Search

The Earth system has long lived with fires,1 , 2 but the impact of climate change on fire regimes has led to extreme wildfire events with higher intensity and faster spread.3 , 4 , 5 This has effects on ecosystems and resources, air pollution, and, ultimately, human societies.6 Facing these compounding challenges require interdisciplinary solutions and collaborations. In this Backstory, we bring together fire researchers across fields, aiming to foster discussions and collaborations across disciplines, for us to better understand how we can learn to live with fire.

Abstract. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society and the environment. However, our understanding of the global distribution of extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage and regional research concentration. This inaugural State of Wildfires report systematically analyses fire activity worldwide, identifying extreme events from the March 2023–February 2024 fire season. We assess the causes, predictability, and attribution of these events to climate change and land use, and forecast future risks under different climate scenarios. During the 2023–24 fire season, 3.9 million km2 burned globally, slightly below the average of previous seasons, but fire carbon (C) emissions were 16 % above average, totaling 2.4 Pg C. This was driven by record emissions in Canadian boreal forests (over 9 times the average) and dampened by reduced activity in African savannahs. Notable events included record-breaking wildfire extent and emissions in Canada, the largest recorded wildfire in the European Union (Greece), drought-driven fires in western Amazonia and northern parts of South America, and deadly fires in Hawai’i (100 deaths) and Chile (131 deaths). Over 232,000 people were evacuated in Canada alone, highlighting the severity of human impact. Our analyses revealed that multiple drivers were needed to cause areas of extreme fire activity. In Canada and Greece a combination of high fire weather and an abundance of dry fuels increased the probability of fires by 4.5-fold and 1.9–4.1-fold, respectively, whereas fuel load and direct human suppression often modulated areas with anomalous burned area. The fire season in Canada was predictable three months in advance based on the fire weather index, whereas events in Greece and Amazonia had shorter predictability horizons. Formal attribution analyses indicated that the probability of extreme events has increased significantly due to anthropogenic climate change, with a 2.9–3.6-fold increase in likelihood of high fire weather in Canada and a 20.0–28.5-fold increase in Amazonia. By the end of the century, events of similar magnitude are projected to occur 2.22–9.58 times more frequently in Canada under high emission scenarios. Without mitigation, regions like Western Amazonia could see up to a 2.9-fold increase in extreme fire events. For the 2024–25 fire season, seasonal forecasts highlight moderate positive anomalies in fire weather for parts of western Canada and South America, but no clear signal for extreme anomalies is present in the forecast. This report represents our first annual effort to catalogue extreme wildfire events, explain their occurrence, and predict future risks. By consolidating state-of-the-art wildfire science and delivering key insights relevant to policymakers, disaster management services, firefighting agencies, and land managers, we aim to enhance society’s resilience to wildfires and promote advances in preparedness, mitigation, and adaptation.

Fire impacts many vegetated ecosystems across the world. The severity of a fire is major component in determining post-fire effects, including soil erosion, trace gas emissions, and the trajectory of recovery. In this study, we used imaging spectroscopy data combined with Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA), a form of spectral mixture analysis that accounts for endmember variability, to map fire severity of the 2013 Rim Fire. We evaluated four endmember selection approaches: Iterative Endmember Selection (IES), count-based within endmember class (In-CoB), Endmember Average Root Mean Squared Error (EAR), and Minimum Average Spectral Angle (MASA). To reduce the dimensionality of the imaging spectroscopy data we used uncorrelated Stable Zone Unmixing (uSZU). Fractional cover maps derived from MESMA were validated using two approaches: (1) manual interpretation of fine spatial resolutionWorldView-2 imagery; and (2) ground plots measuring the Geo Composite Burn Index (GeoCBI) and the percentage of co-dominant and dominant trees with green, brown, and black needles. Comparison to reference data demonstrated fairly high correlation for green vegetation and char fractions (r2 values as high as 0.741 for the MESMA ash fractions compared to classifiedWorldView-2 imagery and as high as 0.841 for green vegetation fractions). The combination of uSZU band selection and In-CoB endmember selection had the best trade-offbetween accuracy and computational efficiency. This study demonstrated that detailed fire severity retrievals based on imaging spectroscopy can be optimized using techniques that would be viable also in a satellite-based imaging spectrometer.

High-latitude ecosystems have the capacity to release large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere in response to increasing temperatures, representing a potentially significant positive feedback within the climate system. Here, we combine aircraft and tower observations of atmospheric CO2 with remote sensing data and meteorological products to derive temporally and spatially resolved year-round CO2 fluxes across Alaska during 2012-2014. We find that tundra ecosystems were a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere annually, with especially high rates of respiration during early winter (October through December). Long-term records at Barrow, AK, suggest that CO2 emission rates from North Slope tundra have increased during the October through December period by 73% ± 11% since 1975, and are correlated with rising summer temperatures. Together, these results imply increasing early winter respiration and net annual emission of CO2 in Alaska, in response to climate warming. Our results provide evidence that the decadal-scale increase in the amplitude of the CO2 seasonal cycle may be linked with increasing biogenic emissions in the Arctic, following the growing season. Early winter respiration was not well simulated by the Earth System Models used to forecast future carbon fluxes in recent climate assessments. Therefore, these assessments may underestimate the carbon release from Arctic soils in response to a warming climate.

Forest fires are usually viewed within the context of a single fire season, in which weather conditions and fuel supply can combine to create conditions favourable for fire ignition--usually by lightning or human activity--and spread.sup.1-3. But some fires exhibit 'overwintering' behaviour, in which they smoulder through the non-fire season and flare up in the subsequent spring.sup.4,5. In boreal (northern) forests, deep organic soils favourable for smouldering.sup.6, along with accelerated climate warming.sup.7, may present unusually favourable conditions for overwintering. However, the extent of overwintering in boreal forests and the underlying factors influencing this behaviour remain unclear. Here we show that overwintering fires in boreal forests are associated with hot summers generating large fire years and deep burning into organic soils, conditions that have become more frequent in our study areas in recent decades. Our results are based on an algorithm with which we detect overwintering fires in Alaska, USA, and the Northwest Territories, Canada, using field and remote sensing datasets. Between 2002 and 2018, overwintering fires were responsible for 0.8 per cent of the total burned area; however, in one year this amounted to 38 per cent. The spatiotemporal predictability of overwintering fires could be used by fire management agencies to facilitate early detection, which may result in reduced carbon emissions and firefighting costs. Large forest fires in Alaska and the Northwest Territories can 'overwinter' and then reignite in the following fire season, contributing up to one-third of the burned area in individual years., Author(s): Rebecca C. Scholten [sup.1] , Randi Jandt [sup.2] , Eric A. Miller [sup.3] , Brendan M. Rogers [sup.4] , Sander Veraverbeke [sup.1] Author Affiliations: (1) Faculty of Science, Vrije [...]

The area burned by Southern California wildfires has increased in recent decades, with implications for human health, infrastructure, and ecosystem management. Meteorology and fuel structure are universally recognized controllers of wildfire, but their relative importance, and hence the efficacy of abatement and suppression efforts, remains controversial. Southern California's wildfires can be partitioned by meteorology: fires typically occur either during Santa Ana winds (SA fires) in October through April, or warm and dry periods in June through September (non-SA fires). Previous work has not quantitatively distinguished between these fire regimes when assessing economic impacts or climate change influence. Here we separate five decades of fire perimeters into those coinciding with and without SA winds. The two fire types contributed almost equally to burned area, yet SA fires were responsible for 80% of cumulative 1990-2009 economic losses ($3.1 Billion). The damage disparity was driven by fire characteristics: SA fires spread three times faster, occurred closer to urban areas, and burned into areas with greater housing values. Non-SA fires were comparatively more sensitive to age-dependent fuels, often occurred in higher elevation forests, lasted for extended periods, and accounted for 70% of total suppression costs. An improved distinction of fire type has implications for future projections and management. The area burned in non-SA fires is projected to increase 77% (±43%) by the mid-21st century with warmer and drier summers, and the SA area burned is projected to increase 64% (±76%), underscoring the need to evaluate the allocation and effectiveness of suppression investments.

High temporal resolution information on burnt area is needed to improve fire behaviour and emissions models. We used the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) thermal anomaly and active fire product (MO(Y)D14) as input to a kriging interpolation to derive continuous maps of the timing of burnt area for 16 large wildland fires. For each fire, parameters for the kriging model were defined using variogram analysis. The optimal number of observations used to estimate a pixel's time of burning varied between four and six among the fires studied. The median standard error from kriging ranged between 0.80 and 3.56 days and the median standard error from geolocation uncertainty was between 0.34 and 2.72 days. For nine fires in the south-western US, the accuracy of the kriging model was assessed using high spatial resolution daily fire perimeter data available from the US Forest Service. For these nine fires, we also assessed the temporal reporting accuracy of the MODIS burnt area products (MCD45A1 and MCD64A1). Averaged over the nine fires, the kriging method correctly mapped 73% of the pixels within the accuracy of a single day, compared with 33% for MCD45A1 and 53% for MCD64A1. Systematic application of this algorithm to wildland fires in the future may lead to new information about vegetation, climate and topographic controls on fire behaviour. © IAWF 2014.

Boreal fire regimes are intensifying because of climate change and the northern parts of boreal forests are underlain by permafrost. Boreal fires combust vegetation and organic soils, which insulate permafrost, and as such deepen the seasonally thawed active layer and can lead to further carbon emissions to the atmosphere. Current understanding of the environmental drivers of post-fire thaw depth is limited but of critical importance. In addition, mapping thaw depth over fire scars may enable a better understanding of the spatial variability in post-fire responses of permafrost soils. We assessed the environmental drivers of post-fire thaw depth using field data from a fire scar in a larch-dominated forest in the continuous permafrost zone in Eastern Siberia. Particularly, summer thaw depth was deeper in burned (mean = 127.3 cm, standard deviation (sd) = 27.7 cm) than in unburned (98.1 cm, sd = 26.9 cm) landscapes one year after the fire, yet the effect of fire was modulated by landscape and vegetation characteristics. We found deeper thaw in well-drained landscape positions, in open larch forest often intermixed with Scots pine, and in high severity burns. The environmental drivers, site moisture, forest type and density, and fire severity explained 73.4 % of the measured thaw depth variability at the study sites. In addition, we evaluated the relationships between field-measured thaw depth and several remote sensing proxies. Albedo, the differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR), land surface temperature (LST), and pre-fire Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Landsat 8 imagery together explained 66.3 % of the variability in field-measured thaw depth. Based on these remote sensing proxies and multiple linear regression analysis, we estimated thaw depth over the entire fire scar, and found that LST displayed particularly strong correlations with post-fire thaw depth (r = 0.65, p < 0.01). Our study reveals some of the governing processes of post-fire thaw depth development and shows the capability of Landsat imagery to estimate thaw depth at a landscape scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, even though originally developed and calibrated for an upland Jack pine forest, is used globally to estimate fire danger for any fire environment. However, for some environments, such as peatlands, the applicability of the FWI in its current form, is often questioned. In this study, we replaced the original moisture codes of the FWI with hydrological estimates resulting from the assimilation of satellite-based L-band passive microwave observations into a peatland-specific land surface model. In a conservative approach that maintains the integrity of the original FWI structure, the distributions of the hydrological estimates were first matched to those of the corresponding original moisture codes before replacement. The resulting adapted FWI, hereafter called FWI peat , was evaluated using satellite-based information on fire presence over boreal peatlands from 2010 through 2018. Adapting the FWI with model- and satellite-based hydrological information was found to be beneficial in estimating fire danger, especially when replacing the deeper moisture codes of the FWI. For late-season fires, further adaptations of the fine fuel moisture code show even more improvement due to the fact that late-season fires are more hydrologically driven. The proposed FWI peat should enable improved monitoring of fire risk in boreal peatlands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]