alam T., Alasfoor D., Alene K.A., Ali R., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Alkaabi J.M., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Allen C., Al-Maskari F., Almazroa M.A., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Alsowaidi S., Althouse B.M., Altirkawi K.A., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Amini E., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Ansha M.G., Antonio C.A.T., Anwari P., Arnlov J., Arora M., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Asgedom S.W., Atey T.M., Atnafu N.T., Avila-Burgos L., Arthur Avokpaho E.F.G., Awasthi A., Awasthi S., Quintanilla B.P.A., Azarpazhooh M.R., Azzopardi P., Babalola T.K., Bacha U., Badawi A., Balakrishnan K., Bannick M.S., Barac A., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T., Barquera S., Barrero L.H., Basu S., Battista R., Battle K.E., Baune B.T., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Beardsley J., Bedi N., Bejot Y., Bekele B.B., Bell M.L., Bennett D.A., Bennett J.R., Bensenor I.M., Benson J., Berhane A., Berhe D.F., Bernabe E., Betsu B.D., Beuran M., Beyene A.S., Bhansali A., Bhatt S., Bienhof K., Bikbov B., Birungi C., Biryukov S., Bisanzio D., Bizuayehu H.M., Blyth F.M., Boneya D.J., Bose D., Bou-Orm I.R., Bourne R.R.A., Brainin M., Brayne C.E.G., Brazinova A., Breitborde N.J.K., Briant P.S., Britton G., Brugha T.S., Buchbinder R., Bulto L.N.B., Bumgarner B., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Cameron E., Campos-Nonato I.R., Carabin H., Cardenas R., Carpenter D.O., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Carvalho F., Casey D., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Rivas J.C., Castle C.D., Catala-Lopez F., Chang J.-C., Charlson F.J., Chaturvedi P., Chen H., Chibalabala M., Chibueze C.E., Chisumpa V.H., Chitheer A.A., Chowdhury R., Christopher D.J., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Colombara D., Cooper L.T., Cooper C., Cortesi P.A., Cortinovis M., Criqui M.H., Cromwell E.A., Cross M., Crump J.A., Dadi A.F., Dalal K., Damasceno A., Dandona L., Dandona R., Das Neves J., Davitoiu D.V., Davletov K., De Leo D., De Steur H., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Dellavalle R.P., Deribe K., Deribew A., Das Jarlais D.C., Dey S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhillon P.K., Dicker D., Djalalinia S., Do H.P., Dokova K., Doku D.T., Dorsey E.R., Dos Santos K.P.B., Driscoll T.R., Dubey M., Duncan B.B., Ebel B.E., Echko M., El-Khatib Z.Z., Enayati A., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Erskine H.E., Eshetie S., Eshrati B., Esteghamati A., Estep K., Fanuel F.B.B., Farag T., Farinha C.S.E.S., Faro A., Farzadfar F., Fazeli M.S., Feigin V.L., Feigl A.B., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes J.C., Ferrari A.J., Feyissa T.R., Filip I., Fischer F., Fitzmaurice C., Flaxman A.D., Foigt N., Foreman K.J., Franklin R.C., Frostad J.J., Fullman N., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Futran N.D., Gakidou E., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gebre T., Gebregergs G.B., Gebrehiwot T.T., Geleijnse J.M., Geleto A., Gemechu B.L., Gesesew H.A., Gething P.W., Ghajar A., Gibney K.B., Gillum R.F., Ginawi I.A.M., Gishu M.D., Giussani G., Godwin W.W., Goel K., Goenka S., Goldberg E.M., Gona P.N., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Gosselin R.A., Gotay C.C., Goto A., Goulart A.C., Graetz N., Gugnani H.C., Gupta P.C., Gupta T., Gupta V., Gupta R., Gutierrez R.A., Hachinski V., Hafezi-Nejad N., and Hailu A.D.
- Abstract
Background: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Method(s): We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE difered from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. Finding(s): The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75.2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71.9-78.6) for females and 72.0 years (68.8-75.1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45.6 years [42.0-49.5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41.5 years [39.0-44.0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6.24 years (5.97-6.48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6.04 years (5.74-6.27) for males and 6.49 years (6.08-6.77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1.78 years (1.61-1.93) for m
- Published
- 2017
18. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. []
- Author
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Larsson A., Arnlov J., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Asayesh H., Asgedom S.W., Assadi R., Atey T.M., Atnafu N.T., Atre S.R., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayala Quintanilla B.P., Ba Saleem H.O., Bacha U., Badawi A., Balakrishnan K., Banerjee A., Bannick M.S., Barac A., Barber R.M., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T., Barquera S., Barregard L., Barrero L.H., Basu S., Battista B., Battle K.E., Baune B.T., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Beardsley J., Bedi N., Beghi E., Bejot Y., Bekele B.B., Bell M.L., Bennett D.A., Bensenor I.M., Benson J., Berhane A., Berhe D.F., Bernabe E., Betsu B.D., Beuran M., Beyene A.S., Bhala N., Bhansali A., Bhatt S., Bhutta Z.A., Biadgilign S., Bienhoff K., Bikbov B., Birungi C., Biryukov S., Bisanzio D., Bizuayehu H.M., Boneya D.J., Boufous S., Bourne R.R.A., Brazinova A., Brugha T.S., Buchbinder R., Bulto L.N.B., Bumgarner B.R., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Cameron E., Car M., Carabin H., Carapetis J.R., Cardenas R., Carpenter D.O., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Carvalho F., Casey D.C., Caso V., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castle C.D., Catala-Lopez F., Chang H.-Y., Chang J.-C., Charlson F.J., Chen H., Chibalabala M., Chibueze C.E., Chisumpa V.H., Chitheer A.A., Christopher D.J., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Colombara D., Cooper C., Cortesi P.A., Criqui M.H., Crump J.A., Dadi A.F., Dalal K., Dandona L., Dandona R., Das Neves J., Davitoiu D.V., De Leo D., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Dellavalle R.P., Deribe K., Des Jarlais D.C., Dey S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhillon P.K., Dicker D., Ding E.L., Djalalinia S., Do H.P., Dorsey E.R., Dos Santos K.P.B., Douwes-Schultz D., Doyle K.E., Driscoll T.R., Dubey M., Duncan B.B., El-Khatib Z.Z., Ellerstrand J., Enayati A., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Erskine H.E., Eshrati B., Eskandarieh S., Esteghamati A., Estep K., Fanuel F.B.B., Farinha C.S.E.S., Faro A., Farzadfar F., Fazeli M.S., Feigin V.L., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes J.C., Ferrari A.J., Feyissa T.R., Filip I., Fischer F., Fitzmaurice C., Flaxman A.D., Flor L.S., Foigt N., Foreman K.J., Franklin R.C., Fullman N., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Futran N.D., Gakidou E., Ganji M., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gebre T., Gebrehiwot T.T., Geleto A., Gemechu B.L., Gesesew H.A., Gething P.W., Ghajar A., Gibney K.B., Gill P.S., Gillum R.F., Ginawi I.A.M., Giref A.Z., Gishu M.D., Giussani G., Godwin W.W., Gold A.L., Goldberg E.M., Gona P.N., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Goto A., Goulart A.C., Griswold M., Gugnani H.C., Gupta R., Gupta T., Gupta V., Hafezi-Nejad N., Hailu A.D., Hailu G.B., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Hao Y., Harb H.L., Hareri H.A., Haro J.M., Harvey J., Hassanvand M.S., Havmoeller R., Hawley C., Hay R.J., Hay S.I., Henry N.J., Heredia-Pi I.B., Heydarpour P., Hoek H.W., Hoffman H.J., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hostiuc S., Hotez P.J., Hoy D.G., Htet A.S., Hu G., Huang H., Huynh C., Iburg K.M., Igumbor E.U., Ikeda C., Irvine C.M.S., Jacobsen K.H., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M.B., Jassal S.K., Javanbakht M., Jayaraman S.P., Jeemon P., Jensen P.N., Jha V., Jiang G., John D., Johnson C.O., Johnson S.C., Jonas J.B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kamal R., Kan H., Karam N.E., Karch A., Karema C.K., Kasaeian A., Kassa G.M., Kassaw N.A., Kassebaum N.J., Kastor A., Katikireddi S.V., Kaul A., Kawakami N., Keiyoro P.N., Kengne A.P., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khang Y.-H., Khosravi A., Khubchandani J., Kieling C., Kim D., Kim P., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K.A., Kivimaki M., Knudsen A.K., Kokubo Y., Kolte D., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Krishnaswami S., Krohn K.J., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kumar G.A., Kumar P., Kumar S., Kyu H.H., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Lambert N., Lan Q., Lavados P.M., Leasher J.L., Lee J.-T., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leshargie C.T., Leung J., Leung R., Levi M., Li Y., Li Kappe D., Liang X., Liben M.L., Lim S.S., Linn S., Liu A., Liu P.Y., Liu S., Liu Y., Lodha R., Logroscino G., London S.J., Looker K.J., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Low N., Lozano R., Lucas T.C.D., Macarayan E.R.K., Magdy Abd El Razek H., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Mahdavi M., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malhotra R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manguerra H., Manhertz T., Mantilla A., Mantovani L.G., Mapoma C.C., Marczak L.B., Martinez-Raga J., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Marz W., Mathur M.R., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGaughey M., McGrath J.J., McKee M., McNellan C., Mehata S., Mehndiratta M.M., Mekonnen T.C., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengistie M.A., Mengistu D.T., Mensah G.A., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mezgebe H.B., Micha R., Millear A., Miller T.R., Mills E.J., Mirarefin M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A., Mishra S.R., Mitchell P.B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadi A., Mohammed K.E., Mohammed S., Mohanty S.K., Mokdad A.H., Mollenkopf S.K., Monasta L., Hernandez J.M., Montico M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Mori R., Morozoff C., Morrison S.D., Moses M., Mountjoy-Venning C., Mruts K.B., Mueller U.O., Muller K., Murdoch M.E., Murthy G.V.S., Musa K.I., Nachega J.B., Nagel G., Naghavi M., Naheed A., Naidoo K.S., Naldi L., Nangia V., Natarajan G., Negasa D.E., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Newton C.R., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen G., Nguyen M., Nguyen Q.L., Nguyen T.H., Nichols E., Ningrum D.N.A., Nolte S., Nong V.M., Norrving B., Noubiap J.J.N., O'Donnell M.J., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Okoro A., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olagunju T.O., Olsen H.E., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Ong K., Opio J.N., Oren E., Ortiz A., Osgood-Zimmerman A., Osman M., Owolabi M.O., Pa M., Pacella R.E., Pana A., Panda B.K., Papachristou C., Park E.-K., Parry C.D., Parsaeian M., Patten S.B., Patton G.C., Paulson K., Pearce N., Pereira D.M., Perico N., Pesudovs K., Peterson C.B., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Pigott D.M., Pillay J.D., Pinho C., Plass D., Pletcher M.A., Popova S., Poulton R.G., Pourmalek F., Prabhakaran D., Prasad N., Prasad N.M., Purcell C., Qorbani M., Quansah R., Rabiee R.H.S., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rahimi K., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Rahman M.H.U., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Ram U., Ranabhat C.L., Rankin Z., Rao P.V., Rao P.C., Rawaf S., Ray S.E., Reiner R.C., Reinig N., Reitsma M.B., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Resnikoff S., Rezaei S., Ribeiro A.L., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Roth G.A., Roy A., Rubagotti E., Ruhago G.M., Saadat S., Sadat N., Safdarian M., Safi S., Safiri S., Sagar R., Sahathevan R., Salama J., Salomon J.A., Salvi S.S., Samy A.M., Sanabria J.R., Santomauro D., Santos I.S., Santos J.V., Santric Milicevic M.M., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schottker B., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Seedat S., Sepanlou S.G., Servan-Mori E.E., Setegn T., Shackelford K.A., Shaheen A., Shaikh M.A., Shamsipour M., Shariful Islam S.M., Sharma J., Sharma R., She J., Shi P., Shields C., Shigematsu M., Shinohara Y., Shiri R., Shirkoohi R., Shirude S., Shishani K., Shrime M.G., Sibai A.M., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silva D.A.S., Silva J.P., Silveira D.G.A., Singh J.A., Singh N.P., Sinha D.N., Skiadaresi E., Skirbekk V., Slepak E.L., Sligar A., Smith D.L., Smith M., Sobaih B.H.A., Sobngwi E., Sorensen R.J.D., Sousa T.C.M., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Stanaway J.D., Stathopoulou V., Steel N., Stein D.J., Stein M.B., Steiner C., Steiner T.J., Steinke S., Stokes M.A., Stovner L.J., Strub B., Subart M., Sufiyan M.B., Suliankatchi Abdulkader R., Sunguya B.F., Sur P.J., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Sylte D.O., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Taffere G.R., Takala J.S., Tandon N., Tavakkoli M., Taveira N., Taylor H.R., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Tekelab T., Temam Shifa G., Terkawi A.S., Tesfaye D.J., Tesssema B., Thamsuwan O., Thomas K.E., Tiruye T.Y., Tobe-Gai R., Tollanes M.C., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Tortajada M., Touvier M., Tran B.X., Tripathi S., Troeger C., Truelsen T., Tsoi D., Tuem K.B., Tuzcu E.M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Undurraga E.A., Uneke C.J., Updike R., Uthman O.A., Uzochukwu B.S.C., Van Boven J.F.M., Varughese S., Vasankari T., Venkatesh S., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V.V., Vollset S.E., Wadilo F., Wakayo T., Wang Y.-P., Weaver M., Weichenthal S., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Wijeratne T., Wiysonge C.S., Wolfe C.D.A., Woodbrook R., Woolf A.D., Workicho A., Wulf Hanson S., Xavier D., Xu G., Yadgir S., Yaghoubi M., Yakob B., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Ye P., Yimam H.H., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Zaidi Z., Zaki M.E.S., Zegeye E.A., Zenebe Z.M., Zhang X., Zhou M., Zipkin B., Zodpey S., Zuhlke L.J., Murray C.J.L., De Courten B., Thrift A.G., Vos T., Abajobir A.A., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abate K.H., Abd-Allah F., Abdulle A.M., Abebo T.A., Abera S.F., Aboyans V., Abu-Raddad L.J., Ackerman I.N., Adamu A.A., Adetokunboh O., Afarideh M., Afshin A., Agarwal S.K., Aggarwal R., Agrawal A., Agrawal S., Ahmad Kiadaliri A., Ahmadieh H., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Aiyar S., Akinyemi R.O., Akseer N., Al Lami F.H., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alam N., Alam T., Alasfoor D., Alene K.A., Ali R., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Allen C., Al-Maskari F., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Alsowaidi S., Altirkawi K.A., Amare A.T., Amini E., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Andersen H.H., Antonio C.A.T., Anwari P., Larsson A., Arnlov J., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Asayesh H., Asgedom S.W., Assadi R., Atey T.M., Atnafu N.T., Atre S.R., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayala Quintanilla B.P., Ba Saleem H.O., Bacha U., Badawi A., Balakrishnan K., Banerjee A., Bannick M.S., Barac A., Barber R.M., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T., Barquera S., Barregard L., Barrero L.H., Basu S., Battista B., Battle K.E., Baune B.T., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Beardsley J., Bedi N., Beghi E., Bejot Y., Bekele B.B., Bell M.L., Bennett D.A., Bensenor I.M., Benson J., Berhane A., Berhe D.F., Bernabe E., Betsu B.D., Beuran M., Beyene A.S., Bhala N., Bhansali A., Bhatt S., Bhutta Z.A., Biadgilign S., Bienhoff K., Bikbov B., Birungi C., Biryukov S., Bisanzio D., Bizuayehu H.M., Boneya D.J., Boufous S., Bourne R.R.A., Brazinova A., Brugha T.S., Buchbinder R., Bulto L.N.B., Bumgarner B.R., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Cameron E., Car M., Carabin H., Carapetis J.R., Cardenas R., Carpenter D.O., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Carvalho F., Casey D.C., Caso V., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castle C.D., Catala-Lopez F., Chang H.-Y., Chang J.-C., Charlson F.J., Chen H., Chibalabala M., Chibueze C.E., Chisumpa V.H., Chitheer A.A., Christopher D.J., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Colombara D., Cooper C., Cortesi P.A., Criqui M.H., Crump J.A., Dadi A.F., Dalal K., Dandona L., Dandona R., Das Neves J., Davitoiu D.V., De Leo D., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Dellavalle R.P., Deribe K., Des Jarlais D.C., Dey S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhillon P.K., Dicker D., Ding E.L., Djalalinia S., Do H.P., Dorsey E.R., Dos Santos K.P.B., Douwes-Schultz D., Doyle K.E., Driscoll T.R., Dubey M., Duncan B.B., El-Khatib Z.Z., Ellerstrand J., Enayati A., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Erskine H.E., Eshrati B., Eskandarieh S., Esteghamati A., Estep K., Fanuel F.B.B., Farinha C.S.E.S., Faro A., Farzadfar F., Fazeli M.S., Feigin V.L., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes J.C., Ferrari A.J., Feyissa T.R., Filip I., Fischer F., Fitzmaurice C., Flaxman A.D., Flor L.S., Foigt N., Foreman K.J., Franklin R.C., Fullman N., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Futran N.D., Gakidou E., Ganji M., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gebre T., Gebrehiwot T.T., Geleto A., Gemechu B.L., Gesesew H.A., Gething P.W., Ghajar A., Gibney K.B., Gill P.S., Gillum R.F., Ginawi I.A.M., Giref A.Z., Gishu M.D., Giussani G., Godwin W.W., Gold A.L., Goldberg E.M., Gona P.N., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Goto A., Goulart A.C., Griswold M., Gugnani H.C., Gupta R., Gupta T., Gupta V., Hafezi-Nejad N., Hailu A.D., Hailu G.B., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Hao Y., Harb H.L., Hareri H.A., Haro J.M., Harvey J., Hassanvand M.S., Havmoeller R., Hawley C., Hay R.J., Hay S.I., Henry N.J., Heredia-Pi I.B., Heydarpour P., Hoek H.W., Hoffman H.J., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hostiuc S., Hotez P.J., Hoy D.G., Htet A.S., Hu G., Huang H., Huynh C., Iburg K.M., Igumbor E.U., Ikeda C., Irvine C.M.S., Jacobsen K.H., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M.B., Jassal S.K., Javanbakht M., Jayaraman S.P., Jeemon P., Jensen P.N., Jha V., Jiang G., John D., Johnson C.O., Johnson S.C., Jonas J.B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kamal R., Kan H., Karam N.E., Karch A., Karema C.K., Kasaeian A., Kassa G.M., Kassaw N.A., Kassebaum N.J., Kastor A., Katikireddi S.V., Kaul A., Kawakami N., Keiyoro P.N., Kengne A.P., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khang Y.-H., Khosravi A., Khubchandani J., Kieling C., Kim D., Kim P., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K.A., Kivimaki M., Knudsen A.K., Kokubo Y., Kolte D., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Krishnaswami S., Krohn K.J., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kumar G.A., Kumar P., Kumar S., Kyu H.H., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Lambert N., Lan Q., Lavados P.M., Leasher J.L., Lee J.-T., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leshargie C.T., Leung J., Leung R., Levi M., Li Y., Li Kappe D., Liang X., Liben M.L., Lim S.S., Linn S., Liu A., Liu P.Y., Liu S., Liu Y., Lodha R., Logroscino G., London S.J., Looker K.J., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Low N., Lozano R., Lucas T.C.D., Macarayan E.R.K., Magdy Abd El Razek H., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Mahdavi M., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malhotra R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manguerra H., Manhertz T., Mantilla A., Mantovani L.G., Mapoma C.C., Marczak L.B., Martinez-Raga J., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Marz W., Mathur M.R., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGaughey M., McGrath J.J., McKee M., McNellan C., Mehata S., Mehndiratta M.M., Mekonnen T.C., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengistie M.A., Mengistu D.T., Mensah G.A., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mezgebe H.B., Micha R., Millear A., Miller T.R., Mills E.J., Mirarefin M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A., Mishra S.R., Mitchell P.B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadi A., Mohammed K.E., Mohammed S., Mohanty S.K., Mokdad A.H., Mollenkopf S.K., Monasta L., Hernandez J.M., Montico M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Mori R., Morozoff C., Morrison S.D., Moses M., Mountjoy-Venning C., Mruts K.B., Mueller U.O., Muller K., Murdoch M.E., Murthy G.V.S., Musa K.I., Nachega J.B., Nagel G., Naghavi M., Naheed A., Naidoo K.S., Naldi L., Nangia V., Natarajan G., Negasa D.E., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Newton C.R., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen G., Nguyen M., Nguyen Q.L., Nguyen T.H., Nichols E., Ningrum D.N.A., Nolte S., Nong V.M., Norrving B., Noubiap J.J.N., O'Donnell M.J., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Okoro A., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olagunju T.O., Olsen H.E., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Ong K., Opio J.N., Oren E., Ortiz A., Osgood-Zimmerman A., Osman M., Owolabi M.O., Pa M., Pacella R.E., Pana A., Panda B.K., Papachristou C., Park E.-K., Parry C.D., Parsaeian M., Patten S.B., Patton G.C., Paulson K., Pearce N., Pereira D.M., Perico N., Pesudovs K., Peterson C.B., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Pigott D.M., Pillay J.D., Pinho C., Plass D., Pletcher M.A., Popova S., Poulton R.G., Pourmalek F., Prabhakaran D., Prasad N., Prasad N.M., Purcell C., Qorbani M., Quansah R., Rabiee R.H.S., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rahimi K., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Rahman M.H.U., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Ram U., Ranabhat C.L., Rankin Z., Rao P.V., Rao P.C., Rawaf S., Ray S.E., Reiner R.C., Reinig N., Reitsma M.B., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Resnikoff S., Rezaei S., Ribeiro A.L., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Roth G.A., Roy A., Rubagotti E., Ruhago G.M., Saadat S., Sadat N., Safdarian M., Safi S., Safiri S., Sagar R., Sahathevan R., Salama J., Salomon J.A., Salvi S.S., Samy A.M., Sanabria J.R., Santomauro D., Santos I.S., Santos J.V., Santric Milicevic M.M., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schottker B., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Seedat S., Sepanlou S.G., Servan-Mori E.E., Setegn T., Shackelford K.A., Shaheen A., Shaikh M.A., Shamsipour M., Shariful Islam S.M., Sharma J., Sharma R., She J., Shi P., Shields C., Shigematsu M., Shinohara Y., Shiri R., Shirkoohi R., Shirude S., Shishani K., Shrime M.G., Sibai A.M., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silva D.A.S., Silva J.P., Silveira D.G.A., Singh J.A., Singh N.P., Sinha D.N., Skiadaresi E., Skirbekk V., Slepak E.L., Sligar A., Smith D.L., Smith M., Sobaih B.H.A., Sobngwi E., Sorensen R.J.D., Sousa T.C.M., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Stanaway J.D., Stathopoulou V., Steel N., Stein D.J., Stein M.B., Steiner C., Steiner T.J., Steinke S., Stokes M.A., Stovner L.J., Strub B., Subart M., Sufiyan M.B., Suliankatchi Abdulkader R., Sunguya B.F., Sur P.J., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Sylte D.O., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Taffere G.R., Takala J.S., Tandon N., Tavakkoli M., Taveira N., Taylor H.R., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Tekelab T., Temam Shifa G., Terkawi A.S., Tesfaye D.J., Tesssema B., Thamsuwan O., Thomas K.E., Tiruye T.Y., Tobe-Gai R., Tollanes M.C., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Tortajada M., Touvier M., Tran B.X., Tripathi S., Troeger C., Truelsen T., Tsoi D., Tuem K.B., Tuzcu E.M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Undurraga E.A., Uneke C.J., Updike R., Uthman O.A., Uzochukwu B.S.C., Van Boven J.F.M., Varughese S., Vasankari T., Venkatesh S., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V.V., Vollset S.E., Wadilo F., Wakayo T., Wang Y.-P., Weaver M., Weichenthal S., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Wijeratne T., Wiysonge C.S., Wolfe C.D.A., Woodbrook R., Woolf A.D., Workicho A., Wulf Hanson S., Xavier D., Xu G., Yadgir S., Yaghoubi M., Yakob B., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Ye P., Yimam H.H., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Zaidi Z., Zaki M.E.S., Zegeye E.A., Zenebe Z.M., Zhang X., Zhou M., Zipkin B., Zodpey S., Zuhlke L.J., Murray C.J.L., De Courten B., Thrift A.G., Vos T., Abajobir A.A., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abate K.H., Abd-Allah F., Abdulle A.M., Abebo T.A., Abera S.F., Aboyans V., Abu-Raddad L.J., Ackerman I.N., Adamu A.A., Adetokunboh O., Afarideh M., Afshin A., Agarwal S.K., Aggarwal R., Agrawal A., Agrawal S., Ahmad Kiadaliri A., Ahmadieh H., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Aiyar S., Akinyemi R.O., Akseer N., Al Lami F.H., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alam N., Alam T., Alasfoor D., Alene K.A., Ali R., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Allen C., Al-Maskari F., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Alsowaidi S., Altirkawi K.A., Amare A.T., Amini E., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Andersen H.H., Antonio C.A.T., and Anwari P.
- Abstract
Background As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Methods We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57.6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40.8-75.9 million [7.2%, 6.0-8.3]), 45.1 million (29.0-62.8 million [5.6%, 4.0-7.2]), 36.3 million (25.3-50.9 million [4.5%, 3.8-5.3]), 34.7 million (23.0-49.6 million [4.3%, 3.5-5.2]), and 34.1 million (23.5-46.0 million [4.2%, 3.2-5.3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2.7% (95% UI 2.3-3.1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-c
- Published
- 2017
19. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.
- Author
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Soneji S., Alahdab F., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Terkawi A.S., Tesssema B., Thakur J.S., Thamsuwan O., Thankappan K.R., Theis A.M., Thomas M.L., Thomson A.J., Thrift A.G., Tillmann T., Tobe-Gai R., Tobollik M., Tollanes M.C., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Torre A., Tortajada M., Touvier M., Tran B.X., Truelsen T., Tuem K.B., Tuzcu E.M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Uneke C.J., Updike R., Uthman O.A., Van Boven J.F.M., Van Donkelaar A., Varughese S., Vasankari T., Veerman L.J., Venkateswaran V., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V.V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Wadilo F., Wakayo T., Wallin M.T., Wang Y.-P., Weichenthal S., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss D.J., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Wiysonge C.S., Woldeyes B.G., Wolfe C.D.A., Woodbrook R., Workicho A., Wulf Hanson S., Xavier D., Xu G., Yadgir S., Yakob B., Yan L.L., Yaseri M., Yimam H.H., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Zaidi Z., El Sayed Zaki M., Zavala-Arciniega L., Zhang X., Zimsen S.R.M., Zipkin B., Zodpey S., Lim S.S., Murray C.J.L., Gakidou E., Afshin A., Abajobir A.A., Abate K.H., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abdulle A.M., Abera S.F., Aboyans V., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M.E., Abyu G.Y., Adedeji I.A., Adetokunboh O., Afarideh M., Agrawal A., Agrawal S., Ahmad Kiadaliri A., Ahmadieh H., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Akinyemi R.O., Akseer N., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alam N., Alam T., Alasfoor D., Alene K.A., Ali K., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Altirkawi K.A., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Amini E., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Ansari H., Anto J.M., Antonio C.A.T., Anwari P., Arian N., Arnlov J., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Asayesh H., Asgedom S.W., Atey T.M., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Azzopardi P., Bacha U., Badawi A., Balakrishnan K., Ballew S.H., Barac A., Barber R.M., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T., Barquera S., Barregard L., Barrero L.H., Batis C., Battle K.E., Baune B.T., Beardsley J., Bedi N., Beghi E., Bell M.L., Bennett D.A., Bennett J.R., Bensenor I.M., Berhane A., Berhe D.F., Bernabe E., Betsu B.D., Beuran M., Beyene A.S., Bhansali A., Bhutta Z.A., Bikbov B., Birungi C., Biryukov S., Blosser C.D., Boneya D.J., Bou-Orm I.R., Brauer M., Breitborde N.J.K., Brenner H., Brugha T.S., Bulto L.N.B., Baumgarner B.R., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Cardenas R., Carrero J.J., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Catala-Lopez F., Cercy K., Chang H.-Y., Charlson F.J., Chimed-Ochir O., Chisumpa V.H., Chitheer A.A., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Cirillo M., Cohen A.J., Comfort H., Cooper C., Coresh J., Cornaby L., Cortesi P.A., Criqui M.H., Crump J.A., Dandona L., Dandona R., Das Neves J., Davey G., Davitoiu D.V., Davletov K., De Courten B., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Dellavalle R.P., Deribe K., Deshpande A., Dharmaratne S.D., Ding E.L., Djalalinia S., Do H.P., Dokova K., Doku D.T., Dorsey E.R., Driscoll T.R., Dubey M., Duncan B.B., Duncan S., Ebert N., Ebrahimi H., El-Khatib Z.Z., Enayati A., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Erskine H.E., Eshrati B., Eskandarieh S., Esteghamati A., Estep K., Faraon E.J.A., Farinha C.S.E.S., Faro A., Farzadfar F., Fay K., Feigin V.L., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes J.C., Ferrari A.J., Feyissa T.R., Filip I., Fischer F., Fitzmaurice C., Flaxman A.D., Foigt N., Foreman K.J., Frostad J.J., Fullman N., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Ganji M., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gebrehiwot T.T., Geleijnse J.M., Geleto A., Gemechu B.L., Gesesew H.A., Gething P.W., Ghajar A., Gibney K.B., Gill P.S., Gillum R.F., Giref A.Z., Gishu M.D., Giussani G., Godwin W.W., Gona P.N., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Goryakin Y., Goulart A.C., Graetz N., Gugnani H.C., Guo J., Gupta R., Gupta T., Gupta V., Gutierrez R.A., Hachinski V., Hafezi-Nejad N., Hailu G.B., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Hammami M., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Harb H.L., Hareri H.A., Hassanvand M.S., Havmoeller R., Hawley C., Hay S.I., Hedayati M.T., Hendrie D., Heredia-Pi I.B., Hoek H.W., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hostiuc S., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Hu G., Huang H., Huang J.J., Iburg K.M., Ikeda C., Inoue M., Irvine C.M.S., Jackson M.D., Jacobsen K.H., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M.B., Jauregui A., Javanbakht M., Jeemon P., Johansson L.R.K., Johnson C.O., Jonas J.B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kamal R., Karch A., Karema C.K., Kasaeian A., Kassebaum N.J., Kastor A., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Keiyoro P.N., Kelbore S.G., Kemmer L., Kengne A.P., Kesavachandran C.N., Khader Y.S., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khang Y.-H., Khosravi A., Khubchandani J., Kieling C., Kim D., Kim J.Y., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K.A., Kivimaki M., Knibbs L.D., Knudsen A.K., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Krohn K.J., Kromhout H., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kumar G.A., Kutz M., Kyu H.H., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Lallukka T., Lan Q., Lansingh V.C., Larsson A., Lee A., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leung J., Levi M., Li Y., Liang X., Liben M.L., Linn S., Liu P., Lodha R., Logroscino G., Looker K.J., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Lozano R., Lunevicius R., Macarayan E.R.K., Magdy Abd El Razek H., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malhotra R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manguerra H., Mantovani L.G., Mapoma C.C., Martin R.V., Martinez-Raga J., Martins-Melo F.R., Mathur M.R., Matsushita K., Matzopoulos R., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGrath J.J., Mehata S., Mehndiratta M.M., Meier T., Melaku Y.A., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengesha M.M., Mensah G.A., Mensink G.B.M., Mereta S.T., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mezgebe H.B., Micha R., Millear A., Miller T.R., Minnig S., Mirarefin M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A., Mishra S.R., Mohammad K.A., Mohammed K.E., Mohammed S., Mohamed Ibrahim N., Mohan M.B.V., Mokdad A.H., Monasta L., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Montico M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Morrison S.D., Mountjoy-Venning C., Mueller U.O., Mullany E.C., Muller K., Murthy G.V.S., Musa K.I., Naghavi M., Naheed A., Nangia V., Natarajan G., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen G., Nguyen M., Nguyen Q.L., Nguyen T.H., Nichols E., Ningrum D.N.A., Nomura M., Nong V.M., Norheim O.F., Norrving B., Noubiap J.J.N., Obermeyer C.M., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olagunju T.O., Olivares P.R., Olsen H.E., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Opio J.N., Oren E., Ortiz A., Ota E., Owolabi M.O., Pa M., Pacella R.E., Pana A., Panda B.K., Panda-Jonas S., Pandian J.D., Papachristou C., Park E.-K., Parry C.D., Patten S.B., Patton G.C., Pereira D.M., Perico N., Pesudovs K., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Pillay J.D., Piradov M.A., Pishgar F., Plass D., Pletcher M.A., Polinder S., Popova S., Poulton R.G., Pourmalek F., Prasad N., Purcell C., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Rahman M.H.U., Rahman M.A., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Ram U., Rawaf S., Rehm C.D., Rehm J., Reiner R.C., Reitsma M.B., Reynales-Shigematsu L.M., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Resnikoff S., Rezaei S., Ribeiro A.L., Rivera J.A., Roba K.T., Rojas-Rueda D., Roman Y., Room R., Roshandel G., Roth G.A., Rothenbacher D., Rubagotti E., Rushton L., Sadat N., Safdarian M., Safi S., Safiri S., Sahathevan R., Salama J., Salomon J.A., Samy A.M., Sanabria J.R., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Sanchez-Pimienta T.G., Santomauro D., Santos I.S., Santric Milicevic M.M., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Schaeffner E., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schutte A.E., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Seedat S., Sepanlou S.G., Serdar B., Servan-Mori E.E., Shaddick G., Shaheen A., Shahraz S., Shaikh M.A., Shamah Levy T., Shamsipour M., Shamsizadeh M., Shariful Islam S.M., Sharma J., Sharma R., She J., Shen J., Shi P., Shibuya K., Shields C., Shiferaw M.S., Shigematsu M., Shin M.-J., Shiri R., Shirkoohi R., Shishani K., Shoman H., Shrime M.G., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silva D.A.S., Silva J.P., Silveira D.G.A., Singh J.A., Singh V., Sinha D.N., Skiadaresi E., Slepak E.L., Smith D.L., Smith M., Sobaih B.H.A., Sobngwi E., Sorensen R.J.D., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Steel N., Stein D.J., Steiner C., Steinke S., Stokes M.A., Strub B., Subart M., Sufiyan M.B., Suliankatchi R.A., Sur P.J., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Szoeke C.E.I., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadakamadla S.K., Takahashi K., Takala J.S., Tandon N., Tanner M., Tarekegn Y.L., Tavakkoli M., Tegegne T.K., Soneji S., Alahdab F., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Terkawi A.S., Tesssema B., Thakur J.S., Thamsuwan O., Thankappan K.R., Theis A.M., Thomas M.L., Thomson A.J., Thrift A.G., Tillmann T., Tobe-Gai R., Tobollik M., Tollanes M.C., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Torre A., Tortajada M., Touvier M., Tran B.X., Truelsen T., Tuem K.B., Tuzcu E.M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Uneke C.J., Updike R., Uthman O.A., Van Boven J.F.M., Van Donkelaar A., Varughese S., Vasankari T., Veerman L.J., Venkateswaran V., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V.V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Wadilo F., Wakayo T., Wallin M.T., Wang Y.-P., Weichenthal S., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss D.J., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Wiysonge C.S., Woldeyes B.G., Wolfe C.D.A., Woodbrook R., Workicho A., Wulf Hanson S., Xavier D., Xu G., Yadgir S., Yakob B., Yan L.L., Yaseri M., Yimam H.H., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Zaidi Z., El Sayed Zaki M., Zavala-Arciniega L., Zhang X., Zimsen S.R.M., Zipkin B., Zodpey S., Lim S.S., Murray C.J.L., Gakidou E., Afshin A., Abajobir A.A., Abate K.H., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abdulle A.M., Abera S.F., Aboyans V., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M.E., Abyu G.Y., Adedeji I.A., Adetokunboh O., Afarideh M., Agrawal A., Agrawal S., Ahmad Kiadaliri A., Ahmadieh H., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Akinyemi R.O., Akseer N., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alam N., Alam T., Alasfoor D., Alene K.A., Ali K., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Altirkawi K.A., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Amini E., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Ansari H., Anto J.M., Antonio C.A.T., Anwari P., Arian N., Arnlov J., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Asayesh H., Asgedom S.W., Atey T.M., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Azzopardi P., Bacha U., Badawi A., Balakrishnan K., Ballew S.H., Barac A., Barber R.M., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T., Barquera S., Barregard L., Barrero L.H., Batis C., Battle K.E., Baune B.T., Beardsley J., Bedi N., Beghi E., Bell M.L., Bennett D.A., Bennett J.R., Bensenor I.M., Berhane A., Berhe D.F., Bernabe E., Betsu B.D., Beuran M., Beyene A.S., Bhansali A., Bhutta Z.A., Bikbov B., Birungi C., Biryukov S., Blosser C.D., Boneya D.J., Bou-Orm I.R., Brauer M., Breitborde N.J.K., Brenner H., Brugha T.S., Bulto L.N.B., Baumgarner B.R., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Cardenas R., Carrero J.J., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Catala-Lopez F., Cercy K., Chang H.-Y., Charlson F.J., Chimed-Ochir O., Chisumpa V.H., Chitheer A.A., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Cirillo M., Cohen A.J., Comfort H., Cooper C., Coresh J., Cornaby L., Cortesi P.A., Criqui M.H., Crump J.A., Dandona L., Dandona R., Das Neves J., Davey G., Davitoiu D.V., Davletov K., De Courten B., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Dellavalle R.P., Deribe K., Deshpande A., Dharmaratne S.D., Ding E.L., Djalalinia S., Do H.P., Dokova K., Doku D.T., Dorsey E.R., Driscoll T.R., Dubey M., Duncan B.B., Duncan S., Ebert N., Ebrahimi H., El-Khatib Z.Z., Enayati A., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Erskine H.E., Eshrati B., Eskandarieh S., Esteghamati A., Estep K., Faraon E.J.A., Farinha C.S.E.S., Faro A., Farzadfar F., Fay K., Feigin V.L., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes J.C., Ferrari A.J., Feyissa T.R., Filip I., Fischer F., Fitzmaurice C., Flaxman A.D., Foigt N., Foreman K.J., Frostad J.J., Fullman N., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Ganji M., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gebrehiwot T.T., Geleijnse J.M., Geleto A., Gemechu B.L., Gesesew H.A., Gething P.W., Ghajar A., Gibney K.B., Gill P.S., Gillum R.F., Giref A.Z., Gishu M.D., Giussani G., Godwin W.W., Gona P.N., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Goryakin Y., Goulart A.C., Graetz N., Gugnani H.C., Guo J., Gupta R., Gupta T., Gupta V., Gutierrez R.A., Hachinski V., Hafezi-Nejad N., Hailu G.B., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Hammami M., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Harb H.L., Hareri H.A., Hassanvand M.S., Havmoeller R., Hawley C., Hay S.I., Hedayati M.T., Hendrie D., Heredia-Pi I.B., Hoek H.W., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hostiuc S., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Hu G., Huang H., Huang J.J., Iburg K.M., Ikeda C., Inoue M., Irvine C.M.S., Jackson M.D., Jacobsen K.H., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M.B., Jauregui A., Javanbakht M., Jeemon P., Johansson L.R.K., Johnson C.O., Jonas J.B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kamal R., Karch A., Karema C.K., Kasaeian A., Kassebaum N.J., Kastor A., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Keiyoro P.N., Kelbore S.G., Kemmer L., Kengne A.P., Kesavachandran C.N., Khader Y.S., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khang Y.-H., Khosravi A., Khubchandani J., Kieling C., Kim D., Kim J.Y., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K.A., Kivimaki M., Knibbs L.D., Knudsen A.K., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Krohn K.J., Kromhout H., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kumar G.A., Kutz M., Kyu H.H., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Lallukka T., Lan Q., Lansingh V.C., Larsson A., Lee A., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leung J., Levi M., Li Y., Liang X., Liben M.L., Linn S., Liu P., Lodha R., Logroscino G., Looker K.J., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Lozano R., Lunevicius R., Macarayan E.R.K., Magdy Abd El Razek H., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malhotra R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manguerra H., Mantovani L.G., Mapoma C.C., Martin R.V., Martinez-Raga J., Martins-Melo F.R., Mathur M.R., Matsushita K., Matzopoulos R., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGrath J.J., Mehata S., Mehndiratta M.M., Meier T., Melaku Y.A., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengesha M.M., Mensah G.A., Mensink G.B.M., Mereta S.T., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mezgebe H.B., Micha R., Millear A., Miller T.R., Minnig S., Mirarefin M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A., Mishra S.R., Mohammad K.A., Mohammed K.E., Mohammed S., Mohamed Ibrahim N., Mohan M.B.V., Mokdad A.H., Monasta L., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Montico M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Morrison S.D., Mountjoy-Venning C., Mueller U.O., Mullany E.C., Muller K., Murthy G.V.S., Musa K.I., Naghavi M., Naheed A., Nangia V., Natarajan G., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen G., Nguyen M., Nguyen Q.L., Nguyen T.H., Nichols E., Ningrum D.N.A., Nomura M., Nong V.M., Norheim O.F., Norrving B., Noubiap J.J.N., Obermeyer C.M., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olagunju T.O., Olivares P.R., Olsen H.E., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Opio J.N., Oren E., Ortiz A., Ota E., Owolabi M.O., Pa M., Pacella R.E., Pana A., Panda B.K., Panda-Jonas S., Pandian J.D., Papachristou C., Park E.-K., Parry C.D., Patten S.B., Patton G.C., Pereira D.M., Perico N., Pesudovs K., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Pillay J.D., Piradov M.A., Pishgar F., Plass D., Pletcher M.A., Polinder S., Popova S., Poulton R.G., Pourmalek F., Prasad N., Purcell C., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Rahman M.H.U., Rahman M.A., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Ram U., Rawaf S., Rehm C.D., Rehm J., Reiner R.C., Reitsma M.B., Reynales-Shigematsu L.M., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Resnikoff S., Rezaei S., Ribeiro A.L., Rivera J.A., Roba K.T., Rojas-Rueda D., Roman Y., Room R., Roshandel G., Roth G.A., Rothenbacher D., Rubagotti E., Rushton L., Sadat N., Safdarian M., Safi S., Safiri S., Sahathevan R., Salama J., Salomon J.A., Samy A.M., Sanabria J.R., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Sanchez-Pimienta T.G., Santomauro D., Santos I.S., Santric Milicevic M.M., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Schaeffner E., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schutte A.E., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Seedat S., Sepanlou S.G., Serdar B., Servan-Mori E.E., Shaddick G., Shaheen A., Shahraz S., Shaikh M.A., Shamah Levy T., Shamsipour M., Shamsizadeh M., Shariful Islam S.M., Sharma J., Sharma R., She J., Shen J., Shi P., Shibuya K., Shields C., Shiferaw M.S., Shigematsu M., Shin M.-J., Shiri R., Shirkoohi R., Shishani K., Shoman H., Shrime M.G., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silva D.A.S., Silva J.P., Silveira D.G.A., Singh J.A., Singh V., Sinha D.N., Skiadaresi E., Slepak E.L., Smith D.L., Smith M., Sobaih B.H.A., Sobngwi E., Sorensen R.J.D., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Steel N., Stein D.J., Steiner C., Steinke S., Stokes M.A., Strub B., Subart M., Sufiyan M.B., Suliankatchi R.A., Sur P.J., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Szoeke C.E.I., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadakamadla S.K., Takahashi K., Takala J.S., Tandon N., Tanner M., Tarekegn Y.L., Tavakkoli M., and Tegegne T.K.
- Abstract
Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Method(s): We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined. Finding(s): Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for m
- Published
- 2017
20. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- Author
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Rabiee R.H.S., Kan H., Karch A., Karimkhani C., Kaul A., Keiyoro P.N., Lyons R.A., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khan E.A., Khang Y.H., Won S., Khera S., Tavakkoli M., Khoja T.A.M., Khubchandani J., Kim C., Kim D., Kim Y.J., Skogen J.C., Savic M., Kokubo Y., Kolte D., McGarvey S.T., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Varakin Y.Y., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kudom A.A., Polinder S., Kuipers E.J., Lallukka T., Shiri R., Meretoja T.J., Lam H., Lam J.O., Nachega J.B., Tran B.X., Langan S.M., McKee M., Lavados P.M., Leasher J.L., Leung R., Levi M., Li Y., Liang J., Liu Y., Phillips M.R., Lloyd B.K., Logroscino G., Looker K.J., Lunevicius R., Mackay M.T., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Mahdavi M., Marcenes W., Meaney P.A., Margolis D.J., Martinez-Raga J., McMahon B.J., Mehari A., Tedla B.A., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mhimbira F.A., Miller T.R., Mills E.J., Mohammadi A., Monasta L., Montico M., Ronfani L., Morawska L., Norman R.E., Werdecker A., Mueller U.O., Westerman R., Paternina Caicedo A.J., Murdoch M.E., Seedat S., Wiysonge C.S., Nagel G., Rothenbacher D., Naheed A., Naldi L., Nangia V., Ngalesoni F.N., Nguyen Q.L., Nkamedjie Pete P.M., Nolla J.M., Nunes B.P., Ogbo F.A., Oh I., Ohkubo T., Olivares P.R., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Ortiz A., Ota E., Park E., Passos V.M.D.A., Patten S.B., Tonelli M., Pereira D.M., Perez-Padilla R., Pesudovs K., Pillay J.D., Plass D., Platts-Mills J.A., Pond C.D., Prasad N.M., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rahman M., Rahman S.U., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Refaat A.H., Ribeiro A.L., Rojas-Rueda D., Roy A., Sagar R., Satpathy M., Tandon N., Sahathevan R., Sanabria J.R., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sartorius B., Sawhney M., Schaub M.P., Schneider I.J.C., Silva D.A.S., Schottker B., Schwebel D.C., Singh J.A., Shaheen A., Shaikh M.A., Sharma R., Sharma U., Shin M., Yoon S., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silveira D.G.A., Singh O.P., Singh P.K., Soreide K., Sliwa K., Stein D.J., Soriano J.B., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Stathopoulou V., Stovner L.J., Steinke S., Stroumpoulis K., Sunguya B.F., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Takala J.S., Tanne D., Terkawi A.S., Tuzcu E.M., Thomson A.J., Thurston G.D., Tobe-Gai R., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Truelsen T., Tsala Dimbuene Z., Tsilimbaris M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Uneke C.J., Uthman O.A., van Gool C.H., Vasankari T., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V.V., Waller S.G., Weichenthal S., White R.A., Williams H.C., Wubshet M., Xavier D., Xu G., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Yu C., Zaidi Z., Zaki M.E., Zeeb H., Zuhlke L.J., Vos T., Allen C., Arora M., Barber R.M., Brown A., Carter A., Casey D.C., Charlson F.J., Chen A.Z., Coggeshall M., Cornaby L., Dandona L., Dicker D.J., Dilegge T., Erskine H.E., Ferrari A.J., Fitzmaurice C., Fleming T., Forouzanfar M.H., Fullman N., Goldberg E.M., Graetz N., Haagsma J.A., Hay S.I., Johnson C.O., Kassebaum N.J., Kawashima T., Kemmer L., Khalil I.A., Kyu H.H., Leung J., Lim S.S., Lopez A.D., Marczak L., Mokdad A.H., Naghavi M., Nguyen G., Nsoesie E., Olsen H., Pigott D.M., Pinho C., Rankin Z., Reinig N., Sandar L., Smith A., Stanaway J., Steiner C., Teeple S., Thomas B.A., Troeger C., Wagner J.A., Wang H., Wanga V., Whiteford H.A., Zoeckler L., Alexander L.T., Anderson G.M., Bell B., Bienhoff K., Biryukov S., Blore J., Brown J., Coates M.M., Daoud F., Estep K., Foreman K., Fox J., Friedman J., Frostad J., Godwin W.W., Hancock J., Huynh C., Iannarone M., Kim P., Kutz M., Masiye F., Millear A., Mirarefin M., Mooney M.D., Moradi-Lakeh M., Mullany E., Mumford J.E., Ng M., Rao P., Reitsma M.B., Reynolds A., Roth G.A., Shackelford K.A., Sivonda A., Sligar A., Sorensen R.J.D., Sur P., Vollset S.E., Woodbrook R., Zhou M., Murray C.J.L., Ellenbogen R.G., Kotsakis G.A., Mock C.N., Anderson B.O., Futran N.D., Jensen P.N., Watkins D.A., Bhutta Z.A., Nisar M.I., Akseer N., Abajobir A.A., Knibbs L.D., Lalloo R., Scott J.G., Alam N.K.M., Gouda H.N., Guo Y., McGrath J.J., Jeemon P., Dandona R., Kumar G.A., Gething P.W., Bisanzio D., Deribew A., Ali R., Bennett D.A., Rahimi K., Kinfu Y., Duan L., Liu S., Jin Y., Wang L., Ye P., Liang X., Azzopardi P., Gibney K.B., Meretoja A., Alam K., Borschmann R., Colquhoun S.M., Patton G.C., Weintraub R.G., Szoeke C.E.I., Ademi Z., Taylor H.R., Lozano R., Campos-Nonato I.R., Campuzano J.C., Gomez-Dantes H., Heredia-Pi I.B., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Rios Blancas M.J., Servan-Mori E.E., Mensah G.A., Salomon J.A., Thorne-Lyman A.L., Ajala O.N., Barnighausen T., Ding E.L., Farvid M.S., Wagner G.R., Osman M., Shrime M.G., Fitchett J.R.A., Abate K.H., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebremedhin A.T., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abraham B., Abubakar I., Banerjee A., Benzian H., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M., Ackerman I.N., Buchbinder R., Gabbe B., Thrift A.G., Adebiyi A.O., Akinyemi R.O., Adou A.K., Afanvi K.A., Agardh E.E., Badawi A., Popova S., Agarwal A., Ahmad Kiadaliri A., Norrving B., Ahmadieh H., Yaseri M., Jahanmehr N., Al-Aly Z., Driscoll T.R., Kemp A.H., Leigh J., Mekonnen A.B., Aldhahri S.F., Altirkawi K.A., Alegretti M.A., Alemu Z.A., Alhabib S., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Guillemin F., Allebeck P., Carrero J.J., Fereshtehnejad S.M., Weiderpass E., Havmoeller R., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Melaku Y.A., Ciobanu L.G., Amberbir A., Amini H., Karema C.K., Ammar W., Harb H.L., Amrock S.M., Andersen H.H., Antonio C.A.T., Aregay A.F., Betsu B.D., Hailu G.B., Yebyo H.G., Arnlov J., Larsson A., Artaman A., Asayesh H., Assadi R., Atique S., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayala Quintanilla B.P., Bacha U., Balakrishnan K., Barac A., Barker-Collo S.L., Mohammed S., Barregard L., Petzold M., Barrero L.H., Basu A., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Beghi E., Sheth K.N., Bell M.L., Huang J.J., Santos I.S., Bensenor I.M., Lotufo P.A., Berhane A., Wolfe C.D., Bernabe E., Hay R.J., Roba H.S., Beyene A.S., Bhala N., Piel F.B., Steiner T.J., Bhatt S., Greaves F., Majeed A., Soljak M., Biadgilign S., Bikbov B., Bjertness E., Htet A.S., Boufous S., Degenhardt L., Resnikoff S., Calabria B., Mitchell P.B., Brainin M., Brazinova A., Majdan M., Lo W.D., Shen J., Breitborde N.J.K., Buckle G.C., Butt Z.A., Lal A., Carabin H., Cardenas R., Carpenter D.O., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo Rivas J., Catala-Lopez F., Chang J., Chiang P.P., Chibueze C.E., Chisumpa V.H., Choi J.J., Chowdhury R., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Cirillo M., Cooper C., Cortinovis Biotech M.D., Giussani Biol G., Perico D.N., Remuzzi G., Crump J.A., Derrett S., Poulton R.G., Damtew S.A., Deribe K., Hailu A.D., Giref A.Z., Haile D., Jibat T., Taye B., Dargan P.I., das Neves J., Massano J., Santos J.V., Davey G., Davis A.C., Newton J.N., Steel N., De Leo D., Del Gobbo L.C., Dellavalle R.P., Des Jarlais D.C., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhillon P.K., Ganguly P., Zodpey S., Diaz-Torne C., Dubey M., Rahman M.H.U., Ram U., Singh A., Verma R.K., Yadav A.K., Duncan B.B., 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K., Jacobsen K.H., Jakovljevic M.B., Javanbakht M., Jayaraman S.P., Jayatilleke A.U., Jee S.H., Prabhakaran D., Jiang Y., Jimenez-Corona A., Jonas J.B., Kabir Z., Kalkonde Y., Kamal R., Kesavachandran C.N., Rabiee R.H.S., Kan H., Karch A., Karimkhani C., Kaul A., Keiyoro P.N., Lyons R.A., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khan E.A., Khang Y.H., Won S., Khera S., Tavakkoli M., Khoja T.A.M., Khubchandani J., Kim C., Kim D., Kim Y.J., Skogen J.C., Savic M., Kokubo Y., Kolte D., McGarvey S.T., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Varakin Y.Y., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kudom A.A., Polinder S., Kuipers E.J., Lallukka T., Shiri R., Meretoja T.J., Lam H., Lam J.O., Nachega J.B., Tran B.X., Langan S.M., McKee M., Lavados P.M., Leasher J.L., Leung R., Levi M., Li Y., Liang J., Liu Y., Phillips M.R., Lloyd B.K., Logroscino G., Looker K.J., Lunevicius R., Mackay M.T., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Mahdavi M., Marcenes W., Meaney P.A., Margolis D.J., Martinez-Raga J., McMahon B.J., Mehari A., Tedla B.A., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mhimbira F.A., Miller T.R., Mills E.J., Mohammadi A., Monasta L., Montico M., Ronfani L., Morawska L., Norman R.E., Werdecker A., Mueller U.O., Westerman R., Paternina Caicedo A.J., Murdoch M.E., Seedat S., Wiysonge C.S., Nagel G., Rothenbacher D., Naheed A., Naldi L., Nangia V., Ngalesoni F.N., Nguyen Q.L., Nkamedjie Pete P.M., Nolla J.M., Nunes B.P., Ogbo F.A., Oh I., Ohkubo T., Olivares P.R., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Ortiz A., Ota E., Park E., Passos V.M.D.A., Patten S.B., Tonelli M., Pereira D.M., Perez-Padilla R., Pesudovs K., Pillay J.D., Plass D., Platts-Mills J.A., Pond C.D., Prasad N.M., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rahman M., Rahman S.U., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Refaat A.H., Ribeiro A.L., Rojas-Rueda D., Roy A., Sagar R., Satpathy M., Tandon N., Sahathevan R., Sanabria J.R., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sartorius B., Sawhney M., Schaub M.P., Schneider I.J.C., Silva D.A.S., Schottker B., Schwebel D.C., Singh J.A., Shaheen A., Shaikh M.A., Sharma R., Sharma U., Shin M., Yoon S., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silveira D.G.A., Singh O.P., Singh P.K., Soreide K., Sliwa K., Stein D.J., Soriano J.B., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Stathopoulou V., Stovner L.J., Steinke S., Stroumpoulis K., Sunguya B.F., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Takala J.S., Tanne D., Terkawi A.S., Tuzcu E.M., Thomson A.J., Thurston G.D., Tobe-Gai R., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Truelsen T., Tsala Dimbuene Z., Tsilimbaris M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Uneke C.J., Uthman O.A., van Gool C.H., Vasankari T., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V.V., Waller S.G., Weichenthal S., White R.A., Williams H.C., Wubshet M., Xavier D., Xu G., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Yu C., Zaidi Z., Zaki M.E., Zeeb H., Zuhlke L.J., Vos T., Allen C., Arora M., Barber R.M., Brown A., Carter A., Casey D.C., Charlson F.J., Chen A.Z., Coggeshall M., Cornaby L., Dandona L., Dicker D.J., Dilegge T., Erskine H.E., Ferrari A.J., Fitzmaurice C., Fleming T., Forouzanfar M.H., Fullman N., Goldberg E.M., Graetz N., Haagsma J.A., Hay S.I., Johnson C.O., Kassebaum N.J., Kawashima T., Kemmer L., Khalil I.A., Kyu H.H., Leung J., Lim S.S., Lopez A.D., Marczak L., Mokdad A.H., Naghavi M., Nguyen G., Nsoesie E., Olsen H., Pigott D.M., Pinho C., Rankin Z., Reinig N., Sandar L., Smith A., Stanaway J., Steiner C., Teeple S., Thomas B.A., Troeger C., Wagner J.A., Wang H., Wanga V., Whiteford H.A., Zoeckler L., Alexander L.T., Anderson G.M., Bell B., Bienhoff K., Biryukov S., Blore J., Brown J., Coates M.M., Daoud F., Estep K., Foreman K., Fox J., Friedman J., Frostad J., Godwin W.W., Hancock J., Huynh C., Iannarone M., Kim P., Kutz M., Masiye F., Millear A., Mirarefin M., Mooney M.D., Moradi-Lakeh M., Mullany E., Mumford J.E., Ng M., Rao P., Reitsma M.B., Reynolds A., Roth G.A., Shackelford K.A., Sivonda A., Sligar A., Sorensen R.J.D., Sur P., Vollset S.E., Woodbrook R., Zhou M., Murray C.J.L., Ellenbogen R.G., Kotsakis G.A., Mock C.N., Anderson B.O., Futran N.D., Jensen P.N., Watkins D.A., Bhutta Z.A., Nisar M.I., Akseer N., Abajobir A.A., Knibbs L.D., Lalloo R., Scott J.G., Alam N.K.M., Gouda H.N., Guo Y., McGrath J.J., Jeemon P., Dandona R., Kumar G.A., Gething P.W., Bisanzio D., Deribew A., Ali R., Bennett D.A., Rahimi K., Kinfu Y., Duan L., Liu S., Jin Y., Wang L., Ye P., Liang X., Azzopardi P., Gibney K.B., Meretoja A., Alam K., Borschmann R., Colquhoun S.M., Patton G.C., Weintraub R.G., Szoeke C.E.I., Ademi Z., Taylor H.R., Lozano R., Campos-Nonato I.R., Campuzano J.C., Gomez-Dantes H., Heredia-Pi I.B., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Rios Blancas M.J., Servan-Mori E.E., Mensah G.A., Salomon J.A., Thorne-Lyman A.L., Ajala O.N., Barnighausen T., Ding E.L., Farvid M.S., Wagner G.R., Osman M., Shrime M.G., Fitchett J.R.A., Abate K.H., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebremedhin A.T., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abraham B., Abubakar I., Banerjee A., Benzian H., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M., Ackerman I.N., Buchbinder R., Gabbe B., Thrift A.G., Adebiyi A.O., Akinyemi R.O., Adou A.K., Afanvi K.A., Agardh E.E., Badawi A., Popova S., Agarwal A., Ahmad Kiadaliri A., Norrving B., Ahmadieh H., Yaseri M., Jahanmehr N., Al-Aly Z., Driscoll T.R., Kemp A.H., Leigh J., Mekonnen A.B., Aldhahri S.F., Altirkawi K.A., Alegretti M.A., Alemu Z.A., Alhabib S., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Guillemin F., Allebeck P., Carrero J.J., Fereshtehnejad S.M., Weiderpass E., Havmoeller R., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Melaku Y.A., Ciobanu L.G., Amberbir A., Amini H., Karema C.K., Ammar W., Harb H.L., Amrock S.M., Andersen H.H., Antonio C.A.T., Aregay A.F., Betsu B.D., Hailu G.B., Yebyo H.G., Arnlov J., Larsson A., Artaman A., Asayesh H., Assadi R., Atique S., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayala Quintanilla B.P., Bacha U., Balakrishnan K., Barac A., Barker-Collo S.L., Mohammed S., Barregard L., Petzold M., Barrero L.H., Basu A., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Beghi E., Sheth K.N., Bell M.L., Huang J.J., Santos I.S., Bensenor I.M., Lotufo P.A., Berhane A., Wolfe C.D., Bernabe E., Hay R.J., Roba H.S., Beyene A.S., Bhala N., Piel F.B., Steiner T.J., Bhatt S., Greaves F., Majeed A., Soljak M., Biadgilign S., Bikbov B., Bjertness E., Htet A.S., Boufous S., Degenhardt L., Resnikoff S., Calabria B., Mitchell P.B., Brainin M., Brazinova A., Majdan M., Lo W.D., Shen J., Breitborde N.J.K., Buckle G.C., Butt Z.A., Lal A., Carabin H., Cardenas R., Carpenter D.O., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo Rivas J., Catala-Lopez F., Chang J., Chiang P.P., Chibueze C.E., Chisumpa V.H., Choi J.J., Chowdhury R., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Cirillo M., Cooper C., Cortinovis Biotech M.D., Giussani Biol G., Perico D.N., Remuzzi G., Crump J.A., Derrett S., Poulton R.G., Damtew S.A., Deribe K., Hailu A.D., Giref A.Z., Haile D., Jibat T., Taye B., Dargan P.I., das Neves J., Massano J., Santos J.V., Davey G., Davis A.C., Newton J.N., Steel N., De Leo D., Del Gobbo L.C., Dellavalle R.P., Des Jarlais D.C., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhillon P.K., Ganguly P., Zodpey S., Diaz-Torne C., Dubey M., Rahman M.H.U., Ram U., Singh A., Verma R.K., Yadav A.K., Duncan B.B., Kieling C., Schmidt M.I., Ebrahimi H., Pishgar F., Farzadfar F., Kasaeian A., Parsaeian M., Heydarpour P., Malekzadeh R., Roshandel G., Sepanlou S.G., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Elyazar I., Endres M., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Eshrati B., Farid T.A., Khan A.R., Farinha C.S.E.S., Faro A., Feigin V.L., Te Ao B.J., Kwan G.F., Felson D.T., Fernandes J.G., Fernandes J.C., Fischer F., Shiue I., Fowkes F.G.R., Franklin R.C., Furst T., Iyer V.J., Gankpe F.G., Gebre T., Geleijnse J.M., Gessner B.D., Ginawi I.A., Giroud M., Gishu M.D., Tura A.K., Glaser E., Halasa Y.A., Shepard D.S., Undurraga E.A., Gona P., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Gotay C.C., Kissoon N., Kopec J.A., Pourmalek F., Goto A., Inoue M., Grainger R., Gupta R., Gupta V., Gutierrez R.A., Knudsen A.K., Norheim O.F., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Hammami M., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Hao Y., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hoek H.W., Skirbekk V., Horino M., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hoy D.G., Huang H., Iburg K.M., Innos K., Kawakami N., Shibuya K., Jacobsen K.H., Jakovljevic M.B., Javanbakht M., Jayaraman S.P., Jayatilleke A.U., Jee S.H., Prabhakaran D., Jiang Y., Jimenez-Corona A., Jonas J.B., Kabir Z., Kalkonde Y., Kamal R., and Kesavachandran C.N.
- Abstract
Background Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015. Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores. Findings We generated 9.3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17.2 bi
- Published
- 2016
21. Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017
- Author
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Mohsen Bayati, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Nasir Salam, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Davide Rasella, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Ghulam Mustafa, Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov, Fereshteh Ansari, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Leonardo Roever, Oghenowede Eyawo, Koustuv Dalal, Ana-Laura Manda, Ritesh G. Menezes, Molly K. Miller-Petrie, Javad Yoosefi Lebni, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel, Aziz Eftekhari, Oleguer Plana-Ripoll, Jon Wakefield, Sanjay Zodpey, Birhanu Geta, Amaha Kahsay, Edris Hasanpoor, Brijesh Sathian, Kala M. Mehta, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Saeed Amini, Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi, Abbas Yadegar, João Pedro Silva, Desmond Kuupiel, Anvar Asadi, Hamid Sharifi, Ebrahim Babaee, Dessalegn Ajema Berbada, Taddese Alemu Zerfu, Ian Davis, Mostafa Qorbani, Fatemeh Rajati, Samer Hamidi, Parvaiz A Koul, Foad Abd-Allah, Mojisola Oluwasanu, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Elias Merdassa Roro, Mihaela Hostiuc, Robert S. Bernstein, Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Irina Filip, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Amir Khater, Lidia Morawska, Sangram Kishor Patel, Robert C. Reiner, Joshua O. Akinyemi, Telma Zahirian Moghadam, Ali Akbar Fazaeli, Reza Malekzadeh, Olatunde Aremu, Mohammad Reza Salahshoor, Irfan Ullah, Gabrielle B. Britton, Gelin Xu, Nathaniel J Henry, Thomas R. Hird, Ronny Westerman, Vera Marisa Costa, Reza Assadi, Tiffany K. Gill, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Meysam Olfatifar, Sezer Kisa, Grant Rodgers Kemp, Mahmoud Yousefifard, Aleksandra Barac, Simon I. Hay, Walter Mendoza, Mohammad Zamani, Nader Jafari Balalami, Mahdi Safdarian, Manfred S. Green, Mahesh P A, Nahid Neamati, Pallab K. Maulik, Ali H. Mokdad, Joshua Longbottom, Somayeh Bohlouli, Ahmad Daryani, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Mostafa Hosseini, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Nick Golding, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Shirin Nosratnejad, Haidong Wang, Shadi Rahimzadeh, Pushpendra Kumar, Mehdi Noroozi, Andre M. N. 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C.J.L., and Hay S.I.
- Subjects
Survival ,RJ101 ,Mortalidad Infantil ,HB ,UNDER-5 MORTALITY ,Global Health ,Pediatrics ,0302 clinical medicine ,3123 Gynaecology and paediatrics ,Child death ,Infant Mortality ,Epidemiology ,Global health ,Middle income country ,Nacimiento vivo ,030212 general & internal medicine ,10. No inequality ,Child ,POPULATION ,Developing world ,education.field_of_study ,Public health ,Multidisciplinary ,Geography ,Mortality rate ,wa_900 ,1. No poverty ,SUCCESS ,Pediatrik ,A900 Others in Medicine and Dentistry ,3142 Public health care science, environmental and occupational health ,3. Good health ,Child Mortality ,Death children ,VACCINATION ,HEALTH ,ws_100 ,INTERVENTIONS ,AFRICA ,medicine.medical_specialty ,United Nations ,General Science & Technology ,030231 tropical medicine ,Population ,Developing country ,Article ,Healthcare improvement science Radboud Institute for Health Sciences [Radboudumc 18] ,ITC-HYBRID ,03 medical and health sciences ,All institutes and research themes of the Radboud University Medical Center ,Social Justice ,Recién nacido ,Neonatal deaths ,medicine ,SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS ,Organizational Objectives ,Humans ,education ,Developing Countries ,business.industry ,Infant, Newborn ,Infant ,CIVIL REGISTRATION ,Paediatrics ,Child survival ,Newborn ,PREVENTION ,Infant mortality ,wa_320 ,ws_200 ,Child mortality ,Socioeconomic Factors ,ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE ,Human medicine ,Paediatrics, Public health, Developing world ,business ,Demography - Abstract
Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations., A high-resolution, global atlas of mortality of children under five years of age between 2000 and 2017 highlights subnational geographical inequalities in the distribution, rates and absolute counts of child deaths by age.
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- 2019
22. Past, present, and future of global health financing: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 195 countries, 1995–2050
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Jonas, Mikk Jürisson, Rajendra Kadel, Behzad Karami Matin, Amir Kasaeian, Habtamu Kebebe Kasaye, Mesfin Wudu Kassaw, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Roghayeh Khabiri, Junaid Khan, Md Nuruzzaman Khan, Young-Ho Khang, Adnan Kisa, Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek, Stefan Kohler, Ai Koyanagi, Kristopher J. Krohn, Ricky Leung, Lee-Ling Lim, Stefan Lorkowski, Azeem Majeed, Reza Malekzadeh, Morteza Mansourian, Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani, Benjamin Ballard Massenburg, Martin McKee, Varshil Mehta, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J Meretoja, Neda Milevska Kostova, Ted R Miller, Erkin M Mirrakhimov, Bahram Mohajer, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Shafiu Mohammed, Farnam Mohebi, Ali H Mokdad, Shane Douglas Morrison, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Saravanan Muthupandian, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Vinay Nangia, Ionut Negoi, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Son Hoang Nguyen, Shirin Nosratnejad, Olanrewaju Oladimeji, Stefano Olgiati, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Obinna E Onwujekwe, Stanislav S Otstavnov, Adrian Pana, David M. Pereira, Bakhtiar Piroozi, Sergio I Prada, Mostafa Qorbani, Mohammad Rabiee, Navid Rabiee, Alireza Rafiei, Fakher Rahim, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Usha Ram, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Anna Ranta, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawaf, Satar Rezaei, Elias Merdassa Roro, Ali Rostami, Salvatore Rubino, Mohamadreza Salahshoor, Abdallah M. Samy, Juan Sanabria, João Vasco Santos, Milena M Santric Milicevic, Bruno Piassi Sao Jose, Miloje Savic, Falk Schwendicke, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Masood Sepehrimanesh, Aziz Sheikh, Mark G Shrime, Solomon Sisay, Shahin Soltani, Moslem Soofi, Vinay Srinivasan, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Anna Torre, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Bach Xuan Tran, Khanh Bao Tran, Eduardo A. Undurraga, Pascual R Valdez, Job F M van Boven, Veronica Vargas, Yousef Veisani, Francesco S Violante, Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov, Vasily Vlassov, Sebastian Vollmer, Giang Thu Vu, Charles D A Wolfe, Naohiro Yonemoto, Mustafa Z. Younis, Mahmoud Yousefifard, Sojib Bin Zaman, Alireza Zangeneh, Elias Asfaw Zegeye, Arash Ziapour, Adrienne Chew, Christopher J L Murray, Joseph L Dieleman, Chang A.Y., Cowling K., Micah A.E., Chapin A., Chen C.S., Ikilezi G., Sadat N., Tsakalos G., Wu J., Younker T., Zhao Y., Zlavog B.S., Abbafati C., Ahmed A.E., Alam K., Alipour V., Aljunid S.M., Almalki M.J., Alvis-Guzman N., Ammar W., Andrei C.L., Anjomshoa M., Antonio C.A.T., Arabloo J., Aremu O., Ausloos M., Avila-Burgos L., Awasthi A., Ayanore M.A., Azari S., Azzopardi-Muscat N., Bagherzadeh M., Barnighausen T.W., Baune B.T., Bayati M., Belay Y.B., Belay Y.A., Belete H., Berbada D.A., Berman A.E., Beuran M., Bijani A., Busse R., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Camera L.A., Catala-Lopez F., Chauhan B.G., Constantin M.-M., Crowe C.S., Cucu A., Dalal K., De Neve J.-W., Deiparine S., Demeke F.M., Do H.P., Dubey M., El Tantawi M., Eskandarieh S., Esmaeili R., Fakhar M., Fazaeli A.A., Fischer F., Foigt N.A., Fukumoto T., Fullman N., Galan A., Gamkrelidze A., Gezae K.E., Ghajar A., Ghashghaee A., Goginashvili K., Haakenstad A., Haghparast Bidgoli H., Hamidi S., Harb H.L., Hasanpoor E., Hassen H.Y., Hay S.I., Hendrie D., Henok A., Heredia-Pi I., Herteliu C., Hoang C.L., Hole M.K., Homaie Rad E., Hossain N., Hosseinzadeh M., Hostiuc S., Ilesanmi O.S., Irvani S.S.N., Jakovljevic M., Jalali A., James S.L., Jonas J.B., Jurisson M., Kadel R., Karami Matin B., Kasaeian A., Kasaye H.K., Kassaw M.W., Kazemi Karyani A., Khabiri R., Khan J., Khan M.N., Khang Y.-H., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K., Kohler S., Koyanagi A., Krohn K.J., Leung R., Lim L.-L., Lorkowski S., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Mansourian M., Mantovani L.G., Massenburg B.B., McKee M., Mehta V., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Milevska Kostova N., Miller T.R., Mirrakhimov E.M., Mohajer B., Mohammad Darwesh A., Mohammed S., Mohebi F., Mokdad A.H., Morrison S.D., Mousavi S.M., Muthupandian S., Nagarajan A.J., Nangia V., Negoi I., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen H.L.T., Nguyen S.H., Nosratnejad S., Oladimeji O., Olgiati S., Olusanya J.O., Onwujekwe O.E., Otstavnov S.S., Pana A., Pereira D.M., Piroozi B., Prada S.I., Qorbani M., Rabiee M., Rabiee N., Rafiei A., Rahim F., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Ram U., Ranabhat C.L., Ranta A., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Rezaei S., Roro E.M., Rostami A., Rubino S., Salahshoor M., Samy A.M., Sanabria J., Santos J.V., Santric Milicevic M.M., Sao Jose B.P., Savic M., Schwendicke F., Sepanlou S.G., Sepehrimanesh M., Sheikh A., Shrime M.G., Sisay S., Soltani S., Soofi M., Srinivasan V., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Torre A., Tovani-Palone M.R., Tran B.X., Tran K.B., Undurraga E.A., Valdez P.R., van Boven J.F.M., Vargas V., Veisani Y., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vollmer S., Vu G.T., Wolfe C.D.A., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Yousefifard M., Zaman S.B., Zangeneh A., Zegeye E.A., Ziapour A., Chew A., Murray C.J.L., Dieleman J.L., Global Burden Dis Hlth Financing C, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Chang, A, Cowling, K, Micah, A, Chapin, A, Chen, C, Ikilezi, G, Sadat, N, Tsakalos, G, Wu, J, Younker, T, Zhao, Y, Zlavog, B, Abbafati, C, Ahmed, A, Alam, K, Alipour, V, Aljunid, S, Almalki, M, Alvis-Guzman, N, Ammar, W, Andrei, C, Anjomshoa, M, Antonio, C, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Awasthi, A, Ayanore, M, Azari, S, Azzopardi-Muscat, N, Bagherzadeh, M, Barnighausen, T, Baune, B, Bayati, M, Belay, Y, Belete, H, Berbada, D, Berman, A, Beuran, M, Bijani, A, Busse, R, Cahuana-Hurtado, L, Camera, L, Catala-Lopez, F, Chauhan, B, Constantin, M, Crowe, C, Cucu, A, Dalal, K, De Neve, J, Deiparine, S, Demeke, F, Do, H, Dubey, M, Tantawi, M, Eskandarieh, S, Esmaeili, R, Fakhar, M, Fazaeli, A, Fischer, F, Foigt, N, Fukumoto, T, Fullman, N, Galan, A, Gamkrelidze, A, Gezae, K, Ghajar, A, Ghashghaee, A, Goginashvili, K, Haakenstad, A, Bidgoli, H, Hamidi, S, Harb, H, Hasanpoor, E, Hassen, H, Hay, S, Hendrie, D, Henok, A, Heredia-Pi, I, Herteliu, C, Hoang, C, Hole, M, Rad, E, Hossain, N, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hostiuc, S, Ilesanmi, O, Irvani, S, Jakovljevic, M, Jalali, A, James, S, Jonas, J, Jurisson, M, Kadel, R, Matin, B, Kasaeian, A, Kasaye, H, Kassaw, M, Karyani, A, Khabiri, R, Khan, J, Khan, M, Khang, Y, Kisa, A, Kissimova-Skarbek, K, Kohler, S, Koyanagi, A, Krohn, K, Leung, R, Lim, L, Lorkowski, S, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Mansourian, M, Mantovani, L, Massenburg, B, Mckee, M, Mehta, V, Meretoja, A, Meretoja, T, Kostova, N, Miller, T, Mirrakhimov, E, Mohajer, B, Darwesh, A, Mohammed, S, Mohebi, F, Mokdad, A, Morrison, S, Mousavi, S, Muthupandian, S, Nagarajan, A, Nangia, V, Negoi, I, Nguyen, C, Nguyen, H, Nguyen, S, Nosratnejad, S, Oladimeji, O, Olgiati, S, Olusanya, J, Onwujekwe, O, Otstavnov, S, Pana, A, Pereira, D, Piroozi, B, Prada, S, Qorbani, M, Rabiee, M, Rabiee, N, Rafiei, A, Rahim, F, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Ram, U, Ranabhat, C, Ranta, A, Rawaf, D, Rawaf, S, Rezaei, S, Roro, E, Rostami, A, Rubino, S, Salahshoor, M, Samy, A, Sanabria, J, Santos, J, Milicevic, M, Jose, B, Savic, M, Schwendicke, F, Sepanlou, S, Sepehrimanesh, M, Sheikh, A, Shrime, M, Sisay, S, Soltani, S, Soofi, M, Srinivasan, V, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Torre, A, Tovani-Palone, M, Tran, B, Tran, K, Undurraga, E, Valdez, P, Van Boven, J, Vargas, V, Veisani, Y, Violante, F, Vladimirov, S, Vlassov, V, Vollmer, S, Vu, G, Wolfe, C, Yonemoto, N, Younis, M, Yousefifard, M, Zaman, S, Zangeneh, A, Zegeye, E, Ziapour, A, Chew, A, Murray, C, and Dieleman, J
- Subjects
health financing ,coverage ,030204 cardiovascular system & hematology ,systematic analysis ,Global Health ,Gross domestic product ,DISEASE ,burden ,project ,0302 clinical medicine ,Per capita ,Global health ,Healthcare Financing ,030212 general & internal medicine ,our of pocket ,11 Medical and Health Sciences ,Government spending ,government ,1. No poverty ,Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology ,General Medicine ,Public Assistance ,COVERAGE ,Models, Economic ,8. Economic growth ,health financing, project, government, our of pocket ,BURDEN ,Life Sciences & Biomedicine ,Human ,Gross Domestic Product ,Department of Error ,03 medical and health sciences ,Medicine, General & Internal ,General & Internal Medicine ,SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS ,Revenue ,Humans ,medicine (all) ,Health policy ,Finance ,sex-specific mortality ,Government ,disease ,Science & Technology ,SEX-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ,business.industry ,Prepaid Health Plan ,International health ,Global Burden of Disease Health Financing Collaborator Network ,Health Expenditure ,Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi ,Human medicine ,Health Expenditures ,business ,Prepaid Health Plans - Abstract
Published Erratum. Past, present, and future of global health financing: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 195 countries, 1995-2050. Lancet. 2021 Sep 11;398(10304):956. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01806-7. PMID: 34509230. BACKGROUND: Comprehensive and comparable estimates of health spending in each country are a key input for health policy and planning, and are necessary to support the achievement of national and international health goals. Previous studies have tracked past and projected future health spending until 2040 and shown that, with economic development, countries tend to spend more on health per capita, with a decreasing share of spending from development assistance and out-of-pocket sources. We aimed to characterise the past, present, and predicted future of global health spending, with an emphasis on equity in spending across countries. METHODS: We estimated domestic health spending for 195 countries and territories from 1995 to 2016, split into three categories-government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending-and estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2018. We estimated future scenarios of health spending using an ensemble of linear mixed-effects models with time series specifications to project domestic health spending from 2017 through 2050 and DAH from 2019 through 2050. Data were extracted from a broad set of sources tracking health spending and revenue, and were standardised and converted to inflation-adjusted 2018 US dollars. Incomplete or low-quality data were modelled and uncertainty was estimated, leading to a complete data series of total, government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending, and DAH. Estimates are reported in 2018 US dollars, 2018 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars, and as a percentage of gross domestic product. We used demographic decomposition methods to assess a set of factors associated with changes in government health spending between 1995 and 2016 and to examine evidence to support the theory of the health financing transition. We projected two alternative future scenarios based on higher government health spending to assess the potential ability of governments to generate more resources for health. FINDINGS: Between 1995 and 2016, health spending grew at a rate of 4·00% (95% uncertainty interval 3·89-4·12) annually, although it grew slower in per capita terms (2·72% [2·61-2·84]) and increased by less than $1 per capita over this period in 22 of 195 countries. The highest annual growth rates in per capita health spending were observed in upper-middle-income countries (5·55% [5·18-5·95]), mainly due to growth in government health spending, and in lower-middle-income countries (3·71% [3·10-4·34]), mainly from DAH. Health spending globally reached $8·0 trillion (7·8-8·1) in 2016 (comprising 8·6% [8·4-8·7] of the global economy and $10·3 trillion [10·1-10·6] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), with a per capita spending of US$5252 (5184-5319) in high-income countries, $491 (461-524) in upper-middle-income countries, $81 (74-89) in lower-middle-income countries, and $40 (38-43) in low-income countries. In 2016, 0·4% (0·3-0·4) of health spending globally was in low-income countries, despite these countries comprising 10·0% of the global population. In 2018, the largest proportion of DAH targeted HIV/AIDS ($9·5 billion, 24·3% of total DAH), although spending on other infectious diseases (excluding tuberculosis and malaria) grew fastest from 2010 to 2018 (6·27% per year). The leading sources of DAH were the USA and private philanthropy (excluding corporate donations and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation). For the first time, we included estimates of China's contribution to DAH ($644·7 million in 2018). Globally, health spending is projected to increase to $15·0 trillion (14·0-16·0) by 2050 (reaching 9·4% [7·6-11·3] of the global economy and $21·3 trillion [19·8-23·1] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), but at a lower growth rate of 1·84% (1·68-2·02) annually, and with continuing disparities in spending between countries. In 2050, we estimate that 0·6% (0·6-0·7) of health spending will occur in currently low-income countries, despite these countries comprising an estimated 15·7% of the global population by 2050. The ratio between per capita health spending in high-income and low-income countries was 130·2 (122·9-136·9) in 2016 and is projected to remain at similar levels in 2050 (125·9 [113·7-138·1]). The decomposition analysis identified governments' increased prioritisation of the health sector and economic development as the strongest factors associated with increases in government health spending globally. Future government health spending scenarios suggest that, with greater prioritisation of the health sector and increased government spending, health spending per capita could more than double, with greater impacts in countries that currently have the lowest levels of government health spending. INTERPRETATION: Financing for global health has increased steadily over the past two decades and is projected to continue increasing in the future, although at a slower pace of growth and with persistent disparities in per-capita health spending between countries. Out-of-pocket spending is projected to remain substantial outside of high-income countries. Many low-income countries are expected to remain dependent on development assistance, although with greater government spending, larger investments in health are feasible. In the absence of sustained new investments in health, increasing efficiency in health spending is essential to meet global health targets. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Sí
- Published
- 2019
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