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Uncertainties in simulated evapotranspiration from land surface models over a 14-year Mediterranean crop succession. 5. Ileaps Science Conference

International audience; To improve model estimates of soil water and heat flow by land surface models (LSMs), in particular in the first few centimetres of the near-surface soil profile, we have to consider in detail all the relevant physical processes involved (see e.g. Milly, 1982). Often, thermal and iso-thermal vapour fluxes in LSMs are neglected and the simplified Richard's equation is used as a result. Vapour transfer may affect the water fluxes and heat transfer in LSMs used for hydrometeorological and climate simulations. Processes occurring in the top 50 cm soil may be relevant for water and heat flux dynamics in the deeper layers, as well as for estimates of evapotranspiration and heterotrophic respiration, or even for climate and weather predictions. Water vapour transfer, which was not incorporated in previous versions of the MOSES/JULES model (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator; Cox et al., 1999), has now been implemented. Furthermore, we also assessed the effect of the soil vertical resolution on the simulated soil moisture and temperature profiles and the effect of the processes occurring at the upper boundary, mainly in terms of infiltration rates and evapotranspiration. SiSPAT (Simple Soil Plant Atmosphere Transfer Model; Braud et al., 1995) was initially used to quantify the changes that we expect to find when we introduce vapour transfer in JULES, involving parameters such as thermal vapour conductivity and diffusivity. Also, this approach allows us to compare JULES to a more complete and complex numerical model. Water vapour flux varied with soil texture, depth and soil moisture content, but overall our results suggested that water vapour fluxes change temperature gradients in the entire soil profile and introduce an overall surface cooling effect. Increasing the resolution smoothed and reduced temperature differences between liquid (L) and liquid/vapour (LV) simulations at all depths, and introduced a temperature increase over the entire soil profile. Thermal gradients rather than soil water potential gradients seem to cause temporal and spatial (vertical) soil temperature variability. We conclude that a multi-soil layer configuration may improve soil water dynamics, heat transfer and coupling of these processes, as well as evapotranspiration estimates and land surface-atmosphere coupling. However, a compromise should be reached between numerical and process-simulation aspects.

A realistic representation of the North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks is crucial as it allows, for example, explaining potential changes in U.S. landfalling systems. Here, the authors present a tentative study that examines the ability of recent climate models to represent North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. Tracks from two types of climate models are evaluated: explicit tracks are obtained from tropical cyclones simulated in regional or global climate models with moderate to high horizontal resolution (1°-0.25°), and downscaled tracks are obtained using a downscaling technique with large-scale environmental fields from a subset of these models. For both configurations, tracks are objectively separated into four groups using a cluster technique, leading to a zonal and a meridional separation of the tracks. The meridional separation largely captures the separation between deep tropical and subtropical, hybrid or baroclinic cyclones, while the zonal separation segregates Gulf of Mexico and Cape Verde storms. The properties of the tracks' seasonality, intensity, and power dissipation index in each cluster are documented for both configurations. The authors' results show that, except for the seasonality, the downscaled tracks better capture the observed characteristics of the clusters. The authors also use three different idealized scenarios to examine the possible future changes of tropical cyclone tracks under 1) warming sea surface temperature, 2) increasing carbon dioxide, and 3) a combination of the two. The response to each scenario is highly variable depending on the simulation considered. Finally, the authors examine the role of each cluster in these future changes and find no preponderant contribution of any single cluster over the others.

Starting to resolve the oceanic mesoscale in climate models is a step change in model fidelity. This study examines how certain obstinate biases in the midlatitude North Atlantic respond to increasing resolution (from 1° to 0.25° in the ocean) and how such biases in sea surface temperature (SST) affect the atmosphere. Using a multimodel ensemble of historical climate simulations run at different horizontal resolutions, it is shown that a severe cold SST bias in the central North Atlantic, common to many ocean models, is significantly reduced with increasing resolution. The associated bias in the time-mean meridional SST gradient is shown to relate to a positive bias in low-level baroclinicity, while the cold SST bias causes biases also in static stability and diabatic heating in the interior of the atmosphere. The changes in baroclinicity and diabatic heating brought by increasing resolution lead to improvements in European blocking and eddy-driven jet variability. Across the multimodel ensemble a clear relationship is found between the climatological meridional SST gradients in the broader Gulf Stream Extension area and two aspects of the atmospheric circulation: the frequency of high-latitude blocking and the southern-jet regime. This relationship is thought to reflect the two-way interaction (with a positive feedback) between the respective oceanic and atmospheric anomalies. These North Atlantic SST anomalies are shown to be important in forcing significant responses in the midlatitude atmospheric circulation, including jet variability and the storm track. Further increases in oceanic and atmospheric resolution are expected to lead to additional improvements in the representation of Euro-Atlantic climate.

A dominant paradigm for mid-latitude air-sea interaction identifies the synoptic-scale atmospheric “noise” as the main driver for the observed ocean surface variability. While this conceptual model successfully holds over most of the mid-latitude ocean surface, its soundness over frontal zones (including western boundary currents; WBC) characterized by intense mesoscale activity, has been questioned in a number of studies suggesting a driving role for the small scale ocean dynamics (mesoscale oceanic eddies) in the modulation of air-sea interaction. In this context, climate models provide a powerful experimental device to inspect the emerging scale-dependent nature of mid-latitude air-sea interaction. This study assesses the impact of model resolution on the representation of air-sea interaction over the Gulf Stream region, in a multi-model ensemble of present-climate simulations performed using a common experimental design. Lead-lag correlation and covariance patterns between sea surface temperature (SST) and turbulent heat flux (THF) are diagnosed to identify the leading regimes of air-sea interaction in a region encompassing both the Gulf Stream system and the North Atlantic subtropical basin. Based on these statistical metrics it is found that coupled models based on “laminar” (eddy-parameterised) and eddy-permitting oceans are able to discriminate between an ocean-driven regime, dominating the region controlled by the Gulf Stream dynamics, and an atmosphere-driven regime, typical of the open ocean regions. However, the increase of model resolution leads to a better representation of SST and THF cross-covariance patterns and functional forms, and the major improvements can be largely ascribed to a refinement of the oceanic model component. The authors of this study wish to thank two reviewers for their many insightful comments. AB, PA, ES, RH, JG-S, DP, ESG, MJR, CR, JS, PV acknowledge PRIMAVERA funding received from the European Commission under Grant Agreement 641727 of the Horizon 2020 research programme. JG-S was additionally supported by the Spanish ‘Ramón y Cajal’ programme (RYC-2016-21181). The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest. The datasets used in this work are cited in this manuscript with appropriate doi’s in publicly available archives.