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Background: Care for infants born at 22-24 weeks' gestation varies globally, with an increasing willingness to provide survival-focused ('active') care for infants born at 22 weeks' gestation in recent years. This study aims to report changes in care for infants born at 22-24 weeks before and after the introduction of a statewide guideline for extreme prematurity (EP)., Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted, including all live births at 22-24 weeks in tertiary perinatal centres from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2022 in Victoria, Australia. Medical records were reviewed to obtain antenatal history and perinatal outcomes. Data on in utero referral and transfer to tertiary perinatal centres were sourced from the statewide perinatal emergency retrieval service (Paediatric Infant Perinatal Emergency Retrieval, PIPER) database. Changes in PIPER referrals and transfers, survival-focused care and survival at 28 days preguideline and postguideline were assessed using logistic regression., Results: Following the guideline, at 22 weeks' gestation, there was an increase in referrals to PIPER and a 3.31 (95% CI 1.84 to 5.95) higher likelihood of in utero transfer to tertiary centres.Following the guideline, infants had a 6.67 (95% CI 1.40 to 31.72) higher likelihood of receiving survival-focused care at 22 weeks, and a 5.57 (95% CI 1.22 to 25.44) higher likelihood at 23 weeks. All 24-week live births received survival-focused care at birth. The 28-day survival for infants who received survival-focused care was unchanged preguideline and postguideline., Conclusion: Following the publication of the EP guideline in Victoria, in utero referrals and transfers at 22 weeks' gestation have increased, as has survival-focused management of inborn live births at 22-24 weeks., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Context: Current clinical guidelines recommend a drug holiday after extended use of oral bisphosphonates. However, no studies have investigated the effect of drug holidays before hip fractures on postfracture mortality., Objective: This work aimed to investigate the effect of a drug holiday on postfracture mortality in patients with extended use of oral bisphosphonates., Methods: This retrospective, population-based cohort study took place among all patients with hip fractures in Victoria, Australia, from 2014 to 2018. Patients were adherent to oral alendronate or risedronate for 5 years or more prior to hip fracture. Group-based trajectory modeling categorized patients into different bisphosphonate usage after 5-year good adherence. The main outcome measure was postfracture mortality., Results: We identified 365 patients with good adherence (medication possession ratio ≥80%) to oral alendronate/risedronate for 5 years or more. Most patients (69%) continued to use oral bisphosphonates until admission for hip fracture; 17% had discontinued for 1 year and 14% had discontinued for 2 years. Postfracture mortality was higher in patients who had discontinued risedronate for 1 year (hazard ratio [HR] 2.37; 95% CI, 1.24-4.53) and 2 years (HR 3.08; 95% CI, 1.48-6.41) prior to hip fracture. No increase or decrease in postfracture mortality was observed in patients who had discontinued alendronate for 1 year (HR 0.59; 95% CI, 0.29-1.18) or 2 years (HR 1.05; 95% CI, 0.57-1.93) prior to hip fracture., Conclusion: Postfracture mortality is higher in people who discontinue risedronate, but not alendronate, for 1 or 2 years after being adherent to treatment for at least 5 years. The type of bisphosphonate may be a factor to consider when planning drug holidays., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Endocrine Society.)

There has been limited research on the health impacts of extreme bushfire exposure among emergency responders (ER) involved in suppressing extreme bushfires. This study aimed to evaluate the associations between extreme bushfires and ER's compensated injury and illness in Victoria, Australia. State-wide ER compensation claims from January 2005 to April 2023 were analysed. Logistic regression modelling was used to identify factors associated with compensation claims during the extreme bushfire periods in 2009 and 2019/20, compared to all other claims, adjusting for seasonality (summer). Of the 44,164 included claims, 1105 (2.5%) had recorded injury/disease onset dates within extreme bushfire periods, and 11,642 (26.4%) occurred in summer months. Over half of claims were made by police (52.4%), followed by ambulance officers/paramedics (27.2%) and firefighters (20.5%). Extreme bushfire period claims were associated with older workers (odds ratio/OR = 1.58,95%CI = 1.30-1.92, ages ≥ 55 vs. 35-44 years). Mental disorders (OR = 1.61,95%CI = 1.25-2.07), intracranial injuries (OR = 3.04,95%CI = 1.69-5.48) and infections/parasites (OR = 3.11,95%CI = 1.61-5.98) vs. wounds were associated with extreme bushfire period claims. Given the expected increase in extreme bushfire events and the ageing workforce, study findings underscore the importance of primary and secondary prevention in ER. This can include periodic health surveillance for older workers, access to early treatment, and ongoing support for mental health conditions., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

In the last 10-15 years, there has been a global resurgence of scarlet fever, an infection historically associated with significant morbidity and mortality. It is unknown whether scarlet fever incidence has increased in Australia. We aimed to examine the incidence, predictors and severity of scarlet fever in the state of Victoria, Australia from 2007 to 2017, analyzing scarlet fever emergency department (ED) presentations, hospitalizations and deaths. Of the 1 578 scarlet fever cases during the study period, most occurred in children aged <10 years (1 344, 85%), in males (882, 56%), and during winter and spring months (918, 57%). There were no deaths with scarlet fever, however, 374 cases (24%) were admitted to hospital. The annual incidence of scarlet fever was stable during the study period (mean, 2.5; range, 1.9-3.1 cases per 100 000). Annual incidence was highest in children aged <5 years (19.3 per 100 000), and was 21% higher in males than females, adjusting for age and year (incidence rate ratio, 1.21, 95%CI 1.09-1.34). Whilst scarlet fever ED presentations and hospitalizations were stable in Victoria from 2007 to 2017, the recent identification of a Streptococcus pyogenes variant in Australia associated with epidemic scarlet fever overseas highlights the risk of future outbreaks.

Seasonal influenza epidemics result in high levels of healthcare utilization. Vaccination is an effective strategy to reduce the influenza-related burden of disease. However, reporting vaccine effectiveness does not convey the population impacts of influenza vaccination. We aimed to calculate the burden of influenza-related hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) attendance averted by influenza vaccination in Victoria, Australia, from 2017 to 2019, and associated economic savings. We applied a compartmental model to hospitalizations and ED attendances with influenza-specific, and pneumonia and influenza (P&I) with the International Classification of Diseases, 10 th Revision, Australian Modification (ICD-10-AM) diagnostic codes of J09-J11 and J09-J18, respectively. We estimated an annual average of 7657 (120 per 100000 population) hospitalizations and 20560 (322 per 100000 population) ED attendances over the study period, associated with A$85 million hospital expenditure. We estimated that influenza vaccination averted an annual average of 1182 [range: 556 - 2277] hospitalizations and 3286 [range: 1554 - 6257] ED attendances and reduced the demand for healthcare services at the influenza season peak. This equated to approximately A13 [range: A6 - A25] million of savings over the study period. Calculating the burden averted is feasible in Australia and auseful approach to demonstrate the health and economic benefits of influenza vaccination.

Background: In Australia, lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related deaths. In Victoria, the mortality risk is assumed to vary across Local Government Areas (LGAs) due to variations in socioeconomic advantage, remoteness, and healthcare accessibility. Thus, we applied Bayesian spatial survival models to examine the geographic variation in lung cancer survival in Victoria., Methods: Data on lung cancer cases were extracted from the Victorian Lung Cancer Registry (VLCR). To account for spatial dependence and risk factors of survival in lung cancer patients, we employed a Bayesian spatial survival model. Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) prior was assigned to model the spatial dependence. Deviance Information Criterion (DIC), Watanabe Akaike Information Criterion (WAIC), and Log Pseudo Marginal Likelihood (LPML) were used for model comparison. In the final best-fitted model, the Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) with the 95% Credible Interval (CrI) was reported. The outcome variable was the survival status of lung cancer patients, defined as whether they survived or died during the follow-up period (death was our interest)., Results: Our study revealed substantial variations in lung cancer mortality in Victoria. Poor Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status, diagnosed at a regional hospital, Small Cell Lung Cancer (SCLC), advanced age, and advanced clinical stage were associated with a higher risk of mortality, whereas being female, presented at Multidisciplinary Team (MDT) meeting, and diagnosed at a metropolitan private hospital were significantly associated with a lower risk of mortality., Conclusion: Identifying geographical disparities in lung cancer survival may help shape healthcare policy to implement more targeted and effective lung cancer care services., (© 2024 The Author(s). Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Objectives: To describe the operational model, epidemiology and outcomes of COVID-19 cases managed by the first decentralised Victorian Public Health Unit (PHU) in the Barwon South-West (BSW) region in 2020., Methods: The Barwon Health team used a clinician-led, locally-based interprofessional model of care, combining clinical care and monitoring, contact tracing and public health measures., Results: From 7th March to 5th October 2020, 575 confirmed COVID-19 cases (82 in Wave 1; 493 in Wave 2) were identified in residents of the BSW region. Overall, 4.7% were admitted to local hospitals (0.7% to intensive care units) and 1.7% died. COVID-19 incidence in the region was 129 cases/100,000. Wave 2 in the region featured community transmission in high-risk settings and among culturally and linguistically diverse and mobile populations. Within 3 months of the initial local case in Wave 2, SARS-COV-2 was eliminated from the community., Conclusions: A local interprofessional model of care was key to the containment of community transmission and complex outbreaks with the elimination of COVID-19 in the community., Implications for Public Health: Key successes and learnings from the BSW PHU contributed to the improvement of statewide systems and responses and provided an impetus for the implementation of a decentralised public health model for Victoria., Competing Interests: Conflicts of interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Using population-level cancer diagnosis data, we compared cancer incidence in locations affected by smoke from a six week-long open cut coal mine fire in regional Victoria, Australia, up to seven years following the event. There was no detectable effect on cancer incidence overall. While several subgroups exhibited changes, these were more likely due to statistical chance rather than real effects. These findings may be limited by low statistical power and short duration of follow up. To confirm the influence of open cut coal mine fires on cancer incidence, further research and an extended follow-up duration are necessary., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest MJA holds investigator-initiated grants from Pfizer, Boehringer-Ingelheim, GSK and Sanofi for unrelated research. He has undertaken an unrelated consultancy for Sanofi. He has also received a speaker’s fee from GSK. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Issue Addressed: The implementation of quick response (QR) code check-in compliance behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic featured in infection control strategies in several global jurisdictions, but was of particular interest in the Australian context, where it became mandated on a nationwide scale. We aimed to identify the salient beliefs people hold toward complying with the QR code check-in using a Theory of Planned Behaviour belief-based framework., Methods: An elicitation study using open-ended questions (Queensland; N = 93, M age  = 4.77 years, SD = 13.62 and Victoria; N = 76, M age  = 44.92 years, SD = 11.63) and a prospective correlational study using a two-wave online survey (Queensland; N = 290, M age  = 38.99, 46.6% female and Victoria; N = 290, M age  = 38.27, 53.4% female) were conducted., Results: Qualitative data were coded through an iterative content analysis, while quantitative data were analysed using linear multiple regression. Behavioural, normative and control beliefs were associated with intention and behaviour in both samples. Variation in beliefs across the states also were observed., Conclusions: Across both samples, beliefs in positive outcomes consistently exhibited stronger associations with both intention and behaviour than the reported negative outcomes. Distinct differences emerged between the two samples in terms of regression effects. SO WHAT?: Results indicate individual experience may affect the beliefs which guide behaviour, supporting the potential efficacy of health promotion campaigns tapping into context specific beliefs and experiences if QR code check-in is to be implemented as an infection control measure in future., (© 2024 The Authors. Health Promotion Journal of Australia published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Australian Health Promotion Association.)

In February 2023, a report of morbidity and mortality in waterbirds triggered a collaborative regional wildlife disease outbreak investigation and response, led by Parks Victoria. Triage, rehabilitation and diagnosis of sick and dead birds were undertaken by Zoos Victoria (ZV), Agriculture Victoria, Vets for Compassion, Wildlife Victoria and Melbourne Veterinary School (MVS). The field response focused on collection of sick and dead birds for wildlife welfare, for diagnosis, and to reduce environmental contamination. Botulism was suspected, based on clinical signs and lack of significant gross pathology, and this diagnosis was confirmed by PCR testing. Low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) viruses non H5 or H7 were detected in two birds and ruled out in all in others tested. These incidental, non-clinical LPAI detections are considered part of the natural wild bird virus community in Australia. A number of elements contributed to the collaborative effort. Regional individuals had the necessary connections for reporting, collecting and transporting birds. There was rapid determination by the Victorian Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action (DEECA) that Parks Victoria, as the land managers, should lead the response. Zoos Victoria provided capacity and expertise in wildlife triage and rehabilitation, and Agriculture Victoria, ZV and MVS were responsible for veterinary management of the response and diagnosis. Field investigation and response were conducted by Parks Victoria, Agriculture Victoria, MVS and veterinary teams from Vets for Compassion and Wildlife Victoria. Wildlife Health Australia (WHA) provided guidance and information, approved National Significant Disease Investigation Program funding and captured the event in the national wildlife health information database. Communication and media were important for community understanding of the event., (© 2024 The Author(s). Australian Veterinary Journal published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Australian Veterinary Association.)

Background: Current guidelines highlight a paucity of evidence guiding optimal timing for non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) in high-risk and non-high-risk cases., Aim: We assessed long-term major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in NSTEMI patients undergoing early (<24 h) versus delayed (>24 h) coronary angiography at 6 years. Secondary end-points included all-cause mortality and cumulative MACE outcomes., Methods: Baseline characteristics and clinical outcomes were assessed among 355 patients presenting to a tertiary regional hospital between 2017 and 2018. Cox proportional hazard models were generated for MACE and all-cause mortality outcomes, adjusting for the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score, patient demographics, biomarkers and comorbidities., Results: Two hundred and seventy patients were included; 147 (54.4%) and 123 (45.6%) underwent early and delayed coronary angiography respectively. Median time to coronary angiography was 13.3 and 45.4 h respectively. At 6 years, 103 patients (38.1%) experienced MACE; 41 in the early group and 62 in the delayed group (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.23; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.50-3.31). After multivariable adjustment, the delayed group had higher rates of MACE (HR = 1.79; 95% CI = 1.19-2.70), all-cause mortality (HR = 2.76; 95% CI = 1.36-5.63) and cumulative MACE (incidence rate ratio = 1.54; 95% CI = 1.12-2.11). Subgroup analysis of MACE outcomes in rural and weekend NSTEMI presentations was not significant between early and delayed coronary angiography (HR = 1.49; 95% CI = 0.83-2.62)., Conclusion: Higher MACE rates in the delayed intervention group suggest further investigation is needed. Randomised control trials would be well suited to assess the role of early invasive intervention across all NSTEMI risk groups., (© 2024 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.)

Buruli ulcer is a chronic ulcerative disease of the skin and subcutaneous tissues caused by infection with Mycobacterium ulcerans. Although Australian possums are known to be susceptible to Buruli ulcer, many aspects of the disease in possums, including welfare impacts, remain largely unreported. Severe clinical Buruli ulcer was identified in four common ringtail possums (Pseudocheirus peregrinus) from Melbourne, Victoria. All four possums were euthanased due to the presence of deep ulcerative lesions on paws, with extensive tissue necrosis that exposed bones and tendons in three cases. Histologically, there was severe ulcerative necrotising pyogranulomatous dermatitis, panniculitis and myositis, with intralesional acid-fast bacteria. M. ulcerans was detected by real-time PCR in all swabs, tissues and faeces collected from all four cases. Buruli ulcer may be an important and under-recognised cause of poor possum welfare in endemic areas. The physical impacts of the severe cutaneous lesions, especially those extending to underlying bones and joints, would have directly impaired the mobility of these possums, affecting navigation of their natural environments and expression of natural behaviours including foraging and socialising. Systemic distribution of M. ulcerans throughout all major internal organs, as observed here, may further impact the health and fitness of infected possums. Faecal shedding of M. ulcerans in all four cases supports the role of possums as zoonotic reservoirs. Further research is needed to investigate the epidemiology, pathogenesis and welfare impacts of Buruli ulcer in possums and to inform the design of interventions that may protect their health and welfare., (© 2024 The Author(s). Australian Veterinary Journal published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Australian Veterinary Association.)

Aim: Clinical guidelines recommend secondary prevention medications following myocardial infarction (MI) regardless of revascularisation strategy. Studies suggest that there is variation in post-MI medication use following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and coronary artery bypass grafts (CABG). We investigated initial dispensing and 12-month patterns of medication use according to revascularisation strategy following non-ST-elevation MI (NSTEMI)., Method: We included all public and private hospital admissions for NSTEMI for patients aged ≥30 years in Victoria, Australia, between July 2012 and June 2017. We investigated initial dispensing of P2Y 12 inhibitors (P2Y 12 i), statins (total and high intensity), angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors (ACEi)/angiotensin receptor blockers (ARB), and beta blockers within 60 days after discharge. Twelve-month post-MI medication use was estimated as the proportion of days covered (PDC) over a 12-month period from the date of hospital discharge. Analyses were performed using adjusted regression models, stratified by revascularisation strategy., Results: There were 15,399 admissions for NSTEMI: 11,754 with PCI and 3,645 with CABG. Following adjustments, predicted probability of initial dispensing in the PCI and CABG groups, respectively, was 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.93-0.95) vs 0.17 (0.13-0.21) for P2Y 12 i; 0.69 (0.66-0.71) vs 0.42 (0.37-0.48) for ACEi/ARB; 0.59 (0.57-0.62) vs 0.69 (0.64-0.74) for beta blockers; 0.89 (0.87-0.91) vs 0.89 (0.85-0.92) for statins; and 0.60 (0.57-0.62) vs 0.69 (0.63-0.73) for high intensity statins. The 12-month PDC in the PCI and CABG groups, respectively, was 0.82 (0.80-0.83) vs 0.12 (0.09-0.15) for P2Y 12 i; 0.62 (0.60-0.65) vs 0.43 (0.39-0.48) for ACEi/ARB; 0.53 (0.51-0.55) vs 0.632 (0.58-0.66) for beta blockers; 0.79 (0.78-0.81) vs 0.78 (0.74-0.81) for statins; and 0.49 (0.47-0.51) vs 0.55 (0.50-0.59) for high intensity statins., Conclusions: Post-discharge dispensing of secondary prevention medications differed with respect to revascularisation strategy from 2012 to 2017, despite clear evidence of benefit during this period. Interventions may be needed to address possible clinician and patient uncertainty about the benefits of secondary prevention medications, regardless of revascularisation strategy., Competing Interests: Conflicts of Interest A.C.L. reports consulting for Sanofi, Boehringer Ingelheim, and Novartis. J.I. has received grants from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), National Breast Cancer Foundation, Dementia Australia Research Foundation, AstraZeneca, and Amgen. A.J.N. reports consulting for AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Novartis, Amgen, Novo Nordisk, and Lilly. J.S.B. is supported by a NHMRC Boosting Dementia Research Leadership Fellowship and has received grant funding or consulting funds from the NHMRC, Medical Research Future Fund, Victorian Government Department of Health, Dementia Australia Research Foundation, Yulgilbar Foundation, Aged Care Quality and Safety Commission, Dementia Centre for Research Collaboration, Pharmaceutical Society of Australia, Society of Hospital Pharmacists of Australia, GlaxoSmithKline Supported Studies Programme, Amgen, and several aged care provider organisations unrelated to this work. J.I.M. has no conflicts to declare relevant to this publication. All grants and consulting funds were paid to the employing institution., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Chronic phalaris toxicity (CPT) is a neurological disease caused by animals ingesting toxins produced by early growth stages of Phalaris aquatica, a pasture plant introduced to the southeastern regions of Australia post colonization. Little is known about the clinical progression of CPT in wildlife, as incidents are sporadic and predominantly reported when animals are in the end stages of disease and in a poor welfare state. We studied a cohort of 35 eastern gray kangaroos (Macropus giganteus) affected by CPT to clarify clinical prognosis and survival rates. Kangaroos were captured in May, June, and July of 2022 at Plenty Gorge Parklands, Victoria, Australia. Each animal was radiotracked for 180 d, clinical progression and disease outcomes monitored twice a week. By the conclusion of the study, 24 animals had died (19 by euthanasia due to deterioration, five found dead). Ten animals survived, with two demonstrating a reduction in clinical signs and eight showing full resolution of clinical signs. One animal was disqualified from the study. The overall survival rate was 29.4% (95% confidence interval 17.5-49.5%). The survival duration of animals that died ranged from 5 to 133 d. There was no difference in survival rate based on sex (P=0.2), age class (P=0.49) or the month of capture (P=0.49). These results suggest that CPT is an important health and welfare concern for at-risk macropod populations, with high case-fatality rates and prolonged clinical durations. Further research to manage the disease via methods such as reducing Phalaris aquatica plant coverage and preventative treatments for animals is warranted to reduce disease incidences and improve disease outcomes in wildlife populations., (© Wildlife Disease Association 2024.)

Background: The Victorian Audit of Surgical Mortality (VASM) investigates all surgically related deaths in Victoria. The Victorian Admitted Episodes Database (VAED) is an administrative dataset maintained by the Health Department's Victorian Agency of Health Information (VAHI). We have reviewed clinical records to assess the correlation between deaths reported to the databases., Methods: Data July 2019 to June 2020 were compared. All hospitals that had surgical deaths not reported to VASM were asked to provide clinical summaries which were analysed to assess the deaths should have been reported. Case note review of 280 deaths only reported to VAHI through VAED was undertaken to establish whether these should have been reported to VASM., Results: VASM received 1763 reported surgical deaths with VAHI recording 1907. Using individual patient identifiers, 517 (29.3%) of the VASM deaths were not reported to VAHI but subsequent data analysis revealed they were correctly identified as reportable deaths in 385 (74.5%). There were 914 (47.9%) VAED recorded deaths that were not reported to VASM. 280/914 (30.6%) were reviewed from 21 hospitals. Only 24 (8.6%) of these had a surgical procedure in the patient's final admission and should have been reported. This suggests that the current method of VASM capture of surgical mortality only missed 4% cases for the 2019/20 year., Conclusion: There were major differences between surgical deaths reported to VASM and those reported by health services and recorded in VAED. Less than 5% of cases are not reported to VASM and thus not subjected to peer review., (© 2024 The Author(s). ANZ Journal of Surgery published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.)

Background: Surgical audit is key in upholding the standards of surgical care but may be inadequate in capturing morbidity experienced by patients being transferred across different health systems. The aim of this study was to assess the utility of an objective framework in the evaluation of clinical issues surrounding interhospital transfers (IHTs)., Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted at a Victorian state bariatric hospital. Patients transferred with bariatric surgery related complications between 2014 and 2021 were included. Each case was reviewed by two surgeons using an objective framework developed via a modified Delphi-process. Key issues and preventability surrounding each transfer were evaluated. Inter-observer agreement was assessed using weighted Cohen's Kappa coefficient., Results: Seventy-three patients were included. The most common indication for transfer was proximal staple line leak post sleeve gastrectomy (34/73, 46.6%). Length of stay was 38.3 ± 58.8 days. Cost of care amounted to AUD $110 666.18 per patient. Delay in transfer and complication recognition were present in 20% of cases (Cohen's Kappa 0.51;0.61). Human factors and patient related factors were the most common principal underlying causes (Cohen's Kappa 0.59). A third of the complications (n = 25/73, 34.2%), were potentially preventable (Cohen's Kappa 0.58) and more than half (39/73, 53.4%) did not have documented objective feedback to referring clinicians., Conclusion: IHTs associated with bariatric surgery complications have significant morbidity and costs. A structured framework in reviewing IHT can consistently identify potentially modifiable factors that improve clinical outcomes, and constructive feedback to the referring clinician should be actively facilitated and documented., (© 2024 The Author(s). ANZ Journal of Surgery published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.)

Background: Patients with shock treated by emergency medical services (EMS) have high morbidity and mortality. Knowledge of prehospital factors predicting outcomes in patients with shock remains limited. We aimed to describe the prehospital predictors of mortality in patients with non-traumatic shock transported to hospital by EMS., Method: This is a retrospective cohort study of consecutive ambulance attendances for non-traumatic shock in Victoria, Australia (January 2015-June 2019) linked with government-held administrative data (emergency, admissions and mortality records). Predictors of 30-day mortality were assessed using Cox proportional regressions. The primary outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality., Results: Overall, 21 334 patients with non-traumatic shock (median age 69 years, 54.8% female) were successfully linked with state administrative records. Among this cohort, 9 149 (43%) patients died within 30-days. Compared with survivors, non-survivors had a longer median on-scene time: 60 (35-98) versus 30 (19-50), p <0.001. Non-survivors were more likely to be older (median age in years: 74 (61-84) vs 65 (47-78), p<0.001), had prehospital cardiac arrest requiring cardiopulmonary resuscitation (adjusted HR (aHR)=6.26, 95% CI 5.87, 6.69) and had prehospital intubation (aHR=1.07, CI 1.00, 1.14). Reduced 30-day mortality was associated with administration of epinephrine (aHR=0.66, CI 0.62, 0.71) and systolic blood pressures above 80 mm Hg in the prehospital setting., Conclusion: The 30-day mortality from non-traumatic shock is high at 43%. Independent predictors of mortality included age, prehospital cardiac arrest and endotracheal intubation. Interventions that target reversible causes of short-term mortality in patients with non-traumatic shock are a high priority., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Introduction: Rapidly progressive necrotising soft tissue infections (NSTIs) are associated with high mortality and morbidity. Low incidence and disease heterogeneity contribute to low event rates and inadequately powered studies. The Necrotising Infections Clinical Composite Endpoint (NICCE) provides a binary outcome with which to assess interventions for NSTIs. Partly with a view towards studies of hyperbaric oxygen treatment in NSTIs we aimed to validate NICCE in a retrospective cohort of NSTI patients., Methods: Eligible patients were admitted between 2012 and 2021 to an adult major referral hospital in Victoria, Australia with surgically confirmed NSTI. The NICCE and its constituents were assessed in the whole cohort (n = 235). The cohort was divided into two groups using the modified sequential organ failure assessment (mSOFA) score, with an admission mSOFA score ≥ 3 defined as high acuity., Results: Baseline characteristics of the whole (n = 235), the high (n = 188) and the low acuity cohorts (n = 47) were similar. Survival rates were high (91.1%). Patients with an admission mSOFA ≥ 3 were less likely to meet NICCE criteria for 'success' compared to the lower acuity cohort (34.1% and 64.7% respectively). Meeting NICCE criteria was significantly associated with lower resource utilisation, measured by intensive care unit days, ventilator days, and hospital length of stay for all patients and for those with high acuity on presentation., Conclusions: The NICCE provides greater discriminative ability than mortality alone. It accurately selects patients at high risk of adverse outcomes, thereby enhancing feasibility of trials. Adaptation of NICCE to include patient-centred outcomes could strengthen its clinical relevance., Competing Interests: The authors report no conflicts of interest in this work., (Copyright: This article is the copyright of the authors who grant Diving and Hyperbaric Medicine a non-exclusive licence to publish the article in electronic and other forms.)

Safe vaccines are critical for biosecurity protection, yet adverse events-rightly or wrongly attributed to immunization-potentially cause rapid loss of confidence, reduced vaccine uptake, and resurgence of preventable disease. Effective vaccine safety incident management is essential to provide assessment and lead appropriate actions to ensure vaccination programs are safe and mitigate unwarranted crisis escalation that could damage vaccine programs and the effective control of vaccine preventable disease outbreaks or pandemics. Incident management systems (IMS) are used globally to direct emergency management response, particularly for natural disasters of fire, flood, and storm. Public health is equally an emergency response and can therefore benefit from these command control constructs. While examples of IMS for outbreak response and mass immunization logistics exist, there is little to no information on their use in vaccine safety. We describe Australia's vaccine safety Alert Advisory Group establishment in Victoria during the COVID-19 pandemic and onward embedding into routine practice, anticipant of new vaccines, and the next biosecurity threat.

Objective: To evaluate whether induction of labor (IOL) is associated with cesarean birth (CB) and perinatal mortality in uncomplicated first births at term compared with expectant management outside the confines of a randomized controlled trial., Methods: Population-based retrospective cohort study of all births in Victoria, Australia, from 2010 to 2018 (n = 640,191). Preliminary analysis compared IOL at 37 weeks with expectant management at that gestational age and beyond for uncomplicated pregnancies. Similar comparisons were made for IOL at 38, 39, 40, and 41 weeks of gestation and expectant management. The primary analysis repeated these comparisons, limiting the population to nulliparous women with uncomplicated pregnancies and excluding those with a medical indication for IOL. We compared perinatal mortality between groups using Chi-square tests and multivariable logistic regression for all other comparisons. Adjusted odds ratios and 99% confidence intervals were reported. p < 0.01 denoted statistical significance., Results: Among nulliparous, uncomplicated pregnancies at ≥37 weeks of gestation in Victoria, IOL increased from 24.6% in 2010 to 30.0% in 2018 (p < 0.001). In contrast to the preliminary analysis, the primary analysis showed that IOL in lower-risk nulliparous women was associated with increased odds of CB when performed at 38 (aOR 1.23(1.13-1.32)), 39 (aOR 1.31(1.23-1.40)), 40 (aOR 1.42(1.35-1.50)), and 41 weeks of gestation (aOR 1.43(1.35-1.51)). Perinatal mortality was rare in both groups and non-significantly lower in the induced group at most gestations., Discussion: For lower-risk nulliparous women, the odds of CB increased with IOL from 38 weeks of gestation, along with decreased odds of perinatal mortality at 41 weeks only., (© 2024 The Authors. Birth published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

The HealthGap study aimed to understand cardiovascular risk among Indigenous Australians in Victoria using linked administrative data. A key challenge was differing spatial coverages of sources: state-level data for risk factors but cardiovascular outcomes for three hospitals. Catchments were defined based on hospital postcodes to estimate denominator populations for risk modelling: first- and second-order neighbours, and spatial distribution of outcomes ('spatial event distribution'). Catchment coverage was assessed through proportions of patients presenting to study hospitals from catchment postcodes. The spatial event distribution performed best, capturing 82% events overall (first-order:40%; second-order:64%) and 65% Indigenous (27% and 45%). No approach excluded proximal non-study hospitals. Spatial event distributions could help define denominator populations when geographic information on outcome data is available but may not avoid potential misclassification., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Alphavirus infections are transmitted by mosquitoes, but the mode of transmission for Mycobacterium ulcerans, which causes Buruli ulcer, is contested. Using notification data for Victoria, Australia, during 2017-2022, adjusted for incubation period, we show close alignment between alphavirus and Buruli ulcer seasons, supporting the hypothesis of mosquito transmission of M. ulcerans.

Gambling and its impacts are an important public health issue. The relationship between gambling, problem gambling and gambling harm is complex and dynamic. Replicate prevalence studies are useful for surveillance and monitoring gambling impacts within jurisdictions. The purpose of this study was to compare changes in gambling and problem gambling in the Victorian adult population between 2008 and 2018 by investigating individual gambling activities and exploring their relationship with the Victorian gambling ecosystem. Gambling participation has decreased; problem gambling prevalence has not. Investigation beyond these summary measures reveals important details: (a) Electronic Gaming Machines (EGMs), casino table games, race and sports betting ('high-risk activities'), informal private betting, and Keno, and their associations with problem gambling endure. Further, the strength of this association is unaffected by changes in product technology, delivery, or the Victorian environment in which they reside, (b) participation in high-risk activities, excluding EGMs, increased while for other activities they decreased, (c) EGMs continue to pose the greatest risk for Victorians, (d) males and young adults continue having a higher problem gambling prevalence rate and preferring both online gambling and high-risk activities (excluding racing favoured by an ageing, older cohort, and Keno, by all ages), and (e) gambling access and exposure proliferated enabling single site multiple gambling opportunities on high-risk activities. Young adults represented a new vulnerable group as they reach the legal gambling age. The most effective interventions (based on major falls in real expenditure (losses) on EGMs, the highest risk activity) were the smoking bans, removal of ATMs from venues and decreases in bet size. There is great potential for prevention, intervention, and minimising harm in the gambling environment., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Artificial intelligence (AI) readers of mammograms compare favourably to individual radiologists in detecting breast cancer. However, AI readers cannot perform at the level of multi-reader systems used by screening programs in countries such as Australia, Sweden, and the UK. Therefore, implementation demands human-AI collaboration. Here, we use a large, high-quality retrospective mammography dataset from Victoria, Australia to conduct detailed simulations of five potential AI-integrated screening pathways, and examine human-AI interaction effects to explore automation bias. Operating an AI reader as a second reader or as a high confidence filter improves current screening outcomes by 1.9-2.5% in sensitivity and up to 0.6% in specificity, achieving 4.6-10.9% reduction in assessments and 48-80.7% reduction in human reads. Automation bias degrades performance in multi-reader settings but improves it for single-readers. This study provides insight into feasible approaches for AI-integrated screening pathways and prospective studies necessary prior to clinical adoption., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Objectives: Autoimmune disorders are multifactorial but occupational exposures have long been implicated, including respirable crystalline silica (RCS). A modern epidemic of silicosis is emerging internationally, associated with dry processing of engineered stone with high (>90%) RCS content. We aimed to investigate the prevalence of clinical autoimmune disease and common autoantibodies in exposed workers., Methods: Stone benchtop industry workers in Victoria, Australia were offered free screening for silicosis and related disorders. Symptoms or diagnoses of autoimmune disease were evaluated by questionnaire and blood tests taken for rheumatoid factor (RF), antinuclear antibodies (ANAs) and extractable nuclear antigens (ENAs)., Results: Among 1238 workers (93.3% male) screened from 2019 to 2021, 0.9% were confirmed with autoimmune disease. Among those without clinical disease, 24.6% had detectable ANAs (93.5% male), 4.6% detectable ENAs and 2.6% were positive for RF. Silicosis was diagnosed in 253 workers (24.3% of those with diagnostic information available). Of those with ANA readings, 54 (6.6%) had ANA titre >1:320. The likelihood of positive autoantibodies increased with age; smoking; higher exposure to RCS and silicosis diagnosis., Conclusion: The proportion of workers with detectable ANAs or ENAs was considerably higher than the 5%-9% expected in the general population. Some of the antibodies detected (eg, Scl-70, CENPB) have high sensitivity and specificity for systemic sclerosis. Long-term follow-up will be needed to estimate incidence. Rheumatologists should explore occupational history in new cases of autoimmune disease. Screening for autoimmune disease is indicated in workers exposed to RCS as these individuals need specialised management and may be entitled to compensation., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objectives: To compare serological evidence of prior severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection with linked coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case notification data in Victoria, Australia, and to determine in vitro SARS-CoV-2 neutralisation activity based on prior infection and vaccination history., Design, Setting, Participants: Four cross-sectional serological surveys were conducted between 30 June and 31 October 2022 (a period of Omicron BA.4/BA.5 dominance) using 1,974 residual serum samples obtained from the Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory. Serological results were linked to COVID-19 case notification and vaccination data. Surrogate virus neutralisation testing was performed to obtain in vitro inhibition estimates by anti-nucleocapsid serostatus and COVID-19 vaccination history., Main Outcome Measures: Adjusted anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike and nucleocapsid seropositivity by sex, age and region of residence; adjusted proportion of cases notified by anti-nucleocapsid serostatus, age and number of COVID-19 vaccination doses received; adjusted percentage in vitro inhibition against wildtype and Omicron BA.4/BA.5 SARS-CoV-2 variants by anti-nucleocapsid serostatus and COVID-19 vaccination history., Results: The prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibodies was inversely proportional to age. In October 2022, prevalence was 84% (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 75-93%) among 18-29-year-olds, compared to 39% (95% CI: 27-52%) among ≥ 80-year-olds. In most age groups, approximately 40% of COVID-19 cases appear to have been notified via existing surveillance mechanisms. Case notification was highest among individuals older than 80 years and people who had received COVID-19 vaccine booster doses. In vitro neutralisation of Omicron BA.4/BA.5 sub-variants was highest for individuals with evidence of both prior infection and booster vaccination., Conclusions: Under-notification of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the Victorian population is not uniform across age and vaccination strata. Seroprevalence data that give insights into case notification behaviour provide additional context for the interpretation of existing COVID-19 surveillance information., (© Commonwealth of Australia CC BY-NC-ND.)

The future of the COVID pandemic and its public health and societal impact will be determined by the profile and spread of emerging variants and the timely identification and response to them. Wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 has been widely adopted in many countries across the globe and has played an important role in tracking infection levels and providing useful epidemiological information that cannot be adequately captured by clinical testing alone. However, novel variants can emerge rapidly, spread globally, and markedly alter the trajectory of the pandemic, as exemplified by the Delta and Omicron variants. Most mutations linked to the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants are found within variable regions of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein. We have developed a duplex hemi-nested PCR method that, coupled with short amplicon sequencing, allows simultaneous typing of two of the most highly variable and informative regions of the Spike gene: the N-terminal domain and the receptor binding motif. Using this method in an operationalized public health program, we identified the first known incursion of Omicron BA.1 into Victoria, Australia and demonstrated how sensitive amplicon sequencing methods can be combined with wastewater surveillance as a relatively low-cost solution for early warning of variant incursion and spread.IMPORTANCEThis study offers a rapid, cost-effective, and sensitive approach for monitoring SARS-CoV-2 variants in wastewater. The method's flexibility permits timely modifications, enabling the integration of emerging variants and adaptations to evolving SARS-CoV-2 genetics. Of particular significance for low- and middle-income regions with limited surveillance capabilities, this technique can potentially be utilized to study a range of pathogens or viruses that possess diverse genetic sequences, similar to influenza., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Despite providing intensive care to more infants born <24 weeks' gestation, data on school-age outcomes, critical for counselling and decision-making, are sparse., Objective: To compare major neurosensory, cognitive and academic impairment among school-aged children born extremely preterm at 22-23 weeks' gestation (EP22-23) with those born 24-25 weeks (EP24-25), 26-27 weeks (EP26-27) and term (≥37 weeks)., Design: Three prospective longitudinal cohorts., Setting: Victoria, Australia., Participants: All EP live births (22-27 weeks) and term-born controls born in 1991-1992, 1997 and 2005., Main Outcome Measures: At 8 years, major neurosensory disability (any of moderate/severe cerebral palsy, IQ <-2 SD relative to controls, blindness or deafness), motor, cognitive and academic impairment, executive dysfunction and poor health utility. Risk ratios (RRs) and risk differences between EP22-23 (reference) and other gestational age groups were estimated using generalised linear models, adjusted for era of birth, social risk and multiple birth., Results: The risk of major neurosensory disability was higher for EP22-23 (n=21) than more mature groups (168 EP24-25; 312 EP26-27; 576 term), with increasing magnitude of difference as the gestation increased (adjusted RR (95% CI) compared with EP24-25: 1.39 (0.70 to 2.76), p=0.35; EP26-27: 1.85 (0.95 to 3.61), p=0.07; term: 13.9 (5.75 to 33.7), p<0.001). Similar trends were seen with other outcomes. Two-thirds of EP22-23 survivors were free of major neurosensory disability., Conclusions: Although children born EP22-23 experienced higher rates of disability and impairment at 8 years than children born more maturely, many were free of major neurosensory disability. These data support providing active care to infants born EP22-23., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: To assess the prevalence of obesity in pregnant women in Victoria, 2010-2019., Study Design: Retrospective cohort study; analysis of Victorian Perinatal Data Collection data., Setting, Participants: Women who gave birth in seventeen Victorian Department of Health areas (eight metropolitan, nine regional), 2010-2019., Main Outcome Measures: Proportions of births to women with obesity (body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m 2 ), by Department of Health area and year., Results: A total of 710 364 births with records that included the mothers' BMI were recorded in Victoria during 2010-2019. The proportion of births to women with obesity rose from 19.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 19.3-19.9%) in 2010 to 21.5% (95% CI, 21.2-21.8%) in 2019; the proportion of births to women with normal weight declined from 49.0% (95% CI, 48.6-49.4%) to 46.8% (95% CI, 46.4-47.1%). In metropolitan areas, the proportion of births to women with obesity rose from 17.7% (95% CI, 17.7-17.8%) to 19.4% (95% CI, 19.3-19.4%); in regional areas, it increased from 25.0% (95% CI, 25.0-25.1%) to 29.1% (95% CI, 29.0-29.2%). The increase in prevalence of obesity was greater among women living in the lowest socio-economic standing (Index of Relative Socio-Economic Disadvantage) quintile than for those residing in the quintile of least disadvantage (adjusted rate ratio, 2.16; 95% CI, 2.12-2.20)., Conclusion: The proportion of births to Victorian women with obesity rose during 2010-2019, particularly in regional areas. Ensuring that regional health services are adequately resourced to meet the needs of the increasing number of women at risk of obesity during pregnancy is vital., (© 2024 The Author(s). Medical Journal of Australia published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of AMPCo Pty Ltd.)

Background The patterns of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in populations may be influenced by the sexual mixing within the population. We aimed to investigate the assortative sexual mixing pattern by bisexuality in male-male partnerships. Methods This was a retrospective repeated cross-sectional study of men with mostly regular male partners attending the Melbourne Sexual Health Centre between 2011 and 2019. Data on sexual practices, including their sexual practices, presence of other male/female sex partners and the gender of sexual partners in the previous 3 and 12months, were collected using computer-assisted self-interview. We calculated the proportion of male partnerships where at least one man in the partnership reported a female sex partner. Results A total of 2056 male-male partnerships (i.e. 4112 individuals) with a median age of 29 years (IQR 25 to 35) were included. Overall, in 94.4% (1941/2056) of male-male partnerships both men had male partners only; however, in 5.5% (113/2056) of partnerships, one man had both male and female partners, and in 0.1% (2/2056) partnerships, both men had both male and female partners. No assortative relationship was found on the sexual mixing by bisexuality in male-male partnerships due to the low assortativity coefficient (r =0.006, 95% CI: -0.004 to 0.016). Conclusion One in 20 male-male partnerships had at least one man who had both male and female partners within the preceding year. Individuals were not selective by bisexuality, suggesting that partnerships of bisexual individuals are mixed proportionately to the distribution of their characteristics. Still, these sexual mixing practices may affect STI transmission dynamics.

Background: Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in Australia. Immunotherapy has improved outcomes in patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Pembrolizumab is approved in first-line treatment as single-agent immunotherapy (SAI) or combination chemoimmunotherapy (CIT). In metastatic NSCLC programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) ≥50% either regimen may be used., Aims: We aim to identify patient and tumour characteristics that influence treatment selection., Methods: This is a retrospective observational study. Pharmacy records identified patients with metastatic/recurrent NSCLC receiving pembrolizumab at two metropolitan centres in Victoria, Australia, since 2018. Demographics, tumour characteristics, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and treatment data were collected. Descriptive and multivariate analyses were performed., Results: Sixty-one patients had metastatic NSCLC PD-L1 ≥50% and received pembrolizumab with median age of 65.6 years, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group 0-1 in 82%. CIT was administered to 23% (14) with no difference in rate of delivery between centres (P = 0.808). CCI mean score differed (3.38 SAI vs 2.36 CIT, P = 0.042). Patients with high CCI score (≥2) were less likely to receive CIT (OR = 0.15, P = 0.003, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.04-0.57). Primary tumours over 5 cm were more likely to receive CIT (OR = 3.74, P = 0.043, 95% CI = 1.04-13.42). Site-specific metastases of liver, brain and pericardial effusion were not associated with CIT., Conclusions: Patients with higher comorbidity score were less likely to receive CIT, suggesting chemotherapy avoidance in comorbid patients. Larger tumours are associated with CIT use, indicating that oncologists may use tumour size as a surrogate of disease burden. Limitations include small sample size and data cut-off. Future prospective studies could incorporate comorbid status and a validated disease burden score to stratify patients., (© 2024 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.)

Background: Ultrasound surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may improve early tumour detection but may additionally result in surveillance-related harm through increased evaluation of non-HCC lesions. The incidence of these outcomes has not been reported outside North America., Aims: We aimed to report the outcomes of HCC surveillance with respect to both surveillance-related benefits and harms., Methods: We reviewed all HCC surveillance ultrasounds at a large Victorian tertiary hospital network in 2017 and followed their outcomes until 2021. Surveillance-related benefits were defined as early-stage HCC detection. Surveillance-related harm was defined as contrast imaging, biopsies or surgery performed to evaluate non-HCC liver lesions or false-positive alpha-fetoprotein levels., Results: Five hundred and fifty-three patients were included (mean age 54.5 ± 12.3 years, males 67.5%, cirrhosis 50.3%). The most common liver disease aetiology was hepatitis B (53.9%). Over a median of 4.7 years follow-up, early-stage HCC was detected in 3.3% (5.4% in cirrhotic vs 1.1% in non-cirrhotic patients, P < 0.01). 75% of all HCCs were early-stage. Surveillance-related harm occurred in 12.5% (15.5% in cirrhotic vs 9.5% in non-cirrhotic patients, P < 0.04), although most harm was mild (12.1%). In subgroup analysis, the detection of early-stage HCC ranged between 0% (screened outside of guideline criteria and alcoholic cirrhotic patients) and 7.2% (hepatitis C cirrhosis). Harm occurred between 9% (non-cirrhotic hepatitis B) and 20.8% (thrombocytopenia)., Conclusion: In our study, HCC surveillance was associated with early tumour detection, although many patients experienced mild surveillance-related harm. Novel surveillance strategies and pathways are required to improve detection in high-risk patients and minimise harm in low-risk patients., (© 2024 The Authors. Internal Medicine Journal published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Royal Australasian College of Physicians.)

Objective: To establish the predictors of 28-day unplanned hospital readmissions (28D-UHR) in older adults (aged >65 years) with delirium during index hospital admission., Design: Retrospective longitudinal cohort study., Setting and Participants: 1634 patients (aged >65 years) admitted to a Melbourne quaternary hospital with delirium during index admission., Methods: Delirium during hospital admission was defined by the inclusion of one of the following International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, codes F05.0, F05.1, F05.8, or F05.9 in the hospital medical discharge summary. Descriptive statistics were obtained for baseline characteristics. Multivariate logistic regression model was developed to assess predictors of 28D-UHR., Results: A total of 1634 patients with delirium during their inpatient admission were included, with 9.8% (160 patients) incidence of 28D-UHR. For patients who were readmitted, a shorter length of stay [odds ratio (OR) 0.98, 95% CI 0.96-0.99], higher number of medications on discharge from index admission (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.06-1.14), and residing in a nursing home preadmission (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.04-1.75) were associated with 28D-UHR., Conclusions and Implications: This study found that nursing home residence pre index admission, shorter length of stay (LOS), and polypharmacy were predictors of 28D-UHR. Further research into strategies to minimize 28D-UHR is required. Exploration of predischarge pharmacy-driven deprescribing programs and hospital-based postdischarge support for nursing home staff are important areas for future intervention., Competing Interests: Disclosures The authors declare no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2024 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objective: Preventable transmission of blood-borne viruses (BBV), including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis C virus (HCV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV), continue in at-risk populations, including people who use alcohol and drugs (AODs). To our knowledge, no studies have explored the use of ambulance data for surveillance of AOD harms in patients with BBV infections., Methods: We used electronic patient care records from the National Ambulance Surveillance System for people who were attended by an ambulance in Victoria, Australia between July 2015 and July 2016 for AOD-related harms, and with identified history of a BBV infection. Descriptive and geospatial analyses explored the epidemiological and psychosocial characteristics of patients for these attendances., Results: The present study included 1832 patients with a history of a BBV infection who required an ambulance for AOD-related harms. Amphetamines were reported in 24.7% of attendances where the patient identified HIV history, and heroin was reported more often for patients with viral hepatitis history (HCV: 19.2%; HBV: 12.7%). Higher proportions of attendances with a viral hepatitis history were observed in patients from the most socially disadvantaged areas. Geospatial analyses revealed higher concentrations of AOD attendances with a BBV history occurring in metropolitan Melbourne., Conclusions: Our study describes the utility of ambulance data to identify a sub-population of patients with a BBV history and complex medical and social characteristics. Repeat attendances of BBV history patients to paramedics could present an opportunity for ongoing surveillance using ambulance data and possible paramedic intervention, with potential linkage to appropriate BBV services., (© 2024 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine.)

Objectives: Estimates of secondary infections are variedly reported, with few studies done in Australia. We investigated the occurrence and impact of secondary infections complicating COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 admissions in Victoria, Australia, 2020-2023., Methods: We used linked population-wide data sets and specific International Classification of Disease, 10th Revision codes to identify and estimate the occurrence of secondary infections. Using hospital/intensive care unit length of stay in negative binomial regression and mortality, we examined the impact of secondary infections., Results: Secondary infections were identified in 6.9% (13,467 of 194,660) of COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 admissions: 6.0% (11,651 of 194,660) bacterial, 0.9% (1691 of 194,660) viral, and 0.2% (385 of 194,660) fungal. Prevalence was highest during the pre-Delta (10.4%) and Omicron-BA2 (8.1%) periods. Sepsis and pneumonia were the most reported syndromes; the occurrence of sepsis declined gradually over time. The odds of secondary infections were higher among the ≥70-year-olds (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 3.76, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.43-4.14, vs 20-29-year-olds), individuals with chronic conditions (aOR 3.15, 95% CI 2.88-3.45, vs those without), the unvaccinated (aOR 1.59, 95% CI 1.45-1.75), and the lowest socioeconomic group (aOR 1.12, 95% CI 1.05-1.19). Patients with secondary infections had 2.43 times longer hospital length of stay and 9.60 times longer intensive care unit length of stay than those without secondary infections. The mortality risk was 2.17 times higher in those with secondary infections., Conclusions: Secondary infections occurred in 69 per 1000 COVID-19-associated hospital admissions in Victoria, mostly in high-risk groups, and were associated with severe outcomes., Competing Interests: Declarations of competing interest The authors have no competing interests to declare., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Objective: This article presents a longitudinal analysis of COVID-19 infection and vaccination coverage in Melbourne metropolitan local government areas (LGAs) during the 2021 Delta wave., Methods: COVID-19 vaccination and infection data from 12 July to 27 November 2021 were sourced from government websites. Summary statistics and associated 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were compared by LGA ranked according to socioeconomic status: total "burden" (total infections per thousand), "peak" (highest weekly infection rate), "lag" (interval between peak and 70% double vaccination)., Results: LGAs in the bottom five deciles for social advantage experienced higher infection rates (39.0 per thousand [95% CI: 38.5, 39.5] vs. 14.8 [14.7, 14.9]), and had lower two-dose vaccination coverage (23.8% [23.6, 23.9] vs. 32.7% [32.6, 32.7]) compared with LGAs in the top five deciles. LGAs that achieved 70% coverage two weeks or more after the infection peak experienced nearly twice the total infection burden (27.7 per 1000 [27.3, 28.0] compared with 14.9 [14.7, 15.0]) than LGAs with a shorter lag., Conclusions: Exposure and transmission risk factors cluster within disadvantaged LGAs. The potential for large local outbreaks is heightened if vaccination uptake trails in these communities., Implications for Public Health: In a pandemic, decision-makers must prioritise disease control and harm reduction interventions for at-risk LGAs., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Adolescent violence in the home is a growing public health issue and remains under reported and under-researched. The focus of the present research is to investigate factors that may contribute to adolescent violence in the home, among acohort of young people with co-occurring early psychosis. Data relates to 50 young people (16 females, 33 males, 1 nonbinary) aged from 16-25 who were clients at a youth early psychosis service in Melbourne, Australia. Results from a discriminant function analysis revealed the two major contributing factors to whether someone used violence in the home, were whether a young person had a coexisting neurodevelopmental or intellectual disability and whether they used violence outside the home. The findings provide preliminary evidence that engaging in violence outside the home and the presence of a neurodevelopmental or intellectual disability may make it more likely for young people with early psychosis to use violence in the home., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.)

Extreme heat alerts are the most common form of weather forecasting services used in Australia, yet very limited studies have documented their effectiveness in improving health outcomes. This study aimed to examine the temporal changes in temperature-related mortality in relation to the activation of the heat-health alert and response system (HARS) in the State of Victoria, Australia. We examined the relationship between temperatures and mortality using quasi-Poisson regression and the distributed lag non-linear model (dlnm) and compared the temperature-mortality association between the two periods: period 1- prior-HARS (1992-2009) and period 2- post-HARS (2010-2019). Since the HARS heavily weights heatwave effects, we also compared the main effects of heatwave events between the two periods. The heatwaves were defined for three levels, including 3 consecutive days at 97th, 98th, and 99th percentiles. We also controlled the potential confounding effect of seasonality by including a natural cubic B-spline of the day of the year with equally spaced knots and 8 degrees of freedom per year. The exposure-response curve reveals the temperature mortality was reduced in period 2 in comparison with period 1. The relative risk ratios (RRR) of Period 2 over Period 1 were all less than one and gradually decreased from 0.86 (95% CI, 0.72-1.03) to 0.64 (95% CI, 0.33-1.22), and the differences in attributable risk percent increased from 13.2 to 25.3%. The reduction in the risk of heatwave-related deaths decreased by 3.4% (RR p1 1.068, 95% CI, 1.024-1.112 versus RR p2 1.034, 95% CI, 0.986-1.082) and 10% (RR p1 1.16, 95% CI, 1.10-1.22 versus RR p2 1.06, 95% CI, 1.002-1.119) for all groups of people. The study indicated a decrease in heat-related mortality following the operation of HARS in Victoria under extreme heat and high-intensity heatwaves conditions. Further studies could investigate the extent of changes in mortality among populations of differing socio-economic groups during the operation of the heat-health alert system., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) admissions and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) volume declined during periods of COVID-19 lockdown internationally in 2020. The effect of lockdown on emergency medical service (EMS) utilisation, and PCI volume during the initial phase of the pandemic in Australia has not been well described., Method: We analysed data from the Victorian Cardiac Outcomes Registry (VCOR), a state-wide PCI registry, linked with the Ambulance Victoria EMS registry. PCI volume, 30-day major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE; composite of mortality, myocardial infarction, stent thrombosis, unplanned revascularisation, and stroke), and EMS utilisation were compared over four time periods: lockdown (26 Mar 2020-12 May 2020); pre-lockdown (26 Feb 2020-25 Mar 2020); post-lockdown (13 May 2020-10 Jul 2020); and the year prior (26 Mar 2019-12 May 2019). Interrupted time series analysis was performed to assess PCI trends within and between consecutive periods., Results: The EMS utilisation for ACS during lockdown was higher compared with other periods: lockdown 39.4% vs pre-lockdown 29.7%; vs post-lockdown 33.6%; vs year prior 27.1%; all p<0.01. Median daily PCI cases were similar: 31 (IQR 10, 38) during lockdown; 39 (15, 49) pre-lockdown; 39.5 (11, 44) post-lockdown; and, 42 (10, 49) the year prior; all p>0.05. Median door-to-procedure time for ACS indication during lockdown was shorter at 3 hours (1.2, 20.6) vs pre-lockdown 3.9 (1.7, 21); vs post-lockdown 3.5 (1.5, 21.26); and, the year prior 3.5 (1.5, 23.7); all p<0.05. Lockdown period was associated with lower odds for 30-day MACCE compared to pre-lockdown (odds ratio [OR] 0.55 [0.33-0.93]; p=0.026); post-lockdown (OR 0.66; [0.40-1.06]; p=0.087); and the year prior (OR 0.55 [0.33-0.93]; p=0.026)., Conclusions: Contrary to international trends, EMS utilisation for ACS increased during lockdown but PCI volumes remained similar throughout the initial stages of the pandemic in Victoria, with no observed adverse effect on 30-day MACCE during lockdown. These data suggest that the public health response in Victoria was not associated with poorer quality cardiovascular care in patients receiving PCI., Competing Interests: Conflicts of Interest The authors have no conflicts of interest to report., (Copyright © 2024 Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand (CSANZ). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: In 2014, the Hazelwood coalmine fire in regional Victoria, Australia shrouded nearby communities in smoke for six weeks. Prior investigations identified substantial adverse effects, including increases in the use of health services. In this study, we examined the effects on hospital and ambulance use in the eight years following the fire., Methods: Using Victorian hospital (Jan 2009-Jun 2022) and ambulance (Jan 2013-Dec 2021) data, we conducted an interrupted time series of changes to the rate of hospital admissions, emergency presentations, and ambulance attendances. A categorical exposure model compared two locations, most-exposed Morwell and less-exposed Latrobe Valley, to the rest of regional Victoria. A continuous exposure model used spatial estimates of fire-related PM 2.5 . Analyses were stratified by sex, age group (<65/65+ years), and condition (cardiovascular, respiratory, mental health, injury)., Results: There were small but significant increases in overall hospital admissions and emergency presentations across all analyses, but little evidence of change in overall ambulance attendances. Effects varied considerably by condition, with the biggest relative increases observed among hospital admissions for mental health conditions and injuries. While cardiovascular-related hospital admissions and emergency presentations increased post-fire, ambulance attendances decreased., Conclusions: Our findings suggest the Hazelwood coalmine fire likely increased hospital usage. However, it is unclear whether this was due to the direct effects of smoke exposure on health, or the disruptive socioeconomic and behavioural impacts of an environmental disaster that affected how communities engaged with various health services., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests:Michael J Abramson reports financial support was provided by Pfizer Inc. Michael J Abramson reports financial support was provided by Boehringer Ingelheim Corp USA. Michael J Abramson reports financial support was provided by Sanofi. Michael J Abramson reports financial support was provided by GlaxoSmithKline Inc. Rongbin Xu reports financial support was provided by VicHealth. If there are other authors, they declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The field of spatial analysis in traffic crash studies can often enhance predictive performance by addressing the inherent spatial dependence and heterogeneity in crash data. This research introduces the Geographical Support Vector Regression (GSVR) framework, which incorporates generated distance matrices, to assess spatial variations and evaluate the influence of a wide range of factors, including traffic, infrastructure, socio-demographic, travel demand, and land use, on the incidence of total and fatal-or-serious injury (FSI) crashes across Greater Melbourne's zones. Utilizing data from the Melbourne Activity-Based Model (MABM), the study examines 50 indicators related to peak hour traffic and various commuting modes, offering a detailed analysis of the multifaceted factors affecting road safety. The study shows that active transportation modes such as walking and cycling emerge as significant indicators, reflecting a disparity in safety that heightens the vulnerability of these road users. In contrast, car commuting, while a consistent factor in crash risks, has a comparatively lower impact, pointing to an inherent imbalance in the road environment. This could be interpreted as an unequal distribution of risk and safety measures among different types of road users, where the infrastructure and policies may not adequately address the needs and vulnerabilities of pedestrians and cyclists compared to those of car drivers. Public transportation generally offers safer travel, yet associated risks near train stations and tram stops in city center areas cannot be overlooked. Tram stops profoundly affect total crashes in these areas, while intersection counts more significantly impact FSI crashes in the broader metropolitan area. The study also uncovers the contrasting roles of land use mix in influencing FSI versus total crashes. The proposed framework presents an approach for dynamically extracting distance matrices of varying sizes tailored to the specific dataset, providing a fresh method to incorporate spatial impacts into the development of machine learning models. Additionally, the framework extends a feature selection technique to enhance machine learning models that typically lack comprehensive feature selection capabilities., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Objectives: To explore whether synergistic epidemics of measles and scarlet fever in 1860s-1870s Victoria, Australia could be characterized as syndemics, we apply the methods of Sawchuk, Tripp, and Samakaroon (Social Science & Medicine 2022, 295, 112956) to quantify the impact of each of the two major co-occurring epidemic events (1867, 1875) in terms of life expectancy (LE) changes. Sawchuk et al. posit the presence of a harvesting effect, indicated by a statistically significant increase in LE in the immediate post-epidemic "fallow period", as a criterion for identification of a historical syndemic. We test an alternate hypothesis that the same methods can identify a short-term scarring effect., Materials and Methods: Using annual age- and cause-specific death statistics and census population data, we constructed abridged period life tables for baseline period, potential syndemic year, and "fallow" year for each of the two periods (1860s and 1870s). We compared LE at birth using Z-tests. We decomposed age-cause-specific mortality according to Arriaga's method to identify age-and cause-specific contributions to LE change., Results: LE was significantly lower than baseline (1864-1865) in 1867 but not in the "fallow" year (1869). LE in 1875 and the 1878 "fallow" year were both significantly below baseline (1871-1873). Age-cause-specific decomposition showed similar patterns for 1867 and 1875 for measles and scarlet fever combined effects., Discussion: Evidence of a scarring effect following the 1875 measles/scarlet fever combined peak supports the interpretation of this event as a syndemic. We suggest the short-term scarring effect can be a useful additional criterion for identifying historical syndemics., (© 2024 The Author(s). American Journal of Biological Anthropology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

Background and Aims: DXA-measured visceral adipose tissue (VAT DXA ) is associated with adverse cardiometabolic risk profiles in cross-sectional studies, but longitudinal associations have not been investigated. We examined the longitudinal associations of baseline and change in VAT DXA with future cardiometabolic risk in Australian participants of the Busselton Healthy Ageing study., Methods and Results: We studied 3569 participants (54.7% female, aged 46-70 years) with data on VAT DXA (GE Lunar Prodigy) and cardiometabolic risk factors at baseline and 6 years follow-up. The associations were examined using logistic and linear regression models, adjusting for baseline age and lifestyle factors. Mean baseline VAT DXA mass was 1653 ± 880 g and 855 ± 580 g, and mean change in VAT DXA +99 ± 500 g and +58 ± 312 g in males and females, respectively. Among all participants, 182 males (11.3%) and 197 females (10.1%) developed incident metabolic syndrome (MetS). Baseline VAT DXA was associated with incident MetS with an adjusted odds ratio of 2.53 (95% CI: 2.03, 3.15) in males and 2.78 (2.30, 3.36) in females per SD increment. There was a graded positive association between longitudinal change in VAT DXA and MetS severity z score in both sexes adjusted for baseline VAT (P < 0.001). All the above associations remained significant after further adjustment for baseline or change in BMI, waist circumference or waist-to-hip ratio in respective models (all P < 0.001)., Conclusions: Higher baseline and greater longitudinal increase in VAT DXA are independently associated with raised cardiometabolic risk over time, and may serve as useful markers for identifying middle-aged individuals at increased cardiometabolic risk., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: Alcohol is commonly detected in patients presenting to hospital after major trauma and is a key preventable risk factor for injury. While it has been suggested that alcohol intoxication at the time of injury results in worse acute patient outcomes, there is currently limited knowledge on the impact of alcohol on health outcomes following hospital discharge. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between acute pre-injury alcohol exposure and the self-reported health outcomes of survivors of major trauma 12-months post-injury., Methods: Data from the Victorian State Trauma Registry (January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2020) were used to identify major trauma patients who: (1) were aged ≥18 years; (2) survived to 12-months post-injury; and (3) had blood alcohol data available in the registry. Logistic regression analyses were used to examine differences in self-reported health status (EQ-5D) and return to work at 12-months post-injury by blood alcohol concentration (BAC) at the time of presentation to hospital. Analyses were adjusted for potential confounders including a range of demographic, hospital and injury characteristics., Results: A total of 2957 patients met inclusion criteria, of which 857 (29.0 %) had a BAC >0 and 690 (23.3 %) had a BAC ≥0.05 g/100 mL. After adjusting for potential confounders, having any alcohol detected (i.e., BAC >0) was associated with lower odds of reporting problems on the EQ-5D mobility (aOR = 0.72, 95 %CI = 0.53 to 0.99) and usual activities dimensions (aOR = 0.79, 95 %CI = 0.63 to 0.99). Having a BAC ≥0.05 g/100 mL was only associated with lower adjusted odds of reporting problems on the usual activities dimension (aOR = 0.69, 95 %CI = 0.55 to 0.88) of the EQ-5D. Alcohol detection was not associated with the self-care, pain/discomfort or anxiety/depression dimensions of the EQ-5D, or with return to work in adjusted analyses., Conclusion: Acute pre-injury alcohol exposure was not associated with increased reporting of problems on the EQ-5D or with return to work at 12-months post-injury. Further research is needed to understand why patients with alcohol detections were sometimes associated with paradoxically better 12-month post-injury outcomes relative to patients without alcohol detections., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The VSTR is a Department of Health and Human Services, State Government of Victoria and Transport Accident Commission funded project. GL was supported by a Monash University Postgraduate Publications Award. BJG was supported by National Health and Medical Research Council Investigator Grant (L2, ID 2009998). PMD was supported by a National Health and Medical Research Council Senior Research Fellowship (1136090). BB was supported by an Australian Research Council Discovery Future Fellowship (FT210100183)., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a growing burden on healthcare resources, despite improvements in prevention and management. AF is a common cause of hospitalisation, and Emergency Medical Services (EMS) use. However, there is a paucity of data describing the burden of AF on EMS. We aimed to determine the prevalence, characteristics, and outcomes of patients presenting with AF to EMS using a large population-based sample., Methods: Consecutive attendances for AF in Victoria, Australia (January 2015-June 2019) were included if patients had a diagnosis of "AF" or "arrhythmia" with AF on electrocardiogram. Data were individually linked to emergency, hospital, and mortality records., Results: Of 2,613,056 EMS attendances, 16,525 were a first attendance for AF and linked to hospital records. Median (IQR) age was 76 (67,84) years (43% female). Seventy-eight percent had high thromboembolic risk (CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score ≥ 2), and 72% had a heart rate ≥ 100 bpm. Forty-two percent of patients received no treatment by paramedics and 99.4% were transported to hospital. Fifty-three percent were discharged from ED. Median length of hospital stay was 2 days. Of 2542 cases reattended for AF, 19% occurred within 30 days, with increased odds for females and those of low socioeconomic status. Overall, 24% died during the study period, 12% within 30 days. Increasing age, heart failure, stroke, COPD, and low socioeconomic status increased the odds of 30-day mortality., Conclusions: EMS utilisation for AF is common and associated with frequent reattendance. Further studies are required to investigate novel pathways of care to reduce AF burden on healthcare systems., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors have no conflicts., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)