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The term nowcast in hydrometeorology reflects the need for timely and accurate predictions of risky environmental situations, which are related to the development of severe meteorological events at short time scales. The objective of this paper is to apply a fully neural-network approach to the rainfall field nowcasting from infrared (IR) and microwave (MW) passive-sensor imagery aboard, respectively, geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) and low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites. The multi-satellite space-time prediction procedure, which is named Neural Combined Algorithm for Storm Tracking (NeuCAST), consists of two consecutive steps. First, the IR radiance field measured from a geostationary satellite radiometer (e.g., Meteosat) is projected ahead in time (e.g., 30 min); second, the projected radiance field is used in estimating the rainfall field by means of an MW-IR combined rain retrieval algorithm exploiting GEO-LEO observations. The NeuCAST methodology is extensively illustrated and discussed in this paper. Its accuracy is quantified by means of quantitative error indexes, which are evaluated on selected case studies of rainfall events in Southern Europe in 2003 and 2005. Index Terms--Neural network (NN), nowcasting methods, passive sensors, precipitation retrieval, satellite remote sensing.

Flood and flash floods are complex events, depending on weather dynamics, basin physiographical characteristics, land use cover and water management. For this reason, prediction of such events usually deals with very accurate model tuning and validation, which is usually site-specific and based on climatological data, such as discharge time series or flood databases. In this work, we developed and tested two hydrological stress indices for flood detection in the Central Italy Apennine District: a heterogeneous geographical area, characterized by complex topography and medium-to-small catchment extension. Proposed indices are threshold-based and developed taking into account operational requirements of civil protection end-users. They are calibrated and tested through the application of signal theory, in order to overcome data scarcity over ungauged areas, as well as incomplete discharge time series. The validation has been carried out on a case study basis, through the use of flood reports from various source of information, as well as hydrometric level time series, which represent the actual hydrological quantity monitored by civil protection operators. Obtained results shows as the overall accuracy of flood prediction is greater than 0.8, with false alarm rates below 0.5 and probability of detection ranging from 0.51 to 0.80. A slight anticipation of peak occurrence was found, however, the time shift of indices signal peak it is strongly dependent on the presence of dams that regulates the flood propagation. Moreover, the different nature of the proposed indices suggests their application in a complementary way, as the index based on drained precipitation appears to be more sensible to rapid flood propagation in small tributaries, while the discharge-based index is particularly responsive to main channel dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The weather forecasts for precipitation have considerably improved in recent years thanks to the increase of computational power. This allows to use both a higher spatial resolutions and the newly developed parameterization schemes for representing sub-grid scale physical processes. However, precipitation estimation is still affected by errors that can impact on the response of hydrological models. To the aim of considering the uncertainties in the precipitation forecast and how they propagate in the hydrological model, an ensemble approach is investigated. A meteo-hydro ensemble system is built to forecast events in a complex orography terrain where catchments of different size are present. In this context, the meteo-hydrological forecast system is implemented and tested for a severe hydrological event occurred over Central Italy on November 15, 2017. During this period, a flash flood hit the Abruzzo region causing precipitation up to 200 mm/24 hours and producing damages with a high impact on social and economic activities. The newly developed meteo-hydro ensemble system is compared with a high resolution deterministic forecast and with the observations over the same area, showing a very good response. In addition, the ensemble allows for an estimation of the predictability of the event a few days in advance and of the uncertainty of this flood. Although the modelling framework is implemented on the basins of Abruzzo region, it is portable and applicable to other areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Total peroxy nitrate ( ∑ PN) concentrations have been measured using a thermal dissociation laser-induced fluorescence (TD-LIF) instrument during the BORTAS campaign, which focused on the impact of boreal biomass burning (BB) emissions on air quality in the Northern Hemisphere. The strong correlation observed between the  ∑ PN concentrations and those of carbon monoxide (CO), a well-known pyrogenic tracer, suggests the possible use of the  ∑ PN concentrations as marker of the BB plumes. Two methods for the identification of BB plumes have been applied: (1)  ∑ PN concentrations higher than 6 times the standard deviation above the background and (2)  ∑ PN concentrations higher than the 99th percentile of the  ∑ PNs measured during a background flight (B625); then we compared the percentage of BB plume selected using these methods with the percentage evaluated, applying the approaches usually used in literature. Moreover, adding the pressure threshold ( ∼  750 hPa) as ancillary parameter to  ∑ PNs, hydrogen cyanide (HCN) and CO, the BB plume identification is improved. A recurrent artificial neural network (ANN) model was adapted to simulate the concentrations of  ∑ PNs and HCN, including nitrogen oxide (NO), acetonitrile (CH3CN), CO, ozone (O3) and atmospheric pressure as input parameters, to verify the specific role of these input data to better identify BB plumes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]