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Heteroscedastic Gaussian process regression, based on the concept of chained Gaussian processes, is used to build surrogates to predict site-specific loads on an offshore wind turbine. Stochasticity in the inflow turbulence and irregular waves results in load responses that are best represented as random variables rather than deterministic values. Moreover, the effect of these stochastic sources on the loads depends strongly on the mean environmental conditions -- for instance, at low mean wind speeds, inflow turbulence produces much less variability in loads than at high wind speeds. Statistically, this is known as heteroscedasticity. Deterministic and most stochastic surrogates do not account for the heteroscedastic noise, giving an incomplete and potentially misleading picture of the structural response. In this paper, we draw on the recent advancements in statistical inference to train a heteroscedastic surrogate model on a noisy database to predict the conditional pdf of the response. The model is informed via 10-minute load statistics of the IEA-10MW-RWT subject to both aero- and hydrodynamic loads, simulated with OpenFAST. Its performance is assessed against the standard Gaussian process regression. The predicted mean is similar in both models, but the heteroscedastic surrogate approximates the large-scale variance of the responses significantly better., Comment: 10 pages. To be published in the IOP Journal of Physics: Conference Series. To be presented at TORQUE 2022

The state-of-the-art in wind-farm flow-physics modeling is Large Eddy Simulation (LES) which makes accurate predictions of most relevant physics, but requires extensive computational resources. The next-fidelity model types are Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) which are two orders of magnitude cheaper, but resolve only mean quantities and model the effect of turbulence. They often fail to accurately predict key effects, such as the wake recovery rate. Custom RANS closures designed for wind-farm wakes exist, but so far do not generalize well: there is substantial room for improvement. In this article we present the first steps towards a systematic data-driven approach to deriving new RANS models in the wind-energy setting. Time-averaged LES data is used as ground-truth, and we first derive optimal corrective fields for the turbulence anisotropy tensor and turbulence kinetic energy (t.k.e.) production. These fields, when injected into the RANS equations (with a baseline $k-\epsilon$ model) reproduce the LES mean-quantities. Next we build a custom RANS closure from these corrective fields, using a deterministic symbolic regression method to infer algebraic correction as a function of the (resolved) mean-flow. The result is a new RANS closure, customized to the training data. The potential of the approach is demonstrated under neutral atmospheric conditions for multi-turbine constellations at wind-tunnel scale. The results show significantly improved predictions compared to the baseline closure, for both mean velocity and the t.k.e. fields.