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3. Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021

Author

Philip, Sjoukje Y, Kew, Sarah F, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Anslow, Faron S, Seneviratne, Sonia I, Vautard, Robert, Coumou, Dim, Ebi, Kristie L, Arrighi, Julie, Singh, Roop, van Aalst, Maarten, Marghidan, Carolina Pereira, Wehner, Michael, Yang, Wenchang, Li, Sihan, Schumacher, Dominik L, Hauser, Mathias, Bonnet, Rémy, Luu, Linh N, Lehner, Flavio, Gillett, Nathan, Tradowsky, Jordis S, Vecchi, Gabriel A, Rodell, Chris, Stull, Roland B, Howard, Rosie, and Otto, Friederike EL

Subjects
Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate-Related Exposures and Conditions, Climate Change, Climate Action, Oceanography, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, Climate change science, Geoinformatics
Abstract

Towards the end of June 2021, temperature records were broken by several degrees Celsius in several cities in the Pacific Northwest areas of the US and Canada, leading to spikes in sudden deaths and sharp increases in emergency calls and hospital visits for heat-related illnesses. Here we present a multi-model, multi-method attribution analysis to investigate the extent to which human-induced climate change has influenced the probability and intensity of extreme heat waves in this region. Based on observations, modelling and a classical statistical approach, the occurrence of a heat wave defined as the maximum daily temperature (TXx) observed in the area 45-52N, 119-123W, was found to be virtually impossible without human-caused climate change. The observed temperatures were so extreme that they lay far outside the range of historical temperature observations. This makes it hard to state with confidence how rare the event was. Using a statistical analysis that assumes that the heat wave is part of the same distribution as previous heat waves in this region led to a first-order estimation of the event frequency of the order of once in 1000 years under current climate conditions. Using this assumption and combining the results from the analysis of climate models and weather observations, we found that such a heat wave event would be at least 150 times less common without human-induced climate change. Also, this heat wave was about 2 C hotter than a 1-in-1000-year heat wave would have been in 1850-1900, when global mean temperatures were 1.2 C cooler than today. Looking into the future, in a world with 2 C of global warming (0.8 C warmer than today), a 1000-year event would be another degree hotter. Our results provide a strong warning: our rapidly warming climate is bringing us into uncharted territory with significant consequences for health, well-being and livelihoods. Adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare societies for a very different future.

Published
2022

5. Attribution of the heavy rainfall events leading to severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021

Author

Tradowsky, Jordis S., Philip, Sjoukje Y., Kreienkamp, Frank, Kew, Sarah F., Lorenz, Philip, Arrighi, Julie, Bettmann, Thomas, Caluwaerts, Steven, Chan, Steven C., De Cruz, Lesley, de Vries, Hylke, Demuth, Norbert, Ferrone, Andrew, Fischer, Erich M., Fowler, Hayley J., Goergen, Klaus, Heinrich, Dorothy, Henrichs, Yvonne, Kaspar, Frank, Lenderink, Geert, Nilson, Enno, Otto, Friederike E. L., Ragone, Francesco, Seneviratne, Sonia I., Singh, Roop K., Skålevåg, Amalie, Termonia, Piet, Thalheimer, Lisa, van Aalst, Maarten, Van den Bergh, Joris, Van de Vyver, Hans, Vannitsem, Stéphane, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Van Schaeybroeck, Bert, Vautard, Robert, Vonk, Demi, and Wanders, Niko

Published
2023
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8. Human contribution to the record-breaking June and July 2019 heatwaves in Western Europe

Author

Vautard, Robert, van Aalst, Maarten, Boucher, Olivier, Drouin, Agathe, Haustein, Karsten, Kreienkamp, Frank, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Otto, Friederike EL, Ribes, Aurlien, Robin, Yoann, Schneider, Michel, Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel, Stott, Peter, Seneviratne, Sonia I, Vogel, Martha M, and Wehner, Michael

Subjects
Climate Action, climate change, heat wave, extreme event attribution, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Abstract

Two extreme heatwaves hit Western Europe in the summer of 2019, with historical records broken by more than a degree in many locations, and significant societal impacts, including excess mortality of several thousand people. The extent to which human influence has played a role in the occurrence of these events has been of large interest to scientists, media and decision makers. However, the outstanding nature of these events poses challenges for physical and statistical modeling. Using an unprecedented number of climate model ensembles and statistical extreme value modeling, we demonstrate that these short and intense events would have had extremely small odds in the absence of human-induced climate change, and equivalently frequent events would have been 1.5 °C to 3 °C colder. For instance, in France and in The Netherlands, the July 3-day heatwave has a 50-150-year return period in the current climate and a return period of more than 1000 years without human forcing. The increase in the intensities is larger than the global warming by a factor 2 to 3. Finally, we note that the observed trends are much larger than those in current climate models.

Published
2020

9. EXPLAINING EXTREME EVENTS OF 2016 : From A Climate Perspective

Author

Herring, Stephanie C., Christidi, Nikolaos, Hoell, Andrew, Kossin, James P., Schreck, Carl J., Stott, Peter A., Webb, Robert S., Werner, Francisco E., Knutson, Thomas R., Kam, Jonghun, Zeng, Fanrong, Wittenberg, Andrew T., Brainard, Russell E., Oliver, Thomas, McPhaden, Michael J., Cohen, Anne, Venegas, Robert o, Heenan, Adel, Vargas-Ángel, Bernardo, Rotjan, Randi, Mangubhai, Sangeeta, Flint, Elizabeth, Hunter, Susan A., Oliver, Eric C. J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E., Holbrook, Neil J., Bindoff, Nathaniel L., Tett, Simon F. B., Falk, Alexander, Rogers, Megan, Spuler, Fiona, Turner, Calum, Wainwright, Joshua, Dimdore-Miles, Oscar, Knight, Sam, Freychet, Nicolas, Mineter, Michael J., Lehmann, Caroline E. R., Martins, Eduardo S. P. R., Coelho, Caio A. S., Haarsma, Rein, Otto, Friederike E. L., King, Andrew D., van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Kew, Sarah, Philip, Sjoukje, Vasconcelos, Francisco C., Cullen, Heidi, Jézéquel, Aglaé, Yiou, Pascal, Radanovics, Sabine, Vautard, Robert, Sippel, Sebastian, El-Madany, Tarek S., Migliavacca, Mirco, Mahecha, Miguel D., Carrara, Arnaud, Flach, Milan, Kaminski, Thomas, Otto, Friederike E. L., Thonicke, Kirsten, Vossbeck, Michael, Reichstein, Markus, Yuan, Xing, Wang, Linying, Wood, Eric F., Funk, Chris, Davenport, Frank, Harrison, Laura, Magadzire, Tamuka, Galu, Gideon, Artan, Guleid A., Shukla, Shraddhanand, Korecha, Diriba, Indeje, Matayo, Pomposi, Catherine, Macharia, Denis, Husak, Gregory, Nsadisa, Faka Dieudonne, Imada, Yukiko, Shiogama, Hideo, Takahashi, Chiharu, Watanabe, Masahiro, Mori, Masato, Kamae, Youichi, Maeda, Shuhei, Sun, Qiaohong, Miao, Chiyuan, Zhou, Chunlüe, Wang, Kaicun, Qi, Dan, Yuan, Xing, Wang, Shanshan, Hu, Zeng-Zhen, Qian, Cheng, Wang, Jun, Dong, Siyan, Yin, Hong, Burke, Claire, Ciavarella, Andrew, Dong, Buwen, Freychet, Nicolas, Lott, Fraser C., Tett, Simon F. B., Sun, Ying, Hu, Ting, Zhang, Xuebin, Wan, Hui, Stott, Peter, Lu, Chunhui, Christidis, Nikolaos, Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan, Ciavarella, Andrew, Stott, Peter A., Hope, Pandora, Lim, Eun-Pa, Hendon, Harry, Wang, Guomin, Lewis, Sophie C., Mallela, Jennie, Grose, Michael R., Black, Mitchell, Risbey, James S., Uhe, Peter, Hope, Pandora K., Haustein, Karsten, Mitchell, Dann, Stott, Peter A., Christidis, Nikos, Herring, Stephanie C., Hoell, Andrew, Kossin, James P., and Schreck, Carl J.

Published
2018

12. Summer Deep Depressions Increase Over the Eastern North Atlantic

Author

D'Andrea, Fabio, primary, Duvel, Jean‐Philippe, additional, Rivière, Gwendal, additional, Vautard, Robert, additional, Cassou, Christophe, additional, Cattiaux, Julien, additional, Coumou, Dim, additional, Faranda, Davide, additional, Happé, Tamara, additional, Jézéquel, Aglaé, additional, Ribes, Aurelien, additional, and Yiou, Pascal, additional

Published
2024
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13. Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots : A Study Based on CORDEX Data

Author

Spinoni, Jonathan, Barbosa, Paulo, Bucchignani, Edoardo, Cassano, John, Cavazos, Tereza, Christensen, Jens H., Christensen, Ole B., Coppola, Erika, Evans, Jason, Geyer, Beate, Giorgi, Filippo, Hadjinicolaou, Panos, Jacob, Daniela, Katzfey, Jack, Koenigk, Torben, Laprise, René, Lennard, Christopher J., Kurnaz, M. Levent, Li, Delei, Llopart, Marta, McCormick, Niall, Naumann, Gustavo, Nikulin, Grigory, Ozturk, Tugba, Panitz, Hans-Juergen, da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfirio, Rockel, Burkhardt, Solman, Silvina A., Syktus, Jozef, Tangang, Fredolin, Teichmann, Claas, Vautard, Robert, Vogt, Jürgen V., Winger, Katja, Zittis, George, and Dosio, Alessandro

Published
2020

14. Interplay between climate change and climate variability: the 2022 drought in Central South America

Author

Arias, Paola A., primary, Rivera, Juan Antonio, additional, Sörensson, Anna A., additional, Zachariah, Mariam, additional, Barnes, Clair, additional, Philip, Sjoukje, additional, Kew, Sarah, additional, Vautard, Robert, additional, Koren, Gerbrand, additional, Pinto, Izidine, additional, Vahlberg, Maja, additional, Singh, Roop, additional, Raju, Emmanuel, additional, Li, Sihan, additional, Yang, Wenchang, additional, Vecchi, Gabriel A., additional, and Otto, Friederike E. L., additional

Published
2023
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15. ClimaMeter: Contextualising Extreme Weather in a Changing Climate

Author

Faranda, Davide, primary, Messori, Gabriele, additional, Coppola, Erika, additional, Alberti, Tommaso, additional, Vrac, Mathieu, additional, Pons, Flavio, additional, Yiou, Pascal, additional, Saint Lu, Marion, additional, Hisi, Andreia N. S., additional, Brockmann, Patrick, additional, Dafis, Stavros, additional, and Vautard, Robert, additional

Published
2023
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17. Impacts of climate change on energy systems in global and regional scenarios

Author

Yalew, Seleshi G., van Vliet, Michelle T. H., Gernaat, David E. H. J., Ludwig, Fulco, Miara, Ariel, Park, Chan, Byers, Edward, De Cian, Enrica, Piontek, Franziska, Iyer, Gokul, Mouratiadou, Ioanna, Glynn, James, Hejazi, Mohamad, Dessens, Olivier, Rochedo, Pedro, Pietzcker, Robert, Schaeffer, Roberto, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Dasgupta, Shouro, Mima, Silvana, da Silva, Silvia R. Santos, Chaturvedi, Vaibhav, Vautard, Robert, and van Vuuren, Detlef P.

Published
2020
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18. EXPLAINING EXTREME EVENTS OF 2017 : From A Climate Perspective

Author

Herring, Stephanie C., Christidis, Nikolaos, Hoell, Andrew, Hoerling, Marty, Stott, Peter A., Owen, Rebecca, Vano, Julie A., Dettinger, Michael D., Cifelli, Rob, Curtis, David, Dufour, Alexis, Miller, Kathleen, Olsen, J. Rolf, Wilson, Anna M., Nerem, R. S., Fasullo, J., Hoell, Andrew, Perlwitz, Judith, Dewes, Candida, Wolter, Klaus, Rangwala, Imtiaz, Quan, Xiao-Wei, Eischeid, Jon, Wang, Hailan, Schubert, Siegfried D., Koster, Randal D., Chang, Yehui, Christidis, Nikolaos, Betts, Richard A., Stott, Peter A., de Abreu, Rafael C., Cunningham, Christopher, Rudorff, Conrado M., Rudorff, Natalia, Abatan, Abayomi A., Dong, Buwen, Lott, Fraser C., Tett, Simon F. B., Sparrow, Sarah N., Navarro, Juan C. Acosta, Ortega, Pablo, García-Serrano, Javier, Guemas, Virginie, Tourigny, Etienne, Cruz-García, Rubén, Massonnet, François, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J., Kew, Sarah F., Philip, Sjoukje Y., van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Otto, Friederike E. L., Vautard, Robert, van der Schrier, Gerard, Funk, Chris, Hoell, Andrew, Nicholson, Sharon, Korecha, Diriba, Galu, Gideon, Artan, Guleid, Teshome, Fetene, Hailermariam, Kinfe, Segele, Zewdu, Harrison, Laura, Tadege, Abebe, Atheru, Zachary, Pomposi, Catherine, Pedreros, Diego, Rimi, Ruksana H., Haustein, Karsten, Barbour, Emily J., Allen, Myles R., Takahashi, Chiharu, Shiogama, Hideo, Imada, Yukiko, Kosaka, Yu, Mori, Masato, Arai, Miki, Kamae, Youichi, Watanabe, Masahiro, Min, Seung-Ki, Kim, Yeon-Hee, Park, In-Hong, Lee, Donghyun, Sparrow, Sarah, Wallom, David, Stone, Dáithí, Sun, Ying, Dong, Siyan, Zhang, Xuebin, Stott, Peter, Hu, Ting, Wang, Shanshan, Yuan, Xing, Wu, Renguang, Chen, Yang, Chen, Wei, Su, Qin, Luo, Feifei, Sparrow, Sarah, Tian, Fangxing, Dong, Buwen, Tett, Simon F. B., Lott, Fraser C., Wallom, David, Zhou, Chunlüe, Wang, Kaicun, Qi, Dan, Tan, Jianguo, Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., King, A. D., Cougnon, E. A., Grose, M. R., Oliver, E. C. J., Holbrook, N. J., Lewis, S. C., Pourasghar, F., Hope, Pandora, Black, Mitchell T., Lim, Eun-Pa, Dowdy, Andrew, Wang, Guomin, Pepler, Acacia S., and Fawcett, Robert J. B.

Published
2019

24. Attribution of 2022 early-spring heatwave in India and Pakistan to climate change: lessons in assessing vulnerability and preparedness in reducing impacts

Author

Zachariah, Mariam, primary, T, Arulalan, additional, AchutaRao, Krishna Mirle, additional, Saeed, Fahad, additional, Jha, Roshan, additional, Dhasmana, Manish Kumar, additional, Mondal, Arpita, additional, Bonnet, Remy, additional, Vautard, Robert, additional, Philip, Sjoukje, additional, Kew, Sarah, additional, Vahlberg, Maja, additional, Singh, Roop, additional, Arrighi, Julie, additional, Heinrich, Dorothy, additional, Thalheimer, Lisa, additional, Marghidan, Carolina Pereira, additional, Kapoor, Aditi, additional, van Aalst, Maarten, additional, Raju, Emmanuel, additional, Li, Sihan, additional, Sun, Jingru, additional, Vecchi, Gabriel A, additional, Yang, Wenchang, additional, Hauser, Mathias, additional, Schumacher, Dominik L, additional, Seneviratne, Sonia I, additional, Harrington, Luke James, additional, and Otto, Friederike E L, additional

Published
2023
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28. THE EXCEPTIONAL SUMMER HEAT WAVE IN SOUTHERN EUROPE 2017

Author

Kew, Sarah F., Philip, Sjoukje Y., van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Otto, Friederike E.L., Vautard, Robert, and van der Schrier, Gerard

Subjects
Europe -- Environmental aspects, Mediterranean region -- Environmental aspects, Meteorological research, Human-environment interactions -- Research, Hot weather -- Research, Business, Earth sciences
Abstract

Across the Euro-Mediterranean the likelihood of a heat wave at least as hot as summer 2017 is now on the order of 10%. Anthropogenic climate change has increased the odds [...]

Published
2019
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29. Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe

Author

Vautard, Robert, Christidis, Nikolaos, Ciavarella, Andrew, Alvarez-Castro, Carmen, Bellprat, Omar, Christiansen, Bo, Colfescu, Ioana, Cowan, Tim, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Eden, Jonathan, Hauser, Mathias, Hegerl, Gabriele, Hempelmann, Nils, Klehmet, Katharina, Lott, Fraser, Nangini, Cathy, Orth, René, Radanovics, Sabine, Seneviratne, Sonia I., van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Stott, Peter, Tett, Simon, Wilcox, Laura, and Yiou, Pascal

Published
2019
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32. Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan

Author

Otto, Friederike EL, Zachariah, Mariam, Saeed, Fahad, Siddiqi, Ayesha, Kamil, Shahzad, Mushtaq, Haris, Arulalan, T, AchutaRao, Krishna, Chaithra, ST, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Wolski, Piotr, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Arrighi, Julie, Van Aalst, Maarten, Thalheimer, Lisa, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Harrington, Luke J, Clarke, Ben, European Climate Foundation, Commission of the European Communities, Otto, Friederike EL [0000-0001-8166-5917], Saeed, Fahad [0000-0003-1899-9118], Vautard, Robert [0000-0001-5544-9903], Koren, Gerbrand [0000-0002-2275-0713], Thalheimer, Lisa [0000-0002-3737-3586], Yang, Wenchang [0000-0003-0053-9527], Harrington, Luke J [0000-0002-1699-6119], Clarke, Ben [0000-0002-9498-6266], and Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository

Subjects
13 Climate Action, 3701 Atmospheric Sciences, 4101 Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation, 37 Earth Sciences, Climate-Related Exposures and Conditions, 41 Environmental Sciences
Abstract

As a direct consequence of extreme monsoon rainfall throughout the summer 2022 season Pakistan experienced the worst flooding in its history. We employ a probabilistic event attribution methodology as well as a detailed assessment of the dynamics to understand the role of climate change in this event. Many of the available state-of-the-art climate models struggle to simulate these rainfall characteristics. Those that pass our evaluation test generally show a much smaller change in likelihood and intensity of extreme rainfall than the trend we found in the observations. This discrepancy suggests that long-term variability, or processes that our evaluation may not capture, can play an important role, rendering it infeasible to quantify the overall role of human-induced climate change. However, the majority of models and observations we have analysed show that intense rainfall has become heavier as Pakistan has warmed. Some of these models suggest climate change could have increased the rainfall intensity up to 50%. The devastating impacts were also driven by the proximity of human settlements, infrastructure (homes, buildings, bridges), and agricultural land to flood plains, inadequate infrastructure, limited ex-ante risk reduction capacity, an outdated river management system, underlying vulnerabilities driven by high poverty rates and socioeconomic factors (e.g. gender, age, income, and education), and ongoing political and economic instability. Both current conditions and the potential further increase in extreme peaks in rainfall over Pakistan in light of anthropogenic climate change, highlight the urgent need to reduce vulnerability to extreme weather in Pakistan.

Published
2023

36. Regional climate downscaling over Europe: perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community

Author

Jacob, Daniela, Teichmann, Claas, Sobolowski, Stefan, Katragkou, Eleni, Anders, Ivonne, Belda, Michal, Benestad, Rasmus, Boberg, Fredrik, Buonomo, Erasmo, Cardoso, Rita M., Casanueva, Ana, Christensen, Ole B., Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg, Coppola, Erika, De Cruz, Lesley, Davin, Edouard L., Dobler, Andreas, Domínguez, Marta, Fealy, Rowan, Fernandez, Jesus, Gaertner, Miguel Angel, García-Díez, Markel, Giorgi, Filippo, Gobiet, Andreas, Goergen, Klaus, Gómez-Navarro, Juan José, Alemán, Juan Jesús González, Gutiérrez, Claudia, Gutiérrez, José M., Güttler, Ivan, Haensler, Andreas, Halenka, Tomáš, Jerez, Sonia, Jiménez-Guerrero, Pedro, Jones, Richard G., Keuler, Klaus, Kjellström, Erik, Knist, Sebastian, Kotlarski, Sven, Maraun, Douglas, van Meijgaard, Erik, Mercogliano, Paola, Montávez, Juan Pedro, Navarra, Antonio, Nikulin, Grigory, de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie, Panitz, Hans-Juergen, Pfeifer, Susanne, Piazza, Marie, Pichelli, Emanuela, Pietikäinen, Joni-Pekka, Prein, Andreas F., Preuschmann, Swantje, Rechid, Diana, Rockel, Burkhardt, Romera, Raquel, Sánchez, Enrique, Sieck, Kevin, Soares, Pedro M. M., Somot, Samuel, Srnec, Lidija, Sørland, Silje Lund, Termonia, Piet, Truhetz, Heimo, Vautard, Robert, Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten, and Wulfmeyer, Volker

Published
2020
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37. The ExtremeX global climate model experiment: investigating thermodynamic and dynamic processes contributing to weather and climate extremes

Author

Wehrli, Kathrin, Luo, Fei, Hauser, Mathias, Shiogama, Hideo, Tokuda, Daisuke, Kim, Hyungjun, Coumou, Dim, May, Wilhelm, Le Sager, Philippe, Selten, Frank, Martius, Olivia, Vautard, Robert, Seneviratne, Sonia I., Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Water and Climate Risk

Subjects
[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, 550 Earth sciences & geology, SDG 13 - Climate Action, 910 Geography & travel
Abstract

The mechanisms leading to the occurrence of extreme weather and climate events are varied and complex. They generally encompass a combination of dynamic and thermodynamic processes, as well as drivers external to the climate system, such as anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and land use change. Here we present the ExtremeX multi-model intercomparison experiment, which was designed to investigate the contribution of dynamic and thermodynamic processes to recent weather and climate extremes. The numerical experiments are performed with three Earth system models: CESM, MIROC, and EC-Earth. They include control experiments with interactive atmosphere and land surface conditions, as well as experiments wherein the atmospheric circulation, soil moisture, or both are constrained using observation-based data. The temporal evolution and magnitude of temperature anomalies during heatwaves are well represented in the experiments with a constrained atmosphere. However, the magnitude of mean climatological biases in temperature and precipitation are not greatly reduced in any of the constrained experiments due to persistent or newly introduced biases. This highlights the importance of error compensations and tuning in the standard model versions. To show one possible application, ExtremeX is used to identify the main drivers of heatwaves and warm spells. The results reveal that both atmospheric circulation patterns and soil moisture conditions substantially contribute to the occurrence of these events. Soil moisture effects are particularly important in the tropics, the monsoon areas, and the Great Plains of the United States, whereas atmospheric circulation effects are major drivers in other midlatitude and high-latitude regions., Earth System Dynamics, 13 (3), ISSN:2190-4987, ISSN:2190-4979

Published
2022

38. ClimaMeter: Contextualising Extreme Weather in a Changing Climate.

Author

Faranda, Davide, Messori, Gabriele, Coppola, Erika, Alberti, Tommaso, Vrac, Mathieu, Pons, Flavio, Yiou, Pascal, Lu, Marion Saint, Hisi, Andreia N. S., Brockmann, Patrick, Dafis, Stavros, and Vautard, Robert

Subjects
EXTREME weather, WEATHER & climate change, WINDSTORMS, HEAT waves (Meteorology), CLIMATE change, WINTER storms
Abstract

Climate change is a global challenge with multiple far-reaching consequences, including the intensification and increased frequency of many extreme weather events. In response to this pressing issue, we present ClimaMeter, a platform designed to assess and contextualise extreme weather events relative to climate change. The platform offers near real-time insights into the dynamics of extreme events, serving as a resource for researchers, policymakers, and being a science dissemination tool for the general public. ClimaMeter currently analyses heatwaves, cold spells, heavy precipitation and windstorms. This paper elucidates the methodology, data sources, and analytical techniques on which ClimaMeter relies, providing a comprehensive overview of its scientific foundation. To illustrate Climameter, we provide four examples, the December 2022 North American Winter Storm, the August 2023 Guangdong – Hong Kong Flood, the late 2023 French Heatwave and the July 2023 windstorm Poly. They underscore the role of ClimaMeter in fostering a deeper understanding of the complex interactions between climate change and extreme weather, with the hope of ultimately contributing to informed decision-making and climate resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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39. An extreme cold Central European winter such as 1963 is unlikely but still possible despite climate change.

Author

Sippel, Sebastian, Barnes, Clair, Cadiou, Camille, Fischer, Erich, Kew, Sarah, Kretschmer, Marlene, Philip, Sjoukje, Shepherd, Theodore G., Singh, Jitendra, Vautard, Robert, and Yiou, Pascal

Subjects
CLIMATE change, GLOBAL warming, WINTER, ATMOSPHERIC models, INFRASTRUCTURE (Economics)
Abstract

Central European winters have warmed markedly since the mid-20th century. Yet cold winters are still associated with severe societal impacts on energy systems, infrastructure and public health. It is therefore crucial to anticipate storylines of worst-case cold winter conditions, and to understand whether an extremely cold winter, such as the coldest winter in the historical record of Germany in 1963 (−6.3 °C or −3.4 σ seasonal DJF temperature anomaly relative to 1981–2010), is still possible in a warming climate. Here, we first show based on multiple attribution methods that a winter of similar circulation conditions to 1963 would still lead to an extreme seasonal cold anomaly of about −4.9 to −4.7 °C (best estimates across methods) under present-day climate. This would rank as second-coldest winter in the last 75 years. Second, we conceive storylines of worst-case cold winter conditions based on two independent rare event sampling methods (climate model boosting and empirical importance sampling): winter as cold as 1963 is still physically possible in Central Europe today, albeit very unlikely. While cold winter hazards become less frequent and less intense in a warming climate overall, it remains crucial to anticipate the possibility of an extreme cold winter to avoid potential maladaptation and increased vulnerability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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41. 14. ATTRIBUTION OF WINTERTIME ANTICYCLONIC STAGNATION CONTRIBUTING TO AIR POLLUTION IN WESTERN EUROPE: Climate simulations suggest a potential increase in frequency of stagnant wintertime conditions that prevailed over northwestern Europe in December 2016: it is significant in one multimodel ensemble but not in two single-model ensembles

Author

Vautard, Robert, Colette, Augustin, Van Meijgaard, Erik, Meleux, Frederik, Van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Otto, Friederike, Tobin, Isabelle, and Yiou, Pascal

Subjects
Western Europe -- Environmental aspects, Winter -- Environmental aspects, High pressure systems (Meteorology) -- Environmental aspects, Air pollution -- Models -- Measurement, Business, Earth sciences
Abstract

Introduction. In December 2016, western European weather was dominated by persistent anticyclonic conditions (Fig. 14.1a) leading to dry and calm weather. At this time of year, solar radiation does not [...]

Published
2018
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42. 15. ANALYSIS OF THE EXCEPTIONALLY WARM DECEMBER 2015 IN FRANCE USING FLOW ANALOGUES

Author

Jezequel, Aglae, Yiou, Pascal, Radanovics, Sabine, and Vautard, Robert

Subjects
December -- Natural history -- 2015 AD, Climate change -- Environmental aspects, Warm fronts -- Observations, Atmospheric circulation -- Environmental aspects, Business, Earth sciences
Abstract

December 2015 in France was an extreme of circulation and temperature. Both circulation and climate change partly explain the 4[degrees]C anomaly. We found no link between climate change and circulation. [...]

Published
2018
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43. Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan

Author

Otto, Friederike E L, primary, Zachariah, Mariam, additional, Saeed, Fahad, additional, Siddiqi, Ayesha, additional, Kamil, Shahzad, additional, Mushtaq, Haris, additional, Arulalan, T, additional, AchutaRao, Krishna, additional, Chaithra, S T, additional, Barnes, Clair, additional, Philip, Sjoukje, additional, Kew, Sarah, additional, Vautard, Robert, additional, Koren, Gerbrand, additional, Pinto, Izidine, additional, Wolski, Piotr, additional, Vahlberg, Maja, additional, Singh, Roop, additional, Arrighi, Julie, additional, van Aalst, Maarten, additional, Thalheimer, Lisa, additional, Raju, Emmanuel, additional, Li, Sihan, additional, Yang, Wenchang, additional, Harrington, Luke J, additional, and Clarke, Ben, additional

Published
2023
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44. Human influence on growing-period frosts like in early April 2021 in central France

Author

Vautard, Robert, primary, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, additional, Bonnet, Rémy, additional, Li, Sihan, additional, Robin, Yoann, additional, Kew, Sarah, additional, Philip, Sjoukje, additional, Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel, additional, Dubuisson, Brigitte, additional, Viovy, Nicolas, additional, Reichstein, Markus, additional, Otto, Friederike, additional, and Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, Iñaki, additional

Published
2023
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46. Heat extremes in Western Europe are increasing faster than simulated due to missed atmospheric circulation changes

Author

Vautard, Robert, primary, Cattiaux, Julien, additional, Happé, Tamara, additional, Singh, Jitendra, additional, Bonnet, Rémy, additional, Cassou, Christophe, additional, Coumou, Dim, additional, D'Andrea, Fabio, additional, Faranda, Davide, additional, Fischer, Erich, additional, Ribes, Aurélien, additional, Sippel, Sebastian, additional, and Yiou, Pascal, additional

Published
2023
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