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Background: Syndromic surveillance for respiratory infections such as COVID-19 is a crucial part of the public health surveillance toolkit as it allows decision makers to detect and prepare for new waves of the disease in advance. However, it is labor-intensive, costly, and increases exposure to survey personnel. This study assesses the feasibility of conducting a mobile phone-based respiratory syndromic surveillance program in a middle-income country during a public health emergency, providing data to support the inclusion of this method in the standard infection control protocols at the population level., Objective: This study aims to assess the feasibility of a national active syndromic surveillance system for COVID-19 disease in Colombia., Methods: In total, 2 pilots of syndromic mobile phone surveys (MPSs) were deployed using interactive voice response technology in Colombia (367 complete surveys in March 2022 and 451 complete surveys in April and May 2022). Respondents aged 18 years and older were sampled using random digit dialing, and after obtaining consent, they were sent a 10-minute survey with modules on sociodemographic status, respiratory symptoms, past exposure to COVID-19 infection and vaccination status, preferences about COVID-19 vaccination, and information source for COVID-19. Pilot 1 used a nationally representative sample while pilot 2 used quota sampling to yield representative results at the regional level. In this work, we assessed the performance characteristics of the survey pilots and compared the demographic information collected with a nationally representative household survey., Results: For both pilots, contact rates were between 1% and 2%, while participation rates were above 80%. The results revealed that younger, female, and higher educated participants were more likely to participate in the syndromic survey. Survey rates as well as demographics, COVID-19 vaccination status, and prevalence of respiratory symptoms are reported for both pilots. We found that respondents of the MPSs are more likely to be younger and female., Conclusions: In a COVID-19 pandemic setting, using an interactive voice response MPS to conduct syndromic surveillance may be a transformational, low-risk, and feasible method to detect outbreaks. This evaluation expects to provide a path forward to the inclusion of MPSs as a traditional surveillance method., (©Andres I Vecino-Ortiz, Deivis Nicolas Guzman-Tordecilla, Vidhi Maniar, Sandra Agudelo-Londoño, Oscar Franco-Suarez, Nathaly Aya Pastrana, Mariana Rodríguez-Patarroyo, Marino Mejía-Rocha, Jaime Cardona, Mariangela Chavez Chamorro, Dustin Gibson. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (https://www.jmir.org), 17.10.2024.)

Background: Uptake of mobile phone surveys (MPS) is increasing in many low- and middle-income countries, particularly within the context of data collection on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) behavioural risk factors. One barrier to collecting representative data through MPS is capturing data from older participants.Respondent driven sampling (RDS) consists of chain-referral strategies where existing study subjects recruit follow-up participants purposively based on predefined eligibility criteria. Adapting RDS strategies to MPS efforts could, theoretically, yield higher rates of participation for that age group., Objective: To investigate factors that influence the perceived acceptability of a RDS recruitment method for MPS involving people over 45 years of age living in Colombia., Methods: An MPS recruitment strategy deploying RDS techniques was piloted to increase participation of older populations. We conducted a qualitative study that drew from surveys with open and closed-ended items, semi-structured interviews for feedback, and focus group discussions to explore perceptions of the strategy and barriers to its application amongst MPS participants., Results: The strategy's success is affected by factors such as cultural adaptation, institutional credibility and public trust, data protection, and challenges with mobile phone technology. These factors are relevant to individuals' willingness to facilitate RDS efforts targeting hard-to-reach people. Recruitment strategies are valuable in part because hard-to-reach populations are often most accessible through their contacts within their social network who can serve as trust liaisons and drive engagement., Conclusions: These findings may inform future studies where similar interventions are being considered to improve access to mobile phone-based data collection amongst hard-to-reach groups.

Background: Integrated vaccine delivery - the linkage of routine vaccination with provision of other essential health services - is a hallmark of robust primary care systems that has been linked to equitable improvements in population health outcomes., Methods: We gathered longitudinal data relating to routine immunization coverage and vaccination equity in 78 low- and middle-income countries that have ever received support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, using multiple imputation to handle missing values. We then estimated several group-based trajectory models to describe the relationship between integrated vaccine delivery and vaccination equity in these countries. Finally, we used multinomial logistic regression to identify predictors of group membership., Results: We identified five distinct trajectories of geographic vaccination equity across both the imputed and non-imputed datasets, along with two and four trajectories of socioeconomic vaccination equity in the imputed and non-imputed datasets, respectively. Integration was associated with reductions in the slope index of inequality of measles vaccination in the countries analyzed. Integration was also associated with an increase in the percentage of districts reporting high measles vaccination coverage., Conclusions: Integrated vaccine delivery is most strongly associated with improvements in vaccination equity in settings with high baseline levels of inequity. Continued scholarship is needed to further characterize the relationship between integration and health equity, as well as to improve measurement of vaccination coverage and integration., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: COVID-19 vaccination is a global priority. Latin American countries have some of the highest COVID-19 death rates worldwide with vaccination hampered by a variety of reasons, including mis- and disinformation, vaccine hesitancy, and vaccine supply constraints. Addressing vaccine hesitancy through effective messages has been found to help increase vaccine uptake. Participatory processes could be used to co-design health messages for this purpose., Objective: This article describes the methodology used to co-design evidence-based audio messages to be deployed in a cohort of individuals through an interactive voice response (IVR) mobile phone survey intervention, aimed towards increasing vaccination uptake in an adult population in Colombia., Methods: Participants of the COVID-19 vaccination message co-design process included a sample of the general population of the country, representatives of the funder organisation, and research team members. The co-design process consisted of four phases: (1) formative quantitative and qualitative research, (2) message drafting based on the results of the formative research, (3) message content evaluation, and (4) evaluation of the voices to deliver the audio messages; and was informed by reflexive meetings., Results: Three categories of evidence-based audio messages were co-designed, each corresponding to an arm of the mHealth intervention: (1) factual messages, (2) narrative messages, and (3) mixed messages. An additional fourth arm with no message was proposed for control. The iterative co-design process ended with a total of 14 audio messages recorded to be deployed via the intervention., Conclusions: Co-developing health messages in response to health emergencies is possible. Adopting more context-relevant, participatory, people-centred, and reflexive multidisciplinary approaches could help develop solutions that are more responsive to the needs of populations and public health priorities. Investing resources in message co-design is deemed to have a greater potential for influencing behaviours and improving health outcomes.

Objectives: As mobile phone ownership becomes more widespread in low-income and middle-income countries, mobile phone surveys (MPSs) present an opportunity to collect data on health more cost-effectively. However, selectivity and coverage biases in MPS are concerns, and there is limited information about the population-level representativeness of these surveys compared with household surveys. This study aims at comparing the sociodemographic characteristics of the respondents of an MPS on non-communicable disease risk factors to a household survey in Colombia., Design: Cross-sectional study. We used a random digit dialling method to select the samples for calling mobile phone numbers. The survey was conducted using two modalities: computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATIs) and interactive voice response (IVR). The participants were assigned randomly to one of the survey modalities based on a targeted sampling quota stratified by age and sex. The Quality-of-Life Survey (ECV), a nationally representative survey conducted in the same year of the MPS, was used as a reference to compare the sample distributions by sociodemographic characteristics of the MPS data. Univariate and bivariate analyses were performed to evaluate the population representativeness between the ECV and the MPSs., Setting: The study was conducted in Colombia in 2021., Participants: Population at least 18 years old with a mobile phone., Results: We completed 1926 and 2983 interviews for CATI and IVR, respectively. We found that the MPS data have a similar (within 10% points) age-sex data distribution compared with the ECV dataset for some subpopulations, mainly for young populations, people with none/primary and secondary education levels, and people who live in urban and rural areas., Conclusions: This study shows that MPS could collect similar data to household surveys in terms of age, sex, high school education level and geographical area for some population categories. Strategies are needed to improve representativeness of the under-represented groups., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Introduction: Automated mobile phone surveys (MPS) can be used to collect public health data of various types to inform health policy and programs globally. One challenge in administering MPS is identification of an appropriate and effective participant consent process. This study investigated the impact of different survey consent approaches on participant disposition (response characteristics and understanding of the purpose of the survey) within the context of an MPS that measured noncommunicable disease (NCD) risk factors across Colombia and Uganda., Methods: Participants were randomized to one of five consent approaches, with consent modules varying by the consent disclosure and mode of authorization. The control arm consisted of a standard consent disclosure and a combined opt-in/opt-out mode of authorization. The other four arms consist of a modified consent disclosure and one of four different forms of authorization (i.e., opt-in, opt-out, combined opt-in/opt-out, or implied). Data related to respondent disposition and respondent understanding of the survey purpose were analyzed., Results: Among 1889 completed surveys in Colombia, differences in contact, response, refusal, and cooperation rates by study arms were found. About 68% of respondents correctly identified the survey purpose, with no significant difference by study arm. Participants reporting higher levels of education and urban residency were more likely to identify the purpose correctly. Participants were also more likely to accurately identify the survey purpose after completing several survey modules, compared to immediately following the consent disclosure (78.8% vs 54.2% correct, p<0.001). In Uganda, 1890 completed surveys were collected. Though there were differences in contact, refusal, and cooperation rates by study arm, response rates were similar across arms. About 37% of respondents identified the survey purpose correctly, with no difference by arm. Those with higher levels of education and who completed the survey in English were able to more accurately identify the survey purpose. Again, participants were more likely to accurately identify the purpose of the survey after completing several NCD modules, compared to immediately following the consent module (42.0% vs 32.2% correct, p = 0.013)., Conclusion: This study contributes to the limited available evidence regarding consent procedures for automated MPS. Future studies should develop and trial additional interventions to enhance consent for automated public health surveys, and measure other dimensions of participant engagement and understanding., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2022 Ali et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Global road mortality is a leading cause of death in many low-income and middle-income countries. Data to support priority setting under current resource constraints are urgently needed to achieve Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.6. This Series paper estimates the potential number of lives saved if each country implemented interventions to address risk factors for road injuries. We did a systematic review of all available evidence-based, preventive interventions for mortality reduction that targeted the four main risk factors for road injuries (ie, speeding, drink driving, helmet use, and use of seatbelt or child restraint). We used literature review variables and considered three key country-level variables (gross domestic product per capita, population density, and government effectiveness) to generate country-specific estimates on the potential annual attributable number of lives that would be saved by interventions focusing on these four risk factors in 185 countries. Our results suggest that the implementation of evidence-based road safety interventions that target the four main road safety risk factors could prevent between 25% and 40% of all fatal road injuries worldwide. Interventions addressing speed could save about 347 258 lives globally per year, and at least 16 304 lives would be saved through drink driving interventions. The implementation of seatbelt interventions could save about 121 083 lives, and 51 698 lives could be saved by helmet interventions. We identify country-specific estimates of the potential number of lives saved that would be attributable to these interventions. Our results show the potential effectiveness of the implementation and scaling of these interventions. This paper presents key evidence for priority setting on road safety interventions and shows a path for reaching SDG 3.6., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: Road traffic injuries are the leading cause of death in children over age five. Most of these deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries. Vulnerable road users, such as motorcyclists and their passengers, are at higher risk. Helmets have significantly decreased morbidity and mortality for motorcyclists; however, they are often unused. The second phase of the Bloomberg Philanthropies Initiative for Global Road Safety was launched in 2015 to improve road safety in 10 cities. This study focuses on child passenger helmet use data from that study to understand the prevalence of helmet use and factors that are associated with helmet use., Methods: The 10 cities selected were Accra, Addis Ababa, Bandung, Bangkok, Bogota, Fortaleza, Ho Chi Minh City, Mumbai, Sao Paulo, and Shanghai. Eight rounds of roadside observational data were collected from February 2015 to April 2019. Observers noted correct child motorcycle passenger helmet use and other site observations including weather patterns, traffic volume, and road surface conditions. A multivariable Poisson regression model was used to examine correct helmet use trends over time. A multivariable logistic regression model was fitted for correct child passenger helmet use in all cities controlling for weather, observation time, number of passengers, and driver's correct helmet use., Results: This dataset contained 99,846 motorcycle child passenger observations across the 10 cities. The highest prevalence of correct child passenger helmet use was in Sao Paulo at 97.33%. Six cities had under 25% correct helmet use for child passengers. Examining helmet use over time, only five cities had a significant increase, four cities had no change, and Ho Chi Minh City demonstrated a decrease. In the multivariable regression model, child passengers had higher odds of wearing helmets in adverse weather conditions, early mornings, if the driver wore a helmet, and if there were fewer passengers., Conclusions: The prevalence of correct child passenger helmet utilization shows large variation globally and is concerningly low overall. Enhanced enforcement in combination with media campaigns may have contributed to increasing helmet use prevalence over time. Further research is needed to understand reasons for low child passenger helmet use in most cities., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest None to declare., (Copyright © 2022. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Background: The C-Score, which is an individual health score, is based on a predictive model validated in the UK and US populations. It was designed to serve as an individualized point-in-time health assessment tool that could be integrated into clinical counseling or consumer-facing digital health tools to encourage lifestyle modifications that reduce the risk of premature death., Objective: Our study aimed to conduct an external validation of the C-Score in the US population and expand the original score to improve its predictive capabilities in the US population. The C-Score is intended for mobile health apps on wearable devices., Methods: We conducted a literature review to identify relevant variables that were missing in the original C-Score. Subsequently, we used data from the 2005 to 2014 US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES; N=21,015) to test the capacity of the model to predict all-cause mortality. We used NHANES III data from 1988 to 1994 (N=1440) to conduct an external validation of the test. Only participants with complete data were included in this study. Discrimination and calibration tests were conducted to assess the operational characteristics of the adapted C-Score from receiver operating curves and a design-based goodness-of-fit test., Results: Higher C-Scores were associated with reduced odds of all-cause mortality (odds ratio 0.96, P<.001). We found a good fit of the C-Score for all-cause mortality with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.72. Among participants aged between 40 and 69 years, C-Score models had a good fit for all-cause mortality and an AUC >0.72. A sensitivity analysis using NHANES III data (1988-1994) was performed, yielding similar results. The inclusion of sociodemographic and clinical variables in the basic C-Score increased the AUCs from 0.72 (95% CI 0.71-0.73) to 0.87 (95% CI 0.85-0.88)., Conclusions: Our study shows that this digital biomarker, the C-Score, has good capabilities to predict all-cause mortality in the general US population. An expanded health score can predict 87% of the mortality in the US population. This model can be used as an instrument to assess individual mortality risk and as a counseling tool to motivate behavior changes and lifestyle modifications., (©Shatha Elnakib, Andres I Vecino-Ortiz, Dustin G Gibson, Smisha Agarwal, Antonio J Trujillo, Yifan Zhu, Alain B Labrique. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (https://www.jmir.org), 14.06.2022.)

Evidence-based interventions recommended in the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control of the World Health Organization (WHO FCTC) are subject to implementation factors that might affect their actual effectiveness. The Colombian law enacting key commitments from WHO's FCTC was signed in 2009. This study aims at evaluating the potential impact of the enactment and implementation of these WHO FCTC on four outcomes for tobacco consumption (last-year cigarette smoking prevalence, prevalence of heavy smokers, prevalence of lower-intensity smokers and monthly smoking incidence). We used data from the National Psychoactive Substances Consumption Survey (NPSCS) in 2008 (n = 29 164) and 2013 (n = 32 605), and assessed changes in these four outcomes WHO FCTC using propensity score matching (PSM). Propensity scores were obtained using key socio-demographic variables and by matching through a 'Kernel' estimation. Matching quality tests were performed. The common support for both survey samples was 60 793. Sub-analyses were conducted using a governance index to assess the effect of heterogeneous governance levels, proxying implementation, over the country. We found that cigarette year-prevalence and cigarette month-incidence decreased after matching around 8 and 1.2 percentage points between 2008 and 2013, respectively. Consumption might have shifted, at least partially, from heavy smoking towards lower-intensity smoking. Departments with a higher governance index showed larger reductions of tobacco use, possibly associated to a stronger WHO FCTC implementation. This study highlights the impact that the WHO FCTC had on tobacco consumption in a middle-income country and shows the importance of governance strength as a mediating mechanism for WHO FCTC impact. These results advance current knowledge on the effectiveness of WHO FCTC and shed light on the relevance of governance as a key factor in the WHO FCTC implementation., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, Test-Trace-Isolate (TTI) programs have been recommended as a risk mitigation strategy. However, many governments have hesitated to implement them due to their costs. This study aims to estimate the cost-effectiveness of implementing a national TTI program to reduce the number of severe and fatal cases of COVID-19 in Colombia., Methods: We developed a Markov simulation model of COVID-19 infection combined with a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered structure. We estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness of a comprehensive TTI strategy compared to no intervention over a one-year horizon, from both the health system and the societal perspective. Hospitalization and mortality rates were retrieved from Colombian surveillance data. We included program costs of TTI intervention, health services utilization, PCR diagnosis test, productivity loss, and government social program costs. We used the number of deaths and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) as health outcomes. Sensitivity analyses were performed., Findings: Compared with no intervention, the TTI strategy reduces COVID-19 mortality by 67%. In addition, the program saves an average of $1,045 and $850 per case when observed from the social and the health system perspective, respectively. These savings are equivalent to two times the current health expenditures in Colombia per year., Interpretation: The TTI program is a highly cost-effective public health intervention to reduce the burden of COVID-19 in Colombia. TTI programs depend on their successful and speedy implementation., Funding: This study was supported by the Colombian Ministry of Health through award number PUJ-04519-20 received by EPQ AVO and SDS declined to receive any funding support for this study. The contents are the responsibility of all the individual authors., Competing Interests: Three of the authors (JFN, MRB, and FR) are direct employees of the funding institution (Colombian Ministry of Health). The other authors do not present any conflict of interest., (© 2021 The Author(s).)

Objective: This research was conducted to explore the nature of multisectoral action for road safety in Brazil. In an effort to improve the implementation of complex interventions, we sought to characterize the relationships and exchange patterns within a network tied to the Bloomberg Initiative for Global Road Safety (BIGRS) in Fortaleza and São Paulo, Brazil., Methods: We conducted an organizational social network analysis based on in-person surveys and key informant interviews with 57 individuals across the two cities from August to October 2019. Survey data included network dimensions such as the frequency of interaction, perceived value of interaction, resource sharing, coordination, data/research sharing, practical guidance, and access to decision makers. We coded and analyzed interview transcripts according to network properties of structure, governance, development, and outcomes, as well as in situ codes that emerged from the data., Results: We found differences in all network properties between road safety networks in Fortaleza and São Paulo. Fortaleza was characterized by a centralized, dense, and relatively new network, whereas São Paulo was larger, diffuse, diverse, and established. Government agencies were central in both networks, but an international nongovernmental organization (NGO) was highly central in Fortaleza and a local NGO was highly central in São Paulo. Few actors on the periphery of both networks were connected to one another or decision makers, which revealed sectors to engage for enhancing network connectivity. Finally, politics were understood to be key in facilitating network activity, data (especially their integration and transparency) were considered to be influential for decision making, and strategic planning was acknowledged as a central concern for network expansion and fluidity., Conclusions: Multisectoral action for road safety can be reinforced by carefully disentangling the social dynamics of implementation. Organizational social network analysis, supplemented with interview data, can provide a deeper explanation for how members behave and understand their work. In this way, research can help build a collective identity and impetus to action on road safety, contributing to a healthier and more equitable world.

Background: Healthcare workers are at a higher risk of COVID-19 infection during care encounters compared to the general population. Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) have been shown to protect COVID-19 among healthcare workers, however, Kenya has faced PPE shortages that can adequately protect all healthcare workers. We, therefore, examined the health and economic consequences of investing in PPE for healthcare workers in Kenya., Methods: We conducted a cost-effectiveness and return on investment (ROI) analysis using a decision-analytic model following the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) guidelines. We examined two outcomes: 1) the incremental cost per healthcare worker death averted, and 2) the incremental cost per healthcare worker COVID-19 case averted. We performed a multivariate sensitivity analysis using 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations., Results: Kenya would need to invest $3.12 million (95% CI: 2.65-3.59) to adequately protect healthcare workers against COVID-19. This investment would avert 416 (IQR: 330-517) and 30,041 (IQR: 7243 - 102,480) healthcare worker deaths and COVID-19 cases respectively. Additionally, such an investment would result in a healthcare system ROI of $170.64 million (IQR: 138-209) - equivalent to an 11.04 times return., Conclusion: Despite other nationwide COVID-19 prevention measures such as social distancing, over 70% of healthcare workers will still be infected if the availability of PPE remains scarce. As part of the COVID-19 response strategy, the government should consider adequate investment in PPE for all healthcare workers in the country as it provides a large return on investment and it is value for money., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Background: This is the first study to examine the costs of conducting a mobile phone survey (MPS) through interactive voice response (IVR) to collect information on risk factors for noncommunicable diseases (NCD) in three low- and middle-income countries (LMIC); Bangladesh, Colombia, and Uganda., Methods: This is a micro-costing study conducted from the perspective of the payer/funder with a 1-year horizon. The study evaluates the fixed costs and variable costs of implementing one nationally representative MPS for NCD risk factors of the adult population. In this costing study, we estimated the sample size of calls required to achieve a population-representative survey and associated incentives. Cost inputs were obtained from direct economic costs incurred by a central study team, from country-specific collaborators, and from platform developers who participated in the deployment of these MPS during 2017. Costs were reported in US dollars (USD). A sensitivity analysis was conducted assessing different scenarios of pricing and incentive strategies. Also, costs were calculated for a survey deployed targeting only adults younger than 45 years., Results: We estimated the fixed costs ranging between $47,000 USD and $74,000 USD. Variable costs were found to be between $32,000 USD and $129,000 USD per nationally representative survey. The main cost driver was the number of calls required to meet the sample size, and its variability largely depends on the extent of mobile phone coverage and access in the country. Therefore, a larger number of calls were estimated to survey specific harder-to-reach sub-populations., Conclusion: Mobile phone surveys have the potential to be a relatively less expensive and timely method of collecting survey information than face-to-face surveys, allowing decision-makers to deploy survey-based monitoring or evaluation programs more frequently than it would be possible having only face-to-face contact. The main driver of variable costs is survey time, and most of the variability across countries is attributable to the sampling differences associated to reaching out to population subgroups with low mobile phone ownership or access.

Background: Contact tracing is a crucial part of the public health surveillance toolkit. However, it is labor-intensive and costly to carry it out. Some countries have faced challenges implementing contact tracing, and no impact evaluations using empirical data have assessed its impact on COVID-19 mortality. This study assesses the impact of contact tracing in a middle-income country, providing data to support the expansion and optimization of contact tracing strategies to improve infection control., Methods: We obtained publicly available data on all confirmed COVID-19 cases in Colombia between March 2 and June 16, 2020. (N = 54,931 cases over 135 days of observation). As suggested by WHO guidelines, we proxied contact tracing performance as the proportion of cases identified through contact tracing out of all cases identified. We calculated the daily proportion of cases identified through contact tracing across 37 geographical units (32 departments and five districts). Further, we used a sequential log-log fixed-effects model to estimate the 21-days, 28-days, 42-days, and 56-days lagged impact of the proportion of cases identified through contact tracing on daily COVID-19 mortality. Both the proportion of cases identified through contact tracing and the daily number of COVID-19 deaths are smoothed using 7-day moving averages. Models control for the prevalence of active cases, second-degree polynomials, and mobility indices. Robustness checks to include supply-side variables were performed., Results: We found that a 10 percent increase in the proportion of cases identified through contact tracing is related to COVID-19 mortality reductions between 0.8% and 3.4%. Our models explain between 47%-70% of the variance in mortality. Results are robust to changes of specification and inclusion of supply-side variables., Conclusion: Contact tracing is instrumental in containing infectious diseases. Its prioritization as a surveillance strategy will substantially impact reducing deaths while minimizing the impact on the fragile economic systems of lower and middle-income countries. This study provides lessons for other LMIC., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Public health surveys deployed through automated mobile phone calls raise a set of ethical challenges, including succinctly communicating information necessary to obtain respondent informed consent. This study aimed to capture the perspectives of key stakeholders, both experts and community members, on consent processes and preferences for participation in automated mobile phone surveys (MPS) of non-communicable disease risk factors in Colombia. We conducted semi-structured interviews with ethics and digital health experts and focus group discussions with community representatives. There was meaningful disagreement within both groups regarding the necessity of consent, when the purpose of a survey is to contribute to the formulation of public policies. Respondents who favored consent emphasized that consent communications ought to promote understanding and voluntariness, and implicitly suggested that information disclosure conform to a reasonable person standard. Given the automated and unsolicited nature of the phone calls and concerns regarding fraud, trust building was emphasized as important, especially for national MPS deployment. Community sensitization campaigns that provide relevant contextual information (such as the name of the administering institution) were thought to support trust-building. Additional ways to achieve the goals of consent while building trust in automated MPS for disease surveillance should be evaluated in order to inform ethical and effective practice.

Background: Data collection on noncommunicable disease (NCD) behavioral risk factors has traditionally been carried out through face-to-face surveys. However, its high costs and logistical difficulties can lead to lack of timely statistics for planning, particularly in low and middle-income countries. Mobile phone surveys (MPS) have the potential to fill these gaps., Objective: This study explores perceptions, feasibility and strategies to increase the acceptability and response rate of health surveys administered through MPS using interactive voice response in Colombia., Method: A sequential multimodal exploratory design was used. We conducted key informant interviews (KII) with stakeholders from government and academia; focus group discussions (FGDs) and user-group tests (UGTs) with young adults and elderly people living in rural and urban settings (men and women). The KII and FGDs explored perceptions of using mobile phones for NCD surveys. In the UGTs, participants were administered an IVR survey, and they provided feedback on its usability and potential improvement., Results: Between February and November 2017, we conducted 7 KII, 6 FGDs (n = 54) and 4 UGTs (n = 34). Most participants consider MPS is a novel way to explore risk factors in NCDs. They also recognize challenges for their implementation including security issues, technological literacy and telecommunications coverage, especially in rural areas. It was recommended to promote the survey using mass media before its deployment and stressing its objectives, responsible institution and data privacy safeguards. The preferences in the survey administration relate to factors such as skills in the use of mobile phones, age, availability of time and educational level. The participants recommend questionnaires shorter than 10 minutes., Conclusions: The possibility of obtaining data through MPS at a population level represents an opportunity to improve the availability of risk-factor data. Steps towards increasing the acceptability and overcoming technological and methodological challenges need to be taken.

Introduction: High blood pressure is a public health problem worldwide. In Colombia, its prevalence is 25% with a high mortality rate. The psychosocial factors affecting pharmacological adherence among patients have not been sufficiently studied and despite international evidence on their impact, in Colombia, there is a paucity of research on the role of chronic stress in the relationship between socioeconomic status and pharmacological adherence. Objective: To examine the role of chronic stress in the relationship between socioeconomic status and pharmacological adherence in hypertensive patients aged 45 to 70 years old in three Colombian cities between 2015 and 2016. Materials and methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study in a population of hypertensive patients. Data for this study came from the first wave of longitudinal study aimed at examining social factors associated with the control of hypertension in Bogotá, Medellín, and Quibdó. Patients with hypertension were selected randomly from a sample of those participating in the hypertension control program De todo corazón. For the statistical analysis of the data, we used factorial analysis and multivariate regressions. Results: We found a positive association between socioeconomic status and the degree of pharmacological adherence and a negative one with chronic stress. Besides, evidence was found that stress has a negative association with the degree of adherence. Conclusions: The results suggest that stress is not a likely mediator between socioeconomic status and the pharmacological adherence of hypertensive patients in Colombia. Additional studies are required to confirm these relationships with a larger sample.

Objective: To assess the effect of a permanent gun-carrying restriction on gun-related mortality in Colombia between 2008 and 2014, and determine differences in the effect of the restriction by place of death and sex., Methods: In 2012, Bogotá and Medellín introduced a permanent gun-carrying restriction. We compared gun-related mortality rates in these cities (intervention cities) with the rates in all other Colombian cities with more than 500 000 inhabitants (control cities). We used data from the Colombian National Department of Statistics to calculate monthly gun-related mortality rates between 2008 and 2014 for intervention and control cities. We used a differences-in-differences method with fixed effects to assess differences in gun-related mortality in intervention and control cities before and after the introduction of the gun-carrying restriction. We stratified effects by place of death (public area or residence) and sex. We made robustness checks to test the assumptions of the models., Findings: Gun-related deaths in the control and intervention cities decreased between 2008 and 2014; however, the decrease was greater in the intervention cities (from 20.29 to 14.93 per 100 000 population; 26.4%) than in the control cities (from 37.88 to 34.56 per 100 000 population; 8.8%). The restriction led to a 22.3% reduction in the monthly gun-related mortality rate in Bogotá and Medellín. The reduction was greater in public areas and for males. Robustness checks supported the assumptions of the models., Conclusion: The permanent restriction on carrying guns reduced gun-related deaths. This policy could be used to reduce gun-related injuries in urban centres of other countries with large numbers of gun-related deaths., ((c) 2020 The authors; licensee World Health Organization.)

Objectives: To evaluate the prevalence of drink driving and speeding during 2015-2018 in Sao Paulo, Brazil., Design: Cross-sectional observational study., Setting: Roads representing the five main regions of the city of Sao Paulo in Brazil, one of the world's largest urban areas., Participants: Drivers (N=10 294) stopped at routine roadside breath testing checkpoints and those driving in selected roads for speeding measurement (N=414 664)., Primary and Secondary Outcome Measures: Microwave radar guns were used to measure the speed of vehicles, while the prevalence of drivers under the influence of alcohol was observed in police checkpoints. Data were collected during three consecutive years (2016-2018) following a baseline study established in 2015 using a city-level representative sample of observational data representing all days of the week., Results: Alcohol-related fatalities kept at a constantly high percentage, with 39% of road traffic deaths involving alcohol in 2016. Drivers testing above the legal breath alcohol concentration limit showed a decreasing trend, from 4.1% (95% CI 2.9% to 5.5%) at baseline to 0.6% (95% CI 0.2% to 1.2%) in the end of 2018 (p<0.001); however, more than half of drivers refused breath tests at checkpoints despite steep legal penalties. The prevalence of speeding among all vehicles decreased from 8.1% (95% CI 7.9% to 8.2%) to 4.9% (95% CI 4.7% to 5.1%) by the end of 2016 (p<0.001), but then increased again to 13.5% (95% CI 13.2% to 13.9%) at the end of the study period (p<0.001)., Conclusions: Drink driving rates have reduced, likely due to an increase in drivers refusing breath alcohol tests, while speeding rates have increased significantly by the end of the study period, particularly among motorcycles. Future strategies aiming at reducing road traffic injuries in the major Brazilian city should tailor drink driving and speeding enforcement based on the new evidence provided here., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: In Colombia, smoking is the second leading modifiable risk factor for premature mortality. In December 2016, Colombia passed a major tax increase on tobacco products in an effort to decrease smoking and improve population health. While tobacco taxes are known to be highly effective in reducing the prevalence of smoking, they are often criticised as being regressive in consumption. This analysis attempts to assess the distributional impact (across socioeconomic groups) of the new tax on selected health and financial outcomes., Methods: This study builds on extended cost-effectiveness analysis methods to study the new tobacco tax in Colombia, and estimates, over a time period of 20 years and across income quintiles of the current urban population (80% of the country population), the years of life gained with smoking cessation and the increased tax revenues, all associated with a 70% relative price increase of the pack of cigarettes. Where possible, we use parameters that vary by income quintile, including price elasticity of demand for cigarettes (average of -0.44 estimated from household survey data)., Findings: Over 20 years, the tax increase would lead to an estimated 191 000 years of life gained among Colombia's current urban population, with the largest gains among the bottom two income quintiles. The additional annual tax revenues raised would amount to about 2%-4% of Colombia's annual government health expenditure, with the poorest quintiles bearing the smallest tax burden increase., Conclusions: The tobacco tax increase passed by Colombia has substantial implications for the country's population health and financial well-being, with large benefits likely to accrue to the two poorest quintiles of the population., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Patients with respiratory infections are often managed presumptively until confirmation of infection status. We assessed the impact of introducing the Enigma® MiniLab™ FluAB-RSV point-of-care test (POCT) on patients admitted with a suspected respiratory virus driven illness in an acute pediatric ward. This utilized a before and after design (respiratory viral seasons 2013/14 versus 2014/15). Following POCT implementation, oseltamivir prescribing increased in patients with influenza (OR = 12.7, P = 0.05, 95% CI [1.0, 153.8]). A reduction in the average reimbursement charges without a change in the length of stay was observed. Modeling suggested that laboratory test cost savings could be achieved if the POCT cost £30 and was used for screening, followed by the respiratory viral panel for RSV and influenza negative patients. A rapid POCT for influenza A/B and RSV infections in pediatric inpatients may improve oseltamivir prescribing, strengthen antimicrobial stewardship, reduce reimbursement charges and decrease laboratory costs., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Colombia has a high prevalence of overweight (56%) and obesity (19%) among adults and is experiencing a growing trend in the prevalence of associated chronic conditions. Evidence suggests that sugar sweetened beverages (SSB) are associated to overweight/obesity, and that taxes on these beverages could reduce their associated health consequences. This paper assesses the potential effect of different levels of a SSB tax in Colombia on overweight and obesity prevalence. Using peer-reviewed local data on own-price elasticity of SSB, we applied a comparative risk assessment strategy to simulate the effect of the SSB tax on a nationally representative nutritional survey with 7140 adults in 2010 (ENSIN, 2010). Our results varied depending on the tax scenario, pass-through assumption and household socio economic strata (SES). We found that among individuals belonging to lower SES households, the SSB tax would reduce overweight and obesity between 1.5-4.9 and 1.1-2.4 percentage points (p < 0.05), respectively. Among individuals belonging to higher SES households, we found no statistically significant effects on obesity, and a reduction on overweight prevalence between 2.9 and 3.9 percentage points (p < 0.05). In the most conservative scenario (40% pass-through), a tax rate of at least 75 cents of Colombian peso (0.75 COP) per milliliter (24% of the average price) is needed to have statistically significant effects on both overweight and obesity prevalence among lower SES households. The results of this study suggest that a SSB tax could reduce the overweight and obesity prevalence in Colombia, especially among lower SES households. This study shows that SSB taxes have a particularly beneficial effect in the most vulnerable population. Additional social and individual benefits, or individual costs arising from the tax are not assessed in this research, implying that even larger health gains could be observed., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Between 1990 and 2015, the global injury mortality declined, but in countries where the poorest billion live, injuries are becoming an increasingly prevalent cause of death. The vulnerability of this population requires immediate attention from policy makers to implement effective interventions that lessen the burden of injuries in these countries. Our aim was two-fold; first, to review all the evidence on effective interventions for the five main types of unintentional injury; and second, to estimate the potential number of lives saved by effective injury interventions among the poorest billion., Methods: For our systematic review we used references in the Disability Control Priorities third edition, and searched PubMed and the Cochrane database for papers published until Sept 10, 2016, using a comprehensive search strategy to find interventions for the five major causes of unintentional injuries: road traffic crashes, falls, drowning, burns, and poisoning. Studies were included if they presented evidence with significant effects sizes for any outcome; no inclusions or exclusions made on the basis of where the study was carried out (ie, low-income, middle-income, or high-income country). Then we used data from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study and a Monte Carlo simulation technique to estimate the potential annual attributable number of lives saved among the poorest billion by these evidence-based injury interventions. We estimated results for 84 countries where the poorest billion live., Findings: From the 513 papers identified, 47 were eligible for inclusion. We identified 11 interventions that had an effect on injury mortality. For road traffic deaths, the most successful interventions in preventing deaths are speed enforcement (>80 000 lives saved per year) and drink-driving enforcement (>60 000 lives saved per year). Interventions potentially most effective in preventing deaths from drowning are formal swimming lessons for children younger than 14 years (>25 000 lives saved per year) and the use of crèches to supervise younger children (younger than 5 years; >10 000 lives saved per year). We did not find sufficient evidence on interventions for other causes of unintentional injuries (poisoning, burns, and falls) to run similar simulations., Interpretation: Based on the little available evidence, key interventions have been identified to prevent lives lost from unintentional injuries among the poorest billion. This Article provides guidance to national authorities on evidence-based priority interventions that can reduce the burden of injuries among the most vulnerable members of the population. We also identify an important gap in knowledge on the effectiveness and the mortality impacts of injury interventions., Funding: Partly supported by the Fogarty International Center of the US National Institutes of Health (Chronic Consequences of Trauma, Injuries, Disability Across the Lifespan: Uganda; #D43TW009284)., (Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: To estimate productivity losses due to absenteeism and presenteeism and their determinants in patients with depression from five Colombian cities., Methods: We used data from a multicenter, mixed-methods study of adult patients diagnosed with major depressive disorder or double depression (major depressive disorder plus dysthymia) during 2010. The World Health Organization's Health and Work Performance Questionnaire was used to assess absenteeism and presenteeism. We explored the determinants of productivity losses using a two-part model. We also used a costing model to calculate the corresponding monetary losses., Results: We analyzed data from 107 patients employed in the last 4 weeks. Absenteeism was reported by 70% of patients; presenteeism was reported by all but one. Half of the patients reported a level of performance at work at least 50% below usual. Average number of hours per month lost to absenteeism and presenteeism was 43 and 51, respectively. The probability of any absenteeism was 17 percentage points lower in patients rating their mental health favorably compared with those rating it poorly (standard error [SE] 0.09; P < 0.10) and 19 percentage points higher in patients with at least one comorbidity compared with patients with none (SE 0.10; P < 0.10). All other covariates showed no significant associations on hours lost to absenteeism. Patients with favorable mental health self-ratings had 16.4 fewer hours per month of presenteeism compared with those with poor self-ratings (SE 4.52; P < 0.01). The 2015 monetary value of productivity losses amounted to US $840 million., Conclusions: This study in a middle-income country confirms the high economic burden of depression. Health policies and workplace interventions ensuring adequate diagnosis and treatment of depression are recommended., (Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Background: Opioid use is rising in the US and may cause special problems in workers compensation cases, including addiction and preventing a return to work after an injury., Objective: This study evaluates a physician-level intervention to curb opioid usage. An insurer identified patients with out-of-guideline opioid utilization and called the prescribing physician to discuss the patient's treatment protocol., Research Design: This study uses a differences-in-differences study design with a propensity-score-matched control group. Medical and pharmaceutical claims data from 2005 to 2011 were used for analyses., Results: Following the intervention, the use of opioids increased for the intervention group and there is little impact on medical spending., Conclusions: Counseling physicians about patients with high opioid utilization may focus more attention on their care, but did not impact short-term outcomes. More robust interventions may be needed to manage opioid use., Perspective: While the increasing use of opioids is of growing concern around the world, curbing the utilization of these powerfully addictive narcotics has proved elusive. This study examines a prescribing guidelines intervention designed to reduce the prescription of opioids following an injury. The study finds that there was little change in the opioid utilization after the intervention, suggesting interventions along other parts of the prescribing pathway may be needed., (© 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

Comparability of population surveys across countries is key to appraising trends in population health. Achieving this requires deep understanding of the methods used in these surveys to examine the extent to which the measurements are comparable. In this study, we obtained detailed protocols of 8 nationally representative surveys from 2007-2013 from Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, the United Kingdom (England and Scotland), and the United States-countries that that differ in economic and inequity indicators. Data were collected on sampling frame, sample selection procedures, recruitment, data collection methods, content of interview and examination modules, and measurement protocols. We also assessed their adherence to the World Health Organization's "STEPwise Approach to Surveillance" framework for population health surveys. The surveys, which included half a million participants, were highly comparable on sampling methodology, survey questions, and anthropometric measurements. Heterogeneity was found for physical activity questionnaires and biological samples collection. The common age range included by the surveys was adults aged 18-64 years. The methods used in these surveys were similar enough to enable comparative analyses of the data across the 7 countries. This comparability is crucial in assessing and comparing national and subgroup population health, and to assisting the transfer of research and policy knowledge across countries., (© The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objectives: To assess the issue of hospital variations in Colombia and to contribute to the methodology on health care variations by using a model that clusters the variance between hospitals while accounting for individual-level reimbursement rates and objective health-status variables., Methods: We used data on all births (N = 11,954) taking place in a contributory-regimen insurer network in Colombia during 2007. A multilevel logistic regression model was used to account for the share of unexplained variance between hospitals. In addition, an alternative variance decomposition specification was further carried out to measure the proportion of such unexplained variance due to the region effect., Results: Hospitals account for 20% of the variation in performing cesarean sections, whereas region explains only one-third of such variance. Variables accounting for preferences on the demand side as well as reimbursement rates are found to predict the probability of performing cesarean sections., Conclusions: Hospital variations explain large variances within a single-payer's network. Because this insurer company is highly regarded in terms of performance and finance, these results might provide a lower bound for the scale of hospital variation in the Colombian health care market. Such lower bound provides guidance on the relevance of this issue for Colombia. Some factors such as demand-side preferences and physician reimbursement rates increase variations in health care even within a single-payer network. This is a source of inefficiencies, threatening the quality of health care and financial sustainability. The proposed methodology should be considered in further research on health care variations., (Copyright © 2015 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Road injuries are an important cause of global mortality especially in low- and middle-income countries. While these countries undergo major urban transformations, an integral part of their development has often been the implementation of mass transportation systems, including Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems. However, the net effect of BRT systems on road safety is still unclear, and while there is reason to believe that BRT systems improve safety, very few available empirical studies have tested this hypothesis using observational data. Furthermore, the existing evidence is mixed and sparse. This paper reviews the available literature on the links of BRT systems and road safety and calls for more research to strengthen the body of evidence on the effect of BRT systems on road safety  in the future.

In settings with low seatbelt use prevalence, self-reported seatbelt use estimates often lack validity, and routine observational studies are scarce. In this paper, we aim to describe the prevalence of seatbelt use and associated factors in drivers and front-seat passengers across eight sites in four countries (Egypt, Mexico, Russia, Turkey) using observational studies as well as to produce estimates of country-level and site-level variance. As part of the Bloomberg Philanthropies Global Road Safety Program, data on driver and passenger seatbelt use across four middle-income countries was collected between October 2010 and May 2011 (n=122,931 vehicles). Logistic regression and Intraclass Correlation Coefficient analyses for sites- and country-level clustering were performed. We found high variability of seatbelt wearing rates ranging from 4 to 72% in drivers and 3-50% in front-seat passengers. Overall, average seatbelt wearing rates were low (under 60% in most sites). At the individual level, older and female drivers were more likely to wear seatbelts, as well as drivers of vehicles transiting at times of increased vehicle flow. We also found that 26-32% and 37-41% of the variance in seatbelt use among drivers and front-seat passengers respectively was explained by differences across sites and countries. Our results demonstrate that there is room for improvement on seatbelt use in middle-income countries and that standardized cross-country studies on road safety risk factors are feasible, providing valuable information for prevention and monitoring activities., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa--the countries known as BRICS--are currently undergoing a deep epidemiological transition that is mainly driven by rapid economic growth and technological change. The changes being observed in the distribution of the burden of diseases and injuries--such as recent increases in the incidence of road traffic injuries--are matters of concern. BRICS may need stronger institutional capacity to address such changes in a timely way. In this paper, we present data on road traffic injuries in BRICS and illustrate the enormous challenge that these countries currently face in reducing the incidence of such injuries. There is an urgent need to improve road safety indicators in every country constituting BRICS. It is imperative for BRICS to invest in system-wide road safety interventions and reduce the mortality and morbidity from road traffic injuries.

Background: Cost-benefit analysis is a useful tool for priority setting in road safety. The value of statistical life (VOSL) is a metric used to estimate the benefits of road interventions in cost-benefit analyses. The International Road Assessment Program (iRAP), for example, created a rule-of-thumb to calculate VOSL benefits of road infrastructure when performing cost-benefit assessments in countries where data on VOSL are sparse., Aim: To evaluate the rapid assessment metric developed by iRAP and provide suggestions for improvement in these methods., Methods: We replicated iRAP calculations in order to make a critical assessment of the sources, results and conclusions., Conclusions: We found the iRAP metric a good example for highlighting some relevant aspects that should be considered in any VOSL estimation in order to enhance its use as a guiding principle for assessing road interventions. Specifically, we recommend the explicit disclosure of the assumptions, the use of sensitivity analysis and the avoidance of omitted variables bias.

In the South American nation of Colombia, as elsewhere, patients with type 2 diabetes often avoid care that could prevent their condition from worsening. Availability of health insurance may play a role in explaining this behavior. Some patients with diabetes skip preventive measures because they have insurance and calculate that they can access curative services later in life. Insurers may limit preventive services coverage because they can't be assured of sharing in the eventual savings that emerge when a chronic condition such as diabetes is managed properly. Our analysis of a nationally representative sample of Colombians who have type 2 diabetes and who pay premiums into the country's "contributory" insurance program, found no evidence that insurance influences those individuals to avoid preventive services. The evidence is less clear for those participating in a different, fully subsidized insurance program, who-despite the availability of preventive care-are no more likely to seek preventive visits than are uninsured patients. We propose controlled experiments to identify and measure the true causal effects of insurance on prevention and, more broadly, steps to increase patients' understanding of the benefits of prevention.

In recent years, interest on researching on antenatal care issues and other health promotion and prevention interventions has increased. However, even though there is a growing interest in publishing about antenatal care use, evidence concerning which, and how socioeconomic conditions influence whether a pregnant woman demands or not antenatal consultations on the assumption that the theoretical access to this service has not entry barriers, is still limited. In order to generate this evidence, a two-stage analysis was performed with data gathered on the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) carried out by Profamilia in Colombia during 2005. The first stage was run as a logistic regression model showing the marginal effects on the probability of attending the first visit and an ordinary least squares model was performed for the second stage accounting for the absences to antenatal consultations once at least one visit was carried out. It was found that mothers living in the Pacific Ocean region as well as young mothers seem to have a lower probability of attending the first visit but these factors are not related to the number of absences to antenatal consultation once the first visit has been achieved. The effect of health insurance was surprising because of the differing effects that the health insurers showed. Some familiar and personal conditions such as willingness to have the last children and number of previous children, demonstrated to be important in the determination of demand. The effect of mother's educational attainment was proved as important whereas the father's educational achievement was not. This paper provides some elements for policy making in order to increase the demand inducement of antenatal care, as well as stimulating research on demand for specific issues on health.