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This paper develops a decision support tool that can help fishery authorities to forecast bivalve landings for the dredge fleet accounting for several contextual conditions. These include weather conditions, phytotoxins episodes, stock-biomass indicators per species and tourism levels. Vessel characteristics and fishing effort are also taken into account for the estimation of landings. The relationship between these factors and monthly quantities landed per vessel is explored using multiple linear regression models and data mining techniques (random forests, support vector machines and neural networks). The models are specified for different regions in the Portugal mainland (Northwest, Southwest and South) using six years of data 2010-2015). Results showed that the impact of the contextual factors varies between regions and also depends on the vessels target species. The data mining techniques, namely the random forests, proved to be a robust decision support tool in this context, outperforming the predictive performance of the most popular technique used in this context, i.e. linear regression. Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT, Portugal) [SFRH/BPD/99570/2014] ERDF European Regional Development Fund through the Operational Programme for Competitiveness and Internationalisation - COMPETE Programme [POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006961] National Funds through the FCT Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia (Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) [UID/EEA/50014/2013] project MONTEREAL MAR Program European fund for Fisheries and Maritime Affairs (EFFM) Portuguese Government info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

The chapter aims to launch a discussion about quality assurance (QA) in doctoral education in general and its external component in particular. Based on the analysis of the European context, it starts with an overview of the dynamics inherent to QA in doctoral education at the supranational, national and institutional levels. Then, and focusing specifically on the national level, an account is given on the external QA arrangements addressing doctoral education in thirteen European countries. It is found that these arrangements translate different degrees of governmental regulation as well as institutional autonomy, indicating QA approaches closer either to accountability or to quality enhancement. Finally, and without arguing for a best way of conducting external QA of doctoral education, the chapter brings forward some proposals for future developments at this level.

The present study puts forward a regression analytic model based on the random forest algorithm, developed to predict, at an early stage, the global academic performance of the undergraduates of a polytechnic higher education institution. The study targets the universe of an institution composed of 5 schools rather than following the usual procedure of delimiting the prediction to one single specific degree course. Hence, we intend to provide the institution with one single tool capable of including the heterogeneity of the universe of students as well as educational dynamics. A different approach to feature selection is proposed, which enables to completely exclude categories of predictive variables, making the model useful for scenarios in which not all categories of data considered are collected. The introduced model can be used at a central level by the decision-makers who are entitled to design actions to mitigate academic failure. This work was supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) under Project UID/EEA/04131/2013. The authors would also like to thank the Polytechnic Institute of Bragan¸ca for making available the data analysed in this study. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

The early classification of university students according to their potential academic performance can be a useful strategy to mitigate failure, to promote the achievement of better results and to better manage resources in higher education institutions. This paper proposes a two-stage model, supported by data mining techniques, that uses the information available at the end of the first year of students' academic career (path) to predict their overall academic performance. Unlike most literature on educational data mining, academic success is inferred from both the average grade achieved and the time taken to conclude the degree. Furthermore, this study proposes to segment students based on the dichotomy between the evidence of failure or high performance at the beginning of the degree program, and the students' performance levels predicted by the model. A data set of 2459 students, spanning the years from 2003 to 2015, from a European Engineering School of a public research University, is used to validate the proposed methodology. The empirical results demonstrate the ability of the proposed model to predict the students' performance level with an accuracy above 95%, in an early stage of the students' academic path. It is found that random forests are superior to the other classification techniques that were considered (decision trees, support vector machines, naive Bayes, bagged trees and boosted trees). Together with the prediction model, the suggested segmentation framework represents a useful tool to delineate the optimum strategies to apply, in order to promote higher performance levels and mitigate academic failure, overall increasing the quality of the academic experience provided by a higher education institution.

This paper presents a methodology based on random forest algorithm to predict the undergraduate academic performance of students from a polytechnic institution. The approach followed enabled to select 11 explanatory variables, starting from an initial set of around fifty, which allow to obtain a good predictive performance (R2=0.79). These variables reveal crucial aspects for the definition of management strategies focused on promoting academic success.

With the aim of disseminating the potential and the capacity of Educational Data Mining (EDM) as an instrument of investigation and analysis in the support to the management of Higher Education Institutions, this paper presents a brief description of some of the most relevant studies in the area. The analysis carried out allows to highlight the innovations that EDM has been promoting, as well as current and future research trends.

Customers’ response is an important topic in direct marketing. This study proposes a data mining response model supported by random forests to support the definition of target customers for banking campaigns. Class imbalance is a typical problem in telemarketing that can affect the performance of the data mining techniques. This study also contributes to the literature by exploring the use of class imbalance methods in the banking context. The performance of an undersampling method (the EasyEnsemble algorithm) is compared with that of an oversampling method (the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique) in order to determine the most appropriate specification. The importance of the attribute features included in the response model is also explored. In particular, discriminative performance was enhanced by the inclusion of demographic information, contact details and socio-economic features. Random forests, supported by an undersampling algorithm, presented very high prediction performance, outperforming the other techniques explored.

The information provided by online traveler reviews is becoming a key element in the decision-making process of hotel customers, reducing the uncertainty and the perceived risk of a traveler. Therefore, a careful analysis of the content provided by online customers’ reviews might give invaluable information concerning the key determinants, from a user’s perspective, of the quality of the service provided, justifying the attributed service rating. The objectives of this study are twofold: (1) use text-mining techniques to analyze the user’s generated content automatically collected from hotels in Porto in a certain period of time and, from this analysis, derive the most frequent terms used to describe the service; (2) understand whether it is possible to predict the aggregated rating assigned by reviewers based on the terms used and, at the same time, identify the terms showing high predictive capacity. Our study attempts to support hotel service managers in achieving their strategic and tactical goals by using innovative text- and data-mining tools to explore the wealth of information provided by user generated content in an easy and timely way.

Regulators of electricity distribution networks have typically applied Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to cross-section data for benchmarking purposes. However, the use of panel data to analyse the impact of regulatory policies on productivity change over time is less frequent. The main purpose of this paper is to construct a Malmquist productivity index to examine the recent productivity change experienced by Norwegian distribution companies between 2004 and 2007. The Malmquist index is decomposed in order to explore the sources of productivity change, and to identify the innovator companies that pushed the frontier forward each year. The input and output variables considered are those used by the Norwegian regulator. In order to reflect appropriately the exogenous conditions where the companies operate, the efficiency model used in this paper incorporates geography variables as outputs of the DEA model. Unlike the model used by the regulator, we included virtual weight restrictions in the DEA formulation to correct the biases in the DEA results that may be associated to a judicious choice of weights by some of the companies.

This paper aims to provide an assessment of urban quality of life (QoL) of European cities from the perspective of qualified human resources. The competitiveness of cities relies increasingly in their capacity to attract highly educated workers, as they are important assets for firms when choosing a location. Qualified human resources, on the other hand, tend to value QoL over other urban features. This is why policymakers and urban planners need to evaluate QoL of cities and be provided with tools that can guide action to improvements in this area. We assess urban QoL by means of a composite indicator constructed using data envelopment analysis, based on Urban Audit data and Mercer's framework of analysis, to give account of 246 European cities. Besides presenting a ranking of the best and the worst scores of QoL, this methodology allows benchmarking strategies.