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Bat-borne pathogens are a threat to global health and in recent history have had major impacts on human morbidity and mortality. Examples include diseases such as rabies, Nipah virus encephalitis, and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Climate change may exacerbate the emergence of bat-borne pathogens by affecting the ecology of bats in tropical ecosystems. Here, we report the impacts of climate change on the distributional ecology of the common vampire bat Desmodus rotundus across the last century. Our retrospective analysis revealed a positive relationship between changes in climate and the northern expansion of the distribution of D. rotundus in North America. Furthermore, we also found a reduction in the standard deviation of temperatures at D. rotundus capture locations during the last century, expressed as more consistent, less-seasonal climate in recent years. These results elucidate an association between D. rotundus range expansion and a continental-level rise in rabies virus spillover transmission from D. rotundus to cattle in the last 50 years of the 120-year study period. This correlative study, based on field observations, offers empirical evidence supporting previous statistical and mathematical simulation-based studies reporting a likely increase of bat-borne diseases in response to climate change. We conclude that the D. rotundus rabies system exemplifies the consequences of climate change augmentation at the wildlife–livestock–human interface, demonstrating how global change acts upon these complex and interconnected systems to drive increased disease emergence.

Background Neglected tropical diseases affect the most vulnerable populations and cause chronic and debilitating disorders. Socioeconomic vulnerability is a well-known and important determinant of neglected tropical diseases. For example, poverty and sanitation could influence parasite transmission. Nevertheless, the quantitative impact of socioeconomic conditions on disease transmission risk remains poorly explored. Methods This study investigated the role of socioeconomic variables in the predictive capacity of risk models of neglected tropical zoonoses using a decade of epidemiological data (2007–2018) from Brazil. Vector-borne diseases investigated in this study included dengue, malaria, Chagas disease, leishmaniasis, and Brazilian spotted fever, while directly-transmitted zoonotic diseases included schistosomiasis, leptospirosis, and hantaviruses. Environmental and socioeconomic predictors were combined with infectious disease data to build environmental and socioenvironmental sets of ecological niche models and their performances were compared. Results Socioeconomic variables were found to be as important as environmental variables in influencing the estimated likelihood of disease transmission across large spatial scales. The combination of socioeconomic and environmental variables improved overall model accuracy (or predictive power) by 10% on average (P < 0.01), reaching a maximum of 18% in the case of dengue fever. Gross domestic product was the most important socioeconomic variable (37% relative variable importance, all individual models exhibited P < 0.00), showing a decreasing relationship with disease indicating poverty as a major factor for disease transmission. Loss of natural vegetation cover between 2008 and 2018 was the most important environmental variable (42% relative variable importance, P < 0.05) among environmental models, exhibiting a decreasing relationship with disease probability, showing that these diseases are especially prevalent in a

Indonesia has recently announced the relocation of the country’s capital from the island of Java to the island of Borneo. Java’s limited sustainability is evident from extreme deforestation, biodiversity loss, intense road traffic, and high pollution. Jakarta, Indonesia’s current capital on Java, is both one of the most densely populated cities in the world, and one of the most threatened by climate change. Negative impacts upon Jakarta due to climate change could affect its economy, human health, and biodiversity. These negative factors could be transferred from Jakarta to Borneo, at least partially, during the early stages of moving the capital. Borneo currently houses one of the largest remaining forested areas in Southeast Asia and is considered to be a biodiversity hotspot. However, despite its biological importance, ~30% of Borneo has been deforested in the last 50 years. Borneo also has high rates of biological endemism, but some of its emblematic endemic species are critically endangered. We argue that Indonesia’s announcement to re-locate the capital is one of the first examples of systematic, mass migration expected to occur linked to the climate change crisis. Unless a multidisciplinary and sustainable transition is implemented, the establishment of a new capital in Borneo could be a major biodiversity catastrophe. Research is urgently needed in Borneo to determine the status quo of its ecosystems for a largescale, before-after assessment of the human-footprint to better understand processes in the Anthropocene.

Indonesia has recently announced the relocation of the country’s capital from the island of Java to the island of Borneo. Java’s limited sustainability is evident from extreme deforestation, biodiversity loss, intense road traffic, and high pollution. Jakarta, Indonesia’s current capital on Java, is both one of the most densely populated cities in the world, and one of the most threatened by climate change. Negative impacts upon Jakarta due to climate change could affect its economy, human health, and biodiversity. These negative factors could be transferred from Jakarta to Borneo, at least partially, during the early stages of moving the capital. Borneo currently houses one of the largest remaining forested areas in Southeast Asia and is considered to be a biodiversity hotspot. However, despite its biological importance, ~30% of Borneo has been deforested in the last 50 years. Borneo also has high rates of biological endemism, but some of its emblematic endemic species are critically endangered. We argue that Indonesia’s announcement to re-locate the capital is one of the first examples of systematic, mass migration expected to occur linked to the climate change crisis. Unless a multidisciplinary and sustainable transition is implemented, the establishment of a new capital in Borneo could be a major biodiversity catastrophe. Research is urgently needed in Borneo to determine the status quo of its ecosystems for a largescale, before-after assessment of the human-footprint to better understand processes in the Anthropocene.