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Droughts are a recurring long-term problem in West Africa, but in recent years the region has also experienced a significant increase in damaging floods. Increasing trends in extreme discharges have been shown, reflected by an increase in return level magnitude since 1980s in Sahelian rivers. Our study targets flood prediction within the regional catchment of the Niger River at Niamey, the capital of Niger. The river hydrograph has changed significantly since the drought between the 1970s and 1980s, evolving from a single peak to a two-hump hydrograph: a first flood, coming mainly from three direct Sahelian tributaries of the right bank of the Niger River, and a second one, coming from the more remote Guinean basin. Predicting floods in Niamey is not straightforward because of the complexity of the hydrological system, which combines non-stationarity and the difficulty of deconvoluting the two floods and separate their own trends.The objective of the study is to quantitatively assess the hydrological hazard on the Niger River at Niamey based on a flow data set covering the period 1950-2020 by developing a statistical modeling approach that allows to integrate both the hydrological complexity and the non-stationarity of floods. An important question addressed by the proposed approach is to evaluate the contribution of considering hydrological complexity in non-stationary statistical modeling. This is achieved by defining several flood samples and proposing different non-stationary models adapted to their complexity.

Agrometeorological services are a subset of climate services targeted to support farmers' tactical and strategic decisions, with the potential to support farmers' capacity to cope with climate variability and change, as well as strengthen their resilience toward climatic risks. However, the effectiveness of such services is often limited by inadequate and unsuitable means of communication with farmers. Therefore, in recent years, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and partners have focussed their efforts on improving communication through these services. At the European Meteorological Society (EMS) Annual Meeting in September 2022, a workshop on effective communication of agrometeorological services was held as a hybrid side event, with the aim of answering the question: “How can we deliver efficient and effective agrometeorological services”? The workshop was a joint endeavour of Met Éireann, the International Society of Biometeorology, the EMS Media and Communication Committee, the Slovenian Environment Agency, the Slovenian Meteorological Society, and the S. W. Tromp Foundation. The aim of this workshop was to advance better communication of services to the agriculture sector as a basis for promoting adaptive strategies for weather and climate change, which would enable sufficient food production at present and in the future. The workshop also provided an opportunity for transdisciplinary discussions between national meteorological and hydrological services, universities, research institutes, private companies, and the WMO. The topics discussed at the workshop included learning about exemplar agrometeorological services at various national hydrometeorological services, strengthening communication of agrometeorological services to end-users, improving data and information sharing, and educating end-users. The workshop resulted in a list of recommendations for the future.

In recent years, West Africa has experienced an increasing number of flood disasters, urging governments and decision makers to take adaptation measures, particularly in cities where the population is growing very fast.The present study focuses on the hydrological hazard of the city of Niamey (capital of Niger) along the Niger River. The regime of the Niger river at Niamey is marked by two successive floods: a first flood (July-August) resulting from the contributions of local Sahelian catchment (Sahelian red flood) and a second flood (February-March) resulting from the contribution of upstream catchments (Guinean black flood). Past studies have shown how the 1st flood, which was almost non-existent in the 1950s and 1960s, has predominated since the 1980s causing the most damaging floods due to a combined effect of climate and land use/cover changes. However, there is no in-depth study on statistical flood modelling, which is an essential step in any flood management strategy. The aim of the study is to evaluate how Niger discharge regime has changed since the 1950s with a specific focus on floods with the aim of deciphering the impact of Guinean and local flows in a statistical model.To do so, an original method is first proposed to isolate local flows from Guinean flows in the Niamey discharge data series. This separation allows us to distinguish three typologies of maximum annual floods according to whether they are generated by Guinean flows only, local flows only or a mix of the two. This observation leads us to propose different models of extreme discharge in Niamey based on the non-stationary extreme value theory able to consider both the typology of the floods and their temporal evolution.

Agrometeorological services, as part of weather and climate services, are expected to play a key role in supporting sub-Saharan agriculture facing climate change and variability. In the Sahel, smallholder farmers relying on rainfed crop production systems are particularly vulnerable to climate change and variability because of low resilience and coping capacity. The provision of agrometeorological services is growing across Africa, but they often remain inaccessible for the majority of smallholder farmers or are not very relevant to support on-the-ground decision-making. Our work aims to demonstrate the hypothesis that agrometeorological services can effectively improve agricultural productivity and sustainability provided that appropriate mechanisms are put in place to ensure access, uptake and action. The paper illustrates the case study of Burkina Faso, where the National Meteorological Service, with the support of the World Meteorological Organization, engaged in the provision of accessible, reliable and relevant agrometeorological services for farmers. The study demonstrates that farmers, even in remote rural areas, are willing to profit from weather and climate services for strategic and tactical decisions in agricultural management because of relevant economic benefit. These benefits can be summarized as a 40% reduction in production costs and a 41% increase in income. Results also highlight environmental positive impacts such as the reduction by 50% in the use of fertilizers. Nevertheless, the study concludes that in order to scale-up weather and climate services in West Africa, a new business model released from the development projects approach should be explored.

During the World Climate Conference-3, Capacity Development has been acknowledged as a transversal component underpinning all the other Pillars of the Global Framework for Climate Services. Within the Mediterranean basin, the interest of climate services based on seasonal climate forecasts is rising because they provide an opportunity for developing a proactive approach towards water management. In 2014, the Regional Training Center (RTC) in Italy, in agreement with World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and member countries of Region I and VI, identified seasonal climate forecasts as a strategic subject of capacity development for the Mediterranean Region. Following design-based research methods, this paper presents the evolution of the training approaches adopted, from classroom lessons to a blend of practical and theoretical classroom and distance learning. This evolution, as well as the rising satisfaction of trainees' expectations encouraged WMO and the RTC to widen the spectrum of beneficiaries and to make the resulting course materials available for other regions and RTCs as a course package. The course package provides essential guidelines to facilitate adoption and adaptation of the course by different institutions and instructors, including those in other WMO Regions, based on regional or institutional learning needs and standards, while also serving the needs of individual learners.

During the last 20 years, floods have become a major hazard in West Africa, particularly in the Sahelian belt, affecting livelihoods, infrastructure and production systems, and hence heavily impacting on sustainable development. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 recognized Climate Services (CS) as a powerful tool for more effective disaster preparedness. The European research and innovation Roadmap for CS expands their contribution, particularly “hydrometeorological services”, to the Sendai Framework. From this convergence, Hydrometeorological Early Warning Systems (EWS) become a strategic target and a building block of preparedness to hydrometeorological risks in developed and developing countries. In West Africa, EWS for floods are in place only for the main rivers and are conceived mainly top-down and hazard centered, lacking links with exposed communities and expected impacts. These gaps reduce the effectiveness of a flood EWS, while engaging local communities since de beginning through a co-production process can improve the effectiveness and ensure better response in case of alert.Our study aims to present the lessons learnt from the set-up of a Community and Impact Based Flood EWS on the Sirba River in Niger. The service was developed with stakeholders at different levels, leveraging on existing resources and knowledge, using simple but effective approaches and integrating state-of-the-art hydro-meteorological science in a decisional scheme of Sahelian rural areas. This mechanism can be replicable in different contexts characterized by knowledge and structural deficits, by creating a better capacity to exchange data and information and by directly connecting available technical capabilities with the local level. The participatory approach allowed the beneficiaries to define the rules of the system, which, in any case, needed to be consistent with the national legislation and internationally recognized best practices.The study suggests that it is not necessary to develop complex forecasting tools, while it can be preferable to enhance those already operating and calibrate them on the local scale through risk thresholds, field observations and potential impacts using flood scenarios. The strength of simplicity also lies in not having to spread complex messages, but simply the reference risk scenario, and finally its color-code (according to the international standards of ISO 22324:2015), which already embeds all other information including potential impacts. The simple and integrated approach illustrated in this case study, bridging the gap between top-down and bottom-up approaches, can inspire Governments, local administrations and development partners to invest in the improvement of existing tools and knowledge and in strengthening cooperation, collaboration and coordination to reduce hazards’ impacts and sustain the development of rural and urban areas.

International audience; Niamey, the capital of Niger, is particularly prone to floods, since it is on the banks of the Niger River, which in its middle basin has two flood peaks: one in summer (the red flood) and one in winter (the black flood). In 2020, the Niger River in Niamey reached its all-time highest levels following an abundant rainy season. On the other hand, the floods in Niamey have been particularly frequent in the last decade, a symptom of a change in hydroclimatic behaviour already observed since the end of the great droughts of the 1970s and 1980s and which is identified with the name of Sahelian Paradox. This study, starting from the analysis of the 2020 flood and from the update of the rating curve of the Niamey hydrometric station, analyses the rainfall–runoff relationship on the Sahelian basins of the Medium Niger River Basin (MNRB) that are at the origin of the local flood. The comparative analysis of runoffs, annual maximum flows (AMAX) and runoff coefficients with various rainfall indices calculated on gridded datasets allowed to hydroclimatically characterise the last decade as a different period from the wet one before the drought, the dry one and the post-drought one. Compared to the last one, the current period is characterised by a sustained increase in hydrological indicators (AMAX +27%) consistent with the increase in both the accumulation of precipitation (+11%) and the number (+51%) and magnitude (+54%) of extreme events in the MNRB. Furthermore, a greater concentration of rainfall and extremes (+78%) in August contributes to reinforcing the red flood’s positive anomalies (+2.23 st.dev in 2020). The study indicates that under these conditions the frequency of extreme hydrological events in Niamey will tend to increase further also because of the concurrence of drivers such as river-bed silting and levee effects. Consequently, the study concludes with the need for a comprehensive flood-risk assessment on the Niamey city that considers both recent hydroclimatic trends and urbanisation dynamics in flood zones hence defining the most appropriate risk-reduction strategies.

Le chapitre caractérise le climat de la région de Dosso (figure 1) à travers les principaux paramètres climatiques utiles pour identifier les aléas sécheresse et inondation et considère les tendances climatiques des évènements extrêmes (pauses pluviométriques et pluies intenses). Les analyses sont basées sur les données des stations et postes pluviométriques de la Direction de la météorologie nationale (DMN) du Niger en analysant les séries d'enregistrements dans la région d'au moins 30 ans. Une intégration avec les données des modelés de projection climatique a été faite pour détecter les tendances futures du climat. Le but de la caractérisation climatique de la région de Dosso est de connaître l'ampleur spatio-temporelle des changements des paramètres clés du climat.

Relevant le défi des initiatives de l'OMM, le projet ANADIA 2.0 s'est engagé dans l'appui à la Direction de la météorologie nationale du Niger (DMN) pour la production et la diffusion de services agro-météorologiques pour les agriculteurs. L'hypothèse est que les SMC peuvent effectivement améliorer la productivité agricole et augmenter les revenus des agriculteurs, jouant un rôle essentiel dans la réalisation des objectifs de développement durable (Campbell et al. 2014), à condition que des mécanismes appropriés de diffusion et d'utilisation soient en place. Par conséquent, les défis que le projet a décidé de relever ont été identifiés dans l'amélioration des services existants, dans l'augmentation de leur diffusion et dans le soutien à leur adoption. Ce chapitre vise à délimiter l'approche méthodologique adoptée dans la région de Dosso et à discuter les succès et les échecs rencontrés au cours des 2 dernières années.

Cet ouvrage visait à montrer, à travers le cas de la région Dosso (Niger), comment il est possible d'améliorer la gestion locale du risque hydroclimatique en milieu rural au moyen d'analyses et d'évaluations des risques et de mesures d'adaptation appropriées. Les onze chapitres présentent la sécheresse agricole, les précipitations intenses et les inondations fluviales qui menacent les établissements humains et les moyens de subsistance de la population rurale de cette région, en réduisant la sécurité alimentaire et entravant le développement durable. Les températures, les pluies intenses, les séquences sèches devraient augmenter dans les années à venir et leurs impacts sur les communautés rurales sont destinés à se répéter et à s'aggraver s'ils ne sont pas traités par des mesures adéquates. Ces menaces se traduisent par des impacts sur les communautés locales. Dans la région de Dosso, ce ne sont pas les villes qui sont les plus touchées par les inondations mais les villages administratifs et les hameaux, où 70 % des dégâts aux habitations s'accumulent. Au cours des vingt dernières années, ces localités semblent subir une transformation rapide. Tout d'abord, elles se développent plus rapidement (5,4 % en moyenne annuelle) que les villes (3,0 %). Ensuite les bâtiments utilisent de plus en plus des toitures en tôle : + 14 % en moyenne annuelle dans les villages administratifs et + 15 % en moyenne annuelle dans les hameaux. Cependant, cette consolidation positive du cadre bâti n'est pas suffisante pour protéger les maisons des inondations pluviales.

climatiques, leurs conséquences et leurs impacts sont souvent rares et spatialement non homogènes, et il en va de même pour les données sur les inondations. Dans le passé, les chercheurs ont analysé les séries chronologiques des inondations en utilisant principalement des informations tirées des media et des bases de données mondiales sur les catastrophes. Tarhule et al. (2005) ont utilisé des informations tirées de comptes rendus de journaux entre 1970 et 2000 pour analyser la fréquence des inondations et leurs impacts au Sahel. Aich et al. (2015) ont analysé les séries chronologiques des inondations à travers le bassin du fleuve Niger dérivées de trois sources différentes : le NatCatService de la société de réassurance de Munich, la base de données (EM-DAT) de l'Université de Louvain et la base de données du Dartmouth Flood Observatory. Toutes les données sont basées sur des revues de presse des organisations respectives et la collecte de données provenant de sources officielles. Comme l'ont déclaré les auteurs eux-mêmes, les chiffres rapportés dans ces enquêtes diffèrent souvent considérablement d'une source à l'autre. Depuis 1998, le Dispositif national de prévention et de gestion des catastrophes et crises alimentaires (DNPGCA) a collecté au Niger des données sur les inondations enregistrant les localités et les populations affectées, les dates des inondations et les dommages. Initialement, ces données ont été collectées dans la plupart des cas au niveau départemental ou régional, sous forme papier et sans unités de mesure homogènes ; depuis les premières années de la dernière décennie, le système a été affiné et les informations sur les inondations sont désormais collectées au niveau des localités de manière standardisée. Depuis 2014, la cellule de coordination du système d'alerte précoce (CC/SAP) a mis en place, avec le support du projet ANADIA (Adaptation au changement climatique et réduction des risques de catastrophe en agriculture pour la sécurité alimentaire au Niger), une base de données relationnelle, dénommée BDINA (Base de données sur les inondations au Niger ANADIA) afin de stocker les données numériques et permettre l'évaluation des impacts des inondations. La base de données est en accès libre sur le web (www.inondations-niger.org). Exploitant les informations publiées par la BDINA, l'objectif de cette étude est de fournir à la communauté scientifique et aux décideurs politiques une source de données référencée et fiable concernant les inondations dans la région de Dosso, évaluant les tendances spatiales et temporelles entre 1998 et 2019 au niveau régional et sous-régional.

Le Niger est un pays caractérisé par une forte variabilité climatique et les aléas climatiques représentent le principal facteur limitant la production agricole. L'interaction entre les ressources naturelles, le climat et la population détermine la base physique des systèmes de production (Banque mondiale 2013). Les systèmes de production du Niger sont particulièrement vulnérables aux risques climatiques à cause de la pauvreté structurelle, de la dégradation des ressources en sol et de la croissance démographique. Par conséquent, le climat résulte être l'un des facteurs qui entravent la mise en place des conditions durables de la sécurité alimentaire. Cette emprise du climat sur la sécurité alimentaire résulte principalement des impacts des sécheresses, des inondations et d'autres catastrophes. La prise en compte des risques climatiques auxquels fait face cette agriculture de subsistance au Niger est plus que nécessaire pour assurer la sécurité alimentaire des populations. Le suivi et l'évaluation des risques climatiques majeurs permettent de quantifier leur ampleur et leur fréquence afin de s'y adapter.

En Afrique tropicale la réduction du risque hydro-climatique peine à devenir une politique publique. La Région de Dosso au Niger (31 000 km2, deux millions d'habitants) a été inondée et frappée par la sécheresse à plusieurs reprises durant les dernières années. Alors, pour mieux comprendre et maîtriser ces aléas les changements climatiques d'ici au 2030 sont caractérisées à l'échelle locale. La base de données sur les inondations est transférée dans une archive ouverte. La dynamique spatiale des localités rurales est observée durant les 20 dernières années, L'analyse-évaluation du risque d'inondation et de sécheresse est développée à l'échelle régionale, communale et de localité rurale. Des services climatologiques sont offerts aux petits producteurs ruraux. Les méthodes proposées utilisent des informations en libre accès et sont donc aisément reproductibles dans d'autres régions du Pays et d'Afrique francophone. Ce livre présente des outils pour connaître et gérer le risque hydro-climatique à l'échelle locale (Sous Presse).

In the tropics, rural areas are still the place where many people live, despite ongoing urbanization [...]

Highlights ● Hydraulic modelling and satellite imagery enable hazard and exposure mapping. ● Local knowledge enables better understanding of hazards and their impacts. ● Benefit/cost and opportunity analysis support decision-making in risk treatment., In tropical regions, heavy precipitations may lead to catastrophic flooding due to the degradation of catchments and the expansion of settlements in flood prone zones. In the current situation, where information on rainfall and exposed assets is either scant, or requires significant time to be collected, pluvial flood risk assessments are conducted using participatory tools, without any scientific support. Another option is to use satellite precipitation products, digital terrain models and satellite images at high to moderate-resolution. However, these datasets do not reach the required accuracy at the local scale. Consequently, the potential damages and the evaluation component of risk assessment are often missing. Risk evaluation is pivotal for informed decision-making, with regards to the choice of treating or accepting the risk, implementing more effective measures, and for determining the safest areas for development. We proposed an improved method for assessing the risk of pluvial floods, which merges local and scientific knowledge and is consistent with the ISO 31010 standard. The method was successfully applied in five rural settlements in Niger and can be replicated in areas where information is scarce., Graphical abstract Improved method for assessing the risk of pluvial flooding locally. Its application in five rural settlements demonstrates its usefulness in decision-making regarding risk treatment and built-up expansion in safe areas.Image, graphical abstract

Capitolo su "Tailored agrometeorological services in West Africa"

Distance learning is assuming a greater value in professional training both because of its lower cost compared to face-to-face learning and for the opportunities it provides in periods when trainee displacement is hindered by socio-political or health emergencies (e.g. the recent covid-19 pandemic). Moreover, distance learning allows us to create lasting learning resources that otherwise would not be continuously available for trainees. During recent years, the World Meteorological Organization invested human and financial resources in the development of the Global Campus initiative, which has virtual spaces where learning materials and opportunities are gathered and made available to users. As part of the Global Campus initiative, the Regional Training Center in Italy, with the support of the Italian Ministries of Foreign Affairs, developed several distance learning packages among which the TOPaCS (Training Operational Package For Climate Services) addresses the training needs of Climate Services Professionals in sub-Saharan Africa. TOPaCS builds on the competency-based training approach and on the application of up-to-date training solutions such as the integrated use of different multimedia supports and the use of Open Badges to certify learning. Synchronous distance learning was also tested for teaching soft skills related to climate services communication. This contribution analyzes pros and cons of distance learning approaches, comparing synchronous and asynchronous solutions and their suitability for hard and soft skills teaching. It highlights opportunities and constraints, critical points and key strategic choices in the development of distance learning. The results of the study highlight that flexible solutions and versatile approaches allow personalized training paths according to end-user needs. Asynchronous microlearning (very small units of study) can be helpful in this perspective but it may result in the atomization of the training modules and the fragmentation of education pathways. Synchronous distance learning is often more appropriate for soft skills but requires larger development efforts and more efficient technical solutions (e.g. higher bandwidth), which can be an issue in some developing countries.

Introduzione generale al libro "Risque et adaptation climatique dans la région de Dosso au Niger" prodotto nell'ambito del progetto ANADIA2.

La disponibilité en eau est le principal facteur limitant l'agriculture au Sahel. La région de Dosso, au Niger, a un grand potentiel agricole grâce à sa position géographique à la limite sud du Sahel et au fleuve Niger qui la contourne pour plus de 150 kilomètres à l'Est. Le climat de la région est soudano-sahélien et a été caractérisé par une période humide jusqu'à la fin des années 1960, une période sèche aux années 1970-1980 et une période postsécheresse, plus humide que la précédente mais ne récupérant pas complètement la situation initiale, à partir de la fin des années 1990. À l'échelle saisonnière, 90 % des précipitations annuelles, principalement d'origine convective, se produisent de juin à septembre. Les événements pluvieux, généralement courts et intenses, tombent sur des sols nus ou dégradés entraînent un fort ruissellement qui se concentre rapidement dans les mares temporaires, les sorties naturelles de petits bassins versants, puis dans le réseau de drainage principal. Cette étude vise à témoigner comment les nouvelles conditions hydroclimatiques ont permis l'expansion du maraîchage en témoignant de capacités paysannes à surmonter un contexte de crise aux multiples facettes. D'autre part, il met aussi en évidence les risques qui menacent ces nouveaux systèmes de production si des mesures de ne sont pas urgemment prises pour éviter une ultérieure dégradation environnementale qui effacerait tous les avantages que les changements observés semblent amener.

Description du sujet. Dans les pays subsahariens et en particulier au Senegal, les systemes semenciers traditionnels representent encore l'option la plus repandue dans l'agriculture familiale nonobstant les nombreux efforts des Etats pour developper des filieres semencieres modernes et economiquement durables. Objectifs. Analyser le secteur semencier formel du riz pluvial de la Casamance, une region a forte vocation rizicole ou le riz represente toujours la premiere source alimentaire des menages ruraux, aux niveaux organisationnel et de structuration du marche. Methode. Les donnees statistiques collectees ont ete elaborees pour decrire la situation de la demande/offre de semences certifiees de riz dans la sous-region et la region ciblee. A travers des entretiens semi-directifs, les acteurs principaux de la filiere ont ete interviewes pour identifier et analyser les maillons de la filiere et combler le gap informatif venant des donnees quantitatives. Resultats. L'etude identifie les principales limites et contraintes ainsi que les inefficacites du systeme semencier formel concu comme filiere marchande mais non adapte a un contexte de subsistance ou la demande commerciale finale de semences certifiees est presque nulle. Une forte dependance des acteurs impliques par rapport aux interventions de l'Etat et de ses partenaires techniques et financiers et le manque d'un cadre de concertation et de planification entre les differents acteurs de la chaine semenciere ont ete releves. Conclusions. La mise en oeuvre d’un systeme semencier integre et d’un cadre d'actions a entreprendre pour soutenir l'integration des differentes composantes de la filiere sont proposes. Ce cadre peut etre retenu comme une demarche d'orientation et d'aide a l’identification et a la hierarchisation des interventions de l’Etat et de ses PTF. Description of the subject. In sub-Saharan countries and particularly in Senegal, traditional seed systems still represent the most widespread option in family-based agricultures, despite the many efforts made by Governments to develop modern and economically sustainable seed chains. Objectives. Analyse formal rainfed rice seed sector in Casamance, a rice-rich regionwhere rice is still the main source of food for rural households, at the organizational and at the level of market structure. Method. Collected statistical data were processed to describe the situation of demand/supply of certified rice seed in the subregion and in targeted region. Through semi-structured interviews, the main actors of the sector were interviewed to identify and analyse chain structure and to fill the information gap from quantitative data. Results. The study identifies the main limitations and constraints of the sector as well as the inefficiencies of a seed system designed as a market chain and not adapted to a subsistence context where the final commercial demand for certified seeds is almost zero. A strong dependence of the actors involved in relation to interventions of Government and its technical and financial partners and the lack of a consultation and planning framework between actors and supply systems have been outlined. Conclusions. The implementation of an integrated seed system and a framework of actions to be undertaken in the region to support the integration of various chain are proposed. This framework can be used as tool to orient and assist the identification and prioritization of interventions of Government and its TFP.

Agriculture production in Nigerien rural areas mainly depends on weather variability. Weather forecasts produced by national or international bodies have very limited dissemination in rural areas and even if broadcast by local radio, they remain generic and limited to short-term information. According to several experiences in West Africa, weather and climate services (WCSs) have great potential to support farmers&rsquo, decision making. The challenge is to reach local communities with tailored information about the future weather to support strategic and tactical crop management decisions. WCSs, in West Africa, are mainly based on short-range weather forecasts and seasonal climate forecasts, while medium-range weather forecasts, even if potentially very useful for crop management, are rarely produced. This paper presents the results of a pilot initiative in Niger to reach farming communities with 10-day forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration&mdash, Global Forecast System (NOAA-GFS) produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). After the implementation of the download and treatment chain, the Niger National Meteorological Directorate can provide 10-day agrometeorological forecasts to the agricultural extension services in eight rural municipalities. Exploiting the users&rsquo, evaluation of the forecasts, an analysis of usability and overall performance of the service is described. The results demonstrate that, even in rural and remote areas, agrometeorological forecasts are valued as powerful and useful information for decision-making processes. The service can be implemented at low cost with effective technologies making it affordable and sustainable even in developing countries. Nonetheless, the service&rsquo, s effectiveness depends on several aspects mainly related to the way information is communicated to the public.

Floods have recently become a major hazard in West Africa (WA) in terms of both their magnitude and frequency. They affect livelihoods, infrastructure and production systems, hence impacting on Sustainable Development (SD). Early Warning Systems (EWS) for floods that properly address all four EWS components, while also being community and impact-based, do not yet exist in WA. Existing systems address only the main rivers, are conceived in a top-down manner and are hazard-centered. This study on the Sirba river in Niger aims to demonstrate that an operational community and impact-based EWS for floods can be set up by leveraging the existing tools, local stakeholders and knowledge. The main finding of the study is that bridging the gap between top-down and bottom-up approaches is possible by directly connecting the available technical capabilities with the local level through a participatory approach. This allows the beneficiaries to define the rules that will develop the whole system, strengthening their ability to understand the information and take action. Moreover, the integration of hydrological forecasts and observations with the community monitoring and preparedness system provides a lead time suitable for operational decision-making at national and local levels. The study points out the need for the commitment of governments to the transboundary sharing of flood information for EWS and SD.

In the last decades since the dramatic increase in flood frequency and magnitude, floods have become a crucial problem in West Africa. National and international authorities concentrate efforts on developing early warning systems (EWS) to deliver flood alerts and prevent loss of lives and damages. Usually, regional EWS are based on hydrological modeling, while local EWS adopt field observations. This study aims to integrate outputs from two regional hydrological models&mdash, Niger HYPE (NH) and World-Wide HYPE (WWH)&mdash, in a local EWS developed for the Sirba River. Sirba is the major tributary of Middle Niger River Basin and is supported by a local EWS since June 2019. Model evaluation indices were computed with 5-day forecasts demonstrating a better performance of NH (Nash&ndash, Sutcliffe efficiency NSE = 0.58) than WWH (NSE = 0.10) and the need of output optimization. The optimization conducted with a linear regression post-processing technique improves performance significantly to &ldquo, very good&rdquo, for NH (Heidke skill score HSS = 0.53) and &ldquo, good&rdquo, for WWH (HSS = 0.28). HYPE outputs allow to extend local EWS warning lead-time up to 10 days. Since the transfer informatic environment is not yet a mature operational system 10&ndash, 20% of forecasts were unfortunately not produced in 2019, impacting operational availability.

In developing countries, and particularly in West Africa, the role of Climate Services (CS) for sustainable development is growing thanks to wide spreading collaboration among European institutions, including National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) research centers, universities, and homologue local institutions. Operationally, the implementation of CSs in developing countries is mainly pivoted on NMHS, which, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), are dramatically affected by unmet learning demand. The global scale of learning needs for co-development of CSs calls for innovative solutions and a range of flexible modalities to reach learners in a variety of ways, and for sharing resources and successful strategies within the global education and training community. In order to harmonize expected learning outcomes, WMO defined a competency framework (CF) for CSs to be used in the implementation of training initiatives and knowledge sharing tools. This paper presents the strategic and methodological approach adopted in the implementation of the TOPaCS, a new knowledge-based distance learning initiative, aiming to provide a flexible learning environment within the CSs CF of WMO ensuring coherence with other WMO education initiatives (Global Campus, other RTCs, etc.). The methodological approach adopted is based on the competency-based approach to training, where competencies are composed by elements of knowledge and skill. TOPaCS integrates the WMO CF for CSs into a taxonomy co-designed with stakeholders at different levels, and allows the definition of learning paths, which are a further interactive opportunity for co-development of CSs within the TOPaCS learning ecosystem. Indeed, the approach aims also to guide further instructional strategies and assessments and becomes a starting point to build a common language enabling a better cooperation and exchange between the different CSs training initiatives.

The content and capacity-building relevance of a training programme on Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction in Agriculture (PACC-RRC) conducted by the Institute of BioEconomy, a WMO Regional Training Centre (RTC) in Italy, are described and evaluated in this chapter. The training was delivered to staff members of technical services in West African countries. The innovative method adopted for the training consisted of three consecutive phases: a distance learning pre-course (DLC) phase, a classroom course phase, which consisted of a blend of theoretical and practical sessions, and a post-course phase. Each of the three phases presented strengths and weaknesses to be considered when planning future training programmes. Participants found the comprehensive training experience to be an important step towards improving knowledge and skills that would enable them to be more effective in supporting the farming community to reduce the impact and risk of climate change and disasters in agricultural practices in their respective countries. Overall, the three-phase solution was considered very effective by participants, and they made good use of knowledge acquired during DLC and classroom course in their post-course activities. In order to build long-term sustainability of the project results, the learning materials developed within the project will be catalogued, each module classified on the basis of the competency addressed, reorganized and finally made available for further use by different institutions. The reorganization of the resources collected will involve the creation of course packages (for example, the Training and Operational Principles (T.O.P) Seasonal Forecast Course Package) to be shared.

Climate variability and change are recognised as a major threat for West African agriculture, particularly for smallholder farmers. Moreover, population pressure, poverty, and food insecurity, are worsening the vulnerability of production systems to climate risks. Application of Climate Services in agriculture, specifically Agrometeorological Services, is acknowledged as a valuable innovation to assist decision-making and develop farmers' specific adaptive capacities. In West Africa, the World Meteorological Organisation and National Meteorological Services deployed considerable efforts in the development of Agrometeorological Services. Nevertheless, the impacts of such services on West African farming communities are still largely unknown. This paper aims to delineate the added value of agrometeorological services for farmers within the Agriculture Innovation System of Mauritania. The results of this quali-quantitative assessment demonstrate that farmers use agrometeorological information for a variety of choices: making strategic choice on the seed variety and on the geographical distribution of plots, choosing the most appropriate planting date, better tuning crop development cycle with the rhythm of the rains and choosing favourable periods for different cultural operations. Globally, the effects of all these good practices can be summarized by an increase of crops productivity and a decrease of cropping costs (including opportunity cost) in terms of inputs and working time.

Climate change and increasing extreme events are a major threat to West African farmers, affecting crop production and exacerbating food insecurity. Climate Services, including weather and climate forecasts, are acknowledged as a valuable innovation to support Climate Smart Agriculture. The hypothesis is that agrometeorological information and services can effectively support farmers’ decision-making, improving agricultural productivity and increasing farmer incomes. While considerable research effort has been deployed in the development of climate services, the impacts of such services on West African farming communities are still largely unknown. This paper addresses this lacuna, assessing the use and impacts of climate services on farmers’ behavior and crop productivity within the Agricultural Innovation Systems of four countries: Mauritania, Niger, Ivory Coast and Ghana. The results of this quali-quantitative assessment demonstrate that farmers use the information for a variety of choices with related impacts, which vary by country and agroecosystem.JEL Codes: Q16, Q54, Q55, Q56

In Sahelian countries, a vast number of people are still affected every year by flood despite the efforts to prevent or mitigate these catastrophic events. This phenomenon is exacerbated by the incessant population growth and the increase of extreme natural events. Hence, the development of flood management strategies such as flood hazard mapping and Early Warning Systems has become a crucial objective for the affected nations. This study presents a comprehensive hazard assessment of the Nigerien reach of the Sirba River, the main tributary Middle Niger River. Hazard thresholds were defined both on hydrological analysis and field effects, according to national guidelines. Non-stationary analyses were carried out to consider changes in the hydrological behavior of the Sirba basin over time. Data from topographical land surveys and discharge gauges collected during the 2018 dry and wet seasons were used to implement the hydraulic numerical model of the analyzed reach. The use of the proposed hydraulic model allowed the delineation of flood hazard maps as well the calculation of the flood propagation time from the upstream hydrometric station and the validation of the rating curves of the two gauging sites. These significative outcomes will allow the implementation of the Early Warning System for the river flood hazard and risk reduction plans preparation for each settlement.

Relevant data on hydroclimatic risks collected in LDCs (Least Developed Countries) by intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations, university institutes, research organizations, projects and programs funded by national and international institutions often are not shared in interoperable way for further usage. Currently emerging climate services offered by global and national meteorological organizations are implemented in order to provide stakeholders and political authorities with useful and reliable information for supporting the decision making process and develop strategies for flooding risk management. However, in order to improve the usability and usefulness of information derived from hydrometeorological forecasts and hydrological models, climate services are expected to be tailored to the actual and local decision-making context. Local flood risk areas mapping is an essential information for a wide number of applications, ranging from engineering to climate change studies, and is crucial for planning effective emergency responses. In this contest, we present the SLAPIS (Système Local d'Alerte Précoce pour les Inondations de la Sirba) web application, developed in the framework of ANADIA 2.0 cooperation project (funded by Italian Agency for Development Cooperation) for the implementation of an early warning system, aiming to better tailor hydroclimatic information to the user's needs, both in terms of content and format. In order to improve the effectiveness of the system, stakeholders have been labeled, from local communities to national decision makers, according with their requirements. The study was carried out in the Middle Niger River Basin, focusing on one of its main tributaries, the Sirba River. From the point of view of Geomatics and Information Communication Technologies (ICT), the activities concerned the conceptual and formal data model design, the development of a Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI), a client-server architecture and users' interface, the implementation of standard OWSs (Open Web Services), a Web application and procedures for data flow management from several hydroclimatic data providers. Specific REST Web Services, using JAX-RS technologies, have been implemented in order to allow the communication with other interoperable distributed platforms so enhance the dissemination of the local data. This last task is particularly oriented to the community of experts and researchers who will benefit from this way of data in a standard format exploitable for further analysis. The system also includes the metadata catalog implemented using CKAN allowing data to be findable, accessible, interoperable and re-usable in an easy and standard way. An operational test during the current raining season, conducted with the assistance of the Directorate for Hydrology of Niger, is under way in order to determine the accuracy and improve the reliability of the system. The choice of interoperable web services approach allows to share data and information with other platforms or client software as well as the development of tools for the dissemination of information through ICT applications. In this way it will be possible to provide specific advices for end users at different decision-making levels, bridging the gap between available technology and local users' needs for adaptation, mitigation and flooding risk management in the Sahel.

During the last two decades, the sub-Saharan region has experienced unusual floods that have differentially impacted the region. No official and precise data regarding flood damage and impacts on the population are available, and the magnitude of events are not easily evaluated. Most previous studies have investigated this new threat using data derived from local media sources or world disaster databases. The aim of this study was to provide the scientific community and policy makers with an updated and reliable referenced data source concerning floods in Niger between 1998 and 2015, at national, regional and sub-regional scales. Reliable information regarding floods was derived from the national official flood damage database (ANADIA DB) showing their impact on the country. During the investigated period, considerable numbers regarding flood impacts were found (about 4000 settlements and 1.7 million people were affected by floods). The analysis also indicates a sudden increase in flood impacts since 2010. Regions in the south-west (Tillabery, Dosso and Niamey district) are the most affected, however, this kind of risk involves the whole country, and some particularly vulnerable areas have been identified. A data modeling comprehensive framework based on remotely sensed rainfall (climate hazards group infrared precipitation with stations (CHIRPS)) and vegetation index (moderate resolution imagery spectroradiometer normalized difference vegetation index (MODIS NDVI)) datasets data along with census data were used to investigate which variables are most able to explain the recent and sudden Niger flood vulnerability detected at the departmental scale. Only a few statistically significant flood damage models were found (61 out of 297), due essentially to the non-linearity of the increase in damage time series compared to environmental and climatic trends. The population increase is the most significant variable at national level, however, at regional and sub-regional scales, different patterns provided evidence to identify local triggers for vulnerability.

La region de Sedhiou dans la Moyenne Casamance au sud du Senegal beneficie de conditions pedoclimatiques et hydro-agricoles favorables et d’une longue tradition rizicole, surtout dans les bas-fonds. Depuis les annees 1970, l’Etat senegalais, confronte a des contraintes environnementales et sociales croissantes, a mis en œuvre avec ses partenaires de l’aide au developpement une politique de sauvegarde, rehabilitation et amenagement des vallees casamancaises, surtout destinee a juguler le phenomene de salinisation des terres rizicoles.La riziculture de bas-fond demeure dans ces vallees une activite agricole de subsistance : les pratiques traditionnelles des agriculteurs, notamment des femmes, visent a minimiser les risques ecoclimatiques plus qu’a maximiser la production. Les interventions proposees et poursuivies au cours des annees se sont heurtees a diverses difficultes qui ont limite leurs effets et n’ont pas permis d’en assurer la perennite.L’etude a permis de caracteriser les zones des bas-fonds de la region et d’identifier les principales contraintes endogenes et exogenes d’ordre technique, environnemental et socio-economique, qui affectent durablement la production rizicole locale. Elle a aussi permis de comprendre que les actions de rehabilitation et d’amenagement des bas-fonds ont privilegie les effets a court terme sans traiter les difficultes des agriculteurs a long terme. Cette approche a permis de maintenir la fonctionnalite des amenagements pendant les annees de gestion des projets, mais n’a pas garanti leur durabilite sur le long terme.Pour la relance de la riziculture de bas-fonds dans la region, ce travail propose pour l’avenir de promouvoir des actions de renforcement non seulement liees a la protection et a la securisation des amenagements hydroagricoles, mais egalement adaptees et integrees aux strategies et aux objectifs des agriculteurs et, donc, capables d’assurer la durabilite des interventions. Une demarche operationnelle est proposee comme outil d’etude et d’aide a la realisation des interventions.

This book aims to inspire decision makers and practitioners to change their approach to climate planning in the tropics through the application of modern technologies for characterizing local climate and tracking vulnerability and risk, and using decision-making tools. Drawing on 16 case studies conducted mainly in the Caribbean, Central America, Western and Eastern Africa, and South East Asia it is shown how successful integration of traditional and modern knowledge can enhance disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change in the tropics. The case studies encompass both rural and urban settings and cover different scales: rural communities, cities, and regions. In addition, the book looks to the future of planning by addressing topics of major importance, including residual risk integration in local development plans, damage insurance and the potential role of climate vulnerability reduction credits. In many regions of the tropics, climate planning is growing but has still very low quality. This book identifies the weaknesses and proposes effective solutions.

In the Tropics, a significant increase in the number of cities provided with climate plans by 2020, as announced in the 11th Sustainable development goal of the United Nations, requires an unprecedented effort. To achieve it, we have to simplify the planning process and improve the quality of the plans. The aim of this book was to collect methods and experiences to inspire the simplification of the planning process and increase the quality of climate planning. We focused attention on the three critical phases of the planning process: analysis, decision making in planning, climate measures. Sixteen case studies from Ethiopia, Haiti, Malawi, Mexico, Niger, Senegal, Tanzania and Thailand cover automatic weather stations in remote areas, rainfall estimation gridded datasets, open data for vulnerability index to climate change, early warning systems, quality of climate plans index, multi-risk local assessment, flooding risk evaluation method, backcasting, spatial dimension in disaster risk reduction and resilience, gasification stoves, index-based insurance and vulnerability risk credit. After indicating the possible analyses, 19 recommendations were supplied to the United Nations SDGs monitoring system, the national weather services and those responsible for natural risks, to the Development banks, Official development aid and the research institutions.

Diplomazia2 is framed within the program "Science for Diplomacy: Multi-disciplinary Training Program", and it is the result of closer and more mature collaboration between the Directorate General for Cooperation on Development of the Ministry for Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation (MAECI), the Italian Agency for Cooperation on Development (AICS) and the National Research Council (CNR). The implementation of joint projects such as DIPLOMAzia2 highlights the effectiveness of the diplomacy-science partnership as the driving force behind the achievement of relevant goals jointly pursued by the international community.

Flood events are increasing year by year in the Sahel, mainly caused by climate and land use changes. New strategies and tools are necessary to optimize flooding risk reduction plans. This paper presents a new hydrological method (FREM, Flooding Risk Evaluation Method), based on the curve number runoff estimation. The method can be adopted for small-medium basins and is based on the integration of remote sensing techniques with field surveys and participatory mapping. It consists of preliminary identification of the areas and sub-basins that most contribute to the flood risk; scenarios can then be developed in order to: (i) optimize the placement of traditional water retention structures in the elementary sub-basins that contribute most to the overall risk, (ii) assess the contribution of each hydraulic structure to reduce the total risk, (iii) give a priority ranking to these structures identifying those most urgent. The main advantages of this method are that it is easy to use and can be implemented using free available land cover, soil and morphology data and open-source GIS (Geographic Information System) software. A case study for the Ouro Gueladjo basin (Tillabery Region, Niger) is presented.

In the last seven years, tropical cities with a climate plan have tripled compared to the previous seven years. According to the 11th United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal, climate planning should significantly increase by 2030. The Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction (2015) and the New urban agenda signed in Quito (2016) indicate how to achieve this goal through analysis, categories of plans and specific measures. This chapter identifies the main obstacles to the significant increase in tropical human settlements with a climate plan and the possible solutions. First of all, the distribution and trend at 2030 of tropical human settlements are ascertained. Then local access to information on damage, hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk, and the consideration of these aspects in the national guides to local climate planning are verified. Lastly, the categories of plans and climate measures recommended by the United Nations are compared with those that are most common today, using a database of 401 climate plans for 338 tropical cities relating to 41 countries. The chapter highlights the fact that the prescription for treating tropical cities affected by climate change has been prepared without an accurate diagnosis. Significantly increasing climate planning must consider that small-medium human settlements in the Tropics will prevail at least until 2030. And most effort will be required from Developing and Least Developed Countries. The recommendations of the United Nations concerning the preliminary analyses ignore the fact that local authorities usually do not have access to the necessary information. Climate plans and recommended measures are not those currently in use. We propose three areas of action to facilitate the mainstreaming of the recommendations in the tropical context. They require a renewal of the local planning process if we intend to reach the 11th SDG by 2030.

La filiere oignon represente pour des milliers de producteurs d’Afrique de l’Ouest, la base de leurs moyens d’existence. Cette espece est cultivee dans plusieurs pays mais, a l’exception du Niger et du Burkina Faso qui produisent des quantites qui excedent la demande interieure, la production n’arrive pas souvent a satisfaire les besoins de consommation locaux. Le Niger revendique la premiere place comme exportateur d’oignon en Afrique de l’Ouest et son reseau commercial permet d’approvisionner les principaux marches cotiers de la sous-region. En revanche, le Benin est un importateur net, le marche de Cotonou etant approvisionne pendant une bonne partie de l’annee par l’oignon nigerien. Afin de comprendre la relation entre les filieres nigerienne et beninoise et les mecanismes permettant a l’oignon nigerien d’etre vendu sur les marches cotiers a un prix concurrentiel par rapport a l’oignon local, l’etude propose une analyse comparee des aspects lies a la production et a la commercialisation de ces deux filieres, a partir des poles de production de Keita (Niger) et Malanville (Benin) qui approvisionnent le marche de Dantokpa a Cotonou (Benin). L’etude montre que les deux filieres sont a la fois concurrentielles et complementaires et que la filiere nigerienne a un avantage comparatif net au niveau de la production, avec des couts inferieurs et un benefice au producteur superieur. En plus, l’organisation du reseau commercial nigerien permet de minimiser les risques lies au commerce sur longue distance en consentant a l’oignon nigerien d’etre economiquement competitif sur le marche de Cotonou. De son cote, le renforcement de la filiere beninoise au niveau de la production, du stockage et de la commercialisation devrait suivre une approche de complementarite, plutot que de concurrence, avec la production nigerienne. Dans une perspective d’integration regionale, il serait plus opportun de valoriser des productions locales ayant un avantage comparatif sur les marches sous-regionaux.