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We highlight the complexities in estimating the valuation effects of board gender quotas by critically revisiting studies of Norway’s pioneering board gender-quota law. We use the short-run event study of Ahern and Dittmar [Ahern KR, Dittmar A (2012) The changing of the boards: The impact on firm valuation of mandated female board representation. Quart. J. Econom. 127(1):137–197] to illustrate (1) the difficulties in attributing quota-related news to specific dates, (2) the need to account for contemporaneous cross-correlation of stock returns when judging the statistical significance of event-related abnormal stock returns, and (3) the fundamental difficulty of separating quota-induced valuation effects from the influences of firm characteristics and macroeconomic events such as the financial crisis. We provide new evidence suggesting that the valuation effect of Norway’s quota law was statistically insignificant. Overall, our evidence suggests that, at the time of the Norwegian quota, the supply of qualified female director candidates was high enough to avoid the negative consequences of the quota highlighted previously in the literature. This paper was accepted by Renee Adams, finance.

We explore the determinants and value implications of publicly traded real estate companies converting to real estate investment trusts (REITs), which we term REITing, and publicly-traded REITs giving up their REIT status, termed de-REITing. Non-REIT real estate firms that pay relatively high dividends and have high income tax ratios are more likely to convert to a REIT; while REITs that have lower pretax incomes, dividend adjusted operating cash flows, and higher leverage ratios are significantly more likely to de-REIT. REITing generates significant positive abnormal returns (ARs) around the REITing announcement. These positive ARs are concentrated in firms with higher income tax liabilities and firms paying larger dividends pre REIT-conversion. De-REITing announcements generate significant negative ARs, which are mitigated when the de-REITing firm has low potential tax liabilities, or when the firm is cash flow constrained with respect to its dividend payment. Based on these results, we argue that the degree to which REITing (de-REITing) decisions are value generating (destroying) depends on the magnitude of potential tax and dividend implications. We also examine the longer run valuation effects of REITing and de-REITing decisions and find no evidence of a reversion of the short-run announcement effects.

At the onset of the COVID-19 economic crisis, as in other crisis episodes, we observed a rapid appreciation of "safe haven" currencies. We quantify currency-induced balance sheet valuation effects for aggregate external positions as well as for broadly defined asset classes for the first quarter and the full year 2020. To do so, we use new data on the currency composition of cross-border assets and liabilities for 46 countries. In contrast with past financial crises, many emerging markets did not experience losses on their aggregate external balance sheets despite facing a domestic currency depreciation. This was partly due to currency-induced valuation gains on equity positions offsetting losses on debt positions, and partly due to reduced currency mismatch on their external debt positions. We conduct the stock-flow reconciliation of net international investment positions to measure overall valuation effects and compute the proportion that is due to changes in currency values. For about half of the countries in our sample, currency-induced valuation effects were substantial, representing over 50 percent of total valuation effects in 2020Q1 and the full year 2020.

Understanding differences in business cycle phenomena between Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) and industrialized countries has been at the center of recent research on macroeconomic fluctuations. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the importance of certain credit market imperfections in different EMEs. To this end, we develop a small open economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework featuring both permanent and transitory productivity shocks, differentiated home and foreign goods, and endogenous exchange rate movements. Furthermore, our model incorporates liability dollarization as a particular form of financial frictions in EMEs. In this vein, we account for the fact that emerging markets traditionally have had difficulties in borrowing in domestic currency on international capital markets and thus allow for valuation effects in our analysis. We estimate our model using Bayesian techniques for a number of EMEs and thereby control for potential heterogeneity across countries. Contrary to previous studies in this strand of the literature, we include a (vector-)autoregressive measurement error component to capture off-model dynamics. Regarding business cycles in emerging markets, our main findings are that (i) even though we incorporate financial frictions in the framework, trend shocks are the main determinant of macroeconomic fluctuations, (ii) accounting for liability dollarization ameliorates the model fit, and (iii) valuation effects on average stabilize changes in the net foreign asset position.

We provide evidence on two qualitative characteristics of financial reporting errors deemed immaterial by management (immaterial errors) and benchmark these characteristics against those of material errors corrected by restatements. With regard to relevance for equity valuation, our results suggest that investors find immaterial errors relevant, in particular those that are more severe, with valuation effects smaller than those associated with restatements disclosed in form 8-K. With regard to predictive ability for reporting quality, we find immaterial errors are informative about financial reporting reliability because they indicate increased propensities for three outcomes known to be associated with negative economic consequences: future material errors, immaterial errors and material weakness assessments. The predictive ability of immaterial errors for reporting quality is not qualitatively different from that of material errors. Viewed in the context of previous research on material errors, our results support the view that immaterial errors are informative about reporting quality; this qualitative characteristic is not part of the authoritative guidance management applies in assessing materiality of financial reporting errors. Our analysis informs debates about materiality assessments from an investor perspective.

This paper aims at estimating the impact of Quantitative Easing (QE) implemented by the ECB on external assets and liabilities recorded in the International Investment Position (IIP). Indeed, monetary policy affects the prices of securities and exchange rates, as well as international capital flows. These movements affect the IIP and can trigger important global imbalances and financial stability issues. Our analysis focuses on France. We find that QE affected all the items composing its IIP. Announcements played a stronger role compared to amounts purchased. We also decompose changes in the IIP into flows and valuation effects and show that the latter was the most reactive to the programme. Finally, we quantify the overall effect by establishing counterfactual scenarios in the absence of QE. The strong impact observed initially was rapidly counterbalanced; suggesting an over-adjustment phenomenon at the beginning of the programme.

This paper discusses the concepts and measurements of valuation effects of a nation’s external wealth, which has become an important research focus in light of the deepening globalization. Further, it clarified the connections and heterogeneity between valuation effects and three related concepts, dark matter, excess return and financial adjustment, under a uniform theoretical model. It argues that although closely related, these concepts are different in definitions and measurements and the misuse of them in recent research has led to misunderstanding, ambiguity, and confusion. The detailed analysis in this paper will benefit the subsequent academic and policy research by solidifying the conceptual framework in the field of studies.

This study investigates whether a target firm's corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance creates value for shareholders. Our results indicate that target CSR performance that is stronger than that of the acquirer firm yields higher premiums for target shareholders. In addition, the positive valuation effect of CSR is more pronounced when well‐governed acquirers conduct the takeover. Our evidence is robust to several sensitivity tests. These results imply that favorable market reactions to the target's CSR are due to the market expectation that well‐governed acquirers reward the target's shareholders with a fair CSR value in merger and acquisition (M&A) transactions. Consistent with the stakeholder theory that maximizes stakeholder value, investing in CSR creates value in M&A transactions.

We investigate the valuation effects of debt issues on the issuing firms’ common stock using a sample of Turkish issuers. For the sample of non-financial firms, we find no significant wealth effects for debt issues around the announcement dates. However, market reactions are more positive when information asymmetry between firm managers and outside investors is low, agency costs are high, and when debt issues are likely to carry positive information about firms’ prospects. These results support pecking order, signaling and agency theories of capital structure. In additional tests, we find positive market reactions to debt issue announcements of financial firms.

Aim: We analyze stock market reactions to merger and acquisition announcements for firms in Europe and contribute to the literature by providing empirical evidence how the decisions with respect to alternative financing sources (equity or debt) and the methods of payment (cash or stock) affect the magnitude of the valuation effects. Research design: An event study methodology is applied to 717 M&A transactions. We analyze the size of the cumulative abnormal returns using the financing sources and payment methods and other variables as the relevant determinants. Findings: The cumulative abnormal results suggest that target shareholders and bidder shareholders in private deals benefit from mergers and acquisitions. The effect found is centered around the announcement date, making our findings consistent with market efficiency. Debt financed deals outperform equity financed deals and cash paid M&A outperform stock paid M&As, due to information asymmetry, signaling and agency effects. Originality: This study adds to our understanding of the relevance of the financing sources and the payment methods for mergers and acquisitions in Europe. Implications: This study may help practitioners to better assess the valuation effects of alternative financing sources and payment methods when acquiring other firms. JEL: G32, G34

Based on the three functions of currency internationalization, including exchange medium, pricing currency and foreign reserve, this paper explores how the degree of currency internationalization a...

We extend the existing literature on related party transactions (RPTs) from a domestic to an international dimension and uncover new evidence of resource transfer by foreign direct investment (FDI) firms to their foreign affiliates through overseas RPTs. Employing uniquely‐constructed RPT data of Korean firms during 2005–2010, we find significantly negative effects of such transactions on the values of parent firms, which are further confirmed from two‐stage least square regressions after correcting for the endogeneity issue. Further analyses reveal that negative valuation effects are most pronounced for overseas RPTs of FDI firms which are in the high‐tech industry and whose foreign affiliates are in emerging countries. These results indicate that high‐tech FDI firms use RPTs as a means of transferring resources to support their poorly‐performing foreign affiliates in emerging countries, especially surrounding the global financial crisis. We find little evidence that FDI firms use RPTs to withdraw or tunnel investment returns of foreign affiliates back to the home country for the benefits of investing firms during our sample period.

Speed and strength are two important but understudied dimensions of alliance portfolio (AP) expansion. AP expansion speed can expedite learning but also leads to time-compression diseconomies and escalating costs; AP expansion strength mitigates this effect but limits the benefits of faster expansion. We examined the effect of AP expansion speed on firm valuation and found that expansion speed has an inverted U-shaped effect for exploratory APs and a U-shaped effect for exploitative APs. We also found that expansion strength moderates the effect of expansion speed on firm valuation, causing both curves to flatten. These hypotheses are generally supported by a longitudinal investigation of 84 Indian technology firms from 2003 to 2014 (totaling 900 firm-year observations).

At the onset of the COVID-19 economic crisis, as in other crisis episodes, the flight to safety was accompanied by a rapid appreciation of “safe haven” currencies. We quantify currency-induced balance sheet effects for total external positions as well as for individual asset classes using new data on the currency composition of cross-border stocks for 48 countries for the first quarter as well as for the full year 2020. We also conduct the stock-flow reconciliation of net international investment positions to measure overall valuation effects. We show that for many countries currency-induced valuation gains mitigated losses that resulted from declining asset prices in the first quarter of 2020. Moreover, for countries with excess capital out flows during this period, the impact on external balance sheet positions was mitigated by valuation gains. This is because, in contrast with past financial crises, many emerging markets did not experience negative external balance sheet effects from their currency depreciation, partly due to currency-induced valuation gains on equity positions offsetting losses on debt positions, partly due to reduced currency mismatch on their external debt positions.

Aim: In this study, we examine the changes in default risk of the bidder over the course of a merger or acquisition. The data set consists of 531 deals in which the acquirers are European firms. We employ a general set of determinants to analyse the change in default risk and extend the literature by providing new empirical evidence for the European capital market. Research design: Abnormal returns are analysed to provide preliminary insights into the merger induced valuation effects. All hypothesized relationships on the changes in default risk are tested via a regression analysis. We differentiate these results further by analysing which factors determine the increase in default risk. Findings: Previous research on this issue reported mixed results. The main finding of our empirical analysis is that, on average, mergers and acquisitions of European bidders significantly increase default risk during the post-merger period. Originality: This study adds to the mergers and acquisitions literature for European bidders and targets. The empirical findings suggest that some observed relationships and determinants are different in Europe than in the United States. Implications: This research introduces a default risk model that could be applied to predict bidder performance subsequent to a merger or acquisition by analysing possible changes in default risk of the bidder. It also provides some possible explanations for the average increase in default risk. This study may help practitioners to better assess the potential risks when acquiring other firms. Key words: mergers & acquisitions, abnormal returns, default risk, Europe JEL Codes: G32, G34

We return to the long-standing question ‘Who owns the assets in a defined benefit pension plan?’ Unlike earlier studies, we condition the market's assessment of implicit property rights on the sponsoring firm's financial health. Valuations of financially strong firms, and those that are strengthening, are more responsive to pension plan funding. For these firms, each extra dollar of net plan assets is valued at between $0.50 and $1.00. In contrast, for weak and weakening firms, valuation effects are statistically indistinguishable from zero. This result is consistent with the higher likelihood that they will renege on their pension obligations.

We show that the acquiring firm's idiosyncratic stock return volatility (sigma) is an important determinant of the selection and perceived valuation effects of earnouts in Mergers and Acquisitions (M&As). Earnout‐based M&As are more often announced by high‐sigma acquirers (nearly 40% of all earnout‐based M&As), yet the documented higher risk‐adjusted returns accrued to acquirers in earnout‐based M&As, relative to M&As settled in cash, stock or mixed payments (the earnout effect), appear in deals announced by low‐sigma acquirers (nearly 20% of all earnout‐based M&As). High‐sigma acquirers employing earnouts appear to break even, or even experience losses, relative to their counterparts employing single up‐front payments. These results are confirmed based on a quasi‐experimental design through which the earnout effect is measured in isolation. We argue that in M&As announced by high‐sigma acquirers, the earnout effect is potentially elusive due to the presence of an acquirer‐specific information revelation effect, resulting from the heightened extent of information asymmetry between (small) acquirers’ managers and outside investors. On the contrary, the use of earnouts in M&As announced by low‐sigma (large) acquirers, whereby the acquirer‐specific information revelation effect is likely negligible, sends a strong signal for value creation that also prevents investors from inducing a size‐related discount.

Purpose On May 17, 2012, the social networking company Facebook Inc. fixes its initial public offering (IPO) price at $38.00 a share. Over the next couple of months, contrary to expectations raised by previous IPOs, the stock price crashes more than 50 per cent. Immediately, the question arises whether the issuer’s or the stock market’s pricing of the share are in line with the firm’s fundamentals. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to determine the company value in close proximity to the date of IPO. Design/methodology/approach As Facebook is an archetypal internet growth company, it is evaluated using the Schwartz/Moon model. This approach features significant advantages over traditional valuation models and more adequately captures the characteristics of growth companies. Findings As of September 30, 2012, the fundamental share value determined was $26.53, which exceeded the market price per share of $22.66 by 22.48 per cent, but was far less than the IPO stock price. The subsequent sensitivity analysis reveals the robustness of the result to key input parameters. Originality/value The results raise doubts about the IPO price of Facebook. Furthermore, this paper is of value from a more conceptual perspective in that an extended version of the Schwartz/Moon model is provided. Beyond extensions previously discussed in the subject-based literature, the authors include stochastic interest rates (as an additional source of uncertainty) and investigate their valuation effects.

This study examines the purchase and sale of US bank branches. Large and unproductive banks with less capital sell branches to smaller and more efficient banks with more capital. I use an event study, and find a significant increase in value for both parties. These valuation effects are driven by slightly better operating performance, faster growth in loans, and a smooth transfer of purchased deposits for buyers and by improved operating performance and no substantial decrease in the growth of loans and deposits for sellers. Overall, the evidence shows that branch dealmakers operate efficiently by reallocating branches to better uses.

This study attempts to resolve the puzzle regarding the announcement effects of cash distributions. The introduction of taxes on dividend income since 2009 has led many Greek listed companies to seek alternative ways of distributing untaxable income, at personal level, to shareholders, mainly through the form of return of capital. Employing a unique dataset of 130 returns of capital and a control sample of 890 dividends between 2000 and 2014, we investigate the stock price behaviour surrounding the announcement of these cash distributions. The results from the event study reveal a statistically significant market reaction on the announcement day for both cash distributions; however that of returns of capital was more than double compared to dividends (1.53% vs. 0.72%). The market reaction was even stronger when firms opted to distribute a dividend and a return of capital contemporaneously. Regression analysis delves into the determinants of the market reaction documenting that dividend or return of capital yield, firm size and profitability levels explain much of the stock price appreciation on announcement dates.

This article empirically studies the macroeconomic impact of valuation effects for a sample of 53 countries over 1980–2010. For high-income countries, the paper finds that valuation effects operate as a consumption risk-sharing channel. For emerging market economies (EMEs), the results depend on how valuation effects correlate with domestic consumption growth. Valuation effects act as a risk-sharing channel only if the correlation is negative, and are destabilizing otherwise. Consequently, the degree of risk sharing has improved in the former type of EMEs and worsened in the latter. Differences in the international portfolio composition between the two EME-groups explain this disparate experience.

This study presents a theoretical model that links chief executive officer (CEO) overconfidence to the value loss of corporate diversification. Consistent with the model's prediction, the findings show that diversified firms run by overconfident CEOs experience value loss compared to diversified firms run by their rational counterparts. Empirically, the value loss is economically significant and ranges between 12.5% and 14.1%. In addition, the model predicts heightened corporate refocusing activity by overconfident CEOs who pursued diversified investments in the past once realized returns fail to match initial expectations. The empirical odds of corporate refocusing decisions are 67% to 98% higher when past diversifications are undertaken by overconfident rather than rational CEOs. Another prediction of the model is that overconfident CEOs exhibit preference for diversified investments, especially in the presence of ample internal funds. This prediction is also strongly supported by the data. Overall, this study proposes CEO overconfidence as a unified and consistent explanation of why firms pursue value-destructive corporate diversification policies and later adopt refocusing policies aiming to restore value.

Money represents a cornerstone of human modern economies and how money emerged as a medium of exchange is a crucial question for social sciences. Although non-human primates have not developed monetary systems, they can estimate, combine and exchange tokens. Here, we evaluated quantity–quality trade-offs in token choices in tufted capuchin monkeys as a first step in the investigation of the generalizability of tokens as reinforcers, which is a potentially relevant factor underlying the emergence of money in humans. We measured capuchins' exchange preferences when they were repeatedly provided with 10 units of three token types yielding food combinations varying in quantity and quality. Overall, capuchins maximized their quantitative payoff, preferring tokens associated with a higher food amount, rather than showing violations of rationality. However, some individuals did not maximize their qualitative payoff, possibly because of conditional valuation effects or owing to the choice overload phenomenon, according to which too many options reduce the accuracy of choice. Our study supports the importance of comparative research to finely analyse the multiple components shaping the economic behaviours of other species, possibly to achieve a more comprehensive, evolutionary- and ecologically based understanding of human economic behaviour. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Existence and prevalence of economic behaviours among non-human primates’.

In this paper, I propose a theory that connects a Private Equity (PE) fund's valuation, a PE fund manager's expected ability and the likelihood of cross-border acquisitions. Using a model of costly-state verification, I show that an increase in a PE fund's valuation driven by economy-wide improvements raises the likelihood of a cross-border leveraged buyout (LBO) compared to a domestic LBO. Consistent with the model's key prediction, I find empirically that an increase in a PE fund's valuation, which captures the fund manager's expected ability, is associated with higher probability of cross-border acquisitions. The empirical estimates indicate a one-standard deviation increase in valuations, equivalent to approximately 5.2 percent of a fund's size, leads to at least an 11.9 percent increase in the predicted number of cross-border buyout deals compared to domestic LBOs.

This study examines the intertemporal nature of countries’ external adjustment by using two types of oil income shocks with different timings, namely, giant oil discovery news shocks and contemporaneous oil windfalls arising from the possible exogenous changes in the international oil spot price. Empirical estimates based on a large panel of countries from 1970 to 2011 are consistent with the intertemporal model. Net foreign assets hike immediately upon oil revenue shocks, but decrease in the first five years after oil discoveries, and then increase sharply after oil production starts. Meanwhile, the external adjustments upon oil shocks are largely through the current account channel, and valuation effects only partially stabilize the current account adjustment for oil revenue shocks. Moreover, oil discoveries attract a large amount of foreign direct investment inflow to share the risk of oil extraction, and oil revenue shocks significantly increase the net holdings in low-risk foreign debt assets. Our results indicate that risk-sharing may play an important role in country portfolio diversification.

The $669 billion Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) provides highly subsidized financing to small businesses. The PPP is a positive shock in financing supply to the small, highly constrained publicly listed firms in our sample and has average positive treatment effects. Yet, uptake is not universal. In fact, several firms return PPP funds before use, and curiously, experience positive valuation effects when they do so. These firms desire and the markets value the release from government oversight even if it means giving up cheap funding. The PPP is also a demand shock to the banks making PPP loans. Intermediary supply effects shape PPP delivery. Larger borrowers enjoy earlier PPP access, an effect that is more pronounced in big banks. The results have implications for policy design, the costs of being public, and bank-firm relationships.

This study examines the valuation effects of anti-money laundering (AML) enforcement actions and the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) economic sanction violations on U.S. financial institutions (FIs). Using a hand-collected sample of 308 enforcement actions issued between 2000 to 2018, results show that a civil money penalty (CMP) adversely affects a bank's value in the next quarter. Neither the magnitude, nor the type of AML-OFAC violation, and neither the bank's ability to deal with an enforcement action― as proxied for by efficiency ratios and governance mechanisms―are able to moderate the adverse effect of the CMP.

Merger control exists to help safeguard effective competition. However, findings from a natural experiment suggest that regulatory merger control reduces the profitability of corporate acquisitions. Uncertainty about merger control decisions reduces takeover threats from foreign and very large acquirers, therefore facilitating agency-motivated deals. Valuation effects are more pronounced in countries with stronger law enforcement and in more concentrated industries. Our results suggest that competition policy may impede the efficiency of the M&A market.

This paper studies the impact of the nonfinancial disclosure on firm value for a large sample of Indian firms, arguably emerging market with poor investor protections and legal enforcement. We proxy the nonfinancial disclosure by the Bloomberg score on the extent of a firm's Environmental, Social, and Governance disclosures, and find positive valuation effects associated with the nonfinancial disclosure. We find the nonfinancial disclosure is more valuable to standalone firms compared to business group firms. This paper shows that the positive valuation effects associated with the nonfinancial disclosure are attributable to lower cost of funds and higher operating cash flows.

This paper studies the impact of major ECB monetary policy announcements on the portfolio allocation of euro area fund investors, using daily data between 2012 and mid-2016, a period that includes a variety of unconventional measures. We distinguish between active portfolio reallocation, driven by redemptions or injections of investors, and passive portfolio rebalancing, triggered by valuation effects related to changes in asset prices and exchange rates. We find that, for this class of fund investors, policy announcements work mainly through valuation effects (the signalling channel), rather than via active reallocation (the portfolio balance channel). Notably, since the autumn of 2014, monetary policy shocks triggered large asset price and exchange rate effects and prompted a passive shift of euro area investors into riskier assets, in particular European and Emerging Market equity funds and out of bond funds.

We investigate the valuation effects of foreign exchange manipulation for seven systemically important banks that settled with regulators and legal authorities. The seven settlement banks suffer a total market value loss of $48 billion that far exceeds the $10 billion in regulatory and criminal fines. We attribute the difference of $38 billion to a market-imposed reputational penalty, which we define as the expected decline in the present value of future cash flows due to higher regulatory and financing costs and lower revenues. However, only five of the seven settlement banks experience reputational penalties that are higher than the assessed fines. Our evidence suggests that the market responds differentially based on the distinctive circumstances related to each institution’s involvement. We also find evidence of negative valuation effects for other competing global banks that are more pronounced for those banks that have greater systemic importance and control a greater share of the foreign exchange market.

The increase in cross-border assets and liabilities of nations with globalization, implies small asset price and currency movements create large wealth changes. The national net external position i...