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The response of forests to climate change depends in part on whether the photosynthetic benefit from increased atmospheric CO2 (∆Ca = future minus historic CO2) compensates for increased physiological stresses from higher temperature (∆T). We predicted the outcome of these competing responses by using optimization theory and a mechanistic model of tree water transport and photosynthesis. We simulated current and future productivity, stress, and mortality in mature monospecific stands with soil, species, and climate sampled from 20 continental US locations. We modeled stands with and without acclimation to ∆Ca and ∆T, where acclimated forests adjusted leaf area, photosynthetic capacity, and stand density to maximize productivity while avoiding stress. Without acclimation, the ∆Ca-driven boost in net primary productivity (NPP) was compromised by ∆T-driven stress and mortality associated with vascular failure. With acclimation, the ∆Ca-driven boost in NPP and stand biomass (C storage) was accentuated for cooler futures but negated for warmer futures by a ∆T-driven reduction in NPP and biomass. Thus, hotter futures reduced forest biomass through either mortality or acclimation. Forest outcomes depended on whether projected climatic ∆Ca/∆T ratios were above or below physiological thresholds that neutralized the negative impacts of warming. Critically, if forests do not acclimate, the ∆Ca/∆T must be above ca 89 ppm⋅°C-1 to avoid chronic stress, a threshold met by 55% of climate projections. If forests do acclimate, the ∆Ca/∆T must rise above ca 67 ppm⋅°C-1 for NPP and biomass to increase, a lower threshold met by 71% of projections.

Modeling stomatal control is critical for predicting forest responses to the changing environment and hence the global water and carbon cycles. A trait-based stomatal control model that optimizes carbon gain while avoiding hydraulic risk has been shown to perform well in response to drought. However, the model's performance against changes in atmospheric CO2, which is rising rapidly due to human emissions, has yet to be evaluated. The present study tested the gain-risk model's ability to predict the stomatal response to CO2 concentration with potted water birch (Betula occidentalis Hook.) saplings in a growth chamber. The model's performance in predicting stomatal response to changes in atmospheric relative humidity and soil moisture was also assessed. The gain-risk model predicted the photosynthetic assimilation, transpiration rate and leaf xylem pressure under different CO2 concentrations, having a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 25%. The model also predicted the responses to relative humidity and soil drought with a MAPE of 21.9% and 41.9%, respectively. Overall, the gain-risk model had an MAPE of 26.8% compared with the 37.5% MAPE obtained by a standard empirical model of stomatal conductance. Importantly, unlike empirical models, the optimization model relies on measurable physiological traits as inputs and performs well in predicting responses to novel environmental conditions without empirical corrections. Incorporating the optimization model in larger scale models has the potential for improving the simulation of water and carbon cycles.

Sap is transported through numerous conduits in the xylem of woody plants along the path from the soil to the leaves. When all conduits are functional, vessel lumen diameter is a strong predictor of hydraulic conductivity. As vessels become embolized, sap movement becomes increasingly affected by factors operating at scales beyond individual conduits, creating resistances that result in hydraulic conductivity diverging from diameter‐based estimates. These effects include pit resistances, connectivity, path length, network topology, and vessel or sector isolation. The impact of these factors varies with the level and distribution of emboli within the network, and manifest as alterations in the relationship between the number and diameter of embolized vessels with measured declines in hydraulic conductivity across vulnerability to embolism curves. Divergences between measured conductivity and diameter‐based estimates reveal functional differences that arise because of species‐ and tissue‐specific vessel network structures. Such divergences are not uniform, and xylem tissues may diverge in different ways and to differing degrees. Plants regularly operate under nonoptimal conditions and contain numerous embolized conduits. Understanding the hydraulic implications of emboli within a network and the function of partially embolized networks are critical gaps in our understanding of plants occurring within natural environments. Summary statement: As conduits embolize, the flow of sap through xylem conduit networks becomes limited by emergent traits that drive declines in hydraulic resistance. Understanding the hydraulic implications of emboli within the xylem is critical in our understanding of plants occurring within natural environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Global warming is expected to exacerbate the duration and intensity of droughts in the western United States, which may lead to increased tree mortality. A prevailing proximal mechanism of drought‐induced tree mortality is hydraulic damage, but predicting tree mortality from hydraulic theory and climate data still remains a major scientific challenge.We used forest inventory data and a plant hydraulic model (HM) to address three questions: can we capture regional patterns of drought‐induced tree mortality with HM‐predicted damage thresholds; do HM metrics improve predictions of mortality across broad spatial areas; and what are the dominant controls of forest mortality when considering stand characteristics, climate metrics, and simulated hydraulic stress?We found that the amount of variance explained by models predicting mortality was limited (R2 median = 0.10, R2 range: 0.00–0.52). HM outputs, including hydraulic damage and carbon assimilation diagnostics, moderately improve mortality prediction across the western US compared with models using stand and climate predictors alone.Among factors considered, metrics of stand density and tree size tended to be some of the most critical factors explaining mortality, probably highlighting the important roles of structural overshoot, stand development, and biotic agent host selection and outbreaks in mortality patterns. See also the Commentary on this article by Rowland et al., 230: 1685–1687. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of forests to climate change depends in part on whether the photosynthetic benefit from increased atmospheric CO2 (ΔCa = future minus historic CO2) compensates for increased physiological stresses from higher temperature (ΔT). We predicted the outcome of these competing responses by using optimization theory and a mechanistic model of tree water transport and photosynthesis. We simulated current and future productivity, stress, and mortality in mature monospecific stands with soil, species, and climate sampled from 20 continental US locations. We modeled stands with and without acclimation to ΔCa and ΔT, where acclimated forests adjusted leaf area, photosynthetic capacity, and stand density to maximize productivity while avoiding stress. Without acclimation, the ΔCa-driven boost in net primary productivity (NPP) was compromised by ΔT-driven stress and mortality associated with vascular failure. With acclimation, the ΔCa-driven boost in NPP and stand biomass (C storage) was accentuated for cooler futures but negated for warmer futures by a ΔT-driven reduction in NPP and biomass. Thus, hotter futures reduced forest biomass through either mortality or acclimation. Forest outcomes depended on whether projected climatic ΔCa/ΔT ratios were above or below physiological thresholds that neutralized the negative impacts of warming. Critically, if forests do not acclimate, the ΔCa/ΔT must be above ca. 89 ppm⋅°C-1 to avoid chronic stress, a threshold met by 55% of climate projections. If forests do acclimate, the ΔCa/ΔT must rise above ca. 67 ppm⋅°C-1 for NPP and biomass to increase, a lower threshold met by 71% of projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling stomatal control is critical for predicting forest responses to the changing environment and hence the global water and carbon cycles. A trait-based stomatal control model that optimizes carbon gain while avoiding hydraulic risk has been shown to perform well in response to drought. However, the model's performance against changes in atmospheric CO2, which is rising rapidly due to human emissions, has yet to be evaluated. The present study tested the gain–risk model's ability to predict the stomatal response to CO2 concentration with potted water birch (Betula occidentalis Hook.) saplings in a growth chamber. The model's performance in predicting stomatal response to changes in atmospheric relative humidity and soil moisture was also assessed. The gain–risk model predicted the photosynthetic assimilation, transpiration rate and leaf xylem pressure under different CO2 concentrations, having a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 25%. The model also predicted the responses to relative humidity and soil drought with a MAPE of 21.9% and 41.9%, respectively. Overall, the gain–risk model had an MAPE of 26.8% compared with the 37.5% MAPE obtained by a standard empirical model of stomatal conductance. Importantly, unlike empirical models, the optimization model relies on measurable physiological traits as inputs and performs well in predicting responses to novel environmental conditions without empirical corrections. Incorporating the optimization model in larger scale models has the potential for improving the simulation of water and carbon cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wilt diseases caused by vascular pathogens include some of the most damaging stresses affecting trees. Dutch elm disease (DED), caused by the fungus Ophiostoma novo-ulmi, destroyed most of North American and European elm populations in the 20th century. The highly susceptible English elm, also known as Atinian clone, suffered the highest mortality rates during the last pandemic event, probably due to its lack of genetic diversity. To study the DED pathosystem, we inoculated English elm ramets with O. novo-ulmi and evaluated xylem anatomy, molecular response, and disease symptoms. The high DED susceptibility of the clone was linked to xylem structure. The transcript levels changed significantly for 1,696 genes during O. novo-ulmi invasion. Genes covering different steps of the plant immune system were identified, many of which showed homology with Arabidopsis thaliana genes involved in systemic acquired resistance. Induction of several pathogenesis-related proteins and repression of fasciclin-like arabinogalactan proteins and other cell wall biosynthesis pathways evidence unbalanced costs between growth and defence mechanisms far from the inoculation point. This study sheds light on elm molecular defence mechanisms against DED. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stomatal regulation presumably evolved to optimize CO2 for H2O exchange in response to changing conditions. If the optimization criterion can be readily measured or calculated, then stomatal responses can be efficiently modelled without recourse to empirical models or underlying mechanism. Previous efforts have been challenged by the lack of a transparent index for the cost of losing water. Yet it is accepted that stomata control water loss to avoid excessive loss of hydraulic conductance from cavitation and soil drying. Proximity to hydraulic failure and desiccation can represent the cost of water loss. If at any given instant, the stomatal aperture adjusts to maximize the instantaneous difference between photosynthetic gain and hydraulic cost, then a model can predict the trajectory of stomatal responses to changes in environment across time. Results of this optimization model are consistent with the widely used Ball-Berry-Leuning empirical model ( r2 > 0.99) across a wide range of vapour pressure deficits and ambient CO2 concentrations for wet soil. The advantage of the optimization approach is the absence of empirical coefficients, applicability to dry as well as wet soil and prediction of plant hydraulic status along with gas exchange. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]