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A devastating tsunami struck Palu Bay in the wake of the 28 September 2018 Mw = 7.5 Palu earthquake (Sulawesi, Indonesia). With a predominantly strike-slip mechanism, the question remains whether this unexpected tsunami was generated by the earthquake itself, or rather by earthquake-induced landslides. In this study we examine the tsunami potential of the co-seismic deformation. To this end, we present a novel geodetic data set of Global Positioning System and multiple Synthetic Aperture Radar-derived displacement fields to estimate a 3D co-seismic surface deformation field. The data reveal a number of fault bends, conforming to our interpretation of the tectonic setting as a transtensional basin. Using a Bayesian framework, we provide robust finite fault solutions of the co-seismic slip distribution, incorporating several scenarios of tectonically feasible fault orientations below the bay. These finite fault scenarios involve large co-seismic uplift (>2 m) below the bay due to thrusting on a restraining fault bend that connects the offshore continuation of two parallel onshore fault segments. With the co-seismic displacement estimates as input we simulate a number of tsunami cases. For most locations for which video-derived tsunami waveforms are available our models provide a qualitative fit to leading wave arrival times and polarity. The modeled tsunamis explain most of the observed runup. We conclude that co-seismic deformation was the main driver behind the tsunami that followed the Palu earthquake. Our unique geodetic data set constrains vertical motions of the sea floor, and sheds new light on the tsunamigenesis of strike-slip faults in transtensional basins.

The 2004 Aceh and 2005 Nias events are the two greatest earthquakes of the past 40 years with a total rupture of 1700 km long and a coseismic slip reaching up to 25 m. These two earthquakes have caused large stress perturbations which significantly altered seismic activity in the Sumatra-Andaman region. Using both detailed mapping of failure planes and various slip distributions, we calculate this stress change along the Sumatra-Andaman-Sagaing fault system from central Sumatra to southern Myanmar. The static Coulomb stress change Delta CFF and the observed seismic activity are in very good agreement with a Coulomb index similar to 20% greater than the one obtained for random events. Compared to previous studies, this high Coulomb Index confirms two important issues on the use of static stress change criterion: unsuited to study near-field aftershocks and only relevant for aftershocks analysis on large and mature faults at a time scale of several months. The calculated Delta CFF distribution suggests that the 2004 and 2005 earthquakes inhibit failure on the North Andaman rift and on the Sagaing fault, while failure is encouraged along the transform Andaman zone, the central Andaman rift, the West Andaman fault, the Sumatra fault system, and the offshore thrust faults west of Sumatra Island. The maximum value of similar to 15-20 bar (1.5-2 MPa) for Delta CFF is reached in the northern part of the Sumatra fault system. This high value together with the lack of major earthquake in the last 170 years result in a high seismic hazard for this region. Our results are also consistent with temporal evolution of both earthquakes' location and focal mechanism prior to and after the events. In particular, we explain the occurrence and the mechanism of seismic swarms observed in the central Andaman rift and along the west Andaman fault. Finally, our calculations reveal that the seismicity in the Andaman rift zone can only be explained if mu' > 0.5. This result leads to two end-m

A unique GPS velocity field that spans the entire Southeast Asia region is presented. It is based on 10 years (1994–2004) of GPS data at more than 100 sites in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Vietnam. The majority of the horizontal velocity vectors have a demonstrated global accuracy of ?1 mm/yr (at 95% confidence level). The results have been used to (better) characterize the Sundaland block boundaries and to derive a new geokinematic model for the region. The rotation pole of the undeformed core of the Sundaland block is located at 49.0°N–94.2°E, with a clockwise rotation rate of 0.34°/Myr. With respect to both geodetically and geophysically defined Eurasia plate models, Sundaland moves eastward at a velocity of 6 ± 1 to 10 ± 1 mm/yr from south to north, respectively. Contrary to previous studies, Sundaland is shown to move independently with respect to South China, the eastern part of Java, the island of Sulawesi, and the northern tip of Borneo. The Red River fault in South China and Vietnam is still active and accommodates a strike?slip motion of ?2 mm/yr. Although Sundaland internal deformation is general very small (less than 7 nanostrain/yr), important accumulation of elastic deformation occurs along its boundaries with fast?moving neighboring plates. In particular in northern Sumatra and Malaysia, inland?pointing trench?perpendicular residual velocities were detected prior to the megathrust earthquake of 26 December 2004. Earlier studies in Sumatra already showed this but underestimated the extent of the deformation zone, which reaches more than 600 km away from the trench. This study shows that only a regional Southeast Asia network spanning thousands of kilometers can provide a reference frame solid enough to analyze intraplate and interplate deformation in detail., Space Engineering, Aerospace Engineering

The island of Sulawesi, eastern Indonesia, is located within the triple junction of the Australian, Philippine, and Sunda plates and accommodates the convergence of continental fragments with the Sunda margin. We quantify the kinematics of Sulawesi by modeling GPS velocities and earthquake slip vectors as a combination of rigid block rotations and elastic deformation around faults. We find that the deformation can be reasonably described by a small number of rapidly rotating crustal blocks. Relative to the Sunda Plate, the southwestern part of Sulawesi (Makassar Block) rotates anticlockwise at ?1.4°/Myr. The northeastern part of Sulawesi, the Bangai?Sula domain, comprises three blocks: the central North Sula Block moves toward the NNW and rotates clockwise at ?2.5°/Myr, the northeastern Manado Block rotates clockwise at ?3°/Myr about a nearby axis, and East Sulawesi is pinched between the North Sula and Makassar blocks. Along the boundary between the Makassar Block and the Sunda Plate, GPS measurements suggest that the trench accommodates ?15 mm/yr of slip within the Makassar Strait with current elastic strain accumulation. The tectonic boundary between North Sula and Manado blocks is the Gorontalo Fault, moving right laterally at about 11 mm/yr and accumulating elastic strain. The 42 mm/yr relative motion between North Sula and Makassar blocks is accommodated on the Palu?Koro left?lateral strike?slip fault zone. The data also indicate a pull?apart structure in Palu area, where the fault shows a transtensive motion and may have a complex geometry involving several active strands. Sulawesi provides a primary example of how collision can be accommodated by crustal block rotation instead of mountain building., Space Engineering, Aerospace Engineering

Using a regional GPS data set including ?190 stations in Asia, from Nepal to eastern Indonesia and spanning 11 years, we update the present?day relative motion between the Indian and Sundaland plates and discuss the deformation taking place between them in Myanmar. Revisiting measurements acquired on the Main Boundary Thrust in Nepal, it appears that points in southern Nepal exhibit negligible deformation with respect to mainland India. Including these points, using a longer time span than previous studies, and making an accurate geodetic mapping in the newest reference frame allows us to refine the present?day Indian motion. Our results confirm that the current motion of India is slower than predicted by the NUVEL?1A model, and in addition our India?Eurasia motion is significantly (?5 mm/yr) slower than previous geodetic determinations. This new Indian motion, combined with a refined determination of the Sundaland motion, gives way to a relative India?Sunda angular velocity of 20.2°N, 26.1°E, 0.370°/Myr in ITRF2000, predicting a relative motion of 35 mm/yr oriented N10° at the latitude of Myanmar. There, the Sagaing Fault accommodates only 18 mm/yr of right?lateral strike slip, only half of the shear component of motion. We present two models addressing how and where the remaining deformation may occur. A first model of distributed deformation implies convergence on the Arakan subduction (the northern continuation of the now famous Sumatra?Andaman Trench) and wrench faulting in the Arakan wedge. The second model uses localized deformation, where deformation observed west of the Sagaing Fault is entirely due to elastic loading on a faster and oblique Arakan subduction (23 mm/yr). This latter model predicts that a major earthquake of Mw 8.5 may occur every century on this segment of the subduction., Space Engineering, Aerospace Engineering

A network of 27 GPS sites was implemented in Iran and northern Oman to measure displacements in this part of the Alpine–Himalayan mountain belt. We present and interpret the results of two surveys performed in 1999 September and 2001 October. GPS sites in Oman show northward motion of the Arabian Plate relative to Eurasia slower than the NUVEL-1A estimates (e.g. 22 ± 2 mm yr−1 at N8°± 5°E instead of 30.5 mm yr−1 at N6°E at Bahrain longitude). We define a GPS Arabia–Eurasia Euler vector of 27.9°± 0.5°N, 19.5°± 1.4°E, 0.41°± 0.1° Myr−1. The Arabia–Eurasia convergence is accommodated differently in eastern and western Iran. East of 58°E, most of the shortening is accommodated by the Makran subduction zone (19.5 ± 2 mm yr−1) and less by the Kopet-Dag (6.5 ± 2 mm yr−1). West of 58°E, the deformation is distributed in separate fold and thrust belts. At the longitude of Tehran, the Zagros and the Alborz mountain ranges accommodate 6.5 ± 2 mm yr−1 and 8 ± 2 mm yr−1 respectively. The right-lateral displacement along the Main Recent Fault in the northern Zagros is about 3 ± 2 mm yr−1, smaller than what was generally expected. By contrast, large right-lateral displacement takes place in northwestern Iran (up to 8 ± mm yr−1). The Central Iranian Block is characterized by coherent plate motion (internal deformation <2 mm yr−1). Sites east of 61°E show very low displacements relative to Eurasia. The kinematic contrast between eastern and western Iran is accommodated by strike-slip motions along the Lut Block. To the south, the transition zone between Zagros and Makran is under transpression with right-lateral displacements of 11 ± 2 mm yr−1.

The rate of crustal deformation in Iran due to the Arabia–Eurasia collision is estimated. The results are based on new global positioning system (GPS) data. In order to address the problem of the distribution of the deformation in Iran, Iranian and French research organizations have carried out the first large-scale GPS survey of Iran. A GPS network of 28 sites (25 in Iran, two in Oman and one in Uzbekistan) has been installed and surveyed twice, in September 1999 and October 2001. Each site has been surveyed for a minimum observation of 4 days. GPS data processing has been done using the GAMIT-GLOBK software package. The solution displays horizontal repeatabilities of about 1.2 mm in 1999 and 2001. The resulting velocities allow us to constrain the kinematics of the Iranian tectonic blocks. These velocities are given in ITRF2000 and also relative to Eurasia. This last kinematic model demonstrates that (1) the north–south shortening from Arabia to Eurasia is 2–2.5 cm/year, less than previously estimated, and (2) the transition from subduction (Makran) to collision (Zagros) is very sharp and governs the different styles of deformation observed in Iran. In the eastern part of Iran, most of the shortening is accommodated in the Gulf of Oman, while in the western part the shortening is more distributed from south to north. The large faults surrounding the Lut block accommodate most of the subduction–collision transition.