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Statistics knowledge, literacy, and skills are vital to undergraduates' academic and professional careers. Students' attitudes toward statistics play a vital role in their understanding of the importance of statistics. Therefore, it is important to examine their attitude toward statistics. This study investigated the attitude of 153 business students toward statistics and the factors that affect this attitude using the Survey Attitudes Toward Statistics (SATS‐36) scale. It also investigated the relationship between attitudinal components and students' demographic and academic characteristics. Five components underlying students' attitudes toward statistics were identified using exploratory factor analysis. Further, a background in quantitative subjects and demographic characteristics was found to affect students' attitudes toward statistics. The results suggested that statistics should be taught in a more practical way to relate it to students' lives, and teachers must adopt active learning methods in which students work with data and real‐life examples. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determining causes of deaths (CODs) occurred outside of civil registration and vital statistics systems is challenging. A technique called verbal autopsy (VA) is widely adopted to gather information on deaths in practice. A VA consists of interviewing relatives of a deceased person about symptoms of the deceased in the period leading to the death, often resulting in multivariate binary responses. While statistical methods have been devised for estimating the cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) for a study population, continued expansion of VA to new populations (or "domains") necessitates approaches that recognize between-domain differences while capitalizing on potential similarities. In this article, we propose such a domain-adaptive method that integrates external between-domain similarity information encoded by a prespecified rooted weighted tree. Given a cause, we use latent class models to characterize the conditional distributions of the responses that may vary by domain. We specify a logistic stick-breaking Gaussian diffusion process prior along the tree for class mixing weights with node-specific spike-and-slab priors to pool information between the domains in a data-driven way. The posterior inference is conducted via a scalable variational Bayes algorithm. Simulation studies show that the domain adaptation enabled by the proposed method improves CSMF estimation and individual COD assignment. We also illustrate and evaluate the method using a validation dataset. The article concludes with a discussion of limitations and future directions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The long human lifespan enables long run forecasts of population size and age distribution. New methods include biodemographic research on upper limits to life expectancy and incorporation of early experiences affecting later life mortality such as smoking, obesity, and childhood health shocks. Some fertility forecasts incorporate education and quantum‐tempo insights. Statistical time series and Bayesian methods generate probabilistic forecasts. Yet recent decades have brought surprising changes in the economy, natural environment, and vital rates. In these changing circumstances we need new methods and the increasing use of probabilistic models and Bayesian methods incorporating outside information. The increasing use of microsimulation combined with aggregate forecasting methods is a very promising development enabling more detailed and heterogeneous forecasts. Some new uses of stochastic forecasts are interesting in themselves. Probabilistic mortality forecasts are used in finance and insurance, and a new Longevity Swap industry has been built on them. Random sample paths used to generate stochastic population forecasts can stress‐test public pension designs for fiscal stability and intergenerational equity. Population forecasting a few decades ago was a dull backwater of demographic research, but now it is increasingly important and is full of intellectual and technical challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interactions between density and environmental conditions have important effects on vital rates and consequently on population dynamics and can take complex pathways in species whose demography is strongly influenced by social context, such as the African lion, Panthera leo. In populations of such species, the response of vital rates to density can vary depending on the social structure (e.g. effects of group size or composition).However, studies assessing density dependence in populations of lions and other social species have seldom considered the effects of multiple socially explicit measures of density, and—more particularly for lions—of nomadic males. Additionally, vital‐rate responses to interactions between the environment and various measures of density remain largely uninvestigated.To fill these knowledge gaps, we aimed to understand how a socially and spatially explicit consideration of density (i.e. at the local scale) and its interaction with environmental seasonality affect vital rates of lions in the Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. We used a Bayesian multistate capture–recapture model and Bayesian generalized linear mixed models to estimate lion stage‐specific survival and between‐stage transition rates, as well as reproduction probability and recruitment, while testing for season‐specific effects of density measures at the group and home‐range levels.We found evidence for several such effects. For example, resident‐male survival increased more strongly with coalition size in the dry season compared with the wet season, and adult‐female abundance affected subadult survival negatively in the wet season, but positively in the dry season. Additionally, while our models showed no effect of nomadic males on adult‐female survival, they revealed strong effects of nomads on key processes such as reproduction and takeover dynamics.Therefore, our results highlight the importance of accounting for seasonality and social context when assessing the effects of density on vital rates of Serengeti lions and of social species more generally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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This article, titled "Natural Recovery of a Coral Population After a Severe Typhoon in Taiwan," explores the recovery of a coral population (genus Pocillopora) following a typhoon in Taiwan. The study utilized long-term monitoring and found that there was a high initial recruitment of Pocillopora individuals, leading to the establishment of a juvenile population that rapidly developed into mature adults within six years. However, despite the emergence of a Pocillopora-dominated state on the reef, the population growth rate declined. The study emphasizes the importance of long-term data in understanding coral demographics. [Extracted from the article]

ABSTRACT Objective Methods Results Discussion To characterize mortality after hospital discharge in cohorts with and without anorexia nervosa (AN).We obtained data for all hospitalizations for psychiatric reasons in Canada (except Quebec) between April 1, 2006, and March 31, 2021 (n = 1.3 million admissions). Cases of AN were identified using ICD‐10 (F50.0 and F50.1) codes. First admissions during this interval for AN and other psychiatric conditions were linked to vital statistics data. Mortality was characterized through cross‐tabulation, Cox proportional hazards models, and competing cause regression.After adjustment for age and sex, there was no significant difference in mortality between AN and those with other psychiatric conditions (HR = 1.04; p = 0.644). Among AN admissions, 25% (95% CI 18.6–31.4) of deaths were attributed to psychiatric conditions (ICD‐F codes), with 88% of these (comprising 22% of all deaths in the AN group) having AN itself identified as the underlying cause of death. In contrast, only 8% of deaths among non‐AN admissions were attributed to a mental disorder.Prevention of premature mortality in the general psychiatric population emphasizes modification of metabolic (e.g., hyperlipidemia) and lifestyle‐related (e.g., sedentary behavior) risk factors. However, as AN itself makes a major contribution to mortality, specialized preventive strategies may be required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding populations' responses to environmental change is crucial for mitigating human‐induced disturbances. Here, we test hypotheses regarding how three essential components of demographic resilience (resistance, compensation and recovery) co‐vary along the distinct life histories of three lizard species exposed to variable, prescribed fire regimes. Using a Bayesian hierarchical framework, we estimate vital rates (survival, growth and reproduction) with 14 years of monthly individual‐level data and mark‐recapture models to parameterize stochastic integral projection models from five sites in Brazilian savannas, each historically subjected to different fire regimes. With these models, we investigate how weather, microclimate and ecophysiological traits of each species influence their vital rates, emergent life history traits and demographic resilience components in varying fire regimes. Overall, weather and microclimate are better predictors of the species' vital rates, rather than their ecophysiological traits. Our findings reveal that severe fire regimes increase populations' resistance but decrease compensation or recovery abilities. Instead, populations have higher compensatory and recovery abilities at intermediate degrees of fire severity. Additionally, we identify generation time and reproductive output as predictors of resilience trends across fire regimes and climate. Our analyses demonstrate that the probability and quantity of monthly reproduction are the proximal drivers of demographic resilience across the three species. Our findings suggest that populations surpass a tipping point in severe fire regimes and achieve an alternative stable state to persist. Thus, higher heterogeneity in fire regimes can increase the reproductive aspects and resilience of different populations and avoid high‐severity regimes that homogenize the environment. Despite being more resistant, species with long generation times and low reproductive output take longer to recover and cannot compensate as much as species with faster paces of life. We emphasize how reproductive constraints, such as viviparity and fixed clutch sizes, impact the ability of ectothermic populations to benefit and recover from disturbances, underscoring their relevance in conservation assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

GPS tags have become a common tool in ecological studies of animal behaviour and demography despite previous research indicating negative impacts on vital rates across a variety of taxa. Many researchers face tradeoffs when deciding whether they are an appropriate tool because GPS tags may impact vital rates, but they provide detailed data on movements and behaviour that often cannot be obtained in other ways. Using band recovery data, we evaluated the strength of effects induced by GPS tags on annual mortality of adult females across 13 waterfowl taxa, and examined whether taxa with a slower life-history strategy and larger body size were more resilient to GPS tag effects than their fast-lived counterparts with small body size. All species were exposed to hunting, which may interact with underlying processes affecting the impact of GPS tags on mortality, but also allowed for robust analysis of overall annual mortality. Hazard ratios, indicating the risk of death for individuals wearing GPS tags compared to those wearing only metal bands, ranged from 1.13 to 3.25 and the mean proportional difference in survival between marker types across species was 0.33. The magnitude of tag effects was surprisingly consistent across life-history tempo and body size, indicating that slower-lived species did not buffer the effect of wearing GPS tags. Our results highlight that even large, long-lived species, which are generally better at buffering their mortality against environmental adversity, are not immune to the effects GPS tags can have on survival and mortality. The results of our study emphasize the importance of testing for such effects across taxa in future research as technology advances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective Data Sources and Study Setting Study Design Data Collection/Extraction Methods Principal Findings Conclusion To evaluate if state death investigation systems affect the reporting of suicides, particularly when comparing medical examiners to coroners.We used restricted‐access state mortality data from National Vital Statistics System between the years 1959 to 2016. These data were matched with state‐level changes in death investigation systems reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention database on the Public Health Law Program: Coroner/ME Laws.We used difference‐in‐differences and event study methods for the analysis. We estimated the relative per capita changes in suicides, accidental deaths, and homicides when comparing coroner‐only states with other death investigation types. Sub‐analyses estimated differences by sex, race, and if coroners were required to receive training.Not Applicable.Coroners‐only states underreported suicides by 17.4% (p < 0.05) and performed 20.4% (p < 0.05) fewer autopsies compared to states with county coroners and a state medical examiner. This pattern is consistent by sex and race. Required coroner training did not affect death determination significantly.Coroners‐only states underreported suicides compared to states with county coroners and a state medical examiner. The disparity in the use of autopsies is a potential mechanism for underreporting of suicides by coroners. If all coroners‐only states adopted a state medical examiner, suicide reporting would increase by 2243–3100 deaths in the United States annually. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pregnancies ending before 26 weeks contribute 1% of births but 40% of infant deaths in the United States. The rate of these "periviable" births to non-Hispanic (NH) Black women exceeds four times that for NH whites. Small male periviable infants remain most likely to die. NH white periviable males weigh more than their NH Black counterparts. We argue that male infants born from twin gestations, in which one fetus died in utero (i.e., the vanishing twin syndrome), contribute to the disparity. We cannot directly test our argument because "vanishing" typically occurs before clinical recognition of pregnancy. We, however, describe and find associations that would emerge in vital statistics were our argument correct. Among male periviable singleton births from 288 monthly conception cohorts (January 1995 through December 2018), we found an average NH white advantage of 30 grams (759 grams versus 729 grams). Consistent with our argument, however, cohorts signaling relatively few survivors of the vanishing twin syndrome showed no disparity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2016, the Bloomberg Philanthropies Data for Health initiative assisted the Philippine Statistical Authority in implementing Iris, an automated coding software program that enables medical death certificates to be coded according to international standards. Iris was implemented to improve the quality, timeliness, and consistency of coded data as part of broader activities to strengthen the country's civil registration and vital statistics system. This study was conducted as part of the routine implementation of Iris to ensure that automatically coded cause of death data was of sufficient quality to be released and disseminated as national mortality statistics. Data from medical death certificates coded with Iris between 2017 and 2019 were analysed and evaluated for apparent errors and inconsistencies, and trends were examined for plausibility. Cause-specific mortality distributions were calculated for each of the 3 years and compared for consistency, and annual numeric and percentage changes were calculated and compared for all age groups. The typology, reasons, and proportions of records that could not be coded (Iris 'rejects') were also studied. Overall, the study found that the Philippine Statistical Authority successfully operates Iris. The cause-specific mortality fractions for the 20 leading causes of death showed reassuring stability after the introduction of Iris, and the type and proportion of rejects were similar to international experience. Broadly, this study demonstrates how an automated coding system can improve the accuracy and timeliness of cause of death data—providing critical country experiences to help build the evidence base on the topic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study aims to assess agricultural vulnerability in the context of climate change, focusing on the diverse districts of Odisha. Acknowledging that vulnerability is influenced by exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, our research incorporates the growth rate and instability of vital performance indicators to evaluate the relative vulnerability of each district. A key strength of this approach is the use of normalized indicators, weighted in accordance with the proportional acreage of major crops in each district relative to the state, culminating in a comprehensive vulnerability index through the aggregation of these weighted components. Our findings reveal significant variability in the vulnerability profiles across districts, thereby necessitating state-level intervention through tailored "Location Performance Vulnerability" based adaptation strategies. These strategies, including early weather warning systems, development of new and early maturing crop varieties, and adjustment of crop planting dates, are crucial for mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on agriculture. The study's methodology and findings offer significant contributions to the field, providing policymakers and stakeholders with a district-specific framework for climate change adaptation. This approach is especially relevant for the international academic and policy-making communities, as it highlights the importance of localized adaptation strategies in the broader context of global climate change resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: We assessed chronic liver disease (CLD)-related mortality in the U.S. using death data (2011–2021) obtained from National Vital Statistics System (NVSS). The average annual percentage change (AAPC) from the models selected by Joinpoint regression analysis over the pre-pandemic (2011–2019) and the 2019–2021 were reported because non-linear trend in death rates were observed over the 2011–2021. Liver-specific death was defined as an underlying cause of death and Chronic liver disease (CLD)-related death was defined as any cause of death. During the pre-pandemic, age-standardized HCC- and cirrhosis-specific death rates were annually increased by AAPC = +1.18% (95% confidence interval, 0.34% to 2.03%) and AAPC = +1.95% (1.56% to 2.35%). In contrast, during the 2019–2021, the AAPC in age-standardized cirrhosis-specific death rate (per 100,000) accelerated by up to AAPC +11.25% (15.23 in 2019 to 18.86 in 2021) whereas that in age-standardized HCC-specific death rate slowed to -0.39 (-1.32% to 0.54%) (3.86 in 2019 to 3.84 in 2021). Compared to HCC-specific deaths, cirrhosis-specific deaths were more likely to be non-Hispanic white (72.4% vs. 62.0%) and non-Hispanic American Indian and Alaska native (AIAN) (2.2% vs. 1.1%) and have NAFLD (45.3% vs. 12.5%) and ALD (27.6% vs. 22.0%). During the 2019–2021, the age-standardized HCV- and HBV-related death rate stabilized, whereas the age-standardized NAFLD- and ALD-related deaths rate increased to 20.16 in 2021 (AAPC = +12.13% [7.76% to 16.68%]) and to 14.95 in 2021 (AAPC = +18.30% [13.76% to 23.03%]), which were in contrast to much smaller incremental increases during the pre-pandemic (AAPC = +1.82% [1.29% to 2.35%] and AAPC = +4.54% [3.97% to 5.11%]), respectively). The most pronounced rise in the age-standardized NAFLD-related death rates during the pandemic was observed among AIAN (AAPC = +25.38%), followed by non-Hispanic White female (AAPC = +14.28%), whereas the age-standardized ALD-related death rates during the pandemic were highest among AIAN (AAPC = +40.65%), followed by non-Hispanic Black female (AAPC = +26.79%). Conclusions: COVID-19 pandemic had a major negative impact on cirrhosis-specific and CLD-related mortality in the U.S. with significant racial and gender disparities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Human‐caused mortality can be pervasive and even highly selective for individuals in groups of cooperative breeders. Many studies of cooperative breeders, however, do not address human‐caused mortality. Similarly, studies focused on the effects of human‐caused mortality on wildlife populations often do not consider the ecology of cooperative breeders. We searched the literature and identified 58 studies where human‐caused mortality affected a group characteristic, vital rate, or population state of a cooperative breeder. Of studies reporting population growth or decline, 80% reported a link between human‐caused mortality and population declines in cooperative breeders. Such studies often did not identify the mechanism behind population declines, but 28% identified concurrent declines in adult survival and another 21% reported concurrent declines in recruitment or reproduction. There was little overlap between the cooperative breeding and human‐caused mortality literatures, limiting our ability to accrue knowledge. Future work would be beneficial if it (i) identified the vital rate(s) causing population declines, (ii) leveraged management actions such as lethal removal to ask questions about the ecology of group‐living in cooperative breeders, and (iii) used insights from cooperative breeding theory to inform management actions and conservation of group‐living species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under global change, the impact of seed banks on evolutionary rescue is uncertain. They buffer plant populations from demographic and genetic stochasticity but extend generation time and can become a reservoir of maladapted alleles. We built analytical and individual-based models to predict the effect of seed banks on the persistence of small annual plant populations facing an abrupt or sustained directional change in uni- or multivariate trait optima. Demogenetic dynamics predict that under most scenarios seed banks increase the lag yet enhance persistence to 200–250 years by absorbing demographic losses. Simulations indicate that the seed bank has a minimal impact on the genetic skew, although we suggest that this result could depend on the fitness component under selection. Our multivariate model reveals that by enlarging and reshaping the G matrix, seed banks can diminish the impact of mutational correlation and even accelerate adaptation under antagonistic pleiotropy relative to populations without a bank. We illustrate how the magnitude of optimum fluctuations, type and degree of optimum change, selection strength, and vital rates are weights that tip the scales determining persistence. Finally, our work highlights that migration from the past is not maladaptative when optimum fluctuations are large enough to create stepping stones to the new optimum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Executive Summary: This paper explores how qualitative information may be used to enhance understanding and inform recommendations for improved accounting of migrant deaths along the Texas-Mexico border. While border crossing related deaths affect jurisdictions throughout the US's Southwestern border states and Northern Mexican states, Texas has unique challenges that merit specific examination. In short, the management and investigation of unidentified migrant decedents in Texas is severely fragmented and often noncompliant with Texas Criminal Code Procedure. I explore a way to improve accounting of migrant deaths leveraging qualitative information, local newspaper articles from South Texas and Northern Mexico, by using descriptive summaries coupled with Sankey Diagrams and a programmatic technique, qualitative spatial representation (QSR). QSR enabled me to identify under-recognized stakeholders (South Texas locals, Mexican consulates) and under-supported counties (i.e., those with migrant deaths that do not share a border directly with Mexico). I found that local English-language newspapers obscured the prevalence of migrant deaths and that their narrative tone of "business as usual" normalized the occurrence of such deaths. The Spanish-language articles better represented the diversity of agencies and individuals that were involved in the various aspects of migrant remains management and forensic investigation, most notably residents of South Texas themselves (or situational participants who first found the remains) and Mexican consulates. Finally, I noted that the collaborations among Texas counties and between Texan and Mexican jurisdictions, when they were described in the newspapers, highlighted that the phenomenon of migrant deaths penetrates beyond the dividing line of the Rio Grande/Río Bravo River. Migrant deaths must be accounted for in a way that reflects a regional experience in which people may perish as far as ~100 miles into Texas' interior. Considering these observations, I have two policy recommendations. First, the Office of the Texas Governor should establish funds distinct from the Operation Lone Star program for the management of unidentified human remains. Currently, grants through the Operation Lone Star Program are the only funds available in Texas to support identification of migrant decedents. However, this program is explicitly designed to further border security operations in the state of Texas, which can contradict efforts around recovery and identification. The documentation and forensic investigation of the unidentified deceased can be eclipsed or neglected under the larger deterrence aims of Operation Lone Star. Second, to improve accounting and increase documentation of migrant deaths, a Regional Identification Center should be established in South Texas. Not every county in Texas has or has access to a Medical Examiner's office, including the means to transport and pay for autopsy or other forensic services. The Center would provide training, store extra equipment such as mobile refrigerated morgues, and hire personnel to inventory cases, and report information to the state (e.g., vital statistics) and to foreign consulates. A Regional Identification Center would counteract the challenges highlighted in the local newspaper summaries and QSR by decreasing the isolation of counties experiencing migrant deaths and serve as a documentary and communication hub for stakeholders in Texas and Mexico. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It remains unclear whether recent changes in the prognosis and management of patients with trisomy 13 impact patient survival. We investigated changes in survival of patients with trisomy 13 in Japan. Data from the Vital Statistics Database in Japan was retrieved to examine the association of sex, surgical history, and years of birth and death with changes in survival patterns in 1164 patients with trisomy 13 between 1995 and 2021. The rates of deaths due to trisomy 13 increased from 9.8% to 23.1% in those over 1 year of age and from 7.3% to 19.2% in those within 24 h of birth between 1995 and 2021. The median survival time was longer in 2009–2021 than in 1996–2008 (40 vs. 84 days, p < 0.001). The median survival time and the rate of patients with surgical history increased from 91 days and 16.0% in 1996–2008 to 179 days and 28.0% in 2009–2021, respectively. Median survival time among patients with trisomy 13 has increased over the last 26 years, with almost 1 in 3 patients currently surviving for more than 1 year. The increased surgical intervention rate might have contributed to this improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is widespread evidence that plants can facilitate associated species through microclimate moderation. These effects can act locally, by increasing vital rates via direct effects on the conditions experienced by the beneficiary, or at the landscape scale, by enhancing population persistence via environmental heterogeneity and connectivity. Despite linkages between microclimate moderation and the consequences of climate change, few frameworks apply the concepts of facilitation, connectivity, and heterogeneity through this lens. We highlight the utility of expanding current research on facilitators to better understand how their ability to buffer abiotic conditions, promote heterogeneity, and enhance connectivity could shape beneficiaries' response to climate change at multiple scales. We additionally suggest tools and methods for enhanced incorporation of facilitators into models of species response, centered around the integration of facilitator‐moderated microclimates and species responses with the goal of better defining the scenarios under which facilitators could mitigate the effects of climate change. As climates continue to change, the consequences of microclimate moderation at local and landscape scales will become increasingly important to predict, understand, and manage biodiversity response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Fluoroquinolone‐related hypoglycaemia is rare but may become clinically relevant in individuals at high baseline hypoglycaemic risk, such as patients with diabetes using sulphonylureas. Our population‐based cohort study assessed whether fluoroquinolones are associated with an increased risk of severe hypoglycaemia compared with amoxicillin among patients treated with sulphonylureas. Materials and Methods: Using the UK's Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum linked to hospitalization and vital statistics data, we assembled a base cohort of patients who initiated second‐generation sulphonylureas (1998‐2020). The study cohort included patients initiating either fluoroquinolones or amoxicillin while on sulphonylureas. Using an intent‐to‐treat exposure definition, we assessed the 30‐day risk of severe hypoglycaemia (hospitalization with or death because of hypoglycaemia) associated with fluoroquinolones compared with amoxicillin. Cox models estimated hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of severe hypoglycaemia after 1:5 matching on previous sulphonylurea use and propensity scores. Secondary analyses were stratified by demographics and glycated haemoglobin. Results: Overall, 143 417 patients initiated fluoroquinolones (n = 13 123) or amoxicillin (n = 130 294) while on sulphonylureas. Compared with amoxicillin, fluoroquinolones were not associated with the risk of severe hypoglycaemia (HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.91‐1.50). Fluoroquinolones were associated with an increased risk in patients <65 years (HR, 2.90; 95% CI, 1.41‐5.97) but not in those ≥65 years (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.79‐1.35) in stratified analyses. There was no evidence of effect modification by sex or glycated haemoglobin. Conclusions: In patients using second‐generation sulphonylureas, fluoroquinolones were not associated with an increased risk of severe hypoglycaemia compared with amoxicillin. An increased risk among younger adults is possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maternal mortality data and review are important indicators of the effectiveness of maternity healthcare systems and an impetus for action. Recently, a rising incidence of maternal mortality in high income countries has been reported. Various publications have raised concern about data collection methods at country level, as this usually relies mainly on national vital statistics. It is therefore essential that the collected data are complete and accurate and conform to international definitions and disease classification. Accurate data and review can only be truly available when an Enhanced Obstetric Surveillance System is in place. EBCOG calls for action by national societies to work closely with their respective ministries of health to ensure that high quality surveillance systems are in place. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Alcohol use is involved in a large proportion of homicides and suicides each year in the U.S., but there is limited evidence on how policies targeting alcohol influence violence in the U.S. context. Extant studies generally focus on individual policies in isolation of each other. This study examines the impacts of changes in states' alcohol policy restrictions on overall homicide and suicide rates and firearm-related homicide and suicide rates using a holistic measure of states' alcohol policy environments. Using a composite measure of state-level alcohol policies (Alcohol Policy Scale) and data from the National Vital Statistics System from 2002 to 2018, this study applied a Bayesian time series model to estimate the impacts of alcohol policy changes on overall and firearm-involved homicide and suicide rates. The analysis was performed in 2023 and 2024. A 1 SD change in the Alcohol Policy Scale was associated with a 6% decline in homicide rates both overall (incident rate ratio=0.94; 95% credible interval = 0.89, 1.00) and for firearm homicides specifically (incident rate ratio=0.94, 95% CI=0.88, 1.01). There was no clear association of alcohol policy with suicides. The model predicts that a nationwide increase in alcohol restrictions equivalent to a shift from the 25th to 75th percentile of the scale's distribution would result in almost 1,200 fewer homicides annually. Increases in the restrictiveness of state-level alcohol policies are associated with reductions in homicides. More restrictive alcohol policy environments may offer an opportunity to reduce homicides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major impediment to wildlife conservation and management, from a quantitative perspective, is dealing with high degrees of uncertainty associated with population estimates. Integrated population models (IPMs) can help alleviate that challenge, but they are often limited to narrow spatial or temporal windows owing to the financial and logistical burdens of acquiring requisite datasets. To expand the spatiotemporal scope of practical IPM implementation, we developed a novel method that expresses demographic relatedness among sampled and unsampled locations using geographic principles of spatial autocorrelation.We interpolated demographic parameters at unsampled locations using parameter estimates from data‐informed locations. Errors attributable to the interpolative process were corrected using a joint likelihood and locally recorded count data ('cheaper' and broadly distributed). We evaluated the spatially interpolated IPM (SIIPM) for precision and accuracy under variable levels of spatial autocorrelation using simulated data and a Leave‐One‐Out Cross‐Validation (LOOCV) technique. Conventional IPMs and state‐space models (SSM) were fit to the same simulated datasets to provide a comparative assessment of the novel method. In a final, empirical demonstration we fit the SIIPM to data collected from Greater Sage‐Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; sage‐grouse) populations located in Nevada, U.S.A. during 2013–2021.SIIPMs outperformed conventional IPMs when fit to data possessing moderate‐to‐high levels of spatial autocorrelation. Under moderate levels of autocorrelation, the average improvement in parameter estimation was 13.6% for survival, 65.3% for recruitment and 23.7% for rate of population change (λ). When spatial autocorrelation was low, the SIIPM still outperformed contemporary approaches in areas that were geographically close (<67 km) to sampling locations. Under low autocorrelation‐near distance scenarios, we observed SIIPM parameters that were 30.8% (recruitment), 32.5% (λ; IPM comparison) and 54.0% (λ; SSM comparison) more precise than contemporary models.Spatial autocorrelation is often assumed but rarely tested when comparing population dynamics across regions of large geographic extent. We demonstrated that SIIPMs can improve precision of species' vital rate estimation when extrapolating model inference beyond populations for which long‐term monitoring data exists. Specific to sage‐grouse, these results support previous conclusions of broad‐scale spatial autocorrelation in population dynamics and a reproductive‐survival trade‐off previously documented at smaller scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the demographic drivers of reintroduced and translocated populations is critical for species establishment and persistence. Given the large number of resources required to conduct ongoing reintroduction and reinforcement programs, additional information on population responses to management practices could help identify key actions that best benefit a species while ensuring economic feasibility. An integrated population model (IPM) can be used to assess and forecast the demographic consequences of different management practices and the interrelationship between management effects, population dynamics, and environmental change. We used an IPM to inform the potential impacts of nest management practices and global climate change on the vital rates of the Texas nesting colony of the endangered Kemp's ridley sea turtle. We used the IPM to estimate population parameters including adult survival, population growth rate, and abundance of nesting females in Texas. Additionally, given potential future scenarios for management and environmental change, we used the IPM to forecast population change and estimate the probability of persistence of the Texas population under future environmental and management scenarios. Future scenarios for nest management that had some level of management (i.e., not all nests were left in situ) resulted in population growth rates that were likely stable or increasing. Scenarios in which all nests were left in situ resulted in stable or decreasing population growth rates as well as a probability of extirpation from Texas >1 (p(N = 0 in 2100) = 0.25–0.72). Despite uncertainty in forecasted abundance and population growth rates under all scenarios, our model still predicted stable or increasing population growth rates with a continuation of current nest management practices. In contrast, we found that reduced population growth was expected with reduced nest management effort, and population decline and extirpation was expected with no management. Our IPM framework provides an example of how future management scenarios can be evaluated critically to determine population changes through time under future environmental uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Noroviruses (NoVs) are the most significant viral pathogens associated with waterborne and foodborne outbreaks of nonbacterial acute gastroenteritis in humans worldwide. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence and diversity of NoVs contaminated in the environmental water in Chiang Mai, Thailand. A total of 600 environmental water samples were collected from ten sampling sites in Chiang Mai from July 2020 to December 2022. The presence of NoV genogroups I (GI), GII, and GIV were examined using real-time RT-PCR assay. The genotype of the virus was determined by nucleotide sequencing and phylogenetic analysis. The results showed that NoV GI and GII were detected at 8.5% (51/600) and 11.7% (70/600) of the samples tested, respectively. However, NoV GIV was not detected in this study. NoV circulated throughout the year, with a higher detection rate during the winter season. Six NoV GI genotypes (GI.1-GI.6) and eight NoV GII genotypes (GII.2, GII.3, GII.7, GII.8, GII.10, GII.13, GII.17, and GII.21) were identified. Among 121 NoV strains detected, GII.17 was the most predominant genotype (24.8%, 30 strains), followed by GII.2 (21.5%, 26 strains), GI.3 (17.4%, 21 strains), and GI.4 (16.5%, 20 strains). Notably, NoV GII.3, GII.7, GII.8, and GII.10 were detected for the first time in water samples in this area. This study provides insight into the occurrence and seasonal pattern of NoV along with novel findings of NoV strains in environmental water in Thailand during the COVID-19 outbreak. Our findings emphasize the importance of further surveillance studies to monitor viral contamination in environmental water. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Increasing reliance on numerical simulation models to help inform management and restoration choices benefits from careful consideration of critical early steps in model development. Along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico, the eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica fulfills important ecological and economic roles. Using the eastern oyster as an example, we draw on several recent frameworks outlining best practices for model development and application for restoration, conservation, and management. Methods: We identify priority model questions, outline a conceptual ecological model (CEM) to guide numerical model development, and use this framework to identify uncertainties and research needs. Result: The CEM uses a nested design, identifying explicit vital rates, processes, attributes, and outcomes for the species (oysters), population, and metapopulation (i.e., network of populations) levels in response to drivers of species, population, and metapopulation changes and changing environmental factors. Most management actions related to oyster restoration and harvest affect population attributes directly, but many coastal management actions and changes (i.e., climate change and coastal and water resource engineering) impact environmental factors that alter vital rates and attributes of oysters, populations, and metapopulations. Conclusion: Investment in studies targeting individual oyster‐ and population‐level multi‐stressor responses (filtration, respiration, growth, and reproduction) and improving hydrodynamic and environmental models targeting drivers that influence metapopulation vital rates and attributes (i.e., connectivity and substrate persistence) would contribute to reducing uncertainties. Development of numerical models covering the entire oyster life cycle and connectivity of populations using hydrodynamic models of current and predicted conditions to provide key abiotic and biotic factors influencing larval movement, recruitment, and on‐reef oyster vital rates would assist in balancing the goals of conservation, restoration, and fisheries management of this foundational estuarine species. Impact statementManaging fisheries species of conservation, production, and habitat value relies increasingly on the development of numerical models. We develop a tiered conceptual ecosystem model to guide model development for the eastern oyster and to highlight key uncertainties in vital rates and outcomes. This tiered approach provides a flexible framework to guide numerical model development, and highlight key uncertainties influencing modeled outputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide new evidence on the causal effect of higher education on mortality. Our empirical strategy exploits the reduction in college openings introduced by the Pinochet regime after the 1973 coup in Chile, which led to a sharp downward kink in college enrollment among those cohorts reaching college age in the following years. Using administrative data from the vital statistics, we document an upward kink in the age-specific yearly mortality rate of individuals in the affected cohorts. We estimate a negative effect of college on mortality between ages 34–74, which is larger for men, but also sizable for women. Individuals in the affected cohorts experience worse labor market outcomes, are more likely to be enrolled in the public health system, and report lower consumption of health services. This suggests that economic disadvantage and limited access to care play an important mediating role in the link between higher education and mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction. Childhood infectious diseases have been a significant medical problem, with a global increase in recent years. Modern diagnostic methods and new vaccinations are available. Poland is part of the WHO-coordinated global measles and rubella elimination program. Controversy surrounds mandatory and recommended vaccinations in Poland. There has been a concerning increase in the abandonment of vaccinating children, leading to a resurgence of infectious diseases. In 2024, the WHO reported a significant increase in measles cases in the European region, including in Poland. It's crucial to remind people of these diseases and warn them about the complications they bring. Aim of study. The aim of this study is to investigate the increasing occurrence of infectious diseases in childhood and examine the correlation with declining vaccination rates across society. Materials and methods. An unsystematic review of scientific literature was conducted, employing specific keywords such as „measles,” „pertussis,” „rubella,” „infectious diseases,” „vaccination,” and „hib.” The review was executed on the PubMed database, analyzing a total of 59 sources published until the conclusion of 2024. Conclusions. To control and eliminate infectious diseases, it is vital to maintain and improve vaccination rates. Policymakers and healthcare providers should prioritize immunization programs and address barriers to vaccine access. Further research is crucial to develop comprehensive strategies for increasing vaccination coverage and understanding vaccine-preventable diseases in modern public health challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precise estimates of the impact of famine on infant and child mortality are rare due to lack of representative data. Using vital statistics reports on the Netherlands for 1935–47, we examine the impact of the Dutch famine (November 1944 to May 1945) on age-specific mortality risk and cause of death in four age groups (stillbirths, <1 year, 1–4, 5–14) in the three largest famine-affected cities and the remainder of the country. Mortality during the famine is compared with the pre-war period January 1935 to April 1940, the war period May 1940 to October 1944, and the post-war period June 1945 to December 1947. The famine's impact was most visible in infants because of the combined effects of a high absolute death rate and a threefold increase in proportional mortality, mostly from gastrointestinal conditions. These factors make infant mortality the most sensitive indicator of famine severity in this setting and a candidate marker for comparative use in future studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demographers have developed a number of methods for expanding abridged mortality data into a complete schedule; however, these can be usefully applied only under certain conditions, and the presence or absence of one or more additional sources of incompleteness can degrade their relative accuracy, lead to implausible profiles, or even cause the methods to fail. We develop a new method for expanding an abridged schedule based on calibrated splines; this method is accurate and robust in the presence of errors in mortality rates, missing values, and truncation. We compare its performance with the performance of existing methods for expanding abridged data and find that it is superior to current methods at producing accurate and plausible complete schedules over a broad range of data-quality conditions. The method when applied is a valuable addition to existing tools for estimating mortality, especially for small nations, countries with incomplete vital statistics, and subnational populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the passage of the Wild Free‐Roaming Horses and Burros Act of 1971, federal agencies have been responsible for managing free‐roaming equids in the United States. Over the last 20 years, management has been hampered by direct opposition from advocacy groups, budget limitations, and a decline in the public's willingness to adopt free‐roaming horses (Equus caballus). As a result, free‐roaming equid numbers have increased to >3 times the targeted goal of 26,785 (horses and burros [E. asinus] combined), the cumulative sum of the appropriate management levels (AML) for all 177 designated herd management areas (HMA) managed by the Bureau of Land Management. This increase is one of the causes of greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) population declines, owing to habitat alteration from free‐roaming equids exacerbated by ongoing drought. To evaluate potential demographic mechanisms influencing these declines, we compiled survival data from 4 studies in central Wyoming, USA, including 995 adult female (first‐year breeders or older) sage‐grouse during the breeding season, 1,075 nests, 372 broods, and 136 juveniles (i.e., overwinter survival for fledged young), from 2008–2022. During this period, we also obtained population information for free‐roaming horses from 9 HMAs used by individual grouse in our sample. Population estimates of free‐roaming horses for these HMAs ranged from 59% to 7 times of the maximum appropriate management level (AMLmax). Sage‐grouse monitored outside of HMAs represented control populations and, because we assumed they were not exposed to populations of free‐roaming horses, we set values of AMLmax to zero for all grouse located outside of HMAs. To evaluate whether free‐roaming horses were negatively affecting sage‐grouse, we modeled daily survival of breeding age females, nest, broods, and juveniles. There was strong or moderate evidence that overabundant free‐roaming horses negatively affected nest, brood, and juvenile survival. When horse abundance increased from AMLmax to 3 times AMLmax, survival was reduced 8.1%, 18.3%, 18.2%, and 18.2% for nests, early broods (≤20 days after hatch), late broods (>20 days to 35 days after hatch), and juveniles, respectively. These results indicate increasing free‐roaming horse numbers affected vital rates for important life stages of sage‐grouse, and that maintaining free‐roaming horse numbers below AMLmax would reduce negative effects to sage‐grouse populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study has addressed the management of Ceratitis capitata (Mediterranean fly) in Ecuador, focused on mitigating the impact on fruit crops under the influence of climate change and variations in agricultural practices. By using neutrosophic statistics, the study has modeled uncertainty in climatic and agricultural variables to improve the prediction and adaptability of management strategies. Integrated strategies have been proposed, which have included biological control, cultural management, and the use of insecticides, highlighting the effectiveness of adapting management practices based on neutrosophic analysis. The results indicated that the adaptations of strategies, provided by neutrosophic statistics, allowed an effective response to environmental variations, to maintain the effectiveness of pest control in the long term. In conclusion, the combination of management strategies with neutrosophic statistics is vital for effective control of Ceratitis capitata, by facilitating a proactive and adaptive approach in the face of changing conditions, to strengthen agricultural resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Child health is conditioned by the circumstances of pregnancy, childbirth, and early life. Objective: To describe the maternal and neonatal characteristics of live births (LBs) in the Information System on Live Births of Santa Catarina (SC), Brazil. Materials and methods: A cross-sectional study describedthe maternal and neonatal characteristics of 940,059 LBs, from 2010 to 2019. Pearson’s chi-square test and Fisher’s exact test were conducted, with a statistical significance level of p < 0.05. Results: The mean values of maternal age, number of live children, and number of fetal deaths as well as abortions were 27.1 years, 0.9, and 0.2, respectively. The averages of the number of gestation weeks, number of prenatal consultations, the start date of the prenatal care, and birth weight were 38.5 weeks, 8.1 months, 2.5 monthsand 3,217.1 grams, respectively. Low birth weight (LBW) was prevalent among mothers without education (p < 0.001), including those without prenatal visits (p < 0.001). A higher prevalence of being underweight was observed among female neonates (p < 0.001) and with a maternal age of ≥ 40 years (10.8%; p < 0.001) compared to newborns with good vitality. Newborns with good vitality had a low prevalence of underweight (p < 0.001). The frequency of the variables studied increased, comparing the beginning and end of the period and whether the differences are statistically significant. Conclusions: The study draws attention to the need for interventions to improve the indicators that determine LBW.

Annually, Sierra Leone records an estimated 301 human fatalities due to rabies. Canine vaccination is crucial for rabies prevention and control efforts. However, considerable variability exists in vaccination rates. Reasons for this variation remain unclear. We conducted a cross-sectional study across 2,558 dog-owning households (HHs) to provide insights into factors influencing canine vaccination for targeted prevention and control towards elimination by 2030. First, we described dog ownership practices, then built a probabilistic model to understand factors associated with dog vaccination, and finally used a spatial scan statistic to identify spatial clusters where vaccination rates were low. Our results indicated that only 14% (358/2,558) of participating HHs had fully vaccinated their dogs against rabies. The probability of dog vaccination increased when comparing civil servants to private workers/artisans, with an Odds Ratio(OR) of 1.14 (95% credible interval (Crl) of 0.82–1.56), residing in locations with a veterinary establishment vs. none (OR = 6.43, 95% Crl (4.97–8.35), providing care to dogs vs. allowing dogs to roam freely (OR = 2.38, 95% Crl(1.80–3.17) and owning a single dog vs multiple dogs (OR = 1.20, 95 Crl (0.92–1.56). Conversely, there was a decrease in the estimated probability of vaccination when comparing dog owners located in rural vs. urban areas (OR = 0.58, CrI 95% (0.43–0.78). Latent understanding, a measure of overall understanding of rabies virus, which we estimated using participant education levels and responses to questions about rabies epidemiology, was also an important predictor of vaccination probability (OR = 1.44, 95% Crl (1.04, 2.07). The spatial analysis identified high-risk clusters for low vaccination in the cities of Mayamba, with a radius of 40 km, a relative risk (RR) of 1.10, and Bo, with a radius of 19.9 km with RR of 1.11. These data do not support Sierra Leone reaching the 2030 goal of human rabies elimination caused by dogs. Our study highlights a critical need for public outreach and education, improved vaccination rates, increased accessibility to veterinary services, and targeted interventions in Bo and Mayamba to support rabies prevention and control efforts. Author summary: Canine vaccination plays a vital role in rabies prevention and control efforts; however, significant variability exists in vaccination rates across Sierra Leone. To address this issue, we conducted a cross-sectional study involving 2,558 dog-owning households to understand the factors influencing canine vaccination and identify areas with low vaccination rates. Our findings revealed that vaccination probability increased among civil servants compared to private workers/artisans, those residing in areas with veterinary establishments, those providing care to dogs, and those owning a single dog. Conversely, vaccination probability decreased among dog owners in rural areas compared to urban areas. Latent understanding, a measure of overall understanding of rabies virus, which we estimated using participant education levels and responses to questions about rabies epidemiology, was also an important predictor of vaccination probability. Spatial analysis identified high-risk clusters for low vaccination rates in Mayamba and Bo. These findings underscore the urgent need for public outreach, education initiatives, improved vaccination rates, enhanced veterinary accessibility, and targeted interventions in Bo and Mayamba to combat rabies effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global population health during the COVID-19 pandemic is poorly understood because of weak mortality monitoring in low-and middle-income countries. High-quality survey data on 765,180 individuals, representative of one-fourth of India's population, uncover patterns missed by incomplete vital statistics and disease surveillance. Compared to 2019, life expectancy at birth was 2.6 years lower and mortality was 17% higher in 2020, implying 1.19 million excess deaths in 2020. Life expectancy declines in India were larger and had a younger age profile than in high-income countries. Increases in mortality were greater than expected based on observed seroprevalence and international infection fatality rates, most prominently among the youngest and older age groups. In contrast to global patterns, females in India experienced a life expectancy decline that was 1 year larger than losses for males. Marginalized social groups experienced greater declines than the most privileged social group. These findings uncover large and unequal mortality impacts during the pandemic in the world's most populous country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The COVID‐19 pandemic was accompanied by social and economic changes previously associated with fertility delay and reduction, sparking widespread discussion of a "baby bust" in the United States. We examine fertility trends using restricted vital statistics data from California, a diverse population of 40 million, contributing 12 percent of U.S. births. Using time series models that account for longer‐run fertility trends, we observe modest, short‐term reductions in births from mid‐2020 through early 2021. Birth counts in subsequent months matched or even eased the pace of fertility decline since the 2008 recession and are unlikely a function of the pandemic alone. Responses to the pandemic were heterogeneous. Fertility declined markedly among the foreign‐born population, largely driven by changes in net migration. Among the U.S.‐born population, the short‐term pandemic‐attributable reductions were largest among older, highly educated people, suggesting mechanisms of fertility reduction disparately accessible to those with the most resources. We find no evidence of a strong population fertility response to the pandemic's accompanying employment shock, providing additional evidence of a growing divide between macroeconomic conditions and fertility patterns in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Foreign-born populations in the United States have markedly increased, yet cancer trends remain unexplored. Survey-based Population-Adjusted Rate Calculator (SPARC) is a new tool for evaluating nativity differences in cancer mortality. Methods Using SPARC, we calculated 3-year (2016-2018) age-adjusted mortality rates and rate ratios for common cancers by sex, age group, race and ethnicity, and nativity. Trends by nativity were examined for the first time for 2006-2018. Traditional cancer statistics draw populations from decennial censuses. However, nativity-stratified populations are from the American Community Surveys, thus involve sampling errors. To rectify this, SPARC employed bias-corrected estimators. Death counts came from the National Vital Statistics System. Results Age-adjusted mortality rates were higher among US-born populations across nearly all cancer types, with the largest US-born, foreign-born difference observed in lung cancer among Black women (rate ratio = 3.67, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.37 to 4.00). The well-documented White–Black differences in breast cancer mortality existed mainly among US-born women. For all cancers combined, descending trends were more accelerated for US-born compared with foreign-born individuals in all race and ethnicity groups with changes ranging from –2.6% per year in US-born Black men to stable (statistically nonsignificant) among foreign-born Black women. Pancreas and liver cancers were exceptions with increasing, stable, or decreasing trends depending on nativity and race and ethnicity. Notably, foreign-born Black men and foreign-born Hispanic men did not show a favorable decline in colorectal cancer mortality. Conclusions Although all groups show beneficial cancer mortality trends, those with higher rates in 2006 have experienced sharper declines. Persistent disparities between US-born and foreign-born individuals, especially among Black people, necessitate further investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Yanomami population, residing in Brazil's largest indigenous reserve in the Amazon Rainforest, face significant health challenges exacerbated by external threats such as infectious diseases, malnutrition, and mercury contamination from illegal mining. These issues, coupled with inadequate healthcare provision, have led to an alarming increase in mortality rates and potentially threaten the long-term survival of the Yanomami community. This ecological study utilized demographic data from the Special Secretariat of Indigenous Health to explore the demographic evolution and natural increase of the Yanomami Indigenous population in Brazil from 2003 to 2022. Employing population pyramids, crude rates of natural increase, the Mann-Kendall test for trend analysis, and linear regression modeling, the study analyzed vital statistics to forecast demographic trends, with analysis conducted using the R statistical software. Our findings showed a substantial growth of the Yanomami population, yet with a decreasing natural increase rate (τ = -0.33; p = 0.047), suggesting a shift toward population stagnation or decline within the next century. These results call for urgent, coordinated actions to address the complex demographic trends and health challenges faced by Yanomami Indigenous people, ensuring their demographic sustainability and the preservation of their traditional ways of life amidst ongoing environmental and health crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An understanding of vital rate contributions to population growth is necessary for species of conservation concern, such as greater sage‐grouse Centrocercus urophasianus. Sage‐grouse demographic rates are generally well described; however, a notable exception is juvenile survival during the post‐fledging period. We evaluated juvenile survival at two study areas in central and south–central Wyoming. We captured and monitored 124 juvenile sage‐grouse (77 females and 47 males) in 2017–2019 in the central Wyoming study area and 68 (29 females and 39 males) in 2020–2021 in the south–central Wyoming study area. Monthly survival generally increased from September to March in each year and study area. In both study areas, we found no evidence that monthly mortality risk differed between male and female juvenile sage‐grouse. In central Wyoming, seven‐month survival estimates from September to March were 0.28 (85% CI: 0.18–0.44) from 2017–2018, 0.28 (85% CI: 0.20–0.39) from 2018–2019, and 0.43 (85% CI: 0.34–0.55) from 2019–2020. In south‐central Wyoming, survival estimates were 0.34 (85% CI: 0.25–0.47) from 2020–2021 and 0.78 (85% CI: 0.68–0.90) from 2021–2022. Overall, we found evidence that body condition at time of capture and weather (temperature and precipitation) during the pre‐fledging period influenced juvenile mortality risk, but the most supported intrinsic and extrinsic factors varied between study areas. Our results provide additional estimates of juvenile survival that will be useful for understanding sage‐grouse demography. However, the spatial and temporal variation in juvenile survival that we documented should be accounted for when evaluating how management actions may influence sage‐grouse populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wild vertebrates usually avoid ground disturbed by humans with uncertain effects on their distribution and density. We report on a natural experiment that confirms and extends previous conclusions about how the local distribution of capercaillie is affected by track‐based disturbance. We surveyed the birds' droppings in two periods, before and after a predicted increase in disturbance adjacent to an expanding Scottish village, and model the probability of finding droppings in relation to period plus two disturbance gradients – distance to a much disturbed 'entry zone' with a high density of tracks lying adjacent to the village, plus distance to the nearest track. Throughout the study, no droppings were found within the entry zone and their density was depressed up to 400 m from it. Density of droppings was also depressed within 100–120 m of tracks but, compared to a notional scenario without tracks, was threefold greater on ground 120–250 m from tracks. Although the number of cocks counted at the lek in spring showed a small increase, there was an almost threefold decline in the probability of finding capercaillie droppings on and within about 40 m of tracks. We infer that, after the development, birds were less likely to use or cross tracks in pursuit of their daily living requirements, with unknown consequences for their population dynamics and vital rates. Our results have implications for refuge design. Birds on roughly half of a 50 ha refuge should be undisturbed by direct effects of track‐based activities. However, birds shifting away from tracks may themselves cause local increases in density and associated, indirect disturbance such that a refuge would need to be over 300 ha to keep half of it undisturbed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The call for internationally comparable data on disability has been omnipresent in recent disability politics. Several attempts have been made to develop and implement a standardized approach toward disability statistics, with the Washington Group Short Census Questions (WGSQ) being the most prominent. How does this questionnaire 'measure' disability? How do disability statistics translate the diversity of lived experiences into 'objective' numbers? Combining a sociology of quantification and disability studies, this article focuses on the social practices of disability statistics that contribute to the generation of 'disability' as a social category. After contextualizing 'disability' in international organizations' discourses, it uses document analysis to empirically reconstruct statistical experts' recommendations regarding definition, operationalization, data collection, and processing. The analysis shows how binary categorical boundaries are (re)introduced and successively objectified during this process. It also unfolds a risk-based approach that underlies the WGSQ and deviates from a social model of disability. International Organizations like the United Nations use statistics to illustrate that disabled persons do not have the same opportunities as others. For most people, statistics simply mirror reality. However, the article shows that making statistics requires many activities, discussions, and decisions. The research looks in detail at a questionnaire developed by international experts. It shows how people are categorized as a 'person with disabilities' or a 'person without disabilities.' Today, many people and international organizations agree that the way society is built disables persons with impairments. However, this questionnaire does not cover this social dimension. This research is important because it shows that statistics are not politically neutral and have an impact on the lives of disabled persons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Survival through the larval phase is predicated on the probabilities of successful feeding, which dictates growth rates, and the probabilities of encountering predators. Here I perform a synthesis of feeding, growth, and mortality rates estimated during several studies from coastal Newfoundland, Canada, to provide a description of the probability distribution that can serve as a foundation of the expected distribution of vital rates. The standardized observations clearly follow that of skewed distributions, appropriately fit to a probability gamma distribution, with feeding demonstrating a stronger degree of skewness than either mortality or growth, possibly because each vital rate integrates prey–predator interactions over different time scales. Commonality in the underlying form of the distribution of vital rates in larval fish, along with clear functional relationships between gamma parameters, represents a probabilistic basis of expectations against which observations from prior or new studies can be contrasted. An example of the use of such expectations demonstrates that they can provide useful contextual information about the contrast among observations and our ability to identify their relationship with environmental drivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population viability analyses (PVAs) represent a key component of many recovery plans for threatened and endangered species. Demography links the processes that affect individuals to population‐level patterns, and hence projections constructed from demographic data are the most common tools for PVAs. We constructed a size‐structured integral projection model (IPM) for the United States federally endangered Reticulated Flatwoods Salamander, Ambystoma bishopi, to evaluate demographic influences on population growth and predict the efficacy of future management actions. Flatwoods salamanders breed in ephemeral wetlands in the Southeastern United States. The ephemeral nature of breeding sites can result in complete recruitment failure in drought years when wetlands fail to fill, or dry before metamorphosis occurs. As a result, this species exhibits marked temporal variability in vital rates that must be accounted for in projection models. We constructed a stochastic IPM using 13 years of mark‐recapture data (2010–2023) from two breeding wetlands. Variable survival rates exhibited by flatwoods salamanders, coupled with a high probability of recruitment failure, result in a low predicted probability of population persistence. Sensitivity analyses revealed age at maturity and the frequency of recruitment exerted the greatest influence on population growth, and thus managers should prioritize conservation efforts that target these demographic processes. Additional management should consider strategies to dampen temporal variability in larval survival, something that could be achieved through emergency salvage operations, captive rearing efforts, and manipulation of wetland hydroperiods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to evaluate the temporal trend in the quality of cause-of-death data and garbage code profiles and to determine its association with socio-economic status in Serbia. A longitudinal study was assessed using data from mortality registers from 2005 to 2019. Computer application Analysis of Causes of National Deaths for Action (ANACONDA) calculates the distribution of garbage codes by severity and composite quality indicator: Vital Statistics Performance Index for Quality (VSPI(Q)). A relationship between VSPI(Q) and country development was estimated by analysing two socio-economic indicators: the Socio-demographic Index and the Human Development Index (HDI). Serbia indicates progress in strengthening cause-of-death statistics. The steady upward trend of the VSPI(Q) index has risen from 55.6 (medium quality) to 70.2 (high quality) over the examined years. Significant reduction of 'Insufficiently specified causes with limited impact' (Level 4) and an increase in the trend of 'High-impact garbage codes' (Levels 1 to 3) were evident. Decreased deaths of no policy value (annual percentage change of -1.41%) have manifested since 2014. A strong positive association between VSPI(Q) and socio-economic indicators was assessed, where the HDI has shown a stronger association with VSPI(Q). Improved socioeconomic conditions on the national level are followed by enhanced cause-of-death data quality. Upcoming actions to improve quality should be directed at high-impact garbage codes. The study underlines the need to prioritise the education and training of physicians with a crucial role in death certification to overcome many cause-of-death quality issues identified in this assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies have highlighted the biological significance of cuproptosis in disease occurrence and development. However, it remains unclear whether cuproptosis signaling also has potential impacts on tumor initiation and prognosis of gastric cancer (GC). In this study, 16 cuproptosis‐related genes (CRGs) transcriptional profiles were harnessed to perform the regularized latent variable model‐based clustering in GC. A cuproptosis signature risk scoring (CSRS) scheme, based on a weighted sum of principle components of the CRGs, was used to evaluate the prognosis and risk of individual tumors of GC. Four distinct cuproptosis signature‐based clusters, characterized by differential expression patterns of CRGs, were identified among 1136 GC samples across three independent databases. The four clusters were also associated with different clinical outcomes and tumor immune contexture. Based on the CSRS, GC patients can be divided into CSRS‐High and CSRS‐Low subtypes. We found that DBT, MTF1, and ATP7A were significantly elevated in the CSRS‐High subtype, while SLC31A1, GCSH, LIAS, DLAT, FDX1, DLD, and PDHA1 were increased in the CSRS‐Low subtype. Patients with CSRS‐Low score were characterized by prolonged survival time. Further analysis indicated that CSRS‐Low score also correlated with greater tumor mutation burden (TMB) and higher mutation rates of significantly mutated genes (SMG) in GC. In addition, the CSRS‐High subtype harbored more significantly amplified focal regions related to tumorigenesis (3q27.1, 12p12.1, 11q13.3, etc.) than the CSRS‐Low tumors. Drug sensitivity analyses revealed the potential compounds for the treatment of gastric cancer with CSRS‐High score, which were experimentally validated using GC cells. This study highlights that cuproptosis signature‐based subtyping is significantly associated with different clinical features and molecular landscape of GC. Quantitative evaluation of the CSRS of individual tumors will strengthen our understanding of the occurrence and development of cuproptosis and the treatment progress of GC. Highlights: Four distinct cuproptosis signature‐based clusters are associated with different clinical outcomes and biological pathways and are highly consistent with distinct tumor immune contextures, respectively.Based on the cuproptosis signature risk score, GC patients with a higher CSRS score were characterized by decreased survival time and correlated with tumor adhesion state and lower tumor mutation loads.DBT, MTF1, or ATP7A were significantly elevated in the CSRS‐High subtype, while ATP7B, SLC31A1, GCSH, LIAS, DLAT, FDX1, DLD, and PDHA1 were increased in the CSRS‐Low subtype.Drug sensitivity analyses revealed potential therapeutic compounds for GC with high CSRS scores. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how plant fitness varies along natural gradients is critical for predicting responses to environmental change. However, individual vital rates are often used as fitness proxies without knowing how other vital rates vary along the same gradients.We investigated how canopy cover, plant–plant interactions, water availability and soil properties influenced the emergence, survival, seed production and population growth rates of eight annual plant species in semi‐arid Western Australia. We sowed seeds into sun‐exposed and shaded blocks across a reserve, removed all neighbouring plants from half of the interaction neighbourhoods, and used rainout shelters to reduce and increase precipitation relative to ambient plots.Canopy cover had strong negative effects on emergence, but few direct impacts on other vital rates and population growth rates. Direct competitive effects on survival and seed production were rare, although evident for population growth rate for 3/8 species. Competition was stronger in open than shaded plots for half of the species. Canopy cover also interacted with the watering treatment to influence survival of half of the species, but watering alone had few direct impacts on species' vital and population growth rates. We found only positive significant correlations between pairs of rates, and survival and seed production were far more frequently correlated with population growth rate than emergence.Synthesis. Our study illustrates that vital rates can respond to the same local‐scale environmental variation in different ways that are likely not driven by life history trade‐offs. We caution against using emergence as a proxy for population growth rate and emphasise that no single vital rate was a reliable fitness proxy overall. Interactions among abiotic and biotic factors were important drivers of vital and population growth rates for some species, highlighting the need to account for plant–plant interactions when predicting population responses to environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliable estimates of age-specific vital rates are crucial in demographic studies, while ages are, in most cases, commonly grouped in bins of five years. Indeed, public health and national systems require single age-specific data to achieve accurate social planning. This paper introduces a deep learning approach for splitting the abridged death rates, providing a more comprehensive perspective on the indirect age-specific vital rates estimation from grouped data. Additionally, we contribute to the existing literature by introducing a multi-population (countries and genders) approach, providing reliable estimates considering the heterogeneity of longevity dynamics over age, years, and across populations. We also contribute to the state of the art in indirect estimation by introducing, for the first time, a multi-population indirect estimation leveraging subnational data. Our model accurately captures mortality dynamics by age over time and among different populations. We prove the model's ability to estimate reliable predictions of age-specific mortality rates by also studying how the hyperparameters' choice affects the model reliability and analyzing the age-specific relative differences between the real and the estimated mortality rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human activities catalyse risk avoidance behaviours in wildlife across taxa and systems. However, the broader ecological significance of human‐induced risk perception remains unclear, with a limited understanding of how phenotypic responses scale up to affect population or community dynamics. We present a framework informed by predator–prey ecology to predict the occurrence of non‐consumptive effects (NCE) and trait‐mediated indirect effects (TMIE) of anthropogenic disturbances. We report evidence from a comprehensive review of the different types of human‐induced behavioural and physiological phenotypic changes and their influence on vital rates and population parameters in wildlife. Evidence for human‐induced NCEs and TMIEs is mixed, with half of published studies finding a relationship between human activities, phenotypic change and population outcomes. The net effects of anthropogenic NCEs and TMIEs depend on the mismatch between the phenotypic response and the lethality of human activity. However, strong research biases in taxa, systems, human disturbance types and demographic measures prevent unified inference about the prevalence of population responses to human activities. Coexistence with and conservation of wildlife requires additional research linking human‐induced phenotypic change to population and community outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The future trajectory of global forests is closely intertwined with tree demography, and a major fundamental goal in ecology is to understand the key mechanisms governing spatio‐temporal patterns in tree population dynamics. While previous research has made substantial progress in identifying the mechanisms individually, their relative importance among forests remains unclear mainly due to practical limitations. One approach to overcome these limitations is to group mechanisms according to their shared effects on the variability of tree vital rates and quantify patterns therein. We developed a conceptual and statistical framework (variance partitioning of Bayesian multilevel models) that attributes the variability in tree growth, mortality, and recruitment to variation in species, space, and time, and their interactions – categories we refer to as organising principles (OPs). We applied the framework to data from 21 forest plots covering more than 2.9 million trees of approximately 6500 species. We found that differences among species, the species OP, proved a major source of variability in tree vital rates, explaining 28–33% of demographic variance alone, and 14–17% in interaction with space, totalling 40–43%. Our results support the hypothesis that the range of vital rates is similar across global forests. However, the average variability among species declined with species richness, indicating that diverse forests featured smaller interspecific differences in vital rates. Moreover, decomposing the variance in vital rates into the proposed OPs showed the importance of unexplained variability, which includes individual variation, in tree demography. A focus on how demographic variance is organized in forests can facilitate the construction of more targeted models with clearer expectations of which covariates might drive a vital rate. This study therefore highlights the most promising avenues for future research, both in terms of understanding the relative contributions of groups of mechanisms to forest demography and diversity, and for improving projections of forest ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]