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We use two-round survey data from 62 elections in 10 countries since 1952 to study the formation of vote choice, beliefs, and policy preferences and assess how televised debates contribute to this process. Our data include 253,000 observations. We compare the consistency between vote intention and vote choice of respondents surveyed at different points before, and then again after, the election, and show that 17% to 29% of voters make up their mind during the final two months of campaigns. Changes in vote choice are concomitant to shifts in issues voters find most important and in beliefs about candidates, and they generate sizable swings in vote shares. In contrast, policy preferences remain remarkably stable throughout the campaign. Finally, we use an event study to estimate the impact of TV debates, in which candidates themselves communicate with voters, and of shocks such as natural and technological disasters which, by contrast, occur independently from the campaign. We do not find any effect of either type of event on vote choice formation, suggesting that information received throughout the campaign from other sources such as the media, political activists, and other citizens is more impactful.

Alzheimer disease (AD) is the first progressive neurodegenerative disease worldwide, and the disease is characterized by an accumulation of amyloid in the brain and neurovasculature that triggers cognitive decline and neuroinflammation. The innate immune system has a preponderant role in AD. The last decade, scientists focused their efforts on therapies aiming to modulate innate immunity. The latter is of great interest, since they participate to the inflammation and phagocytose the amyloid in the brain and blood vessels. We and others have developed pharmacological approaches to stimulate these cells using various ligands. These include toll-like receptor 4, macrophage colony stimulating factor, and more recently nucleotide-binding oligomerization domain-containing 2 receptors. This review will discuss the great potential to take advantage of the innate immune system to fight naturally against amyloid

Green infrastructures (GIs) have in recent decades emerged as sustainable technologies for urban stormwater management, and numerous studies have been conducted to develop and improve hydrological models for GIs. This review aims to assess current practice in GI hydrological modelling, encompassing the selection of model structure, equations, model parametrization and testing, uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, the selection of objective functions for model calibration, and the interpretation of modelling results. During a quantitative and qualitative analysis, based on a paper analysis methodology applied across a sample of 270 published studies, we found that the authors of GI modelling studies generally fail to justify their modelling choices and their alignments between modelling objectives and methods. Some practices, such as uncertainty analysis, were also found to be limited, despite their necessity being widely acknowledged by the scientific community and their application in other fields. In order to improve current GI modelling practice, the authors suggest the following: i) a framework, called STAMP, designed to promote the standardisation of the documentation of GI modelling studies, and ii) improvements in modelling tools for facilitating good practices, iii) the sharing of data for better model testing, iv) the evaluation of the suitability of hydrological equations for GI application, v) the publication of clear statements regarding model limitations and negative results.

Green roofs are increasingly popular measures to permanently reduce or delay storm-water runoff. The main objective of the study was to examine the potential of using machine learning (ML) to simulate runoff from green roofs to estimate their hydrological performance. Four machine learning methods, artificial neural network (ANN), M5 model tree, long short-term memory (LSTM) and k nearest neighbour (kNN), were applied to simulate storm-water runoff from 16 extensive green roofs located in four Norwegian cities across different climatic zones. The potential of these ML methods for estimating green roof retention was assessed by comparing their simulations with a proven conceptual retention model. Furthermore, the transferability of ML models between the different green roofs in the study was tested to investigate the potential of using ML models as a tool for planning and design purposes. The ML models yielded low volumetric errors that were comparable with the conceptual retention models, which indicates good performance in estimating annual retention. The ML models yielded satisfactory modelling results (NSE >0.5) in most of the roofs, which indicates an ability to estimate green roof detention. The variations in ML models' performance between the cities was larger than between the different configurations, which was attributed to the different climatic characteristics between the four cities. Transferred ML models between cities with similar rainfall events characteristics (Bergen–Sandnes, Trondheim–Oslo) could yield satisfactory modelling performance (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency NSE >0.5 and percentage bias |PBIAS| %) in most cases. However, we recommend the use of the conceptual retention model over the transferred ML models, to estimate the retention of new green roofs, as it gives more accurate volume estimates. Follow-up studies are needed to explore the potential of ML models in estimating detention from higher temporal resolution datasets.

We measure the overall influence of contextual versus individual factors (e.g., voting rules and media as opposed to race and education) on voter behavior, and explore underlying mechanisms. Using a US-wide voter-level panel, 2008–2018, we examine voters who relocate across state and county lines, tracking changes in registration, turnout, and party affiliation to estimate location and individual fixed effects in a value-added model. Location explains 37 percent of the cross-state variation in turnout (to 63 percent for individual characteristics) and an only slightly smaller share of variation in party affiliation. Place effects are larger for young and White voters. (JEL D12, D72, I20, J15, L82, R23)

In a large-scale randomised experiment implemented with Kenya’s Electoral Commission, text messages intended to mobilise voters boosted electoral participation. However, the messages also decreased trust in electoral institutions after the election. This decrease was stronger for individuals on the losing side and in areas that experienced election-related violence. We hypothesise that the mobilisation campaign backfired because the Electoral Commission promised a transparent and orderly electoral process but failed to deliver on these expectations. Several potential mechanisms account for the intervention’s unexpected effects, including a simple model where signalling capacity via mobilisation messages can negatively affect beliefs about election fairness.

Rooftops cover a large percentage of land area in urban areas, which can potentially be used for stormwater purposes. Seeking adaptation strategies, there is an increasing interest in utilising green roofs for stormwater management. However, the impact of extreme rainfall on the hydrological performance of green roofs and their design implications remain challenging to quantify. In this study, a method was developed to assess the detention performance of a detention-based green roof (underlaid with 100 mm of expanded clay) for current and future climate conditions under extreme precipitation using an artificial rainfall generator. The green roof runoff was found to be more sensitive to the initial water content than the hyetograph shape. The green roof outperformed the black roof in terms of all performance indicators (time of concentration, centroid delay, T50 or peak attenuation). While the time of concentration for the reference black roof was within 5 minutes independently of rainfall intensity, for the green roof was extrapolated between 30 and 90 minutes with intensity from 0.8 to 2.5 mm/min. Adding a layer of expanded clay under the green roof substrate provided a significant improvement to the detention performance under extreme precipitation in current and future climate conditions. © 2020 The Authors This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licence (CC BY 4.0), which permits copying, adaptation and redistribution, provided the original work is properly cited (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

Despite large take-up rates in most OECD countries, millions of people still refuse COVID-19 vaccination. The large number of unvaccinated individuals raises major concerns about the diffusion of the virus. Anti-vax individuals are often very vocal about their choice and use social media to convince undecided individuals not to get vaccinated. Using original data from two surveys in nine OECD countries, we show that half of the individuals, who expressed anti-vax intentions in December 2020, were vaccinated by summer 2021. We find that information plays a key role. Vaccinations were more likely among individuals aged 50+, more informed on traditional media, trusting scientists, exposed to COVID-19, compliant with public restrictions, and less concerned about vaccines’ side effects. We also run a survey experiment with informational messages in the first wave. A striking result is that these informational treatments affected not only immediate vaccination intentions, but also actual vaccination rates recorded six months later – even among individuals, who had initially expressed anti-vax intentions. Altruistic messages, about protecting health or the economy, had the largest effect. Important differences in the relative impact of our different treatments across countries indicate that successful information campaigns should be tailored to the context.

A strategy to evaluate the suitability of different multiplicative random cascades to produce rainfall time series, taking into account climate change, inputs for green infrastructures models. The multiplicative random cascades reproduce a (multi)fractal distribution of precipitation through an iterative and multiplicative random process. In the current study, the initial model, a flexible cascade that deviates from multifractal scale invariance, was improved with (i) a temperature dependency and (ii) an additional function to reproduce the temporal structure of rainfall. The structure of the models with depth and temperature dependency was found to be applicable in eight locations studied across Norway and France. The resulting time series from both reference period and projection based on RCP 8.5 were applied to two green roofs with different properties. The different models led to a slight change in the performance of green roofs, but this was not significant compared to the range of outcomes due to ensemble uncertainty in climate modelling and the stochastic uncertainty due to the nature of the process. The hydrological dampening effect of the green infrastructure was found to decrease in most of the Norwegian cities due to an increase in precipitation, especially Bergen (Norway), while slightly increasing in Marseille (France) due to decrease in rainfall event frequency.

Controls on the deformation pattern (shortening mode and tectonic style) of orogenic forelands during tectonic shortening remain poorly understood. Here, we use high-resolution 2D thermomechanical ...

Multiple sclerosis and Alzheimer’s disease are two complex neurodegenerative diseases involving the immune system. So far, available treatments provide at best mild improvements to patients’ conditions. For decades now, a new set of molecules have been used to modulate and regulate the innate immunity in these pathologies. Most studies have been carried out in rodents and some of them have reported tremendous beneficial effects on the disease course. The modulation of innate immune cells is of great interest since it provides new hope for patients. In this review, we will briefly overview the therapeutic potential of some molecules and receptors in multiple sclerosis and Alzheimer’s disease and how they could be used to exploit new therapeutic avenues.

SummaryWomen die less than men of COVID-19, but have been more concerned about its health consequences and more compliant with the public health rules imposed during the pandemic. Since return to normal life depends on vaccination, but delays in acceptance or outright refusals of vaccination are already evident, we investigate gender differences in attitudes and expected behaviors regarding COVID-19 vaccination. Using original data from a survey conducted in December 2020 in ten developed countries (N=13,326), we discover aCOVID-19 Vaccine’s gender paradox. Being more concerned about COVID-19 and more likely to believe to be infected and consequently to become seriously ill, women could be expected to be more supportive of vaccination than men. Instead, our findings show that women agree less than men to be vaccinated and to make vaccination compulsory. Our evidence suggests that their vaccine hesitance is partly due skepticism, since women are less likely to believe that vaccination is the only solution to COVID-19 and more likely to believe that COVID-19 was created by large corporations. Using a survey experiment performed in these ten countries, we show that information provision on the role of vaccination to become immune to COVID-19 is effective in reducing vaccine hesitance.

A strategy to simulate rainfall by the means of different Multiplicative random Cascades (MRC) was developed to evaluate their applicability to produce inputs for green roof infrastructures models taking into account climate change. The MRC reproduce a (multi)fractal distribution of precipitation through an iterative and multiplicative random process. The initial model was improved with a temperature dependency and an additional function to improve its capability to reproduce the temporal structure of rainfall. The structure of the models with depth and temperature dependency was found to be applicable in eight locations studied across Norway (N) and France (F). The resulting time-series from both reference period and projection based on RCP 8.5 were applied to two green roofs (GR) with different properties. The different models lead to a slight change in the performance of GR, but this was not significant compared to the range of outcomes due to ensemble uncertainty in climate modelling and the stochastic uncertainty due to nature of the process. The moderating effect of the green infrastructure was found to decrease in most of the Norwegian cities, especially Bergen (N), while increasing in Lyon (F).

We test whether politicians can use direct contact to reconnect with citizens, increase turnout, and win votes. During the 2014 Italian municipal elections, we randomly assigned 26,000 voters to receive visits from city council candidates, canvassers supporting the candidates' list, or to a control group. While canvassers' visits increased turnout by 1.8 percentage points, candidates' had no impact on participation. Candidates increased their own vote share in the precincts they canvassed, but only at the expense of other candidates on the list. This suggests that their failure to mobilize nonvoters resulted from focusing on securing the preferences of active voters.

Background: Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder and the most common form of dementia in the world. Microglia are the innate immune cells of CNS, their proliferation, activation and survival in pathologic and healthy brain have previously been shown to be highly dependent on CSF1R. Methods: Here we investigate the impact of such receptor on AD etiology and microglia. We deleted CSF1R using Cre/Lox system, the knock-out (KO) is restricted to microglia in the APP/PS1 mouse model. We induced the knock-out at 3-month-old, before plaque formation and evaluated both 6 and 8-month-old groups of mice. Results: Our findings demonstrated that CSF1R KO did not impair microglial survival and proliferation at 6 and 8 months of age in APP cKO compared to their littermate controls groups APPSwe/PS1. We have also shown that cognitive decline is delayed in CSF1R-deleted mice. Ameliorations of AD etiology is associated with a decrease in plaque volume in cortex and hippocampus area. A compensating system seems to take place following the knock-out, since TREM2/β-Catenin and IL-34 expression are significantly increased. Such a compensatory mechanism may promote microglial survival and phagocytosis of Aβ in the brain. Conclusions: Our results provide new insights on the role of CSF1R in microglia and how it interacts with the TREM2/β-Catenin and IL-34 system to clear Aβ and ameliorates the physiopathology of AD.

We measure the overall influence of contextual versus individual factors (e.g., voting rules and media as opposed to race and education) on voter behavior, and explore underlying mechanisms. Using a U.S.-wide voter-level panel, 2008–18, we examine voters who relocate across state and county lines, tracking changes in registration, turnout, and party affiliation to estimate location and individual fixed effects in a value-added model. Location explains 37 percent of the cross-state variation in turnout (to 63 percent for individual characteristics) and an only slightly smaller share of variation in party affiliation. Place effects are larger for young and White voters.

The initial public health response to the breakout of COVID-19 required fundamental changes in individual behavior, such as isolation at home or wearing masks. The effectiveness of these policies hinges on generalized public obedience. Yet, people’s level of compliance may depend on their beliefs regarding the pandemic. We use original data from two waves of a survey conducted in March and April 2020 in eight Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries (n = 21,649) to study gender differences in COVID-19−related beliefs and behaviors. We show that women are more likely to perceive COVID-19 as a very serious health problem, to agree with restraining public policy measures, and to comply with them. Gender differences in attitudes and behavior are sizable in all countries. They are accounted for neither by sociodemographic and employment characteristics nor by psychological and behavioral factors. They are only partially mitigated for individuals who cohabit or have direct exposure to the virus. We show that our results are not due to differential social desirability bias. This evidence has important implications for public health policies and communication on COVID-19, which may need to be gender based, and it unveils a domain of gender differences: behavioral changes in response to a new risk.

Using original data from two waves of a survey conducted in March and April 2020 in eight OECD countries (N = 21,649), we show that women are more likely to see COVID-19 as a very serious health problem, to agree with restraining public policy measures adopted in response to it, and to comply with them. Gender differences in attitudes and behavior are substantial in all countries, robust to controlling for a large set of sociodemographic, employment, psychological, and behavioral factors, and only partially mitigated for individuals who cohabit or have direct exposure to COVID-19. The results are not driven by differential social desirability bias. They carry important implications for the spread of the pandemic and may contribute to explain gender differences in vulnerability to it.

We test whether politicians can use direct contact to reconnect with citizens, increase turnout, and win votes. During the 2014 Italian municipal elections, we randomly assigned 26,000 voters to receive visits from city council candidates, canvassers supporting the candidates' list, or to a control group. While canvassers' visits increased turnout by 1.8 percentage points, candidates' had no impact on participation. Candidates increased their own vote share in the precincts they canvassed, but only at the expense of other candidates on the list. This suggests that their failure to mobilize non‐voters resulted from focusing on securing the preferences of active voters.

Microglia are the innate immune cells of the CNS and their proliferation, activation, and survival have previously been shown to be highly dependent on macrophage colony-stimulating factor receptor (CSF1R). Here we investigated the impact of the receptor in such processes using two different models of nerve injuries, namely hypoglossal axotomy and cuprizone-induced demyelination. Both models are associated with a robust microgliosis. The role of CSF1R was investigated using the gene deletion Cre/Lox system, which allows the conditional knock-out following tamoxifen administration. We found that after 5 weeks of cuprizone diet that CSF1R suppression caused a significant impairment of microglia function. A reduced microgliosis was detected in the corpus collosum of CSF1R knock-out mice compared to controls. In contrast to cuprizone model, the overall number of Iba1 cells was unchanged at all the times evaluated following hypoglossal axotomy in WT and cKO conditions. After nerve lesion, a tremendous proliferation was noticed in the ipsilateral hypoglossal nucleus to a similar level in both knock-out and wild-type groups. We also observed infiltration of bone-marrow derived cells specifically in CSF1R-deficient mice, these cells tend to compensate the CSF1R signaling pathway suppression in resident microglia. Taking together our results suggest a different role of CSF1R in microglia depending on the model. In the pathologic context of cuprizone-induced demyelination CSF1R signaling pathway is essential to trigger proliferation and survival of microglia, while this is not the case in a model of systemic nerve injury. M-CSF/CSF1R is consequently not the unique system involved in microgliosis following nerve damages.

Using multi-country data from 62 elections since 1952, we show that 17% to 29% of voters make up their mind during the final two months of campaigns, generating sizeable swings in candidates’ vote shares. We obtain these results by measuring the consistency between vote intention and vote choice of respondents surveyed at different points before, and then again after, the election. Changes in vote choice are concomitant to shifts in salient issues and beliefs about candidates, while policy preferences remain remarkably stable. Televised debates do not affect vote choice formation, suggesting that information continuously received by voters is more impactful.

This paper provides the first estimate of the effect of door-to-door canvassing on actual electoral outcomes, via a countrywide experiment embedded in François Hollande's campaign in the 2012 French presidential election. While existing experiments randomized door-to-door visits at the individual level, the scale of this campaign (five million doors knocked) enabled randomization by precinct, the level at which vote shares are recorded administratively. Visits did not affect turnout, but increased Hollande's vote share in the first round and accounted for one-fourth of his victory margin in the second. Visits' impact persisted in later elections, suggesting a lasting persuasion effect. (JEL C93, D7, D83)