Search

Ancestral inference for branching processes in random environments involves determining the ancestor distribution parameters using the population sizes of descendant generations. In this paper, we introduce a new methodology for ancestral inference utilizing the generalized method of moments. We demonstrate that the estimator's behavior is critically influenced by the coefficient of variation of the environment sequence. Furthermore, despite the process's evolution being heavily dependent on the offspring means of various generations, we show that the joint limiting distribution of the ancestor and offspring estimators of the mean, under appropriate centering and scaling, decouple and converge to independent Gaussian random variables when the ratio of the number of generations to the logarithm of the number of replicates converges to zero. Additionally, we provide estimators for the limiting variance and illustrate our findings through numerical experiments and data from Polymerase Chain Reaction experiments and COVID-19 data.

Hellinger distance has been widely used to derive objective functions that are alternatives to maximum likelihood methods. Motivated by recent regulatory privacy requirements, estimators satisfying differential privacy constraints are being derived. In this paper, we describe different notions of privacy using divergences and establish that Hellinger distance minimizes the added variance within the class of power divergences for an additive Gaussian mechanism. We demonstrate that a new definition of privacy, namely Hellinger differential privacy, shares several features of the standard notion of differential privacy while allowing for sharper inference. Using these properties, we develop private versions of gradient descent and Newton-Raphson algorithms for obtaining private minimum Hellinger distance estimators, which are robust and first-order efficient. Using numerical experiments, we illustrate the finite sample performance and verify that they retain their robustness properties under gross-error contamination.

Symmetric NACA airfoils tend to undergo abrupt stall characteristics at higher angle of attacks. The abrupt stall has deteriorating effect on lift as well as the efficiency of the airfoils. Abruptness in stall restricts the airfoil to operate only at lower angle of attacks. So, in order to improve the efficiency of airfoils at higher angle of attacks and make it suitable for operation over higher range of angle of attacks, there are many flow control techniques. One such technique is addition of leading-edge protuberance. Leading-edge protuberances are the leading-edge modification of the wing. Leading-edge of the wing is modified with sinusoidal structural modification. This modification has two parameters i.e., Pitch and Amplitude. Many configurations of the protuberances can be obtained by changing the Pitch to Amplitude ratio of the protuberance. In the present work, the Reynolds number is 50k for NACA 0009. The Pitch to Amplitude ratio is varied from PAR1 to PAR27. PAR6 is found to be the better case which has higher lift and efficiency in the post-stall angle of attacks. At the deep stalling AOA of the baseline, i.e., at 13.6o, PAR6 is found to have the highest increase in lift and efficiency compared to the other post stalling AOAs with it having around 39.6% more lift and 27.3% more efficiency compared to the baseline., Comment: 12 Pages, 16 figures

When multitudes of features can plausibly be associated with a response, both privacy considerations and model parsimony suggest grouping them to increase the predictive power of a regression model. Specifically, the identification of groups of predictors significantly associated with the response variable eases further downstream analysis and decision-making. This paper proposes a new data analysis methodology that utilizes the high-dimensional predictor space to construct an implicit network with weighted edges %and weights on the edges to identify significant associations between the response and the predictors. Using a population model for groups of predictors defined via network-wide metrics, a new supervised grouping algorithm is proposed to determine the correct group, with probability tending to one as the sample size diverges to infinity. For this reason, we establish several theoretical properties of the estimates of network-wide metrics. A novel model-assisted bootstrap procedure that substantially decreases computational complexity is developed, facilitating the assessment of uncertainty in the estimates of network-wide metrics. The proposed methods account for several challenges that arise in the high-dimensional data setting, including (i) a large number of predictors, (ii) uncertainty regarding the true statistical model, and (iii) model selection variability. The performance of the proposed methods is demonstrated through numerical experiments, data from sports analytics, and breast cancer data.

Motivated by applications to the study of depth functions for tree-indexed random variables generated by point processes, we describe functional limit theorems for the intensity measure of point processes. Specifically, we establish uniform laws of large numbers and uniform central limit theorems over a class of bounded measurable functions for estimates of the intensity measure. Using these results, we derive the uniform asymptotic properties of half-space depth and, as corollaries, obtain the asymptotic behavior of medians and other quantiles of the standardized intensity measure. Additionally, we obtain uniform concentration upper bound for the estimator of half-space depth. As a consequence of our results, we also derive uniform consistency and uniform asymptotic normality of Lotka-Nagaev and Harris-type estimators for the Laplace transform of the point processes in a branching random walk., Comment: 38 pages

Motivated by applications to COVID dynamics, we describe a branching process in random environments model $\{Z_n\}$ whose characteristics change when crossing upper and lower thresholds. This introduces a cyclical path behavior involving periods of increase and decrease leading to supercritical and subcritical regimes. Even though the process is not Markov, we identify subsequences at random time points $\{(\tau_j, \nu_j)\}$ - specifically the values of the process at crossing times, {\it{viz.}}, $\{(Z_{\tau_j}, Z_{\nu_j})\}$ - along which the process retains the Markov structure. Under mild moment and regularity conditions, we establish that the subsequences possess a regenerative structure and prove that the limiting normal distribution of the growth rates of the process in supercritical and subcritical regimes decouple. For this reason, we establish limit theorems concerning the length of supercritical and subcritical regimes and the proportion of time the process spends in these regimes. As a byproduct of our analysis, we explicitly identify the limiting variances in terms of the functionals of the offspring distribution, threshold distribution, and environmental sequences., Comment: 47 pages, 3 figures, 5 tables

Local general depth ($LGD$) functions are used for describing the local geometric features and mode(s) in multivariate distributions. In this paper, we undertake a rigorous systematic study of $LGD$ and establish several analytical and statistical properties. First, we show that, when the underlying probability distribution is absolutely continuous with density $f(\cdot)$, the scaled version of $LGD$ (referred to as $\tau$-approximation) converges, uniformly and in $L^d(\mathbb{R}^p)$ to $f(\cdot)$ when $\tau$ converges to zero. Second, we establish that, as the sample size diverges to infinity the centered and scaled sample $LGD$ converge in distribution to a centered Gaussian process uniformly in the space of bounded functions on $\mathcal{H}_G$, a class of functions yielding $LGD$. Third, using the sample version of the $\tau$-approximation ($S \tau A$) and the gradient system analysis, we develop a new clustering algorithm. The validity of this algorithm requires several results concerning the uniform finite difference approximation of the gradient system associated with $S \tau A$. For this reason, we establish \emph{Bernstein}-type inequality for deviations between the centered and scaled sample $LGD$, which is also of independent interest. Finally, invoking the above results, we establish consistency of the clustering algorithm. Applications of the proposed methods to mode estimation and upper level set estimation are also provided. Finite sample performance of the methodology are evaluated using numerical experiments and data analysis., Comment: 39+238 pages, 1+126 figures, 1+15 tables

Bandit learning algorithms typically involve the balance of exploration and exploitation. However, in many practical applications, worst-case scenarios needing systematic exploration are seldom encountered. In this work, we consider a smoothed setting for structured linear contextual bandits where the adversarial contexts are perturbed by Gaussian noise and the unknown parameter $\theta^*$ has structure, e.g., sparsity, group sparsity, low rank, etc. We propose simple greedy algorithms for both the single- and multi-parameter (i.e., different parameter for each context) settings and provide a unified regret analysis for $\theta^*$ with any assumed structure. The regret bounds are expressed in terms of geometric quantities such as Gaussian widths associated with the structure of $\theta^*$. We also obtain sharper regret bounds compared to earlier work for the unstructured $\theta^*$ setting as a consequence of our improved analysis. We show there is implicit exploration in the smoothed setting where a simple greedy algorithm works.

Several important families of computational and statistical results in machine learning and randomized algorithms rely on uniform bounds on quadratic forms of random vectors or matrices. Such results include the Johnson-Lindenstrauss (J-L) Lemma, the Restricted Isometry Property (RIP), randomized sketching algorithms, and approximate linear algebra. The existing results critically depend on statistical independence, e.g., independent entries for random vectors, independent rows for random matrices, etc., which prevent their usage in dependent or adaptive modeling settings. In this paper, we show that such independence is in fact not needed for such results which continue to hold under fairly general dependence structures. In particular, we present uniform bounds on random quadratic forms of stochastic processes which are conditionally independent and sub-Gaussian given another (latent) process. Our setup allows general dependencies of the stochastic process on the history of the latent process and the latent process to be influenced by realizations of the stochastic process. The results are thus applicable to adaptive modeling settings and also allows for sequential design of random vectors and matrices. We also discuss stochastic process based forms of J-L, RIP, and sketching, to illustrate the generality of the results.

This paper is concerned with Bayesian inferential methods for data from controlled branching processes that account for model robustness through the use of disparities. Under regularity conditions, we establish that estimators built on disparity-based posterior, such as expectation and maximum a posteriori estimates, are consistent and efficient under the posited model. Additionally, we show that the estimates are robust to model misspecification and presence of aberrant outliers. To this end, we develop several fundamental ideas relating minimum disparity estimators to Bayesian estimators built on the disparity-based posterior, for dependent tree-structured data. We illustrate the methodology through a simulated example and apply our methods to a real data set from cell kinetics., Comment: Paper and suplementary material

The stochastic linear bandit problem proceeds in rounds where at each round the algorithm selects a vector from a decision set after which it receives a noisy linear loss parameterized by an unknown vector. The goal in such a problem is to minimize the (pseudo) regret which is the difference between the total expected loss of the algorithm and the total expected loss of the best fixed vector in hindsight. In this paper, we consider settings where the unknown parameter has structure, e.g., sparse, group sparse, low-rank, which can be captured by a norm, e.g., $L_1$, $L_{(1,2)}$, nuclear norm. We focus on constructing confidence ellipsoids which contain the unknown parameter across all rounds with high-probability. We show the radius of such ellipsoids depend on the Gaussian width of sets associated with the norm capturing the structure. Such characterization leads to tighter confidence ellipsoids and, therefore, sharper regret bounds compared to bounds in the existing literature which are based on the ambient dimensionality.

Adaptive randomly reinforced urn (ARRU) is a two-color urn model where the updating process is defined by a sequence of non-negative random vectors $\{(D_{1,n}, D_{2,n});n\geq1\}$ and randomly evolving thresholds which utilize accruing statistical information for the updates. Let $m_1=E[D_{1,n}]$ and $m_2=E[D_{2,n}]$. Motivated by applications, in this paper we undertake a detailed study of the dynamics of the ARRU model. First, for the case $m_1 \neq m_2$, we establish $L_1$ bounds on the increments of the urn proportion at fixed and increasing times under very weak assumptions on the random threshold sequence. As a consequence, we deduce weak consistency of the evolving urn proportions. Second, under slightly stronger conditions, we establish the strong consistency of the urn proportions for all finite values of $m_1$ and $m_2$. Specifically, we show that when $m_1=m_2$ the proportion converges to a non-degenerate random variable. Third, we establish the asymptotic distribution, after appropriate centering and scaling, of the proportion of sampled balls in the case $m_1=m_2$. In the process, we settle the issue of asymptotic distribution of the number of sampled balls for a randomly reinforced urn (RRU). To address the technical issues, we establish results on the harmonic moments of the total number of balls in the urn at different times under very weak conditions, which is of independent interest., Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1502.06130

Analysis of non-asymptotic estimation error and structured statistical recovery based on norm regularized regression, such as Lasso, needs to consider four aspects: the norm, the loss function, the design matrix, and the noise model. This paper presents generalizations of such estimation error analysis on all four aspects compared to the existing literature. We characterize the restricted error set where the estimation error vector lies, establish relations between error sets for the constrained and regularized problems, and present an estimation error bound applicable to any norm. Precise characterizations of the bound is presented for isotropic as well as anisotropic subGaussian design matrices, subGaussian noise models, and convex loss functions, including least squares and generalized linear models. Generic chaining and associated results play an important role in the analysis. A key result from the analysis is that the sample complexity of all such estimators depends on the Gaussian width of a spherical cap corresponding to the restricted error set. Further, once the number of samples $n$ crosses the required sample complexity, the estimation error decreases as $\frac{c}{\sqrt{n}}$, where $c$ depends on the Gaussian width of the unit norm ball., Comment: Fixed technical issues. Generalized some results

The generalized P\`olya urn (GPU) models and their variants have been investigated in several disciplines. However, typical assumptions made with respect to the GPU do not include urn models with diagonal replacement matrix, which arise in several applications, specifically in clinical trials. To facilitate mathematical analyses of models in these applications, we introduce an adaptive randomly reinforced urn model that uses accruing statistical information to adaptively skew the urn proportion toward specific targets. We study several probabilistic aspects that are important in implementing the urn model in practice. Specifically, we establish the law of large numbers and a central limit theorem for the number of sampled balls. To establish these results, we develop new techniques involving last exit times and crossing time analyses of the proportion of balls in the urn. To obtain precise estimates in these techniques, we establish results on the harmonic moments of the total number of balls in the urn. Finally, we describe our main results in the context an application to response-adaptive randomization in clinical trials. Our simulation experiments in this context demonstrate the ease and scope of our model.

Multi-task learning (MTL) aims to improve generalization performance by learning multiple related tasks simultaneously. While sometimes the underlying task relationship structure is known, often the structure needs to be estimated from data at hand. In this paper, we present a novel family of models for MTL, applicable to regression and classification problems, capable of learning the structure of task relationships. In particular, we consider a joint estimation problem of the task relationship structure and the individual task parameters, which is solved using alternating minimization. The task relationship structure learning component builds on recent advances in structure learning of Gaussian graphical models based on sparse estimators of the precision (inverse covariance) matrix. We illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model on a variety of synthetic and benchmark datasets for regression and classification. We also consider the problem of combining climate model outputs for better projections of future climate, with focus on temperature in South America, and show that the proposed model outperforms several existing methods for the problem., Comment: 23rd ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management - CIKM 2014