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Predicting the effects of warming temperatures on the abundance and distribution of organisms under future climate scenarios often requires extrapolating species-environment correlations to climatic conditions not currently experienced by a species, which can result in unrealistic predictions. For poikilotherms, incorporating species' thermal physiology to inform extrapolations under novel thermal conditions can result in more realistic predictions. Furthermore, models that incorporate species and spatial dependencies may improve predictions by capturing correlations present in ecological data that are not accounted for by predictor variables. Here, we present a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance (jsPGA) model for predicting multispecies responses to climate warming. The jsPGA model uses a basis function approach to capture both species and spatial dependencies. We apply the jsPGA model to predict the response of eight fish species to projected climate warming in thousands of lakes in Minnesota, USA. By the end of the century, the cold-adapted species was predicted to have high probabilities of extirpation across its current range-with 10% of lakes currently inhabited by this species having an extirpation probability >0.90. The remaining species had varying levels of predicted changes in abundance, reflecting differences in their thermal physiology. Though the model did not identify many strong species dependencies, the variation in estimated spatial dependence across species suggested that accounting for both dependencies was important for predicting the abundance of these fishes. The jsPGA model provides a new tool for predicting changes in the abundance, distribution, and extirpation probability of poikilotherms under novel thermal conditions.

Habitat loss is an important driver in the rapid decline of many insects. The restoration of roadside habitat has been touted as an opportunity to support communities of bumble bees and butterflies, two insect groups of conservation concern. However, it is unclear how current roadside restoration methods translate to pollinator abundance and diversity.Here, we ask how the plant communities of roadsides seeded with native and non‐native seed mixes affect bumble bee and butterfly communities 2–20 years after planting.We found that bumble bee and butterfly abundance and diversity were positively correlated with floral abundance and diversity. However, the pollinator community in plots planted with diverse native seed mixes did not differ from that found in plots seeded with species‐poor non‐native mixes, likely because many forbs in the native seed mixes had poor establishment, and all plots were readily colonised by species that were never planted.While plots with more native flowers did not necessarily support higher pollinator diversity, we did find several native plants that established well in roadsides and supported pollinators, including goldenrods (Solidago spp.), milkweeds (Asclepias spp.) and wild bergamot (Monarda fistulosa).Our data suggest that managing a more diverse and abundant floral community will benefit bumble bees and butterflies. Refining the composition of native seed mixes, adding more floral abundance to non‐native mixes and investing in management for native plant communities may increase the habitat value of roadsides for pollinator communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]