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Mangrove forests are a biodiverse ecosystem known for a wide variety of crucial ecological services, including carbon sequestration, coastal erosion control, and prevention of saltwater intrusion. Given the ecological importance of mangrove forests, a comprehensive and up-to-date mangrove extent mapping at broad geographic scales is needed to define mangrove forest changes, assess their implications, and support restoration activities and decision making. The main objective of this study is to evaluate mangrove classifications derived from a combination of Landsat-8 OLI, Sentinel-2, and Sentinel-1 observations using a random forest (RF) machine learning (ML) algorithm to identify the best approach for monitoring Guyana’s mangrove forests on an annual basis. Algorithm accuracy was tested using high-resolution planet imagery in Collect Earth Online. Results varied widely across the different combinations of input data (overall accuracy, 88–95%; producer’s accuracy for mangroves, 50–87%; user’s accuracy for mangroves, 13–69%). The combined optical–radar classification demonstrated the best performance with an overall accuracy of 95%. Area estimates of mangrove extent ranged from 908.4 to 3645.0 hectares. A ground-based validation exercise confirmed the extent of several large, previously undocumented areas of mangrove forest loss. The results establish that a data fusion approach combining optical and radar data performs marginally better than optical-only approaches to mangrove classification. This ML approach, which leverages free and open data and a cloud-based analytics platform, can be applied to mapping other areas of mangrove forests in Guyana. This approach can also support the operational monitoring of mangrove restoration areas managed by Guyana’s National Agricultural and Research Extension Institute (NAREI).

Increased tourism in Belize over the last decade and the growth of the local population have led to coastal development and infrastructure expansion. Land use alteration and anthropogenic activity may change the sediment and nutrient loads in coastal systems, which can negatively affect ecosystems via mechanisms such as reducing photosynthetically active radiation fields, smothering sessile habitats, and stimulating eutrophication events. Accurate monitoring and prediction of water quality parameters such as Total Suspended Sediments (TSS), are essential in order to understand the influence of land-based changes, climate, and human activities on the coastal systems and devise strategies to mitigate negative impacts. This study implements machine learning algorithms such as Random Forests (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), and Deep Neural Networks (DNN) to estimate TSS using Sentinel-2 reflectance data in the Belize Coastal Lagoon (BCL) and validates the results using TSS data collected in situ. DNN performed the best and estimated TSS with a testing R2 of 0.89. Time-series analysis was also performed on the BCL’s TSS trends using Bayesian Changepoint Detection (BCD) methods to flag anomalously high TSS spatio-temporally, which may be caused by dredging events. Having such a framework can ease the near-real-time monitoring of water quality in Belize, help track the TSS dynamics for anomalies, and aid in meeting and maintaining the sustainable goals for Belize.

Land use and land cover (LULC) change can have detrimental effects on water quality. In Belize, agricultural expansion creates the risk of increased sediment load and excess nutrients in runoff water, while deforestation removes potential infiltration sites for this outflow. Climate change and evolving precipitation rates can intensify the quantity of runoff, further enabling the flow of sediments and excess nutrients out to the lagoon surrounding the Belize Barrier Reef Reserve System (BBRRS). This study sought to estimate potential impacts on future water quality in Belize by first modeling LULC change through 2090 across Belize’s major watersheds based on observed trends from 2008 to 2018. Those LULC projections were subsequently combined with soil type data, elevation, and precipitation rates into a hydrologic model to produce runoff flow estimates as a proxy for water quality. The two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP-6) scenarios employed in the study represented bookend climate change scenarios, and both indicated generally lower precipitation rates in Belize over the next century due to climate change. The most extreme scenario predicted a 46% decrease in precipitation. When holding LULC change constant, these climate scenarios projected a decrease in runoff, suggesting a positive relationship between precipitation and runoff. In contrast with the northern watersheds, the southern watersheds are projected to experience greater decreases in annual rainfall and runoff by 2090. When holding climate constant, runoff increased by approximately 2.8% in the Conservation-focused LULC scenario by 2090, which was 28% lower than the Business as Usual scenario, and 42% lower than the Development scenario. The study’s integration of CMIP6 climate scenarios into LULC and hydrologic modeling provides a more holistic view of the future of Belize’s water quality and supports the long-term planning efforts of local decision-making agencies.