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A multiple linear regression model has been used to investigate the factors that may have contributed to the wide year-to-year fluctuations in the catches of penaeid shrimp species in the coastal and estuarine waters of Sinaloa, NW Mexico. Temperature during the main reproductive period is shown to be the factor explaining the highest proportion of the interannual variability in the catch, 57% and 63% in the coastal and estuarine fisheries, respectively. Other significant factors are the duration of the closed season, plus, in coastal waters, sunspot number, and in estuarine waters, river discharge, which has a negative effect. In the estuarine fishery, the estimated total number of shrimp in the catch is positively correlated with accumulated temperature during the main reproductive period, but inversely correlated with the overall mean length of the domestic and trade size categories. The results suggest that environmental variables can be used to make catch predictions. Article from Marine Science Symposia Vol. 199 - "Shellfish life histories and shellfishery models". Symposium held in Moncton, New Brunswick, 25-29 June 1990. To access the remaining articles please click on the keyword "MSS Vol. 199".