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Abstract Context The increase and global dissemination of antibiotic resistance limit the use of antibiotics to prevent and treat infections. Implementing antibiotic stewardship programs guided by local data on prescription profiles is a useful strategy to reduce the burden of antibiotic resistance. The aim was to determine the prevalence of antibiotic use and guideline compliance at Luang Prabang provincial hospital, Lao PDR. Methods A point prevalence survey of antibiotics was conducted among hospitalized patients admitted to Luang Prabang hospital (204 beds) in Lao PDR on May 25, 2023. All patients presenting at 8:00 AM were eligible. Sociodemographic data, indications for antibiotic use, and antibiotic prescriptions were collected from medical records using a paper-based questionnaire and entered into an electronic platform following WHO methodology. The prevalence of antibiotic use was determined. Results Out of the 102 patients included, 60(58.8%) were undergoing antibiotic treatment, of which 33(55.0%) received combination therapy, and 7(10.5%) had two indications for antibiotic use. The highest prevalence was in the surgical ward (14/15, 93%) followed by general paediatrics (18/27, 67%). Out of the 100 antibiotic prescriptions, 47(47%) were for community-acquired infections, 26(26%) for surgical prophylaxis, 13(13%) for hospital-acquired infections and 5(5%) for medical prophylaxis. Twenty(20%) antibiotics were prescribed for obstetrics and gynaecology prophylaxis, 17(17%) for intra-abdominal infections, and 10(10.0%) for pneumonia treatment as well as bone, and joint infections. The main antibiotics prescribed were ceftriaxone 36(34.6%), metronidazole 18(17.3%), ampicillin 8(7.7%), and gentamicin 8(7.7%). Only 2(3%) samples were sent to the laboratory, one of which showed a positive culture for Escherichia coli Extended Spectrum β-Lactamase. According to the WHO Access Watch and Reserve classification, 55(52.9%) molecules belonged to the Access category, 47(49.1%) to the Watch category, and none to the Reserve category. Only 14.9% of antibiotic prescriptions were fully compliant with current guidelines. Conclusion This study indicated a significant prevalence of antibiotic use and a very low compliance with guidelines at Luang Prabang provincial hospital, Lao PDR. This highlights an urgent need for comprehensive strategies at all levels to optimize antibiotic use in hospitals, emphasizing diagnostic improvements, and continued research to address the factors driving this excessive antibiotic usage and improve adherence to guidelines.

Abstract Background Togo's National Malaria Control Programme has initiated an active home-based malaria management model for all age groups in rural areas of Bassar Health District. This report describes the model, reports its main results, and determines the factors associated with positive rapid diagnostic test results. Methods From 2014 to 2017, in three peripheral care units of Bassar Health District (Binaparba, Nangbani, and Baghan), community health workers visited residents' homes weekly to identify patients with malaria symptoms, perform rapid diagnostic tests in symptomatic patients, and give medication to positive cases. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to determine the factors associated with positive tests. Results The study covered 11,337 people (817 in 2014, 1804 in 2015, 2638 in 2016, and 6078 in 2017). The overall mean age was 18 years (95% CI 5–29; min–max: 0–112 years). The median age was 10 years (SD: 16.9). The proportions of people tested positive were 75.3% in Binaparba, 77.4% in Nangbani, and 56.6% in Baghan. The 5–10 age group was the most affected category (24.2% positive tests). Positive tests were more frequent during the rainy than during the dry season (62 vs. 38%) and the probability of positive test was 1.76 times higher during the rainy than during the dry season (adjusted OR = 1.74; 95% CI 1.60–1.90). A fever (37.5 °C or higher) increased significantly the probability of positive test (adjusted OR = 2.19; 95% CI 1.89–2.54). The risk of positive test was 1.89 times higher in passive than in active malaria detection (adjusted OR = 1.89; 95% CI 1.73–2.0). Conclusions This novel experimental community and home-based malaria management in Togo suggested that active detection of malaria cases is feasible within 24 h, which allows rapid treatments before progression to often-fatal complications. This PECADOM + program will help Togo's National Malaria Control Programme reduce malaria morbidity and mortality in remote and hard-to-reach communities.

Abstract The transmission risk of SARS-CoV-2 within hospitals can exceed that in the general community because of more frequent close proximity interactions (CPIs). However, epidemic risk across wards is still poorly described. We measured CPIs directly using wearable sensors given to all present in a clinical ward over a 36-h period, across 15 wards in three hospitals in April-June 2020. Data were collected from 2114 participants and combined with a simple transmission model describing the arrival of a single index case to the ward to estimate the risk of an outbreak. Estimated epidemic risk ranged four-fold, from 0.12 secondary infections per day in an adult emergency to 0.49 per day in general paediatrics. The risk presented by an index case in a patient varied 20-fold across wards. Using simulation, we assessed the potential impact on outbreak risk of targeting the most connected individuals for prevention. We found that targeting those with the highest cumulative contact hours was most impactful (20% reduction for 5% of the population targeted), and on average resources were better spent targeting patients. This study reveals patterns of interactions between individuals in hospital during a pandemic and opens new routes for research into airborne nosocomial risk.

Abstract Objectives In most African countries, confirmed COVID-19 case counts underestimate the number of new SARS-CoV-2 infection cases. We propose a multiplying factor to approximate the number of biologically probable new infections from the number of confirmed cases. Methods Each of the first thousand suspect (or alert) cases recorded in South Kivu (DRC) between 29 March and 29 November 2020 underwent a RT-PCR test and an IgM and IgG serology. A latent class model and a Bayesian inference method were used to estimate (i) the incidence proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection using RT-PCR and IgM test results, (ii) the prevalence using RT-PCR, IgM and IgG test results; and, (iii) the multiplying factor (ratio of the incidence proportion on the proportion of confirmed –RT-PCR+– cases). Results Among 933 alert cases with complete data, 218 (23%) were RT-PCR+; 434 (47%) IgM+; 464 (~ 50%) RT-PCR+, IgM+, or both; and 647 (69%) either IgG + or IgM+. The incidence proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection was estimated at 58% (95% credibility interval: 51.8–64), its prevalence at 72.83% (65.68–77.89), and the multiplying factor at 2.42 (1.95–3.01). Conclusions In monitoring the pandemic dynamics, the number of biologically probable cases is also useful. The multiplying factor helps approximating it.

Introduction Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has become a significant public health threat. Without any interventions, it has been modelled that AMR will account for an estimated 10 million deaths annually by 2050, this mainly affects low/middle-income countries. AMR has a systemic negative perspective affecting the overall healthcare system down to the patient’s personal outcome. In response to this issue, the WHO urged countries to provide antimicrobial stewardship programmes (ASPs). ASPs in hospitals are a vital component of national action plans for AMR, and have been shown to significantly reduce AMR, in particular in low-income countries such as Madagascar.As part of an ASP, AMR surveillance provides essential information needed to guide medical practice. We developed an AMR surveillance tool—Technique de Surveillance Actualisée de la Résistance aux Antimicrobiens (TSARA)—with the support of the Mérieux Foundation. TSARA combines bacteriological and clinical information to provide a better understanding of the scope and the effects of AMR in Madagascar, where no such surveillance tool exists.Methods and analysis A prospective, observational, hospital-based study was carried out for data collection using a standardised data collection tool, called TSARA deployed in 2023 in 10 hospitals in Madagascar participating in the national Malagasy laboratory network (Réseau des Laboratoires à Madagascar (RESAMAD)). Any hospitalised patient where the clinician decided to take a bacterial sample is included. As a prospective study, individual isolate-level data and antimicrobial susceptibility information on pathogens were collected routinely from the bacteriology laboratory and compiled with clinical information retrieved from face-to-face interviews with the patient and completed using medical records where necessary. Analysis of the local ecology, resistance rates and antibiotic prescription patterns were collected.Ethics and dissemination This protocol obtained ethical approval from the Malagasy Ethical Committee n°07-MSANP/SG/AGMED/CNPV/CERBM on 24 January 2023. Findings generated were shared with national health stakeholders, microbiologists, members of the RESAMAD network and the Malagasy academic society of infectious diseases.

Abstract Detailed information are lacking on influenza transmissibility in hospital although clusters are regularly reported. In this pilot study, our goal was to estimate the transmission rate of H3N2 2012-influenza, among patients and health care professionals in a short-term Acute Care for the Elderly Unit by using a stochastic approach and a simple susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed model. Transmission parameters were derived from documented individual contact data collected by Radio Frequency IDentification technology at the epidemic peak. From our model, nurses appeared to transmit infection to a patient more frequently with a transmission rate of 1.04 per day on average compared to 0.38 from medical doctors. This transmission rate was 0.34 between nurses. These results, even obtained in this specific context, might give a relevant insight of the influenza dynamics in hospitals and will help to improve and to target control measures for preventing nosocomial transmission of influenza. The investigation of nosocomial transmission of SARS-COV-2 might gain from similar approaches.

Objectives: We determined the pulse oximetry benefit in pediatric pneumonia mortality risk stratification and chest-indrawing pneumonia in-hospital mortality risk factors. Methods: We report the characteristics and in-hospital pneumonia-related mortality of children aged 2-59 months who were included in the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations dataset. We developed multivariable logistic regression models of chest-indrawing pneumonia to identify mortality risk factors. Results: Among 285,839 children, 164,244 (57.5%) from hospital-based studies were included. Pneumonia case fatality risk (CFR) without pulse oximetry measurement was higher than with measurement (5.8%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.6-5.9% vs 2.1%, 95% CI 1.9-2.4%). One in five children with chest-indrawing pneumonia was hypoxemic (19.7%, 95% CI 19.0-20.4%), and the hypoxemic CFR was 10.3% (95% CI 9.1-11.5%). Other mortality risk factors were younger age (either 2-5 months [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 9.94, 95% CI 6.67-14.84] or 6-11 months [aOR 2.67, 95% CI 1.71-4.16]), moderate malnutrition (aOR 2.41, 95% CI 1.87-3.09), and female sex (aOR 1.82, 95% CI 1.43-2.32). Conclusion: Children with a pulse oximetry measurement had a lower CFR. Many children hospitalized with chest-indrawing pneumonia were hypoxemic and one in 10 died. Young age and moderate malnutrition were risk factors for in-hospital chest-indrawing pneumonia-related mortality. Pulse oximetry should be integrated in pneumonia hospital care for children under 5 years.

Abstract Background In France, it is recommended that girls and women aged 14–23 are vaccinated against the human papillomavirus (HPV). However, French women’s knowledge of and attitude towards the vaccine has been little studied. Methods Thirty-nine general practitioners, representative of those working in the large Rhône-Alpes region, offered a self-administered questionnaire on cervical cancer (CC) prevention to all 18–65 year-old women who came for consultation during June and July 2008. In addition, semi-structured interviews were undertaken with a sample of those who had daughters aged 14–18. Results Of the 1,478 women who completed the questionnaire, only 16.9% mentioned HPV as the cause of CC, even though 76.2% knew of the vaccine. 210 women had daughters aged 14–18, and 32 were interviewed. Compared with the wider group, more of these women were aware of the HPV vaccine (91.4%). 44.8% knew the target population and 17.1% the recommended ages for vaccination. 54.3% favoured HPV vaccination; 37.2% were undecided and only 0.9% were opposed. The main barrier to acceptance was the recency of the vaccine’s introduction and concern about possible side effects (54.9%); 14.1% preferred to rely on their GP’s decision. Factors associated with acceptance of the HPV vaccine were having previously vaccinated a child against pneumococcus (OR=3.28 [1.32-8.11]) and knowing the target population for HPV vaccination (OR=2.12 [1.15-3.90]). Knowing the recommended frequency of Papanicolaou smear testing (Pap test) screening was associated with lower acceptance (OR=0.32 [0.13-0.82]). Conclusions Few mothers are opposed to HPV vaccination. Factors associated with acceptability were knowledge about the vaccine, acceptance of other vaccines and, unexpectedly, lack of knowledge about the recommended frequency of Pap testing. On multivariate analysis, compliance with recommendations for Pap test screening and socioeconomic factors had no effect on views about HPV vaccination. Given that concern about possible side effects is the major barrier to wider acceptance of the HPV vaccine in France, GPs have a key role in providing information.

Abstract Background Compliance with official recommendations can be assessed by evaluating vaccination coverage (VC) in populations. The main objective of our study was to assess VC of adults against diphtheria, tetanus, poliomyelitis and pertussis (dTPaP) according to age. The second objective was to explore if vaccination status could be confirmed by documentation. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted in 680 adults consulting for biological examination in private laboratories in Lyon (France) to evaluate VC for diphtheria, tetanus, poliomyelitis and pertussis (dTPaP) and enabled reported vaccinations to be compared with documented, confirmed vaccinations. Results Verification of documented, confirmed vaccinations disclosed VC of 78.7% for tetanus, 63.6% for poliomyelitis, 57.8% for diphtheria and 10.7% for pertussis. Comparison of confirmed and self-reported vaccinations revealed that a large percentage of people who thought that they were vaccinated were not. VC significantly decreased with age for diphtheria and poliomyelitis and did not vary by gender. The VC rate for pertussis has increased since the 2008 recommendations were made. Conclusions The main thrust of this study was to compare reported and confirmed data. A significant percentage of people wrongly believed that they were up to date with their vaccination.

Abstract Background In acute-care hospitals, no evidence of a protective effect of healthcare worker (HCW) vaccination on hospital-acquired influenza (HAI) in patients has been documented. Our study objective was to ascertain the effectiveness of influenza vaccination of HCW on HAI among patients. Methods A nested case-control investigation was implemented in a prospective surveillance study of influenza-like illness (ILI) in a tertiary acute-care university hospital. Cases were patients with virologically-confirmed influenza occurring ≥ 72 h after admission, and controls were patients with ILI presenting during hospitalisation with negative influenza results after nasal swab testing. Four controls per case, matched per influenza season (2004-05, 2005-06 and 2006-07), were randomly selected. Univariate and multivariate conditional logistic regression models were fitted to assess factors associated with HAI among patients. Results In total, among 55 patients analysed, 11 (20%) had laboratory-confirmed HAI. The median HCW vaccination rate in the units was 36%. The median proportion of vaccinated HCW in these units was 11.5% for cases vs. 36.1% for the controls (P = 0.11); 2 (20%) cases and 21 (48%) controls were vaccinated against influenza in the current season (P = 0.16). The proportion of ≥ 35% vaccinated HCW in short-stay units appeared to protect against HAI among patients (odds ratio = 0.07; 95% confidence interval 0.005-0.98), independently of patient age, influenza season and potential influenza source in the units. Conclusions Our observational study indicates a shielding effect of more than 35% of vaccinated HCW on HAI among patients in acute-care units. Investigations, such as controlled clinical trials, are needed to validate the benefits of HCW vaccination on HAI incidence in patients.

Abstract Background The incidence of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) within the first 48 hours of intensive care unit (ICU) stay has been poorly investigated. The objective was to estimate early-onset VAP occurrence in ICUs within 48 hours after admission. Methods We analyzed data from prospective surveillance between 01/01/2001 and 31/12/2009 in 11 ICUs of Lyon hospitals (France). The inclusion criteria were: first ICU admission, not hospitalized before admission, invasive mechanical ventilation during first ICU day, free of antibiotics at admission, and ICU stay ≥ 48 hours. VAP was defined according to a national protocol. Its incidence was the number of events per 1,000 invasive mechanical ventilation-days. The Poisson regression model was fitted from day 2 (D2) to D8 to incident VAP to estimate the expected VAP incidence from D0 to D1 of ICU stay. Results Totally, 367 (10.8%) of 3,387 patients in 45,760 patient-days developed VAP within the first 9 days. The predicted cumulative VAP incidence at D0 and D1 was 5.3 (2.6-9.8) and 8.3 (6.1-11.1), respectively. The predicted cumulative VAP incidence was 23.0 (20.8-25.3) at D8. The proportion of missed VAP within 48 hours from admission was 11% (9%-17%). Conclusions Our study indicates underestimation of early-onset VAP incidence in ICUs, if only VAP occurring ≥ 48 hours are considered to be hospital-acquired. Clinicians should be encouraged to develop a strategy for early detection after ICU admission.

Abstract Background The spread of infectious diseases crucially depends on the pattern of contacts between individuals. Knowledge of these patterns is thus essential to inform models and computational efforts. However, there are few empirical studies available that provide estimates of the number and duration of contacts between social groups. Moreover, their space and time resolutions are limited, so that data are not explicit at the person-to-person level, and the dynamic nature of the contacts is disregarded. In this study, we aimed to assess the role of data-driven dynamic contact patterns between individuals, and in particular of their temporal aspects, in shaping the spread of a simulated epidemic in the population. Methods We considered high-resolution data about face-to-face interactions between the attendees at a conference, obtained from the deployment of an infrastructure based on radiofrequency identification (RFID) devices that assessed mutual face-to-face proximity. The spread of epidemics along these interactions was simulated using an SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model, using both the dynamic network of contacts defined by the collected data, and two aggregated versions of such networks, to assess the role of the data temporal aspects. Results We show that, on the timescales considered, an aggregated network taking into account the daily duration of contacts is a good approximation to the full resolution network, whereas a homogeneous representation that retains only the topology of the contact network fails to reproduce the size of the epidemic. Conclusions These results have important implications for understanding the level of detail needed to correctly inform computational models for the study and management of real epidemics. Please see related article BMC Medicine, 2011, 9:88

Abstract Background During community epidemics, infections may be imported within hospital and transmitted to hospitalized patients. Hospital outbreaks of communicable diseases have been increasingly reported during the last decades and have had significant consequences in terms of patient morbidity, mortality, and associated costs. Quantitative studies are thus needed to estimate the risks of communicable diseases among hospital patients, taking into account the epidemiological process outside, hospital and host-related risk factors of infection and the role of other patients and healthcare workers as sources of infection. Methods We propose a multiplicative hazard regression model to analyze the risk of acquiring a communicable disease by patients at hospital. This model derives from epidemiological data on communicable disease epidemics in the community, hospital ward, patient susceptibility to infection, and exposure of patients to infection at hospital. The model estimates the relative effect of each of these factors on a patient's risk of communicable disease. Results Using individual data on patients and health care workers in a teaching hospital during the 2004-2005 influenza season in Lyon (France), we show the ability of the model to assess the risk of influenza-like illness among hospitalized patients. The significant effects on the risk of influenza-like illness were those of old age, exposure to infectious patients or health care workers, and a stay in a medical care unit. Conclusions The proposed multiplicative hazard regression model could be an interesting epidemiological tool to quantify the risk of communicable disease at hospital during community epidemics and the uncertainty inherent in such quantification. Furthermore, key epidemiological, environmental, host, or exposure factors that influence this risk can be identified.

Abstract Background To efficiently plan appropriate public health interventions during possible epidemics, governments must take into consideration the following factors about the general population: their knowledge of epidemics, their fears of and psychological responses to them, their level of compliance with government measures and their communities' trusted sources of information. However, such surveys among the French general population are rare. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted in 2006 in a representative sample of 600 subjects living in the Rhône-Alpes region (south-east France) to investigate self-reported knowledge about infectious diseases and anxiety generated by epidemic risk with particular reference to avian influenza. Data on reactions to potentially new epidemics and the confidence level in various sources of information were also collected. Results Respondents were most knowledgeable about AIDS, followed by avian influenza. Overall, 75% of respondents had adequate knowledge of avian influenza. The percentage was even higher (88%) among inhabitants of the Ain district, where an avian influenza epidemic had previously been reported. However, 39% expressed anxiety about this disease. In total, 20% of respondents with knowledge about avian influenza stated that they had changed their behaviours during the epizooty. Epidemics were perceived as a real threat by 27% of respondents. In the event of a highly contagious outbreak, the majority of respondents said they would follow the advice given by authorities. The study population expressed a high level of confidence in physicians and scientists, but had strong reservations about politicians, deputies and the media. Conclusions Although the survey was conducted only four months after the avian influenza outbreak, epidemics were not perceived as a major threat by the study population. The results showed that in the event of a highly infectious disease, the population would comply with advice given by public authorities.

Abstract Objective: To determine the factors associated with the nutritional status of children under 5 years of age in Guinea between 2005 and 2018. Design: Data from the 2005, 2012 and 2018 Guinea Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) were used for this study. Three anthropometric indicators (stunting, underweight and wasting) were assessed according to the 2006 WHO Child Growth Standards and analysed according to the year, the characteristics of the household, the child and the mother using multivariate logistic regression. Setting: Data were collected in the capital Conakry and in the seven administrative regions of Guinea. Participants: The study included children under 5 years of age for whom height and weight were available: 2765 (DHS-2005), 3220 (DHS-2012) and 3551 (DHS-2018). Results: Analysis of the data from the three surveys showed that children living in rural areas were more likely to be stunted than children living in urban areas (OR = 1·32, 95 % CI (1·08, 1·62)). Similarly, the children from middle, poor and the poorest households were more likely to be stunted and underweight than children from richest households. The chance to stunting increased with age in the first 3 years. However, the chance to wasting decreased with age. Children in all age groups were more likely of being underweight. Children of thin mothers were more likely to be both wasted (OR = 2·0, 95 % CI (1·5, 2·6)) and underweight (OR = 1·9, 95 % CI (1·5, 2·3)). Conclusion: The implementation of targeted interventions adapted to the observed disparities could considerably improve the nutritional status of children and mothers.

IntroductionDevelopment of Robust and Innovative Vaccine Effectiveness (DRIVE) was a European public–private partnership (PPP) that aimed to provide annual, brand-specific estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) for regulatory and public health purposes. DRIVE was launched in 2017 under the umbrella of the Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI) and conducted IVE studies from its pilot season in 2017–2018 to its final season in 2021–2022.MethodsIn 2021–2022, DRIVE conducted four primary care-based test-negative design (TND) studies (Austria, Italy, Iceland, and England; involving >1,000 general practitioners), nine hospital-based TND studies (France, Iceland, Italy, Romania, and Spain, for a total of 21 hospitals), and one population-based cohort study in Finland. In the TND studies, patients with influenza-like illness (primary care) or severe acute respiratory infection (hospital) were enrolled, and laboratory tested for influenza using RT-PCR. Study contributor-specific IVE was calculated using logistic regression, adjusting for age, sex, and calendar time, and pooled by meta-analysis.ResultsIn 2021–2022, pooled confounder-adjusted influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) estimates against laboratory-confirmed influenza (LCI) overall and per type and subtype/lineage was produced, albeit with wide confidence intervals (CI). The limited circulation of influenza in Europe did not allow the network to reach the optimal sample size to produce precise IVE estimates for all the brands included. The most significant IVE estimates were 76% (95% CI 23%−93%) for any vaccine and 81% (22%−95%) for Vaxigrip Tetra in adults ≥65 years old and 64% (25%−83%) for Fluenz Tetra in children (TND primary care setting), 85% (12%−97%) for any vaccine in adults 18–64 years (TND hospital setting), and 38% (1%−62%) in children 6 months−6 years (population-based cohort, mixed setting).DiscussionOver five seasons, DRIVE collected data on >35,000 patients, more than 60 variables, and 13 influenza vaccines. DRIVE demonstrated that estimating brand-specific IVE across Europe is possible, but achieving sufficient sample size to obtain precise estimates for all relevant stratifications remains a challenge. Finally, DRIVE's network of study contributors and lessons learned have greatly contributed to the development of the COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness platform COVIDRIVE.

Excessive inflammatory response has been implicated in severe respiratory forms of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Trace elements such as zinc, selenium, and copper are known to modulate inflammation and immunity. This study aimed to assess the relationships between antioxidant vitamins and mineral trace elements levels as well as COVID-19 severity in older adults hospitalized. In this observational retrospective cohort study, the levels of zinc, selenium, copper, vitamin A, β-carotene, and vitamin E were measured in 94 patients within the first 15 days of hospitalization. The outcomes were in-hospital mortality secondary to COVID-19 or severe COVID-19. A logistic regression analysis was conducted to test whether the levels of vitamins and minerals were independently associated with severity. In this cohort (average age of 78 years), severe forms (46%) were associated with lower zinc (p = 0.012) and β-carotene (p < 0.001) concentrations, and in-hospital mortality (15%) was associated with lower zinc (p = 0.009), selenium (p = 0.014), vitamin A (p = 0.001), and β-carotene (p = 0.002) concentrations. In regression analysis, severe forms remained independently associated with lower zinc (aOR 2.13, p = 0.018) concentrations, and death was associated with lower vitamin A (aOR = 0.165, p = 0.021) concentrations. Low plasma concentrations of zinc and vitamin A were associated with poor prognosis in older people hospitalized with COVID-19.

Influenza vaccine adherence remains low. Communication of virological diagnosis to adults hospitalized with influenza-like illness (ILI) could improve their willingness to be subsequently vaccinated. We prospectively assessed, in adults hospitalized with ILI in six French university hospitals, their willingness to be vaccinated against influenza in the subsequent season, both before and after the communication of RT-PCR Influenza laboratory result; we identified then the determinants associated with the willingness to be vaccinated. A total of 309 patients were included during the 2012–2013 and 2013–2014 influenza seasons; 43.8% reported being vaccinated against influenza for the current season; before communication of influenza laboratory results, 65.1% reported willingness to be vaccinated during the subsequent season. Influenza was virologically confirmed in 103 patients (33.3%). The rate of vaccine willingness increased to 70.4% (p = .02) after communication of influenza laboratory results. Factors independently associated with the willingness to be vaccinated were the perception of influenza vaccine benefits (adjusted relative risk (aRR): 1.06, 95%CI 1.02–1.10), cues to action (aRR: 1.08, 95%CI 1.03–1.12), current season influenza vaccination (aRR: 1.38, 95%CI 1.20–1.59) and communication of a positive influenza laboratory result (aRR: 1.18, 95%CI 1.03–1.34). This last was associated with the willingness to be vaccinated only in the subpopulation of patients not vaccinated (aRR: 1.53, 95%CI 1.19–1.96). In patients hospitalized with ILI, communication of a positive influenza diagnostic led to a better appreciation of the disease’s severity and increased the willingness to be vaccinated. This approach might be particularly beneficial in patients who do not have a history of influenza vaccination.

The major economic and health consequences of COVID-19 called for various protective measures and mass vaccination campaigns. A previsional model was used to predict the future impacts of various measure combinations on COVID-19 mortality over a 400-day period in France. Calibrated on previous national hospitalization and mortality data, an agent-based epidemiological model was used to predict individual and combined effects of booster doses, vaccination of refractory adults, and vaccination of children, according to infection severity, immunity waning, and graded non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Assuming a 1.5 hospitalization hazard ratio and rapid immunity waning, booster doses would reduce COVID-19-related deaths by 50–70% with intensive NPIs and 93% with moderate NPIs. Vaccination of initially-refractory adults or children ≥5 years would half the number of deaths whatever the infection severity or degree of immunity waning. Assuming a 1.5 hospitalization hazard ratio, rapid immunity waning, moderate NPIs and booster doses, vaccinating children ≥12 years, ≥5 years, and ≥6 months would result in 6212, 3084, and 3018 deaths, respectively (vs. 87,552, 64,002, and 48,954 deaths without booster, respectively). In the same conditions, deaths would be 2696 if all adults and children ≥12 years were vaccinated and 2606 if all adults and children ≥6 months were vaccinated (vs. 11,404 and 3624 without booster, respectively). The model dealt successfully with single measures or complex combinations. It can help choosing them according to future epidemic features, vaccination extensions, and population immune status.

Background: Non-AIDS defining cancers (NADC) are an important cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV-positive individuals. Using data from a large international cohort of HIV-positive individuals, we described the incidence of NADC from 2004-2010, and described subsequent mortality and predictors of these.Methods: Individuals were followed from 1st January 2004/enrolment in study, until the earliest of a new NADC, 1st February 2010, death or six months after the patient's last visit. Incidence rates were estimated for each year of follow-up, overall and stratified by gender, age and mode of HIV acquisition. Cumulative risk of mortality following NADC diagnosis was summarised using Kaplan-Meier methods, with follow-up for these analyses from the date of NADC diagnosis until the patient's death, 1st February 2010 or 6 months after the patient's last visit. Factors associated with mortality following NADC diagnosis were identified using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression.Results: Over 176,775 person-years (PY), 880 (2.1%) patients developed a new NADC (incidence: 4.98/1000PY [95% confidence interval 4.65, 5.31]). Over a third of these patients (327, 37.2%) had died by 1st February 2010. Time trends for lung cancer, anal cancer and Hodgkin's lymphoma were broadly consistent. Kaplan-Meier cumulative mortality estimates at 1, 3 and 5 years after NADC diagnosis were 28.2% [95% CI 25.1-31.2], 42.0% [38.2-45.8] and 47.3% [42.4-52.2], respectively. Significant predictors of poorer survival after diagnosis of NADC were lung cancer (compared to other cancer types), male gender, non-white ethnicity, and smoking status. Later year of diagnosis and higher CD4 count at NADC diagnosis were associated with improved survival. The incidence of NADC remained stable over the period 2004-2010 in this large observational cohort.Conclusions: The prognosis after diagnosis of NADC, in particular lung cancer and disseminated cancer, is poor but has improved somewhat over time. Modifiable risk factors, such as smoking and low CD4 counts, were associated with mortality following a diagnosis of NADC. © 2013 Worm et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.