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Recent observations revealed the existence of ice slabs and aquifers on the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). Both affect the ice sheet's hydrology: ice slabs facilitate runoff and aquifers modulate drainage to the bed. However, their climatic drivers and history remain unclear, as most observations cover only two decades. Here, we present a model simulation of the evolution of GrIS ice slabs and aquifers (1980–2020), evaluated using radar measurements. The results show that accumulation, melt and rain rates are good predictors for the spatial distribution of ice slabs and aquifers. Both features were already present in the late 1980s, and their extent remained relatively constant until the beginning of this century, after which increased melt led to their expansion. We show that almost any transect from the coast to the ice-sheet interior will cross either an ice slab region, or an aquifer, or both.

Despite in-situ observations of perennial firn aquifers (PFAs) at specific locations of the Antarctic ice sheet, a comprehensive continent-wide mapping of PFA distribution is currently lacking. We present an estimate of their distribution across Antarctica in the form of a probability assessment using a Monte Carlo technique. Our approach involves a novel methodology that combines observations from Sentinel-1 and Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) with output from a regional climate model. To evaluate our method, we conduct an extensive comparison with Operation Ice Bridge observations from the Greenland Ice Sheet. Application to Antarctica reveals high PFA probabilities in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP), particularly along its northern, northwestern, and western coastlines, as well as on the Wilkins, Müller, and George VI ice shelves. Outside the AP, PFA probability is low, except for some locations with marginally higher probabilities, such as on the Abbot, Totten, and Shackleton ice shelves.

The variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets occurs on various timescales and is important for projections of sea level rise; however, there are substantial uncertainties concerning future ice-sheet mass changes. In this Review, we explore the degree to which short-term fluctuations and extreme glaciological events reflect the ice sheets’ long-term evolution and response to ongoing climate change. Short-term (decadal or shorter) variations in atmospheric or oceanic conditions can trigger amplifying feedbacks that increase the sensitivity of ice sheets to climate change. For example, variability in ocean-induced and atmosphere-induced melting can trigger ice thinning, retreat and/or collapse of ice shelves, grounding-line retreat, and ice flow acceleration. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is especially prone to increased melting and ice sheet collapse from warm ocean currents, which could be accentuated with increased climate variability. In Greenland both high and low melt anomalies have been observed since 2012, highlighting the influence of increased interannual climate variability on extreme glaciological events and ice sheet evolution. Failing to adequately account for such variability can result in biased projections of multi-decadal ice mass loss. Therefore, future research should aim to improve climate and ocean observations and models, and develop sophisticated ice sheet models that are directly constrained by observational records and can capture ice dynamical changes across various timescales.

Firn on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) buffers meltwater, and has a variable thickness, complicating observations of volume change to mass change. In this study, we use a firn model (IMAU-FDM v1.2G) forced by a regional climate model (RACMO2.3p2) to investigate how the GrIS firn layer thickness and pore space have evolved since 1958 in response to variability in the large-scale atmospheric circulation. On interannual timescales, the firn layer thickness and pore space show a spatially heterogeneous response to variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Notably, a stronger NAO following the record warm summer of 2012 led the firn layer in the south and east of the ice sheet to regain thickness and pore space after a period of thinning and reduced pore space. In the southwest, a decrease in melt dominated after 2012, whereas in the east, the main driver was an increase in snow accumulation. At the same time, the firn in the northwestern ice sheet continued to lose pore space. The NAO also varies on intra-annual timescales, being typically stronger in winter than in summer. This impacts the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in GrIS firn thickness and pore space. In the wet southeastern GrIS, most of the snow accumulates during the winter, when melting and densification are relatively weak, leading to a large seasonal cycle in thickness and pore space. The opposite occurs in other regions, where snowfall peaks in summer or autumn. This dampens the seasonal amplitude of firn thickness and pore space.

We use satellite and airborne altimetry to estimate annual mass changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet. We estimate ice loss corresponding to a sea-level rise of 6.9 ± 0.4 mm from April 2011 to April 2020, with a highest annual ice loss rate of 1.4 mm/yr sea-level equivalent from April 2019 to April 2020. On a regional scale, our annual mass loss timeseries reveals 10–15 m/yr dynamic thickening at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbræ from April 2016 to April 2018, followed by a return to dynamic thinning. We observe contrasting patterns of mass loss acceleration in different basins across the ice sheet and suggest that these spatiotemporal trends could be useful for calibrating and validating prognostic ice sheet models. In addition to resolving the spatial and temporal fingerprint of Greenland's recent ice loss, these mass loss grids are key for partitioning contemporary elastic vertical land motion from longer-term glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) trends at GPS stations around the ice sheet. Our ice-loss product results in a significantly different GIA interpretation from a previous ice-loss product.

Ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest sources of contemporary sea-level rise (SLR). While process-based models place timescales on Greenland’s deglaciation, their confidence is obscured by model shortcomings including imprecise atmospheric and oceanic couplings. Here, we present a complementary approach resolving ice sheet disequilibrium with climate constrained by satellite-derived bare-ice extent, tidewater sector ice flow discharge and surface mass balance data. We find that Greenland ice imbalance with the recent (2000–2019) climate commits at least 274 ± 68 mm SLR from 59 ± 15 × 10³ km² ice retreat, equivalent to 3.3 ± 0.9% volume loss, regardless of twenty-first-century climate pathways. This is a result of increasing mass turnover from precipitation, ice flow discharge and meltwater run-off. The high-melt year of 2012 applied in perpetuity yields an ice loss commitment of 782 ± 135 mm SLR, serving as an ominous prognosis for Greenland’s trajectory through a twenty-first century of warming.

Mass balance assessments of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) are highly sensitive to changes in firn thickness, causing substantial disagreement in estimates of its contribution to sea-level. To better constrain the uncertainty in recent firn thickness changes, we develop an ensemble of 54 model scenarios of firn evolution between 1992 and 2017. Using statistical emulation of firn-densification models, we quantify the impact of firn compaction formulation, differing climatic forcing, and surface snow density on firn thickness evolution. At basin scales, the ensemble uncertainty in firn thickness change ranges between 0.2 and 1.0 cm yr−1 (15%–300% relative uncertainty), with the choice of climate forcing having the largest influence on the spread. Our results show the regions of the ice sheet where unexplained discrepancies exist between observed elevation changes and an extensive set of modeled firn thickness changes estimates, marking an important step toward more accurately constraining ice sheet mass balance.

Surface melt is an important process for the stability of ice shelves, and therewith the Antarctic ice sheet. In Antarctica, absorption of solar radiation is mostly the largest energy source for surface melt, which is further enhanced by the snowmelt-albedo feedback (SMAF): Refrozen snow has a lower albedo than new snow, which causes it to absorb more solar radiation, further increasing the energy available for surface melt. This feedback has previously been shown to increase surface melt by approximately a factor of 2.5 at Neumayer Station in East Antarctica. In this study, we use a regional climate model to quantify SMAF for the entire Antarctic ice sheet. We find that it is most effective on ice shelves in East Antarctica, and is less important in the Antarctic Peninsula and on the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves. We identify a relationship between SMAF and average summer 2 m air temperatures, and find that SMAF is most important around 265 ± 2 K. On a subseasonal scale, we identify several parameters that contribute to SMAF: the length of dry periods, the time between significant snowfall events and snowmelt events, and prevailing temperatures. We then apply the same temperature dependency of SMAF to the Greenland ice sheet and find that it is potentially active in a narrow band around the ice sheet, and finally discuss how the importance of SMAF could change in a warming climate.

Under anticipated future warming, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) will pass a threshold when meltwater runoff exceeds the accumulation of snow, resulting in a negative surface mass balance (SMB < 0) and sustained mass loss. Here, we dynamically and statistically downscale the outputs of an Earth system model to 1 km resolution to infer that a Greenland near-surface atmospheric warming of 4.5 ± 0.3°C—relative to preindustrial—is required for GrIS SMB to become persistently negative. Climate models from CMIP5 and CMIP6 translate this regional temperature change to a global warming threshold of 2.7 ± 0.2°C. Under a high-end warming scenario, this threshold may be reached around 2055, while for a strong mitigation scenario it will likely not be passed. Depending on the emissions scenario taken, our method estimates 6–13 cm sea level rise from GrIS SMB by the year 2100.

We present the surface energy balance (SEB) of the western Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) using an energy balance model forced with hourly observations from nine automatic weather stations (AWSs) along two transects: the Kangerlussuaq (K) transect with seven AWSs in the southwest and the Thule (T) transect with two AWSs in the northwest. Modeled and observed surface temperatures for non-melting conditions agree well with RMSEs of 1.1– 1.6 K, while reasonable agreement is found between modeled and observed 10 d cumulative ice melt. Absorbed shortwave radiation (Snet) is the main energy source for melting (M), followed by the sensible heat flux (Qh). The multiyear average seasonal cycle of SEB components shows that Snet and M peak in July at all AWSs. The turbulent fluxes of sensible (Qh) and latent heat (Ql) decrease significantly with elevation, and the latter becomes negative at higher elevations, partly offsetting Qh. Average June, July and August (JJA) albedo values are < 0.6 for stations below 1000 m a.s.l. and > 0.7 for the higher stations. The nearsurface climate variables and surface energy fluxes from reanalysis products ERA-Interim, ERA5 and the regional climate model RACMO2.3 were compared to the AWS values. The newer ERA5 product only significantly improves ERAInterim for albedo. The regional model RACMO2.3, which has higher resolution (5.5 km) and a dedicated snow/ice module, unsurprisingly outperforms the reanalyses for (near- )surface climate variables, but the reanalyses are indispensable in detecting dependencies of west Greenland climate and melt on large-scale circulation variability. We correlate ERA5 with the AWS data to show a significant positive correlation of western GrIS summer surface temperature and melt with the Greenland Blocking Index (GBI) and weaker and opposite correlations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This analysis may further help to explain melting patterns on the western GrIS from the perspective of circulation an

Compared to other Arctic ice masses, Svalbard glaciers are low-elevated with flat interior accumulation areas, resulting in a marked peak in their current hypsometry (area-elevation distribution) at ~450 m above sea level. Since summer melt consistently exceeds winter snowfall, these low-lying glaciers can only survive by refreezing a considerable fraction of surface melt and rain in the porous firn layer covering their accumulation zones. We use a high-resolution climate model to show that modest atmospheric warming in the mid-1980s forced the firn zone to retreat upward by ~100 m to coincide with the hypsometry peak. This led to a rapid areal reduction of firn cover available for refreezing, and strongly increased runoff from dark, bare ice areas, amplifying mass loss from all elevations. As the firn line fluctuates around the hypsometry peak in the current climate, Svalbard glaciers will continue to lose mass and show high sensitivity to temperature perturbations., Mathematical Geodesy and Positioning, Physical and Space Geodesy