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The present study analyzes students’ weather-related hazard and risk literacy in Greece, a climate change hotspot region in the Eastern Mediterranean. In this context, we examine the students’ level in two core literacy variables, namely knowledge and competency. In addition, we explore how knowledge, attitudes, and socio-demographic variables influence students’ competencies related to weather and climate risk assessment and adaptability. A questionnaire-based survey was conducted on 474 students aged 12–16. The regression results showed that knowledge significantly affects the level of competency. Self-belief and confidence in science were the most influential among the attitudinal variables. We conclude by discussing the educational and behavioral issues highlighted as essential to address them with targeted policies and measures in formal education complemented by non-formal educational activities. We also propose future education requirements like further integration of real-world applications and advanced technologies to enhance students’ literacy in weather-related hazards and risks.

Abstract A Mediterranean cyclone is a weather phenomenon capable of producing extremely severe conditions, including heavy rainfall and strong winds. Between March 24 and 26, 2023, a cyclone passed along the western Egyptian Mediterranean coast, spanning three days. This paper aims to investigate the cyclone's impact on wave characteristics, focusing particularly on simulating changes in the energy transported from wind to waves during its passage, which constitutes the core objective of this study. The research methodology involved collecting meteorological and hydrodynamic data over five days from March 23 to 27, 2023, utilizing databases of the Bologna Limited Area Model (BOLAM) and the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO). This data, combined with field data for model calibration and validation, was analyzed using the Simulating the WAves Nearshore (SWAN) model packaged within the Delft 3D hydrodynamical model, integrated with other data manipulation tools. (SWAN) demonstrated the ability to simulate energy transport during extreme weather events along the coastal area with high resolution, up to 500 m. The results indicate a significant increase in significant wave height, reaching up to 2.5 m, and disturbances in wind direction, with velocities exceeding 10 m per second. These conditions pose risks to the infrastructure in some cities along the study area and have severe impacts on coastal communities. A notable finding from the simulations is the excess energy transport, which reached up to 12,000 watts per meter over the sea surface during the cyclone. Furthermore, calibration and validation results affirm the (SWAN) model's capability to accurately study wave characteristics.

Abstract Existing assessments of the thermal-related impact of the environment on humans are often limited by the use of data that are not representative of the population exposure and/or not consider a human centred approach. Here, we combine high resolution regional retrospective analysis (reanalysis), population data and human energy balance modelling, in order to produce a human thermal bioclimate dataset capable of addressing the above limitations. The dataset consists of hourly, population-weighted values of an advanced human-biometeorological index, namely the modified physiologically equivalent temperature (mPET), at fine-scale administrative level and for 10 different population groups. It also includes the main environmental drivers of mPET at the same spatiotemporal resolution, covering the period from 1991 to 2020. The study area is Greece, but the provided code allows for the ease replication of the dataset in countries included in the domains of the climate reanalysis and population data, which focus over Europe. Thus, the presented data and code can be exploited for human-biometeorological and environmental epidemiological studies in the European continent.

Europe and the Mediterranean are considered climate change hot spots. This is the reason why this paper focuses on the analysis of the trends of essential climate variables in a Mediterranean country, Greece. The analyzed period is 1991–2020, and the dataset used is ERA5-Land (produced by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), which has global coverage and an improved resolution of ~9 × 9 km compared to other datasets. Significant climatic changes across Greece have been put in evidence during the analyzed period. More specifically, the country averaged a 30-year trend of temperature of +1.5 °C, locally exceeding +2 °C, and this increasing trend is positively correlated with the distance of the areas from the coasts. Accordingly, the number of frost days has decreased throughout the country. In terms of rainfall, a major part of Greece has experienced increasing annual rainfall amounts, while 86% of the Greek area has experienced a positive trend of days with heavy rainfall (>20 mm). Finally, a multiple signal of the trend of consecutive dry days was found (statistically non-significant in the major part of Greece).

Climate change presents an urgent global challenge, manifesting in rising temperatures and extreme weather events with severe societal impacts. The Eastern Mediterranean, warming faster than the global average, faces immediate repercussions. Climate literacy emerges as pivotal, empowering individuals to comprehend climate science and act accordingly. This study delves into climate literacy, attitudes, and ‘greening’ behaviours in the Eastern Mediterranean hotspot of Greece, based on a survey of 1962 citizens. Findings indicate high climate literacy but lower adoption of ‘greening’ behaviours, especially those involving financial costs. Regression analyses highlight the significant role of climate literacy, concerns about personal impacts, coping appraisal, and trust in institutions in promoting ‘greening’ behaviours. This study underscores the need for multifaceted strategies emphasising financial motivation, trust-building, and societal norm shifts. Socio-demographic disparities, including gender and occupation, highlight areas for targeted interventions. The emphasis on the mental health impacts of climate-related events underscores the need for comprehensive disaster management that addresses not only physical damage but also psychological and social dimensions. Policy implications are discussed, highlighting the potential of expanded climate literacy to catalyse collective action toward sustainability.

The change in heating and cooling needs of Greece in the near future due to the climate change is assessed in the present study. Global and regional climate models and two different representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are used to simulate the expected change in temperature. A widely used methodology of computation of heating degree days (HDDs) and cooling degree days (CDDs) is employed with a base temperature of 18 °C. In agreement with the expected temperature rise in the near future, an HDD decrease and CDD increase under both RCPs is also expected. The changes under RCP8.5 are stronger compared to those under RCP4.5. Differences related to topography are noted. The HDD decrease is stronger than CDD increase but the relative increase in CDDs is higher than the relative increase in HDDs. The highest absolute decreases in HDDs are expected for February and March while the highest absolute increases in CDDs are expected during the three summer months.

Measurement(s) flood mortality characteristics • condition (means of transport) • activity • accident place • accident dynamic • death cause • protective behavior • hazardous behavior Technology Type(s) data collection Factor Type(s) demographics • country • administrative units • NUTS 1–3 Sample Characteristic - Location territories in the Euro-Mediterranean region

Heating and Cooling Degree Days (HDD, CDD) are indicative of the energy needs of buildings and also are associated with agriculturalism, tourism and other outdoor activities. Under the changing climate, future modifications of HDD and CDD are of primary importance. In the present work, monthly and annual HDD and CDD are computed and analyzed for the present and near future climate conditions. Elevation and sea proximity were found to be crucial in the formulation of energy requirements. Summer energy needs for cooling are expected to increase due to global warming while winter needs for heating are expected to decrease.

Europe has been experiencing an increasing number of sweltering heat waves in recent years. This run of hot extremes induces a significant impact on the human environment, especially in terms of excess mortality, highlighting the urgent need for improved heat–health action planning. This is particularly true in countries situated in the eastern Mediterranean, which is considered a climate change hot spot. To increase preparedness and response to overheating risks, heat–health warning systems (HHWSs) are of vital importance. In this direction, the principal aim of the HEAT-ALARM research project is to provide a novel scientific and technological framework for the development of efficient HHWSs, employing Greece as a testbed. Going beyond the simple notion that outdoor meteorological conditions alone can adequately describe the heat–health nexus, a sophisticated human-biometeorological index, the modified physiologically equivalent temperature (mPET), is used. Advanced statistical models and tools are employed in order to establish a clear link between mPET and excess mortality at regional-unit administrative level. Moreover, urban climate factors produced by combining remote sensing and geographical information system techniques are incorporated into the HHWS via a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. The latter includes a scheme that combines the parameterization and modeling of building effects and energy, respectively, in order to account for the urban indoor thermal conditions and the intra-urban differential heat exposure within the five highest populated cities of Greece (Athens, Thessaloniki, Patras, Heraklion and Larissa). Further, the human body’s acclimatization ability is considered, as well as the physiological characteristics of different vulnerable groups of people, including the elderly, women and outdoor workers. The current paper describes the scientific background of HEAT-ALARM and provides preliminary results associated with the project’s realization.

In recent years, a considerable body of research has demonstrated the suitability of global and regional reanalysis data for human-biometeorological applications. These applications include the assessment of the outdoor thermal environment and the investigation of its relation to human health, especially in areas where the spatial coverage of surface observational networks is sparse. Here, we present the first comprehensive evaluation of the most recent pan-European regional reanalysis, namely the Copernicus European Regional Reanalysis (CERRA) dataset at 5.5 km spatial resolution, in terms of simulating the observed human bioclimate, as expressed by the modified physiologically equivalent temperature (mPET) that is computed through the RayMan Pro model, and its meteorological drivers. The validation was performed over Greece using up to 11 years of records of 2 m air temperature and relative humidity, 10 m wind speed and global solar radiation derived from 35 sites of the nationwide network of surface weather stations operated by the METEO Unit at the National Observatory of Athens. The ERA5-Land dataset at ~9 km spatial resolution, which represents the current state-of-the-art reanalysis, was also compared against the same observations. Our findings show that the CERRA dataset performs significantly better compared to the ERA5-Land reanalysis with respect to the replication of the examined meteorological variables and mPET. The added value of the CERRA data is particularly evident during the warm period of the year and in regions that are characterized by complex topography and/or proximity to the coastline. Combining the CERRA dataset with population and mortality data, we further showcase its applicability for human-biometeorological and heat–health studies at a local scale, using the regional unit of Rethymno (Crete) as a pilot area for the analysis.

Climate change raises concerns over the sustainability of the outdoor thermal environment and its impacts on societies. This study aims to examine the thermal conditions in Athens metropolitan area, Greece. Hourly data from 15 stations of the Automatic Weather Station Network of the National Observatory of Athens (2010–2021) were used to estimate the Net Effective Temperature (NET) and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). The NET and UTCI were higher within the Athens basin (NET: mean ± sd = 15.3 ± 7.1 °C; UTCI: mean ± sd = 18.9 ± 10.4 °C) than in the surrounding area (NET: mean ± sd = 11.2 ± 9.3 °C; UTCI: mean ± sd = 13.4 ± 13.4 °C; p < 0.001). The highest numbers of hours with unfavorable warm conditions were found in Faliro (28.6%, NET; 27.7%, UTCI), Neos Kosmos (28.6%, NET; 27.4%, UTCI) and Patissia (28.6%, NET; 27.2%, UTCI). With respect to unfavorable cool conditions, the highest number was in Spata (65.1%, NET; 28.4%, UTCI).

The Southeast Mediterranean (SEM) is characterized by increased vulnerability to river/stream flooding. However, impact-oriented, operational fluvial flood forecasting is far away from maturity in the region. The current paper presents the first attempt at introducing an operational impact-based warning system in the area, which is founded on the coupling of a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model with an advanced spatially-explicit hydrological model. The system’s modeling methodology and forecasting scheme are presented, as well as prototype results, which were derived under a pre-operational mode. Future developments and challenges needed to be addressed in terms of validating the system and increasing its efficiency are also discussed. This communication highlights that standard approaches used in operational weather forecasting in the SEM for providing flood-related information and alerts can, and should, be replaced by advanced coupled hydrometeorological systems, which can be implemented without a significant cost on the operational character of the provided services. This is of great importance in establishing effective early warning services for fluvial flooding in the region.

The algorithm of the Convective Rainfall Rate with Microphysical Properties (CRRPh) product of the 2021 version of the Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting Satellite Application Facility (NWC SAF) presents innovative characteristics. It was developed employing principal components analysis to reduce the number of utilized parameters and uses the same mathematical scheme for day and night, simulating the missing visual channels and satellite-derived cloud water path information that is unavailable during nighttime. Applying adequate statistical methodologies and scores and using rain gauge data as ground truth, it is shown that the new algorithm appears to be significantly improved compared to its predecessors in regard to the delineation of the precipitation areas. In addition, it minimizes the day–night difference in the estimation efficiency, which is a remarkable achievement. The new product suffers from slightly higher errors in the precipitation accumulations. Finally, it is shown that topography does not seem to affect the estimation efficiency of the product. In light of these results, it is argued that, overall, the new algorithm outperforms its predecessors and, possibly after adequate adaptations, can be used as a real-time total precipitation product.

Heatwave events are of major concern in the global context, since they can significantly impact ecosystems, economies and societies. For this reason, more detailed analyses of the characteristics and trends of heatwaves represent a priority that cannot be neglected. In this study, the interannual and decadal variability of seven indices of heatwaves were investigated during the warmest period of the year (June–August) by using an enhanced resolution reanalysis model (ERA5-Land) over a 71-year period (1950–2020) for the area of Greece. Heatwaves were defined as periods where two thresholds, based on a modified version of the Excess Heat Factor index (EHF) and the 95th percentile of the maximum daily temperature, were exceeded for at least three consecutive days. Greece experiences almost yearly 0.7 heatwaves on average during the whole period of study, while this value has increased by ~80% since 1990. Trend analysis revealed that heatwaves have become more frequent, longer, and more intense since 1950. The percentage of the land area that experiences at least one heatwave per year was almost doubled in the examined period. An increasing trend in the number of heatwaves that occurred in June was identified.

The 2021 fire season in Greece was the worst of the past 13 years, resulting in more than 130,000 ha of burnt area, with about 70% consumed by five wildfires that ignited and spread in early August. Common to these wildfires was the occurrence of violent pyroconvection. This work presents a meteorological analysis of this outbreak of extreme pyroconvective wildfires. Our analysis shows that dry and warm antecedent weather preconditioned fuels in the fire-affected areas, creating a fire environment that alone could effectively support intense wildfire activity. Analysis of surface conditions revealed that the ignition and the most active spread of all wildfires coincided with the most adverse fire weather since the beginning of the fire season. Further, the atmospheric environment was conducive to violent pyroconvection, as atmospheric instability gradually increased amid the breakdown of an upper-air ridge ahead of an approaching long-wave trough. In summary, we highlight that the severity and extent of the 2021 Greek wildfires were not surprising considering the fire weather potential for the period when they ignited. Continuous monitoring of the large- and local-scale conditions that promote extreme fire behavior is imperative for improving Greece’s capacity for managing extreme wildfires.

Flood-producing rainfall amounts have a significant cumulative economic impact. Despite the advance in flood risk mitigation measures, the cost of rehabilitation and compensation of citizens by the state and insurance companies is increasing worldwide. A continuing challenge is the flood risk assessment based on reliable hazard and impact measures. The present study addresses this challenge by identifying rainfall thresholds likely to trigger economic losses due to flood damages to properties across the Athens Metropolitan Area of Greece. The analysis uses eight-year rainfall observations from 66 meteorological stations and high spatial resolution insurance claims on the postal code segmentation. Threshold selection techniques were applied based on the ROC curves widely used to assess the performance of binary response models. The model evaluates the probability of flood damages in terms of insurance claims in this case. Thresholds of 24-h rainfall were identified at the municipal level, as municipalities are the first administration level where decision making to address the local risks for the citizens is needed. The rainfall thresholds were further classified to estimate and map the local risk of flood damages. Practical implications regarding the applicability of the detected thresholds in early-warning systems are also discussed.

This paper is devoted to the discussion of the practice of storm naming that has been initiated in January 2017 for the first time in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Namely the METEO Unit at NOA, taking into consideration that storm naming facilitates meteorologists, researchers, authorities, civil protection officers, the media and citizens to communicate the forecasts of high-impact weather events, started storm naming in January 2017 and has named 35 storms up to September 2021. The criteria of storm naming are discussed, and a synopsis of the events is presented. The monthly distribution shows that 57% of the named storms occurred during the winter period, with January being the month with the highest percentage of occurrence of named storms (28%). The impact of storm naming on citizens risk perception and increased awareness has been also assessed through an internet-based questionnaire that was launched on the fourth year of the storm naming practice in Greece. Overall, results indicate a significant impact of storm naming on the readiness of citizens through the activation of perceptual and cognitive mechanisms.

The spatiotemporal patterns and trends of shortwave global irradiance (SWGI) are a crucial factor affecting not only the climate but also sectors of the economy. In this work, the ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset is employed and evaluated against in situ measurements from a dense network of surface stations operated by the National Observatory of Athens over Greece, revealing a good agreement between the two datasets. Then, the spatiotemporal variability of SWGI is investigated over the Euro-Mediterranean region (10° W–42° E and 30° N–52° N) for a 40-year period (1981–2020). SWGI exhibits a smooth latitudinal variability from north to south of −5.4 W/m2/degree on an annual scale, while it varies significantly on a seasonal basis and is almost four times lower in the winter than in the summer. The SWGI trend during the analyzed period was found to be positive and statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Spring and summer are the periods where positive and the strongest rates of SWGI trends are evident, while in the winter and autumn, negative or neutral trends were found. The increasing SWGI trend shows a slowdown during the beginning of the 2000s in all seasons, except autumn. The SWGI trend decreases by about −0.06 W/m2/decade every 100 m of elevation increase.

Households have been pointed out as a significant source of air pollution and climate change. In Europe, the 60% of energy used by households is for space heating. The present work focuses on improving the knowledge on residential heating characteristics in Greece. The full causal chain, from the appliances used to the pollutants emitted, is examined at thelocal scale. A crowdsourcing approach was followed for the collection of the necessary data for performing the emissions calculations. With the use of a Geographic Information System (GIS), dynamic maps were produced for each Greek region, providing the information produced in this study in gridded form. In terms of energy demands, it was found that Greece relies mainly on oil and biomass and secondarily on gas and electricity. The use of biomass burning as a main heating fuel is quite high inthe colder and rural areas, while it is popular as a secondary heating fuel inthe urban areas. The residential heating period in Greece lasts from October to April and it is even shorter in southern Greece. In terms of emissions, CO and PM10 had the highest values since they are related to biomass burning. NOx emissions are mainly emitted by the oil burned in boilers.

On 2 June 2014, at about 13 UTC, a dust storm arrived in Tehran as a severe hazard that caused injures, deaths, failures in power supply, and traffic disruption. Such an extreme event is not considered as common for the Tehran area, which has raised the question of the dust storm’s origin and the need for increasing citizens’ preparedness during such events. The analysis of the observational data and numerical simulations using coupled dust-atmospheric models showed that intensive convective activity occurred over the south and southwest of Tehran, which produced cold downdrafts and, consequently, high-velocity surface winds. Different dust source masks were used as an input for model hindcasts of the event (forecasts of the past event) to show the capability of the numerical models to perform high-quality forecasts in such events and to expand the knowledge on the storm’s formation and progression. In addition to the proven capability of the models, if engaged in operational use to contribute to the establishment of an early warning system for dust storms, another conclusion appeared as a highlight of this research: abandoned agricultural areas south of Tehran were responsible for over 50% of the airborne dust concentration within the dust storm that surged through Tehran. Such a dust source in the numerical simulation produced a PM10 surface dust concentration of several thousand μm/m3, which classifies it as a dust source hot-spot. The produced evidence indivisibly links issues of land degradation, extreme weather, environmental protection, and health and safety.

The achievement of the long-term national energy targets in Greece for large-scale integration of wind and solar energy may be facilitated by the development of hydro-pumped storage projects. In light of the above, technical aspects related with the operation of the Greek power system and its ability to absorb renewable energy are analyzed in connection with the role of hydro-pumped storage and relative economic aspects. The aim of this work is to assess the potential contribution of hydro-pumped storage projects and estimate the capacity magnitude order to support large-scale wind and photovoltaic (PV) integration in Greece. For this purpose, scenarios for the Greek power system with focus on Wind and PV development, in conjunction with hydro-pumped storage capacity, are developed, and results for current situation and reference years 2030 and 2050 are presented. For the simulation, among others, high resolution mesoscale wind data for a typical year in the whole Greek territory are used for the steady state simulation of the Greek power system, in order to better estimate the power that could be generated from installed wind turbines, taking into consideration technical characteristics of a typical commercial wind turbine. Results indicate the need of gradual development of hydro-pumped storage in parallel with the large-scale integration of wind and PV capacity into the Greek power system. In addition, the feasibility of the examined scenarios is supported from the low cost of wind and PV generation. In the case of Greece, thanks to the complex morphology and hydraulic conditions of the country, hydro-pumped storage composes an efficient and low-cost storage solution.

The current work presents the operational implementation and evaluation of a rapid response fire spread forecasting system, named IRIS, that was developed to provide support to the tactical wildfire suppression activities of the Hellenic Fire Corps. The system was operationally employed during the 2019 fire season in Greece, providing on-demand wildfire spread predictions for 17 incidents. Satellite remote sensing data were employed for quantitatively assessing IRIS’s predictions for eight selected events. Our results suggest an overall satisfactory model performance. More importantly, this study demonstrates that, as coupled fire-atmosphere modeling becomes an increasingly popular approach, the respective models have great potential to support operational agencies and wildfire managers during the incident phase.

The CyFFORS (Cyprus Flood Forecasting System) project aims at increasing flood risk awareness and promoting preparedness against flooding by developing and validating a pilot flood forecasting system targeted over three river/stream basins in the Larnaca region, Cyprus, and Attica region, Greece. The present study demonstrates the analysis of flood-associated information, based on ground-based and ERA5 model reanalysis data, which is a necessary procedure prior to the development of the hydrometeorological modeling tool, in one of the study areas, namely in the Rafina catchment in Attica, Greece. The analysis focusses on 12 stream flood episodes that occurred in the period 2008–2014. The results show that most events were associated with a typical, for the study area, wet-season cyclonic activity. The detailed investigation of two case studies highlighted important spatiotemporal differences in the generation and development of rainfall, as well as in the flooding magnitude, which were related to specific characteristics of the synoptic-scale forcing, topography and soil moisture preconditioning. Moreover, highly correlated positive relationships were found between the observed maximum stream discharge and the duration and maximum total accumulation of precipitation. A strong positive correlation was also evident between the peak discharge and the flooding impacts, leading to the identification of preliminary discharge thresholds for impact-based warnings, which can be applied to the pilot CyFFORS forecasting system.

Wind energy and photovoltaic solar energy (PV) are the most mature renewable energy technologies and are widely used to increase renewable energy penetration in non-interconnected Greek islands. However, their penetration is restricted due to technical issues related to the safe operation of autonomous power systems, the current conventional power infrastructure and their variable power output. In this framework, renewable energy curtailment is sometimes a necessity to ensure the balance between demand and supply. The ability of autonomous power systems to absorb wind and PV power is related to the load demand profile, the type and the flexibility of conventional power plants, the size of power system and the spatial dispersion of wind farms. In this connection, a probabilistic approach for estimating wind energy curtailment is thoroughly applied in most of the autonomous power systems in Greece, using detailed information about load demand and conventional power supply. In parallel, high resolution mesoscale model-based hourly wind data for typical meteorological wind year are used to represent the wind features in all the sites of interest. Technical constraints imposed by the local power system operator, related to the commitment of conventional power plants and the load dispatch strategies are taken into account to maximize renewable energy penetration levels. Finally, application for wide ranges of wind and PV capacity and the thorough analysis of the parameters leads to the presentation of comparable results and conclusions, which could be widely used to predict wind energy curtailment in non-interconnected power systems.

During February 2019, two severe storms affected the island of Crete, located in south Greece. Both storms produced excessive rainfall, provoking severe damages, especially in the western part of Crete. The role of the prevailing synoptic patterns and the interaction of the flow with the high mountains of Crete were investigated. For this purpose, a variety of observational and numerical model data were exploited, including data from a dense rain gauge network, satellite imagery, and model analysis of various parameters describing the stability of the impinging flow. The first storm was a long-lasting event, with convective outbreaks embedded in a more stratiform rainfall pattern. The second storm was brief but mostly convection dominated. The analysis of the available data underlined the role of the low-level convergence upstream of the mountains during both storms, highlighting similarities and differences, as well as the role of the stability of the impinging flow. High soil moisture content was also evidenced as a key ingredient for the severe flooding that occurred during the second storm. This work complements similar studies on the role of Mediterranean islands and their topography on the spatial and temporal distribution of extreme rainfall.

The derivation of global navigation satellite systems (GNSSs) tropospheric products is nowadays a state-of-the-art technique that serves both research and operational needs in a broad range of applications in meteorology. In particular, GNSS zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) data assimilation is widely applied in Europe to enhance numerical weather predictions (NWPs). The current study presents the first attempt at introducing assimilation of ZTDs, derived from more than 48 stations of the Hellenic GNSS network, into the operational NWP system of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA) in Greece, which is based on the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. WRF was applied during seven high-impact precipitation events covering the dry and wet season of 2018. The simulation employing the ZTD data assimilation reproduces more accurately, compared to the control experiment, the observed heavy rainfall (especially for high precipitation events, exceeding 20 mm in 24h) during both dry and wet periods. Assimilating ZTDs also improves the simulation of intense (>20 mm) convective precipitation during the time window of its occurrence in the dry season, and provides a beneficial influence during synoptic-scale events in the wet period. The above results, which are statistically significant, highlight an important positive impact of ZTD assimilation on the model’s precipitation forecast skill over Greece. Overall, the modelling system’s configuration, including the assimilation of ZTD observations, satisfactorily captures the spatial and temporal distribution of the observed rainfall and can therefore be used as the basis for examining further improvements in the future.

Recent events in Western Attica in Greece (24 deaths in November 2017), in the Balearic Islands (13 deaths in October 2018), and in southern France (15 deaths in October 2018) show that flood-related mortality remains a major concern in Mediterranean countries facing flash floods. Over the past several years, many initiatives have arisen to create databases on flood-related mortality. An international initiative started in 2011 pooling regional and national databases on flood mortality from region and/or countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea. The MEditerranean Flood Fatality Database (MEFF DB) brings together, in 2018, six Mediterranean regions/countries: Catalonia (Spain), Balearic Islands (Spain), Southern France, Calabria (Italy), Greece, and Turkey, and covers the period 1980−2018. MEFF DB is on progress and, every year, new data are included, but for this study, we kept only the preliminary data that were geolocated and validated on 31st of December 2018. This research introduces a new step in the analysis of flood-related mortality and follows the statistical description of the MEFF DB already published. The goals of this paper are to draw the spatial distribution of flood mortality through a geographical information system (GIS) at different spatial scales: country, NUTS 3 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics. Level 3) regions, catchment areas, and grid. A fatality rate (F: number of deaths/year/million of inhabitants) is created to help this analysis. Then, we try to relate mortality to basic (human or physical) drivers such as population density, rainfall seasonality, or rainfall frequency across the Mediterranean Basin. The mapping of F shows a negative mortality gradient between the western and the eastern parts of the Mediterranean Sea. The south of France appears to be the most affected region. The maps also highlight the seasonality of flood-related deaths with the same west−east gradient. It confirms that flood mortality follows the climatological seasonal patterns across the Mediterranean Basin. Flood-related fatalities mainly occur during the early fall season in the western part of the Mediterranean area, while the Easter Basin is affected later, in November or during the winter season. Eastern Turkey introduces another pattern, as mortality is more severe in summer. Mortality maps are then compared with factors that potentially contribute to the occurrence of flood fatalities, such as precipitation intensity (rainfall hazard), to explain geographical differences in the fatality rate. The density of a fatal event is correlated to the population density and the rainfall frequency. Conversely, the average number of deaths per event depends on other factors such as prevention or crisis management.

Climate-related hazards, such as wildfires and hydrogeological phenomena, cause extensive damages and casualties around the world. Despite the recent advances and technologies for risk mitigation, it is acknowledged that public risk perception is a critical factor for these tools to succeed. Greece and the broader Eastern Mediterranean is an area where, despite the diversity of natural disasters, there is a lack of understanding of the hazard types that people are most concerned with and how they measure against other groups of hazards (i.e., geophysical). This work uses an online survey targeting Greek people, aiming to provide a better understanding of their perception of different natural hazards. Statistical results show that people consider climate-related hazards less dangerous and likely to occur than earthquakes, which occur often as zero-impact events. Laymen may thus underestimate certain risks, which may inhibit appropriate preparation. Disaster experience was found to increase threat perceptions and to motivate preparedness. However, in what concerns climate-related hazards, the effect of experience may fade out over time. Awareness activities were found to associate with higher emergency response efficacy. Males exhibit lower risk perception and higher coping appraisals. However, prioritization of risks is almost identical between genders. Implications for risk management are discussed.

Floods are still a significant threat to people, despite of the considerable developments in forecasting, management, defensive, and rescue works. In the near future, climate and societal changes as both urbanization of flood prone areas and individual dangerous behaviors could increase flood fatalities. This paper analyzes flood mortality in eight countries using a 39-year database (1980−2018) named EUFF (EUropean Flood Fatalities), which was built using documentary sources. The narratives of fatalities were investigated and standardized in the database reporting the details of the events. The entire dataset shows a stable trend on flood fatalities, despite the existence of individual increasing (Greece, Italy, and South France) and decreasing (Turkey and Catalonia) trends. The 2466 fatalities were mainly males, aged between 30−49 years and the majority of them happened outdoor. Most often people were dragged by water/mud when travelling by motor vehicles. Some cases of hazardous behaviors, such as fording rivers, were also detected. The primary cause of death was drowning, followed by heart attack. This work contributes to understand the human−flood interaction that caused fatalities. The changes in society’s vulnerability highlighted throughout this study contribute to manage future risks, to improve people protection actions, and to reduce risk behaviors.