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Background: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease that results in death within a short time span (3-5 years). One of the major challenges in treating ALS is its highly heterogeneous disease progression and the lack of effective prognostic tools to forecast it. The main aim of this study was, then, to test the feasibility of predicting relevant clinical outcomes that characterize the progression of ALS with a two-year prediction horizon via artificial intelligence techniques using routine visits data., Methods: Three classification problems were considered: predicting death (binary problem), predicting death or percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) (multiclass problem), and predicting death or non-invasive ventilation (NIV) (multiclass problem). Two supervised learning models, a logistic regression (LR) and a deep learning multilayer perceptron (MLP), were trained ensuring technical robustness and reproducibility. Moreover, to provide insights into model explainability and result interpretability, model coefficients for LR and Shapley values for both LR and MLP were considered to characterize the relationship between each variable and the outcome., Results: On the one hand, predicting death was successful as both models yielded F1 scores and accuracy well above 0.7. The model explainability analysis performed for this outcome allowed for the understanding of how different methodological approaches consider the input variables when performing the prediction. On the other hand, predicting death alongside PEG or NIV proved to be much more challenging (F1 scores and accuracy in the 0.4-0.6 interval)., Conclusions: In conclusion, predicting death due to ALS proved to be feasible. However, predicting PEG or NIV in a multiclass fashion proved to be unfeasible with these data, regardless of the complexity of the methodological approach. The observed results suggest a potential ceiling on the amount of information extractable from the database, e.g., due to the intrinsic difficulty of the prediction tasks at hand, or to the absence of crucial predictors that are, however, not currently collected during routine practice., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

DYNAMITE, an acronym for DYNamic Archetypal analysis for MIning disease TrajEctories, is a new methodology developed specifically to model disease progression by exploiting information available in longitudinal clinical datasets. First, archetypal analysis is applied to data organised in matrix form, with the aim of finding extreme and representative disease states (archetypes) linked to the original data through convex coefficients. Then, each original observation is associated with a single archetype based on their similarity; finally, an event log is created encoding the progression of disease states for each patient in terms of archetype states. In the last stage of the procedure, archetypal analysis is coupled with process mining, which allows the event log archetypes to be visualised graphically as sequences of disease states, allowing the clinical trajectories of patients to be extracted and examined. As a proof of concept, we applied the proposed method to data from a cohort of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients whose progression was monitored using the 12-item ALSFRS-R questionnaire. Without any a priori knowledge, DYNAMITE identified six archetypes clearly describing different types and severity of impairment and provided reliable clinical trajectories consistent with the prognosis of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients. DYNAMITE offers high interpretability at every stage of the analysis, which makes it particularly suitable for use in healthcare where explainability is paramount, and enables analysis of clinical trajectories at both individual and population levels.

In recent years, the integration of game-like elements into non-gaming contexts has shown promise in enhancing user engagement and motivation. This study assesses the impact of gamification elements on data collection efficacy in m-health applications. An ad-hoc mobile application was developed and used in a randomized two-arm pilot study. Participants interacted either with the gamified meal-logging application or with its non-gamified version for ten days. The results from this study emphasize the benefits of incorporating gamification techniques into health applications embedded in digital platforms. While both versions were well-received, reaching high System Usability Scale (SUS) scores (91 and 93.5) and generally positive feedback, the gamified app demonstrated a distinct advantage in promoting user engagement and consistent data logging. This highlights the importance of gamification in health research, suggesting its potential to ensure thorough and consistent data collection, which is essential for producing reliable research outcomes.

Comorbidity is widespread in the ageing population, implying multiple and complex medical needs for individuals and a public health burden. Determining risk factors and predicting comorbidity development can help identify at-risk subjects and design prevention strategies. Using socio-demographic and clinical data from approximately 11,000 subjects monitored over 11 years in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, we develop a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) to model the onset and interaction of three cardio-metabolic comorbidities, namely type 2 diabetes (T2D), hypertension, and heart problems. The DBN allows us to identify risk factors for developing each morbidity, simulate ageing progression over time, and stratify the population based on the risk of outcome occurrence. By applying hierarchical agglomerative clustering to the simulated, dynamic risk of experiencing morbidities, we identified patients with similar risk patterns and the variables contributing to their discrimination. The network reveals a direct joint effect of biomarkers and lifestyle on outcomes over time, such as the impact of fasting glucose, HbA1c, and BMI on T2D development. Mediated cross-relationships between comorbidities also emerge, showcasing the interconnected nature of these health issues. The model presents good calibration and discrimination ability, particularly in predicting the onset of T2D (iAUC-ROC = 0.828, iAUC-PR = 0.294) and survival (iAUC-ROC = 0.827, iAUC-PR = 0.311). Stratification analysis unveils two distinct clusters for all comorbidities, effectively discriminated by variables like HbA1c for T2D and age at baseline for heart problems. The developed DBN constitutes an effective, highly-explainable predictive risk tool for simulating and stratifying the dynamic risk of developing cardio-metabolic comorbidities. Its use could help identify the effects of risk factors and develop health policies that prevent the occurrence of comorbidities., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background and Objective: In type 1 diabetes (T1D), a quantitative evaluation of the impact on hypoglycemia of suboptimal therapeutic decision (e.g. incorrect estimation of the ingested carbohydrates, inaccurate insulin timing, etc) is unavailable. Clinical trials to measure sensitivity to patient actions would be expensive, exposed to confounding factors and risky for the participants. In this work, a T1D patient decision simulator (T1D-PDS), realistically reproducing blood glucose dynamics in a large virtual population, is used to perform extensive in-silico trials and the so-derived data employed to implement a sensitivity analysis that ranks different behavioral factors based on their impact on a clinically meaningful parameter, the time below range (TBR)., Methods: Eleven behavioral factors impacting on hypoglycemia are considered. The T1D-PDS was used to perform multiple 2-week simulations involving 100 adults, by testing about 3500 different perturbations for nominal behavior. A local linear approximation of the function linking the TBR and the factors were computed to derive sensitivity indices (SIs), quantifying the impact of each factor on TBR variations., Results: The obtained ranking quantifies importance of factors w.r.t. the others. Factors apparently related to hypoglycemia were correctly placed on the top of the ranking, including systematic (SI=2.05%) and random (SI=1.35%) carb-counting error, hypotreatment dose (SI=-1.21%), insulin bolus time w.r.t. mealtime (SI=1.09%)., Conclusions: The obtained SIs allowed to rank behavioral factors based on their impact on TBR. The behavioral factors identified as most influential can be prioritized in patient training., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest None., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: The retrospective analysis of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) timeseries can be hampered by colored and non-stationary measurement noise. Here, we introduce a Bayesian denoising (BD) algorithm to address both autocorrelation of measurement noise and temporal variability of its variance. Methods: BD utilizes adaptive, a-priori models of signal and noise, whose unknown variances are derived on partially-overlapped CGM windows, via smoothing approach based on linear mean square estimation. The CGM signal and noise variability profiles are then reconstructed using a kernel smoother. BD is first assessed on two simulated datasets, D S1 and D S2 . On D S1 , the effectiveness of accounting for colored noise is evaluated by comparison against a literature algorithm; on D S2 , the effectiveness of accounting for the noise variance temporal variability is evaluated by comparison against a Butterworth filter. BD is then evaluated on 15 CGM timeseries measured by the Dexcom G6 (D R ). Results: On D S1 , BD allows reducing the root-mean-square-error (RMSE) from 8.10 [6.79-9.24] mg/dL to 6.28 [5.47-7.27] mg/dL (median [IQR]); on D S2 , RMSE decreases from 6.85 [5.50-8.72] mg/dL to 5.35 [4.48-6.49] mg/dL. On D R , BD performs a reasonable tracking of noise variance variability and a satisfactory denoising. Discussion: The new algorithm effectively addresses the nature of CGM measurement error, outperforming existing denoising algorithms., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest. Dexcom, Inc. (San Diego, CA, United States) did not edit or influenced the material presented therein. None of the data, or data or analysis derived from the data, are derived using Dexcom, Inc. proprietary algorithms in any way. Nor does anything in this paper, including descriptions of algorithms and the state-of-the-art, purport to describe or use such proprietary algorithms. However, the algorithms disclosed in this paper may be covered by one or more US and international pending patents and applications., (Copyright © 2023 Camerlingo, Siviero, Vettoretti, Sparacino, Del Favero and Facchinetti.)

Background: The ageing global population presents significant public health challenges, especially in relation to the subjective wellbeing of the elderly. In this study, our aim was to investigate the potential for developing a model to forecast the two-year variation of the perceived wellbeing of individuals aged over 50. We also aimed to identify the variables that predict changes in subjective wellbeing, as measured by the CASP-12 scale, over a two-year period., Methods: Data from the European SHARE project were used, specifically the demographic, health, social and financial variables of 9422 subjects. The subjective wellbeing was measured through the CASP-12 scale. The study outcome was defined as binary, i.e., worsening/not worsening of the variation of CASP-12 in 2 years. Logistic regression, logistic regression with LASSO regularisation, and random forest were considered candidate models. Performance was assessed in terms of accuracy in correctly predicting the outcome, Area Under the Curve (AUC), and F1 score., Results: The best-performing model was the random forest, achieving an accuracy of 65%, AUC = 0.659, and F1 = 0.710. All models proved to be able to generalise both across subjects and over time. The most predictive variables were the CASP-12 score at baseline, the presence of depression and financial difficulties., Conclusions: While we identify the random forest model as the more suitable, given the similarity of performance, the models based on logistic regression or on logistic regression with LASSO regularisation are also possible options., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Objective: Design and assessment of new therapies for type 1 diabetes (T1D) management can be greatly facilitated by in silico simulations. The ReplayBG simulation methodology here proposed allows "replaying" the scenario behind data already collected by simulating the glucose concentration obtained in response to alternative insulin/carbohydrate therapies and evaluate their efficacy leveraging the concept of digital twin., Methods: ReplayBG is based on two steps. First, a personalized model of glucose-insulin dynamics is identified using insulin, carbohydrate, and continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) data. Then, this model is used to simulate the glucose concentration that would have been obtained by "replaying" the same portion of data using a different therapy. The validity of the methodology was evaluated on 100 virtual subjects using the UVa/Padova T1D Simulator (T1DS). In particular, the glucose concentration traces simulated by ReplayBG are compared with those provided by T1DS in five different scenarios of insulin and carbohydrate treatment modifications. Furthermore, we compared ReplayBG with a state-of-the-art methodology for the scope. Finally, two case studies using real data are also presented., Results: ReplayBG simulates with high accuracy the effect of the considered insulin and carbohydrate treatment alterations, performing significantly better than state-of-art method in almost all considered situations., Conclusion: ReplayBG proved to be a reliable and robust tool to retrospectively explore the effect of new treatments for T1D on the glucose dynamics. It is freely available as open source software at https://github.com/gcappon/replay-bg., Significance: ReplayBG offers a new approach to preliminary evaluate new therapies for T1D management before clinical trials.

Background and Objective: Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) sensors measure interstitial glucose concentration every 1-5 min for days or weeks. New CGM-based diabetes therapies are often tested in in silico clinical trials (ISCTs) using diabetes simulators. Accurate models of CGM sensor inaccuracies and failures could help improve the realism of ISCTs. However, the modeling of CGM failures has not yet been fully addressed in the literature. This work aims to develop a mathematical model of CGM gaps, i.e., occasional portions of missing data generated by temporary sensor errors (e.g., excessive noise or artifacts)., Methods: Two datasets containing CGM traces collected in 167 adults and 205 children, respectively, using the Dexcom G6 sensor (Dexcom Inc., San Diego, CA) were used. Four Markov models, of increasing complexity, were designed to describe three main characteristics: number of gaps for each sensor, gap distribution in the monitoring days, and gap duration. Each model was identified on a portion of each dataset (training set). The remaining portion of each dataset (real test set) was used to evaluate model performance through a Monte Carlo simulation approach. Each model was used to generate 100 simulated test sets with the same size as the real test set. The distributions of gap characteristics on the simulated test sets were compared with those observed on the real test set, using the two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and the Jensen-Shannon divergence., Results: A six-state Markov model, having two states to describe normal sensor operation and four states to describe gap occurrence, achieved the best results. For this model, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test found no significant differences between the distribution of simulated and real gap characteristics. Moreover, this model obtained significantly lower Jensen-Shannon divergence values than the other models., Conclusions: A Markov model describing CGM gaps was developed and validated on two real datasets. The model describes well the number of gaps for each sensor, the gap distribution over monitoring days, and the gap durations. Such a model can be integrated into existing diabetes simulators to realistically simulate CGM gaps in ISCTs and thus enable the development of more effective and robust diabetes management strategies., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors have no conflict of interest to declare., (Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Background: Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal neurodegenerative disorder characterised by the progressive loss of motor neurons in the brain and spinal cord. The fact that ALS's disease course is highly heterogeneous, and its determinants not fully known, combined with ALS's relatively low prevalence, renders the successful application of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques particularly arduous., Objective: This systematic review aims at identifying areas of agreement and unanswered questions regarding two notable applications of AI in ALS, namely the automatic, data-driven stratification of patients according to their phenotype, and the prediction of ALS progression. Differently from previous works, this review is focused on the methodological landscape of AI in ALS., Methods: We conducted a systematic search of the Scopus and PubMed databases, looking for studies on data-driven stratification methods based on unsupervised techniques resulting in (A) automatic group discovery or (B) a transformation of the feature space allowing patient subgroups to be identified; and for studies on internally or externally validated methods for the prediction of ALS progression. We described the selected studies according to the following characteristics, when applicable: variables used, methodology, splitting criteria and number of groups, prediction outcomes, validation schemes, and metrics., Results: Of the starting 1604 unique reports (2837 combined hits between Scopus and PubMed), 239 were selected for thorough screening, leading to the inclusion of 15 studies on patient stratification, 28 on prediction of ALS progression, and 6 on both stratification and prediction. In terms of variables used, most stratification and prediction studies included demographics and features derived from the ALSFRS or ALSFRS-R scores, which were also the main prediction targets. The most represented stratification methods were K-means, and hierarchical and expectation-maximisation clustering; while random forests, logistic regression, the Cox proportional hazard model, and various flavours of deep learning were the most widely used prediction methods. Predictive model validation was, albeit unexpectedly, quite rarely performed in absolute terms (leading to the exclusion of 78 eligible studies), with the overwhelming majority of included studies resorting to internal validation only., Conclusion: This systematic review highlighted a general agreement in terms of input variable selection for both stratification and prediction of ALS progression, and in terms of prediction targets. A striking lack of validated models emerged, as well as a general difficulty in reproducing many published studies, mainly due to the absence of the corresponding parameter lists. While deep learning seems promising for prediction applications, its superiority with respect to traditional methods has not been established; there is, instead, ample room for its application in the subfield of patient stratification. Finally, an open question remains on the role of new environmental and behavioural variables collected via novel, real-time sensors., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Objective: Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) may be challenged by extreme conditions during cardiac surgery using hypothermic extracorporeal circulation (ECC)., Research Design and Methods: We evaluated the Dexcom G6 sensor in 16 subjects undergoing cardiac surgery with hypothermic ECC, of whom 11 received deep hypothermic circulatory arrest (DHCA). Arterial blood glucose, quantified by the Accu-Chek Inform II meter, served as reference., Results: Intrasurgery mean absolute relative difference (MARD) of 256 paired CGM/reference values was 23.8%. MARD was 29.1% during ECC (154 pairs) and 41.6% immediately after DHCA (10 pairs), with a negative bias (signed relative difference: -13.7%, -26.6%, and -41.6%). During surgery, 86.3% pairs were in Clarke error grid zones A or B and 41.0% of sensor readings fulfilled the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) 15197:2013 norm. Postsurgery, MARD was 15.0%., Conclusions: Cardiac surgery using hypothermic ECC challenges the accuracy of the Dexcom G6 CGM although recovery appears to occur thereafter., (© 2023 by the American Diabetes Association.)