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Introduction: Worldwide, the 33 recognised megacities comprise approximately 7% of the global population, yet account for 20% COVID-19 deaths. The specific inequities and other factors within megacities that affect vulnerability to COVID-19 mortality remain poorly defined. We assessed individual, community-level and healthcare factors associated with COVID-19-related mortality in a megacity of Jakarta, Indonesia, during two epidemic waves spanning 2 March 2020 to 31 August 2021., Methods: This retrospective cohort included residents of Jakarta, Indonesia, with PCR-confirmed COVID-19. We extracted demographic, clinical, outcome (recovered or died), vaccine coverage data and disease prevalence from Jakarta Health Office surveillance records, and collected subdistrict level sociodemographics data from various official sources. We used multilevel logistic regression to examine individual, community and subdistrict-level healthcare factors and their associations with COVID-19 mortality., Results: Of 705 503 cases with a definitive outcome by 31 August 2021, 694 706 (98.5%) recovered and 10 797 (1.5%) died. The median age was 36 years (IQR 24-50), 13.2% (93 459) were <18 years and 51.6% were female. The subdistrict level accounted for 1.5% of variance in mortality (p<0.0001). Mortality ranged from 0.9 to 1.8% by subdistrict. Individual-level factors associated with death were older age, male sex, comorbidities and age <5 years during the first wave (adjusted OR (aOR)) 1.56, 95% CI 1.04 to 2.35; reference: age 20-29 years). Community-level factors associated with death were poverty (aOR for the poorer quarter 1.35, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.55; reference: wealthiest quarter) and high population density (aOR for the highest density 1.34, 95% CI 1.14 to 2.58; reference: the lowest). Healthcare factor associated with death was low vaccine coverage (aOR for the lowest coverage 1.25, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.38; reference: the highest)., Conclusion: In addition to individual risk factors, living in areas with high poverty and density, and low healthcare performance further increase the vulnerability of communities to COVID-19-associated death in urban low-resource settings., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: As in many countries, quantifying COVID-19 spread in Indonesia remains challenging due to testing limitations. In Java, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented throughout 2020. However, as a vaccination campaign launches, cases and deaths are rising across the island., Methods: We used modelling to explore the extent to which data on burials in Jakarta using strict COVID-19 protocols (C19P) provide additional insight into the transmissibility of the disease, epidemic trajectory, and the impact of NPIs. We assess how implementation of NPIs in early 2021 will shape the epidemic during the period of likely vaccine rollout., Results: C19P burial data in Jakarta suggest a death toll approximately 3.3 times higher than reported. Transmission estimates using these data suggest earlier, larger, and more sustained impact of NPIs. Measures to reduce sub-national spread, particularly during Ramadan, substantially mitigated spread to more vulnerable rural areas. Given current trajectory, daily cases and deaths are likely to increase in most regions as the vaccine is rolled out. Transmission may peak in early 2021 in Jakarta if current levels of control are maintained. However, relaxation of control measures is likely to lead to a subsequent resurgence in the absence of an effective vaccination campaign., Conclusions: Syndromic measures of mortality provide a more complete picture of COVID-19 severity upon which to base decision-making. The high potential impact of the vaccine in Java is attributable to reductions in transmission to date and dependent on these being maintained. Increases in control in the relatively short-term will likely yield large, synergistic increases in vaccine impact.

Background: Data on COVID-19-related mortality and associated factors from low-resource settings are scarce. This study examined clinical characteristics and factors associated with in-hospital mortality of COVID-19 patients in Jakarta, Indonesia, from March 2 to July 31, 2020., Methods: This retrospective cohort included all hospitalised patients with PCR-confirmed COVID-19 in 55 hospitals. We extracted demographic and clinical data, including hospital outcomes (discharge or death). We used logistic regression to examine factors associated with mortality., Findings: Of 4265 patients with a definitive outcome by July 31, 3768 (88%) were discharged and 497 (12%) died. The median age was 46 years (IQR 32-57), 5% were children, and 31% had >1 comorbidity. Age-specific mortalities were 11% (7/61) for <5 years; 4% (1/23) for 5-9; 2% (3/133) for 10-19; 2% (8/638) for 20-29; 3% (26/755) for 30-39; 7% (61/819) for 40-49; 17% (155/941) for 50-59; 22% (132/611) for 60-69; and 34% (96/284) for ≥70. Risk of death was associated with higher age, male sex; pre-existing hypertension, diabetes, or chronic kidney disease; clinical diagnosis of pneumonia; multiple (>3) symptoms; immediate ICU admission, or intubation. Across all ages, risk of death was higher for patients with >1 comorbidity compared to those without; notably the risk was six-fold increased among patients <50 years (adjusted odds ratio 5.87, 95%CI 3.28-10.52; 27% vs 3% mortality)., Interpretation: Overall in-hospital mortality was lower than reported in high-income countries, probably due to younger age distribution and fewer comorbidities. Deaths occurred across all ages, with >10% mortality among children <5 years and adults >50 years., Competing Interests: We declare no competing interests., (© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Competing Interests: A. Leleu, M. Desroziers, G. Juillien et V. Verry déclarent n’avoir aucun lien d’intérêts.